Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory Ltd]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.08.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The BTCUSD pair currently demonstrates sensitivity to ongoing financial market conditions. Today, substantial volatility might be expected given the scheduled speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Alberto Musalem, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan, and Neel Kashkari, alongside Governor Michael Barr. Their statements often provide critical insights into the US monetary policy direction, directly influencing investor sentiment and, consequently, risk assets such as Bitcoin. Traders will closely monitor these speeches for hawkish or dovish signals, significantly impacting BTCUSD price movements.


Price Action
BTCUSD price action analysis in the H4 timeframe indicates a pronounced bullish movement, recently completing a sharp upward trajectory toward the key resistance zone around level 123108.61. Previously, the candles struggled and failed to break this significant price zone. However, the recent retracement below this level may be temporary, as the robust bullish sentiment from the preceding candles signals potential upward momentum. Should the price decisively break above the resistance at 123108.61, the Fibonacci expansion level 61.8 could serve as the next target.


Key Technical Indicators
MACD: The MACD histogram currently registers a level of 1469.238, while the signal line remains at 2217.962. This divergence suggests diminishing bullish momentum and cautions traders of potential short-term corrective movements, yet overall bullish bias remains intact. A bullish crossover above the signal line could reaffirm the bullish trend.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator demonstrates the K% line at 21.17 and the D% line at 51.09, indicating an oversold scenario in the short term. Given these levels, traders may anticipate a potential bullish reversal soon, reinforcing the possibility of price recovery and another bullish attempt.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the candles, highlighting short-term bearish pressure. However, considering the preceding bullish strength, the bearish move may be limited, and traders should watch for the dots shifting below the candles to confirm renewed bullish momentum.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate technical support is visible around the psychological level of 121396.62, aligning with recent pullback lows.
Resistance: The primary resistance remains firmly set at 123108.61, a critical pivot point where the previous bullish advances faced rejection.


Conclusion and Consideration
Technical indicators and recent price action in BTCUSD on the H4 chart suggest a cautiously bullish outlook. While short-term corrective pressure persists, especially as indicated by MACD and Parabolic SAR, stochastic conditions and recent bullish dominance imply the potential for a renewed upward move. Traders must remain alert to the upcoming Federal Reserve speeches, which could significantly impact market volatility and investor sentiment. Adjustments in risk management strategies are recommended during these high-impact news events.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.08.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.09.2025

 

Time Zone: GMT +3 
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD currency pair faces significant volatility today, driven primarily by speeches from key monetary policy figures in both the US and UK. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and Governor Michelle Bowman are scheduled to speak, potentially signaling future monetary policy and interest rate shifts, directly affecting USD strength. On the GBP side, BOE MPC Member Catherine Mann's speech will also be closely watched for insights on UK economic policy, adding another layer of volatility to the GBP/USD pair.

Price Action:
GBP-USD is currently exhibiting an overall bullish trend on the H4 timeframe. Recently, however, momentum has weakened considerably, with the pair entering a sideways movement. The current price action shows consolidation near a strong support zone, closely aligned with the ascending trendline and the lower Bollinger Band, signifying a critical area for potential bullish reversals or a breakout.

Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on GBP USD have flattened significantly, indicating sideways market movement and decreased volatility. Currently, the price is near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential rebound or a critical test of support. 
RSI (14): The RSI currently stands at 44, reflecting neutral momentum but slightly favoring bearish pressure. This indicates the possibility of continued short-term consolidation or a mild downward correction before resuming bullish momentum. 
Stochastic (10,6,3): The stochastic oscillator reads 29.18 and 22.58, indicating the pair is close to oversold territory. This suggests potential short-term bullish momentum once a reversal confirmation is established.

Support and Resistance: 
Support: Immediate robust support is located around the 1.3340 area, coinciding with the ascending trendline and the lower Bollinger Band. 
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands near the 1.3440 level, marking recent consolidation highs and a critical pivot area.

Conclusion and Consideration: 
Technical analysis indicates that GBP-USD is currently experiencing sideways price action within a broader bullish trend. Traders should closely monitor the strong support zone at approximately 1.3340 for potential bullish reversal signals. However, fundamental developments from today's central bank speakers could introduce high volatility, potentially disrupting current technical formations. Caution is advised due to the potential market impact from these high-profile speeches, as unexpected hawkish or dovish remarks could trigger sharp price movements.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.

FXGlory
10.09.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

GOLD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.10.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GOLD/USD (XAUUSD) market is trading cautiously as traders await key speeches from multiple Federal Reserve (FOMC) members, including Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, and Alberto Musalem. Their remarks are expected to provide further clues about the Fed’s stance on inflation, monetary tightening, and future interest rate decisions. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports later today could significantly influence the USD’s direction and, in turn, impact gold prices. Any hawkish tone or stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment data could strengthen the USD, putting temporary pressure on XAU/USD, while dovish commentary might support a rebound in gold. Overall, the market remains sensitive to Fed rhetoric amid lingering inflationary concerns and geopolitical risk factors that continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold.


Price Action:
On the XAUUSD H4 timeframe, the gold price has recently recorded a new All-Time High (ATH) at 4059.01 USD on October 8th, before entering a mild correction phase. The price has now moved below the psychological 4000.00 level, currently trading around 3974.68 USD. Despite this retracement, the pair remains within a clearly defined ascending bullish channel, maintaining an overall bullish structure that has persisted throughout 2025, with only one bearish month (July). The recent pullback has tested the 3940.00 support zone, which has held firm so far, indicating ongoing buyer interest. A break below this zone could expose the 3900.00 level as the next major support, while recovery above 4000.00 may resume the bullish leg toward retesting the ATH.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 9 & 17): The short-term MA (9) has slightly turned downward, reflecting the ongoing price correction, yet it remains above the MA (17), showing that the overall bullish structure is still intact. However, the narrowing gap between the two averages suggests potential short-term consolidation or a minor bearish crossover if downward momentum extends.
RSI (Relative Strength Index 14): The RSI(14) stands at 49.41, indicating a neutral market sentiment after the recent overbought conditions near the ATH. This mid-range value suggests equilibrium between buyers and sellers, leaving room for either a bounce from support or further correction if selling pressure strengthens.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD currently shows the main line at 23.749 and the signal line at 38.510, displaying a decreasing histogram. This signals waning bullish momentum and a possible short-term correction phase within the broader uptrend. Traders should monitor for any bearish crossover that might confirm further downside movement toward support.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The first key support is at 3940.00, which has already shown price reaction, followed by 3900.00 as the secondary and more crucial support zone.
Resistance: The nearest resistance remains at the psychological 4000.00 level, while the ATH of 4059.01 serves as the major resistance to beat for continuation of the bullish trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The XAUUSD H4 chart analysis suggests that despite the recent pullback below 4000, Gold remains in a strong long-term bullish trend, supported by an ascending channel structure and firm demand from global investors. However, short-term technicals hint at potential consolidation as the market digests recent gains and anticipates fresh guidance from upcoming FOMC speeches. Traders should closely monitor support at 3940.00 and the reaction to USD-related news today, as these factors could define the next directional move. A rebound above 4000.00 would likely reignite bullish momentum, while a sustained drop below 3900.00 could trigger a deeper correction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.10.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.13.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The NZD/USD currency pair is expected to experience moderate volatility today, as the US Dollar faces low liquidity due to the Columbus Day holiday, leading to potentially irregular market movements. Additionally, the ongoing IMF meetings in Washington DC may influence investor sentiment, especially as discussions center around global economic growth and inflation. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could gain some support from positive domestic data expectations, with the BusinessNZ Services Index and tourism arrival reports highlighting gradual recovery in the services and travel sectors. However, the global economic uncertainty and discussions from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson may provide further clues on US monetary policy, indirectly impacting NZD-USD price movements.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, the NZD/USD pair remains in a bearish trend, trading between two descending trend lines acting as dynamic support and resistance. The upper resistance line is notably steeper than the lower support line, confirming sustained selling pressure. However, the latest two H4 candles turned bullish and green, bouncing from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, signaling a short-term corrective rebound after touching key support. Moreover, all higher timeframes (H1, H4, Daily, and Weekly) have also printed green candles since the market opened, suggesting an early-stage correction phase or a temporary pullback within the prevailing downtrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 17): The short-term MA 9 (blue) is trading below the MA 17 (orange), with both moving downward, confirming the ongoing bearish structure. However, the gap between the two averages is narrowing slightly, which could indicate a potential slowing of bearish momentum if buyers maintain recent upward pressure.
Parabolic SAR (0.05 / 0.2): The Parabolic SAR dots remain positioned above the NZD USD price candles, which reinforces the current bearish bias. Until the dots flip below the candles, the primary trend remains downward. A reversal in SAR positioning would serve as an early confirmation of a potential bullish correction continuation.
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39.74, indicating a mildly oversold zone. The RSI line is showing signs of turning upward, reflecting possible early bullish momentum or a technical correction after extended downside pressure.
MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD main line (-0.001903) remains below the signal line (-0.001635), maintaining a bearish stance. However, the histogram bars are shortening, signaling weakening bearish momentum and potential convergence; often a precursor to a short-term bullish crossover if buying activity continues.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Key support is observed near 0.5714 – 0.5728, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and lower trendline, acting as the immediate defense zone for the bulls.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is located around 0.5767 – 0.5773, coinciding with the descending trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, representing a key level to watch for continuation or rejection of the corrective move.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD H4 technical and fundamental outlook shows the pair trading in a bearish trend but currently attempting a short-term bullish correction from the 0.618 Fibonacci support level. The alignment of green candles across multiple timeframes suggests improving buyer sentiment, though confirmation remains pending a breakout above the descending resistance trendline. Traders should monitor upcoming IMF discussions and any remarks from Federal Reserve officials, as they could shift USD strength and overall sentiment. Given the US Bank Holiday, market liquidity may remain thin, increasing the likelihood of irregular volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.13.2025

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.14.2025


Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s fundamental analysis for the EUR/USD currency pair is driven by key data releases and central bank commentary for both the US Dollar and the Euro. The Eurozone's economic sentiment is under the spotlight with the release of the highly anticipated ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the Euro Area, which acts as a leading indicator of economic health and can inject significant market volatility into the Euro (EUR) if actual figures diverge from the consensus forecast. Simultaneously, the US Dollar (USD) is set for volatility due to a series of high-impact speeches from top Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Christopher Waller, whose comments on the economic outlook and future monetary policy will be intensely scrutinized by Forex traders for clues on the Fed’s path for interest rates. Traders should also note the release of the US NFIB Small Business Index, which offers insight into the underlying strength of the US economy, creating a high-risk environment for the daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD price action on the H4 timeframe clearly reflects a dominant bearish trend that has been accelerating since mid-September's high, confirming a sustained downtrend. The price is consistently printing lower highs and lower lows, remaining well below a clear descending trend line which has repeatedly acted as a dynamic resistance level. Currently, the price has failed to hold above the psychological level of 1.0600 and is testing recent lows, suggesting that the sellers are firmly in control. The overall chart structure points to strong downward momentum with very little buying interest to counter the sustained pressure, reinforcing a bearish Forex trading strategy as long as the price remains below the critical trend line resistance.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Dots are placed consistently above the candles, definitively confirming the strong bearish trend on the H4 chart and reinforcing selling pressure. Upward moves are likely corrective.
Moving Averages (MA 9 & MA 17): The short MA 9 is below the long MA 17 and they are moving downward above the candles, confirming a powerful bearish crossover and acting as a dynamic resistance zone.
RSI (Relative Strength Index 14): The RSI is at 37.64, deep in bearish territory but not yet oversold, indicating room for the price to fall. It currently supports the downtrend continuation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence 12,26,9): The MACD line (−0.002161) is marginally above the Signal Line (−0.002257) in negative territory, suggesting a brief easing of downside momentum or consolidation, but the overall negative reading confirms dominant long-term selling pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The primary support to watch for this Forex trading analysis is located at the significant psychological and long-term horizontal level of $1.05390, a break of which would open the door for a continuation toward $1.04700.
Resistance: The immediate and crucial resistance level for the EUR/USD technical chart is $1.06620, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and the descending trend line.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The comprehensive EUR/USD H4 chart forecast indicates a strongly entrenched bearish trend driven by multiple technical confirmations, including the Parabolic SAR, the bearish crossover and alignment of the MAs, and the sub-50 RSI reading. The current price action suggests a potential pause or shallow retracement, but the overall technical structure heavily favors sellers. Consideration must be given to the high-impact USD and EUR news scheduled today, particularly the ZEW data and the numerous Fed speeches, which have the potential to override technical patterns and cause abrupt volatility. Forex traders should manage risk tightly, as any hawkish comments from the Fed or unexpectedly weak ZEW figures could fuel a sharp break below the current support, validating a continued bearish EUR/USD trading strategy.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
10.14.2025