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xau/usd aka... Go Gold!


Peter

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Gold Prices - World Gold Counsil Insights

  • Gold is typically unaffected by local financial crises or politically motivated conflicts; instead, it often benefits from them. This is because during a crisis, there's no risk of bankruptcy (as with publicly traded companies), significant increases in supply (as with fiat currencies), or changes in ownership (such as real estate). All of this means that investing in gold is currently considered one of the safest ways to preserve wealth.
  • Investing in gold is for everyone. A common stereotype about investing in this metal is that it requires significant capital, at least several thousand dollars. This isn't true anymore, as the dynamic development of the gold investment market has led producers to significantly expand their offerings, including products tailored to the needs of investors with limited funds or those seeking high liquidity. As a result, the gold investment market offers investors a plethora of opportunities - you can start investing in gold with as little as approximately $50. When investing small sums in gold, regularity is the key to success - regular expansion of assets in this metal can bring significant benefits in the future.
  • Investing in gold doesn't require specialized knowledge, chart analysis, or constant investment monitoring. The basic principle of investing in gold is "buy and hold." This is especially important during periods of increased volatility in financial markets, which typically accompany various crises - the price of gold not only remains resilient to negative economic events but consistently rises, significantly reducing risks in the long run.

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CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money Still Driving Prices

MARCH 23, 2024  

BY SCHIFFGOLD

The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will always be zero, but the report shows who is positioned long or short. Historically, Hedge Funds (Managed Money) dominate the price action in both Gold and Silver. That continues to be the case, but it’s possible that there could also be some Hedge Funds looking to stress the Comex by taking physical delivery.

Let’s take a quick look…

Gold

Below shows net positioning for the 5 main groups of futures holders. Net positioning is still lower than it was throughout most of 2020-2022. That is a good sign the market is not over-bought:

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Managed Money is in complete control of the price action, driving prices higher in recent weeks:

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A FINANCIALLY DEGLOBALIZED ERA

 CRESCAT CAPITAL  MARCH 26, 2024

Since the early 1980s, the global economy has rejoiced in a long period of significant cooperation among nations in supporting each other’s government financing needs. However, given the growing escalation of geopolitical tensions and the unraveling of longstanding trade partnerships, we believe that the present circumstances are likely to signify the end of an era defined by financial globalization.

With few choices to maneuver amidst today’s macro imbalances, developed economies are experiencing an exponential proliferation of their debt problem, propelled by both higher global interest rates and a pressing need for ongoing fiscal spending at extreme levels. Those seeking historical parallels would find that the current surge in sovereign debt issuances is unparalleled. Even during the 1940s, a period characterized by high levels of government debt, there was a degree of stability with the US monetary system anchored to gold. Today’s environment presents a stark contrast. Despite inflationary pressures pervasive in the economy, we are witnessing what might be described as the most undisciplined monetary and fiscal environment in history.

Central banks are left with no recourse but to assume responsibility for these challenges, acting as primary liquidity providers to address their own sovereign debt and asset valuation imbalances. Consequently, gold’s role as a universal, neutral asset with millennia of history as money, is experiencing a resurgence relative to US Treasuries for global central bank reserve accumulations.

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China Has Taken Over Gold Price Control from the West

BY GAINESVILLE COINS

THURSDAY, MAR 28, 2024 - 15:14

The PBoC on an Unprecedented Gold Buying Spree

Covert PBoC gold purchases can be computed by comparing the WGC’s data with what is officially reported by central banks.

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The difference between WGC’s estimated buying and reported buying, arising from the fact that the WGC’s numbers are based on field research, is “largely” created by the PBoC, two industry insiders shared with me.

My estimate is that the PBoC now holds 5,358 tonnes, which is 3,108 tonnes north of what’s officially disclosed at 2,250 tonnes

Estimated annual PBoC gold buying and total holdings. The Chinese central bank is buying gold like never before:

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An Explosive Gold Market

Chinese massive gold buying over the past two years have fundamentally changed the gold market. Whereas before 2022 Western institutional supply and demand was driving the price of gold and the price was more or less stuck to the "real yield" (10-year US TIPS interest rate), ever since the war gold has been less sensitive to real yields and follows its own path. This divergence, according to my analysis, has been created by China that has become one of the main driving forces of the gold price.

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Turning to the mainland

As the real estate sector in China began crumbling late 2021, Chinese people started changing their gold buying behavior and lost their long-standing sensitivity for the price. One explanation could be that because of capital controls Chinese investors have few places to go other than the local stock market, real estate, and gold. And when the former two are in the doldrums, which is currently the case, the latter attracts more attention.

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Shanghai gold premiums

Before 2022, these premiums fell when the price rose and vice versa. Now premiums stay positive during gold rallies. For our analysis we use the uncensored premium on the Shanghai International Gold Exchange, not the manipulated premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange

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zerohedge.com

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