capitalstreetFX Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 14 June 2023 AFTER WEAKER CPI, MARKETS RISE – S&P UP 0.7%. The market’s anticipated release of the week’s major economic data last night indicated that the Fed will likely pause today. Equity markets once again reacted strongly when the US CPI data came in slightly below expectations for both the monthly and yearly comparative readings. The Dow lagged once more, rising only 0.43% on the day, while the S&P and Nasdaq both reached new yearly highs, rising 0.69% and 0.83%, respectively. Even so, there were notable outliers, with the USDJPY rising by almost 1% on the day and US treasury rates returning to a somewhat better bid at the day’s close as the fixed income market became more cautious ahead of the Fed statement later today. THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FED In the upcoming trading sessions, the Fed won’t be the only topic of discussion, but let’s be honest, it will be! There aren’t many events scheduled for the Asian markets today, so they will likely continue the day’s strong momentum from the US. However, don’t be shocked if you see some profit-taking in all sessions before the major risk event. On the European Open, attention will once more be on the UK. After stronger job numbers yesterday, there were some significant changes, and today, the most recent GDP data will be announced; an m/m reading of +0.2% is anticipated. Before the FOMC announcement, we still must wait for the latest PPI data from the US session, which is expected to show a 0.2% gain for the Core PPI number and a 0.1% decrease for the PPI. WHAT HAPPENED IN THE ASIA SESSION? Recent figures on the New Zealand economy point to an improved scenario. The current account deficit decreased from -10.07 billion NZD to -5.22 billion NZD, outperforming the predicted -6.95 billion NZD performance and perhaps strengthening the NZD. The Food Price Index increased by 0.3%, which is less than the previous 0.5% increase and suggests that inflationary pressure is still present. This could lead to central bank initiatives that could affect the NZD. As a result, these numbers show that the NZD’s future is uncertain. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK GBPUSD https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/image-228-1024x609.png The bullish momentum on the GBP/USD chart at the moment suggests that the market is currently moving upward. The price could move upward towards the first resistance level at 1.2676 after a bullish bounce off the first support level at 1.2588. As overlap supports, the first and second support levels at 1.2588 and 1.2543, respectively, are noted for their importance in generating prospective buyer interest. On the upside, the overlap resistance at the initial resistance level of 1.2676 may serve as a barrier to price movements in the direction upward. A probable area of resistance is further supported by the fact that an intermediate resistance level at 1.2651 exhibits Fibonacci confluence with a -27% Fibonacci Expansion and the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection. TRADE SUGGESTION: BUY AT 1.26107, TP AT 1.26532, SL AT 1.25831 Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted June 16, 2023 Author Share Posted June 16, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 16 June 2023 CENTRAL BANKS DRIVE MARKET SURGE – DOW CLIMBS 1.25%. INTRODUCTION In an eventful trading day, global indices are set to soar, igniting a wave of optimism among investors. The European Central Bank’s anticipated rate hike has propelled the single currency to levels unseen in over a month, making it the focal point of a bustling day in the financial calendar. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause, stock enthusiasts flocked to the US markets during its first full session, with the Dow leading the way, surging by 1.26%. The S&P and Nasdaq closely followed suit, ending the day up 1.22% and 1.15%, respectively. With mounting positivity, the dollar experienced a notable dip of nearly 0.8%, while gold embarked on a robust rally after initially hitting multi-month lows. BANK OF JAPAN AND UPCOMING DATA The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled to reveal its latest rate update, accompanied by the customary statement and press conference, further intensifying an already action-packed week on the economic front. Given the considerable volatility witnessed this week, traders are bracing themselves for more sharp movements in the yen surrounding this event. The European session is expected to be relatively calm, but as the US session commences, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s announcements are bound to generate additional market activity. US SESSION HIGHLIGHTS U.S. Core Retail Sales experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, in contrast to the previous 0.4%. The Empire State Manufacturing Index, soaring from -31.8 to 6.6, surpassed projections and indicated a robust resurgence in manufacturing. US retail sales showed a modest gain of 0.3%, surpassing expectations of a 0.2% decline. The number of unemployment claims in the US remained steady at 262K, suggesting a stable job market, albeit without rapid improvement. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ASIAN SESSION As the Bank of Japan prepares to announce its monetary policy decisions, the USD/JPY pair hovers just above the 140.00 mark. A hawkish outcome would likely push the pair down to 139.30 before reaching 139.00. Conversely, a climb to 141.00, followed by a retest of the recent intra-day highs around 141.50, is conceivable for the Dollar Yen. THE JAPANESE YEN (JPY) KEY NEWS EVENTS TODAY Monetary Policy Statement BOJ Policy Rate BOJ Press Conference GBPUSD: BEARISH MOMENTUM SUGGESTS A NEGATIVE MARKET TREND https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/chart-1-1.png INTRODUCTION In the world of forex trading, the GBP/USD chart has recently been showing strong bearish momentum, indicating a market trend moving in the negative direction. Traders and investors need to pay close attention to the current market conditions. RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS Resistance Level 1: 1.2685 A potential bearish reaction may occur at this level, possibly leading to a subsequent slide toward the first support level. Support Level 1: 1.26952 This level holds significance as pullback support, attracting buyers and offering market stabilization. Resistance Level 2: 1.28467 The presence of the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection further emphasizes this level’s relevance as a potential resistance region. TRADE SUGGESTION For traders considering a position in GBP/USD, a sell trade can be considered with the following parameters: Entry Point: 1.27865 Take Profit: 1.27358 Stop Loss: 1.28142 By following this trade suggestion, traders can potentially capitalize on the current bearish momentum in the market. Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 22 June 2023 Central Bank Decisions And Testimony Drive Market Volatility Introduction In the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, the US markets experienced a wave of uncertainty. The reaction to Powell’s comments was mixed, with stock markets bearing the brunt of his aggressive stance, while currency markets perceived him as insufficiently hawkish, resulting in a decline in the US dollar. This article examines the repercussions of Powell’s testimony and explores the expected market volatility in the coming days. Markets React To Powell’s Testimony Nasdaq Bears The Brunt Of Powell’s Comments Powell’s testimony left a significant impact on the stock markets, with all major US indices closing in the red for the third consecutive day. Among them, the Nasdaq suffered the most, experiencing a daily decline of 1.21%. The decline was further exacerbated by a 5.5% drop in Tesla’s stock price. Meanwhile, the S&P and the Dow also experienced losses, with their values decreasing by 0.3% on the day. Currency Markets React Differently Contrasting with the stock markets’ response, currency markets had a different take on Powell’s testimony. The Euro surged to new monthly highs, marking a 0.63% increase for the day. In contrast, the US dollar index plummeted by 0.43%. This discrepancy highlights the divergent reactions from investors and emphasizes the complex dynamics of the financial markets. Anticipating Further Volatility Factors Contributing To Market Volatility The financial markets are bracing for another tumultuous day as investors face crucial central bank decisions, the release of tier 1 data, and additional testimony from Powell. The Asian market started off weakly following a disappointing day on Wall Street. With the absence of significant events on the calendar, the outlook for the Asian market remains pessimistic. However, once the European period begins, the situation may change, driven by significant rate calls from the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. The US session is also expected to witness heightened volatility, as the weekly unemployment report and Powell’s hearing before the Senate Banking Committee come into play. GBPUSD: Strong Movement and Key Levels Introduction In the foreign exchange market, the GBP/USD instrument is currently displaying a robust overall movement, indicating significant price action. Traders are observing the possibility of a brief decline followed by a bounce toward the first resistance level. The support and resistance levels play a crucial role in determining the potential trading opportunities for market participants. https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Picture1-1.png Analyzing Support Levels First Support Level: Overlap Support And Fibonacci Retracements The initial support level at 1.2681 holds great importance due to its combination of overlap support, a 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, and a 50% Fibonacci retracement. This confluence of technical indicators adds to the level’s significance and trustworthiness. Additionally, the second support level at 1.2536 provides strong overlap support, reinforcing its relevance in the market. Evaluating Resistance Levels First Resistance Level: Swing High Resistance On the upside, the first resistance level at 1.2823 acts as a significant barrier for the price. Instead of breaking past this level, it is more likely for the price to experience rejection near it. Traders should closely monitor the price action around this resistance level to identify potential trading opportunities. Trade Suggestion For GBPUSD Considering the technical analysis, a trade suggestion for GBP/USD is as follows: SELL at 1.2751 Take Profit (TP) at 1.2786 Stop Loss (SL) at 1.2730 Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted June 23, 2023 Author Share Posted June 23, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 23 June 2023 US Markets Display Mixed Sentiment Amid Debt Ceiling Crisis. Introduction In anticipation of new information regarding the debt ceiling crisis, the US markets experienced a mixed day yesterday. The Nasdaq saw a 0.5% increase, the S&P rose by 0.02%, and the Dow closed with a 0.42% gain. Despite the market’s closure, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy of the Republicans expressed confidence in ongoing negotiations, stating they are “on the right path.” However, he offered a few specific details to appease investors. Meanwhile, as Fed policymakers leaned towards a more hawkish stance, the dollar remained near recent highs, and short-term government rates maintained their strong position. The First Data Wave Hits The Markets The US markets failed to generate much excitement among traders as they sent conflicting signals, adding to the anticipation of a potentially hectic trading week. Today, we can expect to be inundated with several PMI statistics for both manufacturing and services, which will shape market sentiment. The European market will receive data from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone during the first few hours of trading. After the opening of trade in New York, the US Flash PMI numbers will be released. However, as the day progresses, the focus is likely to shift toward the US debt discussions, significantly impacting public opinion. INSIGHTS FROM THE ASIAN SESSION During the Asian session, Australia’s Manufacturing PMI matched expectations at 48.0. However, the Services PMI missed forecasts, declining from 53.7 to 51.8 compared to the previous reading of 53.7. The JPY Manufacturing PMI reached 50.8, surpassing expectations. Additionally, the Core CPI y/y for the Bank of Japan rose to 3.0%, exceeding both the expected value of 2.8% and the previous recording of 2.9%. These findings indicate the weakness of the Australian dollar and the strength of the Japanese yen. Implications For The European & US Sessions If the PMIs from Europe, the UK, and the US turn out to be significantly worse than anticipated, the Euro and the Cable may trade within a range prior to the release of corresponding manufacturing and services data. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling negotiations is likely to prevent any decline in the EUR or GBP caused by the data. GBPUSD: Possibility of Additional Higher Movement Introduction In the realm of currency trading, the GBP/USD chart is currently displaying an intriguing pattern. The price of this currency pair is positioned above a significant ascending trend line as well as the bullish Ichi Moku cloud. Such a configuration indicates the potential for additional upward movement, catching the attention of traders. https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Picture1-2.png Factors Pointing Towards A Bullish Bounce Several factors contribute to the likelihood of a bullish bounce off the initial support level at 1.2698. Firstly, there is a Fibonacci confluence, which denotes the convergence of various Fibonacci levels. This confluence is further supported by overlap support, a 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, and a 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Collectively, these elements present a strong case for a bullish scenario. Journey Towards The First Barrier Traders anticipate a possible surge in price towards the first barrier at 1.2726. This particular level holds significance as it is characterized by a multi-swing high resistance. When combined with the aforementioned circumstances, the presence of this barrier strengthens the overall outlook for a bullish trend. Trade Suggestion Based on the analysis and observations made, a prudent trade suggestion for traders would be to consider buying at 1.2703. Establishing a take-profit level at 1.2725 and setting a stop-loss order at 1.2689 would be advisable in order to manage potential risks effectively. EURUSD: Potential for Upward Growth Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted July 7, 2023 Author Share Posted July 7, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 07 July 2023 Wall Street Faces Losses Amid Labor Market Strength and Rate-Hike Concerns. Introduction In a recent turn of events, Wall Street has witnessed a significant decline as concerns about a potential interest rate hike intensified. The strong performance of the labor market has led to an increase in bond yields, fueling these apprehensions. This article delves into the details of the market downturn and sheds light on the implications of the robust labor market for the economy. Wall Street’s Sharp Decline Labor Market Strength Amplifies Worries The major indexes of Wall Street experienced a widespread sell-off on Thursday. This decline can be attributed to data that unveiled a robust labor market, surpassing expectations. The surge in private payrolls during June indicated a stable job market amid looming recession concerns. However, this positive report also amplified fears of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Historical Declines In The S&P 500 And Dow The repercussions of this data were evident as the S&P 500 registered its largest daily percentage decline since May 23. Similarly, the Dow faced its most substantial daily decline since May 2. These downward trends indicate the market’s response to the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Implications Of Labor Market Strength Stability Amid Recession Threats Despite concerns about a potential recession, the labor market has remained remarkably stable. The unexpectedly high growth in private payrolls during June has provided reassurance. It is worth noting that while there were fewer job postings in May, they were still at a relatively high level. These observations suggest that the job market continues to hold its ground amidst the prevailing economic uncertainties. The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma At its June policy meeting, the Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates. However, there is an expectation that the interest rates will be revised during their July meeting. The case for a rate hike was presented by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. The market’s reaction to this prospect was reflected in the increased bond yields and the subsequent sell-off. GBPUSD: Bullish Momentum Remains Strong Introduction In the current market scenario, the GBP/USD chart demonstrates a bullish momentum, with the price positioned above a significant ascending trend line. Additionally, the ascending trend line acts as a strong support level, further confirming the positive outlook. https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Picture1-6.png Ascending Trend Line Provides Support Support Level 1: 1.2682 The first support level at 1.2682 serves as pullback support, indicating a potential recovery in the near term. Traders and investors should closely monitor this level as it may offer a favorable buying opportunity. Support Level 2: 1.2605 Located at 1.2605, the second support level coincides with a 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement. This convergence of support levels enhances its significance and reinforces its role as a strong support zone. Resistance Levels Indicate Potential Barriers Resistance Level 1: 1.2750 The first resistance level at 1.2750 is challenged by a 78.60% Fibonacci retracement on the upside. This level presents a hurdle for the price to overcome and may slow down the bullish momentum temporarily. Resistance Level 2: 1.2847 Positioned at 1.2847, the second resistance level is characterized by high resistance with multiple swings. It represents a formidable barrier to the price and should be closely monitored by market participants. Trade Suggestion For traders considering potential trades in the GBP/USD market, a compelling suggestion is to initiate a buy position at 1.2745, with a take profit (TP) level set at 1.2819. To manage risk, a stop loss (SL) order can be placed at 1.2690. Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 13 July 2023 Investor Sentiment Soars as Nasdaq Records Over 1% Gain on Inflationary Pressures Easing. Introduction In a positive turn of events, the Nasdaq led Wall Street to a higher close as a recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated a decline in inflation, providing a boost to investor sentiment. This article provides an overview of the market update, highlights key statistics, and discusses the implications for different trading sessions. Nasdaq’s Rise And CPI Report Consumer Prices Show Smallest Annual Increase A recent study has revealed that consumer prices experienced their smallest annual increase in over two years, signaling a decline in inflationary pressures. This news instilled confidence among investors, leading to a surge in U.S. stocks on Wednesday. Nasdaq Takes The Lead The Nasdaq emerged as the frontrunner, registering a gain of over 1% during the trading session. This rise in Nasdaq was primarily driven by shares of large tech-related businesses, which are known to be sensitive to changes in interest rates. The Technology sector saw a notable increase of 1.3%. Impact On Interest Rates The statistics confirmed the predictions that the Federal Reserve might decide to leave interest rates unchanged. Earlier expectations suggested a 25 basis point increase at the upcoming decision meeting in July. GBP/USD: Bullish Momentum Signals Potential Rise The GBP/USD pair is currently displaying signs of bullish momentum, indicating a possible upward movement. However, there is a possibility of a bearish reaction near the first resistance level, which could result in a decline toward the first support level. https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/processed-c69f181b-e253-4fb7-a248-fe41bbffd483_xwRJ1zU1.jpeg First Support Level: 1.3003 The first support level at 1.3003 serves as pullback support and offers potential price stability. Traders should watch this level closely as it may act as a support and prevent further decline. Second Support Level: 1.2938 Situated at 1.2938, the second support level is an overlap support that could potentially avert a deeper decline. Traders should monitor this level as it holds importance in supporting the price. First Resistance Level: 1.3061 On the upside, if the price rises, it may encounter resistance at the first level, which is at 1.3061. This pullback resistance level is reinforced by a Fibonacci confluence, combining a 78.60% Fibonacci projection and a 161.80% Fibonacci extension. Second Resistance Level: 1.3146 The second resistance level at 1.3146 is considered a swing-high resistance. If the market surpasses this level, it might pose a significant barrier to further price gains. TRADE SUGGESTION: Entry: Buy at 1.3061 Take Profit: 1.3146 Stop Loss: 1.2993 EUR/USD: Positive Trajectory Points To Potential Rise Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 Weekly Technical Analysis & Price Market Strategy- 15 July 2023 CPI Report, Retail Sales, and Employment Change: Key Events to Impact Global Markets. Welcome to our comprehensive market report for the upcoming week. In this analysis, we will provide you with valuable insights and expert analysis of the key events that will shape the global financial landscape. Our aim is to equip you with the knowledge necessary to make informed decisions and navigate the dynamic world of finance successfully. The coming week presents a plethora of significant economic indicators and corporate announcements that will have a profound impact on various markets. We will closely examine the outcomes of these events to provide you with a clear understanding of their implications. Our team of experts has conducted meticulous research to ensure that you receive accurate and timely information. Let’s delve into the highlights: On July 19, 2023, the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United Kingdom will be released. This crucial economic indicator measures the change in prices of goods and services in a basket of consumer items. The outcomes of this report have far-reaching implications for the British pound (GBP) and its associated currency pairs. By carefully analyzing the CPI data, we can discern potential bullish or bearish trends in the GBP. Scheduled for July 18, 2023, the Retail Sales report for the United States will provide a comprehensive overview of consumer spending, a critical driver of economic activity. By examining the change in the aggregate value of sales at the retail level across the country, we can gain valuable insights into the health of the U.S. economy. The results of this report will exert a significant impact on the U.S. dollar (USD) and its related pairs, guiding trading decisions. Top Commodities in the Coming Week GOLD https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Picture2-14.png GOLD is currently trading in an upward channel, indicating that an upside movement may be expected in the coming days. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57.2, which is in the bullish zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also in the bullish zone, with the MACD line and the signal line crossing each other. The Bollinger Bands are currently at $1,864.27, which is in the neutral zone. On the daily chart, gold is trading just above the 200-day moving average, which could provide support in case of a market decline. However, a break below the 200-day moving average could lead to a more significant sell-off. Here are some key levels to watch in the near term: Support: $1,962.04 Resistance: $1,954.72 Trade Suggestion: BUY at $1,964.23, Take Profit at $1,989.75, Stop Loss at $1,941.62 Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted July 17, 2023 Author Share Posted July 17, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 17 July 2023 S&P 500 Sees Strong Weekly Gains Despite Banking Sector Woes. Introduction In this market update, we’ll take a look at the recent performance of the S&P 500, the impact of banks on the index, and the happenings in the Asia session. Additionally, we’ll discuss the implications for the Europe & US session, focusing on crude oil prices and the Euro. Finally, we’ll examine the current state of the Australian Dollar and the outlook for oil. Let’s dive in! S&P 500 Weekly Performance Despite a slight decline on Friday, all three major U.S. stock indexes, including the S&P 500, posted significant weekly gains. While banks and financial equities were primarily lower on the day due to quarterly reports, the overall market showed strength. UnitedHealth Group’s stock rise helped offset some of the dips, following its stronger-than-expected earnings. However, the S&P 500 banking index experienced a 0.9% loss. JPMorgan Chase shares increased by 0.6%, while Wells Fargo saw a decrease of 0.3%. Despite higher quarterly earnings, the big banks expressed the need to increase their reserves for potential losses on commercial real estate loans. The most negatively affected sectors on the benchmark index were energy, down 2.8%, and financials, down 0.7%. Asia Session Highlights During the Asia session, China released several important statistics, including GDP results, industrial production, and the unemployment rate. While the annual growth rate of the GDP was 6.3% YoY, slightly lower than the predicted 7.3%, the quarterly growth rate of 0.8% exceeded expectations of 0.5%. Industrial production expanded by 4.4% YoY, surpassing the estimated 2.7%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.2%. Overall, the readings were stronger than the corresponding forecasts. GBPUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions Introduction In this section, we will analyze the technical indicators and trade suggestions for GBPUSD (British Pound against the US Dollar) in the foreign exchange market. By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, we aim to provide valuable insights for traders. https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/23-07-17_02-52-53_GBPUSD.png Exponential Moving Average (EMA) EMA 5: Buy Sentiment The 5-day EMA for GBPUSD stands at 1.3088, suggesting a buying sentiment. EMA 20: Buy Indication The 20-day EMA displays a value of 1.2976, reinforcing a buy indication. EMA 50: Buy Recommendation With a value of 1.2845, the 50-day EMA aligns with a buy recommendation. Simple Moving Average (SMA) SMA 5: Sell Sentiment The 5-day SMA shows a value of 1.3101, indicating a selling sentiment. SMA 20: Buy Stance The 20-day SMA records 1.2954, supporting a buy stance. SMA 50: Buy Indication The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2798, signifying a buy indication. RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 73.75, suggesting a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a neutral condition. Resistance And Support Levels Resistance: 1.3106 Support: 1.3078 Summary And Trade Suggestions Based on the technical analysis, GBPUSD presents a buy outlook. Traders may consider entering a long position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators. Trade Suggestion: Entry Point: 1.3132 Take Profit: 1.3162 Stop Loss: 1.3110 EURUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Suggestions Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted July 18, 2023 Author Share Posted July 18, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 18 July 2023 Tesla and Netflix Earnings Awaited as Wall Street Records Upward Momentum. Introduction In the latest market update, U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday as investors eagerly awaited the upcoming batch of quarterly results during the earnings season. Financial and technology firms played a significant role in driving the positive momentum. This news article will delve into the market update, providing insights into the earnings season and highlighting key events from the Asia session. Additionally, it will explore the implications for the Europe and U.S. sessions, focusing on the Dollar Index (DXY), the Australian Dollar (AUD), and the Kiwi Dollar (NZD). Let’s dive in! Wall Street Performance Wall Street witnessed a positive trading week, with U.S. stocks ending higher on Monday. The upward trajectory was propelled by advancements in financial and technology companies. Notable companies, such as Tesla (TSLA.O) and Netflix (NFLX.O), are scheduled to report their earnings this week. Moreover, renowned banking institutions including Bank of America (BAC.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) are also expected to release their earnings reports following last week’s reports from competitors like JP Morgan (JPM.N) and Citigroup (C.N). The market is keenly observing the business outlooks of these companies, considering the anticipated 8.1% decrease in earnings for the quarter, as revealed by Refinitiv data. This projection represents a slight deviation from the initial 5.7% reduction forecasted earlier this month. Asia Session Highlights During the Asia session, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publicly disclosed the minutes of its July 4 monetary policy meeting. The board exhibited a hawkish tone, indicating its readiness to lower inflation. Despite a decline in domestic inflation, the labor market remains remarkably tight, and service inflation continues to be robust. Consequently, the Australian dollar experienced an increase, reaching 0.6840 upon the release of the minutes. Implications For Europe & U.S. Sessions Given the limited economic data releases expected during the Europe session, the afternoon could be relatively calm, with most currency pairs trading within a narrow range. Notably, the markets may experience potential shocks from significant events scheduled later in the day, including Canadian inflation data, U.S. retail sales, and industrial output statistics. GBPUSD: Technical Analysis Points Towards a Buy Outlook Introduction This news we analyzes the technical indicators for GBP/USD (British Pound/U.S. Dollar) and provides trade suggestions based on the findings. By examining various moving averages, oscillators, and support/resistance levels, traders can gain valuable insights into market trends and make informed decisions. https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/processed-c36db004-56b7-4cfa-8f82-53c8516c42a9_leHPK4uT.jpeg Exponential Moving Average EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.3083, indicating a Buy sentiment. EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.3002, reinforcing a Buy indication. EMA 50: With a value of 1.2871, the 50-day EMA aligns with a Buy recommendation. Simple Moving Average SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.3079, indicating a Sell sentiment. SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2998, supporting a Buy stance. SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2822, signifying a Buy indication. RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 68.94, suggesting a Buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a neutral condition. Resistance And Support Levels Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.3086. Support: The support level is observed at 1.3051. Summary And Trade Suggestions Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Buy outlook. Traders may consider entering a long position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators. Trade Suggestion: Entry Point: 1.3133 Take Profit: 1.3184 Stop Loss: 1.3091 EURUSD: Technical Analysis Points Towards A Strong Buy Sentiment Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted July 24, 2023 Author Share Posted July 24, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 24 July 2023 US Markets Await Federal Reserve Statement Amidst Lackluster Day. A Brief Break Before A Pivotal Week Last Friday, the US markets took a breather as investors prepared for a week filled with significant events, most notably the latest statement from the Federal Reserve. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all had a lackluster day, with the Dow and S&P ending nearly flat and the Nasdaq falling 0.22%. While the dollar continued to rise slowly, US treasuries saw only a marginal increase, and currencies remained within their established ranges. However, oil prices surged again, with WTI and Brent each rising by 1.8%. Meanwhile, gold experienced a dip, closing at around $1,960 per ounce. Central Banks To Drive Market Momentum Investors are gearing up for updates from three major central banks this week, and though few expect any shocks regarding actual interest rate shifts, many anticipate volatility leading up to these events as the banks provide crucial forward guidance. At the forefront is the Federal Reserve, where the odds of a 25bps rate increase stand at 99.8%. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its ultra-low-rate environment, and the European Central Bank is also predicted to deliver a 25bps increase. Traders in the foreign exchange market are ready to capitalize on future interest rate differentials. Asia Session: Key Levels And Potential Impact Resistance Challenges Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar index (DXY) currently faces a significant resistance level at 101.10, leading to a temporary dip below 101 during the Asia session due to selling pressures on the US dollar. Trading volume and activity have been relatively low during this period, but as European markets come online and overall volume increases, we might see a shift in dynamics. Europe & US Session Expectations Given the lackluster trading activity thus far, markets may receive a slight boost from the impending flash Composite PMI figures from Europe. Additionally, the US dollar might witness profit-taking after significant gains last week, potentially leading to a drop below 101 for the DXY. GBPUSD https://carigold.com/forum/attachments/23-07-24_01-16-02_gbpusd-png.643812/?watermark_date=1690199299 Exponential Moving Average EMA 5: A Strong Sell Signal The 5-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at 1.2861, suggesting a strong Sell sentiment in the GBPUSD currency pair. EMA 20: Reinforcing The Sell Indication The 20-day EMA displays a value of 1.2922, reinforcing the Sell indication for GBPUSD. EMA 50: Aligned With A Sell Recommendation The 50-day EMA aligns with a Sell recommendation as it stands at 1.2881 in the GBPUSD forex pair. Simple Moving Average SMA 5: Indicating A Sell Sentiment The 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) shows 1.2855, indicating a Sell sentiment for GBPUSD. SMA 20: Supporting The Sell Stance The 20-day SMA records 1.2979, supporting the Sell stance for the GBPUSD currency pair. SMA 50: Signifying A Sell Indication With a value of 1.2873, the 50-day SMA signifies a Sell indication in GBPUSD. RSI (Relative Strength Index) The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculated over a 14-day period displays a reading of 39.39, suggesting a Sell signal in the GBPUSD forex pair. Stochastic Oscillator The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Neutral condition for GBPUSD. Resistance And Support Levels Resistance: 1.2897 The resistance level for GBPUSD is identified at 1.2897, indicating a potential barrier for upward movement. Support: 1.2839 The support level for GBPUSD is observed at 1.2839, acting as a potential level of price support. Summary And Trade Suggestions Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators. Trade Suggestion: • Entry Point: 1.2806 • Take Profit: 1.2738 • Stop Loss: 1.2864 EURUSD Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 02 August 2023 Fitch Downgrades US Credit Rating: What Does This Mean for Investors? Introduction In a move that has sent shockwaves across the financial world, rating agency Fitch has downgraded the United States from AAA to AA+, causing a ripple effect in global markets. This downgrade, while not entirely unexpected, has put traders on edge and has already had significant implications on Asian markets. In this article, we’ll delve into the details of Fitch’s decision and its impact on different financial assets and regions. We’ll also explore the outlook for the upcoming sessions and discuss how central banks and key economic indicators might influence market sentiment. Fitch Downgrades The US: Initial Market Reactions As the New York market closed, the news of Fitch’s downgrade hit Asian markets hard, with opening rates in the negative territory. While the reaction has been relatively restrained so far, the downward trend in interest rates and stock futures, coupled with increased flows towards safe-haven currencies, suggests that further declines may be on the horizon once the Asian market resumes trading. Despite the Fitch report, US indices experienced a minor reprieve on the first trading day of the month, with the Dow up by 0.2%, the S&P down by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.43%. APAC Trading And Safe-Haven Assets In the wake of the Fitch downgrade, the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF) experienced increased buying in the foreign exchange market. On the other hand, the Australian dollar fell against the US dollar and other major currencies following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold interest rates steady earlier in the day. Interestingly, safe-haven assets like gold saw a rise in prices, trading 0.6% higher than the previous day’s low, as investors sought refuge amidst the uncertainty. Market Volatility And Key Data Releases As the market braces for a potentially tumultuous period, it’s essential to keep an eye on key economic indicators and central bank actions. Before the highly-anticipated job numbers report later in the week, markets are expected to remain volatile. The Asian session, followed by the European session, is relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic data, but once the US session begins, things might become more intriguing. Investors will closely monitor Wall Street’s response to the Fitch downgrade, as well as critical data releases, such as the US Crude Oil Inventory numbers and the ADP Non-Farm Employment data. GBPUSD Exponential Moving Average EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2799, suggesting a Sell sentiment. EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2836, reinforcing a Sell indication. EMA 50: With a value of 1.2855, the 50-day EMA aligns with a Sell recommendation. Simple Moving Average SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2785, indicating a Sell sentiment. SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2844, supporting a Sell stance. SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2922, signifying a Sell indication. RSI (RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX) The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 40.10, suggesting a Neutral signal. Stochastic Oscillator The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Neutral condition. Resistance And Support Levels Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2803. Support: The support level is observed at 1.2745. Summary And Trade Suggestions Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators. TRADE SUGGESTION: Entry Point: 1.2707 Take Profit: 1.2629 Stop Loss: 1.2766 EURUSD Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted August 4, 2023 Author Share Posted August 4, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 04 August 2023 Nervous Excitement Grips Traders as US Job Data Sparks Market Anticipation. In anticipation of important job numbers later today, investors meticulously analyzed changes in treasury yields, economic data, and profit reports yesterday. The day resulted in a mixed performance for US stock markets. The S&P experienced a slight decline of 0.25%, the Nasdaq, on the other hand, saw a modest rise of 0.08%, while the Dow ended the day lower by 0.19%. Sterling faced downward pressure after the Bank of England announced a 25bps raise, while the currency market had a relatively calm day, trading in narrow ranges but at the top of recent USD levels. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note traded as high as 4.198% throughout the session. After the market closed, Amazon shares soared as it anticipated substantially greater third-quarter revenues than expected. Meanwhile, Apple’s shares fell due to weaker iPhone sales. Important US Job Data Today Traders are keeping a close eye on the prestigious release for the financial markets today. Investors have long been focused on non-farm payrolls, now known as employment change, which has given many traders nightmares when unexpected prints took markets on rollercoaster rides they didn’t really need on a late Friday trading session. The Federal Reserve has stated that they are closely monitoring the data as they approach the end of their tightening cycle, adding even more significance to today’s event. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%, and the headline number is projected to climb by 205K. However, if one of these expectations is significantly off, traders may find themselves getting back on the rollercoaster, whether they want to or not! What Happened In The Asia Session? During the Board meeting in August, the potential for further tightening of monetary policy was considered. Nevertheless, it was ultimately concluded that keeping rates unchanged was the better course of action, considering the severe tightening of policy that has already occurred. Therefore, we might witness an increase in interest rates as the year draws to a close, and currency pairs like AUD/USD could eventually experience bullish momentum. What Does It Mean For The Europe & US Sessions? The most important news event today will be the Non-Farm Employment Change in the United States. This is expected to create another exceptionally volatile session for both currencies and gold prices. Expert Analysis: Forex And Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations GBPUSD Exponential Moving Average EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2709, suggesting a bearish sentiment. EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2772, reinforcing a bearish indication. EMA 50: With a value of 1.2822, the 50-day EMA aligns with a sell recommendation. Simple Moving Average SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2699, indicating a bearish sentiment. SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2787, supporting a bearish stance. SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2893, signifying a sell indication. RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 36.42, suggesting a negative signal. Stochastic Oscillator The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a positive condition. Resistance And Support Levels Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2761. Support: The support level is observed at 1.2679. Summary And Trade Suggestions Based on technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a bearish outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators. Trade Suggestion: Entry Point: 1.2640 Take Profit: 1.2538 Stop Loss: 1.2730 EURUSD Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted August 8, 2023 Author Share Posted August 8, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 08 August 2023 Nasdaq Lags as Dow Gains, Oil Prices Await API Stockpiles. Introduction In this dynamic market update, we delve into the recent surge in stocks, exploring the factors driving the rebound. We dissect the implications of Federal Reserve remarks on interest rates, the divergent CPI data between China and the US, and key news events shaping the Euro (EUR), Canadian Dollar (CAD), and Kiwi Dollar (NZD). As global markets oscillate, we provide insights into Asian, European, and US equities, along with commodity trends and significant news and data releases. Rejuvenated Stock Market Momentum Dow Delivers Over 1% Gain Despite Fed’s Rate Remarks The stock market kicked off the trading week with gusto as major US indices demonstrated resilience against the backdrop of Federal Reserve members’ pronouncements. While Fed officials indicated a need for prolonged high-interest rates and hinted at potential future hikes, the Dow managed a remarkable 1.16% surge. This uptick stands as the Dow’s most substantial gain in over seven weeks, underlining investors’ willingness to embrace risk despite the monetary policy narrative. The S&P followed suit, ascending 0.9%, while the tech-laden Nasdaq, though trailing, still posted a 0.61% upturn. US Treasury Yields Climb; Dollar Impact Muted While the Fed’s remarks spurred an uptick in US Treasury yields, the dollar’s response was subdued due to trading in narrow currency ranges. This curious reaction underscores the delicate balance of global currency dynamics, despite the underlying shifts in monetary policy outlook. CPI Data Takes Center Stage Divergent Market Perspectives: China Vs. US The impending week places substantial emphasis on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data releases, particularly from the two largest economies – China and the US. These contrasting economic giants showcase divergent market perspectives. China’s CPI data is set to debut during the Asian session, with an anticipated 0.4% year-on-year decline. Such a downtrend might compel Chinese authorities to consider defensive measures against the looming threat of deflation. In stark contrast, the US economy is projected to exhibit year-on-year growth surpassing 3%, coupled with a 0.2% month-on-month expansion. This robust growth may bolster the assertive language voiced by Fed officials, amplifying the discourse on monetary policy outlook. The interplay between these differing economic trajectories and corresponding policy actions fuels fertile ground for FX traders seeking profitable opportunities. Forex and Commodity Market Insights for Successful Trades GBP/USD: Navigating The Path Exponential Moving Average (EMA) EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2754, signaling a bearish trend. EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2767, reinforcing the downtrend. EMA 50: At 1.2808, the 50-day EMA aligns with a bearish sentiment. Simple Moving Average (SMA) SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2758, indicating a bearish market. SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2759, supporting the sell stance. SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2853, confirming the sell indication. RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI, calculated over 14 days, presents a reading of 43.45, suggesting a negative market sentiment. Stochastic Oscillator The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator points to a positive condition. Resistance And Support Levels Resistance: Identified at 1.2786 Support: Observed at 1.2730 Summary And Trade Suggestions Considering the technical analysis, GBP/USD showcases a bearish outlook. Traders may contemplate short positions based on indicators, moving averages, and oscillators. Trade Suggestion: Entry Point: 1.2674 Take Profit: 1.2584 Stop Loss: 1.2752 EURUSD: Unraveling The Dynamics Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted August 21, 2023 Author Share Posted August 21, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 21 August 2023 Euro’s Hidden Battle: Can it Rebound from 1.0845 Support or Face Further Decline? Last week proved to be a trying period for investors as mounting concerns manifested into tangible market risks. As the new week unfolds, investors are eagerly anticipating a more favorable outcome. Despite a relatively subdued weekend for the major US indices, the preceding damage has already been incurred. The S&P closed marginally down by 0.01%, the Nasdaq experienced a 0.2% dip, while the Dow managed a modest 0.07% uptick. The dollar’s streak of five consecutive weeks of gains has concluded, and US treasury rates have once again escalated. The benchmark 10-year note reached a 10-month pinnacle of 4.328%. Although the forthcoming week’s calendar is sparsely populated with events, investors are already casting their gaze towards the Jackson Hole symposium slated for week’s end, hopeful for fresh catalysts to rejuvenate sluggish markets. Gold Bears Triumph In A Challenging Market Gold’s Struggle Continues with a 9% Retreat Gold’s trajectory has been marked by adversity over the past few months, with its value plummeting by 9% from its previous all-time high reached in May. Recent days have seen this precious metal comfortably trading below the $1,900 threshold, leading traders to seek out new points for selling. While the dollar’s resurgent position has certainly contributed to this downturn, investors, accustomed to gold’s role as a haven during market downturns, find themselves puzzled by the dollar’s dominance. From a technical perspective, the shattering of recent support levels has paved the way for a potential plunge to $1,800, with initial resistance presenting itself at the $1,910 mark. Nevertheless, if risk-centric trades continue to dwindle, a resurgence is plausible as safe-haven assets eventually gain traction. Insights From The Asia Session Quiet Start with Limited Catalysts Monday offers little in the way of notable news stories that could serve as potential catalysts for currency pairs or commodities. Throughout the Asia session, the DXY fluctuated between 103.30 and 103.47, a pattern that might persist before Europe’s trading hours commence. Outlook For The Europe & US Sessions The paucity of News Awaits Europe The European schedule mirrors the dearth of impactful news, which could lead to major currency pairs trading within a constrained range until the initiation of the US session. The higher trading volume during the latter half of the day might provide a much-needed jolt for the markets. Expert Analysis: Forex and Commodity Market Insights for Profitable Trading GBPUSD: Expert Technical Analysis For Trading Success Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Insights EMA 5: The 5-day EMA stands at 1.2728, suggesting a potential Sell sentiment. EMA 20: The 20-day EMA displays 1.2723, reinforcing the idea of a Sell indication. EMA 50: With a value of 1.2747, the 50-day EMA aligns with a recommendation to Sell. Simple Moving Average (SMA) Trends SMA 5: The 5-day SMA shows 1.2728, indicating a Sell sentiment. SMA 20: The 20-day SMA records 1.2709, supporting a Buy stance. SMA 50: The 50-day SMA stands at 1.2738, signifying a potential Sell indication. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Insights The RSI, calculated over a 14-day period, displays a reading of 48.96, suggesting a positive signal. Stochastic Oscillator Analysis The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator suggests a Negative condition. Resistance And Support Levels Resistance: The resistance level is identified at 1.2756 Support: The support level is observed at 1.2681 Summary And Trade Suggestions Based on the technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders may consider entering a short position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators. Trade Suggestion: Entry Point: 1.2634 Take Profit: 1.2509 Stop Loss: 1.2735 EURUSD: Technical Analysis For Informed Trading Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 22 August 2023 Nvidia’s Meteoric Rise and HSBC’s Jaw-Dropping Prediction: Is This the End of Wall Street Predictions? In a whirlwind of market activity, tech giants like Nvidia have taken center stage, propelling the Nasdaq to remarkable gains, while investor attention remains fixated on the upcoming Jackson Hole conference. Let’s dive into the latest market updates and uncover the driving forces behind these significant movements. Nvidia’s Earnings Drive Nasdaq’s Upward Trajectory Nvidia’s impending earnings announcement sent ripples through the stock market, with its shares experiencing a notable surge on Monday. This surge played a pivotal role in boosting both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, leading them to close the day with more than a 1% increase. The positive momentum wasn’t confined to Nvidia alone, as other technology-related equities also enjoyed gains, painting a vivid picture of the tech sector’s impact on the broader market. Dow Jones Dips Amidst Market Fluctuations While the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were basking in their gains, the Dow Jones industrial average experienced a slight decline. This divergence in performance underscores the intricate interplay of various market factors that influence each index’s trajectory. Anticipation Builds Ahead Of Jackson Hole Conference Investor apprehension is palpable as the countdown to the Jackson Hole conference begins. Scheduled to take place in scenic Wyoming, this conference will bring together central bankers from around the world to discuss pivotal monetary policy matters. The stakes are high, given that the yield on 10-year Treasury notes recently reached levels reminiscent of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis. All eyes are on Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, as he prepares to take the stage on Friday to deliver a speech that could steer market sentiment. Tech Sector Takes The Lead: S&P 500 And Nasdaq Benefit The technology sector emerged as a key driver of market gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaping the most significant rewards. This surge was particularly pronounced in the SPLRCT, the technology sector’s S&P 500 subindex. Further underlining this trend, the semiconductor index (SOX) saw a notable uptick of 2.8%. NVIDIA’S SOARING STOCK AND HSBC’S BULLISH OUTLOOK A standout performer, semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia witnessed an impressive 8.5% increase in its stock value. This surge can be attributed, in part, to HSBC’s decision to raise its price target for Nvidia shares to a staggering $780—a figure that now ranks as the second-highest on Wall Street. Such an optimistic outlook from a reputable financial institution further solidifies Nvidia’s position as a market leader. GBPUSD: A Buy Outlook Exponential Moving Average EMA 5: Standing at 1.2764, this suggests a Buy sentiment. EMA 20: Displaying 1.2738, reinforces a Buy indication. EMA 50: Aligned at 1.2751, the 50-day EMA supports a Buy recommendation. Simple Moving Average SMA 5: At 1.2766, this indicates a Buy sentiment. SMA 20: Recording 1.2724, this supports a Buy stance. SMA 50: Standing at 1.2735, this signifies a Buy indication. RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI, calculated over 14 days, reads 61.13, suggesting a positive signal. Stochastic Oscillator The %K value of the Stochastic Oscillator indicates a Positive condition. Resistance And Support Levels Resistance: Identified at 1.2819 Support: Observed at 1.2711 Summary And Trade Suggestions Based on technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Buy outlook. Traders may consider entering a long position, considering the indicators, moving averages, and oscillators. Trade Suggestion: Entry Point: 1.2869 Take Profit: 1.2973 Stop Loss: 1.2788 EURUSD: Favorable For Long Position Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted August 29, 2023 Author Share Posted August 29, 2023 Fundamental Analysis Report With Charting Trends - 29 August 2023 Nasdaq Rockets 0.84% After Jackson Hole! What’s Behind This Explosive Surge? Introduction In the ever-changing landscape of financial markets, the US stocks have once again demonstrated their resilience as the Nasdaq rose by an impressive 0.84%. This surge comes on the heels of the Jackson Hole symposium, a gathering of economic minds that often sets the tone for market sentiment. As the week unfolds, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s data, providing investors with crucial insights into the future trajectory of interest rates. Let’s delve into the details of this market update and explore the implications for global investors. Nasdaq Takes The Lead The Nasdaq, a stalwart among the three major US indices, stole the spotlight with its 0.84% rise on the heels of the Jackson Hole symposium. This advance was accompanied by gains in both the Dow and the S&P 500, indicating a promising start to the week for US markets. Treasury Notes And Rate Speculations Amidst the market fervor, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note garnered attention as it hovered just below the 4.21% mark. Notably, US treasury rates witnessed a slight dip from earlier gains, a reflection of investor debates over the possibility of a third Fed boost. The outcome of these discussions could significantly influence market trends in the near future. Forex Market’s Response While the recent news failed to generate significant excitement in the foreign exchange markets, there were notable fluctuations. The USDJPY initially surged to a high point before experiencing a decline by the end of the trading day. This contributed to an overall decline in the dollar’s value. In contrast, Gold exhibited its characteristic resilience, reaching a high of around $1,926 per ounce. Oil, on the other hand, remained relatively stable, adhering to familiar trading ranges. Fed’s Data: The Center Of Attention The optimism that characterized Wednesday’s stock market surge was largely attributed to Jerome Powell’s optimistic remarks, viewed through a dovish lens. However, seasoned investors recognize that central banks closely monitor data as they plan their next moves regarding interest rates. This week’s data calendar is brimming with US economic indicators, most notably the PCE Price Index, a preferred inflation gauge of the Fed. Additionally, the eagerly awaited non-farm payrolls report promises to shed light on the labor market’s trajectory. Impact On US Markets With all eyes on the US job market, the week’s focus revolves around a market slowdown that could potentially influence the Fed’s decisions on interest rates. While investors hope for a market deceleration to halt rising rates, they are wary of a market crash that could signal an impending recession. This dichotomy sets the stage for a tumultuous week as market participants brace themselves for a whirlwind of data releases. GBP/USD: Riding The Market Waves Exponential Moving Averages Paint A Story EMA 5: At 1.2607, there’s a beckoning Buy sentiment. EMA 20: Stands at 1.2646, reinforcing a Sell indication. EMA 50: Aligns at 1.2695, giving way to a Sell recommendation. RSI And Stochastic Insights RSI: Over 14 days, a reading of 43.21 unveils a Neutral signal. Stochastic Oscillator: %K value suggests a Positive condition. Critical Resistance And Support Levels Resistance: 1.2645 Support: 1.2598 Analyst’s Take: It’s A Sell Outlook Based on our technical analysis, GBP/USD presents a Sell outlook. Traders might consider a short position, considering the various indicators, moving averages, and oscillators. Trade Suggestion: Entry Point: 1.2576 Take Profit: 1.2502 Stop Loss: 1.2641 EUR/USD: Riding The Eurocoaster Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Daily FX Analysis:- GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD Face Challenges Introduction: In the world of currency markets, the GBP/USD is grappling with weakness below the 1.2300 mark, influenced by UK Retail Sales data and PMIs. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0650 after German and EU PMI data. Over in the AUD/USD realm, the pair struggles to gain momentum above 0.6400 amidst a resurgent USD. Lastly, the USD/JPY awaits pivotal moves as the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision looms, with expectations set at 148.50. The backdrop of central bank decisions and economic data casts a shadow of uncertainty across these major currency pairs. GBP/USD: Following UK Retail Sales Figures And PMIs, The GBP/USD Remains Weak Below 1. 2300. A multi-month low recorded on Thursday is still within striking distance as GBP/USD is currently trading depressed around 1.2270. After a surprising BoE halt, depressing UK retail sales data weighs on the pair. The emphasis now is on the UK/US PMI statistics. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate at 5.25%–5.5%. It was verified by the updated Summary of Projections that policymakers still plan to raise the policy rate in 2023. More significantly, the prediction for a rate drop in 2024 was lowered from 100 bps to 50 bps. The hawkish dot plot gave the US Dollar (USD) a lift and kept the GBP/USD under bearish pressure. The Bank of England (BoE) will make its interest rate decision later in the day. The market anticipates a 25 bps increase to 5.5%. However, numerous financial organizations, including Goldman Sachs, updated their predictions in response to the weak Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August and stated that they were now anticipating the BoE to hold the rates constant following its September meeting. Technical Overview : Moving Averages: Exponential: MA 5: 1.2283 | Negative Crossover | Bearish MA 20: 1.2361| Negative Crossover | Bearish MA 50: 1.2456 | Negative Crossover | Bearish Simple: MA 5: 1.2281 | Negative Crossover | Bearish MA 20: 1.2368 | Negative Crossover | Bearish MA 50: 1.2479 | Negative Crossover | Bearish RSI (Relative Strength Index): 25.67 | Sell Zone | Negative Stochastic Oscillator: 31.0| Sell Zone | Positive Resistance And Support Levels: R1: 1.2322 | R2: 1.2452 S1: 1.2231 | S2: 1.2082 Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.2188 | Take Profit: 1.2082 | Stop Loss: 1.2279 EUR/USD: After German And EU PMI Data, The EUR/USD Remains Close To 1.0650. During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD exchange rate is still hovering around 1.0650. Early in August, the service sector’s economic activity showed signs of improvement according to PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone, which helped the euro keep its position. On Thursday, the EUR/USD recovered losses and sank to a new multi-month low of 1.0615. Following US data, the pair touched its daily low before staging a comeback and touching 1.0670 thanks to a decline in the US Dollar. The PMIs, which will give preliminary details about economic activity throughout September in the US and the Eurozone, will be the important data to pay attention to on Friday. These figures will be widely watched because central banks rely on statistics. Technical Overview: Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Daily Commodity Analysis - Investors Seize Golden Trading Opportunities Introduction: In the world of commodities, Natural Gas (XNG/USD) breaks a two-day losing streak, surging back above $3.00, signaling a bullish momentum shift. Meanwhile, Gold prices experience a modest rise, driven by a weakening dollar, yet concerns linger amid potential interest rate hikes. In the broader commodity market landscape, Oil prices continue to climb on supply worries, while Copper shows resilience amidst industrial metal fluctuations. Silver (XAG/USD) also sees gains following US data, though its overall outlook remains cautious. Natural Gas: XNG/USD Snaps Two-Day Losing Streak Under $3.00, Bull Cross-Eyed. The price of natural gas attracts some buyers and swings positive on Friday around $2. 89. During Friday’s early European trading hours, the price of natural gas (XNG/USD) regained its losses. XNG/USD is now up 1.19% on the day, trading close to $2.89 per MMBtu. The weekly Natural Gas Storage Change for the week ending September 15 climbed by 64 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from the prior week’s 67 billion, according to data released on Thursday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Technical Overview: Moving Averages: Exponential: MA 5: 2.80 | Positive Crossover | Bullish MA 20: 2.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish MA 50: 2.71 | Positive Crossover | Bullish Simple: MA 5: 2.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish MA 20: 2.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish MA 50: 2.71 | Positive Crossover | Bullish RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.16 | Buy Zone | Bullish Stochastic Oscillator: 99.85 | Buy Zone | Positive Resistance And Support Levels: R1: 2.85 | R2: 3.00 S1: 2.77 | S2: 2.67 Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2.90 | Take Profit: 3.00 | Stop Loss: 2.84 GOLD: Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 Daily FX Analysis Surges, Sterling Weakens; Japan Cautious on Yen Volatility Introduction: In recent financial news, the Euro (EUR) experienced a notable two-day surge, its strongest since mid-September. However, growing caution among retail traders, with 65% holding net-long positions on EUR/USD, hints at a potential bearish outlook. Concurrently, the U.S. is set to tighten chipmaking equipment export rules to China, straining bilateral relations. Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) dipped slightly amid a fifth week of losses due to a robust U.S. Dollar, while U.K. house prices showed slight improvement. Japan also redefined “excessive” yen volatility thresholds as a precaution, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit an 11-month high, with 12 consecutive weeks of gains expected, while AUD and NZD faced declines due to central bank decisions. Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD: Euro Rises For Second Consecutive Session Amidst Growing Retail Trader Concerns In a remarkable two-day performance, the Euro has surged in value for the second consecutive trading session, demonstrating its most impressive gains since mid-September. However, beneath the surface, there are signs that retail traders are becoming increasingly cautious about the currency’s prospects. A closer look at the IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often acts as a contrarian indicator, reveals an intriguing shift in market sentiment. The big question now is whether this upward momentum in the exchange rate can be sustained. The IGCS data indicates that approximately 65% of retail traders are currently positioned as net-long on EUR/USD. Given the bullish bias that most of these traders hold, this suggests a potential bearish outlook for the currency in the near future. Interestingly, there has been a noticeable uptick in bearish bets, with a 7.05% increase compared to the previous day and a significant 14.98% rise from last week. These recent shifts in trader positioning raise the possibility of a reversal in the Euro’s fortunes. Technical Overview With Chart: Moving Averages: Exponential: MA 5: 1.0531 | Positive Crossover | Bullish MA 20: 1.0604 | Negative Crossover | Bearish MA 50: 1.0715 | Negative Crossover | Bearish Simple: MA 5: 1.0508 | Positive Crossover | Bullish MA 20: 1.0609 | Negative Crossover | Bearish MA 50: 1.0768 | Negative Crossover | Bearish RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.53 | Sell Zone | Bearish Stochastic Oscillator: 100 | Overbought Zone | Bullish Resistance And Support Levels : R1:1.0553 | R2: 1.0566 S1: 1.0513 | S2: 1.0500 Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell Trade Suggestion: Strong Sell: 1.0548 | Take Profit: 1.0489 | Stop Loss: 1.0620 GBP/USD Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalstreetFX Posted October 9, 2023 Author Share Posted October 9, 2023 Daily FX Analysis-Middle East Tensions Roil Forex Markets Introduction: In the midst of escalating Middle East conflicts and shifting global dynamics, major currency pairs face unique challenges. GBP/USD grapples with risk aversion, while EUR/USD maintains vulnerability amid geopolitical tensions. AUD/USD feels the pressure amidst risk-aversion, and USD/JPY treads cautiously as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict influences market sentiment. Amidst these uncertainties, the currency markets await crucial developments, including the US September jobs report and geopolitical shifts that could impact these currency pairs in the days ahead. GBP/USD: GBP/USD Struggles Near 1.2200 As Middle East Conflict Weighs On Risk. GBP/USD is struggling against 1.2200 early on Monday due to risk aversion. Rising Middle East geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed wagers benefit the US dollar. The weight on the pair is also increased by higher oil prices. GBP/USD closed in positive territory on Wednesday and Thursday before edging up to the 1.2200 region on Friday. The pair appears to have additional upside potential in the immediate term, but investors should hold off on any US Dollar (USD) weakening until the September jobs report is less than expected. In the US, it is expected that nonfarm payrolls (NFP) would increase by 170,000 in September. The USD may come under fresh adverse pressure if the NFP comes in below 150,000 and confirms tightening labor market conditions. In such cases, dovish Federal Reserve expectations could cause risk flows to take center stage on the financial markets, giving the GBP/USD exchange rate a further boost. Technical Overview: Moving Averages: Exponential: MA 5: 1.2182 | Negative Crossover | Bearish MA 20: 1.2168 | Positive Crossover | Bullish MA 50: 1.2239 | Negative Crossover | Bearish Simple: MA 5: 1.2180 | Negative Crossover | Bearish MA 20: 1.2153 | Positive Crossover | Bullish MA 50: 1.2229 | Negative Crossover | Bearish RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.34 | Buy Zone | Bullish Stochastic Oscillator: 88.45| Buy Zone | Neutral Resistance And Support Levels: R1: 1.2301 | R2: 1.2539 S1: 1.2319 | S2: 1.1920 Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.2075 | Take Profit: 1.1920 | Stop Loss: 1.2210 EUR/USD: Read Full Report - CAPITAL STREET FX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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