HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date : 2nd May 2023.

Market Update – May 2 -RBA down! FED & ECB to go!


May kicked off with another bank failure, the fourth in two months, as First Republic Bank (FRC) was seized by the FDIC, after which the assets were purchased by JPMorgan Chase. FRC became the second largest bank in US history to go under, ignominiously taking over that mantle from SVB. Morgan Stanley plans to cut 3,000 jobs due to a dealmaking slowdown by the end of June. RBA hiked its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.850%, surprising many forecasters expecting a third straight pause.

Treasury yields closed sharply higher on inflation data and a pick up in Fed fears, a hefty corporate calendar, and upward revisions to Q2 borrowing estimates. US manufacturing sector enters longest contractionary streak since 2009. Stock markets remain choppy in search of direction.

• FX – USDIndex kicked 102.03 in the morning but currently turned lower. USDJPY keep extending gains for the 4th day to 137.70, amid market uncertainty.
• Stocks – The US30 lost -0.14%, while the US500 and US100 were -0.04% and -0.11% lower, respectively. The Nikkei and Hang Seng managed slight gains. #Amazon -3.22%, #Tesla -1.35%, #JPM +2.14%, #Meta +1.19%.

 

• Commodities – USOil fell to $74.35 as weak economic data from China and expectations of a US interest rate increase weigh on the market.
• Gold – at $1983 after tumbling to $1979 from $2007 yesterday.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC down to $2774.

Today – EU HICP and US Factory orders.


Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+1.09%) spiked by more than 85 pips the past 2 hours. MAs keep rising, MACD histogram & signal line rising, Stochastics at 95 and points higher, all indicating further nearterm positive bias.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 3rd May 2023.

Market Update – May 3 – Eyes on Fed.


Japan and China bourses were closed for holidays and elsewhere markets were still rattled by the drop in Wall Street and fresh jitters at US regional banks. Asian stocks declined while US futures steadied on Wednesday as markets wait for the Fed announcement. Lingering concern over the health of the financial system should add to the arguments of the cautious camps at central banks, but policy sensitive short term bonds are underperforming this morning. Treasuries are holding a strong haven bid on worries over the regional banking sector. The sentiment is mixed by recent data suggesting an economic slowdown, including the lowest number of job openings in almost two years.

FOMC Preview: FOMC began its 2-day meeting and will announce its policy decision Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. A 25 bp increase is well anticipated. With no new SEP forecasts to guide the outlook, the focus will be on the policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. We do not expect any explicit forward guidance as the Fed will want to maintain optionality and leave all doors open. However, we do look for him to continue to push back against rate cut expectations. Implied Fed funds futures have slid lower, along with the drop in Treasury yields, amid heightened concerns over regional banks, and after weaker than expected data.

• FX – USDIndex has corrected to 101.30 while the Yen is picking up haven bids. The EURUSD is also back above the 1.103 mark ahead of the Fed announcement today and the ECB meeting tomorrow.
• Stocks – Hang Seng and ASX lost -1.7% and -0.96% respectively, although European and US Futures are higher. The US500 lost -1.16% while the US30 and US100 declined –1.08%. Jitters increased even after JPMorgan’s purchase of beleaguered First Republic Bank provided some stability Monday. But that did not hold as PacWest and Western Alliance were in the spotlight, dropping -42% and -27%, respectively, on investor angst. That saw the KBW bank index drop -4.4%. Nearly every sector in S&P was in the red.

 

• Commodities – USOil plunged by -5% to $71.50 as markets priced in expectations for interest rate hikes in the US and Europe and waited for clarity on future policy path.
• Gold – Spiked to $2018.

Today – US ADP, ISM Services and Fed announcement.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-5%) drifted to 71.29 from 76 area. MAs flattened but MACD histogram & signal line are way below 0, Stochastics is slipping. ATR(H1) at 0.20 & ATR(D) at 2.26.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 4th May 2023.

Market Update – May 4 – Renewed Anxiety.



Asian stock markets traded mixed, US futures are moving higher, while European futures are in the red. A somewhat mixed picture then, as markets digest the Fed announcement, while keeping a wary eye on financial conditions. A 25 bp hike had long been priced in, while the shift in the policy statement was also in line with expectations. The Fed kept all options open for the next meeting and the ECB is likely to do the same after delivering another hike today. Heightened caution at central banks also reflects the fact that bank jitters continue to linger and are contributing to a tightening of credit conditions that will amplify the rate hikes already delivered. Treasuries are in the green.

• FX – USDIndex remained under pressure and dropped to 100.78 while the Yen continues to outperform, with USDJPY at 134.14. EURUSD failed to break 1.11, while Cable breached its 1.2592 high.
• Stocks – The US500 lost -0.70%, the US30 is down by -0.80% and US100 declined –0.46%. The CSI300 corrected on its return from the extended holiday, the ASX also closed slightly lower, while the Nikkei was up 0.1% at the close and the Hang Seng is 0.8% higher on the day.

 

• Commodities – USOil at $63.90 on signs of weak US demand and signals that the US may pause its interest rates increases. The lowest in more than 6-weeks on concerns over the global growth outlook.
• Gold – Spiked to 1 -year high at $2079. Currently presents some correction to $2033.

Today – ECB policy announcement, US Jobless rate & Canadian Ivey PMI. Earnings: Apple, Coinbase, Nvidia.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GER40 (-0.87%) drifted to key support level at 15,760. MAs bearishly crossed but MACD histogram & signal line are close to 0, Stochastics is slipping & RSI at 37. ATR(H1) at 53.7 ATR(D) at 160.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 5th May 2023.

Events to Look Out for Next Week.

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Even if some of the Central Banks chaos are out of the way for now, jitters over regional banks continued to spread with PacWest, First Horizon, hit hard Western Alliance. Inflation concerns and central bankers speeches are expected to dominate next week. Focal points will be the BOE rate decision and US Inflation.

Monday – 08 May 2023

---

• BOJ Minutes (USD, GMT 23:50) – The BOJ minutes should provide guidance on the pace for further accomodative policy.

Tuesday – 09 May 2023

---

• Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00) – Chinese Trade Balance for April is expected to grow by 74.30 bln from 88.19 bln.

Wednesday – 10 May 2023

---

• Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US inflation figures are forecasted to grow by 0.4% for the headline and 0.3% for the core in April, after respective March gains of 0.1% and 0.4%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to climb 2% in April. We expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices through 2023 as disruptions from global supply chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine subside. As-expected March CPI figures would result in a steady y/y headline rise from 5.0%in March, versus a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. We expect the core y/y gain to slow to 5.4% from 5.6% in March, versus a 40-year high of 6.6% in September.

Thursday – 11 May 2023

---

• Consumer Price Inflation (CNY, GMT 01:30) Chinese inflation as measured by CPI is expected to rise y/y from 0.7% to 1.0%. Producer Price Index y/y is likely to decrease to -2.5%.
• Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – Markets speculate that the BoE will be forced to continue hiking rates for longer than ECB and Fed. Markets are speculating that the Fed may be forced to start to cut rates in the second half of the year, while the ECB is expected to deliver two more rate hikes, which means peak rates are coming into sight. The BoE is also set to hike again next week and given that inflation remains in double digits, it will likely keep the door open to additional tightening steps, with markets seeing further hikes down the line.
• Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The April PPI could gain of 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, after respective figures of -0.5% and -0.1% in March. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric easing to 2.5% from 3.2%, versus an all-time high of 11.7% in March of 2022. We expect the y/y core measure to fall to 3.2% from 3.4%, versus an all-time high 9.7% in March of 2022. The y/y calculation should fall sharply through mid-2023 as comparisons become much easier.

Friday – 12 May 2023

---

• Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP for Q1 is expected at -0.% y/y and headline at 0.5% q/q.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 8th May 2023.

Market Update – May 8 – Sentiment Firming; A Cooler USD & Rising Stocks.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USD continues under pressure (USDIndex 100.88) after a monumental week saw the FED & ECB’s 25 bp hikes (could it be the last from the FED?), another US bank failure, a jobs report beat, (253k vs 181k) and better than expected earnings, especially, from the biggest of all companies – Apple. Stocks rallied on Friday, and have followed through in Asia today, Yields cooled again with the AUD and NZD outperforming. The UK and France are closed on quiet data day. Berkshire Hathaway announced $35.5bn profits

Week Ahead Topped by US CPI data (Wednesday) and the BOE Rate Decision (Thursday).

• FX–USDIndex continues to be biased lower, from 101.50 highs on Friday back to test support from last week at 100.88, EUR tested 1.0970 lows on Friday but recovered 1.1000 to trade at 1.1033 now. JPY rallied from 134.00, breached 135.00 but trades at 134.70 now. Sterling holds over the key break of 1.2500 last week, breached 1.2600 on Friday and is testing 1.2650 now.
• Stocks-US markets closed strongly (+1.65% to 2.25%) (#APPL +4.69%%, #TSLA +5.50%) – US500 closed +1.65% 4136, FUTS are trading at 4147 today and still below the key resistance at 4175 & 4150.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures hold onto Friday gains and trade at $71.70 as recession fears still swirl, but up from the breach of the 18-mth low at $64.00 last week. Gold – tested back into $2000 on Friday, but is up to $2020 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC has tumbled over 5% from Friday highs over $29.6k to test $28.0k once again, today.

Today – German Industrial Output (missed -3.4% vs +2.1%) , EZ Sentix, Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey, NY SCE, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, Speech from ECB’s Lane, Earnings from PayPal.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.29%). Continued to gain from Friday’s rally from 0.6700 to 0.6780 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but flat, RSI 72.45, OB but also flat, H1 ATR 0.00096 Daily ATR 0.00621.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 9th May 2023.

Market Update – May 9 – Calm Ahead of US CPI Tomorrow.


The USD ticked higher (USDIndex 101.21), with tight credit markets and business loans weak but not as bad as expected. US Stocks closed flat and Asia is subdued with little data ahead of US CPI tomorrow. Sterling came off 1-year highs but remains supported with BOE later in the week. LinkedIn announced 700 job losses and will close China app. Ueda – YCC will end when price goal achievement “foreseen”. AUD & JPY higher, EUR weighed to start the European session.

Overnight – Chinese trade balance data exceeded expectations, Japanese household spending missed significantly and a key UK Retail Sales survey beat.

• FX – USDIndex once again found support at 100.88, currently holds over 101.00, EUR has pushed under 1.1000 from 1.1050 yesterday. JPY slips below 135.00 from a technical intra-day resistance at 135.34 earlier. Sterling declined from 1-year highs at 1.2670 yesterday but holds 1.2600 today.
• Stocks- US markets closed flat (-0.17% to 0.18%) (#TSN -16.41%, #AMD +5.79%) – US500 closed +2 pts 4138, FUTS are trading at 4148 today and still below the key resistance at 4175 & 4150.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures added to Friday’s gains and touched $73.50 and trades at $72.60 today. Gold – tested back into $2000 on Friday, but held $2020 yesterday, trades at $2025 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC tumbled over 5.5% from Friday highs over $29.6k under the key $28k support level, and tested into $27k as Binance twice stalled withdraws over the weekend. Trades at $27.4k now.

Today – Speeches from ECB’s Lane & Schnabel, Fed’s Williams & Jefferson. Earnings from Daimler Truck, Ubisoft, Direct Line, Airbnb & Occidental Petroleum.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.29%). Has broken a 3-day rally from 83.50 to 85.85 yesterday and is back at 85.30 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 44.21 & falling, H1 ATR 0.140 Daily ATR 0.00621.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 11th May 2023.

Market Update – May 11 – BOE & Sterling In Focus Following US CPI.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex tanked to 101.00 following the cooler CPI reading yesterday and remains pressured as yields also tick lower following gains yesterday. US Stocks closed mixed and Asian markets are broadly higher. Sterling came off 1-year highs but remains supported with BOE front and centre today. NZD outperforms in Asian trading. Disney earnings disappointed (Disney+ subscriptions in particular) and shares fell -4.5% after hours. Chinese CPI data fell again (0.1% vs 0.7%) and PPI data worsened and remained deflationary and in contraction (-3.6% vs. -2.5%).

Overnight – Japanese bank lending ticked higher as the BOJ continued to send the same mixed signals. Yellen opened the G7 meeting saying that a US debt impasse threatens US global leadership, and a default would produce economic, financial ‘catastrophe’ .

• FX – USDIndex declined from 101.50 resistance to 101.00, after US CPI broke below 5% for the first time since May 2021. Trades at 101.30) now. EUR tested and rejected 1.1000 again and trades at 1.0970. JPY slipped from 135.50 below 134.00, before recovering to 134.20 now. Sterling tested and declined from 1-year highs, again, at 1.2670 yesterday but holds 1.2600 today ahead of the expected 25 bp interest rate hike from the BOE.
• Stocks- US markets closed mixed (-0.09% to +1.04%) with the NASDAQ leading. (GOOGL +4.10%, AMZN +3.35% & #AXP -3.06%, #PYPL -3.83%) – US500 closed +18pts 4137, FUTS are trading at 4161 today mid-way between key resistance at 4175 & 4150.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tested over $73.75 and hold $73.00 today. Gold – spiked to $2050 again, reverted to $2020 support and trades at $2030 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC recovered the key $28k, dipped to test $26.75k lows & trades at $27.5k now.

Today – US Weekly Claims & PPI, BOE Policy Announcement & Press Conference, OPEC MOMR, Speeches from US Treasury Secretary Yellen, Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos.

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.20%). Continued to rally from the breach of 0.5600 on Monday to 0.5675 highs today, next resistance 0.5700. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 58.70 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00083, Daily ATR 0.00517.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 22nd May 2023.

Market Update – May 22 – US Debt Ceiling Issues Focuses Minds & Markets.



The USDIndex has declined into 103.00 as the problems over the US debt ceiling enter a crunch week – President Biden to meet Kevin McCarthy today- with the US Treasury set to run out of cash on June 1. The solid front displayed at the G7 meeting saw China put on notice (despite Biden saying that US-China relations should improve “very shortly”) and unified pressure on Russia. In response China, banned chips from Micron. US stocks were flat into close on Friday, with Futures & Asian markets also directionless on little economic data today. The US500 failed to hold the 4200 level after testing 4212, has not closed at 4200 since August. All three were higher for the week. Yields are mixed with very short-term rates higher but 2yr and 10yr lower.

This Week – Global PMI’s, RBNZ, FOMC Minutes, US GDP Durable Goods & Personal Income/Spending.

• FX – USDIndex declined under 103.00 earlier from 103.50 highs on Friday. EUR tested into 1.0750 and weekly lows on Friday back to 1.0820 now. JPY breached over 138.50 again on Friday, before sinking to 134.50 and back to 138.00 now. Sterling collapsed to test under 1.2400 on Friday but trades at 1.2450 now.
• Stocks- US markets closed flat on Friday (-0.14% to -0.33%). FL -27.24 after poor Earnings & weak outlook. US500 closed -6.07pts, 4191, FUTS are trading at 4200, above the key resistance at 4175.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures have lost close to $3 a barrel from Friday’s high, at $73.50 to $70.700 today, over debt ceiling concerns and US/China mixed messaging. Gold – reclaimed $1975 into close on Friday from a test into the $1950 zone, and holds the $1975 level to start the week.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC continued to decline, today testing $26.5k lows from Thursday but trades at $26.8k now.

Today – EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed’s Bullard & Barkin, ECB’s Lane, de Guindos & Elderson.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.30%). From last week’s breach of 0.8370 lows the pair is once again testing 0.8500 at 0.8480 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 62.35 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00118, Daily ATR 0.00717.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 24th May 2023.

Market Update – May 24 – NZD Roiled, Sterling in Focus.



The USDIndex moved up to 103.50 on safe haven Dollar buying as US debt ceiling talks made little progress, with no new talks scheduled & no deal in view. US stocks lost over -1% and Yields also cooled as Treasuries got a lift. Global PMIs showed weakness but US Services were remarkably robust. Overnight the NZD tanked (-1.45%) as the RBNZ raised rates by 25 bp but signalled the end of the hike cycle. Asian stocks also fell, particularly in mainland China. Saudi Arabia warning speculators on the future of production and prices.

Overnight – GBP Inflation Dump – consumer prices hotter than expected, 8.7% vs 8.2% & 10.1% prior, CORE increases to 6.8% from 6.2% and RPI 11.4% vs. 11.1% from 13.5%. PPI shrunk to 6.0% from 8.3%.

• FX – USDIndex spiked to 103.50, back to 103.30 now but holds the bid for a 10th day. EUR tested into 1.0760 again and holds below 1.0800 at 1.0785. JPY breached & holds 138.50, topping at 138.85 (high from November 2022) once again and holds back at 138.50 now. Cable spiked to 1.2466 following the inflation & retail sales data. The pair is back to 1.2450 now up from 1.2375 lows on Tuesday.
• Stocks – US markets closed much lower (-0.69% to -1.26%). TSLA -1.64%, APPL -1.52%, GOOGL -2.00%, MSFT –1.84%. US500 (-1.12%) closed -47.05 pts at 4145, FUTS are trading at 4155, below the key resistance at 4175.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures rallied from $70.70 again yesterday and spiked to test the $74.00 zone following hawkish comments from Saudi Arabia regarding further output cuts. Gold – has moved back to the $1975 level, once again finding buyers at the key $1950 zone.
• Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test $27.5k (21-day EMA) yesterday before rejecting the area and moving to $26.75k now.

Today – German Ifo, FOMC Minutes (May), Speeches from BOE’s Bailey, ECB’s Lagarde & Fed’s Waller.

 

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+2.05%). From Monday’s test of 1.9775 lows the pair has rallied over 2.0250 following the RBNZ. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 92.00 very OB & flat, H1 ATR 0.00476, Daily ATR 0.0161.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 25th May 2023.

Market Update – May 25 – USD & Yields at 2-month highs, Stocks weak, Nvidia blockbuster.


The USDIndex moved up to breach 104.00 on more safe haven Dollar buying as US debt ceiling talks continued to grind on and FOMC minutes showed a division on the need for more rate hikes. US stocks lost over -0.6% & and are lower in Asia, NASDAQ FUTS buck the trend at +1.3% as NVIDIA reported massive demand for AI chips (shares were +24% after market close). Yields rallied, supporting the USD as 2-yr yields breached 4.4%. Overnight, the US credit agency FITCH has put the United States’ AAA long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating on negative watch due to brinkmanship over the debt ceiling.

Overnight – German GDP – misses at -0.3% vs. 0.0% and the GfK Consumer Climate also missed at -24.2 vs. -23.6.

• FX – USDIndex has rallied to 104.00, a 2-month high and up from 100.73 lows on May 4. A stronger Dollar weighs on EUR which has tested down under 1.0730 lows today. JPY breached & holds 139.50, topping at 139.65 (a new 25-week high). Cable slipped again to 1.2330 lows today, over 130 pips lower from yesterday’s top, but has now recovered the 1.2350 handle.
• Stocks – US markets closed lower again (-0.61% to -0.77%). NVDA -0.49% (+24% after the market close), ANF +31%, Urban Outfitters -+17.59%, Citi -3.0% TGT –2.76%. US500 (-1.12%) closed -30.34 pts at 4115, FUTS are trading at 4149, below the key resistance at 4175.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures hold over the $74.00 zone following inventories which showed a huge drawdown of 12.5 million barrels vs expectations of a 1.9 million barrel build, on top of vague Saudi output cut threats. Gold – has moved back to the $1960 level, once again, having rejected a rally to $1980 and the 200-hr moving average.
• Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test under $26k earlier, down from $27.3k highs yesterday, currently the $27k handle has been recovered and the pair trade around $27.2k.

Today – US Weekly Claims, GDP (2nd reading), PCE Prices (Prelim.) CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, ECB’s Lane, de Guindos, Wunsch, Makhlouf & Vujcic, Fed’s Barkin & Collins.





Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) US100.F (+1.41%) Following Nvidia Earnings the FUTS has rallied from under 13,600 low’s yesterday to 13,866 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.20 & rising, H1 ATR 52.71, Daily ATR 0.0161.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 26th May 2023.

Market Update – May 26 – 2-year Debt Ceiling Deal Approaching?



The USDIndex holds the breach of 104.00 on news the US debt ceiling talks are progressing and a 2-year deal is possible. Strong US data yesterday also added to pressure on the FED to hike at least one more time. Susan Collins from the Boston Fed, suggested that a pause in June “may be appropriate”. Stocks were mixed, NASDAQ (+1.71%) lifted by a record +24% advance for Nvidia. Yields also rallied, with short end of the curve at 10-week highs as the 2-yr yield holds over 4.5%. Overnight, the Yen remains weighed and the Nikkei 225 outperformed following inflation data and news that the BOJ is likely to maintain the YCC until “at least next year”.

Overnight – Japan – Tokyo CPI missed at 3.2% vs. 3.4% but remains much stronger than at any time in recent history, also PPI came in higher than expected at 1.6% vs 1.4%. AUD – Retail Sales added to the weak data this week missing at 0.0% vs. 0.4%, UK – Retail Sales beat (0.5% vs 0.3%) but last months data was revised lower to -1.2% from 0.9%.

• FX – USDIndex has rallied to 104.22, another new 2-month high. A stronger USD continues to weigh on EUR which tested down to the 1.0700 zone yesterday, trades at 1.0730 now. JPY breached 140.00 & still holds over 139.50 at 139.65 now. Cable slipped again to 1.2310 lows yesterday, recovering a little to the 1.2350 handle.
• Stocks – Wall Street traded mixed all day and closed that way. (-0.11% to +1.71%). NVDA +24.37%, MRVL +7.6%, DLTR -12.00%. US500 (+0.88%) closed 36.34 pts at 4151, FUTS are trading at 4159, and a third day below the key resistance at 4175.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $71.00 zone from $74.25 following mixed news regarding Saudi output cut threats. Gold – moved lower again, to $1937, tbut has since recovered to the key $1950 handle.
• Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test under $26k yesterday and remain capped at $26.5k today as USD strength persists.

Today – Core PCE Price Index, Core Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending, UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.

 



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.24%) Following a strong rally to 140.22 giving back some gains today. MA’s aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but slipping, RSI 48.17 & neural, H1 ATR 0.152, Daily ATR 1.096.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 29th May 2023.

Market Update – May 29


The USDIndex retreated to 103.97 on news that Biden struck a deal with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that would raise the US debt ceiling and prevent an unprecedented default in early June. It still must pass the House and Senate. US and UK are closed for a holiday today, while Chinese stocks in Hong Kong extend their slump, amid concerns on geopolitics and slow recovery in China.

Overnight – In an interview for WSJ, Kissinger (Former US Secretary of State) stressed that a ‘problem’ in the South China Sea could serve as a reason for the armed conflict between US and China.

• FX – USDIndex has pulled back to 103.94. EUR rebounded from 1.07 to 1.0739. JPY spiked to 140.92 before reverting to PP at 140.23. Cable up again to 1.2371 but still within range. Turkish lira falls after warnings from Washington regarding Erdogan’s win (as unorthodox policy, characterised by low interest rates, restrictive foreign currency regulations and high inflation will continue).
• Stocks – Wall street, Asia and European Stocks up for the day. JPN225 is at its highest level since July 1990. NASDAQ (+0.5%), Topix and ASX200 both rose about 1%, while Hang Seng and CSI300 are down by 0.3 and 0.6% respectively. NVDA +2.54% unveils more AI products post spectacular result on Thursday and the $184 billion rally. Currently the world’s most valuable chipmaker (worth $939.3 billion). DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.

 

• Commodities – USOil – extends gains after US officials agree on tentative debt deal, i.e. at 73.60. UKOIL climbed to 77.47.
• Gold – steady ahead of vote in congress for the debt ceiling at $1946.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC spiked to $28430.

Today – This week the US employment report will help determine whether the FOMC will hike or pause in June. China’s PMIs will give clues on the sputtering economy.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCAUD (+4.26%) rallied 43519. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line positive but steady, RSI 70 & neutral, H1 ATR 235.56, Daily ATR 988.59.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Edited May 29, 2023 by HFM

[HFM]

Date : 30th May 2023.

Market Update – May 30 – Stocks Muted Ahead Of Vote.


Eurozone stock markets are slightly higher, US futures outperforming as officials promote their debt ceiling deal to secure sufficient support to pass the vote in Congress, while Asian markets closed narrowly mixed. Most Asian equities declined today ahead of the deal vote but also due to the concerns regarding China’s outlook and rising tensions with the US, after Beijing declined the Pentagon’s request for a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu at a security forum in Singapore in June. Russia launched a wave of air strikes on Kyiv today, while in Moscow videos shared on social media showed drones flying low over the Russian capital. Treasury yields declined across the curve on debt dated from 5 years to 30 years.
Meanwhile as investors had started to price in a US debt deal on Friday, confirmation of the agreement should have a limited impact.

• FX – USDIndex has moved up to 104.48 as confidence in the debt ceiling deal strengthens. EUR dips to 1.0677, JPY retests 140.92 for a 2nd day in a row and Cable is still within its range at 1.2325 lows.
• Stocks – Hang Seng dropped as much as 1% today , marking the fifth day of declines and taking its losses from the Jan. 27 peak to about 20%. JPN225 closed 0.3% higher, CAC 40 is up at 0.1%, the DAX is up at 0.2%, US500 and US100 rose 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Nvidia +2.54% and Tesla +4.72%.

 

• Commodities – USOil returned to 72.10 as the market’s risk-on sentiment cooled slightly and mixed messages from major producers clouded the supply outlook ahead of their meeting over the weekend.
• Gold – extended lower to $1933, leaving the doors open for a potential move to $1920 and $1900.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC held yesterday’s gains above $27530.

Today – Fedspeak will remain heavy before the upcoming blackout period. Barkin speaks on policy and the economy. We also have Eurozone economic confidence, US consumer confidence, home prices, the US House vote on the deal and the May reading of China’s manufacturing PMIs.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (-0.60%) pullback to 3.6210. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line are close to 0, RSI 42.67 & falling, H1 ATR 0.0129, Daily ATR 0.0899.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 31st May 2023.

Market Update – May 31 – Last Day of May.


Treasuries rallied with rising hopes that the debt deal will be signed off by Congress. Wall Street finished mixed after opening in the green, extending Friday’s AI inspired pop on additional strength from Nvidia which saw its market cap briefly top $1 tln. China’s service sector expanded rapidly in May but factory activity contracted, implying an uneven recovery and boosting concerns for a slow recovery.
German import prices were down -7.0% y/y. PPI numbers also came in weaker than anticipated and the data adds to signs that inflation pressures are dropping fast. So far the central scenario remains that the ECB will be hiking rates again in June and July, but if confidence data doesn’t improve and credit growth deteriorates further, the July hike could still be cancelled.
FT:” A group of Republicans led by Pennsylvania congressman Scott Perry said on Tuesday they would “do everything” in their power to block the deal, casting doubt on whether Congress would pass the debt ceiling deal agreed on Saturday by the default deadline.”

• FX – USDIndex has rebounded to 104.19 on Fed expectations, after dipped to 103.87. EUR dips to 1.0683, JPY pulled back to 139.30 and Cable fell 0.2% to 1.239.
• Stocks – Hang Seng dropped more than 2% post PMIs from China, the US500 and US100 both fell 0.3%. #Nvidia +2.99%, #Tesla +4.14% and #GoldmanSachs (-0.36%) plans another round of job cuts amid dealmaking slowdown.

 

• Commodities – USOil has dropped and reversed gains. Currently at $69. China’s recovery continues to look lackluster and Russian oil continues to reach world markets, which coupled with growth concerns has been keeping a lid on prices. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister has kept the option of another output cut on the table ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on June 4, although Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that he anticipated no new measures from the group.
• Gold – has moved higher to $1964, as Treasuries rallied.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC drifted to 26946 which is also S3. Barrons: Bitcoin miners appear to have dodged a bullet, as Congress’ draft debt-ceiling bill doesn’t include the heavy crypto tax that the White House had proposed.

Today – HCPI & CPI from Germany, Canadian GDP and lots of Fedspeeches from Bowman, Harker and Jefferson.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.51%) drifted to 1.06716. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line turned negative, RSI 29 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00106, Daily ATR 0.00595.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 1st June 2023.

Market Update – June 1st -Stocks higher after bill vote.


Yesterday’s dovish Fedspeak, a mixed Beige Book, a weak Chicago PMI, and easing concerns over a default supported yields. Month-end demand and a little risk aversion underpinned too. The market also continued to correct from some of the heavy losses since May 11 resulting from hotter data that opened the door for a June rate hike. Implied Fed funds futures dive and Treasury yields have followed suit after Fed Governor Jefferson touted skipping a June hike in order to see more data. The June implied rate has fallen to 5.198% and July has downshifted to 5.288%.
Today, Stocks edged higher after the House voted 314-117 on Wednesday in favour of a bill to raise the US debt ceiling. The bill will pass through the Senate next. German retail sales rose 0.8% m/m in April & UK house prices fell 0.1% in May as rate concerns persist.

• FX – USDIndex climbed to 104.699 with support from JOLTS, but closed lower at 104.23 following dovish Fedspeak and the Beige Book. EUR dipped to 1.0683, JPY pulled back to 139.30 and Cable fell 0.2% to 1.239.
• Stocks – US100 was down -0.63% and the US500 off -0.61%, unwinding some of the enthusiasm from Nvidia. The US30 slid -0.41%.

 

• Commodities – USOil remained under pressure below $69 after weaker than expected official PMI reports for China added to growth concerns and weighed on the demand outlook. Comments from Russian officials damped speculation that OPEC+ could announce deeper output cuts at the June 4 meeting.
• Gold – moved sideways between $1960-$1968. It closed the month lower after strong data releases bolstered speculation of another Fed hike in June.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC closed the week’s gap down to $26,580.

Today – UK Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Inflation and Core, US ADP change and ISM Manufacturing Index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Cotton (+2.58%) spiked to 85.42. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line turned positive but still close to 0, RSI 69 & rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 2nd June 2023.

Market Update – June 2nd – Stocks higher as US debt deal is signed off!


June kicked off with rallies in Treasuries and on Wall Street thanks diminished fears of a Fed rate hike and a debt default. USDIndex slumped. Stock markets across Asia moved higher while, the decline in yields helped support equities, especially big tech which had stumbled.
The US Senate has approved a fiscal deal between the White House and congressional Republicans, ending a weeks-long political stand-off that risked triggering an unprecedented debt default in the world’s largest economy.
Markets are looking for a pause from the Fed in June as debt drama is out of the way, the price data has weakened and there is a continued weakness in manufacturing. The repricing of Fed outlooks saw the probability of another 25 bp tightening on the 14th trimmed to 25% from 70% at the start of the week.

• FX – USDIndex closed at 103.58 from a peak of 104.50. EUR dipped to 1.0778, JPY extended losses to 138.60 and Cable spiked to above 1.2500 at 1.2543.
• Stocks – Hang Seng rose nearly 4%. The Nikkei closed 1.2% higher, the US100 is up by more than 1.29%, while the US500 was up 0.99% and the US30 0.47% higher. Nvidia another 5% up, Salesforce 4.69% down.

 

• Commodities – USOil have stabilised and backed up from recent lows amid an aversion of a default on the US’s liabilities. Currently it is at 70.92 from 66.85 yesterday.
• Gold – rallied to $1983.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC recovered yesterday’s losses and is currently retesting a move above $27k.

Today – NFP day, with nonfarm payrolls projected rising 180k in May, though recent reports on jobless claims, ADP, and some of the PMIs suggest upside risks.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.75%) spiked to 91.80. MAs currently flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive and rising, RSI 72 & flat.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 6th June 2023.

Market Update – June 6 – RBA Surprises, Binance Charged, Crypto & USD Weaker.


The USDIndex sinks below 104.00 following weaker ISM Services PMI’s Stocks were mixed, Asia traded mixed following the subdued US handover and weak data, the RBA delivered a second consecutive surprise rate hike taking rates to 4.1% – the highest level since April 2012 AND the bank also left the door open to additional hikes, as inflation remains sticky & more tightening may be necessary. AUD rallied lifting NZD too. The US SEC is to sue Binance and founder Zhao over ‘web of deception’, Crypto’s sink. Oil markets continue to decline from the initial OPEC+ announcement rally yesterday.

Overnight – Weak Japanese personal spending data, weak UK retail sales data & German manufacturing orders dropped -0.4% m/m. Expectations had been for a sizeable bounce after the -10.9% m/m contraction in March, but instead orders declined for another month.

• FX – USDIndex has fallen to 103.75, in a wide arc around 104.00. EUR holds 1.0700 and remains capped by 1.0750. JPY cannot hold the 140.00 handle & is below 139.50, Cable rallies from 1.2400 to the next resistance at the 1.2450 handle.
• Stocks – Wall Street traded mixed all day closing lower (-0.09% to -0.59%). NINTC 2-4.63%, DELL -3.79%. US500 (-0.20%) closed -8.58 pts at 4273, FUTS are trading at 4276, and an eighth day above the key resistance at 4175 and a fourth day north of 4200.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $71.25 zone from $74.25 following the OPEC+ production cut announcement on Sunday. Gold – moved lower again, to $1937, yesterday but has since recovered beyond the key $1950 handle, to $1963 highs today.
• Cryptocurrencies–BTC plunged to $25.3k lows following Binance news.

Today – EZ Retail Sales, Canadian IVEY PMI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.81%) Following the RBA surprise announcement & outlook rallied over 0.6680. MA’s aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 70.78 & OB, H1 ATR 0.00144, Daily ATR 0.00633.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 7th June 2023.

Market Update – June 7 – Stocks at 2023 Highs, Weak Chinese Data & RBA Aftermath Weigh.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex rotates around 104.00 holding its positive bias, emerging market currencies weaker (USDTRY at record high 22.7200) Stocks closed positively with US500 at a new 2023 high, Asian markets have followed through despite a big miss for Chinese exports (reflecting weak global demand) and poor import levels. Ripples from the RBA decision continue to lift AUD and CAD with a potential surprise from the BOC later today too, now more possible. The SEC decision to sue both Binance & Coinbase (-12%) hit Altcoins in particular as Bitcoin recovered from 3-month lows.

Overnight – Weak Chinese trade data showed a 13-month low sinking over a third ($65.8b vs. $95.2b) as exports missed by 7.5% & imports data was also weaker. AUD GDP also missed (0.2% vs 0.3% & 0.6% prior), Japanese leading Indicators also declined, and more mixed German data showed a miss for Industrial Production, (0.3% vs. 0.7%) but improving from last month’s slump of -2.1%, (which was -3.4%).

• FX – USDIndex continues to rotate in a wide arc around 104.00. EUR holds below 1.0700, remains capped at 1.0750 and trades at 1.0675. JPY cannot hold the 140.00 handle & is below 139.50, at 139.30. Cable holds over 1.2400 with the next resistance at the 1.2450 handle.
• Stocks – Wall Street traded positively (0.03% to 0.36%). US500 at new 2023 high (+0.24%) closed +10.02 pts at 4283, FUTS are trading at 4287, a ninth day above the key resistance at 4175 and a fifth day north of 4200.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into the key $70.00 zone from $74.25 following the OPEC+ production cut announcement on Sunday, before recovering to $71.30 now. Gold – holds the key $1950 handle, and is capped at $1965 highs today.
• Cryptocurrencies–BTC plunged to $25.3k lows following the Binance and Coinbase news, but has recovered to $27k as Altcoins suffer more and Bitcoin gets first mover and largest market cap advantages.

Today – BoC Policy Announcement, remarks from ECB’s de Guindos, Knot & Panetta



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.46%) Rejected 85.00 again yesterday and has declined under 84.50 today. MA’s aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & declining, RSI 31.85 & declining, H1 ATR 0.103, Daily ATR 0.809.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 8th June 2023.

Market Update – June 8 – Ripples from the BOC Reverberate.


The USDIndex continues to rotate around 104.00 holding its positive bias, the BOC surprised with a 25 bp rate hike after no changes since January, following the RBA surprise earlier in the week. Yields rallied (2/10 yr inversion now up to 78 bp) the FED’s assumed “no change” next week comes into focus; the CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of the Fed hiking by 25 bps next week is now 36%, it was under 20% a day earlier. The latest Reuters poll of analysts have been 90% expecting no change next week but 35% expecting at least another 25bp before the FOMC is done. Stocks closed with a negative bias as recession risks ticked up, Asian markets have followed through despite starting in positive mode. Japan GDP annualized 2.7%, beats; q/q -0.3% JPY liked it the Nikkei did not closed (-0.85%). European & UK Future lower, too.
 

• FX – The USDIndex continues to rotate in a wide arc around 104.00. EUR holds above 1.0700, today at 1.0710 but remains capped at 1.0750. JPY briefly breached the 140.00 handle yesterday & is once again testing it today. Cable holds over 1.2400, but below next resistance at 1.2450, having tested the mighty 1.2500 again yesterday.
• Stocks – Wall Street traded mixed with tech particularly vulnerable to any further rate hikes the NASDAQ lost -1.29% whereas the DOW edged out a 0.27% gain. US500 (-0.38%) closed -16.33pts at 4267, FUTS are trading at 4266, a tenth day above the key resistance at 4175 and a sixth day north of 4200.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures rallied into $73.00 zone from $70.00 on Tuesday. EIA Inventories showed a decline of -0.5M barrels vs expectations of a 1.2M build. Gold – rallied to $1970 before breaking below the key $1950 handle, and trades at $1945 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC reversed from the $27k level to 26.5k as both Binance and Coinbase reject any wrongdoing and the SEC accusations.

Today – EZ GDP, US Weekly Claims & Speech from SNB’s Jordan.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.57%) Rallied from 0.5480 today to break 0.5500, next resistance at 0.5520. MA’s aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 54.08 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00072, Daily ATR 0.00451.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 9th June 2023.

Market Update – June 9 – USD & Yields slip, Treasuries & Stocks Rally.


The USDIndex dived from the 104.00 holding pattern to 103.33 as weekly unemployment claims rose much more than expected by 28k to a 2-year high of 261k from 233k reversing the tightening in claims since April. Stocks closed with a positive bias as the S&P500 joined the NASDAQ in technical BULL market and the Eurozone enters a technical recession. Asian markets have followed through too, closing in positive territory, with European & UK Futures firmer too. FED now appear set for no hike next week, (like the BOJ) but very unlike the ECB. Ueda will “patiently maintain current monetary easing”. Binance in the US to stop USD deposits, Goldman Sachs “a US recession has become less likely.”

• FX – The USDIndex down to 103.33 the lowest since May 24. EUR holds above 1.0750, today at 1.0780. JPY briefly tested 138.70 lows from June 2. back to 139.40 now. Cable holds over the mighty 1.2500 at 1.2560.
• Stocks – Wall Street traded positively with tech bouncing back the NASDAQ gained over 1.00%, the DOW edged out a 0.50% gain. US500 (0.60%) closed 26.33pts at 4293, FUTS popped 4300, but are trading at 4290.

 

• Commodities – USOil – Futures tanked under $70.00 again, to $69.00 before bouncing back to $71.00. Gold – rallied to $1970 from below the key $1950 handle, and trades at $1965 now.
• Cryptocurrencies – BTC reversed from the $27k level to 26.5k again in the wake of the Binance and Coinbase rejections of the SEC accusations.

Today – Canadian Jobs Data & Speech from ECB’s de Guindos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.57%) Rallied from 138.75 lows today to break 139.50, next resistance at 139.60. MA’s aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 61.20 & rising, H1 ATR 0.121, Daily ATR 1.177.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.