HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 8th September 2026.

Japanese Yen Hits February High as BoJ Rate-Hike Expectations Rise.
 

The Japanese Yen continues to increase in value, rising to its highest level since February. The rise in value is due to expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Japan and currency intervention. According to the Japanese government, as well as many institutions on Wall Street, this price movement is different and may not simply lose momentum like previous interventions.

BoJ - Two Rate Hikes on the Table

Many economists believe the recent strengthening of the Japanese Yen could be different from previous moves. One key reason is the prospect of further tightening from the Bank of Japan. While even the more hawkish forecasts generally point to quarterly rather than back-to-back rate hikes, expectations are building that the BoJ could raise rates again before the end of the year.

Prime Minister Takaichi’s economic adviser, Takuji Aida, recently indicated that he expects a September rate hike followed by quarterly increases. Most economists do not expect consecutive hikes. Nevertheless, a second hike before year-end remains a possibility.

This creates the potential for the BoJ to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve over the medium term. As a result, the Japanese Yen has continued to strengthen across the currency market, while USD/JPY has come under increasing downward pressure.

Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s global head of economics, said that the bank forecasts two adjustments before year-end. Markets themselves are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of another move by December after the expected September hike. Bank of America also backs two hikes, with its economists advising quarterly hikes, including September and December 2026. According to reports, its foreign exchange team has also turned bullish on the Japanese yen for the rest of 2026.

Higher Exchange Rate to OffSet Higher Oil Prices

Japan is extremely exposed to imported energy. More than 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East. The government also stated earlier that roughly 93% of its crude imports normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For this reason, it is vital for the government and Bank of Japan to boost the currency in order to purchase energy products more easily.

Governor Ueda has specifically identified the weak Yen and geopolitical developments in the Middle East as factors that could increase inflation risks. These risks will be considered when deciding whether to raise interest rates further. If the Bank of Japan adjusts rates from 1.00% to 1.50% by 2027, it would take the rate to the highest level since 1995.

GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY

HFM - GBPJPY 30-Minute Chart

Even though the USD/JPY is one of the most popular assets to be traded, other currency pairs are also interesting. Investors should note that the Federal Reserve is also looking to hike interest rates, and it's a safe haven currency. For this reason, at times, the US Dollar may also experience strong gains. The US Dollar is the second-best-performing currency this year after the Australian Dollar. By contrast, the Swiss Franc and British Pound are among the weakest-performing currencies of 2026 so far.

The GBP/JPY is trading lower this morning falling particularly in the first half of the Asian session. The pair is currently rated ‘Strong Sell’ on the 30-minute, hourly, 4-hour, and daily timeframes. However, on smaller timeframes, traders are cautious of the retracement that is forming. The RSI is not indicating an oversold price due to the retracement, while the MACD remains negative.

Importantly, the price remains below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages. The price is trading at a key support level from earlier in the year, but if the price drops again below 207.383, sell indications remain.

The CHF/JPY is witnessing a similar condition to the GBP/JPY but is experiencing stronger bearish momentum. However, on larger timeframes, CHF/JPY is witnessing an oversold indication on the RSI.
 

Key Takeaways:

• The Japanese Yen has strengthened to its highest level since February.
• Expectations are increasing for further Bank of Japan rate hikes before year-end.
• Higher oil prices are adding to inflation risks and increasing the importance of a stronger Yen.
• GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY remain under downward pressure as the Yen continues to strengthen.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th September 2026.

Tanker Strikes, Missiles Over Jordan: How the Gulf Escalation Is Repricing Oil, Gold, and the Yen.
 

Oil markets just went from ‘watch closely’ to ‘impossible to ignore.’ Brent crude is trading within a whisker of $100 a barrel for the first time since July, and the driver isn’t a slow-burning supply story, it’s an active military escalation between the US and Iran that’s now spilling into Jordan and the Gulf shipping lanes. For traders, this is the kind of setup that demands a plan before the next headline hits, not after.
 

Why Oil Is Suddenly the Market's Main Story

Over the past 48 hours, US forces reportedly destroyed several Iranian crude tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island, a key export terminal. Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles towards a US-linked base in Jordan. Most were intercepted, but the exchange marks a sharp escalation from where this conflict stood even a week ago. Add in Houthi strikes that forced Saudi Arabia to pause activity at some of its own energy facilities, and you have three separate flashpoints hitting oil supply confidence at once.

Brent is currently changing hands near $99.50, with WTI just under $95. Both benchmarks are up more than 60% year-to-date, and traders are increasingly pricing in the risk that this isn't a short-lived spike but a structurally tighter supply environment heading into next year.

For traders, the key levels to watch:

• $100 on Brent: a clean psychological breakout level that could trigger momentum buying if broken decisively.
• Kharg Island and Strait of Hormuz headlines: any reporting of shipping disruption through Hormuz (roughly a fifth of global oil flows) is a volatility trigger regardless of the time of day.
• Weekly API and EIA inventory data: now carry extra weight as a read on how much physical disruption is actually reaching supply.

Given the headline-driven nature of this move, wider stops and reduced position sizing on oil CFDs are worth considering until the geopolitical picture stabilises.
 

Equities Are Split Between Fear and the AI Trade

Global stock markets are sending two different signals depending on where you look. Broad indices are cautious to negative, the Dow and S&P 500 both fell as US trading resumed this week, and European futures have been soft, as rising energy costs feed into inflation worries and rate uncertainty.

At the same time, chip and AI-linked names are still finding buyers. South Korea's KOSPI has been the standout, climbing again on strength in SK Hynix and Samsung, and is now up roughly 67% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing major indices globally. Fresh corporate news, including a major cloud provider signing on as both customer and investor in a leading chipmaker, plus continued strong demand signals from equipment makers, is keeping the AI infrastructure narrative alive even as broader risk sentiment sours.

What this means for index and single-stock traders: correlation between ‘risk-off’ and ‘sell everything’ is breaking down. It is worth separating oil-sensitive, rate-sensitive sectors, such as airlines, discretionary retail, and high-multiple growth outside AI, from the semiconductor and AI infrastructure complex, which is currently trading on its own fundamentals rather than the macro backdrop.
 

The Yen Is Quietly One of the Biggest Stories in FX

While oil dominates headlines, the Yen has been on a multi-day advance, recently trading near ¥153.4 to the dollar. Part of this is classic risk-aversion flow into a funding currency, but there is a policy angle too: the US Treasury Secretary has taken an unusually public stance encouraging Yen strength, and markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of Japan rate hike at next week’s meeting, following stronger-than-expected wage and growth data out of Japan.

A hawkish BoJ combined with a Fed that may be forced to hold rates due to oil-driven inflation risk is a setup that could keep USD/JPY under pressure. For traders running carry-trade-style long-dollar, long-yield positions, this is worth reassessing, the unwind of yen-funded carry trades has historically produced some of the sharpest, fastest FX moves of any G10 pair.
 

Friday’s CPI Print Is the Week’s Real Catalyst

Everything above ultimately funnels into one data point: Friday’s US Consumer Price Index release. Markets are watching to see whether higher gasoline costs from the oil spike are already showing up in the headline number, and whether core inflation (excluding food and energy) confirms the disinflation trend or stalls out.

A hot CPI print, arriving on top of an oil shock, would materially raise the odds of the Fed staying restrictive at its September 15-16 meeting, a scenario that would likely support the dollar and pressure gold and equity indices simultaneously. A softer print would do the opposite and could see risk assets rally even with oil elevated.

Gold is holding firm near $4,390-$4,400 an ounce, caught between two competing forces: safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict on one side, and the risk of higher-for-longer rates on the other. This tension makes gold particularly sensitive to how the CPI surprise breaks, a rare setup where both the geopolitical and monetary policy narratives are pulling in opposite directions at the same time.
 

The Trader’s Checklist for the Rest of This Week

1. Set alerts around $100 Brent and any Strait of Hormuz shipping headlines, this market can gap on weekend and overnight news.
2. Watch Thursday’s PPI as a preview before Friday’s CPI, since producer prices often hint at where consumer inflation is heading.
3. Track USD/JPY into the BoJ meeting, a hawkish surprise there could compound dollar weakness already in play.
4. Keep an eye on the oil-versus-AI divergence in equities, a single ‘risk-off’ label doesn't capture what's happening beneath the index level right now.
5. Size positions for headline risk, not just technical setups, in an active-conflict market, the next catalyst can come from a wire headline as easily as from a chart level.

This is a market where the macro picture is unusually clear. Middle East tensions are pushing oil higher, oil pushing inflation risk higher, inflation risk pushing rate expectations higher, and rate expectations are pressuring equities, but the timing and magnitude of each leg remain genuinely uncertain. That combination of clarity and uncertainty is exactly why volatility, and trading opportunity, are likely to stay elevated through Friday’s CPI release and beyond.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.