HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 8th September 2026.

Japanese Yen Hits February High as BoJ Rate-Hike Expectations Rise.
 

The Japanese Yen continues to increase in value, rising to its highest level since February. The rise in value is due to expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Japan and currency intervention. According to the Japanese government, as well as many institutions on Wall Street, this price movement is different and may not simply lose momentum like previous interventions.

BoJ - Two Rate Hikes on the Table

Many economists believe the recent strengthening of the Japanese Yen could be different from previous moves. One key reason is the prospect of further tightening from the Bank of Japan. While even the more hawkish forecasts generally point to quarterly rather than back-to-back rate hikes, expectations are building that the BoJ could raise rates again before the end of the year.

Prime Minister Takaichi’s economic adviser, Takuji Aida, recently indicated that he expects a September rate hike followed by quarterly increases. Most economists do not expect consecutive hikes. Nevertheless, a second hike before year-end remains a possibility.

This creates the potential for the BoJ to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve over the medium term. As a result, the Japanese Yen has continued to strengthen across the currency market, while USD/JPY has come under increasing downward pressure.

Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s global head of economics, said that the bank forecasts two adjustments before year-end. Markets themselves are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of another move by December after the expected September hike. Bank of America also backs two hikes, with its economists advising quarterly hikes, including September and December 2026. According to reports, its foreign exchange team has also turned bullish on the Japanese yen for the rest of 2026.

Higher Exchange Rate to OffSet Higher Oil Prices

Japan is extremely exposed to imported energy. More than 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East. The government also stated earlier that roughly 93% of its crude imports normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For this reason, it is vital for the government and Bank of Japan to boost the currency in order to purchase energy products more easily.

Governor Ueda has specifically identified the weak Yen and geopolitical developments in the Middle East as factors that could increase inflation risks. These risks will be considered when deciding whether to raise interest rates further. If the Bank of Japan adjusts rates from 1.00% to 1.50% by 2027, it would take the rate to the highest level since 1995.

GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY

HFM - GBPJPY 30-Minute Chart

Even though the USD/JPY is one of the most popular assets to be traded, other currency pairs are also interesting. Investors should note that the Federal Reserve is also looking to hike interest rates, and it's a safe haven currency. For this reason, at times, the US Dollar may also experience strong gains. The US Dollar is the second-best-performing currency this year after the Australian Dollar. By contrast, the Swiss Franc and British Pound are among the weakest-performing currencies of 2026 so far.

The GBP/JPY is trading lower this morning falling particularly in the first half of the Asian session. The pair is currently rated ‘Strong Sell’ on the 30-minute, hourly, 4-hour, and daily timeframes. However, on smaller timeframes, traders are cautious of the retracement that is forming. The RSI is not indicating an oversold price due to the retracement, while the MACD remains negative.

Importantly, the price remains below the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages. The price is trading at a key support level from earlier in the year, but if the price drops again below 207.383, sell indications remain.

The CHF/JPY is witnessing a similar condition to the GBP/JPY but is experiencing stronger bearish momentum. However, on larger timeframes, CHF/JPY is witnessing an oversold indication on the RSI.
 

Key Takeaways:

• The Japanese Yen has strengthened to its highest level since February.
• Expectations are increasing for further Bank of Japan rate hikes before year-end.
• Higher oil prices are adding to inflation risks and increasing the importance of a stronger Yen.
• GBP/JPY and CHF/JPY remain under downward pressure as the Yen continues to strengthen.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.