HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 6th July 2026.

Gold Loses Momentum; Goldman Sachs Eyes 165 For The USDJPY.
 

Gold retraces after three days of consecutive increases as the US Dollar attempts a rebound. Despite the recent US Dollar weakness, the price has not fallen below 100.00, allowing Gold to remain less attractive. The weakness of the Dollar was largely due to a softer tone by global central banks and weaker NFP data.

However, economists advise that they still expect the US Dollar Index to remain above 100.00 and possibly rise again, closer to 102.00. Recent reports note that even with a weaker NFP, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to hike more than other central banks. Particularly, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its USDJPY expectations from 155.00 to 165.00. According to Goldman Sachs, they expect the rate differentials to continue to remain wide.

Gold - Bullish Momentum Loss As USD Gains Momentum

After forming a double stop pattern during this morning’s Asian session, Gold fell 1.35% to a daily low. Investors are keen to see today’s early price movement due to Friday’s bank holiday. All metals are trading lower this morning except for Copper and Platinum, which are unchanged.

Markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. However, investors are unsure whether the Federal Reserve will hike on one, two or three occasions. Currently, only 22% of the market believes the Fed will not hike at all. This is also a similar stance to Citi, who believe the Fed talks hawkish but will not need to hike. According to the Chicago exchange, 42% of the market believe the Fed will hike on one occasion and 35% believe they will hike on more than one.

If the Federal Reserve is to hike on one occasion, the price of Gold will remain under pressure but potentially not decline to new lows. This is because one rate cut is partially priced into the market. However, if the Fed hikes on more than one occasion, Gold may struggle to maintain its value in the medium-term.
 

HFM - Gold 10-Minute Chart

Gold is showing bearish pressure on the 5-minute chart, with the price struggling below the immediate moving average at $4,161. As long as Gold remains below this area, potential downside targets sit at $4,151, $4,145, and $4,135. A break above $4,174 could shift momentum back towards $4,190–$4,202.

On the 30-minute chart, the outlook is mixed but still leans bearish in the near term. Shorter moving averages are pressuring the price, while longer moving averages continue to support the broader structure. However, regardless of bearish indications on some timeframes, traders should be cautious of corrections if the US Dollar Index retraces.

USDJPY - Goldman Sachs Increases Target to USDJPY

The USDJPY continues to be a favourite amongst investors looking for a carry trade, despite the Japanese intervention. The intervention from last week was successful in pushing the exchange rate away from the critical level above 163.00. However, this also gave a clear advantage to traders to purchase at a discounted price. The price is now witnessing strong upward price movement with clear bullish momentum.

Goldman Sachs has revised its USDJPY outlook higher, now expecting the JPY to weaken towards 165 per dollar over the next 12 months. This is due to higher US yields, Japan’s slower policy tightening and renewed demand for carry trades. The bank’s view suggests that even if Japanese authorities intervene, any JPY recovery may be short-lived. According to strategists at Goldman Sachs, the JPY can gain only if the US-Japan yield gap narrows.

For this reason, this week the USDJPY looks more attractive to buyers so far, but traders should be cautious of intervention volatility. Traders should also note that the USDCHF is also a popular carry trade at the moment.
 

HFM - USDJPY 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:

• Gold declined after three consecutive days of gains as the US Dollar attempted to recover.
• The US Dollar Index remains supported above 100.00, limiting Gold’s appeal despite recent Dollar weakness.
• Weaker NFP data softened Dollar momentum, but markets still expect the Fed to remain more hawkish than other central banks.
• Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure below $4,161 with downside targets at $4,144, $4,140, and $4,135.
• A break above $4,174 could shift Gold momentum higher towards $4,190–$4,202.
• Goldman Sachs raised its USDJPY forecast to 165, citing wide US-Japan rate differentials and renewed carry trade demand.
• USDJPY remains attractive to buyers, but traders should remain cautious of possible Japanese intervention and sharp volatility.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th July 2026.

Gold Slides Toward $4,000 as Tech Selloff Weighs on Global Markets.
 

Gold continues to decline downwards towards the $4,000 psychological price. The price of Gold is declining despite the global selloff in technology stocks and Dollar weakness. Investors continue to obtain indications of possible Gold weakness for the remaining months of 2026. The key reason for the lack of demand continues to be expectations of interest rate hikes and fears of the asset trading above its intrinsic value.

All metals trade lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, with Silver and Gold witnessing the largest declines. The US Dollar is the best performing currency of the day but has seen both up and down swings this way.

Gold - Weaker Gold-USD Correlation Indicates Lack of Demand and Momentum

Gold forms two lower highs and breaks below the most recent low, indicating a potential correction back to $4,000. Furthermore, investors have also seen a weaker correlation between Gold and the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index in 2026 has an average volatility level of 0.45%, and yesterday’s downward swing measured 0.35%. This is 78% of the average volatility. During the same period, Gold rose 0.98%, which is only 54% of the average volatility level.

The weakness in the Gold-USD correlation and lack of upward momentum provide a key indication for investors. If the price of the US Dollar Index rises above 100.84, the price of Gold is likely to witness strong short-term pressure.

Many analysts advise that the asset’s upward momentum appears unsustainable. Markets expect the US-Iran conflict to be resolved soon as diplomatic talks continue. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and rising shipping volumes point to normalisation in the Persian Gulf, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals.
 

HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart

JPMorgan Chase continues to expect Gold to average around $4,300 in Q3 and reach $4,500 in Q4. However, many economists are revising their target price lower. These target levels largely depend on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Currently, 23% of the market continues to expect the Fed to not hike in 2026. If the possibility of a pause rises, the price of Gold can also rise and reach these levels. If the figure falls and rate hikes become more likely, Gold is likely to fall back to previous support levels. These levels include $4,026 and $3,940.

NASDAQ - Samsung and Tech-Stocks Drive Global Indices Lower

All global indices are declining, with the NASDAQ and Asian indices particularly coming under pressure from sell orders. Certain stock exchanges in Asia this morning temporarily halted trading in order to continue the current selloff. The key reasons behind the weakness in demand are fear that the Technology Sector has become too expensive and Samsung’s earnings report.

Samsung reported a stronger-than-expected preliminary Q2 2026 earnings update this morning’s Asian session. The earnings report beat expectations by 6%, mainly driven by continued AI-related memory chip demand. Economists noted that despite the earnings beat and stronger-than-expected data, the results were not strong enough to impress shareholders, given the scale of previous AI-related investments. Furthermore, despite the record numbers, investors focused on concerns about how long the AI boom can last, sending the stock sharply lower.

Lastly, today before the US market opens, SpaceX will be added to the NASDAQ. Since SpaceX’s IPO on June 12th, the stock has seen both up and down impulse waves. The price is currently at $160.00, as per the IPO. Funds and ETFs that track the index need to buy the newly added stock, which can push its price higher in the short term.
 

HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart

If the NASDAQ continues to decline, traders will be keen to see the reaction of the index when the price reaches support levels. The key support levels can be seen at $29,108 and $28,944.
 

Key Takeaways:

• Gold remains under pressure, moving closer to the key $4,000 level despite Dollar weakness.
• Gold demand looks weak, with weaker Gold-USD correlation and limited upward momentum.
• Rate hike expectations remain the main risk for Gold, with key support levels at $4,026 and $3,940.
• Global tech stocks are selling off, led by pressure on Asian markets and Samsung’s sharp decline despite stronger earnings.
• NASDAQ remains vulnerable, with traders watching support at $29,108 and $28,944, while SpaceX’s index inclusion may create short-term buying demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th July 2026.

Markets Weekly: Oil, Fed Outlook and Middle East Tensions Keep Traders on Edge.
 

Global financial markets continue to navigate a challenging environment where geopolitics, inflation, and central bank policy remain the dominant themes. Renewed military activity in the Middle East, fluctuating oil prices, and shifting expectations for US interest rates have created increased volatility across currencies, commodities, bonds, and equities.

Although investors remain cautious, market reactions suggest participants still believe the current geopolitical tensions can be contained. However, with inflation risks returning to the spotlight, traders are closely monitoring every headline for signs of a broader shift in market sentiment.
 

Middle East Conflict Remains the Key Market Catalyst

The latest developments between the United States and Iran continue to dominate financial markets.

After renewed military exchanges earlier this week, including US strikes on Iranian military targets and retaliatory attacks by Iran, President Donald Trump initially declared that the ceasefire agreement was ‘over.’ However, sentiment shifted once again after Trump later stated that Iran was seeking to resume negotiations.

This back-and-forth rhetoric has become a familiar pattern throughout the conflict. While the White House appears eager to reduce tensions, investors remain sceptical that a lasting diplomatic solution is close.

Negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme have made little meaningful progress despite previous commitments, suggesting further periods of uncertainty remain likely over the coming weeks.
 

Strait of Hormuz Still in Focus

Although military activity has increased, financial markets have largely avoided panic.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategically important shipping routes, transporting approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies.

Following recent attacks on commercial vessels, shipping activity slowed considerably before gradually resuming along alternative routes. While Brent crude briefly climbed above $80 per barrel earlier this week, prices have since eased back below $78 as investors continue to believe that a full-scale disruption to global energy supplies remains unlikely.

For now, markets appear to view the latest escalation as another phase in the ongoing negotiations rather than the beginning of a prolonged energy crisis.
 

Oil Prices Keep Inflation Concerns Alive

Energy markets remain at the centre of investor attention.

Although oil prices have retreated slightly, the recent rally has reignited concerns that inflation could remain elevated for longer than previously expected.

Higher energy prices feed directly into transportation and production costs, potentially slowing the recent decline in global inflation.

As a result, traders have begun reassessing expectations for central bank policy, particularly in the United States.
 

Federal Reserve Adopts a More Cautious Tone

The release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes provided another reminder that policymakers remain divided over the future path of interest rates.

During the June policy meeting, several members argued that another interest rate increase could still become necessary if inflation remains persistent. Others maintained that rates may gradually move lower later this year.

Following the minutes, markets increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver another rate hike before year-end.

According to futures markets, the probability of another increase has risen significantly over the past week as higher oil prices threaten to keep inflation above target.

For traders, the message remains clear: inflation continues to drive monetary policy.
 

Currency Markets: Dollar Volatility Continues

The US Dollar experienced another volatile week as geopolitical headlines and interest rate expectations continued to influence investor positioning.

Safe-haven demand initially supported the Dollar following renewed military action in the Middle East. However, the currency later weakened after President Trump suggested that diplomatic discussions with Iran could resume.

Markets interpreted the comments as another attempt to de-escalate tensions, although investors remain unconvinced that a lasting agreement is imminent.

Major currency pairs reflected the changing sentiment:
 

• EURUSD climbed back towards 1.1440, approaching recent highs.
• GBPUSD rose above 1.3420, reaching its strongest level in nearly three weeks after breaking above key technical resistance.
• AUDUSD recovered alongside improving risk appetite.
• USDJPY edged lower as Treasury yields eased.

The US Dollar continues to trade between competing forces: safe-haven demand during periods of geopolitical uncertainty and weakness resulting from softer Treasury yields and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
 

Swiss Franc Attracts Defensive Buying
The Swiss Franc remained one of the strongest performers among major currencies this week.

USDCHF continued to move lower as investors sought traditional safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

At the same time, the Swiss National Bank reiterated its willingness to intervene in currency markets if excessive strength in the franc threatens domestic price stability.

Growing demand for both the Swiss Franc and gold reflects investors’ continued search for defensive assets while geopolitical risks remain elevated.
 

Equity Markets Show Signs of Stability

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, global equity markets have remained remarkably resilient.

European stock futures point towards a stronger opening, while US index futures also recovered after earlier losses.

Asian markets delivered mixed performance, with gains in mainland China and Japan offsetting weakness in Hong Kong.

The resilience of equity markets suggests investors continue to expect the current conflict to remain contained rather than escalate into a broader regional crisis.
 

Gold Continues to Benefit from Uncertainty

Gold maintained its upward momentum as investors balanced geopolitical risks against rising interest rate expectations.

Normally, higher Treasury yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainty has continued to support demand for precious metals.

Silver also advanced alongside gold, reflecting broader defensive positioning across commodity markets.
 

Corporate Developments

Artificial intelligence remains one of the strongest long-term investment themes despite current macroeconomic uncertainty.

Among the week’s major corporate developments:
 

• SK Hynix’s upcoming US listing has reportedly attracted exceptionally strong investor demand.
• Reports suggest China may ease restrictions on purchases of Nvidia’s advanced AI chips, potentially supporting semiconductor stocks.
• Meta Platforms announced plans to invest approximately $10 billion in its first Canadian data centre as the company continues expanding its AI infrastructure.

Economic Calendar

European Session

The European Central Bank will release its latest meeting accounts. While the report provides useful insight into policymakers’ discussions, it rarely generates significant market volatility because the information is already considered outdated.

US Session

Attention turns to the latest US labour market data.

Economists expect:
 

• Initial Jobless Claims: 217,000
• Continuing Claims: 1.814 million

Unless the figures differ significantly from expectations, the release is unlikely to become a major market catalyst.

Investors will also monitor speeches from several central bank officials, including representatives from the Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England.
 

What Traders Should Watch Next

Financial markets remain highly sensitive to both economic data and geopolitical headlines.

The key themes likely to drive markets over the coming days include:
 

• Further developments between the United States and Iran.
• Security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oil prices and their impact on global inflation.
• Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
• US Dollar performance across the major currency pairs.
• Next week’s US inflation data, which could significantly influence expectations for future Fed policy.

For now, investors continue to favour the view that geopolitical tensions will remain contained. However, any disruption to global energy supplies or another sharp rise in oil prices could quickly reverse sentiment across global financial markets.

As inflation remains the defining issue for central banks, traders should expect elevated volatility to continue throughout the coming weeks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th July 2026.

Market Wrap: AI Stocks Rally While Oil, Yen and Inflation Stay in Focus.
 

Global financial markets ended the week on a stronger footing as investors shifted their attention back to artificial intelligence (AI) opportunities, helping technology stocks recover despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While concerns surrounding the US-Iran conflict continue to influence energy markets, traders are once again focusing on corporate earnings, AI investment, and central bank expectations.
 

AI Stocks Lead the Recovery

Technology shares staged a strong rebound after several sessions of volatility, as investors viewed the recent sell-off as a buying opportunity rather than the start of a broader correction.

The renewed optimism followed announcements of significant AI-related investment. Micron Technology revealed plans to increase its US manufacturing investment to $250 billion, reinforcing expectations that demand for AI infrastructure and advanced memory chips will remain strong for years to come.

At the same time, South Korea’s SK Hynix attracted significant investor attention ahead of its NASDAQ listing after raising $26.5 billion through an American Depositary Share offering. Together with Samsung Electronics, the company is expected to play a central role in South Korea's ambitious semiconductor expansion programme.

These developments helped lift semiconductor stocks across Asia and supported gains in global technology indices, with investors increasingly positioning ahead of the upcoming earnings season.
 

Asian Markets Finish Higher

Asian equities broadly advanced on Friday, driven primarily by strength in semiconductor and AI-related companies.

Japan's Nikkei 225 gained around 2%, while South Korea's KOSPI surged more than 4%, recovering from recent losses. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also posted solid gains, putting it on track for one of its strongest weekly performances in over a year.

The rally reflects improving confidence that AI-related spending remains one of the strongest long-term investment themes despite elevated valuations.
 

 

Japanese Yen Strengthens on Pension Reform Expectations

One of the week’s most notable developments came from Japan’s currency and bond markets.

The Japanese yen strengthened after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama indicated that the government intends to encourage the country’s large pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to increase allocations towards domestic financial assets.

Such a structural shift could generate long-term demand for Japanese government bonds, equities, and the yen itself.

Following the announcement:
 

• The yen appreciated against the US dollar.
• Japanese government bond yields eased from multi-decade highs.
• Investors viewed the comments as more supportive for the currency than previous intervention efforts.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s won experienced increased volatility after officials suggested the currency remains weaker than economic fundamentals justify and confirmed authorities retain the ability to stabilise exchange rates if necessary.
 

Oil Holds Firm as Middle East Risks Persist

Crude oil prices remained elevated, with Brent crude trading near $76.50 per barrel and WTI above $72, leaving both benchmarks on track for strong weekly gains.

Although markets have become somewhat less concerned about an immediate escalation of the US-Iran conflict, geopolitical risk premiums remain firmly embedded in oil prices.

The biggest concern continues to be shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supplies. Tanker traffic has slowed significantly following renewed military activity in the region, increasing fears of potential supply disruptions.

However, investors also drew reassurance from ongoing diplomatic discussions between Washington and Tehran, as well as comments suggesting that neither side currently appears willing to target major energy infrastructure directly.

For now, markets are balancing elevated geopolitical risks against hopes that diplomatic efforts will prevent a wider regional conflict.
 

Bond Markets Reflect Lower Risk Appetite

US Treasury prices continued to rise, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield slightly lower to around 4.53%.

The move reflects a modest shift towards safer assets as investors continue monitoring developments in the Middle East while also preparing for the start of the US earnings season.

A weaker US dollar also supported broader market sentiment, extending its second consecutive weekly decline against major currencies.
 

European Inflation Continues to Ease

Fresh inflation data from Germany and France offered encouraging news for the European Central Bank.

Germany’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May. Although energy prices remain one of the largest contributors to inflation, their pace of increase continues to moderate.

France delivered an even softer report, with annual inflation falling to 1.8%, while core inflation slowed to 1.0%. Lower energy costs, easing food prices, and weaker services inflation all contributed to the decline.

The latest figures reinforce expectations that the ECB is likely to keep interest rates unchanged during the summer while monitoring whether inflation continues moving sustainably towards its target.
 

Corporate Developments Worth Watching

Several major technology companies also made headlines:
 

• Meta introduced a paid version of its most advanced AI model for developers, creating a new revenue stream from artificial intelligence services.
• OpenAI announced leadership changes after executive Fidji Simo stepped back from her operational role following medical leave.
• Oracle was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings to the lowest investment-grade rating as heavy AI-related spending increases financial pressure.
• Starbucks revealed it is developing more internal AI tools that could eventually replace some third-party enterprise software.

These announcements underline how AI continues to reshape corporate investment strategies well beyond the technology sector.
 

What Traders Should Watch Next

Looking ahead, several themes are likely to dominate financial markets:
 

• US corporate earnings, particularly from major technology companies, will determine whether AI-driven valuations remain justified.
• Any developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations could quickly influence oil prices, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment.
• Continued movements in the Japanese yen may provide clues about future capital flows following Japan’s pension reform discussions.
• Investors will also closely monitor upcoming economic data for further signals on the timing of future interest rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

While geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, market leadership has once again shifted towards technology and AI-related investments. As earnings season begins, traders should prepare for increased volatility as markets weigh strong corporate fundamentals against ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.