HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 6th July 2026.

Gold Loses Momentum; Goldman Sachs Eyes 165 For The USDJPY.
 

Gold retraces after three days of consecutive increases as the US Dollar attempts a rebound. Despite the recent US Dollar weakness, the price has not fallen below 100.00, allowing Gold to remain less attractive. The weakness of the Dollar was largely due to a softer tone by global central banks and weaker NFP data.

However, economists advise that they still expect the US Dollar Index to remain above 100.00 and possibly rise again, closer to 102.00. Recent reports note that even with a weaker NFP, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to hike more than other central banks. Particularly, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its USDJPY expectations from 155.00 to 165.00. According to Goldman Sachs, they expect the rate differentials to continue to remain wide.

Gold - Bullish Momentum Loss As USD Gains Momentum

After forming a double stop pattern during this morning’s Asian session, Gold fell 1.35% to a daily low. Investors are keen to see today’s early price movement due to Friday’s bank holiday. All metals are trading lower this morning except for Copper and Platinum, which are unchanged.

Markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. However, investors are unsure whether the Federal Reserve will hike on one, two or three occasions. Currently, only 22% of the market believes the Fed will not hike at all. This is also a similar stance to Citi, who believe the Fed talks hawkish but will not need to hike. According to the Chicago exchange, 42% of the market believe the Fed will hike on one occasion and 35% believe they will hike on more than one.

If the Federal Reserve is to hike on one occasion, the price of Gold will remain under pressure but potentially not decline to new lows. This is because one rate cut is partially priced into the market. However, if the Fed hikes on more than one occasion, Gold may struggle to maintain its value in the medium-term.
 

HFM - Gold 10-Minute Chart

Gold is showing bearish pressure on the 5-minute chart, with the price struggling below the immediate moving average at $4,161. As long as Gold remains below this area, potential downside targets sit at $4,151, $4,145, and $4,135. A break above $4,174 could shift momentum back towards $4,190–$4,202.

On the 30-minute chart, the outlook is mixed but still leans bearish in the near term. Shorter moving averages are pressuring the price, while longer moving averages continue to support the broader structure. However, regardless of bearish indications on some timeframes, traders should be cautious of corrections if the US Dollar Index retraces.

USDJPY - Goldman Sachs Increases Target to USDJPY

The USDJPY continues to be a favourite amongst investors looking for a carry trade, despite the Japanese intervention. The intervention from last week was successful in pushing the exchange rate away from the critical level above 163.00. However, this also gave a clear advantage to traders to purchase at a discounted price. The price is now witnessing strong upward price movement with clear bullish momentum.

Goldman Sachs has revised its USDJPY outlook higher, now expecting the JPY to weaken towards 165 per dollar over the next 12 months. This is due to higher US yields, Japan’s slower policy tightening and renewed demand for carry trades. The bank’s view suggests that even if Japanese authorities intervene, any JPY recovery may be short-lived. According to strategists at Goldman Sachs, the JPY can gain only if the US-Japan yield gap narrows.

For this reason, this week the USDJPY looks more attractive to buyers so far, but traders should be cautious of intervention volatility. Traders should also note that the USDCHF is also a popular carry trade at the moment.
 

HFM - USDJPY 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:

• Gold declined after three consecutive days of gains as the US Dollar attempted to recover.
• The US Dollar Index remains supported above 100.00, limiting Gold’s appeal despite recent Dollar weakness.
• Weaker NFP data softened Dollar momentum, but markets still expect the Fed to remain more hawkish than other central banks.
• Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure below $4,161 with downside targets at $4,144, $4,140, and $4,135.
• A break above $4,174 could shift Gold momentum higher towards $4,190–$4,202.
• Goldman Sachs raised its USDJPY forecast to 165, citing wide US-Japan rate differentials and renewed carry trade demand.
• USDJPY remains attractive to buyers, but traders should remain cautious of possible Japanese intervention and sharp volatility.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th July 2026.

Gold Slides Toward $4,000 as Tech Selloff Weighs on Global Markets.
 

Gold continues to decline downwards towards the $4,000 psychological price. The price of Gold is declining despite the global selloff in technology stocks and Dollar weakness. Investors continue to obtain indications of possible Gold weakness for the remaining months of 2026. The key reason for the lack of demand continues to be expectations of interest rate hikes and fears of the asset trading above its intrinsic value.

All metals trade lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, with Silver and Gold witnessing the largest declines. The US Dollar is the best performing currency of the day but has seen both up and down swings this way.

Gold - Weaker Gold-USD Correlation Indicates Lack of Demand and Momentum

Gold forms two lower highs and breaks below the most recent low, indicating a potential correction back to $4,000. Furthermore, investors have also seen a weaker correlation between Gold and the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index in 2026 has an average volatility level of 0.45%, and yesterday’s downward swing measured 0.35%. This is 78% of the average volatility. During the same period, Gold rose 0.98%, which is only 54% of the average volatility level.

The weakness in the Gold-USD correlation and lack of upward momentum provide a key indication for investors. If the price of the US Dollar Index rises above 100.84, the price of Gold is likely to witness strong short-term pressure.

Many analysts advise that the asset’s upward momentum appears unsustainable. Markets expect the US-Iran conflict to be resolved soon as diplomatic talks continue. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and rising shipping volumes point to normalisation in the Persian Gulf, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals.
 

HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart

JPMorgan Chase continues to expect Gold to average around $4,300 in Q3 and reach $4,500 in Q4. However, many economists are revising their target price lower. These target levels largely depend on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Currently, 23% of the market continues to expect the Fed to not hike in 2026. If the possibility of a pause rises, the price of Gold can also rise and reach these levels. If the figure falls and rate hikes become more likely, Gold is likely to fall back to previous support levels. These levels include $4,026 and $3,940.

NASDAQ - Samsung and Tech-Stocks Drive Global Indices Lower

All global indices are declining, with the NASDAQ and Asian indices particularly coming under pressure from sell orders. Certain stock exchanges in Asia this morning temporarily halted trading in order to continue the current selloff. The key reasons behind the weakness in demand are fear that the Technology Sector has become too expensive and Samsung’s earnings report.

Samsung reported a stronger-than-expected preliminary Q2 2026 earnings update this morning’s Asian session. The earnings report beat expectations by 6%, mainly driven by continued AI-related memory chip demand. Economists noted that despite the earnings beat and stronger-than-expected data, the results were not strong enough to impress shareholders, given the scale of previous AI-related investments. Furthermore, despite the record numbers, investors focused on concerns about how long the AI boom can last, sending the stock sharply lower.

Lastly, today before the US market opens, SpaceX will be added to the NASDAQ. Since SpaceX’s IPO on June 12th, the stock has seen both up and down impulse waves. The price is currently at $160.00, as per the IPO. Funds and ETFs that track the index need to buy the newly added stock, which can push its price higher in the short term.
 

HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart

If the NASDAQ continues to decline, traders will be keen to see the reaction of the index when the price reaches support levels. The key support levels can be seen at $29,108 and $28,944.
 

Key Takeaways:

• Gold remains under pressure, moving closer to the key $4,000 level despite Dollar weakness.
• Gold demand looks weak, with weaker Gold-USD correlation and limited upward momentum.
• Rate hike expectations remain the main risk for Gold, with key support levels at $4,026 and $3,940.
• Global tech stocks are selling off, led by pressure on Asian markets and Samsung’s sharp decline despite stronger earnings.
• NASDAQ remains vulnerable, with traders watching support at $29,108 and $28,944, while SpaceX’s index inclusion may create short-term buying demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.