HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 10th December 2025.

Job Data Point Towards a Hawkish Cut.
 

Most assets are trading sideways after the US JOLTS Job Openings came in much higher than previous expectations. Investors were previously hoping the figure would remain low to prompt a dovish Federal Reserve. However, the stronger labour data indicates the Fed may indeed cut rates but stick to a pause thereafter.

For this reason, Job Openings did not provide clarity on how the Federal Reserve may view its monetary policy. The market believes the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25-basis-points at tonight’s announcement. However, the guidance provided at the press conference thereafter is still not certain. If the Chairman, Jerome Powell, signals a pause for January, the US Dollar may rise while Gold and stocks decline.
 

NASDAQ & S&P500 - Lack of Direction

Due to the JOLTS Job Opening figures increasing the risk of the Federal Reserve opting for a ‘hawkish cut’, both indices traded sideways with a downward tilt. Out of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the NASDAQ performed better due to its exposure to growth stocks. However, the comments after tonight’s rate decision will be key to the performance of stocks over the next week.

The JOLTS Job Openings for October were 7.66 million, while for November they rose slightly to 7.67 million. Both announcements were significantly higher than what the market was expecting. November Job Openings were the highest seen since July 2025. Due to the positive data, the possibility of a rate cut tonight fell by 2%, and by 5% for a cut in January 2026.

A rate cut could provide some upward momentum, but as it's priced in, the guidance will be the main driver. Economists advise if the Fed indicates a pause for January, the S&P 500 could decline to $6,665. However, if rate cuts are likely to be frequent in 2026, the index could rise to $6,926.50 or even to an all-time high.
 

HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart

The US Dollar

The best-performing currencies of the past week have been the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. The worst-performing has been the Japanese Yen. For this reason, if the US Dollar declines, many investors will monitor the AUDUSD or EURUSD. The Euro has been the best performing currency of 2025. Whereas, if the US Dollar is to increase in value, investors may see opportunities within the USDJPY.

Some analysts expect policymakers to continue easing monetary policy in January, while others believe the current ‘dovish’ phase may pause for an extended period. The former scenario is viewed as more favourable for risk-on assets.

In this context, it’s worth highlighting recent remarks from President Donald Trump. He told Politico that he would require any nominee for Federal Reserve Chair to support an immediate cut to borrowing costs.

The President also said he would permit Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to ‘approved customers’ in China. The US government would allow this only if the company pays a 25% share of the profits from those transactions. According to Trump, Chinese President Xi welcomed the decision, suggesting an easing of tensions between the two economies.

The easing of tensions between the US and China is supporting the US Dollar, but its price movement would depend on the Federal Reserve.


 

HFM - USDJPY 1-Hour Chart
 

Key Takeaway Points:

• Higher-than-expected JOLTS data increased uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.
• A 25-basis-point rate cut is expected, but Jerome Powell’s guidance will drive markets.
• NASDAQ and S&P 500 traded sideways amid fears of a ‘hawkish cut.’
• Markets may fall if the Fed signals a January pause, but the US Dollar can benefit from this.
• USD movement depends on Fed guidance and easing US-China tensions supporting sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th December 2025.

Why Is the USD Declining?
 

The US Dollar Index is moving upwards but only after a bearish price gap. The bearish price gap saw the US Dollar Index instantly fall close to a two-month low. As a result, the price of Gold is trading significantly higher than the past few days. However, why is the US Dollar taking a hit when the Fed is indicating a pause?
 

What the Fed says and What Markets Believe Can Be Different

Investors continue to digest the outcome of yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-3.50% and announced the reinstatement of Treasury bond purchases totalling $40 billion. The QE programme being reinstated is a key reason why the US Dollar is weakening, as it is deemed to be a dovish move. This also indicates that the FOMC can see risks to the economy, government debt and employment.

At the same time, officials signalled the possibility of pausing the easing cycle, emphasising the need for clearer labour-market and inflation data, both of which remain key concerns, before taking further action.

The decision reflected a divided committee, passing by a vote of nine to three. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid opposed the rate cut, while Board member Stephen Miran argued for a larger 50-point reduction.

Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a balanced tone. He noted that an additional rate hike is not the baseline scenario, yet indicated that rates are now within a ‘neutral’ zone, giving the Fed room to adopt a wait-and-see stance to assess the impact of recent moves on the economy.

FOMC projections currently indicate only one rate cut next year. Market participants, however, still expect two or more. This mismatch is a major reason the Dollar is declining. Institutions and investors are not aligned with the Fed’s outlook for the next 12 months. Economists also highlight very low oil prices. These prices are likely to help keep inflation contained over the coming months.
 

US Dollar Index - Future Pricing

If the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate indicate a weaker employment sector, the pricing for the upcoming months is likely to change quickly. Particularly if the inflation rate also remains at the same level or lower. Under these conditions, the US Dollar may continue to fall and Gold to rise.


 

HFM - USDX 15-Minute Chart


A key support level for the US Dollar Index in the medium term is 97.40. Currently, the Dollar is retracing upwards but technical indicators continue to maintain a bearish bias.
 

Key Takeaways:

• The Dollar is weakening because markets view the Fed’s renewed $40B QE programme as a dovish signal.
• A major driver of Dollar pressure is the clear mismatch between the Fed’s forecast of one rate cut and markets expecting two or more.
• Rising risks in growth, inflation, and employment are highlighted by a divided FOMC vote and persistently low oil prices.
• If upcoming NFP and inflation data soften, the Dollar may continue to fall while Gold gains further momentum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th December 2025.

Asian Markets Slip as BOJ Rate Hike Looms; Bitcoin Under Pressure.
 

Asian equity markets opened the week lower, while bitcoin prices retreated as investors positioned ahead of a widely expected interest-rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) later this week. Broader risk sentiment remained fragile, with traders balancing central bank policy expectations, slowing Chinese growth signals, and renewed volatility in global technology stocks.
 

Japan Stocks Fall Despite Improving Business Sentiment

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index declined 1.3% to 50,168.11, even as the BOJ’s quarterly Tankan survey pointed to improving sentiment among large manufacturers. The diffusion index measuring optimism rose to 15 from 14 in the previous quarter, marking its highest level in four years.

The Tankan index reflects the percentage of firms reporting favourable business conditions minus those reporting unfavourable ones. While current conditions improved, expectations for the coming quarter were less optimistic, highlighting ongoing uncertainty in Japan’s economic outlook.

Japan’s economy contracted at an annualised pace of 2.3% in the July-September quarter, its first contraction in six quarters. However, uncertainty for export-heavy sectors eased following an agreement between Japan and the United States that limits baseline import tariffs to 15%, providing relief to major automakers and electronics manufacturers.
 

BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Pressure Bitcoin and Risk Assets

The stronger Tankan results reinforced market expectations that the BOJ will proceed with a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, lifting the benchmark rate to 0.75%. Higher domestic yields are expected to attract capital back into Japan, reducing demand for alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin prices dropped below $88,000 early on Monday from around $92,000 before recovering to just above $90,000 later in the session, according to CoinDesk data.
 

Chinese Markets Decline on Weak Investment Data

Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese equities moved lower after fresh data underscored persistent weakness in domestic demand. Government figures showed fixed-asset investment, including spending on infrastructure and factory equipment, fell 2.6% year-on-year in November. This implied an 11.1% decline over the first eleven months of the year.

Retail sales increased 4% over the January-November period, while industrial output rose 4.8%, offering limited reassurance amid broader concerns over economic momentum.

The data followed a high-level meeting of China’s Communist Party leadership last week, which delivered no major policy changes. Officials reiterated commitments to boosting consumer spending and investment to support domestic demand.

While policy support could drive a partial recovery in the coming months, it is unlikely to prevent China’s growth from remaining weak throughout 2026.
 

Asia-Pacific Market Performance Overview

• Hang Seng (Hong Kong): Fell 1.4% to 25,625.60
• Shanghai Composite: Declined 0.6% to 3,867.92
• Kospi (South Korea): Dropped 1.8% to 4,090.59
• ASX 200 (Australia): Slipped 0.7% to 8,640.60
• Taiwan Benchmark Index: Lost 1.2%
• India Sensex: Little changed

Wall Street Futures Stabilise After Tech-Led Sell-off

US equity futures pointed modestly higher, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.2% and Dow Jones futures up 0.3%. On Friday, Wall Street retreated from record highs, with the S&P 500 falling 1.1% for its worst session in three weeks. Technology stocks led the decline, dragging the Nasdaq Composite down 1.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.5%.

Broadcom weighed heavily on market sentiment, plunging 11.4% despite reporting quarterly profits that exceeded analyst expectations. While analysts described the results as solid, investor concerns surrounding the sustainability of the artificial-intelligence rally intensified. Oracle fell nearly 11% despite delivering a profit beat, fuelling broader worries about AI-related valuations. Nvidia shares declined 3.3%, while Oracle extended losses with an additional 4.5% drop.
 

Markets Update

In early Monday trading, US crude oil rose 26 cents to $57.70 per barrel, while Brent crude added 29 cents to $61.41 per barrel.

The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, slipping to 155.16 from 155.92 late Friday. The euro edged lower to $1.1733 from $1.1739.
 

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Remain Range-Bound

Bitcoin traded near $89,000 as Hong Kong markets reopened after the weekend, surrendering last week’s post-Federal Reserve rally. FlowDesk noted that demand faded quickly once the 25-basis-point Fed rate cut was delivered, with liquidity thinning into year-end.




 

Bitcoin and Ether retraced midweek highs, while altcoins remained under pressure. The broader crypto market continues to reflect macro-driven caution rather than outright risk aversion.

Despite surface-level hesitation, positioning beneath the market remains relatively stable. In a Telegram note, FlowDesk highlighted that leverage remains low, volatility is muted, and capital is rotating towards short-dated yield. Market participants are locking in longer-term funding at compressed rates, signalling a focus on balance-sheet optimisation rather than directional trades.

Glassnode observed that bitcoin’s range-bound price action has prompted renewed buying from digital-asset treasury companies. Periods of reduced accumulation by such buyers have previously been cited as a factor behind bitcoin’s stagnation earlier in the year.

This combination of cautious trading and quiet accumulation has left bitcoin confined to a broad trading range, with upside momentum fading but downside pressure remaining limited. Until leverage returns or macro conditions prompt accelerated treasury buying, price action is likely to stay subdued, even as ownership shifts toward longer-term holders.
 

Market Movement Snapshot

• Bitcoin (BTC): Trading near $89,000, constrained by low liquidity and weak follow-through after giving back post-Fed gains.
• Ethereum (ETH): Showing relative resilience, holding gains better than Bitcoin amid selective demand and lower selling pressure.
• Gold: Consolidating near record highs around $4,300 per ounce, supported by global rate cuts, elevated debt levels, and sustained central bank demand.
• Nikkei 225: Asian markets opened lower as investors assessed Wall Street’s pullback, China’s November activity data, and Japan’s improving business sentiment.

 

Oil Prices Edge Higher Amid Glut Concerns and Geopolitical Risks

Oil prices rose modestly from the lowest levels in nearly two months, supported by signs of stronger Chinese demand even as oversupply concerns continue to weigh on the market. Brent crude hovered near $62 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded close to $58 in thin holiday trading ahead of Christmas and New Year.

China’s apparent oil demand and refining activity were higher year-on-year in November, though other economic indicators pointed to broader weakness. Oil prices are on track for an annual decline amid expectations of a growing surplus as OPEC+ and other producers increase output despite soft demand growth.

Oversupply concerns are increasingly evident in Middle Eastern crude markets, although geopolitical risks continue to provide a floor under prices.

Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure over the weekend, striking a major refinery and an oil depot in an effort to disrupt revenue streams funding Moscow’s war effort. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump dispatched envoys to Berlin for another round of talks aimed at ending the conflict.

In parallel, Iran reported seizing a foreign tanker in the Gulf of Oman suspected of carrying smuggled fuel, while the United States intercepted a vessel off Venezuela as pressure mounts on President Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Trump has also reiterated threats of US strikes against drug cartels.

With Brent crude trading volumes below daily averages, price movements are likely to be amplified, increasing the risk of choppy and volatile market conditions.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.