HFM Posted Wednesday at 10:15 AM Author Posted Wednesday at 10:15 AM Date: 10th December 2025. Job Data Point Towards a Hawkish Cut. Most assets are trading sideways after the US JOLTS Job Openings came in much higher than previous expectations. Investors were previously hoping the figure would remain low to prompt a dovish Federal Reserve. However, the stronger labour data indicates the Fed may indeed cut rates but stick to a pause thereafter. For this reason, Job Openings did not provide clarity on how the Federal Reserve may view its monetary policy. The market believes the Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25-basis-points at tonight’s announcement. However, the guidance provided at the press conference thereafter is still not certain. If the Chairman, Jerome Powell, signals a pause for January, the US Dollar may rise while Gold and stocks decline. NASDAQ & S&P500 - Lack of Direction Due to the JOLTS Job Opening figures increasing the risk of the Federal Reserve opting for a ‘hawkish cut’, both indices traded sideways with a downward tilt. Out of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the NASDAQ performed better due to its exposure to growth stocks. However, the comments after tonight’s rate decision will be key to the performance of stocks over the next week. The JOLTS Job Openings for October were 7.66 million, while for November they rose slightly to 7.67 million. Both announcements were significantly higher than what the market was expecting. November Job Openings were the highest seen since July 2025. Due to the positive data, the possibility of a rate cut tonight fell by 2%, and by 5% for a cut in January 2026. A rate cut could provide some upward momentum, but as it's priced in, the guidance will be the main driver. Economists advise if the Fed indicates a pause for January, the S&P 500 could decline to $6,665. However, if rate cuts are likely to be frequent in 2026, the index could rise to $6,926.50 or even to an all-time high. HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour Chart The US Dollar The best-performing currencies of the past week have been the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. The worst-performing has been the Japanese Yen. For this reason, if the US Dollar declines, many investors will monitor the AUDUSD or EURUSD. The Euro has been the best performing currency of 2025. Whereas, if the US Dollar is to increase in value, investors may see opportunities within the USDJPY. Some analysts expect policymakers to continue easing monetary policy in January, while others believe the current ‘dovish’ phase may pause for an extended period. The former scenario is viewed as more favourable for risk-on assets. In this context, it’s worth highlighting recent remarks from President Donald Trump. He told Politico that he would require any nominee for Federal Reserve Chair to support an immediate cut to borrowing costs. The President also said he would permit Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to ‘approved customers’ in China. The US government would allow this only if the company pays a 25% share of the profits from those transactions. According to Trump, Chinese President Xi welcomed the decision, suggesting an easing of tensions between the two economies. The easing of tensions between the US and China is supporting the US Dollar, but its price movement would depend on the Federal Reserve. HFM - USDJPY 1-Hour Chart Key Takeaway Points: Higher-than-expected JOLTS data increased uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. A 25-basis-point rate cut is expected, but Jerome Powell’s guidance will drive markets. NASDAQ and S&P 500 traded sideways amid fears of a ‘hawkish cut.’ Markets may fall if the Fed signals a January pause, but the US Dollar can benefit from this. USD movement depends on Fed guidance and easing US-China tensions supporting sentiment. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFM Posted 1 hour ago Author Posted 1 hour ago Date: 12th December 2025. Why Is the USD Declining? The US Dollar Index is moving upwards but only after a bearish price gap. The bearish price gap saw the US Dollar Index instantly fall close to a two-month low. As a result, the price of Gold is trading significantly higher than the past few days. However, why is the US Dollar taking a hit when the Fed is indicating a pause? What the Fed says and What Markets Believe Can Be Different Investors continue to digest the outcome of yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-3.50% and announced the reinstatement of Treasury bond purchases totalling $40 billion. The QE programme being reinstated is a key reason why the US Dollar is weakening, as it is deemed to be a dovish move. This also indicates that the FOMC can see risks to the economy, government debt and employment. At the same time, officials signalled the possibility of pausing the easing cycle, emphasising the need for clearer labour-market and inflation data, both of which remain key concerns, before taking further action. The decision reflected a divided committee, passing by a vote of nine to three. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid opposed the rate cut, while Board member Stephen Miran argued for a larger 50-point reduction. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a balanced tone. He noted that an additional rate hike is not the baseline scenario, yet indicated that rates are now within a ‘neutral’ zone, giving the Fed room to adopt a wait-and-see stance to assess the impact of recent moves on the economy. FOMC projections currently indicate only one rate cut next year. Market participants, however, still expect two or more. This mismatch is a major reason the Dollar is declining. Institutions and investors are not aligned with the Fed’s outlook for the next 12 months. Economists also highlight very low oil prices. These prices are likely to help keep inflation contained over the coming months. US Dollar Index - Future Pricing If the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate indicate a weaker employment sector, the pricing for the upcoming months is likely to change quickly. Particularly if the inflation rate also remains at the same level or lower. Under these conditions, the US Dollar may continue to fall and Gold to rise. HFM - USDX 15-Minute Chart A key support level for the US Dollar Index in the medium term is 97.40. Currently, the Dollar is retracing upwards but technical indicators continue to maintain a bearish bias. Key Takeaways: The Dollar is weakening because markets view the Fed’s renewed $40B QE programme as a dovish signal. A major driver of Dollar pressure is the clear mismatch between the Fed’s forecast of one rate cut and markets expecting two or more. Rising risks in growth, inflation, and employment are highlighted by a divided FOMC vote and persistently low oil prices. If upcoming NFP and inflation data soften, the Dollar may continue to fall while Gold gains further momentum. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now