HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 3rd November 2025.

Global Markets Open November with Optimism Amid Key Central Bank Decisions and Data Releases.
 

Global markets began the week on a positive note, with investors aiming to extend October’s rally into November. As fresh central bank decisions, key employment data, and PMI data line up across major economies, traders are watching for clues on how monetary policy and global growth will shape the final stretch of 2025.
 

Wall Street Extends October’s Momentum

US stock futures climbed early Monday, signalling a continuation of October’s rally. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, and Dow Jones futures added 0.1%.

October was a strong month for equities, with the S&P 500 up 2.3%, the Dow rising 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 4.7%. Investors continued to favourgrowth and AI-linked stocks, with Big Tech and the ‘Magnificent Seven’ driving gains. Optimism also improved on signs of easing US-China trade tensions, supporting risk appetite.
 

Washington in Focus as Shutdown Drags On

Despite the upbeat start, focus remains fixed on Washington’s political deadlock. The US government shutdown, now entering its fifth week, continues to delay key economic data-including the highly anticipated US jobs report.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is preparing to hear arguments on the legality of former President Trump’s tariffs, a case that could shape future trade policy.

Earnings season also remains in full swing, with nearly 300 S&P 500 companies having reported Q3 results and over 100 more-including Palantir (PLTR), Super Micro (SMCI), and AMD (AMD)-set to announce this week.


 

 

Data-Focused Week Ahead

With limited official data available due to the ongoing government shutdown, investors are turning to private-sector surveys for guidance.

This week’s highlights include:
 

• Monday: Manufacturing PMI data for the US, Eurozone, UK, and Canada.
• Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision and New Zealand employment report.
• Thursday: Bank of England (BoE) interest rate announcement.
• Friday: Canada’s employment figures and US consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve (FOMC) officials are set to speak, although the lack of fresh data complicates the Fed’s assessment ahead of its December meeting.

Several FOMC members are also scheduled to speak, though the ongoing shutdown complicates the Fed’s preparation ahead of its December policy meeting.

The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.4, up slightly from 49.1 in September, while the prices index is forecast at 62.4. Although the sector remains in contractionary territory, the modest rise suggests firms are adapting to trade pressures and clearing backlogs.

Analysts at Wells Fargo note that while input costs and tariffs continue to weigh on output, the pace of decline is easing, hinting at early signs of stabilisation in US manufacturing.
 

Australia: RBA Expected to Hold Rates as Inflation Still Running Hot

The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate steady this week, as policymakers weigh sticky inflation against early signs of a softer labour market. Analysts suggest another rate cut could come as early as February, though this would depend on a further cooling in employment conditions.

While inflation remains above the target range, policy is already restrictive, and the central bank is seen continue its easing cycle into next year. Westpac forecasts a 25 bp rate cut in May 2026, followed by additional reductions later in the year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to around 3.10%.

Unemployment is projected to rise toward 4.6% by late 2026, with consumer spending expected to weaken if monetary conditions remain tight.


 

New Zealand: Labour Market Loosens Further

In New Zealand, employment is expected to grow 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, with the unemployment rate rising modestly from 5.2% to 5.3%.

Analysts at Westpac note that while monthly hiring has stabilized, job creation continues to lag behind population growth, creating a slack in the labour market. As a result, wage growth has cooled, aligning more closely with inflation near 2%-a sign that pressures in the job market are gradually easing.
 

United Kingdom: BoE to Keep Cautious Tone

The Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.00%, maintaining a careful balance between persistent inflation and signs of resilience in the broader economy.

Services inflation remains elevated, even as wage growth cools and the labour market softens. Recent GDP data exceeded expectations, although looming fiscal tightening in the upcoming Autumn Budget (26 November) could weigh on growth and reinforce the disinflationary trend.

Markets will closely watch the BoE’s updated forecasts and tone for any hints of a rate cut at the December meeting, though officials are likely to signal patience.


 

 

Canada: Job Market Steady Despite Recent Swings

Canada’s upcoming jobs report is expected to show a 4,000 decline in employment, following a 60,400 surge in September, with the jobless rate seen ticking up to 7.2%. However, RBC expects a modest gain of around 10,000 jobs, citing stable online job postings and limited layoffs.

Job losses have been concentrated in manufacturing and transport, while broader employment remains firm. Despite a surprise GDP dip in August, revisions to prior months suggest the economy remains on track for 0.5% quarterly growth in Q4.

Attention will also turn to Tuesday’s federal budget, where potential fiscal measures could provide additional support for growth into 2025.
 

Gold Retreats Below $4,000 After China’s Tax Shift

Gold prices slipped below $4,000 per ounce on Monday after China removed a key tax incentive for local retailers. Beijing’s decision, announced Saturday, ends the ability for retailers to offset value-added tax (VAT) on gold purchased from the Shanghai Gold Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The move triggered a 1% decline in Asian trading, extending gold’s retreat from record highs earlier in October. Despite the correction, gold remains over 50% higher year-to-date, supported by central bank demand and safe-haven flows.

‘China’s tax changes may dent sentiment temporarily,’ said Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault, ‘but this could offer traders a welcome opportunity for a deeper correction after last month’s spike.’
 

Outlook

The week ahead promises a dense mix of economic releases and central bank decisions that could set the tone for November. With the US government shutdown limiting official data and global policymakers signalling a cautious stance, traders will look to private surveys and corporate earnings for direction.

As 2025 enters its final stretch, the market’s ability to sustain October’s optimism may hinge on whether growth remains resilient in the face of policy uncertainty and fading stimulus.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 4th November 2025.

Asian Markets Retreat as Traders Lock in Profits Despite AI Optimism.
 

Asian shares retreated on Tuesday, tracking losses in US futures, as investors across the region took profits after a strong rally driven by AI-related optimism in global markets.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.7% to 51,497.20, slipping back after a national holiday and following recent record highs. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.4% to 4,121.74, reversing from its own recent rally, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.9% to 8,813.70.

In Greater China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index erased early gains to end 0.6% lower at 25,983.29, and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.4% to 3,960.19, as investors booked profits amid caution over the sustainability of the AI-driven tech surge.
 

Wall Street Mixed as AI Heavyweights Power Gains

Overnight, US markets posted mixed results as AI enthusiasm once again lifted major indices. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, edging closer to last week’s all-time high, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, slipped 0.5%, or 226 points, reflecting pressure from non-tech sectors.

Nvidia remained a dominant force, rising 2.2% to extend its year-to-date gain to 54%. Amazon surged 4% after announcing a $38 billion partnership with OpenAI, under which the AI firm will use Amazon’s cloud infrastructure for its workloads.

AI-related momentum also lifted IREN, which jumped 11.5% after securing a $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft that grants access to Nvidia’s chips. Palantir Technologies, up 165% year-to-date prior to earnings, added another 3.3% ahead of its results.
 

Concerns Over Valuations and Earnings Sustainability

Despite the ongoing tech rally, analysts are voicing concerns that the AI sector’s valuations may be overheating, drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble of 2000. Still, corporate results have largely supported the gains-80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded analysts’ profit forecasts so far, according to FactSet.

With two-thirds of quarterly results in, companies in the S&P 500 are on pace for nearly 11% year-on-year earnings growth, keeping investors cautiously optimistic.

However, some deals raised eyebrows on Wall Street. Kimberly-Clark plunged 14.6% after announcing the $48.7 billion acquisition of Kenvue, which rallied 12.3% on the news. The transaction has sparked debate about the cost and strategic value of large-cap consumer deals in a tightening economic environment.
 

Economic Headwinds: Manufacturing and Tariff Pressures

Economic sentiment was dented by a disappointing US manufacturing report, which showed activity contracting more sharply than expected in October. Several manufacturers cited tariff-related pressures under President Donald Trump’s administration, highlighting the impact of trade policies on input costs.

Investors are also growing concerned about delays in key US economic data releases, including the non-farm payrolls report, due to the ongoing government shutdown in Washington.


 

 

Futures Point to a Lower US Open

In early Tuesday trading, US benchmark crude slipped $0.21 to $60.84 a barrel, while Brent crude fell $0.22 to $64.67. The US dollar weakened slightly, trading at 153.64 against the Japanese yen from 154.21 earlier. The euro was marginally softer at 1.1524.

Ahead of the New York session, US stock futures signaled weakness, suggesting a cautious open. Dow futures dropped 0.5%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.8%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.1%, reflecting potential profit-taking after tech’s strong start to the week.

As investors digest fresh earnings from AMD, Uber, Spotify, and Supermicro later today, the focus remains squarely on whether AI and cloud-related spending can continue to justify elevated market valuations amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainties.
 

Key Takeaway

While the AI revolution continues to drive enthusiasm and lift major US benchmarks, signs of profit-taking in Asia, valuation anxiety, and economic headwinds suggest markets could be entering a period of consolidation. Traders are now watching whether the next wave of corporate earnings, and Washington’s ability to resolve the shutdown, will sustain investor confidence or trigger a broader pullback.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.