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Date: 3rd November 2025.

Global Markets Open November with Optimism Amid Key Central Bank Decisions and Data Releases.
 

Global markets began the week on a positive note, with investors aiming to extend October’s rally into November. As fresh central bank decisions, key employment data, and PMI data line up across major economies, traders are watching for clues on how monetary policy and global growth will shape the final stretch of 2025.
 

Wall Street Extends October’s Momentum

US stock futures climbed early Monday, signalling a continuation of October’s rally. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, and Dow Jones futures added 0.1%.

October was a strong month for equities, with the S&P 500 up 2.3%, the Dow rising 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 4.7%. Investors continued to favourgrowth and AI-linked stocks, with Big Tech and the ‘Magnificent Seven’ driving gains. Optimism also improved on signs of easing US-China trade tensions, supporting risk appetite.
 

Washington in Focus as Shutdown Drags On

Despite the upbeat start, focus remains fixed on Washington’s political deadlock. The US government shutdown, now entering its fifth week, continues to delay key economic data-including the highly anticipated US jobs report.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is preparing to hear arguments on the legality of former President Trump’s tariffs, a case that could shape future trade policy.

Earnings season also remains in full swing, with nearly 300 S&P 500 companies having reported Q3 results and over 100 more-including Palantir (PLTR), Super Micro (SMCI), and AMD (AMD)-set to announce this week.


 

 

Data-Focused Week Ahead

With limited official data available due to the ongoing government shutdown, investors are turning to private-sector surveys for guidance.

This week’s highlights include:
 

• Monday: Manufacturing PMI data for the US, Eurozone, UK, and Canada.
• Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision and New Zealand employment report.
• Thursday: Bank of England (BoE) interest rate announcement.
• Friday: Canada’s employment figures and US consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve (FOMC) officials are set to speak, although the lack of fresh data complicates the Fed’s assessment ahead of its December meeting.

Several FOMC members are also scheduled to speak, though the ongoing shutdown complicates the Fed’s preparation ahead of its December policy meeting.

The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.4, up slightly from 49.1 in September, while the prices index is forecast at 62.4. Although the sector remains in contractionary territory, the modest rise suggests firms are adapting to trade pressures and clearing backlogs.

Analysts at Wells Fargo note that while input costs and tariffs continue to weigh on output, the pace of decline is easing, hinting at early signs of stabilisation in US manufacturing.
 

Australia: RBA Expected to Hold Rates as Inflation Still Running Hot

The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate steady this week, as policymakers weigh sticky inflation against early signs of a softer labour market. Analysts suggest another rate cut could come as early as February, though this would depend on a further cooling in employment conditions.

While inflation remains above the target range, policy is already restrictive, and the central bank is seen continue its easing cycle into next year. Westpac forecasts a 25 bp rate cut in May 2026, followed by additional reductions later in the year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to around 3.10%.

Unemployment is projected to rise toward 4.6% by late 2026, with consumer spending expected to weaken if monetary conditions remain tight.


 

New Zealand: Labour Market Loosens Further

In New Zealand, employment is expected to grow 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, with the unemployment rate rising modestly from 5.2% to 5.3%.

Analysts at Westpac note that while monthly hiring has stabilized, job creation continues to lag behind population growth, creating a slack in the labour market. As a result, wage growth has cooled, aligning more closely with inflation near 2%-a sign that pressures in the job market are gradually easing.
 

United Kingdom: BoE to Keep Cautious Tone

The Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.00%, maintaining a careful balance between persistent inflation and signs of resilience in the broader economy.

Services inflation remains elevated, even as wage growth cools and the labour market softens. Recent GDP data exceeded expectations, although looming fiscal tightening in the upcoming Autumn Budget (26 November) could weigh on growth and reinforce the disinflationary trend.

Markets will closely watch the BoE’s updated forecasts and tone for any hints of a rate cut at the December meeting, though officials are likely to signal patience.


 

 

Canada: Job Market Steady Despite Recent Swings

Canada’s upcoming jobs report is expected to show a 4,000 decline in employment, following a 60,400 surge in September, with the jobless rate seen ticking up to 7.2%. However, RBC expects a modest gain of around 10,000 jobs, citing stable online job postings and limited layoffs.

Job losses have been concentrated in manufacturing and transport, while broader employment remains firm. Despite a surprise GDP dip in August, revisions to prior months suggest the economy remains on track for 0.5% quarterly growth in Q4.

Attention will also turn to Tuesday’s federal budget, where potential fiscal measures could provide additional support for growth into 2025.
 

Gold Retreats Below $4,000 After China’s Tax Shift

Gold prices slipped below $4,000 per ounce on Monday after China removed a key tax incentive for local retailers. Beijing’s decision, announced Saturday, ends the ability for retailers to offset value-added tax (VAT) on gold purchased from the Shanghai Gold Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The move triggered a 1% decline in Asian trading, extending gold’s retreat from record highs earlier in October. Despite the correction, gold remains over 50% higher year-to-date, supported by central bank demand and safe-haven flows.

‘China’s tax changes may dent sentiment temporarily,’ said Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault, ‘but this could offer traders a welcome opportunity for a deeper correction after last month’s spike.’
 

Outlook

The week ahead promises a dense mix of economic releases and central bank decisions that could set the tone for November. With the US government shutdown limiting official data and global policymakers signalling a cautious stance, traders will look to private surveys and corporate earnings for direction.

As 2025 enters its final stretch, the market’s ability to sustain October’s optimism may hinge on whether growth remains resilient in the face of policy uncertainty and fading stimulus.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

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