HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 25th September 2025.

 

What Can Revive The NASDAQ?

 

US indices continue to form bearish price patterns after Monday’s bullish spike set off pending orders and profit-taking. The bullish movement from the past weeks is largely due to projections for rate cuts as well as AI developments. However, the NASDAQ is up almost 14% in 2025 and trading close to all-time highs. For this reason, profit-taking is likely to occur.

 

What Can Prompt The Continuation Of the Upward Trend?

While the NASDAQ remains at all-time highs, investors will only be comfortable purchasing with confirmation of new, concrete price drivers. The main downside risk to the stock market is the lack of interest rate cuts from the Fed, the weakening employment sector and geopolitical tensions.

 

Therefore, in order for demand to regain momentum and continue to push to all-time highs, investors would like to see these 3 factors not materialise. The first requirement that investors would like to see is interest rate cuts for October and December.

 

According to Wall Street Strategist, the NASDAQ and the general stock market are not likely to continue their current trend if we do not see a minimum of 2 rate adjustments. Currently, there is a 91% chance of a 0.25% cut in October and a 74% chance for December. If economic data, such as higher inflation or a higher PCE Price Index, lowers the possibility of rate cuts, the NASDAQ is likely to retrace lower.

 

Upcoming US News

For this reason, the upcoming US Gross Domestic Product, Unemployment Claims and Durable Goods Orders are likely to be key. Ideally, investors would like to see the GDP figure read as expected, slightly higher Durable Goods and weaker Unemployment Claims. This would prompt investors to continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates, but the economy is not at significant risk of a recession.

 

The week’s main announcement will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the PCE Price Index to remain at 2.9%, but traders looking to speculate upward price movement would prefer the figure to read lower. If the PCE Price Index falls to 2.8% the NASDAQ is likely to see bullish price movement return. However, if the PCE Price Index rises to 3.00%, the decline is potentially likely to continue.

 

The Federal Reserve

In terms of commentary from the Federal Open Market Committee, most members are providing a slightly dovish tone. The latest being San Francisco’s Mary Daly, who told journalists on Wednesday, 24th, that rate cuts are likely. However, the Chairman is less convinced.

 

The Chairman (Jerome Powell) stressed a cautious approach to monetary policy, noting the need to weigh risks from both a cooling labour market and rising inflation. He said the current 4.0–4.25% rate is high enough to contain price pressures while leaving room for quick adjustments.

 

Earnings Reports and Fundamental Indications

Lastly, October will see the start of the 3rd quarter’s quarterly earnings reports. The first earnings report which will directly influence the NASDAQ is Netflix, which is due to release its report on October 21st. Tesla will release its report the day after. Tesla is currently the 7th most influential company on the NASDAQ, while Netflix is the 9th.

 

The results of the quarterly reports from the technology sector will be key for the NASDAQ, but it is not likely to start influencing investors until October 6th.

 

 

 

NASDAQ (USA100) 1-Hour Chart

 

 

In terms of Indications from Fundamental factors, the signals remain neutral with a slight bias towards a bullish trend. The VIX is trading lower this morning, but is still higher every week. The lower VIX is positive for the day, but only if the VIX continues to decline.

 

Lastly, the Put to Call Order Ratio is slightly higher and moved away from its recent low. This is positive as the extremely low Ratio tends to indicate an overbought price for the NASDAQ. The High Low Index for the NASDAQ has also slightly retraced, but remains high, which also provides a bullish bias for the long-term.

 

Key Takeaways:

• The NASDAQ’s rally is driven by AI optimism and expected Fed rate cuts. However, profit-taking pressures have driven the price lower.
• Sustained upward momentum depends on at least two Fed rate cuts, with markets pricing in October and December moves.
• Upcoming US economic data, especially the Core PCE Price Index, will be critical for confirming future market direction. If the PCE falls to 2.8% the NASDAQ may rebound, but a rise to 3.0% could extend declines.
• Tech earnings season, starting with Netflix and Tesla, will play a key role in shaping NASDAQ sentiment in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[234kgen]

On 9/23/2025 at 9:57 AM, HFM said:

Date: 23rd September 2025.

 

Wall Street Hits Third Record in a Row as Nvidia’s $100 Billion OpenAI Deal Sparks Big Tech Rally.

 

US stocks extended their winning streak on Monday, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all closing at fresh records, driven by a surge in megacap technology shares led by Nvidia.

 

 

 

Major Indexes Keep Breaking Records

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 0.2% to finish at 46,381.54. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose nearly 0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 0.7% for its third consecutive all-time high.

 

Nvidia Leads Big Tech Gains With $100 Billion OpenAI Investment

AI-chip leader Nvidia (NVDA) jumped almost 4% to a record close of $183.61 after announcing plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT. The landmark deal includes a commitment to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia chips to power OpenAI’s AI infrastructure beginning in 2026.

 

Other tech giants also gained. Apple (AAPL) rose more than 4% to its highest level since December 2024 after Wedbush boosted its price target to $310. Tesla (TSLA) extended its bull run, rallying near a 2025 high on expectations for self-driving products and CEO Elon Musk’s $1 billion stock purchase last week. Oracle (ORCL) climbed 6% after being officially named as a lead investor in the new US-based TikTok venture.

 

 

 

 

 

ASML, Constellation and Vistra Catch Analyst Upgrades

ASML Holding (ASML), the critical supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) chipmaking machines, jumped almost 3% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight with a €950 ($1,120) target, citing strengthening AI-driven demand.
Nuclear-energy names Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) also rallied after a bullish Scotiabank call amid soaring data-centre power needs.

 

Gold Hits Record, Crypto Slides on Liquidations

Safe-haven gold (GC=F) surged to a new all-time high above $3,750 per ounce as traders priced in two more Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end 2025.
In contrast, bitcoin (BTC-USD) and other cryptocurrencies tumbled, with more than $1.5 billion in bullish positions liquidated overnight. Ether (ETH-USD) fell 6%, Solana (SOL-USD) lost more than 7%, and Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) dropped 10%.

 

What’s Next: PCE Data and Fed Speakers in Focus

Markets now turn to Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. A softer-than-expected reading could strengthen expectations of an October rate cut. Traders will also parse remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and newly installed governor Stephen Miran, who on Monday said interest rates should be about two percentage points lower.

 

At the same time, investors are watching for fallout from President Trump’s new immigration visa fee plan, which has already prompted urgent internal memos at Microsoft (MSFT) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

Andria Pichidi

HFMarkets

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

The moment I saw the NVDA news, I figured it was only up from there. Opened a long on Bitget RWA index futures perps and closed with a solid profit. A few years ago, this kind of move wouldn’t have been possible for me. Now, with tokenized stocks available on Bitget, I can react to market movers instantly whenever opportunities pop up

[HFM]

Date: 26th September 2025.

 

Strong Data and Tariffs Complicate Fed Rate-Cut Decision.

 

Is good news bad news? US economic data from Thursday was surprisingly much higher than previous projections. The data largely relates to economic growth, economic activity as well as the employment sector. Even though good news can support sentiment, it can also make the Federal Open Market Committee consider less frequent cuts. As a result, the stock market declines close to a 10-day low.

The SNP500, which is a good representation of the whole US stock market, declined for a 3rd consecutive day. Even the Dow Jones, which includes higher exposure to defensive stocks, falls 2.00% from its recent highs. Even if the positive economic data did not raise concerns about fewer rate adjustments, the new tariffs announced by President Trump last night have nonetheless prompted a clear shift toward a ‘risk-off’ sentiment.

 

SNP500 (USA500) 30-Minute Chart

 

Positive News Triggering Lower Demand For Stocks

The US made public a total of 6 separate figures on Thursday afternoon. The most impactful release was the US Final Gross Domestic Product which rose from 3.3% to 3.8%. Previously economists were expecting the figure to remain unchanged. Also highly influential, the Unemployment Claims which read 218,000, the lowest since July 2025 and lower than previous projections.

Economists were also expecting the Durable Goods Order to decline between 0.1% to 0.3% due to tariff uncertainties and lack of local demand. However, the Durable Goods Orders rose 2.9% indicating that economic activity and demand remains high. Lastly, Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales rose above expectations adding the investor’s sentiment.

At the time of the news being made public, the SNP500 was already trading significantly lower than the day’s open price. When the news was released the price rose forming a retracement, potentially due to the news improving the outlook for the economy. However, eventually the price fell again to a new low as investors contemplated the implications for data for the Fed.

Changes To The Federal Reserve’s

Due to the poor employment data and lack of upward pressure on inflation in the past two months, investors are expecting slow but frequent rate cuts. Currently economists are expecting a 0.25% cut in October and a similar cut in December.

According to Strategists, without these two cuts, the stock market would be trading above its intrinsic value. Much of the increased demand seen in August and September stems from expectations of rate cuts. If those projections do not materialize, a correction may be a possibility.

Due to the strong economic data the possibility of a rate cut in October fell from 92% to 85% until slightly rising back to 87%. However, December’s rate cut possibility fell significantly declining from 73.3% to just above 60%. For this reason, investors will continue to monitor economic and employment data to determine if the Federal Reserve will indeed cut on two occasions. At this point, it remains the most likely scenario.

More Tariffs Pressuring Stocks

On Thursday evening, President Donald Trump confirmed the new tariffs which will take effect on October 1st. The new tariffs include the following:

• 100% on pharmaceuticals until the company is in the process of moving to the States.
• 25% on heavy trucks
• 50% on kitchen and bathroom cabinets
• 30% on certain furnitures

The tariffs are adding to the “risk-off” sentiment which can also be seen by the rising VIX Index and Lower High-Low Index.

Core PCE Price Index

Today’s price movement will largely depend on the Core PCE Price Index. If the index reads higher than expected, the SNP500 can see more downward pressure, potentially to the $6,556.30 support level. However, if the figure is lower than expectations (0.2%), a correction back to $6,706.65 becomes possible.

 

Key Takeaways:

1. Strong US economic data beat expectations, raising concerns about fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts.
2. US GDP rose from 3.3% to 3.8%, while unemployment claims fell to 218,000, beating forecasts.
3. The probability of an October rate cut dropped from 92% to 85%, December odds fell sharply.
4. Trump announced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, trucks, furniture, and cabinets effective October 1.
5. Rising tariffs and strong data fueled “risk-off” sentiment, pressuring equities and lifting volatility indexes. However, upcoming performance depends on today’s Core PCE Price Index.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 29th September 2025.

 

US Futures Advance as Shutdown Deadline Nears.

 

US stock futures pushed higher on Monday morning as traders braced for a potential federal government shutdown later this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and S&P 500 futures both gained about 0.4%, while contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%. With funding for the government set to expire as early as Wednesday, investors are unsure whether crucial data releases, especially Friday’s closely watched monthly employment report, will go ahead as planned. The figures feed directly into the Federal Reserve’s view of the economy and into expectations for interest-rate cuts that have helped power recent market gains. A meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders scheduled for Monday is widely seen as one of the last chances to avert a shutdown.

Economic data released last week added to the uncertainty. Initial jobless claims came in lower than projected and GDP growth was revised higher, prompting debate over whether the Fed will slow policy as much as markets have priced in. Wall Street economists now see the September payroll report showing 43,000 new jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%.

Stocks Recover from a Losing Week

Markets are also regrouping after a soft week marked by weakness in artificial-intelligence-linked shares and an unexpected round of tariff announcements from President Trump for October 1. All three major indices declined: the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% for its worst weekly performance since early August; the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.2%, breaking a three-week winning streak.

Even so, equities remain on track to finish September and the third quarter with gains. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 is ahead 2.8%, the Dow is up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq, buoyed by technology names, has climbed 2.9%.

Corporate news is light this week. Nike reports on Wednesday in what’s expected to be the most significant earnings release, while Carnival posts results Monday. Big banks will launch the third-quarter earnings season in mid-October.

Precious Metals Hit Fresh Highs

Gold jumped as much as 1.4% to a record $3,812.05 an ounce, surpassing last Tuesday’s peak and extending its winning streak to six weeks. Silver rose 2.4%, while platinum and palladium also rallied, supported by tight supply and continued inflows into metal-backed exchange-traded funds.

The dollar weakened ahead of Monday’s meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders, with government funding set to run out Tuesday if no temporary spending deal is struck. A weaker greenback typically boosts demand for precious metals priced in dollars. A shutdown could also delay the release of Friday’s jobs report.

 

 

Subdued employment figures would strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts at the October policy meeting, a scenario that usually benefits non-interest-bearing assets like gold and silver. Still, policymakers remain divided on how quickly to ease, particularly after some recent economic surprises to the upside.

 

 

Oil Slides on Supply Signals

Oil prices retreated as signs of another OPEC+ production increase in November, coupled with the restart of a key Iraqi pipeline, revived concerns about a global supply glut.

Brent crude slipped back below $70 a barrel after rallying more than 5% last week, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $65. According to people familiar with the talks, the Saudi-led alliance is weighing an output boost at least equal to the 137,000 barrels per day already scheduled for October. That increase is smaller than earlier monthly hikes, and several members have limited capacity to pump more.

Iraq has resumed shipments through a pipeline from its northern fields to a Turkish terminal after more than two years of suspension, North Oil Co. Director General Amer Al-Mehairi said.

Even with Monday’s pullback, crude remains on course for monthly and quarterly gains. OPEC+ has shifted toward reclaiming market share rather than strictly managing prices, while demand has been underpinned by Chinese stockpiling and geopolitical tensions, including Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets led by Helima Croft expect another incremental 137,000-barrel-a-day addition in November but note that traders are beginning to price in rising risks from conflicts involving Russia and Iran.

Looking further ahead, the International Energy Agency projects a record supply surplus by 2026 as OPEC+ restores production and non-OPEC rivals increase output. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent could fall to the mid-$50s a barrel next year despite China’s continued stockpiling.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

 

Andria Pichidi

HFMarkets

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.