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Date: 25th September 2025.

 

What Can Revive The NASDAQ?

 

US indices continue to form bearish price patterns after Monday’s bullish spike set off pending orders and profit-taking. The bullish movement from the past weeks is largely due to projections for rate cuts as well as AI developments. However, the NASDAQ is up almost 14% in 2025 and trading close to all-time highs. For this reason, profit-taking is likely to occur.

 

What Can Prompt The Continuation Of the Upward Trend?

While the NASDAQ remains at all-time highs, investors will only be comfortable purchasing with confirmation of new, concrete price drivers. The main downside risk to the stock market is the lack of interest rate cuts from the Fed, the weakening employment sector and geopolitical tensions.

 

Therefore, in order for demand to regain momentum and continue to push to all-time highs, investors would like to see these 3 factors not materialise. The first requirement that investors would like to see is interest rate cuts for October and December.

 

According to Wall Street Strategist, the NASDAQ and the general stock market are not likely to continue their current trend if we do not see a minimum of 2 rate adjustments. Currently, there is a 91% chance of a 0.25% cut in October and a 74% chance for December. If economic data, such as higher inflation or a higher PCE Price Index, lowers the possibility of rate cuts, the NASDAQ is likely to retrace lower.

 

Upcoming US News

For this reason, the upcoming US Gross Domestic Product, Unemployment Claims and Durable Goods Orders are likely to be key. Ideally, investors would like to see the GDP figure read as expected, slightly higher Durable Goods and weaker Unemployment Claims. This would prompt investors to continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates, but the economy is not at significant risk of a recession.

 

The week’s main announcement will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the PCE Price Index to remain at 2.9%, but traders looking to speculate upward price movement would prefer the figure to read lower. If the PCE Price Index falls to 2.8% the NASDAQ is likely to see bullish price movement return. However, if the PCE Price Index rises to 3.00%, the decline is potentially likely to continue.

 

The Federal Reserve

In terms of commentary from the Federal Open Market Committee, most members are providing a slightly dovish tone. The latest being San Francisco’s Mary Daly, who told journalists on Wednesday, 24th, that rate cuts are likely. However, the Chairman is less convinced.

 

The Chairman (Jerome Powell) stressed a cautious approach to monetary policy, noting the need to weigh risks from both a cooling labour market and rising inflation. He said the current 4.0–4.25% rate is high enough to contain price pressures while leaving room for quick adjustments.

 

Earnings Reports and Fundamental Indications

Lastly, October will see the start of the 3rd quarter’s quarterly earnings reports. The first earnings report which will directly influence the NASDAQ is Netflix, which is due to release its report on October 21st. Tesla will release its report the day after. Tesla is currently the 7th most influential company on the NASDAQ, while Netflix is the 9th.

 

The results of the quarterly reports from the technology sector will be key for the NASDAQ, but it is not likely to start influencing investors until October 6th.

 

 

 

NASDAQ (USA100) 1-Hour Chart

 

 

In terms of Indications from Fundamental factors, the signals remain neutral with a slight bias towards a bullish trend. The VIX is trading lower this morning, but is still higher every week. The lower VIX is positive for the day, but only if the VIX continues to decline.

 

Lastly, the Put to Call Order Ratio is slightly higher and moved away from its recent low. This is positive as the extremely low Ratio tends to indicate an overbought price for the NASDAQ. The High Low Index for the NASDAQ has also slightly retraced, but remains high, which also provides a bullish bias for the long-term.

 

Key Takeaways:

• The NASDAQ’s rally is driven by AI optimism and expected Fed rate cuts. However, profit-taking pressures have driven the price lower.
• Sustained upward momentum depends on at least two Fed rate cuts, with markets pricing in October and December moves.
• Upcoming US economic data, especially the Core PCE Price Index, will be critical for confirming future market direction. If the PCE falls to 2.8% the NASDAQ may rebound, but a rise to 3.0% could extend declines.
• Tech earnings season, starting with Netflix and Tesla, will play a key role in shaping NASDAQ sentiment in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

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Michalis Efthymiou

HFMarkets

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