official Crypto Analysis by Solidecn.com

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ADAUSD, the downward trend continues

This week, the ADAUSD pair declined as part of the general market trend and dropped to the 0.913 area. The cryptocurrency sector remains under pressure in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve's sharp tightening of monetary policy amid strong inflation. According to the latest March data, this figure increased to 8.5%, which increases the likelihood of a rate hike at the next meeting of the US regulator immediately by 0.50%.

Yesterday, the asset managed to win back part of the losses after the comments of the founder of Cardano, Charles Hoskinson. Speaking on his YouTube channel, he announced the imminent Vasil hardfock, which should take place in June and lead to a significant increase in network performance due to the launch of the data pipeline function. The solution will optimize the network for the needs of the growing volume of applications in the DeFi market.

Technically, the crypto asset price continues to trade within a long-term downtrend. The key for the "bears" is 0.9277 (Murrey [3/8]), fixing below which will allow quotes to rush to 0.8300 (Murrey [1/8]), 0.7812 (Murrey [0/8]). The continuation of the downtrend is signaled by the downward reversal of Bollinger bands and the transition of the MACD histogram into the negative zone. The exit of Stochastic from the oversold zone may mean a correction to the area of 1.1000 (the middle line of Bollinger bands), but this is unlikely to lead to a reversal of the downtrend.

Resistance levels: 0.9765, 1.1 | Support levels: 0.9277, 0.83, 0.7812

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This week, the BTCUSD pair is declining within the framework of a four-week downtrend. The quotes of "digital gold" have dropped to the area of 39000 and are likely to continue negative dynamics in the near future.  Pressure on the asset is exerted by two main factors: the expectation of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Fed and the traditional profit-taking by investors during the holidays.

Experts believe that the officials of the American regulator will continue to sharply increase the interest rate (by 0.50% or more) in order to prevent the growth of inflation. These measures will undoubtedly contribute to strengthening the position of the USD, but will put pressure on alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, which may persist until the situation in the US economy stabilizes.

It should also be noted that over the weekend, short-term support for prices was provided by the nomination by US President Joe Biden of Michael Barr for the post of chief responsible for large banks at the US Fed. Since 2015, Barr has worked as a consultant for Ripple Labs, so he is well acquainted with the crypto industry. The appearance of another supporter of cryptocurrencies among the officials of the American regulator may contribute to the adoption of digital assets by American government structures. However, long-term pressure factors are currently seen as strong enough to ensure further price declines. 

Technically, the price continues to be within a wide ascending channel and is now tending to its lower limit. The nearest reduction targets may be 37500 (Murray [4/8]) and 35300 (Fibo retracement of 0.0%). The key for the "bulls" is 42200 (Fibo retracement of 23.6%), the breakout of which will allow the instrument to strengthen up to the levels of 43750 (Murray [6/8]), 46300 (Fibo retracement of 38.2%). Technical indicators signal the continuation of the downward trend: the Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic are reversing downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 42200, 43750, 46300 | Support levels: 37500, 35300

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Last week, the ETH/USD pair entered the main sideways range of 3125–2950 (Murray [4/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%), where it is currently trading. The breakdown of its lower border will give the prospect of further decline to the levels of 2656.25 (Murray [1/8]) and 2500 (Murray [0/8]). The key “bullish” zone is 3220–3281.25 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement 38.2%), consolidation of the price above which will allow the cryptocurrency to continue its upward dynamics up to the level of 3590 (Fibonacci retracement 50.0%, Murray [7/ 8]), however, a resumption of decline remains most likely soon.

Technical indicators confirm the continuation of the downward trend: Bollinger bands are turning downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone, and the Stochastic reverses upwards, which may mean the development of an upward correction, but its potential is seen as limited.

Resistance levels: 3220, 3281.25, 3437.5, 3590 | Support levels: 2950, 2656.25, 2500

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The ADAUSD pair continues to move within the long-term downtrend.

Last week, the price corrected down and entered the main range of 0.9765–0.9277 (Murrey [4/8]–[3/8]), and consolidation below its lower border will give the prospect of further downward dynamics of quotations to 0.8300 (Murrey [1/8 ]), 0.7800 (Murrey [0/8]). The key "bullish" level is 1.0253 (Murrey [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands). If it breaks up, the token may rise to 1.1230 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1718 (Murrey [8/8]).

In general, the downward trend in the ADAUSD pair continues, which confirms the downward reversal of Bollinger bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone. At the same time, the upward reversal of Stochastic does not rule out an upward correction, but its potential looks limited.

Resistance levels: 1.0253, 1.1230, 1.1718 | Support levels: 0.9277, 0.8300, 0.7812

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This week, the cryptocurrency market made a moderate attempt to grow, but it was not crowned with significant success. BTC is currently trading around 40600.00 (+0.8%), ETH is at 3000.00 (-1.5%), USDT is around 1.0002 (+0.01%), BNB is moving around 410.00 (+0.8%), while USDC is in the 0.9998 area (+0.01%). By the end of the week, the total market capitalization decreased to 1.885T dollars, and the share of BTC was 41.06%.

The cryptocurrency sector remains under pressure due to the expected tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. A sharp reduction in the regulator's balance sheet and an increase in rates should support the position of the US currency against alternative assets, including digital ones. This prospect has already led to institutional investors' partial withdrawal of capital from crypto assets. According to CoinShares, an active withdrawal of funds has been going on for the second week, and since the beginning of this month, capital outflow from BTC has amounted to $196M. A similar picture is observed in other leading cryptocurrencies – ETH, ADA, and SOL. The withdrawal of funds by major players will likely continue soon, which will put pressure on the entire sector. Despite long-term factors, leading digital assets have stabilized this week, helped by the nomination of Michael Barr, who previously served on the advisory board of Ripple Labs Inc., to the post of chief officer for large banks at the US Federal Reserve. The official was a member of it from 2015 to 2017 and dealt with the issues of reducing the cost of money transfers for citizens of developing countries. Barr's confirmation is unlikely to help Ripple in its lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but it could speed up the adoption of cryptocurrencies by the US government.

As for XRP, the token became an underdog among the sector leaders during the week, as it came under pressure from court news. The court refused to grant Ripple's motions to exclude from the case the report of Dr. Albert Metz, proving that Ripple Lab Inc. could influence the price of XRP tokens through news and public announcements. This decision significantly weakens the company's position in the dispute with the regulator. Among other cryptocurrency news, it is worth noting a serious increase in the number of validators in the Ethereum Beacon Chain test network. Since the beginning of March, their number has increased by 50K and now stands at about 350K. At the same time, 11.6M ETH has already been blocked in the network itself. The dynamics are explained by the expectation of the imminent final transition of Ethereum from the Proof-of-Work (PoW) algorithm to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) algorithm. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has begun testing a platform for trading NFT tokens on the Ethereum blockchain. Soon, it is planned to add support for NFT on other blockchains. Clients will be able to trade and store NFTs and pay for them with a credit card. The management of the FTX cryptocurrency trading platform and The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. held talks on close cooperation. Goldman Sachs could provide financial support to FTX if the latter goes public and provide traditional banking services to the exchange's clients. Experts note that in this way The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is trying to strengthen its position in the cryptocurrency market.

Next week, quotes of most digital assets may continue to decline or consolidate.

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Last week, the BTCUSD pair had an ambiguous trend: the quotes rose to the 42950 area but then lost all the gains and fell to 38500, where they are now being traded.

The cryptocurrency sector is under pressure from a likely sharp change in monetary policy parameters by the US Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May. Last Thursday, the head of the US regulator, Jerome Powell, announced the need to increase the interest rate by 50 basis points to slow down the growth of record inflation. The “hawkish” policy of the authorities will strengthen the dollar's position relative to other assets, including cryptocurrencies. Against this background, there is an outflow of funds from major players in the market. ETH, ADA, and SOL suffered the most, but BTC is the leader in capital loss. According to the analytical company CoinShares, the active withdrawal of funds from the first cryptocurrency has been going on for the second week, and since the beginning of this month, “digital gold” has lost 196M dollars of investor funds.

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Since the beginning of this month, the ETHUSD pair has maintained a downward trend: earlier, the price dropped to the area of 2800, but then regained lost positions, returning to the 3000 mark.

The trading instrument is influenced by two main opposite factors. The expectation of a sharp increase in interest rates from the US Fed at a meeting in early May exerts pressure on the positions of ETH, as well as on the rest of the cryptocurrency sector. The consequence of this may be the strengthening of the US currency, but already there is an outflow of capital from the largest digital assets (BTC, ETH, ADA, SOL and others). So, over the past three weeks, ETH has lost about 59.3M dollars, or about a third of the total amount of funds withdrawn from the sector during this period.

On the other hand, the rapid transition of the Ethereum network from the Proof-of-Work (PoW) algorithm to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) prevents the decline in quotations. Despite the fact that the merger of the Ethereum and Ethereum 2.0 networks was postponed for several months (previously it was assumed that it would happen in June), investors remain optimistic, believing that the new network will significantly speed up transaction processing and ETH will be able to catch up with digital gold in capitalization.

Currently, the key zone for the "bulls" is 3065-3125 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Murray [4/8]), with the breakout of which upward dynamics will continue to 3281.25 (Fibo retracement of 38.2%, Murray [5/8]), 3437.5 (Murray [6/8]). Consolidation of the price below the level of 2925 (Fibo retracement of 23.6%) will give the prospect of a decline to the levels of 2812.50 (Murray [2/8]), 2656.25 (Murray [1/8]), 2500 (Murray [0/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, but the Stochastic has reversed upwards.

Resistance levels: 3125, 3281.25, 3437.5 |Support levels: 2925, 2812.5 2656.25, 2500

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XRPUSD continues to trade within a wide descending channel. At the end of March, quotes unsuccessfully tried to get out of it through the upper border and since then have continued a steady downward movement.

This week, the price of the token has tested the level of 0.6348 (Murray [1/8]), consolidating below which will give the prospect of further price decline to the levels of 0.5859 (Murray [0/8], Fibonacci retracement 0.0%) and 0.5371 (Murray [-1/8]). The key for the "bulls" seems to be the level of 0.6836 (Murray [2/8]), and if it is broken upwards, it will be possible to resume growth with a new attempt to test the upper border of the descending channel. The targets of the move will be 0.7324 (Murray [2/8], center line of Bollinger Bands) and 0.7812 (Murray [4/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%).

Bollinger Bands downward reversal and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone signal a continuation of the downtrend; however, Stochastic is reversing upwards from the oversold zone, which does not exclude corrective growth.

Resistance levels: 0.6836, 0.7324, 0.7812 | Support levels: 0.6348, 0.5859, 0.5371

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Last week, BTCUSD was trading in the range of 40625 - 37500 (Murray [2/8]-[0/8]) under pressure from the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, which will announce a reduction in the balance of the regulator and an increase in the interest rate to 0.50%, which should strengthen the position of the US currency. The prospects for the growth of the US dollar against alternative assets are forcing investors to abandon cryptocurrencies, which confirms the outflow of capital from BTC, ETH, and other market leaders.

Meanwhile, the publication of weak data on the US Gross Domestic Product in the current quarter (a decrease of 1.4% was recorded) led to a short-term upward correction in BTCUSD, as it created the possibility of a slowdown in rate growth to 25 percentage points. It is worth noting that the market's enthusiasm was quickly exhausted, since most experts agreed that the current contraction of the US economy is not a sign of an impending recession, but is the result of temporary factors, so the country's financial authorities will probably not back down from their intention to tighten the monetary policy parameters more aggressively.

The instrument has now resumed its decline approaching 37500 (Murray [0/8]), which has been repeatedly tested earlier. Consolidation of the price below it will give the prospect of further downward movement to the level of 35300 (Murray [3/8], the lower limit of the ascending channel). The key point for the "bulls" seems to be at 39900.00 (the center line of Bollinger Bands), if it is broken out, BTCUSD will strengthen to the area of 42187.5 (Murray [3/8], Fibonacci retracement of 23.6%) and 437500 (Murray [4/8]).

Technical indicators indicate the continued downtrend: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are reversing downwards, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 39900, 42187.5, 43750 | Support levels: 37500, 35300

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The XRPUSD pair is trading within a wide descending channel. At the beginning of last month, the instrument reversed from its upper limit and declined to the area of 0.6000, where it is at the moment.

The market is waiting for the results of today's meeting of the US Fed, at which the interest rate may be raised from 0.50% to 1.00%, and a decision has been made to reduce the regulator's balance sheet. Any hint of a slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening due to the threat of a possible recession may be perceived positively by investors and push the quotes of the digital asset up. In these circumstances, the news concerning the trial of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple recedes into the background, however, it is worth noting the recent comments of the head of the company Brad Garlinghouse, who in an interview with Fox Business channel expressed the hope that the court will make a positive decision on the case by the end of this year. Nevertheless, most experts are inclined to believe that this will happen no earlier than the beginning of 2023, since the regulator is delaying the process in every possible way.

We also note the publication of the Ripple report for Q1 2022, according to which the growth in popularity of the On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service based on XRP led to an increase in the volume of transactions to 15B dollars. Given the likely tightening of US monetary policy, these data are unlikely to be able to provide significant support for XRP.

Technically, the price is close to the key level for the "bears" 0.5859 (Murray [0/8]), which acts as a fairly strong support, since it has been repeatedly but unsuccessfully tested by bidders in January. If the price consolidates below it, the decline will continue to the levels of 0.5371 (Murray [-1/8]) and 0.4883 (Murray [-2/8]), otherwise the quotes will be able to resume the upward dynamics and return to the levels of 0.6836 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), 0.7324 (Murray [3/8], the upper boundary of the descending channel).

The downward trend persists, which is signaled by a downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and an increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone, but the Stochastic is directed upwards, which does not exclude a corrective growth. 

Resistance levels: 0.6348, 0.6836, 0.732 | Support levels: 0.5859, 0.5371, 0.4883

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The BTCUSD pair continues to trade within a downtrend, under pressure from the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy.

Last week, the price of "digital gold" attempted to rise to 40000 after the head of the US regulator, Jerome Powell, denied the possibility of accelerating the pace of raising interest rates to 75 basis percentage points, which caused investors to hope for a reduction in the risks of a recession in the national economy and returned interest in risky assets in the short term. However, the decline continued, and by now, the quotes have reached their lows of this January, around 33030.

The fall in the stock market, with which digital assets are actively correlated, also harms the cryptocurrency sector. Several experts believe that investors still perceive BTC and altcoins as risky assets that should be disposed of during instability.

Currently, the price of the BTCUSD pair has fallen below 34375 (Murrey [3/8]) and may continue to decline towards 31250 (Murrey [2/8]). The key "bullish" level is 38350 (the middle line of Bollinger bands), a breakdown of which may lead to the resumption of growth of the trading instrument to 40625 (Murrey [5/8]), 43750 (Murrey [6/8]), however, such an option price movement seems less likely, as technical indicators reflect the continuation of the downward trend: the Bollinger and Stochastic bands are directed downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 37500, 38350, 40625, 43750 | Support levels: 31250, 28125

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The ETHUSD pair has been declining since the beginning of last month, and this week has reached 2200 near the January lows.

Currently, the quotes of the digital asset are testing the support zone 2343.75–2300 (Murrey [–1/8], the lower limit of the long-term rising channel), below which they have repeatedly tried to break through earlier. If successful, the decline could continue to 1875 (Murrey [3/8] for W1). Downward reversal of Bollinger Bands and an increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone signal a continuation of the downtrend. However, Stochastic reversal upwards in the oversold zone does not exclude corrective growth to 2656.25 (Murrey [1/8]) and 2812.5 (Murrey [2/8], average Bollinger bands line) but is unlikely to lead to a reversal of the current trend.

Resistance levels: 2500, 2656.25, 2812.5 | Support levels: 2343.75, 2187.5, 1875

 

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The XRPUSD pair is falling along with the rest of the cryptocurrency market within a wide downward channel, reaching its lowest level since last March, around 0.4682 yesterday.

The pressure on the sector is still associated with the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, which strengthens the position of the US currency compared to alternative assets. Also, experts note that due to the arrival of many institutional investors in digital assets, their correlation with the stock market has increased, and the fall of the latter over the past month and a half has harmed cryptocurrencies. As for XRP itself, the legal proceedings between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are putting additional pressure on the token. The process continues to drag out, and most experts expect it will be completed only next year, although the chances of a faster resolution of the situation remain. In this regard, the survey conducted by Finder among the leading experts in the cryptocurrency market is interesting. According to analysts, if Ripple wins in court by the end of the year, the token will be able to reach 2.55 dollars, and otherwise, it will restore part of the lost positions but will not rise above 0.68 dollars.

The price is testing 0.4883 (Murrey [5/8]). If it consolidates below it, the quotes may fall to 0.3906 (Murrey [4/8]). The key "bullish" level is 0.6130 (the middle line of Bollinger bands). Its breakout allows growth to 0.6836 (Murrey [7/8], the upper limit of the downward channel) or 0.7812 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%). The downward reversal of Bollinger bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone indicate the continuation of the downward trend, but the exit of Stochastic from the oversold zone does not exclude corrective growth.

Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6836, 0.7812 | Support levels: 0.4883, 0.3906

 

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Sell: 0.414 | TP: 0.3556 | SL: 0.4516

 

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The ETHUSD pair continues to decline within the framework of a long-term downtrend and last week fell to the lowest values since March last year around 1700.

The decline affected the entire cryptocurrency sector and was a consequence of the collapse of the UST stablecoin and the LUNA token. Currently, the quotes are trying to recoup some of the losses, but for serious corrective growth they need to break out the 2187.5 mark (Murray [3/8]). In this case, the price will be able to rise to the level of 2500 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement of 50.0%). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1875.00 (Murray [2/8]). Consolidation of the price below it will give the prospect of further decline to 1562.50 (Murray [1/8]) and 1250 (Murray [0/8]). The downtrend continues, which is confirmed by the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The Stochastic is directed upwards, which creates the probability of attempts at corrective growth, but is unlikely to lead to a reversal of the current trend.

Resistance levels: 2187.5, 2500, 2812.5 | Support levels: 1875, 1562.5, 1250

 

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XRPUSD, technical analysis

The XRPUSD pair continues to trade within a wide descending channel. Last week, against the background of the collapse of the UST stablecoin and the LUNA token, the price reached the lowest values since January 2021 in the area of 0.329.

Currently, some of the losses have been recouped, but the potential for an upward correction is seen as limited by the resistance zone 0.5155-0.4883 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Murray [5/8]). In case of its breakout, a further increase in quotations will be possible to the levels of 0.5859 (Murray [6/8]) and 0.6836 (Murray [7/8]), however, this option of price movement seems less likely, since the general downward trend persists, which is confirmed by the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The key area for the "bears" remains 0.3906-0.3670 (Murray [4/8], Fibo retracement of 0.0%). Consolidation of the price below it will give the prospect of further decline to the levels of 0.2930 (Murray [3/8]) and 0.1953 (Murray [2/8], the lower boundary of the descending channel).     

Resistance levels: 0.5155, 0.6835, 0.7812 | Support levels: 0.3670, 0.2930, 0.1953

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Last week, the price reached the year's lows around 0.3825, then recovered part of the position, but now it is falling again. The cryptocurrency sector is under pressure from two main factors: the tightening of monetary policy in the United States and the fall of the UST and LUNA currencies. Yesterday, the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, confirmed officials' determination to raise rates until inflation reaches the target of 2.0%. It means that the strengthening of the US dollar against alternative assets will continue. The collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin UST and its associated LUNA token has also eroded investor confidence in digital currencies, causing sell-offs across the sector. To remedy the situation, the developers of the Terra blockchain proposed to fork, create a new blockchain and additionally distribute 1B tokens among interested participants but experts believe that these plans are doomed to failure.

As for the ADA token itself, its position can be supported by the Vasil hard fork scheduled for June. According to Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, the fork should lead to a significant increase in network performance due to the launch of the data pipeline function. It will optimize the network for the needs of the growing volume of applications in the DeFi market.

The price is testing the level of 0.4882 (Murrey [1/8]), which breakdown allows a decline to 0.3906 (Murrey [0/8]), 0.2929 (Murrey [–1/8]). The consolidation above the middle line of Bollinger bands and 0.6835 (Murrey [3/8]) allows growth to 0.7812 (Murrey [4/8]) and 0.8789 (Murrey [5/8]). This movement variant seems less likely since the indicators point to the continuation of the downward trend: the Bollinger bands and Stochastic are directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6835, 0.7812, 0.8789 | Support levels: 0.4882, 0.3906, 0.2929.

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The XRPUSD pair is moving within a wide downward channel, but it has been consolidating around 0.41 in relative equilibrium for the second week.

At the moment, the asset's downtrend is maintained, signaled by a downward reversal of the Bollinger and Stochastic bands. To resume a serious decline, the price will have to break below the support zone of 0.4100–0.3650, and in this case, the trading instrument will be able to continue moving towards 0.2930 (Murrey [3/8]) and 0.1953 (Murrey [2/8], the lower limit of the downwards channel). The key "bullish" level is 0.4883 (Murrey [5/8]), above the middle line of Bollinger bands, the breakdown of which will give the prospect of resuming the upward dynamics of the token quotes to the area of 0.6000 (Murrey [6/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), 0.6836 (Murrey [7/8]) but so far this variant of further movement seems less likely.

Resistance levels: 0.4883, 0.6000, 0.6836 | Support levels: 0.3650, 0.2930, 0.1953