official Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN ✔️]

WTI Futures Drop Below $69.5, Market Weighs Supply and Risk

Solid ECN – On Wednesday, WTI crude futures experienced a notable decline, dropping over 1.5% to reach a three-week low, falling below $69.5 per barrel. This downturn came on the heels of a 1.8% loss in the previous session, influenced by a broad selloff in risk assets. This selloff occurred despite rising tensions in the Middle East, which might typically bolster oil prices. As the new year began, the market's mood was cautious, with stocks and other risky assets facing downward pressure. This sentiment was further influenced by a rebound in the dollar and Treasury yields, as investors recalibrated their expectations for significant rate cuts from major central banks.

Contributing to the oil price drop is the increase in global supplies, especially from non-OPEC countries, combined with a shaky demand forecast. Additionally, traders are keeping a watchful eye on geopolitical events, particularly Iran's recent deployment of a warship in the Red Sea, seen as a challenge to US forces in this crucial trade corridor. Over the weekend, there was a confrontation when US Navy helicopters intercepted three Houthi boats that were attempting to hijack a container ship in the Red Sea, leading to casualties.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

The Balance of Gold in a Shifting Economic Landscape

Solid ECN – On Wednesday, gold prices stabilized above $2,060 an ounce, recovering from the previous session's fluctuating trends. This stability comes as investors eagerly await insights from the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes, which are expected to shed light on future monetary policies. Despite reaching intraday highs, gold experienced a slight decline of 0.2% on Tuesday. This was attributed to a resurgence in the dollar's value and an increase in Treasury yields, leading investors to reconsider their expectations for interest rate reductions by major central banks within the year.

Currently, market predictions indicate about a 70% likelihood of the US central bank implementing a quarter-point rate cut in March, a decrease from the almost 90% probability previously anticipated. In addition, gold's value has found some support due to a combination of factors, including the sell-off in riskier assets and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

NZX 50’s Comeback: A Detailed Analysis

Solid ECN – On Thursday, the NZX 50 index made a comeback. It rose by 28.98 points or 0.25%, ending at 11,759.11. This was after a slow start with minor losses. The turnaround happened when a private report showed that service activities in China, a major trade partner, reached a five-month high in December.

Market players were optimistic. They hoped that Chinese authorities would shift from yuan stabilization to monetary easing. This came after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) significantly weakened the currency fixing, the most in over six months. US futures also saw a slight increase, boosting market sentiment. Investors were still processing the latest Federal Reserve minutes, which hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024.

In company news, PaySauce, a fintech firm, reported a 23% annual increase in its recurring revenue for the fiscal quarter ending on December 31st. The day’s top performers included industrial services, consumer durables, and utilities sectors. In terms of individual stocks, Scales Corp. led the pack with a 3.0% jump. It was followed by Meridian Energy Ltd. (2.8%), Comvita NPV (2.6%), and Hallenstein Glassons Holdings (1.3%).

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Canadian Dollar Dips Beyond 1.33 USD

The value of the Canadian dollar has recently decreased, now exceeding 1.33 against the US dollar. This decline follows a notable peak at 1.32 on December 26th, which was the highest in five months. Several factors contribute to this shift: a strengthening US dollar, underwhelming economic data within Canada, and a decrease in foreign currency coming into the country. 

Particularly impactful was the manufacturing PMI in Canada, which saw its most significant reduction since the 2020 pandemic-induced downturn. This situation constrains the Central Bank of Canada's ability to implement strict policies to combat inflation. Additionally, a global reduction in oil demand is affecting the foreign exchange inflows, further weakening the Canadian dollar. Investors are now keenly anticipating the upcoming labor market data, set to be released on Friday, hoping it will shed light on the potential direction of future monetary policy.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

NZX 50's Slight Dip Amid Global Uncertainty

Solid ECN – Heading into 2024, New Zealand's NZX 50 saw a slight decline, ending at 11,748.49 on the last day of the week. This minor fall of 0.1% encapsulated the market's tepid response to international economic signals. Notably, Wall Street's sluggish beginning to the new year played a role in this downturn.

Furthermore, speculation is rife regarding potential shifts in US Federal Reserve interest rates, adding to the air of uncertainty. This, coupled with the anticipation of December's job report, has prompted a cautious approach from investors.

In New Zealand, there's a mixed sentiment among economists about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) future moves. While some predict a possible change in the cash rate by August, confidence in this forecast remains moderate. Shifting focus to China, New Zealand's key trading ally, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the People's Bank of China might lower the reserve requirement ratio twice in 2024, aiming to bolster the nation's economic rebound.

Specific sectors like consumer durables, energy minerals, and technology services contributed to the NZX 50's decline. Leading the downward trend were companies such as Infratil Ltd., Gentrack Group Ltd., Briscoe Group, and Property for Industry, all experiencing notable drops in their stock values.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Crude Futures Steady Amidst Market Flux

On Friday, WTI crude futures maintained a steady position above $72 per barrel. This stability reflects a complex market situation where weakening demand in the United States contrasts with the impact of supply interruptions in Libya. Just the day before, oil prices experienced a notable drop of 2.3%, but later recovered slightly. This fluctuation was primarily influenced by recent US data revealing a surprising surge in gasoline reserves. Last week, gasoline stocks rose sharply by 10.9 million barrels, marking the most significant increase in over 30 years. Additionally, there was an unexpected rise in distillate inventories, which grew by 10.1 million barrels, far surpassing the anticipated increase of 400,000 barrels. Contrasting these increases, crude oil reserves saw a reduction of 5.5 million barrels.

At the same time, market attention remains focused on Libya, where ongoing protests have disrupted oil production at the Sharara and El-Feel fields. These fields are significant, contributing around 365,000 barrels of oil per day. In a separate development, Iran is grappling with a tragic event. Two explosions occurred during a ceremony honoring the late military leader Qassem Soleimani, resulting in almost 100 deaths and many injuries.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Canadian Dollar Falls Beyond 1.33 USD Mark

Solid ECN – The value of the Canadian dollar has recently dropped, surpassing 1.33 against the US dollar. This decline comes after it had reached a five-month peak at 1.32 on December 26th. Several factors contribute to this shift, including a strengthening US dollar, lackluster economic reports within Canada, and a decrease in foreign currency coming into the country. A notable point of concern is Canada's manufacturing sector, which has experienced its most significant downturn since the 2020 pandemic crash. 

This downturn poses challenges for the central bank's efforts to control inflation through tighter policies. Additionally, the Canadian dollar's strength is further weakened by a global reduction in oil demand, which traditionally supports the currency through foreign exchange. Investors are now focusing on the upcoming labor market report, set to be released on Friday, to gain insights into the potential directions of future monetary policy.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Swiss Franc Falls from 12-Year High

Solid ECN – The Swiss franc dropped to 0.85 against the US dollar, down from a 12-year peak of 0.841. The DXY's recovery influenced this change. Last year, the franc gained 8.5% versus the dollar, reflecting differing interest rate policies of the Swiss National Bank and the Federal Reserve. The Fed's latest meeting hinted at a cautious approach, further affected by US inflation slowing down. 

Despite this, the Swiss National Bank sees reasons for higher rates due to potential inflation increases. Currently, inflation in Switzerland is at 1.4%, but predictions show it might reach the 2% goal in mid-2024. This has led investors to believe that the Swiss National Bank will cut rates later than the Fed. Additionally, the franc reached a new high against the Euro, reflecting ongoing high rate expectations from the Swiss National Bank.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

USDCHF Navigates Between Bullish Channel

Solid ECN – The bull's effort to flip the price above the Ichimoku cloud continues. However, the ADX indicator hovers below the 20 level, which can be interpreted as a weak market trend. The USDCHF price should stabilize itself above the %38.2 Fibonacci level for the uptick bias to continue. If this happens, the price would rise to test the %50 level of the Fibonacci resistance as its initial target. 

Conversely, the bullish scenario should be invalid if the USDCHF price exceeds the bullish channel. In this case, the downfall would extend to December 2023's low.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Euro Stabilizes Amid Eurozone Inflation and Strong US Job Market

Solid ECN - The euro maintained a steady value near $1.09. This happened as market players absorbed new information. The Eurozone showed an increase in its inflation rate. At the same time, the US job market was doing well. These developments reduced the need for the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

In December, the Euro Area saw its inflation rate go up to 2.9%. This was just below the expected 3%. The main reason for this increase was the cost of energy. The core inflation rate, which excludes energy, also slowed down. It reached 3.4%, the lowest since March 2022.

In the US, the job scene was positive. There were 216,000 new jobs added last month. This was more than the expected 170,000. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 3.7%. However, there was a slight dip in the activity rate. It fell to 62.5%, the lowest since February.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Pound Steadiness, Consumer Borrowing Spike, and House Price Rise

Solid ECN - The UK's pound currency remained stable at $1.27. This stability came as market players analyzed new economic figures and their effect on global financial policies. A recent report from the US showed an unexpected jump in job creation, suggesting the Federal Reserve might not lower interest rates soon, possibly not even in March. Meanwhile, UK consumer borrowing saw a significant boost, with an increase of £2.0 billion - the most since March 2017 and higher than the £1.4 billion predicted. 

Additionally, the number of loans for buying homes in the UK was higher than expected, reaching 50.1K. In other news, Britain's service sector grew stronger in December than initially thought, and the mood among businesses was the most optimistic in seven months. Finally, UK house prices increased by 1.7% compared to last year, the first rise in nine months.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Libya's Oil Halt Boosts WTI Above $72

Solid ECN – WTI crude futures rose above $72.5 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and halted oil production in Libya continued to support oil prices. Libya's Sharara oilfield has stopped oil production since last week due to political protests, removing approximately 300,000 barrels per day from the market. 

A prolonged war in Gaza and Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea also stoked fears of a broader conflict in the region that could disrupt supply further. Moreover, industry data showed that US crude inventories declined by 5.215 million barrels last week, way above market expectations for a 1.2 million barrel drop. Meanwhile, US gasoline stockpiles rose by 4.9 million barrels, while distillate inventories gained 6.9 million. Investors now look ahead to US EIA data later on Wednesday and the International Energy Agency's monthly market report next week.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Cooling Inflation

Solid ECN – The Australian dollar climbed to nearly $0.67, recovering from its four-week low. This rise occurred despite new data indicating a slowdown in inflation. In November, Australia's CPI grew by 4.3% compared to last year, less than October's 4.9% increase and the smallest since January 2022. The figure was also lower than the anticipated 4.4%. 

Given the services sector's robustness, this suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia might not raise interest rates. The market doesn't expect the central bank to increase rates beyond the existing 4.35%. Also, the likelihood of a rate cut in May has decreased to about 36%.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

New Zealand Dollar Balances as Rate Cut Expectations Grow

Solid ECN – The New Zealand dollar has stabilized at $0.624 after recent ups and downs. This comes as the US dollar weakens, with many expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several times this year. US consumer inflation expectations for the short term hit a near three-year low in December, hinting at a softer approach to monetary policy. 

In New Zealand, markets anticipate four rate cuts from their central bank this year, possibly starting in May. The central bank's head noted the unexpected slowdown in growth, increasing chances of an earlier rate cut. In November, New Zealand's cash rate remained at 5.5%, narrowly avoiding a hike.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

GBPUSD Tests Ichimoku Cloud, Eyes Rise

Solid ECN – The GBPUSD currency pair has tested the Ichimoku cloud in today’s trading session. The pair is currency trading at 1.2721 while the awesome oscillator bars turned green. The RSI indicator stayed above 50, another signal for the bullish trend’s resumption. 

If the bulls can maintain the price above the cloud, the price will likely rise. But the first hurdle is 1.2776. Should this level be breached, the following target can be 1.2826. 

The bullish scenario is invalid if the bears close below the cloud. In this case, the lower band of the bullish flag would be the next resistance. 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

USDJPY Above Ichimoku Cloud, Bulls Eye Gain

The USDJPY currency pair trades above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a bullish trend. Various technical indicators further support this positive outlook. The ADX line, an indicator of trend strength, is above 40, indicating a solid upward trend. The awesome oscillator bars are green, and the RSI indicator is positioned above its median line, aligning with the bullish sentiment.

Bullish traders in the USDJPY market are likely setting their sights on the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level—the lower band of the bullish flag and the Ichimoku cloud support this bullish scenario. The bullish trend remains valid and intact as long as the currency pair maintains its position above the cloud.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Gold: Bearish Channel and Fibonacci

The XAUUSD currently ranges between 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. Interestingly, the Average Directional Index (ADX) lines hover below the 20 level, indicating market uncertainty. Despite this, gold continues to trade within the bearish channel. As a result, we can consider the current market trend as bearish.

Given this outlook, we might expect the bears to exert more pressure. This could lead to a continued decline towards the lower band of the bearish flag. However, this scenario would be invalidated if the gold price closes above the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

EURUSD Bullish Trend Analysis and Fibonacci Resistance Levels

Solid ECN – The EURUSD currency pair has crossed above the bearish flag and is now testing the Ichimoku cloud. The ADX green line has crossed above the 20 level, signaling the emergence of a bullish trend. If the EURUSD remains above the blue trendline, the next target could be the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance.

The 50% Fibonacci level supports the bullish scenario. The uptrend analysis should be invalidated if the price declines below this resistance level. 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

USDCNH Tests Support; Bulls vs. Bears in Market Tug

Solid ECN – The USDCNH pair is testing the 7.1631 support level on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator is gradually stepping outside the oversold area, signaling a potential change in momentum. If the bulls maintain the price above this support, we can reasonably expect the USDCNH price to experience a new bullish wave.

Consequently, the market might surge to the 7.1898 area in such a scenario.

On the flip side, should the bears successfully breach the support, the decline would likely extend to the 38.2% Fibonacci support level.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Gold Dips as Dollar Rises on US Data

Solid ECN – Gold's price fell to under $2,030 per ounce on Thursday. This drop happened as the US dollar got more robust. Good US economic news reduced expectations for more accessible money policies in March. Inflation rates were higher than expected. Yearly inflation increased to 3.4% in December, up from 3.1% in November. Also, fewer people filed for unemployment last week than expected. Only 202,000 filed, less than the 210,000 predicted. This shows the job market is still strong.