official Market Update by Solidecn.com

[Solid ECN ✔️]

USDCHF - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9600 – 0.9819. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9332.

 

 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

CHN Comp

• US indices finished the final trading session of February lower. S&P 500 dropped 0.30%, Dow Jones moved 0.71% and Nasdaq moved 0.10% lower. Small-cap Russell 2000 bucked the trend and finished 0.04% higher
• Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher today. Nikkei added 0.3%, Nifty 50 gained 0.6%, S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.1%
• Indices from China traded higher on the back of strong PMIs with Hang Seng trading 4% higher on the day
• DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today
• Bloomberg reports that amount of Russian diesel-type fuel stored in floating storage reached 1.9 million barrels and is the highest since October 2022 as the country struggles to find buyers for its oil derivative products after Western sanctions
• Official Chinese manufacturing PMI jumped from 50.1 to 52.6 in February (exp. 50.5) and reached the highest level since April 2012. Services gauge moved from 54.4 to 56.3 (exp. 55.0)
• Australian GDP grew by 0.5% QoQ in Q4 2022 (exp. 0.7% QoQ)
• Australian CPI inflation dropped from 8.4 to 7.4% YoY in January (exp. 8.1% YoY)
• Australian final manufacturing PMI for February came in at 50.5 and was revised higher from 50.1 signaled in flash reading
• Japanese final manufacturing PMI for February came in at 47.7 and was revised slightly higher from 47.4 in flash reading
• API report pointed to a 6.2 million barrel build in US oil inventories (exp. +0.8 mb)
• Cryptocurrencies trade higher amid overall improvement in risk moods. Bitcoin gains 2.5%, Ethereum jumps 2.6% and Dogecoin trades 1.7% higher
• Oil is trading 1% higher while US natural gas prices pull back 1%
• Precious metals trade higher as USD underperforms - gold adds 0.5% while silver and platinum trade 1.3% higher
• AUD and NZD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and USD lag the most

 

Chinese CHNComp is rallying today following the release of strong official PMIs for February. Index bounced off the support zone ranging between 6,600 pts and 200-session moving average is now trading over 4% higher on the day.

 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

AUDJPY

AUDJPY has been trading sideways in recent days but the pair may be heading for a breakout  from this short-term lull today. Release of much better than expected official PMIs from China supported market sentiment during the Asian trading session and is also providing support for indices from the Old Continent at the beginning of the European cash session today. However, AUDJPY has already given back some gains following the initial rally as investors are having second thoughts.

There are 2 factors at play for AUDJPY today. The first one is the aforementioned release of official Chinese PMIs. The second one, is a release of not so encouraging data from the Australian economy. The Australian GDP report for Q4 2022 showed growth of 0.5% QoQ, which was weaker than the 0.7% QoQ median estimate from economists. Moreover, Australian CPI data for January showed a quite significant slowdown from 8.4 to 7.4% YoY while markets expected a deceleration to 8.1% YoY. Weaker than expected GDP growth and bigger than expected slowdown in CPI inflation gives Reserve Bank of Australia some room to justify slowing or pausing the rate hike cycle.

Taking a look at AUDJPY chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in a short-term upward channel since mid-December 2022. The pair made two attempts at breaking above the 93.00 resistance zone recently but have later pulled back following a failure. After around a week of trading sideways in the 91.70 area, we are seeing some action from AUDJPY bulls today. However, it should be noted that both - upper and lower - wicks of recent daily candlesticks have been quite large. This means that it cannot be ruled out that we will see reversal of today's gains later into the day and painting of another doji-like candlestick, signaling persisting indecisiveness.
 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

NZDUSD

The NZDUSD pair rallied upwards to breach the bearish channel’s resistance and head towards testing the most important resistance at 0.6290, and we prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to this level, as continuing the rise and breaching it will push the price to achieve additional gains that start by visiting 0.6385 areas, while consolidating below it will press on the price to resume the correctional bearish wave that its targets begin by testing 0.6140.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6180 support and 0.6280 resistance.
 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

EURGBP

Euro kicked off March on a strong note as fresh preliminary inflation data from France and Spain showed price pressures accelerated last month. Also inflation in North-Rhine Westphalia, the most densely populated part of Germany, also increased. Markets price in ECB to lift rates by another 50bps in March, while the peak rate for the deposit facility is projected to reach 4% in February of 2024, above the 3.9% seen in late February. 

On the other hand, the British pound is one of the worst performing G10 currencies today as fresh comments from BoE Governor Bailey overshadowed optimism over Britain's agreement with the EU on post-Brexit trade regarding Northern Ireland. Bailey said further rate hikes may be appropriate but nothing is decided as inflation has been slightly weaker, and activity and wages slightly stronger. It seems that his indecisiveness was perceived well by the markets.

EUR and NZD are the best performing major currencies while GBP and USD lag the most.

EURGBP rose sharply at the beginning of today's session, however buyers struggle to reach major resistance at 0.8875, which is marked with previous price reactions and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave launched in December 2022. As long as price sits below, pullback towards  local support at 0.8815. cannot be ruled out.
 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

EURCHF

The EURCHF pair took advantage of the stability of the additional support at 0.9860 to push it above the EMA50, achieving clear gains by reaching 1.0032, these factors confirm surrendering to the domination of the bullish bias, noting that stochastic positive momentum signals will assist to resume the bullish rally, to expect targeting 1.0080 followed by pressing on the additional barrier at 1.0145 as a next target for the bullish bias.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9975 and 1.0080.
 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

EURGBP

EUR could be on the move later today when the CPI report for February from the euro area and ECB minutes are released at 10:00 am GMT and 12:30 pm GMT, respectively. CPI reading may draw more attention as it will be more timely - keep in mind that ECB minutes will be a recap of discussions from around 3 weeks ago and therefore views included may be outdated. In fact, many ECB members have struck a hawkish tone since the latest meeting with ECB President Lagarde saying this morning that a 50 bp rate hike at the March meeting is still on the table. This has provided some support for EUR this morning and put some pressure on European equities. Lagarde also said that she does not expect recession in the euro area and that inflation should start to slow from march due to base effects.

Taking a look at EURGBP chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has climbed to the 0.8900 resistance zone yesterday. An attempt to break above was made today on the back of Lagarde's comments but those gains were already erased. Nevertheless, another attempt cannot be ruled out given two potential EUR-volatility events later in the day (CPI and ECB minutes). Also the pair may see some action during speeches from ECB Schnabel (12:30 pm GMT), BoE Tenreyro (1:00 pm GMT) and BoE Pill (3:00 pm GMT).
 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

AUDUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6645 – 0.6524. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6917.

 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

NZDUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6008 – 0.5890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6388.

 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair show more bearish bias to settle below 1.0650 again, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend for the rest of the day, waiting to break 1.0625 to reinforce the expectations of continuing the bearish bias, motivated by the negative overlapping signal provided by stochastic now, reminding you that our main waited target is located at 1.0515, while achieving it requires holding below 1.0650.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0560 support and 1.0720 resistance.
 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

GBPCHF

The GBPCHF pair ended the correctional bullish rebound by providing new negative close below 1.1415 resistance, to notice crawling below the moving average 55 and consolidate near 1.1255, also, stochastic begins to provide the negative momentum to increase the efficiency of the bearish track, to keep waiting to touch the negative stations near 1.1180 followed by reaching the additional support at 1.1100.

 

 

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1310 and 1.1180.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

USDCAD

The USDCAD pair continues to decline to break 1.3600 level and settles below it, to head towards providing more negative trades on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 1.3500 level mainly.

 

 

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that the expected decline is temporary, waiting to resume the bullish wave that its targets begin by testing 1.3680 level. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.3630 will stop the suggested negative scenario for today and lead the price to recover again.

[Solid ECN ✔️]

Bitcoin

Cryptocurrencies are on watch as potentially another collapse is brewing on the markets. Concerns are mounting over the financial condition of Silvergate Bank, a bank that specializes in cryptocurrency transactions. Silvergate warned in a filing on Wednesday that recent losses that the bank has experienced may leave it with less capital than it needs. Company also said that it failed to meet the deadline to submit its annual report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Reaction was quick with hedge funds, partners and investors pulling out from the Bank, leading to a collapse in its share price. Cryptocurrency companies, like for example Coinbase, stop accepting and initiating payments to or from Silvergate. However, some companies, like for example BitStamp, warned that they cannot be held responsible for any funds deposited at Silvergate accounts, signaling to clients that they decide to use Silvergate accounts at their own risk.

Whole situation is putting pressure on cryptocurrencies with major coins dropping 3-7% today. Taking a look at the BITCOIN chart at the D1 interval, we can see that the coin is testing a major support zone today. The $22,450 area is marked with previous price reactions as well as the lower limit of a local market geometry. A break below would, at least in theory, hint at a short-term trend reversal. In such a scenario, declines could deepen with sellers targeting the next support zone in-line - $21,200 area marked with previous price reactions and 100-period Exponential Moving Average (green line). 
 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

XAUUSD - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the area of 1889.75 – 1960.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1802.05.

 

 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

USDJPY - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will grow to the area of 138.50 – 142.17. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.02.

 

 

 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

ETHEREUM

ETHEREUM price fell over 6.0% on Friday and broke below psychological support at $1600, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in June 2022. Currently buyers attempt to halt declines around local support at $1550, which is marked with previous price reactions. However, should break lower occur. sell-off may deepen towards recent lows at $1460. 

 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

EURUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.0500 – 1.0325. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0695.

 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

GBPUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.1650 – 1.1420. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2285.

 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

AUDUSD

The AUDUSD pair continues to crawl positively to trade near the key resistance 0.6780, noticing that stochastic lost its positive momentum to start providing negative signals now, waiting to motivate the price to rebound bearishly and resume the correctional bearish track, which targets 0.6665 as a next station.

The EMA50 continues to press negatively on the price to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend, being aware that breaching 0.6780 will complete forming positive pattern that has the ability to push the price to turn to rise and head to visit 0.6925 areas initially.
 

[Solid ECN ✔️]

EURJPY

The EURJPY pair failed to surpass 145.25 barrier, to force it to postpone the bullish attack and form correctional bearish rebound to touch the additional support at 144.

 

 

We expect to form mixed sideways trades between the mentioned levels, to recommend neutrality and monitoring the price behavior until surpassing one of these levels to manage to detect the next trend, noting that breaking the support will activate the correctional bearish track that might target 143.25 and 142.60 levels.