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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair shows bearish bias to approach testing the key support 0.9808, and the price needs to hold above this level to keep the bullish trend active, waiting to breach 0.9865 to confirm extending the bullish wave towards 0.9873, noting that breaking 0.9808 will press on the price to test 0.9700 level as a next negative station.
 
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The expected trading range for today is between 0.9790 support and 0.9940 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.
 
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AUDUSD - Australian labor market under pressure

Today's report on the labor market did not support the Australian currency: unemployment in the country remained at 3.5%, and its growth compared to August was less than 0.1%. The number of unemployed increased by 9.0K to 499.4K people, and their percentage among young people decreased to 7.9%, while the employment-to-population ratio corrected to 64.2% from 64.3% a month earlier. In turn, full-time employment increased by 13.3K people, and part-time employment decreased by 12.4K people, reinforcing the negative trend of previous months, as citizens strive for stable work in the face of rapid inflation and higher interest rates on loans.

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On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the local channel, holding near the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept significantly from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is deep in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.632, 0.65 | Support levels: 0.62, 0.605
 

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EURUSD Under the Negative Pressure

EURUSD pair faced clear negative pressure yesterday to break 0.979 level and close the daily candlestick below it, which pushes the price to trade with expected negativity in the upcoming sessions, especially after exiting the intraday bullish channel that appears on the chart, to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 0.9700 and extend to 0.9630 after surpassing the previous level.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, supported by moving below the EMA50, noting that breaching 0.9790 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to recover again. 

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The expected trading range for today is between 0.9660 support and 0.9830 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.

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GBPUSD - The political crisis in the UK puts pressure on the pound quotes

GBPUSD is trading with a multidirectional dynamic, testing the level of 1.1200 for a breakdown. The British currency is still under pressure from the rising US dollar, which is supported by expectations of a tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Bank of England is also set to further increase the interest rate, given the fact that inflation in the UK in September exceeded the psychological barrier of 10.0%; in addition, the regulator is considering launching a quantitative tightening program.

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At the same time, the Bank of England is forced to respond not only to economic challenges, but also to the political crisis. The day before, British Prime Minister Liz Truss announced her resignation after only 45 days in office, but the official will continue to fulfil her duties until the elections, which are to be held next week. Analysts call the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak the most likely candidate for the post of chairman of the Conservative Party and the head of government. In addition, Boris Johnson announced the decision to return to his political career. Truss resigned after being criticized for an initiative to reduce the fiscal burden and subsidize utility bills.

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Today, investors are watching the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of Retail Sales: on a monthly basis, the indicator slowed down the negative dynamics from -1.6% to -1.4%, and on an annualized basis, on the contrary, strengthened it from -5.4% to -6.9%, while Retail Sales excluding Fuel on a monthly basis corrected from -1.6% to -1.5% with a forecast of -0.3%, and from -5.0% to -6.2% on an annual basis, although analysts expected -4.1%. Weak statistics may push the pound quotes to a new decline.

Resistance levels: 1.13, 1.1494, 1.16, 1.17 | Support levels: 1.115, 1.106, 1.0922, 1.06
 

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NI 225 - foreign trade indicators impede the growth of the index

The leading Japanese stock index NI 225 continues to correct, trading near the level of 26881.0.
 
According to the latest report from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, Exports in September increased by 28.9% compared to the same period in 2021, amounting to 8.819 trillion yen, while Imports added 45.9%, reaching record 10.913 trillion yen. Thus, Japan's trade deficit has already amounted to 2.094 trillion yen, which is another record both in size and in duration, as the negative trade balance has been maintained for 14 consecutive months. The data released today showed a 0.4% increase in the National Consumer Price Index in September in monthly terms and 3.0% in annual terms. The indicator has been growing for the eighth month in a row, which is beginning to cause doubts among market participants about the continuation of the "dovish" policy and the negative interest rate retention by the Bank of Japan.
 
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On the daily chart of the asset, the price remains within the local lateral corridor, holding near the support line. Technical indicators keep a sell signal despite the local correction: the histogram of the AO oscillator remains in the sell zone, forming new ascending bars, and fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line.
 
Support levels: 26350, 25500 | Resistance levels: 27400, 28400
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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair resumes its negative trades to support the continuation of the bearish trend for the rest of the day, reminding you that our main targets begin at 1.1055 and extend to 1.0920 as next main stations, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, while the price needs to hold below 1.1290 to continue the expected decline.
 
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The expected trading range for today is between 1.1080 support and 1.1220 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.
 
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GBPUSD - Under the pressure of the domestic political crisis in the UK

This week can be seen as the official start of a new race for prime minister after incumbent and Conservative Party chief Liz Truss announced her resignation amid widespread criticism of her proposed tax reform. Currently, only one real favorite is known – the former finance minister Rishi Sunak, supported by most current officials (178 out of 357 deputies). In turn, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who announced his readiness to compete for the post on Friday, has already fallen out of the race, having failed to enlist the support of at least 100 party members and gained only 59 votes. The electoral process must be completed by October 28. Today will be presented data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, from which analysts expect a continued decline from 48.4 points to 48 points and from 50 points to 49.6 points, respectively.

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The trading instrument moves within the long-term downward channel toward the resistance line.

Resistance levels: 1.148, 1.18 | Support levels: 1.1178, 1.0925
 

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BTCUSD -Market uncertainty persists

The situation remains uncertain: on the one hand, in the long term, the position of the cryptocurrency market continues to be pressured by an increase in the interest rate in the United States, which may accelerate since inflation cannot be slowed down, and the deterioration of the global economic situation, which can reduce the activity of miners due to an increase in electricity prices. On the other hand, the potential for a serious decline in quotes seems to be limited since investors who want to abandon digital assets have already done so. A short-term positive impact on the trading instrument is the addition of support for trading cryptocurrencies in the United States by one of the largest brokers, Oanda, which has entered into a partnership with Paxos itBit, a regulated cryptocurrency platform, which should support the interest of ordinary American investors in digital assets.

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The trading instrument remains within the sideways range of 19550–19000, having unsuccessfully tested its upper limit today and started to decline. If the zone of 19000–18750 is broken down, the quotes can reach 18000 (Murrey [1/8]), 17500 (Murrey [0/8]), and if they consolidate above 19550, the growth will be able to resume to 20000 (Murrey [4/8]) and 20625 (Murrey [3/8]).

Resistance levels: 19550, 20000, 20625 | Support levels: 18750, 18000, 17500
 

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NZDUSD - New Zealand currency takes advantage of the American dollar weakness

According to the report on foreign trade, exports to New Zealand in September adjusted by 1.6B dollars to 6.0B dollars, while imports – by 1.1B dollars and amounted to 7.6B dollars. Thus, the trade deficit consolidates around 1.6B dollars, down from 2.6B dollars last month. The growth leaders in the export category were livestock products, having increased by 71.0% compared to August, and in the import category – oil and oil products, having added 111.0% over the month. New Zealand is celebrating Labor Day today, and the stock exchanges are closed, as evidenced by low trading volumes, and the dynamics can only change after the start of the American session.

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The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, slightly moving away from the support line.

Resistance levels: 0.5810, 0.5960 | Support levels: 0.5670, 0.5535

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S & P 500 - The US stock market is trying to recover

At the moment, major market participants are publishing corporate financial statements, which are not as positive as experts expected. According to the analytical agency Refinitiv, the profit of 88 companies that reported for the past quarter decreased by an average of 2.6%. The biggest loser on Friday was stocks of Snap Inc., owner of the Snapchat, which shed more than 30.0% amid historically low revenue growth of 6.0% year-on-year. The focus of increased attention of investors is also Twitter Inc., in which the administration of the President of the United States showed interest in terms of initiating possible checks. Telecom operator Verizon Inc., which reported a 24.0% drop in third-quarter net income, is also trading below the market.

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The index quotes continued the local corrective trend, forming a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators keep the sell signal, which has noticeably weakened recently: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars being in the sale zone.

Support levels: 3665, 3495 | Resistance levels: 3810, 3980
 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

GBPUSD pair hovers around 1.1340 level since morning and keeps its stability below it until now, noticing that the price begins to provide negative trades motivated by stochastic negativity, waiting for more decline for the rest of the day as long as the mentioned level remains intact, reminding you that we are waiting to visit 1.1145 as a first target.

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The expected trading range for today is between 1.1200 support and 1.1380 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.
 

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USDJPY within tight track

The USDJPY pair didn’t show any strong move since yesterday, to fluctuate within tight track, settling above the bullish channel’s support line, thus, no change to the bullish trend scenario that depends on the price stability above 148.5, waiting to get positive motive that assists to push the price to head towards our positive targets that start at 150 and extend to 152.
 
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The expected trading range for today is between 148.2 support and 149.9 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.
 
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USDCAD Tests the Support

The USDCAD pair shows negative trades to test the key support 1.3680, as it consolidates above it until now, to keep the bullish trend scenario active for the upcoming period, waiting to head towards 1.3830 initially. Breaching 1.3740 will ease the mission of achieving the expected rise, noting that breaking 1.3680 will stop the positive scenario and put the price under additional negative pressure on the intraday basis.
 
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The expected trading range for today is between 1.3640 support and 1.3790 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.
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XAUUSD

Gold prices show flat trading dynamics, consolidating near 1650.00. Yesterday, "bearish" sentiment prevailed in the instrument, and the XAU/USD pair eventually failed to consolidate on new local highs from October 14. In turn, quotes were moderately supported by the fact of a decrease in the yield of US Treasury bonds. 10-year yields fell from 4.212% to 4.209%, reacting to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics on the level of business activity in October. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.0 points to 49.9 points, while analysts expected a decrease to 51.2 points, and the Services PMI fell from 49.3 points to 46.6 points, which also turned out to be worse than predicted 49.2 points. Today, the US is expected to publish August data on Housing Price Index from S&P Global, as well as the October statistics on the level of Consumer Confidence.

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FTSE 100 - Results of the elections in the UK pushed the index up

The day before, Rishi Sunak was appointed the new Prime Minister and head of the Conservative Party with 178 of the 355 members of the Conservative faction in the House of Commons having voted for him. The official managed the British economy during the coronavirus pandemic and analysts believe that he is able to lead the country out of the current crisis. Probably, this news has already been taken into account by the market, since even the negative effect of the publication of a report on business activity, which showed a decrease from 48.4 points to 45.8 points in the Manufacturing sector and from 50 points, to 47.5 points in the Services sector could not put pressure on the dynamics of the pound.
 
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Quotes of the index continue to try to start corrective growth. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which has noticeably weakened recently.
 
Support levels: 6920, 6710 | Resistance levels: 7090, 7270
 
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ETHUSD - Murrey analysis

Currently, the instrument is close to 1375 (Murrey [2/8]), but further upward dynamics are restrained by the upper border of the downwards channel. If it consolidates above it, the movement can continue to 1450 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%), 1500 (Murrey [ 4/8]) and 1575 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). Otherwise, quotes may return to the lower border of the sideways range 1250 (Murrey [0/8]) or to 1187.5 (Murrey [–1/8]) and 1125 (Murrey [–2/8]).

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Resistance levels: 1375, 1450, 1500, 1575 | Support levels: 1250, 1187.5, 1125
 

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Gold Technical Analysis

Gold price resumes its negative trading to move away from the EMA50, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, waiting for more decline to visit 1615 level that represents our next main target, reminding you that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 1660. 
 
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The expected trading range for today is between 1625 support and 1665 resistance, and the expected trend for today: Bearish.
 
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USDCHF begins with bearish gap

The USDCHF pair opened today’s trading with bearish gap that puts the price under the key support 0.9990, but it begins to cover this gap and attempts to return to the bullish channel again, to keep the chances valid to continue the expected main bullish trend for the upcoming period, which targets 1.0100 followed by 1.0170 levels mainly. Breaching 1 barrier will reinforce the positive overview, while consolidating below 0.999 will put the price under new correctional bearish pressure on the intraday basis.

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The expected trading range for today is between 0.9940 support and 1.008 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.
 

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EURJPY Awaits the Positive Momentum

The EURJPY pair formed clear stability yesterday by settling near 147.00, affected by the efficiency of the bullish track that appears on the chart, in addition to forming additional support at 145.65. Stochastic exit from the overbought areas interprets the reasons of the sideways fluctuation and postponing the waited bullish rally, thus, we will keep waiting to gather the additional positive momentum to ease the mission of breaching 147.60 obstacle and reach the positive stations at 148.40 and 149.35 direct.

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The expected trading range for today is between 146 and 148. The expected trend for today: Bullish

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EURUSD - Strong Statistics from Germany supported Euro quotes

The German index of business expectations in October amounted to 75.6 points, which is higher than 75.3 points in September and better than the forecast of 75.0 points. The assessment of the current situation in the region consolidated at 94.1 points, significantly exceeding the pessimistic forecasts of analysts, which suggested a decrease in the indicator to 92.4 points, and the business climate index at 84.3 points, which corresponds to September 84.4 points and exceeds the preliminary scores 83.3 points. According to experts, this data indicates that after five months of pessimistic views, expectations in the country's business circles have finally found a “bottom,” from which a turn in a positive direction can begin.
 
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The trading instrument is moving within the global downwards channel, coming close to the resistance line and demonstrating its readiness to break it.
 
Resistance levels: 1.0014, 1.0186 | Support levels: 0.9876, 0.9680
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