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NZDUSD - Candlestick analysis

H4

On the four-hour chart, there is a formation of a Double Bottom price pattern, which is reversal and indicates that the asset has reached a local Bottom. In addition, at the key support level of 0.5593, a Morning Star candlestick analysis pattern formed, which also signals that the "bulls" have seized the initiative, and at around 0.5653, a Hammer reversal pattern is formed. To continue the uptrend according to the Double Bottom pattern, the quotes need to test the level of 0.5653, after which, most likely, the asset will continue to recover by impulse movement to the resistance level of 0.5845, overcoming which will mean the retreat of the "bears" from their positions and continued movement to the zone of 0.6149−0.6379. An alternative scenario is possible if the sellers overcome the support level of 0.5593, then the negative dynamics may increase to the area of 0.5348−0.5022.

 

D1

On the daily chart, at the level of 0.5653, there is the formation of a "bullish" Inverted Hammer pattern, which warns market participants about a possible price reversal, and the Hammer and Morning Star candlestick analysis patterns, the combination of which indicates the transition of the initiative to the "bulls". More likely at the moment is a scenario with the continuation of the uptrend to the resistance level of 0.5845, the overcoming of which will allow buyers to head higher in the range of 0.6149−0.6379.

 

Support levels: 0.5593, 0.5348, 0.5022 | Resistance levels: 0.5845, 0.6149, 0.6379

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USDCHF - The pair is consolidating near 0.992

The US dollar shows mixed dynamics of trading during the Asian session, consolidating near local highs from September 28 and 0.9920, despite the fact that the macroeconomic background from the US remained rather weak, and data from Switzerland supported buyers of the franc.

Business activity index from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) in September showed a decline from 52.8 points to 50.9 points. It is worth noting that a similar index from S&P Global rose from 51.8 points to 52.0 points in September with analysts' neutral forecasts. In turn, data from Switzerland pointed to a slowdown in inflation. In September, the Consumer Price Index showed a decrease of 0.2% after rising by 0.3% last month. Finally, the Business Activity Index from SVME recorded a moderate increase from 56.4 points to 57.1 points with analysts' neutral forecasts.

Resistance levels: 0.9948, 1, 1.005, 1.01 | Support levels: 0.9868, 0.9807, 0.9762, 0.97
 

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USDCHF - The pair is consolidating near 0.992

The US dollar shows mixed dynamics of trading during the Asian session, consolidating near local highs from September 28 and 0.9920, despite the fact that the macroeconomic background from the US remained rather weak, and data from Switzerland supported buyers of the franc.

Business activity index from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) in September showed a decline from 52.8 points to 50.9 points. It is worth noting that a similar index from S&P Global rose from 51.8 points to 52.0 points in September with analysts' neutral forecasts. In turn, data from Switzerland pointed to a slowdown in inflation. In September, the Consumer Price Index showed a decrease of 0.2% after rising by 0.3% last month. Finally, the Business Activity Index from SVME recorded a moderate increase from 56.4 points to 57.1 points with analysts' neutral forecasts.

Resistance levels: 0.9948, 1, 1.005, 1.01 | Support levels: 0.9868, 0.9807, 0.9762, 0.97
 

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Crude Oil - Upward correction ahead of the OPEC+ meeting

According to sources within the organization, during the meeting, a decision may be made to reduce the production of "black gold" by 1 million barrels to stabilize prices. Larger production adjustments than previously expected will be an indicator of producers' concern about the rapid slowdown in the global economy in the face of active tightening of monetary policy by leading central banks. A number of experts believe that a consistent increase in interest rates carries the risk of a contraction in the economy in the future. These fears led to the most rapid drop in oil prices since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, forcing OPEC+ to think about ways to stabilize the market. Any move by the cartel to raise prices could put additional pressure on Western consumers, who are under unprecedented pressure amid the energy crisis.

 

An additional factor contributing to the strengthening of the Brent Crude Oil rate remains the disruption of energy supplies to Europe. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that gas consumption in the countries of the region will decrease by 10% this year alone, outstripping the indicators of the largest economic crisis in 2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Of course, fuel shortages, as well as a complete restructuring of supply chains, will put pressure on oil prices for a long time. Against this background, one can assume that in the long term the quotes of the trading instrument will correct to the level of 95.50, in the area of which the further direction of quotes will be determined.

 

 

The long-term trend is downward, but at the moment a correction is developing with the target at 95.5. If the "bears" hold this level, the decline will continue to the area of 89. Otherwise, growth to 104 can be expected.

 

 

The midterm trend remains downtrend. Now the price is moving towards the key resistance at 92.77–91.92, after the test of which it is worth considering new short positions with a target at the September low of 83.50. If the resistance of 92.77–91.92 is broken upwards, then the trend will change to an upward one, and in this case, it is worth moving on to looking for long positions with the target of 101.27–100.42.

 

Resistance levels: 95.5, 104 | Support levels: 88, 83.5

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Nasdaq 100 - Technical analysis

Currently, the instrument is attempting a correction, but for its serious development, the price will have to consolidate above the resistance zone 11725−11875 (Fibo retracement 50%, Murray [2/8]). In this case, the upward dynamics will strengthen to the levels of 12500 (Murray [4/8]) and 12812.5 (Murray [5/8], Fibo retracement 38.2%), however, if the reverse consolidation is below the level of 11250 (Murray [0/8]), the decline may resume in the area of 10937.5 (Murray [-1/8]) and 10625 (Murray [-2/8], Fibo retracement 61.8%).

 

 

Technical indicators signal the continuation of the downward trend: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, while the Stochastic has reversed upwards, not excluding the continuation of corrective growth, but its potential is seen to be limited.   

 

Resistance levels: 11725, 11875, 12500, 12812.5 | Support levels: 11250, 10937.5, 10625

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USDCHF - Candlestick analysis

H4

On the four-hour chart, below the level of 0.9943, there is a formation of a "bearish" Hanging Man pattern, which signals that the asset has reached a local top and warns of a reversal. In addition, the Three Black Crows trend continuation pattern, which included the Bearish Marubozu, indicates that buyers failed to restore the price to previous highs, so at the moment there are prevailing "bearish" sentiments in the instrument. In this situation, a decrease in the quotes of the USD/CHF pair to the support level of 0.9742, consolidation below which will allow sellers to head to the zone of 0.9625–0.9500, is a more likely scenario. An alternative scenario is possible if the "bulls" successfully overcome the resistance level of 0.9846, and then the price may recover to the range of 0.9943–1.0064.

 

 

D1

A Double Top reversal pattern appeared on the daily chart, and the quotes of the trading instrument fell to the Neck area. Completion of the construction of this model should occur at the level of 0.9500. In addition, at 0.9943, there is an appearance of the Evening Star candlestick analysis pattern, which formed the first top, as well as the Bearish Marubozu pattern, which signals the predominance of sellers. Continuation of the downtrend to the support level of 0.9742 is the most likely scenario at the moment, after which the quotes may continue to move towards the area of 0.9625–0.9500.

 

 

Support levels: 0.9742, 0.9625, 0.95 | Resistance levels: 0.9846, 0.9943, 1.0064

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USDCAD - Flat trading dynamics

The pressure on the position of the instrument is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics, which allowed investors to revise their forecasts regarding the pace of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. In particular, market participants drew attention to the rapid drop in the Manufacturing PMI from 52.8 points to 50.9 points, against a forecast of 52.2 points, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The negative background intensified today, when a zero trend in the volume of manufacturing orders in the US was recorded in August after falling by 1% in the previous month, although analysts expected a value of 0.3%. JOLTS Job Openings in August also adjusted from 11.17 million to 10.053 million.

On Wednesday, the market will focus on Automatic Data Processing's (ADP) private sector employment report, as well as the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) September data set on US service sector business activity. Canada will publish statistics on International Merchandise Trade for August.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that high inflation requires policymakers to take decisive action, so officials will continue to raise interest rates despite the fact that the regulator has faced public criticism for increasing the cost of borrowing at a time when many Canadians can hardly afford the goods of the first need. Officials have adjusted the interest rate by 300 basis points in just six months, trying to return inflation to the target level of 2.0%. It is worth noting the effectiveness of the measures taken: in September, the figure fell from 8.1% to 7.0%.

Resistance levels: 1.36, 1.365, 1.37, 1.375 | Support levels: 1.35, 1.344, 1.34, 1.335

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Crude Oil - Upward correction ahead of the OPEC+ meeting

According to sources within the organization, during the meeting, a decision may be made to reduce the production of "black gold" by 1.0 million barrels to stabilize prices. Larger production adjustments than previously expected will be an indicator of producers' concern about the rapid slowdown in the global economy in the face of active tightening of monetary policy by leading central banks. A number of experts believe that a consistent increase in interest rates carries the risk of a contraction in the economy in the future. These fears led to the most rapid drop in oil prices since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, forcing OPEC+ to think about ways to stabilize the market. Any move by the cartel to raise prices could put additional pressure on Western consumers, who are under unprecedented pressure amid the energy crisis.

 

 

The long-term trend is downward, but at the moment a correction is developing with the target at 95.50. If the "bears" hold this level, the decline will continue to the area of 89.00. Otherwise, growth to 104.00 can be expected.

 

 

The midterm trend remains downtrend. Now the price is moving towards the key resistance at 92.77–91.92, after the test of which it is worth considering new short positions with a target at the September low of 83.50. If the resistance of 92.77–91.92 is broken upwards, then the trend will change to an upward one, and in this case, it is worth moving on to looking for long positions with the target of 101.27–100.42.

 

Resistance levels: 95.5, 104 | Support levels: 88, 83.5

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GBPUSD - Pound strength may be temporary

The pound quotes are supported by the partial cancellation of the government's plan to reduce the fiscal burden, which was negatively perceived by the market due to the high probability of an increase in inflation and public debt. Earlier in the week, the Treasury Department announced that it would not cut the income tax rate for wealthy citizens from 45% to 40%, and investors hope that other reliefs under the reform can be adjusted. However, today's GBPUSD growth may be interrupted, as data on business activity in the UK's key Services sector may turn out to be weak. It is expected that in September the indicator will decrease from 50.9 points to 49.2 points and for the first time since the beginning of 2021 will be in the stagnation zone.

 

 

The price of the trading instrument is close to 1.15 (Fibonacci retracement 23.6%), fixing above which will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 1.1718 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.2020 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key for the "bears" is the level of 1.1230 (Murray [7/8]), supported by the center line of Bollinger Bands, the breakdown of which will allow quotes to resume movement to the area of 1.0742 (Murray [6/8]), 1.05.

 

Resistance levels: 1.15, 1.1718, 1.202 | Support levels: 1.123, 1.0742, 1.05, 1.0253

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NZDUSD - RBNZ raises interest rate to a seven-year high

The New Zealand dollar shows a moderate increase during the Asian session, testing 0.5800 for a breakout. The NZDUSD pair renews its local highs from September 23 amid reduced activity in the market, as traders are in no hurry to open new trading positions, waiting for the publication of an extensive block of US macroeconomic statistics on the labor market for September and hoping to receive new signals regarding the pace of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve.

 

 

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held a meeting on Wednesday, following which, as expected, the interest rate was raised by 50 basis points to 3.5%, which was the eighth adjustment of the monetary tightening cycle that started a year ago and the highest rate in the last seven years. According to the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, the "hawkish" course allows maintaining price stability and contributes to the most sustainable employment. The market estimates the probability of an interest rate increase by another 50 basis points at the next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in November to be more than 60%, and by May the value could reach 4.5%. It is worth noting that the decision of the financial authorities somewhat disappointed the traders, who were counting on the easing of pressure from the leading central banks. The day before, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by only 0.25%, while the market expected a correction of 50 basis points. In an accompanying statement, agency officials noted that an increase of 0.25% is necessary to assess the effectiveness of measures already taken to combat inflation.

 

 

Resistance levels: 0.58, 0.585, 0.59, 0.5938 | Support levels: 0.572, 0.565, 0.5563, 0.55

 

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GBPUSD - Pound growth may be temporary

The long-term trend is downward. At the end of September, a correction began in the asset, within which the traders reached the resistance level of 1.1450. If it is held by the "bears", the decline will continue to the levels of 1.06, 1.03.

 

 

The medium-term trend is upward. As part of the trend, the traders reached the target zone 3 (1.1391–1.1355), but failed to break through it, and now the price is correcting down to the key trend support 1.1087–1.1046. After reaching this area, it is worth considering medium-term long positions with the target at the weekly high of 1.1490.

 

 

Resistance levels: 1.1450, 1.1695, 1.177 | Support levels: 1.06, 1.03

 

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ADAUSD - Murray analysis

The ADAUSD pair continues to trade within the short-term downtrend and this week tested the 0.4150 mark (Murray [1/8]), but could not consolidate below it. If successful, the downward dynamics of the cryptocurrency will resume to the levels of 0.3906 (Murray [0/8]) and 0.3662 (Murray [-1/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 0.4394 (Murray [2/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, when overcoming which it will be possible to reverse the current trend and strengthen the positions of the digital asset to the levels of 0.4882 (Murray [4/8]) and 0.5127 (Murray [5/8]).

 

 

The downtrend persists, as evidenced by the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the stabilization of the MACD histogram in the negative zone, however, the upward reversal of the Stochastic does not exclude the continuation of corrective growth, but its potential is seen to be limited.   

 

Resistance levels: 0.4394, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.4150, 0.3906, 0.3662

 

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AUDUSD - The pair returns to record lows

Investors are waiting for today's publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US on the situation on the labor market in September. Analysts' forecasts suggest that the economy will add about 250 thousand new jobs outside the agricultural sector after rising by 315 thousand in the previous month, while Unemployment will remain at the same level of 3.7%. A slight decrease in hourly wages is also possible, but otherwise the estimates are fairly neutral.

 

 

In the meantime, the data from Australia released the day before put moderate pressure on the instrument. Thus, Export volumes in August added 2.6% after a sharp decline by 9.9% last month, while Imports for the same period increased by 4.5% after an increase of 5.2% earlier, mainly due to the supply of fuels and lubricants. However, a serious downward correction of the AUD/USD quotes is hindered by rising prices for commodities, primarily coal, which is one of the most important Australian export commodities. Meanwhile, Australia's Trade Surplus narrowed slightly in August from 8.733 million to 8.324 million Australian dollars, while analysts had expected the figure to rise to 10.500 million Australian dollars.

 

 

Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

 

Resistance levels: 0.645, 0.6522, 0.6572, 0.665 | Support levels: 0.6362, 0.632, 0.625, 0.62

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EURUSD - European currency remains under pressure

The single currency noticeably weakened in the second half of last week after the publication of Friday's report on the US labor market, which confirmed the commitment of the US Federal Reserve to the course of further tightening of monetary policy. Thus, in September, 263.0 thousand new jobs were created after 315.0 thousand recorded in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth of the indicator by only 250.0 thousand. At the same time, the Average Hourly Earnings in September maintained a monthly growth rate of 0.3%, but slowed down in annual terms from 5.2% to 5.0%. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5%, while investors did not expect any changes.

 

 

Weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany put additional pressure on the instrument. Retail Sales fell 1.3% in August after increasing 1.9% a month earlier, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.0%. In annual terms, the decline in sales accelerated from -2.6% to -4.3%, which turned out to be slightly better than experts' forecasts at the level of -5.1%.

 

 

Meanwhile, gas reserves in European storage facilities, according to the Gas Infrastructure Europe association, exceeded 90.1%, while warm weather in the region, as well as high wind generation rates, contribute to a decrease in "blue fuel" prices in Europe. The spot gas price at the Dutch gas hub TTF fell to a low of 1.612 thousand dollars. Nevertheless, experts believe that in order to combat the consequences of the energy crisis, the European authorities need to spend more than 1.5 trillion euros additionally, otherwise the decline in GDP could range from 6.5 to 11.5%.

 

Resistance levels: 0.975, 0.98, 0.985, 0.99 | Support levels: 0.97, 0.96, 0.9534, 0.95

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AUDUSD - Long-term trend remains downwards

Last week, investors were focused on the publication of economic data from the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics: Nonfarm Payrolls for September amounted to 263.0K against the forecast of 250.0K. Also, unemployment significantly decreased from the previous 3.7% to 3.5% against expectations of 3.7%, which investors took extremely positively. Following the news release, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME Group) FedWatch Instrument estimates the likelihood of a 75 basis point hike in November at 77%. Against this background, the AUDUSD pair broke through 0.6390 and is preparing to continue its decline toward 0.6260.

 

 

The long-term trend remains downwards. After breaking through 0.6390, the next sell target is 0.6260, after which the price may drop to 0.61.

 

 

The medium-term trend is downwards, and within its framework last week, the target zone 4 (0.6336–0.6316) was reached, which investors are trying to break through today, after which the target for sales will be zone 5 (0.6136–0.6116). The key resistance of the trend is shifting to the levels of 0.6501–0.6483.

 

Resistance levels: 0.639, 0.6525, 0.67 | Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6100

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair touched 0.97 level and attempts to break it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that breaking this level will push the price to 0.9550 as a next main station, while the expected decline will remain valid unless the price rallied to breach 0.9790 and hold above it.

 

 

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9650 support and 0.9800 resistance. 

The expected trend for today: Bearish

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The GBPUSD pair completed forming head and shoulders’ pattern that appears on the chart, thus, the chances are valid to provide more negative trades in the upcoming sessions, and the targets begin by surpassing the waited target at 1.1015 to reach 1.0845 as a next negative station.
 
Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period, taking into consideration that breaching 1.1186 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to turn to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0990 support and 1.1150 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish

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NZDUSD Technical Outlook

The NZDUSD pair provided more negative trades to touch our second target at 0.5564 and presses negatively on it, in attempt to confirm breaking it now, reinforcing the expectations of extending the bearish wave on the intraday and short-term basis, waiting to test 0.5500 as a next target.

 

 

The EMA50 keeps pressing negatively on the price to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend scenario, noting that holding below 0.5610 is important to continue the suggested decline. The expected trading range for today is between 0.5480 support and 0.560 resistance

 

The expected trend for today: Bearish

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USDCAD Technical Outlook

The USDCAD pair succeeded to touch our waited target at 1.383 now, providing positive trades that support the chances of surpassing this level to head towards achieving more bullish bias in the upcoming sessions, noting that our next target extends to 1.39.

The bullish channel organizes the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 1.376. The expected trading range for today is between 1.376 support and 1.391 resistance. 

The expected trend for today: Bullish
 

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Gold Technical Outlook

Gold price continued to decline to surpass our first target at 1673 and reach the extended target at 1660, and we expect the continuation of the negative pressure to break the last level and open the way for more decline on the intraday basis, to head towards visiting 1645 followed by 1630.00 levels as next negative stations.

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain active for the upcoming period, noting that breaching 1686.4 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to recover again. The expected trading range for today is between 1640.00 support and 1680.00 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Bearish