official Market Update by Solidecn.com

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Apple - technical analysis

On the daily chart, the quotes remain within the global Expanding formation pattern, forming a new downward wave, which has already almost reached its intermediate target at the 61.8% Fibonacci full retracement around 146. On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the current movement is developing according to the classical structure. After rebounding from the initial correction of 23.6% Fibonacci around 163.8, the price continued its global decline, almost breaking the intermediate correction of 50.0% Fibonacci around 151.50, which is key support for the current trend.

Technical indicators confirm the high probability of continued decline: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.
 

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AUDUSD - Investors are disappointed with rising unemployment in Australia

The Australian currency has been showing weakness lately, reinforced by yesterday's report on the national labor market: the unemployment rate rose to 3.5%, the first increase since September 2021. The number of unemployed rose by 14.0K to 487.7K people, the youth unemployment rate rose to 8.4%, and the employment-to-population ratio increased to 64.3% from 64.2% a month earlier. Full-time employment added 58.8K people, but part-time employment decreased by 25.3K people: citizens are striving to get a stable job in the face of constant growth in prices and rates on debt obligations.

Technical indicators reversed and now are holding a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.677, 0.6916 | Support levels: 0.6684, 0.653

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NZDUSD - New Zealand's economy continues to slow down

One of the drivers of the movement of quotations was the report on the state of the New Zealand economy in the second quarter, according to which the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.7% after falling by 0.2% a quarter earlier, while analysts expected growth by 1.0%, which, however, did not have a significant impact on the annual rate, which slowed to 0.4% from 1.2% a quarter earlier, while the forecast was 0.2%. Thus, the average annual GDP slowed down to 1.0% from 5.1% earlier. Today's data on business activity showed an increase in the Manufacturing PMI in August to 54.9 points from 53.5 points a month earlier and somewhat slowed down the downward dynamics of the instrument in anticipation of the release of statistics on Household Spending next week.

 

 

Quotes of the NZDUSD pair are traded within the global downtrend, again approaching the support line of the downstream channel. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which started strengthening: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sell zone, forming descending bars.

 

Support levels: 0.5955, 0.58 | Resistance levels: 0.6035, 0.621

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McDonald's technical analysis

Shares of McDonald's Corp., the world's largest chain of fast-food restaurants, correct within a downtrend at 255. On the daily chart, there is a global upward correction, within which a local Head and shoulders reversal pattern is formed with the Neckline at 250. The four-hour chart shows that the price failed to realize it, but this week it may make a second attempt, in which case the support line around 245.00 will act as a local obstacle, consolidation below which will open the way to the main target at 236.

Technical indicators have completely reversed downwards: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.

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USDCHF - Swiss economy remains under pressure

Switzerland's trade balance will be published tomorrow, which could fall to annual lows of 2.9B francs due to the continued rise in the cost of imports: this figure added 8.6% in August compared to last year's value. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will publish fresh economic forecasts, which will reflect the situation with inflation, which due to rising import prices, may increase to 3.3–3.5% this month, which is another anti-record for the country.

 

 

On the daily chart, the price is correcting within the downwards corridor, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators keep a sell signal, which has weakened due to an upward correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed another downward bar in the sell zone.

 

Resistance levels: 0.97, 0.9843 | Support levels: 0.9587, 0.941

 

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USDJPY - Trades within the global uptrend

Today, the Nikkei published an article regarding the possible continuation of the fall in Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) in the coming quarter: for the first time since 1992, the figure may fall below 4.0T dollars due to the record depreciation of the yen, which occurs due to large differences in accounting central bank rates, and if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates this week, the Japanese currency will be under even greater pressure. Inflation data will be published tomorrow: the nationwide consumer price index may increase to 2.7% in August from 2.4% earlier, a fairly fast growth rate that strains the economy.

 

 

The trading instrument is moving within the global uptrend, holding near the year's high, around 143. Technical indicators still ignore local price fluctuations and keep a stable buy signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new bars well above the transition level.

 

Resistance levels: 144.55, 147 | Support levels: 142.1, 138.95

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Crude Oil - Oil prices are consolidating

Brent Crude Oil prices show near-zero dynamics, consolidating near the level of 91. Pressure on quotes is exerted by expectations of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the interest rate may be raised by 75 basis points for the third time in a row. The Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland are also expected to tighten their monetary policies this week. The increase in interest rates is aimed at containing the sharp increase in inflation, but also leads to a slowdown in economic activity. In particular, analysts assess the risks of a recession in the European economy, which also faced serious challenges due to the energy crisis.

Another negative factor affecting the quotes of "black gold" is the fall in industrial activity in China due to its zero tolerance policy towards COVID-19. Finally, the markets are concerned about the restrictions that apply to the import of oil and oil products from the Russian Federation. Western countries continue to discuss the introduction of marginal prices for Russian "black gold".

Today, the focus of investors will be data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the week ended September 16. The previous report reflected a sharp increase in reserves of "black gold" by 6.035 million barrels, while the US Department of Energy reported an increase of only 2.442 million barrels.

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, having reversed upwards at the end of last week. Current readings of the indicators signal in favor of a corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 91, 92.47, 94.5, 96.54 | Support levels: 88.79, 87, 86, 85

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Walmart - Technical analysis

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting upwards after a significant decline, forming a local ascending channel with boundaries of 132 – 146. Now the quotes have reached the support line of the range, after which an upward wave began. On the four-hour chart of the asset, the price is above the key level of the basic correction of 38.2% Fibonacci around 133 in favor of continuing the positive dynamics, after consolidation above which, the growth may continue to a full correction of 61.8% Fibonacci around 144.

Technical indicators confirm the upward momentum: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, despite ambiguous fluctuations, is moving in the buying zone.
 

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Crude Oil - Oil prices are consolidating

Brent Crude Oil prices show near-zero dynamics, consolidating near the level of 91. Pressure on quotes is exerted by expectations of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the interest rate may be raised by 75 basis points for the third time in a row. The Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland are also expected to tighten their monetary policies this week. The increase in interest rates is aimed at containing the sharp increase in inflation, but also leads to a slowdown in economic activity. In particular, analysts assess the risks of a recession in the European economy, which also faced serious challenges due to the energy crisis.

Another negative factor affecting the quotes of "black gold" is the fall in industrial activity in China due to its zero tolerance policy towards COVID-19. Finally, the markets are concerned about the restrictions that apply to the import of oil and oil products from the Russian Federation. Western countries continue to discuss the introduction of marginal prices for Russian "black gold".

Today, the focus of investors will be data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the week ended September 16. The previous report reflected a sharp increase in reserves of "black gold" by 6.035 million barrels, while the US Department of Energy reported an increase of only 2.442 million barrels.

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, having reversed upwards at the end of last week. Current readings of the indicators signal in favor of a corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 91, 92.47, 94.5, 96.54 | Support levels: 88.79, 87, 86, 85
 

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USDCAD - Markets are awaiting the decision of the US Federal Reserve

This week, the trading instrument renewed another annual high at 1.3340, and one of the reasons for the weakening of the Canadian dollar was yesterday's national macroeconomic statistics: the industrial price index for August fell by 1.2%, much worse than the growth of 0.2% expected by analysts, resulting in a slowdown in annual growth from 11.5% to 10.6%. Import prices for the same period decreased by 4.2% against an expected increase of 3.2%, which decreased the annual value from 19.1% to 17.6%. The USD/CAD pair demonstrates ambiguous dynamics ahead of today's publication of the consumer price index: analysts are counting on negative dynamics in the amount of –0.1%, which could contribute to a drop in annual data from 7.6% to 7.3%.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.2800–1.3400, approaching the resistance line. The Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms upward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3310, 1.3450 | Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3040
 

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Dow Jones - The bond market hinders the growth of the stock index

Tomorrow's interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve will have a key impact on the dynamics of the US market. There is no doubt that the value will be raised, as officials from the regulator, including its Chair Jerome Powell, have said that they are ready to do anything to bring inflation back to 2.0%, even if this has a negative impact on the economy. At the moment, most experts suggest a rate increase of 75 basis points.

 

 

Quotes of the index continue corrective dynamics, falling towards the low of the year. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which is weakening: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is quite wide and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new descending bars, being in the sales area.

 

Support levels: 30860, 29770 | Resistance levels: 31570, 32480

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GBPUSD - The pound is preparing to renew the year's lows

The pound has consolidated near another historical low and is being traded in anticipation of new macroeconomic data but investors are paying attention to consumer sentiment now. Yesterday, Prime Minister Liz Truss said that the issue of rationing electricity tariffs is not worth it, as they will be frozen. Ordinary Britons fear the measure will come at a too high current cost: rates have risen sharply in recent times, putting a heavy strain on households that risk a financial crisis by the start of winter.

The US dollar continues to develop positive dynamics in anticipation of today's meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Investors perceived yesterday's data on the housing market as neutral: the number of building permits issued in August decreased to 1.517M from 1.658M, which is a fairly significant drop when taking into account the average values of the current year, and the volume of construction of new houses, on the contrary, showed a significant increase, amounting to 1.575M instead of 1.404M a month earlier.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, declining along the support line. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.1462, 1.1686 | Support levels: 1.13, 1.11

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XAUUSD - Investors continue to reduce their positions in gold

Today the decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy will be published. Most analysts believe that the interest rate will be raised by 75 basis points, which could lead to another rise in the dollar and exceed the summer peak of 110 in the USD Index. The price of gold is tightly tied to the price of the US currency, and even taking into account the stability of the precious metal, the growth of the USD Index by 2-3% can provoke a decrease in asset quotes by 1-2%. The main scenario of analysts today assumes such a variant of price movement.

In turn, the demand for contracts for gold has recently declined slightly. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), sellers continued to actively reduce their positions last week, while buyers slightly strengthen them. In the positions of swap dealers, which usually react quickly to any changes in the market, buyers increased their number by 0.535 thousand contracts, while sellers reduced them by 4.059 thousand contracts. As for the general trend, the number of positions has been decreasing for the third week in a row, this time to 97.3 thousand from 103.9 thousand.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is holding in a descending channel and after reaching the low of the year at 1650 is still at these levels. Technical indicators hold a sell signal, which remains quite strong: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line again, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new downward bars, being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1650, 1610 | Resistance levels: 1680, 1730

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EURUSD - In anticipation of poor statistics on business activity in the EU

The European currency is showing negative dynamics against its main competitors in anticipation of tomorrow's publication of an extensive block of macroeconomic statistics: analysts predict a decline in business activity indicators for September in almost all leading EU countries. Thus, Composite PMI in Germany may fall to 46.0 points from 46.9 points in August, and Composite PMI in France may fall to 49.8 points from 50.4 points earlier. EU Composite PMI index of business activity in the EU is expected to be 48.2 points, down from 48.9 points in the previous period.

Yesterday, analysts' attention was focused on the US markets. The US dollar renewed the year's high and is currently trading around 111.200 in the USD Index after the country's financial regulator raised its interest rate by 75.0 basis points to 3.25% and provided forecasts for the development of the economic situation. Expectations worsened on all three main indicators: inflation in 2022 is expected at 5.4% from 5.2% previously, unemployment will increase to 3.8% from 3.7% earlier, and economic growth may slow to 0.2% from 1.7% earlier, which most disappointed experts, as the decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) confirms the annual recession.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.9900, 1.012 | Support levels: 0.9800, 0.965
 

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Crude Oil - Growth in US inventories puts pressure on asset quotes

According to a Reuters report yesterday, OPEC+'s target deviation in production is currently around 3.58M barrels per day (about 3.5% of global demand). The excess relative to the August value of 2.89M barrels amounted to 24%. According to cartel representatives, the negative dynamics are observed due to insufficient investment in oil projects in Nigeria and Angola and the impact of Western sanctions on Russian production. Thus, the production of hydrocarbons in Nigeria in August fell by a record 1.0M barrels against fuel theft from pipelines.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a downwards corridor, approaching the year's low. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 91.15, 96.4 | Support levels: 86.85, 77.66

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XRPUSD - Growth contrary to general market trends

Over the weekend, Ripple Labs and SEC lawyers filed motions for a summary judgment in the case, signaling the imminent completion of a process in which the company has a significant chance of winning, as officials could not prove that the XRP token fully met the definition of a security. The chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Caroline D. Pham, also visited the corporation's central office, where she met with the head of Ripple, Brad Garlinghouse. Although the parties did not announce the purpose of the visit, its very fact was positively assessed by the market, as it may indicate a gradual decrease in pressure from American regulators on the crypto company. All this caused a new interest of investors, first of all, "whales" in the XRP token, provoking the strengthening of its position.

The trading instrument rose above 0.4150 (Murrey [+1/8]), which gives the prospect of further growth to 0.4395 (Murrey [+2/8]), 0.4600, 0.4950. If 0.3906 (Murrey [8/8]) is broken down, the decline may resume to 0.3418 (Murrey [6/8]). Technical indicators confirm the upward trend: Bollinger bands reverse upwards, the MACD histogram increases in the positive zone, and Stochastic may leave the overbought zone, but the downside potential is limited.

Resistance levels: 0.4395, 0.4600, 0.4950 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418

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NZDUSD - The situation in the New Zealand economy remains difficult

The key driver of the downward movement of quotations is the trade deficit of New Zealand, which in August, for the first time in history, reached –12.280B dollars, falling from –11.970B in the previous period and losing 2.447B dollars on a monthly basis. The main factor behind the negative dynamics is the continued growth in the value of imports, which amounted to 7.93B dollars in August compared to 7.76B dollars earlier. Exports fell to 5.48B dollars from 6.35B dollars earlier. The cost of fuel imports rose the most — by 462.0M dollars or 79%.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, approaching the support line of the downstream channel. Technical indicators maintain a strong sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Support levels: 0.58, 0.565 | Resistance levels: 0.59, 0.603
 

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USDCAD - Trend change in the pair

This week, there was a lack of Canadian statistics published, which allowed the quotes of the trading instrument to remain under the full control of the US currency, but today the situation may change after Statistics Canada publishes data on retail sales for July. According to forecasts, the underlying indicator may decline by 1.2% after rising by 0.8% a month earlier, while retail sales may decrease by 2.0% after rising by 1.1% in June, which only exacerbates the dynamics of the trading instrument.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price continues to trade above the resistance line of the wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.28 – 1.34, confidently holding in the uptrend. The Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the AO oscillator's histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.354, 1.375 | Support levels: 1.34, 1.322
 

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GBPUSD - Active decline amid the rhetoric of the British authorities

The key impact on the dynamics of the asset was made by the report of the new UK Secretary of the Treasury, Kwasi Kwarteng, who announced measures to stabilize the economic situation: also to support the payment of electricity bills, the situation with taxation caused special attention. The official noted that the government is working on a plan for a significant reduction in fees, for the implementation of which it will be necessary to raise an additional 72.0B pounds, and one of the ways the government announced to receive these funds is to reduce the amount of unemployment benefits, due to which the majority of the UK population now lives. After this statement, investors are actively redirecting their capital to other currencies, which may lead to the achievement of parity between the pound and the US dollar soon.

 

 

The trading instrument has left the boundaries of a long downward channel and, having broken the support line, is actively declining. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars.

 

Resistance levels: 1.08, 1.1214 | Support levels: 1.0276, 1

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USDJPY - Bank of Japan started foreign exchange interventions

The Bank of Japan conducted the first foreign exchange intervention since 1998 to support the yen after the decision to keep interest rates at a very low level of –0.10%. Its value is unknown but judging by the movement on the stock exchange, it was a test operation to determine the “depth” of the market, but more serious steps may follow from the financial authorities, which will provoke new pressure on the USD/JPY pair. It is obvious that the key point for making a decision will be 145.00, upon reaching which the officials are likely to approve new interventions. It is quite logical that in the current situation, macroeconomic statistics faded into the background, but this morning, Service PMI in Japan was published, which in September rose to 51.9 points after three months of decline in a row.

The trading instrument is moving within the global uptrend, holding near the high of the year, around 145.9. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms bars well above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 144.55, 145.9 | Support levels: 142.30, 140.33