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NZDUSD - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, there is the formation of a Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which means a continuation of the downtrend. In addition, under the resistance level of 0.6239, another Three Black Crows figure appeared, which confirms the previous pattern and emphasizes the strength of the "bears". However, at the moment, one can see the construction of the Morning Star reversal pattern above the level of 0.6152, which means that a strong support line has formed at the current level, where buyers have activated, but in order to fully confirm the reversal, the "bulls" should consolidate above the resistance level of 0.6239. In this case, the asset can restore positions to the zone of 0.6362 – 0.6475. If the trading instrument reaches the key support level of 0.6102 and consolidates below it, one should expect further downward movement to the range of 0.5929 – 0.5785.

D1
On the daily chart, at the level of 0.6362, there is the formation of a Hanging Man reversal pattern, after which the asset showed a decrease to the level of 0.6189. In addition, the movement was accompanied by the formation of the Three Black Crows candlestick analysis model, which included the Shooting Star candlestick. The combination of these figures may mean a continuation of the negative dynamics for the instrument after a short-term price rebound. It is likely that the NZDUSD pair will continue to lose positions after an upward correction to 0.6239, thus testing the broken down level, overcoming which will allow quotes to reach the area of 0.6102, where the buying zone is concentrated. If the "bulls" fail to hold this level, the asset may fall down to the level of 0.5785.

Support levels: 0.6102, 0.5929, 0.5785 | Resistance levels: 0.6239, 0.6362, 0.6475

 

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Against the background of the growth of the American currency, the GBPUSD pair is correcting around 1.1826.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the long-term channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.14 – 1.214, preparing to test the year's low at 1.1741. The four-hour chart shows that the year's low coincides with the initial trend of 61.8% on the Fibonacci extension (1.1741), and in the case of consolidation below it, the downward movement may continue and reach the basic trend of 100% on the Fibonacci extension around 1.1400, which corresponds to the support line of the downward channel.

Technical indicators confirm the high probability of a downward trend and keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.
 

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AUDUSD, H4

On the four-hour chart, above the level of 0.6846, there is a formation of a Hammer candlestick pattern, which may warn market participants that the asset is in the area of low prices and will soon begin to unfold. In addition, a Doji pattern was formed, signaling the uncertainty in the market and the equality of the forces of "bulls" and "bears". This pattern usually indicates reversals in the instrument; however, it requires additional "bullish" confirmation in the local basis. Thus, at the moment, it is most likely that the quotes of the AUD/USD pair will fall to the support level of 0.6846, overcoming which will open the way for the "bears" to the zone of 0.6680 – 0.6401. An alternative scenario is possible after fixing the quotes of the trading instrument above the resistance level of 0.7031 with the targets at 0.7184 – 0.7392.

 

 

AUDUSD, D1

On the daily chart, there is the formation of a Bear Marubozu candlestick analysis pattern, which emphasizes the strength of sellers, as well as the formation of a Three Black Crows figure under the resistance level of 0.7031, which also signals a continuation of the downtrend. Currently, the asset is most likely forming a Falling Three Methods pattern, which is a continuation of the trend and warns that quotes may continue to move down. More likely is a scenario with a downtrend to the level of 0.6846, the overcoming of which will allow sellers to strengthen the movement up to the level of 0.6401.

 

Support levels: 0.6846, 0.6680, 0.6401 | Resistance levels: 0.7031, 0.7184, 0.7392

 

 

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The USDJPY pair is trading around 137.15.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting as part of a global uptrend, the deceleration stage of which increasingly resembles a global Head and shoulders reversal pattern with a Neckline around 132.78. On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the potential for the development of a downward movement, in this case, will be quite high but to confirm the implementation of the pattern, the quotes of the trading instrument need to reverse from the current prices and not overcome the annual high of 139.35.

Technical indicators keep a buy signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is expanding upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator has formed the first rising bar after moving into the buy zone.
 

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The XAGUSD pair continues its local corrective trend and is now around 18.94.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price of the precious metal is declining within the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries at 20 – 16. After reaching the resistance line at 20.9, the trading instrument reversed and formed another wave of decline. The target could be the global support level of 16.68. On the four-hour chart, the downside potential looks quite high, and if the quotes consolidate below the initial trend level of 61.8% on the Fibonacci extension, which coincides with the low of the year at 18.31, there will be no serious support for the price, and the position can be realized.

Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed the first downward bar after moving into the sell zone.

 

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USDCAD - The pair is retreating from local highs

Last Friday, renewed June data on retail sales in Canada was published, which provided little support to the national currency: the core index was 0.8% MoM against the forecast of 0.9%, but in annual terms, the indicator consolidated around 1.1% against the background of preliminary estimates of experts at 0.3%. Retail sales excluding cars for the same period adjusted from 1.9% to 0.8%. Another negative factor that influenced the dynamics of the trading instrument was the publication of the July index of prices for new housing in Canada, which rose by 0.1% but did not live up to the forecast of 0.3% and was worse than the previous value of 0.2%.

As for the US economy, the core retail sales index for July added 0.4%, exceeding the forecast of –0.1%. However, the volume of retail sales for July remained unchanged, showing a value of 0.0%, against the preliminary estimates of 0.1%. Next month, traders expect the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the range of 0.50% to 0.75%, and the market is already pricing this scenario into the value of assets, primarily the US dollar. If the experts' expectations are justified, the US dollar will continue to strengthen, and, accordingly, the USD/CAD pair will rise with the target at the July high of 1.3218.

The long-term trend is upwards. The key support area formed in the price range 1.2780–1.2740, and the buyers held it. As a result, the upward dynamics will continue to 1.3157 and 1.3218. The mid-term trend changed to an uptrend last week. The trading instrument broke the target zone 1.2966–1.2945, and the next target is zone 2 (1.3192–1.3170). The key trend support is shifting to 1.2839–1.2818, and in case of correction of quotes to this area, it will be possible to open new long positions.

Resistance levels: 1.3065, 1.3157, 1.3218 | Support levels: 1.2935, 1.2780, 1.2740

 

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FTSE 100 - British business activity data disappointed investors

The UK stock market this week will remain focused on today's publication of data on business activity in the leading sectors of the economy. As analysts expected, the slowdown in indicators continued, which in the long term is a negative signal. Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.0 points from 52.1 points, and Services PMI amounted to 52.5 points after 52.6 points recorded in the previous period.

In the corporate segment, the telecommunications company Vodafone Group Plc. sold its Hungarian division 4iG Public Limited. The amount of the deal is estimated at 1.78 billion dollars, and some experts consider it too low. In turn, the UK bond market continues its upward correction: the yield on 10-year government bonds amounted to 2.514%, while the rate on conservative 20-year bonds again reached its June peak at around 2.929%.

Quotes of the index continue to trade within the global side channel, approaching the upper limit. Technical indicators are holding a buy signal, which has recently begun to weaken: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations started to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.

Support levels: 7456, 7200 | Resistance levels: 7558, 7693

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GBPUSD - the pound tries to recover from record lows

The British pound is showing mixed dynamics, testing 1.1830 for a breakout. The day before, the GBPUSD pair showed a moderate corrective growth, which was partly caused by the depreciation of the US currency in almost the entire spectrum of the market.

Among other things, pressure on dollar quotes was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the US. Thus, the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in August corrected from 52.2 points to 51.3 points, although analysts expected a decrease to only 52 points, and the Services PMI fell sharply from 47.3 points to 44.1 points, while it was expected that the indicator would rise to 49.2 points. However, it should be noted that the British statistics also turned out to be disappointing: the Services PMI in August corrected from 52.1 points to 46.0 points, while the forecast was at the level of 51.1 points.

Investors today are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the results of the symposium in Jackson Hole, which is to be addressed by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The official is expected to give clear signals on the pace of interest rate hikes in September and beyond, as well as comments on the prospects for a recession amid deteriorating energy markets.

Meanwhile, London Mayor Sadiq Khan said most people in the country will not be able to pay their heating bills and even afford food this winter amid record inflation, which has reached 10.1% in annual terms, the highest since 1982. According to Bloomberg analysts, electricity tariffs will reach 4K pounds per month by January next year. The UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) may set a price ceiling of around 4.266K pounds in the first months of next year, nearly 0.650K pounds more than the agency's previous forecast.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from its lows, is trying to recover, indicating the corrective growth development in the near future.

Resistance levels: 1.1854, 1.1933, 1.2, 1.2054 | Support levels: 1.18, 1.1758, 1.17, 1.165
 

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USDCHF - The US dollar develops an uptrend

The US dollar is showing moderate growth, testing the level of 0.966 for a breakout. The day before, USDCHF has already made attempts to consolidate above this level, but by the end of the day session, the "bulls" have lost all their positions, and the dollar retreated to the opening levels.

The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics was the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, market participants drew attention to the decline in business activity indices, as well as New Home Sales, which fell by 12.6% in July after falling by 7.1% a month earlier. In addition, investors are in no hurry to open new long positions ahead of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The official is expected to intensify "hawkish" rhetoric, but more moderate signals for further tightening of monetary policy are not ruled out.

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also trying to consolidate above the zero level. Stochastic, having reached its peak values is reversing into a descending plane, signaling in favor of the development of a correctional decline in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.97, 0.9762, 0.9847, 0.99 | Support levels: 0.965, 0.9594, 0.952, 0.9469

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USDJPY - Dollar is falling ahead of Jerome Powell's speech

Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions in anticipation of the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as part of the symposium starting today in Jackson Hole, hoping to get hints on further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy. To date, analysts estimate the likelihood of an interest rate hike in September by 50 basis points and by 75 basis points about the same. In addition, market participants hope that the Fed Chairman will comment on the prospects for tightening the existing parameters in the face of worsening forecasts for the energy crisis.

Macroeconomic statistics from Japan published today does not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Meanwhile, Corporate Service Price Index corrected from 2.0% to 2.1% in July from a forecast of 2.2%, Foreign Bond Investment fell by 79.2 billion yen for the week ended August 19 after a record increase of 1154.7 billion yen over the previous period, and Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks for the same period fell from 45.3 billion yen to 28.5 billion yen.

The Ministry of Finance of Japan presented statistics on the level of oil purchases: last month, the country increased the transportation of "black gold" from Russia by 65.4% compared to the same period in 2021, and by 10% from the Middle East. However, Russian liquefied natural gas imports corrected downwards by 26.1%, and coal imports fell by 40.1%. Despite the fact that the rhetoric of the Japanese authorities is aimed at a phased reduction in the use of raw materials from the Russian Federation, official Tokyo announced the conclusion of contracts with the new operator of the Sakhalin-2 project, LLC Sakhalin Energy.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD tends to reverse into the descending plane preserving the previous buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline, testing the level of "80" for a breakdown. Current readings of the indicator signal in favor of a corrective decline in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 137.5, 138.5, 139.5, 140.5 | Support levels: 136.5, 135.57, 134.54, 134
 

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GBPUSD - Traders are confident in the acceleration of the pace of rate hikes by the Bank of England

A regular meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled for September 15, at which the issue of further tightening monetary policy will be discussed. Judging by the dynamics of futures, traders expect an increase in interest rates to at least 75.0 basis points from the current 50 points, but a 100 basis point increase is not ruled out. These options became more actively discussed after the price of natural gas on the London Intercontinental Exchange reached 3.1 dollars per thousand cubic meters, which makes imports much more expensive and increases the burden on consumers.

The US dollar retreated somewhat from its highs and is trading at 108.600 in the USD Index. Investors reacted weakly to yesterday's data on durable goods orders, which remained in June, although basic orders rose slightly, adding 0.3%. The US housing market is still experiencing some difficulties, as evidenced by yesterday's data on the index of pending sales: the index fell by 1.0% in July, which indicates a large number of pending transactions.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator continues to expand in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1883, 1.2219 | Support levels: 1.1717, 1.1452.
 

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NZDUSD - Trades within the global downtrend

According to the morning report from Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ), retail sales corrected by –2.3% in June, reflecting the negative dynamics for the second consecutive quarter after falling by 0.9% in the previous period. This time, ten out of fifteen retail sectors showed a decline. Thus, their sales of cars and spare parts fell by 5.8%, while the sector of durable electronic goods decreased by 6.1%. The leading positions are still held by food delivery services, adding 3.3% over the reporting period. Thus, inflation continues to pressure households, preventing the quotes of the New Zealand currency from changing the trend and starting a systematic strengthening of the exchange rate.

Meanwhile, the American currency continues its corrective dynamics, consolidating slightly below 109.000 in the USD Index. Markets are looking ahead to US Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) data today, and with forecasts of a quarterly decline of 0.8%, the pressure on the US Fed ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is increasing significantly. Also, weekly data on initial jobless claims will be published on Thursday. The indicator is expected to grow from 250.0K to 253.0K, which, in turn, may harm the national currency rate.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downtrend, gradually approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading, forming downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6247, 0.6450 | Support levels: 0.6162, 0.6058
 

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Crude Oil - Reducing US oil inventories makes the prices grow

Brent crude oil quotes rose above 100 dollars per barrel for the first time since August 12, reaching a resistance level in the 102 area after the publication of US statistics and reports of production cuts by OPEC+ members.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude stocks fell by 5.632M barrels, well below the forecast of 0.450M barrels and the previous value of 0.448M barrels. A similar report from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) also showed a decline of 3.282M barrels, lower than the forecast of –0.933M barrels but higher than the previous value of –7.056M barrels. Also, the energy quotes are supported by reports that OPEC+ representatives are ready to reduce production if cheap Iranian oil is brought to the market after the signing of the “nuclear deal” by official Tehran and Western countries.

Against this background, the quotes of the trading instrument went into an upward correction and reached 102, after the breakdown of which the movement will continue to 110. However, the long-term trend is still downwards. If this level is kept, the decline in the asset will increase to the area of 93.55.

The medium-term trend is down, and the price is testing the border of the corridor of 102.30–101.45. If it is held, the decline will continue with the target at the August low at 93.20. Otherwise, the market expects a trend change to an uptrend, and zone 2 (110.80–109.95) will become the target for purchases.

Resistance levels: 102, 110 | Support levels: 96.24, 93.55

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USDJPY - US economy downturn continues in Q2

The price index for corporate goods and services remained at 2.1% YoY, slightly inferior to the 2.2% that analysts forecasted. This morning, data on the core consumer price index in Tokyo in August were published, according to which inflation rose in annual terms to 2.6% from 2.3% earlier. Full inflation-adjusted for fuel and food rose to 2.9% from 2.5% previously. As a rule, prices in Tokyo are very often close to the general value throughout the country, and the fact that it did not exceed 3.0% is a positive signal that allows the Bank of Japan to implement its policy of negative rates for some time.

The US economy remains in recession. It was confirmed by yesterday's data, according to which the Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.6%, slightly better than the analysts' forecast of –0.8%. The negative dynamics are due to a drop in the volume of private investment in inventories and consolidated capital and in spending by the federal and local governments. On the other hand, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased to 243K from 245K a week earlier, which led to an adjustment in the total number of citizens receiving payments from the state to 1.415M from 1.434M a week earlier.

The trading instrument moves within the global uptrend, forming the Head and shoulders pattern. Technical indicators maintain a weakening buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range has begun to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming bars above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 137.45, 139.45 | Support levels: 136.15, 132.85

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S&P 500 - investors are confident in the "hawkish" mood of the US Fed

The US stock market is correcting, and its further dynamics will largely depend on today's speech by the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole at 16:00 (GMT+2). Analysts expect the regulator to continue its "hawkish" rhetoric, but the pace of tightening of monetary parameters causes some controversy. The fact is that the national labor market showed positive results this week (the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased to 243K from 245.0K a week earlier), and inflation in July reached 8.5% from 9.1%, which, in turn, may serve as a key factor for reducing the correction step of the indicator the interest rate is only 50 basis points, not 75 basis points, as previously expected.

In the corporate segment, the technology giant Apple on September 7 will hold a presentation of a new line of iPhone smartphones, as well as Apple Watch smart watches, which may return the interest of bidders in the issuer's shares, which has significantly decreased after the publication of negative financial statements.

The index quotes are trading above the resistance line of the descending channel, correcting downwards. Technical indicators hold a buy signal, which gradually weakens: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, holding in the buy zone, forms descending bars.

Support levels: 4110, 3900 | Resistance levels: 4310, 4631

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CADJPY as you see here, the price is going bearish, it is good if you open sell position to use trapping strategy, you can open sell position when the price breaks support area at 105.4 with potential target up to next support 105.1

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The shares of Meta Platforms, which owns the world's largest social network Facebook, are falling around 174.

On the daily chart, a global downtrend continues to form, within which the price moves within a sideways corridor of 155 – 180 near its lower border. On the four-hour chart, there are currently no drivers for the growth of the trading instrument, and if the quotes consolidated below the year's low of 155.8, the asset might continue to decline to 135.2. In case of an upward movement, the nearest resistance is the initial correction of 23.6% Fibonacci around 201.

Technical indicators confirm the likelihood of continuation of the current trend: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

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EURUSD - The head of the US Federal Reserve supported the preservation of the "hawkish" course of monetary policy

The European economy is slowing down amid reports from representatives of PJSC Gazprom about stopping the gas pumping from August 31 to September 2 due to technical work on the turbine of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. Experts doubt that infrastructure repairs will last only a few days, considering the scenario of a complete blocking of Russian energy supplies, which, in turn, will push gas prices to new record levels. Thus, according to data at the close of trading on Friday, a thousand cubic meters on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cost $3,507, a maximum over the past 26 years.

Also, the quotes of the EURUSD pair are under serious pressure from the dynamics of the US dollar, which set another all-time high, exceeding 109.2 in the USD Index. The reason for such strong growth was the reaction of the markets to the statements made by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, during his speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. The official noted the need to adjust the interest rate to achieve the main goal – reducing inflation and acknowledged that restoring price stability will take time and tough actions from the financial authorities. Powell added that the regulator plans to bring the rate to a stable level (2.25–2.5%), at which it will be held for some time, and investors, assuming that this level can be reached this year, have stepped up their activities.

The trading instrument is kept within the global downwards channel, falling towards the support line. 

Resistance levels: 1, 1.0322 | Support levels: 0.988, 0.9660

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AUDUSD - The trading instrument develops a "bearish" momentum

Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported an increase in retail sales index in monthly terms by 1.3% compared to 0.2% last month and experts' forecasts of 0.3%, while the dynamics in annual terms consolidated around 16.5%. Department store sales increased the most, adding 3.8% or 67.7M dollars, while analysts estimate that sales in clothing grew by 3.3%, food by 1.2%, and cafes and restaurants — by 1.8%. The only segment that showed negative dynamics was the sale of household goods, which decreased by 1.1% or 68.8M dollars. Building permit statistics are expected to be published tomorrow, and analysts suggest that the figure will fall by another 2.0% according to the global trend.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting, completing the formation of the head and shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators are preparing for a new reversal and have given a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6927, 0.705 | Support levels: 0.6806, 0.6681

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NZDUSD - The pair is preparing to update the July low

The USD is strengthening after Jerome Powell's speech at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole. In particular, the need was voiced to continue raising interest rates by 1–1.25% during subsequent meetings of the regulator. After that, the value should remain high for some time to reduce inflationary pressure. It was also noted that the American labor market is quite stable, but not balanced, and the national economy is starting to slow down. Nevertheless, the USD is strengthening against other currencies and is likely to continue its upward trend in the future.

In addition, the governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Adrian Orr spoke at the symposium in Jackson Hole and said that the markets are waiting for at least two more interest rate hikes by the New Zealand regulator. In his speech, the official was cautious, mentioning the decline in retail sales in the country, which indicates that high interest rates have a negative impact on economic growth. Thus, the indicator for Q2 decreased by 2.3% after a 0.9% decrease in the previous period, while analysts expected -1.7%.

Given the plans of the US Fed, it can be assumed that the USD will strengthen in the medium and long term, and the NZDUSD pair will update the July minimum, continuing to decline to the area of 0.595.

The long-term trend is downward. Last week, the support level of 0.6200 was broken by the bidders, and now the price is aiming at 0.6055, in case of a breakdown of which the decline will continue with a target at 0.5950.

Within the framework of the mid–term downtrend last week, the bidders broke through the target zone 2 (0.6188 – 0.6174), and now the asset has headed to the area of 0.6048 - 0.6034. The trend boundary is shifting to the levels 0.6255–0.6241. If the price reaches these levels, it is worth considering new short positions with the first target at the minimum of the current week.

Resistance levels: 0.6240, 0.6345 | Support levels: 0.6055, 0.5950