Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Morgan Stanley (MS) Shares Display Strength Ahead of Earnings Release

The stock market is eagerly awaiting the start of the quarterly earnings season. Traditionally, it kicks off with reports from major players in the financial sector, including Morgan Stanley (MS). The bank's earnings report is scheduled for tomorrow, Thursday, before the opening of the main trading session.

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts expect:
→ Earnings per share (EPS) to be $1.62, indicating a 43.4% increase compared to the previous year;
→ Revenue to reach $14.8 billion, reflecting a 14.7% rise year-on-year.

Meanwhile, MS’s share price may also be influenced by internal organisational changes at Morgan Stanley. The bank has created a new division to enhance client relations and appointed a new head of wealth management.

MarketWatch notes that the upcoming earnings season could be the strongest in three years (based on FactSet data), with the financial sector likely to be the largest contributor to profits this season. Furthermore, a technical analysis of Morgan Stanley’s (MS) stock chart suggests that market participants are optimistic.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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European Currencies Correcting After Sharp Decline

At the beginning of the week, the US dollar managed to reach new highs against certain currencies. For instance, the EUR/USD pair hit a recent low of 1.0200, sellers of GBP/USD tested the support at 1.2100, and the USD/JPY pair is stubbornly trying to stay above 158.00.

EUR/USD
The US employment report released last Friday provided significant support to the US dollar. The increase in new jobs at 256K, against a forecast of 164K, and the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, versus the expected 4.2%, suggest that a change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be anticipated in the near future.

The upcoming inauguration of President Donald Trump and the associated threats of new trade wars are putting additional pressure on EUR/USD.

On Tuesday, sellers of the EUR/USD pair managed to break the current year’s low at 1.0220. The price quickly bounced back, forming a reversal pattern, a "hammer." Technical analysis of EUR/USD indicates a potential continuation of the upward correction if buyers manage to hold above 1.0340. However, if the price drops below 1.0230, the recent low could be revisited.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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How to Trade with the On-Neck Pattern

Analysing price movements and identifying trends are crucial aspects of financial markets, and traders often rely on trading indicators and candlestick patterns for informed decision-making. In the realm of trading, the On-Neck pattern may serve as a significant setup for traders. This article delves into the understanding of the On-Neck pattern in day trading and explores its strategic implications.

What Is an On-Neck Pattern?

The On-Neck is a two-candlestick formation that usually appears in a downtrend and signals a trend continuation. It consists of a tall down candle followed by one that gaps down on the open but closes at or near the previous candle’s close. The term "On-Neck" refers to the horizontal line formed by the identical or nearly identical closing prices of the two candlesticks, resembling a neckline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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S&P 500 Index Rises to Psychological Level

The US stock market experienced an upswing following the release of inflation data yesterday. According to ForexFactory:
→ The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations at 2.9%.
→ The monthly Core CPI came in at 0.2%, below analysts' forecast of 0.3%.

Market participants interpreted this as a positive signal, leading to the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) gaining over 1% in the first 30 minutes after the data release.

As reported by Reuters:
→ Concerns about inflation eased, reviving hopes for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, buoyed by a strong start to the earnings season (which we will cover in more detail later);
→ However, the rally may be short-lived, as inflation in the US remains uncomfortably high and could increase further due to aggressive tariff and tax policies under the new Trump administration;
→ Analysts caution that the Federal Reserve's rate is likely to remain unchanged for some time.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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USD/JPY Hits One-Month Low

The USD/JPY pair fell to its lowest level in a month during today’s Asian session, dropping below 155.5 yen per US dollar for the first time since 19th December.

As Reuters reports:
→ The yen’s strengthening was driven by hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, which prompted markets to bet on a potential interest rate hike next week.
→ A significant majority of surveyed economists anticipate the BOJ will raise rates at one of its two meetings this quarter, with most favouring a January hike.

The BOJ’s decision on rates may depend on market stability following Donald Trump’s return to the White House next Monday. His inauguration speech will be closely watched by policymakers worldwide to gauge his likely political direction.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Machine Learning Algorithms for Forex Market Analysis

Machine learning is transforming the currency trading landscape, offering innovative ways to analyse market trends. This article delves into how machine learning algorithms are reshaping forex trading. Understanding these technologies' benefits and challenges provides traders with insights to navigate the currency markets potentially more effectively, harnessing the power of data-driven decision-making.

The Basics of Machine Learning in Forex Trading

Machine learning for forex trading marks a significant shift from traditional analysis methods. At its core, machine learning involves algorithms that learn from and provide signals based on data. Unlike standard trading algorithms, which operate on predefined rules, these algorithms adapt and improve over time with exposure to more data.

Machine learning forex prediction algorithms analyse historical and real-time market data, identifying patterns that are often imperceptible to the human eye. They can process a multitude of technical and fundamental factors simultaneously, offering a more dynamic approach to analysing market trends. 

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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FTSE 100 Index May Reach 8500

As shown on the chart of the UK stock index FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen):
→ It has risen by over 3% in three days;
→ It is near the record high set in May last year and may reach the psychological level of 8500 points.

Bullish sentiment has been supported by yesterday's news of GDP recovery – according to media reports, the economy grew by 0.1% in November 2024 (compared to a previous decline of 0.1%), primarily driven by the dominant services sector.

Technical analysis of the FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) chart shows that since mid-2024, the index has predominantly fluctuated within the 8000–8400 range, only briefly moving beyond it, which was accompanied by spikes in the RSI indicator.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.