Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[Resolve]

AUD/CAD Analysis: Atypical Volume Casts Doubt on Triangle Breakout

The key catalyst for the Australian dollar remains the July inflation data released on 26 August. The figure came in at 3.5% year-on-year, versus expectations of 3.2%, while the Trimmed Mean increased by 0.5% month-on-month, compared with a forecast of 0.3%. The following day, 27 August, NAB revised its forecast for the RBA’s next policy decision. The bank now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, taking the rate to 4.6%, with the risk of another increase in November.

For the Canadian dollar, the key factor was the Bank of Canada’s decision. On 2 September, the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting, highlighting economic uncertainty stemming from US tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory trade measures.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[Resolve]

USD/JPY: BoJ Momentum Meets a Fed Still Undecided

USD/JPY is caught in a genuine crossfire this week, and Thursday's move said it all: the yen surged nearly 2% in a single session, touching a one-month high near 155.28, as traders simultaneously priced in higher odds of a Bank of Japan hike and stayed alert to fresh intervention risk following July's joint US-Japan operation. BOJ board member Hajime Takata has even floated the possibility of outsized or back-to-back hikes to contain inflation, while Governor Ueda's comments this week reinforced expectations of a move as early as this month.

The dollar side offers no clean counter-narrative either. August's jobs report reshaped the Fed debate almost overnight, with payrolls coming in well above the 55,000 consensus, briefly reviving September hike bets that had cooled sharply after Fed Governor Waller signalled comfort with holding rates if inflation keeps easing. Markets are now split roughly 50–60% on a September move, leaving Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance, alongside the CPI and PPI prints later this week, as the real tie-breakers.

The result: a yen gaining genuine independent strength from hawkish BOJ signals, against a dollar whose own rate path remains stuck between conflicting data, leaving USD/JPY's next move hostage to whichever central bank commits first.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.