Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[Resolve]

AUD/CAD Analysis: Gap Pushes Price Beyond the Broadening Triangle

On 19 August, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser adopted a more hawkish tone, warning that another rate increase could become necessary if the inflation risks highlighted by the central bank — including the conflict in the Middle East, a surge in demand from the AI sector and weak productivity — begin to materialise.

His comments came one week after the RBA decided on 11 August to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting.

For the Canadian dollar, oil prices remain a more important driver. Crude has continued to rise this week amid heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over potential supply disruptions. Higher oil prices can traditionally support the Canadian dollar given the country's significant commodity exports.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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EUR/USD Analysis: Is the Dollar Rally Really Over?

EUR/USD has regained ground in recent sessions, with the pair trading near 1.17 as broad-based weakness in the US dollar continues to dominate the foreign-exchange market. The main driver remains the changing monetary-policy outlook, with investors focused on whether the Federal Reserve can maintain a restrictive stance while the US economy shows signs of slowing.

The dollar faces a key test this week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to deliver his first speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Persistent inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields could encourage a hawkish tone, particularly if Warsh signals that rate cuts in September are far from guaranteed. Conversely, weaker US growth or softer inflation data would reinforce expectations of easier monetary policy and could extend the dollar's decline.

In Europe, euro-area inflation rose to 2.9% in July, keeping price pressures above the ECB's 2% target. The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since June, but higher energy prices and renewed inflation risks could limit the scope for further easing.

With EUR/USD trading near multi-month highs, the Jackson Hole symposium and upcoming US PCE inflation data could determine whether the euro can extend its advance or whether a hawkish Fed response triggers a renewed recovery in the dollar.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Edited Monday at 11:17 AM by Resolve

[Resolve]

WTI Analysis: Attempted Uptrend Breakout Without Momentum Confirmation

WTI crude fell more than 2% on Monday, 24 August, as market participants took profits amid expectations that the US could announce a new round of sanctions against Iran. Additional pressure came from a warning by the Iranian authority responsible for the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, which said vessels violating transit rules could face fines or detention.

At the same time, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its 11 August forecast, expects the average Brent price to remain around $85 per barrel in the third quarter. Persistently low commercial crude inventories in the US could also help limit the downside and prevent a deeper decline.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Nvidia Earnings: Beating Isn't Enough — The Chart Wants More

All eyes turn to Wednesday, when Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 2027 earnings in what may be the single most consequential release of the quarter for the entire tech sector. Wall Street expects revenue of between $93–95 billion, implying year-over-year growth of as much as 67–100%, driven largely by demand for the company's Blackwell architecture and the early ramp-up of its next-generation Vera Rubin chips. With Nvidia commanding an estimated 80–81% share of the AI accelerator market, the report functions less like a single-company event and more like a health check for the entire AI infrastructure trade, historically moving shares of AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell in sympathy.

The stakes are amplified by timing: earnings land squarely alongside the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks could reshape rate expectations just as investors digest Nvidia's guidance. That combination matters because Nvidia's premium valuation, trading well above the broader semiconductor sector on a forward basis, leaves the stock unusually sensitive to shifts in the discount rate.

With shares up nearly 18% year-to-date but price targets still implying meaningful upside, the market has already priced in near-perfection. The real question isn't whether Nvidia beats, but whether beating is enough.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Gold Price Forecasts for 2026–2030: Analytical Outlook

Gold continues to attract attention as investors search for a so-called safe haven in an increasingly uncertain global environment. Rising geopolitical tensions, currency volatility, central bank reserve shifts, and questions about long-term economic resilience have all pushed gold back into focus.

After record highs in 2025 and a peak above $5,500 in January 2026, prices corrected through the first half of the year, leaving many asking what comes next. The gold price forecast for 2027 draws particular attention: it is near enough to model with current data, yet far enough out for those assumptions to diverge widely.

Analysts reach different conclusions because they rely on different assumptions about interest rates, central bank demand, geopolitical developments, and mine supply. This article breaks down the factors shaping gold’s trajectory and examines analytical gold price forecasts for 2026 to 2030.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[Resolve]

Dollar Recovery Loses Momentum: USD/CAD and USD/CHF Resume Their Declines

The US dollar has resumed its decline following a corrective recovery, as the support behind the currency proved insufficient to sustain the rebound. Selling pressure increased as long-term US Treasury yields fell amid reports that the US Treasury was prepared to expand its bond-buyback operations. Larger buybacks support the government bond market and can contribute to lower yields, reducing the dollar's interest-rate advantage and limiting its recovery.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. So far, however, this factor has not been strong enough to generate a sustained appreciation in the currency.

Today, markets will focus on a fresh batch of US economic data. Revised second-quarter GDP figures, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, personal income and spending data, and durable goods orders are all due to be released.

According to forecasts, US GDP growth could be revised down from 2.1% to 1.5%, while the core PCE price index is expected to show annual growth of 3.3% and a monthly increase of 0.2%. A combination of slower economic growth and persistent inflationary pressure could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, leaving policymakers to balance the risk of economic weakness against the need to keep inflation under control.

Markets will also be watching comments from Federal Reserve officials for clues about how policymakers are assessing current inflation risks and signs of an economic slowdown.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[Resolve]

EUR/AUD: A Hawkish Euro Meets a Stubborn Downtrend

The euro is riding genuine hawkish momentum right now. It's holding above $1.165 against the dollar, its strongest level since mid-May, with markets fully pricing in an ECB hike in September following June's initial tightening move. That conviction is backed by real data: German Q2 GDP was revised up to 0.3% growth, and August business activity showed clear improvement, especially in German manufacturing. Elevated energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict remain the ECB's main concern, keeping the door open to more than 40 bp of additional tightening priced in for this year alone.

The Aussie, meanwhile, is stuck in a genuinely tricky spot. The RBA delivered a hawkish hold on August 11, with Governor Bullock confirming the bank would "raise rates again if needed", but that resolve hasn't translated into currency strength. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reinforced the hawkish tone this week, flagging the Middle East conflict, the AI investment boom, and weak productivity as key upside inflation risks, yet the AUD has still underperformed most major peers, caught between domestic hawkishness and a broader risk backdrop it can't fully control.

The result: an ECB gaining real traction on its hawkish pivot, against an RBA talking tough but struggling to make it stick.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.