Resolve Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 (edited) EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Gaining Bullish Momentum EUR/USD started a strong increase and it surged above the 1.2000 resistance. EUR/JPY is also gaining momentum and it is trading well above the 125.00 resistance. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY The Euro started a strong increase above the 1.1950 and 1.2000 resistance levels. There was a break above a key connecting resistance trend line at 1.2030 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. EUR/JPY followed a similar pattern and broke the main 125.00 resistance. There was a break above a major rising channel with resistance near 125.30 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis This week, the Euro formed a strong support zone above the 1.1920 and 1.1950 levels against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a strong increase and it broke the main 1.2000 resistance level. The pair even gained strength above 1.2020 and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there was a break above a key connecting resistance trend line at 1.2030 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair even surpassed the 1.2050 resistance and traded as high as 1.2079 recently on FXOpen. It seems like the pair might continue to move higher above the 1.2080 level. The next key resistance is near the 1.2120 level, above which the pair could test 1.2150. If there is a downside correction, an initial support could be 1.2050 or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 1.1960 swing low to 1.2079 high. The next major support is near the 1.2030 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2020 support or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 1.1960 swing low to 1.2079 high. EUR/JPY Technical Analysis The Euro also followed a similar path above 124.00 against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair broke the main 125.00 resistance level to move into a positive zone. There was also a close above the 125.20 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there was a break above a major rising channel with resistance near 125.30 on the hourly chart. The pair gained strength above the 125.50 level and it even broke the 126.00 level. A high is formed near 126.14 and the pair is currently consolidating gains. An initial support is near the 125.85 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 124.86 swing low to 126.14 high. The next major support is near the 125.65 level (a multi-touch zone). Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 125.50 support. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 124.86 swing low to 126.14 high. The main uptrend support seems to be forming near the 125.00 level since it is also close to the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the pair could accelerate higher if it clears the 126.15 and 126.20 levels. The next resistance could be near the 126.80 level. Any more upsides might lead the EUR/JPY higher further higher above the 127.00 level. In the stated case, the bulls may possibly aim a larger increase towards the 128.50 and 129.20 resistance levels in the coming days. FXOpen Blog Edited June 6 by Resolve 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 LTC and EOS – Final Push To The Upside Coming? LTC/USD From last Thursday, November 26th when the price of Litecoin was sitting at the $65 level, we have seen an increase of 42.64% measured to its highest point at $92.664 made on Tuesday. Since then the price has been moving sideways, spiking to the downside at first but then making a series of lower highs. Currently, it is being traded $90 and is starting to move to the upside again. On the hourly chart, you can see that the price formed a symmetrical triangle from Tuesday’s high around the significant horizontal level at $86.486. Now we are seeing an attempt for a breakout to the upside after the price reached its apex. It is currently making a higher high compared to the last one and has started going above the territory of the triangle, moving above its resistance level. A breakout looks like developing but can still end as a fakeout on the hourly time-frame. If we see further upside movement with the hourly candle closing above the prior local high the breakout would be validated and would indicate further price growth. This rise would be the uptrend continuation from last Thursday and would be the ending wave from the five-wave impulse that is set to push the price above its higher degree high made on the 24th of November after which a significant corrective descending move was made. EOS/USD The price of EOS has also been increasing from last Thursday, coming from $2.77 area to $3.315 which was an increase of 19.26%, but has since then fallen to $3 and is currently being traded at $3.1. On the hourly chart, we can see that the price has started moving the to upside again after falling back to the levels of the 1st wave’s ending point after a previous higher degree descending move. This is why there is still a possibility that the price is developing its 5th wave from the impulsive five-wave move to the upside. If that is the case then we could see it increasing past its highest point in December made last Thursday when it found resistance at the 0.786 Fib level. The price is likely to continue increasing from here but it could very well be another corrective move before the further decline is made so we are yet to see if it manages to break the Fib level resistance and continues for a higher high. Significant horizontal resistance is sitting around $3.3 area so it might end as a truncation before its completion. FXOpen Blog 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signaling Downside Correction AUD/USD gained momentum above the 0.7400 level before it faced sellers near 0.7445. NZD/USD is also correcting gains and it could test the 0.7020 support. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD The Aussie Dollar followed a bullish path above the 0.7350 and 0.7400 resistance levels against the US Dollar. There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 0.7385 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. NZD/USD surged above 0.6950 and 0.7000, and even traded close to 0.7120. A major ascending channel is forming with support near 0.7055 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. AUD/USD Technical Analysis In the past few days, the Aussie Dollar saw a steady increase above the 0.7320 pivot against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even broke the 0.7400 resistance level to move into a positive zone. During the increase, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 0.7385 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The upward move gained pace above 0.7400 and the pair settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded to a new monthly high at 0.7449 and recently started a downside correction. There was a break below the 0.7430 level. It is testing a key support zone near 0.7425, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7351 swing low to 0.7449 high. If there are more losses and a downside break below 0.7425, the pair could extend losses towards the 0.7400 support. The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near the 0.7405 level to act as a support. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7351 swing low to 0.7449 high is at 0.7400. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 0.7350 support. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7440 level. The first major resistance is near the 0.7450 level, above which AUD/USD could accelerate higher towards the 0.7500 level. NZD/USD Technical Analysis In the past few days, there was a major increase in the New Zealand Dollar above the 0.6950 resistance level against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair even surged above the 0.7000 resistance zone. The pair climbed above the 0.7050 level and spiked above the 0.7100 level. A high is formed near 0.7104 and it is currently correcting lower. There was a break below the 0.7080 support level, and the pair broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7031 swing low to 0.7104 high. The pair is now trading below the 0.7070 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is testing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7031 swing low to 0.7104 high. There is also a major ascending channel is forming with support near 0.7055 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. If there is a downside break below the channel support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7040 and 0.7020 support levels. Conversely, the pair could stay above the channel support and start a fresh increase above 0.7065. The first major resistance is near the 0.7080 level, above which the pair could make another attempt to settle above the 0.7100 level. FXOpen Blog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Remains Supported GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.3400 resistance zone. GBP/JPY traded as high as 140.70 before starting a major downside correction. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY The British Pound climbed higher towards the 1.3540 level before correcting lower. There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near 1.3430 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. GBP/JPY traded close to the 141.80 resistance level before starting a downside correction. There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 139.70 on the hourly chart. GBP/USD Technical Analysis This past week, the British Pound saw a decent increase above the 1.3400 resistance area against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3480 resistance to move further into a positive zone. Finally, there was a break above the 1.3500 level and the pair traded as high as 1.3539 on FXOpen. Recently, the pair started a downside correction and traded below the 1.3500 level. There was a break below the 1.3480 and 1.3450 support levels. There was also a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near 1.3430 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair traded close to the 1.3400 level and it is currently correcting higher. It is facing resistance near the broken trend line, 1.3440, and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3539 high to 1.3408 low is also near the 1.3440 area. If there is an upside break above the 1.3440 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, the pair could start a fresh increase. The next major resistance is near the 1.3475 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3539 high to 1.3408 low is also near the 1.3473 level. Any more upsides could lead the pair above 1.3500. Conversely, the pair could decline further below 1.3408. The next major support is near the 1.3400 and 1.3385 levels. A close below the 1.3385 level might call for a larger decline towards the 1.3320 level in the near term. GBP/JPY Technical Analysis The British Pound also climbed higher above the 140.00 resistance against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair even climbed above the 140.50 level, but it failed to continue higher above 140.75. A swing high was formed near 140.70 before the pair started a downside correction. There was a steady decline below the 140.50 and 140.20 levels. The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 139.47 swing low to 140.70 high. There was also a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 139.70 on the hourly chart. The pair is now trading below the 139.80 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is now approaching the 139.47 swing low. The next major support is near the 139.20 level. It is close to the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 139.47 swing low to 140.70 high. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 139.00 support zone. On the upside, the recent breakdown zone near the 140.00 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average might act as a hurdle. The next major resistance is near the 140.25 level, above which the pair could revisit the 140.70 high. FXOpen Blog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 All Eyes on Euro and the ECB This Week Following the weak NFP report in the United States last Friday, the market moves to the key event of the week ahead – the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. The central bank already pre-committed to act in December, and most of the impact may already be priced in the market. However, it can still surprise the market, especially if we consider the strong Euro across the board. Strong Euro Remains a Headache for the ECB The EURUSD exchange rate reached 1.2175 ahead of the NFP report last Friday. By the time that it first reached 1.20 in the summer, the ECB verbally intervened, suggesting that the exchange rate level is too high. From that moment on, the EURUSD consolidated below 1.20, but the level eventually gave way. At this point, the Euro rallies across the FX dashboard. Not only the EURUSD rate is higher, but the EURJPY or EURGBP too. This makes this week’s ECB decision even more interesting, as if it is to surprise markets, it may do so by delivering an ultra-dovish statement. What Will the ECB Do? The ECB already hinted that it would not lower the interest rate on the deposit facility more into the negative territory. It also vowed to ease more the financial conditions since most European economies are in some kind of lockdown mode. While the decisions may already be priced in, the ECB may still surprise markets. One way of doing so is to extend the duration of policy support much more into the future than the market expects. The ECB might also extend the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by June 2022. While the extension is expected by the market participants, the focus will be on the actual size of the package – the higher the number, the stronger the impact on the Euro. Finally, the ECB will likely use this press conference to deliver its concerns about the high exchange rate. If the central bank manages to surprise the markets, then the EURUSD should ease to 1.20 and below. On the other hand, any statement interpreted as less dovish should trigger a further rally in the EURUSD, especially considering that next week the Fed in the United States is expected to ease the policy too. All in all, expect a lot of volatility on the Euro pairs this week, considering the ECB and the ongoing Brexit negotiations. Finally, the end of the year flows should have an impact on the exchange rate too. FXOpen Blog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 BTC and XRP – Consolidation Seen But A Breakout Likely Started BTC/USD The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways since the 1st of December when it reached a new all-time high, spiking above the $19,677 level. Since then we have seen the formation of a descending triangle with the price now going back to its support level and has been testing it for support once again. Currently, it is being traded at around $18,819. On the hourly chart, you can see that the price is finding support on the current interaction and has closed the hourly candle above it with now forming a green one. This could be an early indication that the price found support there and is now going to make a bounce. The triangle we have seen form could be the consolidative 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse to the upside that started on the 26th of November. In that case, after this sideways movement ends and it could have ended now on another support validation we are to see a breakout to the upside and an uptrend continuation. The price has already attempted a breakout but has been rejected slightly above the $19,380 level which is why we have seen a decrease. But if this a consolidation below the all-time high a breakout above the upper horizontal level would be seen for another higher high at around $21,230 area. XRP/USD From the 1st of December, the price of Ripple has decreased by around 20%, measured to its lowest point on the 5th, when it came down to $0.543 but started increasing from there again and came up to $0.625 on yesterday’s open. Now it is being traded slightly lower as another decrease was made but the price has made a higher low and a breakout from the higher degree symmetrical triangle on its upper side. As you can see by looking at the hourly chart, the price made a breakout and a pullback to the support level of the symmetrical triangle where is now testing it for support. Like in the case of Bitcoin we could be seeing an early indication that the support is present at those levels as the hourly candle managed to close above it and now a green candle has started forming. If this was the 2nd wave out of the next five-wave impulse after the WXY correction, then the price is now headed towards a higher high compared to the one made on the 24th of November. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 EUR/USD Is Showing Bullish Signs, USD/JPY Could Resume Decline EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2000 and 1.2080 resistance levels. USD/JPY is currently recovering, but it might decline again if it fails to clear 104.30. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY The Euro started a strong upward move above the 1.2000 and 1.2100 levels. There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. USD/JPY is correcting higher and trading above the 104.00 support level. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 104.10 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis This past week, the Euro started a strong upward move above the 1.2000 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke many hurdles near 1.2050 and 1.2080 to move into a positive zone. The pair even broke the 1.2150 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.2177 on FXOpen before starting a downside correction. There was a break below the 1.2100 level, but the pair remained well bid near the 1.2080 zone. The recent low was formed near 1.2095 and the pair is currently rising. There was a break above the 1.2110 resistance levels. The pair also climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2166 high to 1.2095 low. There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair is currently attempting upside above 1.2120. The next key resistance is near the 1.2130 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2166 high to 1.2095 low. A clear break above 1.2125 and 1.2130 could open the doors for more gains. The next major resistance is near the 1.2170 and 1.2180 levels. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline below the 1.2100 support. The main support is near the 1.2080 zone, below which the EUR/USD pair could slide towards the 1.2025 and 1.2000 support levels in the near term. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar faced a strong resistance near the 104.30 and it started a fresh decline against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair broke the 104.00 support level, but dips were limited. A low was formed near 103.92 and the pair started a decent recovery wave. There was a break above the 104.05 and 104.10 levels. The pair climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 104.31 high to 103.92 low. The pair is now trading above the 104.10 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. An initial resistance is near the 104.16 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 104.31 high to 103.92 low. The first major resistance is near the 104.30 level. A clear break above the 104.30 zone is needed to start a steady rise towards the 104.55 and 104.80 levels. On the downside, the 104.00 level is a strong support. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near 104.10 on the hourly chart. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, the pair could dive towards the 103.80 level. Any further losses may lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 103.50 support zone. The next major support is near the 103.00 level. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 LTC and EOS – Descending Channel Ending Soon LTC/USD The price of Litecoin has been decreasing since the start of the month when it came up to $93. Measured to its lowest point of the month made yesterday at $74.45 we have seen a decrease of 20%. The price is currently being traded around the levels of yesterday’s low, but it appears that it found support there and is now looking to start increasing again. On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Litecoin formed a descending channel from the start of the month with yesterday’s low being a retest of its support level. Now as the price has managed to stay on the same levels as on its lowest yesterday and didn’t make a lower one, before finding some support we could be seeing the start of the upside move that is to propel the price at least to the channels resistance level. On Tuesday we have seen a breakout below the significant $78.442 horizontal support level, today the price tested it for resistance and found it, which is why we have seen another descending move. This is why we could still see lower lows before the ending of the descending channel formation in which case the price would most likely go to the 1.618 Fib level. EOS/USD Since the start of the month, the price of EOS has decreased by 18.8%, coming from its high at $3.334 on December 1st to $2.70 on its yesterday’s low. Currently, the price is being traded at $2.7567 and is moving slowly to the downside. Looking at the hourly chart, we can see a similar pattern like in the case of Litecoin as a descending channel was formed. Inside the channel, we have seen a five-wave structure developing which could be a lower degree ABCDE or an impulse five-wave but like an ending diagonal. Since the structure appears near completion the current descending move could be the 2nd wave out of the next five-wave move to the upside that is set to push the price for a breakout to the upside. If that is the case then the price can’t go below the level of yesterday’s low, which is why the $2.71 area serves as a pivot point. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 11, 2020 Author Share Posted December 11, 2020 Gold Price Showing Bearish Signs While Oil Price Outperforms Gold price failed to surpass the $1,875 resistance and started a fresh decline. Conversely, crude oil price traded to new multi-month high close to $48.00 level. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Gold price started a fresh decline below the $1,870 and $1,850 levels against the US Dollar. There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,840 on the hourly chart of gold. Crude oil price surged above the $46.75 resistance and traded as high as $47.82. There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near $46.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,800 support zone against the US Dollar. The price broke the $1,840 and $1,850 resistance levels to gain bullish momentum. However, the price struggled to clear the $1,875 resistance. A high was formed near $1,875 on FXOpen and the price started a fresh decline. There was a clear break below the $1,855 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even broke the $1,840 level and traded close to $1,825. The price is currently consolidating above $1,825. The recent swing high was near $1,849 before the price declined to $1,829. It is currently trading above the $1,832 level. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,849 swing high to $1,829 low. On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $1,840 level. Moreover, there is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,840 on the hourly chart of gold. The triangle resistance is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,849 swing high to $1,829 low. A successful close above the triangle resistance, $1,840, and the 50 hourly simple moving average could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions. The next major resistance is near the $1,850 level. Conversely, the price could continue to move down below the $1,830 and $1,828 levels. The next major support is near $1,810, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline towards $1,780. Any further losses could lead the price towards the $1,750 support zone. Oil Price Technical Analysis Crude oil price remained well bid above the $44.00 and $45.00 levels against the US Dollar. The price broke many hurdles near $45.50 to move further into a positive zone. The bulls remained in action and there was a clear break above the $46.75 resistance. During the rise, there was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near $46.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. The price even broke the $47.20 resistance and settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded close to the $47.85 level and a high is formed near $47.82. Recently, there was a downside correction below the $47.50 level. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $45.06 swing low to $47.82 high. On the downside, the previous resistance near $46.75 is acting as a strong support. The next major support is near the $46.50 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $45.06 swing low to $47.82 high. On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $47.25 level. A close above $47.25 might set the pace for a fresh leg higher towards the $48.00 level. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: Upsides Could Be Capped in British Pound GBP/USD opened with a gap up above the 1.3250 level. EUR/GBP declined below the 0.9145 support, but it could find a strong support near 0.9080. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP The British Pound opened with a gap higher and trading above the 1.3300 level. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3395 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. EUR/GBP opened with a gap lower and traded below the key 0.9145 support zone. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.9135 on the hourly chart. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.3480 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3280 support level and even spiked below the 1.3150 support. The pair traded as low as 1.3134 on FXOpen before starting an upside correction. There was a clear break above the 1.3180 and 1.3200 resistance levels. More importantly, the pair opened with a gap higher and trading above the 1.3300 level. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3477 high to 1.3134 low. It is now trading well above the 1.3300 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3345 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3477 high to 1.3134 low. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3395 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. As long as the pair is below the trend line resistance, there is a risk of a fresh decline. In the stated case, the pair could attempt to fill the open gap and test the 1.3250 support zone in the near term. Conversely, the pair could continue to move higher above the 1.3345 and 1.3400 resistance levels. The next major resistance for the bulls could ne 1.3480 in the near term. EUR/GBP Technical Analysis The Euro remained in a positive zone and climbed above the 0.9150 level this past week against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair even surpassed the 0.9200 resistance level. It traded as high as 0.9229 before starting a downside correction. It broke the 0.9200 and 0.9180 support levels. More importantly, the pair opened with a gap lower and traded below the key 0.9145 support zone, plus the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8984 swing low to 0.9229 high. There was also a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.9135 on the hourly chart. The pair tested the main 0.9080 support zone, and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8984 swing low to 0.9229 high. It is currently correcting higher, but the 0.9120 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average are acting as hurdles for the bulls. If it clears the 0.9120 zone, the bulls could attempt close to the gap in the coming sessions. Conversely, the pair could continue to move down. The first major support on the downside is at 0.9080, below which EUR/GBP might revisit the 0.9000 zone. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 ECB Disappointed Markets – Why? Last week’s main event, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, disappointed the market. The central bank pre-committed to ease the financial conditions already from October, but the markets remained with the feeling that the ECB did not do enough. Yes, the central bank further eased the policy – it extended the Quantitative Easing (QE) program and offered better terms on its TLTROs. However, it was less than the market expected. Moreover, the market pushed the EURUSD exchange rate above the 1.20 level a week before the ECB, and the central bank did not give any clue that it is bothered by the move. What Was Priced In? The market expected the PEPP program, which basically is the QE program during the pandemic, to be extended by June 2022. Instead, the ECB extended it only by March 2022. The three months between the two dates when the ECB will not buy bonds represent a tightening rather than easing. As such, the market took the message as hawkish rather than dovish. Moreover, the new TLTRO conditions for commercial banks to get access to the funds are tougher. In other words, few commercial banks will be able to meet the ECB’s terms so that they will get the funds needed. As a result, the ECB managed to deliver another hawkish message during a dovish statement. Finally, the central bank suggested that it expects inflation to reach 1.2% in 2023, using the “core” approach, the one that does not consider energy prices. But that is well below the 2% threshold established by its mandate and may suggest that the ECB has a problem bringing inflation below but close to the target. How About the EURUSD? The EURUSD and a strong Euro represent such a problem. It is economics 101 that a stronger currency weighs on inflation. Thus, the ECB would have an easier task of reaching its inflation-targeting mandate if the Euro will not be that strong. In particular, the EURUSD is an ongoing concern for the ECB. However, by only delivering more easing measures wrapped in hawkish statements, the ECB does nothing but fueling a stronger EUR. As such, we should not be surprised by the fact that the EURUSD rate at the 2020 highs two days after the ECB press conference ended. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 BTC encounters resistance while XRP finds support BTC/USD The price of Bitcoin has been increasing from last Friday when it was sitting at $17,570 at its lowest point and came up by around 11.4% measured to its highest point today at $19,570. Now the price is being traded at $19,316 as it fell from today’s high and is now making a recovery. On the hourly chart, you can see that this is a struggle for the price to keep up its bullish momentum above the lower horizontal level at $19,191 which represents the daily candle close from the 2017 all-time high. Since the start of the month, we have seen the price in a decline, forming a descending channel from the 1st of December. Last Friday the price found support on the 0.618 Fib level and started increasing again, breaking out from this descending formation and coming above the significant lower horizontal level. Now as the price is getting close to the vicinity of the high made on December 1st it has started moving sideways which indicates that resistance has been found. If this is the uptrend continuation after the descending channel was a higher degree retracement, the price is now headed towards is higher high, effectively making a new all-time high. But first, it needs to break this resistance zone in between the two horizontal resistance levels, so we are yet to see if the price manages to do so. If the price gets rejected once more at this range we could see a lower low compared to the one made last Friday which would mean that the corrective move from the 26th of November hasn’t developed fully, but if it manages to surpass the $19,677 level it would indicate that is headed toward the $21,000 mark. XRP/USD The price of Ripple has been on a decline since the start of the month, coming down from $0.68 at its highest to $0.47656 at its lowest point today, which is a decrease of around 30%. Currently the price is being traded at $0.4839 but is still in a downward trajectory. Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the price has formed a significant corrective pattern from the 24th of November when it spiked to $0.79. First, we have seen a three-wave descending move with strong momentum, followed by a three-wave upward ABC a bit less steep, and after that a five-wave move to the downside which was developed slowly and wasn’t impulsively developed. These movements are constituting a higher degree WXY correction, which if we are now seeing the E from the five-wave move ABCDE correction is coming to a completion. There is still a bit more room to go to the downside, to the interrupted support level and the $0.46 low made on the 26th of November before the correction ends, but after it does it would be expected that the price of Ripple continue moving to the upside again in an impulsive manner and potentially surpass its November’s high. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 16, 2020 Author Share Posted December 16, 2020 EUR/USD Approaching Key Resistance, USD/CHF Remains At Risk EUR/USD is trading in a positive zone above 1.2100, but it is facing hurdles near 1.2170. USD/CHF is struggling to hold the 0.8850 support and it could decline heavily. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.2050 and 1.2100 resistance levels against the US Dollar. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2140 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. USD/CHF remains in a bearish zone below the 0.8950 and 0.8920 resistance levels. There are two major bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 0.0.8870 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis In the past few days, the Euro remained in a positive zone above the 1.2050 support zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace above the 1.2100 resistance to move into a positive zone. The upward move was such that the pair broke the 1.2120 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair seems to be facing a strong resistance near the 1.2165 and 1.2170 levels. The recent high was formed near 1.2168 on FXOpen before there was a downside correction. There was a break below the 1.2155 level, and the pair traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2121 low to 1.2168 high. The decline found support near the 1.2145 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2121 low to 1.2168 high is also acting as a support. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2140 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. On the upside, the pair could gain bullish momentum once it clears the 1.2165 and 1.2170 resistance levels. Conversely, there is a risk of a downside break below the trend line and 1.2145. The next major support is near the 1.2120 level. Any more losses could spark a major decline below the 1.2100 support zone in the coming sessions. USD/CHF Technical Analysis The US Dollar started a major decline below the 0.8950 support zone against the Swiss franc. The USD/CHF pair even settled below the 0.8900 level to move into a bearish zone. The decline gained pace below the 0.8880 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair is now consolidating above the 0.8850 support level, with a bearish angle. The recent low was formed near 0.8850 before the pair corrected above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.8878 high to 0.8850 low. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 0.8865 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.8878 high to 0.8850 low is also near 0.8865. More importantly, there are two major bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 0.0.8870 on the hourly chart. The pair must climb above 0.8865 and 0.8870 to increase the chances of a decent recovery. The next major resistance is near the 0.9000 and 0.9005 levels. Conversely, a clear break below the 0.8850 support may perhaps open the doors for a larger decline. The next major support is near the 0.8820 level, below which the pair could test 0.8800. Any further losses could lead USD/CHF towards the 0.8750 support level in the near term. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 17, 2020 Author Share Posted December 17, 2020 LTC and EOS – Consolidation Expected Before Further Upside LTC/USD The price of Litecoin has been increasing since the start of the week and from Monday’s low at $79.215 we have seen a rise of 29.75% measured to its highest point today at $102.781. Currently, the price is being traded slightly lower as a minor pullback was made and is sitting just below the $100 mark. On the hourly chart, you can see that Monday’s low was a corrective move made after the interaction with the $84 horizontal level which was the end of the first impulse wave out of a five-wave move that started on the 11th. The second wave established support on the $78.44 level from which we have seen a parabolic rise with the price breaking significant resistance with a strong bullish moment. As this increase was the 3rd wave which appears completed as it can be sub-divided in lower degree five-wave count, we are now likely to see a pullback to around $92 where the prior local resistance level might get tested for support. But after the pullback ends further upside movement would be expected and a higher high compared to today’s one. This expected increase would be the 5th wave that is set to push the price for a higher high and potentially to the $109.35 where the next significant horizontal resistance level is. EOS/USD From Monday’s low at $2.8 the price has increased by 13.46% as it came up to $3.182 at its highest point today. It is still in an upward trajectory and is showing strong bullish momentum. Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a breakout above the $2.9 resistance zone with a significant rise made in one hour and continued moving to the upside, further increasing inside the upper range. Like in the case of Litecoin, this increase seen from Monday is the 3rd wave out of the next five-wave impulse to the upside. Today we have seen a spike to the downside but shortly after the price continued increasing from which we can see that an attempt for the support to be established has successfully done. Now we are likely to see the 3rd wave ending its development which is why shortly a corrective 4th wave would start. This would only be a minor consolidation before further upside movement as the 5t wave would follow to develop but it is still uncertain where the 3rd wave could end. Considering the vicinity of the $3.27 horizontal level we might see interaction with it before the end of the current inrease. But in either way the price of EOS would be expected to surpass it before the completion of the entire five-wave rise. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 AUD/USD and NZD/USD Set New Multi-Month Highs, Dips Likely Limited AUD/USD extended its rise above 0.7500 and traded to a new multi-month high above 0.7600. NZD/USD also followed a similar path and climbed towards the 0.7200 zone. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD The Aussie Dollar gained pace above the 0.7500 and 0.7550 resistance levels against the US Dollar. There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.7620 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. NZD/USD climbed higher nicely and surpassed the 0.7150 resistance level. A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7100 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. AUD/USD Technical Analysis In the past few weeks, the Aussie Dollar followed a bullish path after a proper close above 0.7350 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even broke the 0.7500 resistance level to move into a positive zone. The upward move gained pace above the 0.7550r resistance and the pair settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even spiked above the 0.7600 level and it traded to a new multi-month high at 0.7639. Recently, there was a minor downside correction below the 0.7620 level. The pair traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7538 swing low to 0.7639 high. The pair is now testing the 0.7600 support level. There is also a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.7620 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The triangle support is near the 0.7600 zone and acting as a strong support. The next major support is near the 0.7590 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7538 swing low to 0.7639 high is also near the 0.7590 level to provide support. If there are more losses and a downside break below 0.7575-0.7580, the pair could extend losses towards the 0.7550 support. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7620 resistance zone. The first major resistance is near the 0.7640 level, above which AUD/USD could accelerate higher towards the 0.7680 level. NZD/USD Technical Analysis The New Zealand Dollar also followed a bullish path above the 0.7000 pivot level against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair even surged above the 0.7100 resistance zone. The pair climbed above the 0.7150 level and settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded to a new multi-month high at 0.7170 before starting a downside correction. There was a break below the 0.7150 level. The pair even broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7053 swing low to 0.7170 high. The pair is now approaching the key 0.7120 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7100 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7053 swing low to 0.7170 high. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7080 and 0.7050 support levels. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7150 and 0.7160 resistance levels. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 GBP/USD Corrects Lower, USD/CAD Extending Gains GBP/USD started a fresh decline after testing the 1.3625 zone. USD/CAD is rising and it is showing a lot of positive signs above the 1.2800 level. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD The British Pound started a fresh downside correction from the 1.3624 high. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3530 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. USD/CAD started a strong increase from the 1.2700 support zone and climbed above 1.2800. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2740 on the hourly chart. GBP/USD Technical Analysis This past week, the British Pound gained momentum above the 1.3500 resistance level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3550 and 1.3560 resistance levels to move into a positive zone. The pair even broke the 1.3600 resistance and traded as high as 1.3624 on FXOpen. This week, it opened with a gap lower and traded below the 1.3520 support zone. There was a close below the 1.3500 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3530 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair even traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3134 swing low to 1.3624 high. An immediate support is near the 1.3320 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3134 swing low to 1.3624 high. The next major support is near the 1.3280 level. If there are more downsides, the pair could dive towards the 1.3200 support zone in the near term. On the upside, an initial resistance level is near the 1.3400 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 1.3500 zone and 50 hourly simple moving average. A close above 1.3500 could open the doors for a push towards the 1.3624 high. USD/CAD Technical Analysis The US Dollar formed a strong support base near 1.2700 and started a fresh increase against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair broke many important hurdles near 1.2750 to move into a positive zone. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2740 on the hourly chart. The pair settled nicely above the 1.2800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It even spiked above 1.2850 and traded as high as 1.2854. It is currently consolidating gains above the 1.2820 support level. An initial support is near the 1.2835 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.2775 swing low to 1.2854 high. The main support is forming near the 1.2815 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.2775 swing low to 1.2854 high. Any more losses might call for a break below the 1.2800 support zone. On the upside, the 1.2850 level is a key resistance. Therefore, a successful break and close above the 1.2850 resistance level could spark another strong upward move. The next key resistance is near the 1.2885 level, above which the bulls are likely to target more upsides above the 1.2900 level. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 Financial Markets at Risk as the Virus Locks Europe Down The markets opened with a bearish tone as there is a new turn of events on the pandemic course. Over the weekend, the news that a new virus’ variant circulates in the United Kingdom caused panic in Europe. According to the UK authorities, the new variant spreads faster, and that poses a risk for the period ahead. Quickly after the announcement, several European countries suspended their flights to the United Kingdom, in a move that signals the harsh lockdown in place in Europe. As such, the market is at risk of declining due to the lack of liquidity characteristic this time of the year. The Fed Remains Dovish Last week’s main event was the Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision. The Fed chooses to do nothing at this meeting, but it kept a dovish tone. During the press conference, the Fed’s Chair Powell said that the central bank reopened the USD swap lines and that it will keep the Quantitative Easing (QE) program at the same pace of $120 billion. Much of the focus of last week’s meeting was to see if the Fed hints at changing the focus of the bond-buying. So far, the focus was on shorter-term maturities, but rumors in the market suggested that the Fed may switch to longer-term maturities. By targeting longer-term bonds, the Fed aims at lowering the yields further, in a move destined to ease financial conditions even more. However, it did not do so, but it hinted that it represents a tool it may use in the future. Risk-Off Market Moves Moving forward, there is the danger of a risk-off move that could grip markets this week. In a risk-off, the USD rises, and the stock market falls. Risk-off market moves are coordinated and have the tendency to affect all markets in a correlated manner. In other words, it does not matter what market one is trading, as they are all affected. Because the USD is the world’s reserve currency, how it trades this week is key to risk. As such, expect a more volatile trading week than otherwise. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 BTC and XRP – Correction developing but for how long? BTC/USD The price of Bitcoin has continued increasing from last week and came to $24,310 at its highest points yesterday from which it decreased by 10.11% at first, but is now making a recovery and is currently sitting at $23,478 level. This minor pullback we have seen yesterday could have been the beginning of the higher degree descending move as the prior impulse to the upside ended but since the price is starting to increase again we are yet to see. On the hourly chart, you can see that it came up in a five-wave manner from the 11th of December when it was sitting at $17,500 at its lowest point which was a higher low compared to the one made on the 26th of November. This higher lower could have been the ending point of the corrective 4th wave from the higher degree in which case the price has formed now the 5th wave. In that case, we are now to see the start of the descending move, but another possibility would be that this higher low on the 11th was the 2nd sub-wave of the new higher degree impulse. If the second is true, then the five-wave impulse from the 11th is the 3rd wave which means that the current corrective structure is the 4th wave and that the price is going to continue increasing again after. Now as the price is making a recovery we are going to see the validation of either scenario from its behavior. If it manages to exceed yesterday’s high it would indicate that another increase is going to the develop before the starting higher degree decline, but if finds resistance here and starts decreasing again it would mean that the increase ended. XRP/USD The price of Ripple has been in a decline from the 17th of December when it was sitting at $0.66413 and fell to $0.4509 today, which is a decrease of 32.1% but has since started making a minor recovery and is currently sitting at $0.4943. Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the price made an impulsive rise after the completion of the descending triangle like expected and has broken out above the prior lower high. This was a bullish sign but however, it made it back to the same levels from which it started its upward trajectory. This could indicate that the correction is still in place with the previous impulsive rise being the second wave X from the prolonged WXYXZ complex correction. If this is true then the price is now going to make another lower low for the development of the Z wave. Another possibility could be that this is another starting five-wave impulse with the last decline being its 2nd sub-wave. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Resolve Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 EUR/USD and USD/JPY Approaching Next Crucial Breakout EUR/USD corrected lower after it struggled to clear the 1.2250 resistance level. USD/JPY is trading above 103.20 and it is likely setting up for the next major move. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY The Euro seems to be facing a strong resistance near 1.2250 and 1.2260. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2160 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. USD/JPY is rising steadily and it is well above the 103.20 support level. There is a key contracting triangle forming with support near 103.45 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis In the past few days, there were swing moves in the Euro above 1.2200 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair made a couple of attempt to gain strength above 1.2250 and 1.2260, but it failed. The recent swing high was formed near 1.2256 on FXOpen before the price started a fresh decline. There was a break below the 1.2200 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 1.2180 support, but it stayed above the 1.2150 zone. A low is formed near 1.2152 and the pair is currently rising. It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2256 high to 1.2152 low. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the 1.2200 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2256 high to 1.2152 low is also near 1.2205. A clear break above the 1.2200 resistance zone could lead the pair towards the main 1.2230 level and a connecting bearish trend line. Any more upsides might increase the chances of a break above 1.2260. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline below the 1.2165 support. The main support is near the 1.2150 zone, and a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2160 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. A break below the trend line support could lead the pair towards the 1.2100 level. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar started a fresh increase from the 103.00 support zone against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair broke the 103.20 zone to move into a positive zone. The pair even broke the 103.50 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The recent high was formed near 103.73 before the pair started a downside correction. There was a break below the 103.55 level. The pair also declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 103.31 low to 103.73 high. It is now trading near a major support at 103.45. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with support near 103.45 on the hourly chart. If there is a downside break below the trend line, there is a risk of a larger decline towards the 103.20 and 103.00 levels. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the 103.65 level. A clear break above the 103.65 zone is needed to start a steady rise towards the 104.00 and 104.20 levels. Any more gains could lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 104.50 level, where the bulls are likely to face a strong resistance in the near term. FXOpen Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broforex51 Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 Slow but sure, CHFJPY going down, so you can start open sell position when the price breaks support area at 116.203 with potential target up to 50 pips below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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