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[Volkov Yuriy]

 Gold Hits Historical Record!

Gold is a precious metal classified as a protective asset. Traders commonly use gold for portfolio diversification and as a "safe haven" during economic downturns. In the long term, gold exhibits a steady upward trend and is suitable for investments with a horizon of 5-7 years or more. Simultaneously, due to its relatively high volatility, gold is also suitable for successful intraday speculative trading.

In January, global central banks doubled their gold purchases for their reserves. The Central Bank of Turkey and the People's Bank of China emerged as leading buyers. The demand for this precious metal from central banks may be a decisive factor in supporting prices in 2024.

On Wednesday, March 6, the XAUUSD price reached a new historical maximum of $2,149 per ounce. In just the last five trading sessions, gold has risen by over $100! The current forecast indicates a price movement towards $2,255 and beyond. Similar to Bitcoin, we predicted this growth in the news article "FreshForex Gold Alert" from November 21, 2023.

The increase in gold prices is also attributed to the interest of private investors and institutional funds in gold as a safe-haven asset for risk hedging. It is expected that this trend will continue in the coming years, making gold a very reliable investment.

Investing in gold is a time-tested possibility to earn in the market. Don't miss the chance to increase your capital with this noble metal!

 

Buy Gold

[Volkov Yuriy]

HOW FRESHFOREX TRADERS PROFIT FROM THE DEPARTING WINTER?

 

Since the beginning of January 2024, the price of natural gas (#GAS) has been steadily following a bearish trend, nearly halving from $3.3 to $1.7!

FreshForex analysts continue to adhere to a short position strategy, and here are several factors influencing the current situation: 

• Decrease in gas demand during mild weather,
• Concerns about excess supply, as the reduction in gas production by companies Chesapeake and EQT and the decrease in gas reserves by 9 billion cubic feet have not yet triggered a market reaction,
• Reduction in the gas consumption forecast in the US for 2024, announced by the Department of Energy,
• Pause by the Biden administration in implementing new gas projects to expand LNG production in the US.

 

Have price lows been reached, and is it time to buy, or will the #GAS contract continue to decrease in value?

 

Since the total gas reserves are 37% above the five-year average and 14% exceed the previous five-year maximum, experts believe that the situation may only change by summer when reserves approach normal levels.

However, a sharp price change may occur suddenly in the case of extreme heat or other unexpected circumstances that contribute to increased demand.

 

Keep an eye on the market and ignite your #GAS trades with FreshForex under the most favorable conditions - spreads from $1.51 and margin as low as $0.69 for a minimum trade of 0.01 lot!

 

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[Volkov Yuriy]

JAPAN'S NIKKEI INDEX HITS HISTORIC HIGH!

The Nikkei 225 - Japan's key stock index comprising 225 companies from the Land of the Rising Sun listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is calculated as the arithmetic mean of their values. The index was introduced in 1950 and named after the newspaper that first applied such a calculation methodology to the Japanese stock market.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) is one of the largest in the world, with over 2,000 companies represented, including brands known to everyone - Toyota, Sony, Mitsubishi, Nintendo, SoftBank, and many others. In terms of market capitalization, TSE is second only to the New York Stock Exchange.

The historic peak of #NIKKEI was reached on December 29, 1989, when the index rose to 38,957 points during the day's trading. And now, for the first time in 34 years, in our days, #NIKKEI has exceeded the 40,000-point mark. 

FreshForex analysts point to the following factors driving the growth of the Japanese stock market in 2024:

• Strengthening of technology company stocks and reports of high corporate earnings
• Investor optimism amid billionaire Warren Buffett's investment in major Japanese companies (Berkshire Hathaway holding),
• Exporter stocks supported by a weakening yen, increasing their profits in the national currency,
• Rising inflation to 2.8% - a radical change compared to the deflation of previous years when constant price declines negatively affected company profits.

 

Thanks to these factors, traders worldwide see increasing opportunities in the Japanese market.

In 2023, the Nikkei 225 gained 29%, marking the highest annual growth in a decade. And since the beginning of the current year, it has added another 22%, making the contract extremely attractive for investment.

Evaluate the potential of the #NIKKEI contract alongside successful traders on our trading platform!

 

Invest in Japan

Edited March 22 by Volkov Yuriy

[Volkov Yuriy]

BLACK GOLD CONTINUES ITS RISE!

Oil prices are rapidly increasing at the beginning of the week, driven by a number of factors: geopolitical conflict threats, prospects of production cuts from OPEC+ members, and the depreciation of the dollar.

 
 
As of today, Brent crude oil has reached a price of $86 per barrel!

OPEC+ reaffirms its position on limiting oil production and sees no need for changes, reports Bloomberg, citing several informed sources. On April 3, the alliance will hold an online meeting to assess the progress of the latest production agreements, which are set to run until the end of June.

According to commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo from UBS Group AG, the rise in oil prices is attributed to positive data from China, including refinery activity levels and increased oil demand. According to Chinese authorities, crude oil processing volumes in January and February reached a historic high of 118.76 million tons, exceeding last year's figure by 3%.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict an increase in commodity prices this year, based on central bank rate cuts worldwide. This forecast is supported by other market participants such as Macquarie Group and Carlyle Group.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

GOLD HAS ALREADY HIT RECORDS, NOW IT'S COPPER'S TIME

According to the CME Group, demand for copper futures contracts continues to grow steadily, and institutional funds continue to increase their volumes.

As a result, since the beginning of the year, copper has risen by almost 10%, and the price of the CUCUSD contract confidently reached a 14-month high.

Key growth factors include:

- Increased demand for the metal due to the transition to "green" energy. Solar or wind power stations, electric vehicles, any form of renewable energy - they all require copper because if you need to electrify something, conduct electricity, you need copper.

- Supply reduction risk. On April 3, Canadian mining company Ivanhoe Mines reported a quarterly production decrease of 6.5% at the Kamoa-Kakula mining complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition, drought in Zambia threatens the planned expansion of the country's mining industry. This leads to supply shortages and further price increases. Goldman Sachs predicts a copper deficit of over 500,000 tons in 2024.

- Expected reduction in the Fed rate. The rise in CUCUSD increased after statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the key rate. He stated that despite higher-than-expected inflation data, the overall situation remains unchanged and a rate cut will be necessary "at some point this year."

According to CNBC analysts' forecasts, by 2025, copper prices could rise by more than 75% and reach new historical highs. FreshForex analysts make more modest forecasts but also expect an upward trend in CUCUSD as a more likely scenario, especially in the case of an improvement in the global economy.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

BRIGHT SHINE OF GOLD ABOVE NEW PEAKS

On April 12, gold once again set a record, surpassing the $2400 per ounce mark. Since the beginning of the year, XAUUSD has already risen by +15%, which currently outpaces the US stock market nearly threefold (Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are currently showing growth of around 6%).

Against the backdrop of this historical surge, experts predict further price hikes for the precious metal, confidently stating the possibility of reaching $3000 per ounce.

FreshForex analysts have repeatedly forecasted such growth since November 2023. We believe that gold continues to be a profitable investment, supported by several factors:

• Geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty. Last year, gold prices increased by more than 19%, and according to analysts, there is still room for growth in this rally. Conflicts in the Middle East and other hotspots around the world increase the premium for geopolitical risk, maintaining interest in gold.
• Forecasts from major financial institutions' analysts. Bank of America and Citigroup are optimistic about gold's future, predicting its rise to $3000 per ounce in the coming years. Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast to $2700 per ounce, and UBS expects it to reach $2500 by the end of 2024. Analysts believe that increased investor inflows, expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and active purchases by major central banks and consumers in China will support this growth.
• Investors view gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.Demand for the precious metal strengthens during periods of declining confidence in risky assets such as currency, stocks, and bonds, and it is forecasted that this trend will continue, pushing gold prices to new heights.

Thus, confidence in gold remains unshaken, giving the green light for new investment flows and trading ideas. Our traders have assessed market sentiment and actively use the XAUUSD trading pair in their strategies.

Trade precious metals with leverage up to 1:1000 and narrow spreads with FreshForex to maximize your profits!

Invest in gold

[Volkov Yuriy]

Secrets of success on the American stock market

Snapchat (#Snapchat) shares surged by 27% to $14.5 per share, following the post-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, April 26. And they continue to climb this week:

Several factors contributed to this rapid growth:

• Demand for Snap shares increased after the release of financial results. Snap noted that its business is growing faster than expected, thanks to the update of its advertising system and higher demand for features that help brands increase sales or clicks on websites.
• In the first quarter, the number of daily active users (DAUs) grew by 10% to 422 million. According to StreetAccount, analysts expected 420 million users. Snap also expects to generate revenue of $1.23 billion in the second quarter, higher than analysts' expectations ($1.22 billion).
• The company's revenue per user increased on a yearly basis for the first time since the beginning of 2022, reflecting the recovery of the advertising market and Snap's efforts to revive growth, said Morningstar analyst Michael Hodel.

Simultaneously with Snapchat's success, Tesla (#Tesla) shares began to soar sharply on news that Elon Musk, during his visit to China, reached an agreement with the Chinese technology giant Baidu (#Baidu). The companies will collaborate in the field of mapping and navigation, allowing Tesla to use its Full-Self Driving (FSD) software in China for fully autonomous driving. As a result, the electric car manufacturer's shares rose by 7.98% to $181.72 in pre-market trading on April 29.

Google (#Google) also made headlines by announcing its market capitalization. The market cap of Alphabet, Google's parent company, exceeded $2 trillion for the first time, reaching $2.15 trillion. According to TradingView, Alphabet now ranks fourth in the world by market capitalization. It is surpassed only by Microsoft (#Microsoft) with a market cap of $3.02 trillion, Apple (#Apple) with a market value of $2.61 trillion, and NVIDIA (#NVIDIA), whose market capitalization is $2.19 trillion.

And we remind you that the shares of these companies and many others are available for trading in our trading terminal. Still hesitating where to invest? FreshForex analysts have repeatedly pointed out the prospects for gold and bitcoin, and the forecasts have come true. And now is the time to invest in the fund. Earn with us!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

#GAMESTOP IS NOT GOING TO STOP!

GameStop Corp (#GameStop) video game store chain shares soared by 46% during Monday's trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), reaching $25.

The surge didn't stop there, as on Tuesday the price reached up to $60 per share! Wednesday opened with a sudden downward gap, but by the end of the session, the price confidently recovered to $40. What will happen today?

The rollercoaster ride repeats itself with this stock after the sudden return to social media by YouTube streamer Keith Gill, known as Roaring Kitty. He posted a mysterious message on the X service (formerly Twitter), showing that he's always in the know. Gill's post garnered over 8 million views within hours of its late Sunday posting, marking his first post on the account since June 2021.

The surge in stock prices led to a so-called "short squeeze" - a situation where investors betting against the stock and opening short positions are forced to buy stocks as their prices unexpectedly rise, contrary to their expectations. This situation further fueled the rise in shares, which appreciated by hundreds of percent. As a result, funds betting against the company's stocks lost billions of dollars. Giacomo Pierantoni, Head of Data at Vanda Research, stated that the overwhelming majority of demand for shares now comes from retail investors. It seems that, as in January 2021, investors are betting against those shorting GameStop Corp (#GameStop) shares, notes MarketWatch.

Just recently, on May 2nd, FreshForex analysts drew attention to the US stock market, after which the price of Snapchat (#Snapchat) shares increased by 10%! Our analysts' forecasts for gold not only came true but the asset also surpassed its historical maximum twice!

Our trading terminal offers a wide range of shares from major companies. Many of them are just starting their growth this year, so invest with us!

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Where is the big money flowing in the markets?

 

Yesterday, on May 20, gold (XAUUSD) reached a new all-time high of $2450 per ounce! At its peak, the growth was an impressive 17.5% since the beginning of the year!

Some analysts had previously predicted a rise up to $3500 per troy ounce, and current prices are confirming these forecasts.

 

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) also did not lag behind. The leading cryptocurrency gained 8% yesterday, reaching $72,000. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has grown by 73%!

FreshForex analysts are confident that gold and Bitcoin form a powerful duo for protecting and growing capital. Here's why:

- Inflation Hedge: Gold and Bitcoin are often viewed as hedges against inflation. Both assets have a limited supply (finite amount of gold on Earth, finite number of Bitcoin), which increases their value amid rising money supply.

- Portfolio Diversification: Investors and traders, fearing inflation, prefer gold and Bitcoin as stable assets that can better preserve their value over time.

- Capital Inflow: Wealthy investors and speculators have always bought precious metals to preserve capital. The launch of Bitcoin funds on the exchange attracts new large investors, supporting high prices.

- Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts in Europe and the Middle East increase the demand for stable and safe assets.

We’re tired of repeating it, but our analysts have consistently predicted the current rise in both gold and Bitcoin, and they are now confident that the growth is not yet over.

 

Don't miss the chance to invest in these current market trends with FreshForex!

Grow Your Capital

[Volkov Yuriy]

Event to watch out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Durable Goods Orders

EURUSD:

 

The Euro-dollar pair continues to decline around 1.0808 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) recovery, supported by stronger US PMI data, is pulling the major pair down. German gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter (Q1) is due out on Friday. Quarterly GDP is forecast to rise by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while annual GDP is forecast to contract by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.

The dollar gained on the back of favorable economic data from the U.S. released on Thursday. The S&P Global Flash US Purchasing Managers' Composite Index (PMI) for May rose to 54.4 in May from 51.3 in April, the highest reading since April 2022. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 50.0 in April. The services PMI rose to 54.8 in May from the previous reading of 51.3. Both indicators were above the market consensus. In addition, weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending May 18 fell to 215k from 223k the previous week, below the forecast of 220k.

Moreover, speculation is growing that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting interest rates ahead of the Fed, putting pressure on the Euro. ECB President Christine Lagarde said she is “really confident” that Eurozone inflation is under control and an interest rate cut is possible next month. According to LSEG, financial markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Sell from the current price level.

 

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Edited May 24 by Volkov Yuriy

[Volkov Yuriy]

ETHEREUM REACHES NEW HEIGHTS

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is once again at the peak of interest in the crypto community, and it's no coincidence. Here are some key events:

1. ETF Breakthrough: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has finally approved 8 applications to launch Ethereum ETFs from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. This SEC decision is primarily political and opens the doors to new investments from the masses. It is expected that the Ethereum ETF will attract between $5 and $8 billion.

2. Successful Network Upgrade: The recent Ethereum network upgrade, known as Dencun, brought significant improvements in scalability and security. These changes, including new smart contract capabilities, will make the Ethereum network even more attractive to developers and users, driving further growth.

3. Analysts’ Forecasts Fuel Interest: Analysts agree that the approval of the ETF and the successful network upgrade can significantly impact the value of the second-largest cryptocurrency and may even trigger a new "altcoin season," similar to how Bitcoin ETF approval previously led to substantial price increases across various crypto pairs.

All these factors create optimistic prospects for the cryptocurrency as a whole, attracting the attention of investors and developers. So, if you haven't tried it yet, now is the perfect time to consider investing in the world of cryptocurrencies.

At FreshForex, we offer accounts in 7 cryptocurrencies and 70 crypto pairs with 1:100 leverage for trading 24/7.

Plus, get a bonus of up to 10% on your balance for your first crypto account deposit!

 

Jump into the crypto world

Edited May 26 by Volkov Yuriy

[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental market analysis for 05/27/2024 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD exchange rate rose for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.2740, near two-month highs, during the Asian hours on Monday. The rise in GBP/USD may be driven by a risk-on sentiment, despite diminishing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Please be aware that the UK market will be closed on Monday due to the Spring Bank Holiday, and the US market will be closed on the same day due to the Memorial Day bank holiday.

On Friday, the University of Michigan released its consumer inflation expectations for the next five years. The figure fell slightly to 3.0%, below the forecast of 3.1%. Despite an upward revision to the consumer sentiment index to 69.1 from a preliminary reading of 67.4, the index remained at its lowest level in six months. The data is likely to have contributed to a positive investor sentiment regarding the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This resulted in a weaker US dollar and provided support to the GBP/USD pair.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September has decreased to 44.9% from 49.0% a week earlier.

In the United Kingdom (UK), traders reacted to the release of lower-than-expected retail sales data on Friday. There was a significant decline of 2.3% in monthly sales of goods by retailers in April, which was much worse than the 0.4% decline that had been anticipated. On a year-on-year basis, sales fell by 2.7 per cent, in contrast to the anticipated 0.2 per cent decline. Meanwhile, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index fell to -17 in May, slightly better than expectations of -18 and the previous reading of -19.

In addition, the UK's annual inflation rate moderated, moving closer to the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target. This moderation has dampened investor expectations for a rate cut in June, potentially providing support to the Pound Sterling (GBP).

Trading recommendation: Trade buy orders when the price reaches 1.2760. Sell at the price level of 1.2710.

 

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Edited May 27 by Volkov Yuriy

[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental market analysis for 05/28/2024 USDJPY

 

An event to look out for today:

17:00 GMT+3. USD - Consumer confidence indicator

 

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) continued to strengthen for a second straight day on Tuesday, receiving support from Japan's Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI). The index rose 2.8% year-on-year in April, beating expectations of 2.3% and showing the fastest pace of growth since March 2015.

The Japanese yen may have received some support after remarks by Japan's Finance Minister Shun'ichi Suzuki on Tuesday that pointed to the possibility of verbal intervention. Suzuki emphasized the importance of stable currency movements reflecting fundamentals, saying that he closely monitors foreign exchange (FX) movements. However, he refrained from commenting on whether Japan has conducted FX intervention.

The US Dollar (USD) continues to lose ground following a decline in US Treasury yields. Traders are likely to wait for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data to be released on Friday to assess further US monetary policy.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with buy orders at the 157.00 price level. Consider sell orders at the price level of 156.45.

 

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental market analysis for 05/29/2024 EURUSD

 

An event to look out for today:

21:00 GMT+3. USD - Publication of the Fed's Beige Book economic survey by region

 

EURUSD:

 

The Euro-dollar pair rose to an intraday high near 1.0890 on Tuesday before market flows pushed the pair back to familiar levels near 1.0860. The pair is holding steady as Euro traders await fresh German consumer price index inflation data. Key US data is just around the corner with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation due out on Thursday and Friday respectively.

German CPI inflation is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m in May from the previous reading of 0.5%. Investors are hoping that CPI inflation in key European countries will turn around and continue to decline to push the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates by a quarter point during the central bank's upcoming June meeting.

U.S. investors are having an uphill battle trying to determine when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates for the first time. Back in December, markets were predicting up to six rate cuts of at least 25 basis points each, with the first quarter-point rate cut expected in March. Today, markets are pricing in a roughly equal chance of a quarter-point rate cut in September, and hopes for two rate cuts in 2024 are fading.

Annualized U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter, to be released on Thursday, is forecast to fall to 1.3% from a previous reading of 1.6%. US PCE inflation is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% m/m on Friday.

Trading recommendation: Trade in the channel 1.0840-1.0890 on a rebound from the levels.

 

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[Volkov Yuriy]

NVIDIA STOCK SALE FOR $115!

Can you find anyone in the 21st century who hasn't heard of NVIDIA, the leader in high-performance computing solutions for the most complex tasks? The corporation's developments have become widespread in the video game industry, professional visualization, crypto mining, and autonomous vehicles.

The latest peak of #NVIDIA shares on the NASDAQ was nearly $1150, and since the beginning of the year, the price has already increased by 130%!

 

But the extravaganza of generosity for investors doesn’t stop there. Recently, the tech giant announced a 10-to-1 stock split, scheduled for June 10.

Remember, after the previous stock split on July 20, 2021, #NVIDIA's price rose almost 85% without any pullbacks. And now Wall Street analysts are predicting continued growth, driven by several factors:

• Strong financial health: In the first quarter of 2024, Nvidia reported a 262% increase in revenue ($26 billion) compared to the same period last year, exceeding analysts' expectations. The announcement also mentioned a 150% increase in dividends, further signaling optimistic growth prospects.
• Diversification of product lines: The corporation continues to expand its product range, including processors for gaming systems, professional video, and autonomous vehicles. This helps minimize risks and dependence on specific economic sectors, as well as attract new customers.
• Increasing demand in AI and cloud computing: Nvidia is driven to enhance existing technologies and develop new chip designs, leading to revenue growth and higher stock value.
• Continuous investment in new developments: The company consistently invests significant funds in researching new technologies, allowing Nvidia to stay ahead of competitors and create products that meet the rapidly changing market demands.
• After the 10-to-1 stock split, the price will become much more accessible, attracting new private investors and additional investments.

 

Thus, based on the company's strong financial foundation, innovation leadership, and rapid growth in product demand, FreshForex analysts are confident that NVIDIA shares will continue to rise, and the 230% growth in 2023 is far from the limit.

Remember, our trading terminal also offers stocks of other major companies – invest in the best with us!

 

Become a shareholder

[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental market analysis for 05/30/2024 GBPUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - GDP q/q

17:00 GMT+3. USD - Pending Home Sales m/m

18:00 GMT+3. USD - EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is declining to 1.2695 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The decline in the pair is supported by a stronger US Dollar (USD) amid rising US yields and lower bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.

In recent weeks, Fed officials have been cautious on the inflation outlook, prompting traders to cut bets on an easing cycle this year. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are pricing in a 50% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September. The combination of the Fed's cautious stance and stronger US economic data has provided some support for the US dollar in previous sessions.

On Thursday, investors will be focused on the second estimate of US gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1 2024, which is expected to grow by 1.3%. Should the report show stronger-than-expected data, this could further strengthen the US dollar and create a headwind for GBP/USD. Additionally, later in the day, the US will release weekly data on initial jobless claims, trade balance and pending home sales. Fed officials Rafael Bostic, John Williams and Laurie Logan are also scheduled to speak.

With regard to the British pound, there is growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will commence cutting interest rates at its August meeting due to a worsening outlook for UK inflation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had previously forecast two to three rate cuts from the Bank of England. In the absence of important economic data releases from the UK, election speculation could weigh on the Pound Sterling (GBP). The potential for political uncertainty to negatively impact the Pound Sterling and limit its near-term growth is a key concern. 

Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

 

FreshForex offers a wonderful 300% bonus on every deposit of $100 or more, giving you the opportunity to increase your trading volumes!

You can find more analytical information on our website.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental market analysis for 05/31/2024 USDJPY

 

An event to look out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Change in personal income/expenditures

 

USDJPY:

 

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains stable following the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan on Friday. The CPI rose to 2.2% year-on-year in May from the previous 26-month low of 1.8%.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a deeply entrenched monetary policy stance. If Japan's nationwide inflation falls, it will prevent the central bank from raising interest rates. The large rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to weigh on the Japanese Yen, supporting the USD/JPY pair.

The US Dollar (USD) is recovering ahead of Friday's release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. A decline in U.S. Treasury yields could limit USD gains.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar (DXY) against six other major currencies, is trading higher near 104.80, and yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries were at 4.92% and 4.54% at press time, respectively.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 157.00. We consider sell orders at the price level of 156.30.

 

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental market analysis for 06/03/2024 EURUSD

 

An event to look out for today:

17:00 GMT+3. USD - ISM manufacturing index

 

EURUSD:

 

EUR/USD continues to rise around 1.0850 on Monday during the early Asian session. Lower PCE inflation data in the US and better-than-expected HICP inflation data in the eurozone provide some support for the major pair. The ISM US manufacturing PMI for May will be in focus on Monday ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on Wednesday.  

On Friday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.3% month-on-month in April, as expected. On a year-over-year basis, PCE was 2.7% y/y in April, in line with March's increase and in line with forecasts.

The PCE core price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% y/y, in line with market consensus. Core inflation was at its lowest level since March 2021. However, the latest data was not enough to trigger expectations of a Fed rate cut, as investors believe the Fed needs more evidence to gain confidence that inflation is on track to meet its 2% target. 

Higher-than-expected Eurozone inflation may not stop the ECB from cutting interest rates this week, but it could signal a halt in July and a slower rate cut in the coming months. According to Reuters, financial markets are forecasting ECB rate cuts of nearly 25 basis points (bps) in June and 57 bps in 2024. Traders will be watching Lagarde's press conference closely for more signals on the pace of rate cuts beyond June. Any dovish message from the ECB is likely to put pressure on the euro (EUR) and create a headwind for EUR/USD. 

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0875. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0830.

 

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental market analysis for 06/04/2024 GBPUSD

 

GBPUSD:

The GBP and USD pair is attracting buyers around 1.2810 in the early Asian session on Tuesday. The major pair's rise near multi-week highs is being aided by a weaker US Dollar (USD) following the release of weaker-than-expected manufacturing sector business activity index data. USD. Later on Tuesday, data on US factory orders and job openings will be released. 

Markets expect that the Bank of England (BoE) may start cutting interest rates from its August meeting as the UK's annual core inflation rate fell significantly in April. However, Bank of England policymakers remain concerned about slowing disinflation in the services sector. In the absence of important economic data from the UK, US Dollar price dynamics will continue to play a key role in influencing GBP/USD this week. 

The US manufacturing sector contracted at an accelerated pace in May, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Monday. ISM's US Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in May from 49.2 in April, below the market consensus forecast of 49.6. The dollar faced fresh selling pressure in response to the weak data. 

Ahead of the FOMC meeting, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that interest rates need to be held for a “long” time, adding that lower borrowing costs before inflation is brought under control would jeopardize the foundations of US prosperity. Nevertheless, recent weaker US PCE inflation data and a weak US manufacturing PMI have raised expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this year. Traders now estimate the probability of a Fed rate cut in September at almost 53%, down from 49% before the inflation report was released.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.2840. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.2775.

 

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[Volkov Yuriy]

Fundamental market analysis for 06/05/2024 USDJPY

An event to look out for today:

17:00 GMT+3. USD - ISM Index of Business Activity in the Services Sector

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) is declining on Wednesday due to investor caution ahead of key US data releases, including ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI reports. Investor attention is expected to shift to the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will be released on Friday.

The Yen may face further downward pressure due to the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, which supports the USD/JPY pair. However, the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair may be limited by better than expected data from Japan released on Wednesday.

The Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised upward to 53.8 in May from the previous reading of 53.6. Despite the upward revision, the index fell short of April's 8-month high of 54.3, indicating the lowest growth in the services sector since February. In addition, workers' cash income rose at a 2.1% annualized rate in April, exceeding forecasts for a 1.7% increase. This latest figure was also the highest since last June.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against six other major currencies, rose thanks to higher U.S. Treasury yields. However, a weak US manufacturing PMI for May raised the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will make its first rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut is 64.9%, up from 46.3% a week earlier.

Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 156.00. We consider sell orders at the price level of 155.20.

 

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