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[Volkov Yuriy]

5 MINUTE BREAKTHROUGH: A PROFITABLE STARTING STRATEGY

Dear clients,

What can you do in a mere 5 minutes? Hit the restroom, have a smoke or... make a profit. This time, we'll be looking at a simple trading strategy fit for both newcomers and experienced traders.

Join us on May 24 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

NEW TRICKS OF THE OLD CRYPTO

Dear clients,

According to Glassnode, daily transactions hit an all-time high of 682,000 this month, up almost 40% from the previous peak in 2017. Bitcoin's dominance, or share of the total $1.16 trillion cryptocurrency market, has risen to 44% from 38% at the start of the year.

This is due to BRC-20, the first class of cryptocurrency tokens created on the bitcoin blockchain apart from bitcoin itself. Nearly 25,000 experimental coins have already been minted this year, leading to a surge in transactions.

Mostly due to the creation of these tokens, the average daily transaction volume in seven days was more than 531,000, almost double what it was a month ago, according to Blockchain.com.

This new class of cryptocurrency has no specific use beyond speculation, much like memecoins. However, its nascent popularity points to interest in bitcoin not just as a store of value or a payment method, but also as a basis for developing new coins and applications - previously considered the domain of more modern blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana.

Some investors and developers see bitcoin blockchain as a safer long-term basis for creating tokens and applications amid the cryptocurrency carnage that has followed the collapse of high-profile companies such as FTX and a general flight away from risky assets, market participants say.

Nevertheless, the excitement around BRC-20 has been volatile. The total value of these tokens, which are typically traded on secondary markets, especially on decentralised exchanges, surpassed $1bn in early May, but has since fallen to $446m, according to tracker BRC-20.io.

Because the bitcoin blockchain was not originally designed to support the crypto ecosystem, unlike Ethereum and Solana, BRC-20 tokens are created using ordinar theory, which allows data to be written on each satoshi - the smallest bitcoin denomination, or hundred-millionth of a bitcoin.

The race to create these new coins has had little impact on the price of bitcoin, which has been trading below $30,000 since mid-April. However, experts see this trend as "promising" in terms of interest in creating products on the bitcoin blockchain.

ONE STEP BEHIND. THE AI LEGISLATION

Dear clients,

As the race to develop more powerful artificial intelligence services such as ChatGPT accelerates, some regulators are still relying on old laws to control a technology that could change the way society and business operate.

The European Union is at the forefront of developing new rules for AI that could become a global benchmark to address the privacy and security concerns raised by the rapid development of generative AI technology underpinning OpenAI's ChatGPT. However, it will take several years for the legislation to take effect.

"In the absence of regulations, the only thing governments can do is to apply existing rules," experts say. "If it's about protecting personal data, they apply data protection laws, if it's about threatening people's security, there are rules that have not been specifically defined for AI, but they still apply."

In April, European national privacy regulators set up a task force to tackle ChatGPT after Italian regulator Garante pulled the service offline, accusing OpenAI of violating the EU's GDPR, a wide-ranging privacy regime adopted in 2018. ChatGPT was reinstated after the US company agreed to install age verification features and allowed European users to block their information from being used to train AI models.

Generative AI models have become well known for making mistakes, or 'hallucinations', providing misinformation with supernatural certainty.

Such errors can have serious consequences. If a bank or government department uses AI to speed up decision-making, people could be unfairly denied credit or benefits. Major technology companies, including Google and Microsoft Corp, have stopped using AI products considered ethically questionable, such as financial products.

US and European experts say regulators intend to apply existing rules covering everything from copyright and data privacy to two key aspects: the data entering models and the content they produce.

While regulators adapt to the pace of technological advances, some in the industry are calling for more engagement with corporate leaders. Dialogue between regulators and companies has so far been "limited", they say.

"This does not bode well for the future," they say. "Regulators seem either slow or unwilling to adopt approaches that strike the right balance between consumer protection and business growth."

[Volkov Yuriy]

CHIPPIN' IN: NVIDIA'S POWER BOOST

Dear clients,

Nvidia Corp on Wednesday forecast second-quarter revenue more than 50 percent above Wall Street forecasts and said it was increasing shipments to meet growing demand for its artificial intelligence chips, which are used to run ChatGPT and many similar services.

Shares in Nvidia, the world's most expensive semiconductor company, soared 28 per cent after the signal to a record high of $391.50. That boosted the market value of Nvidia stock by about $200 billion to more than $950 billion, extending the Silicon Valley-based company's lead as the world's most expensive chip maker and the fifth most valuable company on Wall Street.

Nvidia is forecasting revenue of $11bn for the current quarter, with analysts polled by Refinitiv citing a figure of $7.15bn. They note that amid a gold rush of generative artificial intelligence, demand for Nvidia chips is secure for the rest of the year.

Adjusted revenue for the quarter ended April 30 was $7.19bn on revenue expectations of $6.52bn. The company's data centre chip sales were $4.28bn, beating analysts' forecasts of $3.89bn, according to FactSet.

Nvidia faces competition in AI chips from traditional rivals such as Advanced Micron Devices Inc and Intel Corp, as well as from startups such as Cerebras Systems and its own AI chip efforts at companies such as Google and Amazon.

According to FactSet, revenue from gaming chip sales exceeded Wall Street expectations, coming in at $2.24 billion against forecasts of $1.97 billion. Net income rose to $2.04 billion, or 82 cents per share, from $1.62 billion, or 64 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding items, the company earned $1.09 per share in the first quarter, beating estimates of 92 cents.

THE STRUGGLE FOR DEPENDENCY. OPENAI AND EU CONFLICT

Dear clients,

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has spent the last week travelling around Europe, meeting leading politicians in France, Spain, Poland, Germany and the UK to discuss the future of AI and the progress of ChatGPT. On Wednesday, he warned that the company could leave the EU if the bloc becomes "over-regulated".

By February, ChatGPT had set a record for the fastest user base growth of any consumer app in history. More than six months after OpenAI unveiled its AI-powered chatbot to the world, concerns about its potential sparked excitement and anxiety - and led to conflict with regulators.

"The current EU bill on artificial intelligence would be over-regulatory, but we have heard that it is going to be pushed back," Altman said on Wednesday. EU lawmakers responsible for drafting the AI law have disputed Altman's claims. EU industry chief Thierry Breton also criticised the threat, saying the draft rules were non-negotiable. Dutch MEP Kim van Sparrentak, who also worked on the EU bill, said she and her colleagues "should not allow themselves to be blackmailed by US companies".

"If OpenAI cannot meet the basic requirements of data management, transparency, security and protection, then their systems are not suitable for the European market," she said.

OpenAI first clashed with regulators in March, when Italian data regulator Garante shut down the app domestically, accusing OpenAI of breaching European privacy rules. ChatGPT returned to the web after the company introduced new privacy protections for users.

Meanwhile, EU lawmakers have made new proposals to the Artificial Intelligence Act, which would oblige companies using generative tools such as ChatGPT to disclose all copyrighted material used to train systems. EU parliamentarians agreed a draft law earlier this month. Member states, the European Commission and Parliament will finalise the final details of the bill.

The departure of OpenAI is seen as an unlikely outcome as the European market is too valuable economically. Experts note that some legislative relieves are still possible, but the overall trajectory has already been set.

[Volkov Yuriy]

UNPAUSABLE. FUTURE OF FED RATES

Dear clients,

Federal Reserve policymakers received a dose of unexpectedly strong US economic data on Friday, which bolstered the case for further monetary policy tightening to reduce persistently high inflation.

A 0.8% rise in consumer spending last month compared with March was good news, showing that the economy is not on the brink of recession, but discomfort for policymakers waiting for a slowdown that could ease rising pressure on prices. And the increase in core inflation to 4.7%, up from 4.6% in March, underlined the Fed's less-than-steady progress in fighting inflation. The US central bank's inflation target is 2%.

Combined with seemingly some progress on a deal to raise the debt ceiling and avert a catastrophic US default, the latest data raises doubts that the Fed will indeed "pause" its campaign to raise rates, as Chairman Jerome Powell signalled earlier this month.

Interest rate futures traders are seeing less subtlety in the numbers and are now expecting an 11th consecutive interest rate hike in June, a reversal of the June pause bets made after the last hike on May 3.

Next month's rate hike is not a definitive decision: Key labour market data from next Friday and fresh inflation data expected on 13 June are still to be announced before the Fed meeting on 13-14 June. However, there are growing expectations that even if the Fed leaves rates unchanged in June, it will hit the brakes in July. In the futures markets the odds are three to one in favour of a rate hike until then.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller — one of the Fed's most hawkish voices — made this point earlier last week. He said that while key data in the coming weeks as well as uncertainty over credit conditions could support a temporary rate halt, the lack of progress on inflation points to the need for further tightening.

BIG AND TECH. S&P 500' FINEST

Dear clients,

Never before in the history of US equities has a small group of companies from one industry had such an impact on the entire market. Six companies — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia and Meta Platforms — now have a combined valuation of around $10 trillion and account for more than a quarter of the total market capitalisation of the S&P 500.

All of these stocks have doubled in value in 2023 — and Nvidia and Meta more than doubled — thanks to the dawn of artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon halt interest rate hikes. The benchmark index is up 8% in 2023, but its return is down to just 2% if technology companies are excluded. The S&P 500 is also well behind the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which has entered bull market territory, jumping 22% this year.

Historically, it is rare for a handful of stocks from one sector to make up such a large proportion of the S&P 500. The last time the five largest valuation companies accounted for a quarter of the total market value of the index was in the 1960s, according to Schroders. It is also the first time in history that all five of the largest publicly listed companies represent the same industry.

However, this is not all good news for investors.

It is tempting to view the dominance of the technology sector as a good thing. But single-industry stocks tend to be vulnerable to the same macroeconomic factors — such as rising interest rates, which often hit technology stocks harder than other companies because they are more reliant on borrowing cash.

The overall size of the S&P 500 market is so concentrated around technology companies that it is more vulnerable to sharp price swings than before, Minerva Analysis said. When there is a narrow group of leaders, there is a big risk if something bad happens to technology. If interest rates rise to 7%, it will be bad news for the whole market.

So while the tech giants have provided a surprise rally in equities in 2023, their rising market capitalisation could end up being more of a curse than a blessing for investors.

TRADER' STARTER PACK

Dear clients,

When you are at the start of your trading path, you might want some boost, something to get ahead. This time we'll be looking at some strategies which can help a beginner to gain an egde.

Join us on May 31 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

[Volkov Yuriy]

THE RISING SUN OF THE MARKET

Dear clients,

As Japanese equities have unexpectedly come back into fashion with global investors, analysts at leading Wall Street investment banks are predicting further gains in the country's major indices.

Japan's Topix index (Tokyo Price Index) has reached new highs in the last two weeks, and on Monday it recorded its highest level since July 1990.

It has jumped 14% since the start of this year, recently fuelled by optimism from the tentative debt ceiling deal reached between US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, along with momentum from a weaker yen. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 continues to rise, gaining around 20% over the past year.

The start of an inflationary regime, combined with Tokyo Stock Exchange valuation reforms, will see Japanese equities hit record highs as early as the first half of 2025, according to BofA Securities.

BofA's forecasts echo those of other Wall Street firms, which see further room for a rally in Japanese equities. Heightened interest from foreign investors, strong earnings and a weak yen should continue to support growth in the Topix index. Disappointment with the Chinese economy and Warren Buffett's recent interest in the Japanese market are also cited as motivators.

While equities may face headwinds in the near term, the BofA said there is "no need to take a bearish stance if the market rallies in line with fundamentals". The current investment environment remains favourable following the opening of the economy and stronger inflation.

The rush in Japanese equities reached a record high on Wednesday amid a continued surge in foreign demand for the country's shares and an adjustment in positions ahead of the rebalancing of the MSCI equity index.

The value of shares traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Prime Market index reached an unprecedented level of nearly 7 trillion yen ($50 billion) on May 31. Finance Ministry data on Thursday showed foreign investors were net buyers of Japanese shares for nine consecutive weeks in the period ended May 26, the longest buying period since November 2019.

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TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR MAY

Dear clients,

On June 2, the Non-farm Payroll, a measure of US industrial employment, is expected to be published. The report greatly influences the movement of American dollar and related instruments.

We will find out what figures are expected this time from our expert:

Falling unemployment claims and rising employment in services - the lion's share of the US economy - are indicative of positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the dollar's strength. On Friday, consider buying USDTRY, USDZAR, USDCAD, USDCHF.

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ONE LESS THING TO WORRY ABOUT. THE GROWTH OF OIL

Dear clients,

Oil prices rose on Thursday by the largest amount in a fortnight ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, while the passage of a bill to suspend the US debt ceiling by the House of Representatives helped offset the impact of rising stocks in the country.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.01, or 3 per cent, to settle at $70.10 a barrel, recording its biggest daily gain since May 5. Brent crude futures rose $1.68, or 2.3%, to $74.65 a barrel, the biggest daily gain since May 17.

Both benchmarks recovered after two consecutive sessions of declines after the House of Representatives passed a bill late on Wednesday night to suspend the US government debt ceiling and improve the chances of preventing a default. The bill now moves to the Senate.

Market attention has shifted to the OPEC+ meeting on 4 June. Sources within the organisation said the alliance was unlikely to deepen supply cuts at Sunday's meeting, but some analysts believe this is possible as demand figures in China and the US have been disappointing in recent weeks.

US crude inventories rose unexpectedly last week as imports jumped and strategic stocks fell to their lowest level since September 1983, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Data from China's manufacturing sector presented a mixed picture, with Thursday's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI better than expected, while official government data from the previous day reported that activity at firms in May contracted to its lowest level in five months.

[Volkov Yuriy]

HOT TOPIC: SWAP-FREE CRYPTO IN JUNE!

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WHEN LESS IS MORE. SAUDI ARABIA CUTS OIL PRODUCTION

Dear clients,

Saudi Arabia will make deep production cuts in July, in addition to the broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply until 2024, as the group seeks to boost oil prices.

Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said the country's output would fall to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest cut in years.

"This is a Saudi lollipop," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz told on a news conference. "We wanted to ice the cake. We always want to add suspense. We don't want people to try to predict what we do... This market needs stabilisation".

OPEC+ pumps about 40% of the world's oil, which means its policy decisions could have a significant impact on oil prices.

A surprise decision to cut supplies in April briefly boosted Brent crude prices by about $9, but prices have since retreated under pressure from concerns about global economic weakness and its impact on demand. On Friday, Brent crude ended trading for the week at $76.

OPEC+ imposed production cuts of 3.66m bpd, representing 3.6% of global demand, including the 2m bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66m bpd agreed in April. Those cuts were valid until the end of 2023, and on Sunday OPEC+ said it would extend them until the end of 2024 as part of a broader deal on production policy agreed after seven hours of negotiations.

In addition to extending current OPEC+ production cuts by 3.66 million bpd, the group also agreed on Sunday to cut overall production targets by a further 1.4 million bpd from current targets to 40.46 million bpd from January 2024.

However, many of these cuts will not be real as the group has lowered targets for Russia, Nigeria and Angola to bring them in line with actual current production levels. For its part, the United Arab Emirates was allowed to raise its production targets by about 0.2m bpd to 3.22m bpd.

THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS: APPLE'S WWDC PRESENTATION

Dear clients,

Shares of Apple Inc. traded at record intraday levels on Monday, but failed to close at an all-time high, although they were on track to do so for most of the session.

Apple shares closed Monday at $179.58, down 0.8 per cent after speaking at its WWDC developer event. The stock was as high as $184.95 ahead of the presentation, surpassing its all-time intraday high of $182.94 set on 4 January 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The smartphone giant has endured a lot since its last record close, facing pandemic-related supply problems and cost pressures from its customer base. But Wall Street seems fairly relaxed about Apple's ability to thrive in an era of shrinking consumer budgets. One analyst noted after the company's latest earnings report that iPhones priced at $1,000 and above have become a glorified essentials purchase.

In addition to traditional products, the company introduced a mixed reality headset and surprised investors with price and timing: the new Vision Pro will cost $3499, when the expectation area was around $3000, and will be released in early 2024, not later this year. By announcing the Vision Pro, Apple is making an attempt to enter a category that hasn't been widely adopted until now.

Overall, it's been a strong year for big tech companies. For 2023, Apple shares are up 38%, while Microsoft Corp. shares are up 40%, Alphabet Inc. — 43%, Amazon.com Inc. — 49% and Meta Platforms Inc. shares gained more than 125%

[Volkov Yuriy]

TRADING SIGNALS: US FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING

Dear clients,

On June 14, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, the body that performs the functions of the Central Bank of America, will take place. The decision on the interest rate will determine the further movement of the market, which draw attention of traders.

How the interest rate situation will develop now, our expert explain:

The Fed may keep the rate at the current level of 5.25% amid falling inflation in the US economy, but will lower GDP forecasts for the next two years and also signal to traders that they should not expect interest rates to fall in the second half of the year, as inflation risks have not gone anywhere. On Wednesday consider buying USDTRY, USDZAR and selling #NQ100, #SP500, #Coinbase.

And also don't wait on the hot offer — trade crypto without swaps until June 20!

IN AND OUT, 5 MINUTES TRADING

Dear clients,

Who'd want to spend a good day, staying in a stuffy room staring at the screen? Especially when all you need is 5 minutes and a good plan. This time we'll be looking at a simple, yet a profitable intraday strategy for everyone.

Join us on June 14 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

PER ASPERA: RECORD PERFORMANCE BY THE NASDAQ AND S&P500

Dear clients,

On Monday the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to their highest closing levels since April 2022, while Oracle hit a record high ahead of quarterly results as investors await inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week. Thanks to gains by market heavyweights Amazon, Apple and Tesla, the S&P 500 has now recovered 21% from its October 2022 lows. Some investors say Wall Street is in the midst of a bull market.

Tesla is up 2.2% and has now risen for 12 consecutive trading sessions, a record for the electric car maker.

Apple and Microsoft are up about 1.5% each, and the two tech companies' shares have gained 41% and 38% year-to-date respectively.

The S&P 500 rose 0.93% to end the session at 4,338.93 points.

The Nasdaq rose 1.53% to 13,461.92 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.56% to 34,066.33 points.

Rising shares of the biggest companies, better-than-expected quarterly earnings and hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle have lifted the indices in recent weeks.

The recent rally has widened to include more sensitive sectors such as energy and industrials, as well as small-company stocks, as data continues to suggest the US economy is resilient despite higher interest rates.

0 OR 1? FORECASTS ABOUT THE FED'S UPCOMING RATES

Dear clients,

The US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates for the first time in more than a year at its June 13-14 meeting, according to economists polled by Reuters, but a significant minority expect at least one more rate hike this year as the economy remains resilient.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signalled in May that the US central bank may soon pause its rate hike cycle to assess the impact of a historically aggressive 500 basis point tightening, raising rates at every meeting since March 2022.

More than 90% of economists, 78 out of 86 surveyed from 2-7 June, believe the Federal Open Market Committee will hold the federal funds rate at 5.00%-5.25% at the end of next week's meeting. The remaining eight expect a 25 basis point rate hike.

Since the last Fed meeting in May, strong economic data and comments from several Fed officials have prompted markets to assume a rate hike at or before the July 25-26 meeting, with previous expectations of a rate cut later this year quickly easing.

This hawkish change in market expectations has helped lift the US dollar to its highest level since March.

The problem is that inflation is not falling fast enough — in April it was 4.4% on the Fed's preferred target and 4.7% excluding volatile food and energy prices. The central bank's inflation target is 2%.

More than a third of survey participants, 32 of 86, believe the Fed will raise rates at least once more this year, including eight who say it will happen in June and 24 who expect a rate hike in July after a pause. Only one predicts a rate hike in both June and July.

Just over 25% of economists, 23 out of 86, predict at least one Fed rate cut before the end of 2023, but this is down from 28% in the previous survey. Markets estimate the probability of a rate cut this year at around 60%.

Less than 60% of respondents to an additional question, 28 of 48, said the world's biggest economy will fall into recession this year, down from more than 70% in a survey conducted just a few weeks ago.

BINANCIAL STRUGGLE

Dear clients,

Investors withdrew about $1.43 billion from cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its US subsidiary as of 11am Eastern Time (1500 GMT) on Tuesday, data provider Nansen reported, a day after a leading US regulator sued both exchanges.

Binance recorded a net outflow of $1.34 billion in cryptocurrency tokens on the ethereum blockchain, while its US subsidiary, Binance.US, recorded a net outflow of $70.8 million, Nansen said on Twitter.

On Monday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Binance, its CEO Changpeng Zhao and operator Binance.US over what it called a "web of deception" to circumvent US laws.

In 13 charges, the SEC alleges that Binance artificially inflated trading volumes, diverted customer funds, failed to restrict US customers' access to its platform and misled investors about market controls.

The lawsuit is the SEC's most significant move against a cryptocurrency company in a major crackdown on the industry this year.

Binance says it is cooperating with the SEC and is "making every effort to answer their questions and address their concerns", including trying to reach a negotiated settlement. "We intend to vigorously defend our platform," the company said in a blog post.

The SEC complaint is the latest in a string of legal challenges for Binance. In March, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued the company for operating an "illegal" exchange and a "bogus" compliance programme.

Zhao said the CFTC's claims were an "incomplete statement of facts".

Another major exchange has encountered similar problems. The SEC filed a lawsuit against Coinbase, accusing it of operating illegally without registering with the regulator. In a complaint filed in federal court in Manhattan on Tuesday, the SEC said Coinbase had been operating as an unregistered broker since at least 2019, conducting cryptocurrency transactions while evading disclosure requirements designed to protect investors.

Global regulators are keeping a close eye on the cryptocurrency world after a series of high-profile crashes wiped out more than a trillion dollars from the market capitalisation of the digital asset industry last year.

Bitcoin has stabilised after yesterday's drop of more than 5 %, its biggest daily drop since 19 April. The world's biggest cryptocurrency last stood at $26,300, up 3.85 per cent for the day.

[Volkov Yuriy]

BREAK TILL DAWN. FED RATE PAUSE

Dear clients,

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but made it clear in new forecasts that borrowing costs may have to rise by half a percentage point by the end of this year as the US central bank responded to a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation.

In a press conference at the end of the central bank's latest meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that US economic and labour market growth was better than expected under the weight of aggressive monetary tightening last year, which will likely lengthen the Fed's fight to reduce inflation, but also allow it to pass with less economic damage.

According to Powell, the pause was made out of caution to allow the Fed to gather more information before determining whether to raise rates again, with the pace of rate hikes now less important than finding the right endpoint that will slow price growth while minimising unemployment growth.

After a year in which many economists and analysts argued that recession was inevitable and the economy was about to crack, according to the Fed's latest quarterly outlook "growth estimates have gone up slightly, unemployment estimates have gone down slightly, inflation estimates have gone up," Powell said.

The Fed's rate hike coincides with an improved view of the economy and hence slower progress in returning inflation to the central bank's 2% target. It is currently more than double that target.

Wednesday's decision interrupted a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes adopted by the Fed in response to the worst inflation outbreak in 40 years with a corresponding set of aggressive moves, including four excessive hikes of three-quarters of a percentage point last year.

A WAY FORWARD. ECB RATE HIKES

Dear clients,

The European Central Bank on Thursday raised the eurozone's borrowing costs to their highest level in 22 years and said that stubbornly high inflation almost guarantees another hike next month and probably beyond.

The quarter percentage point increase was the ECB's eighth consecutive interest rate hike since it badly miscalculated the sustainability of price growth early last year, bringing its policy rate to 3.5 per cent, a level not seen since 2001.

This came at the same time as confirmation that the ECB is winding down its remaining post-crisis stimulus programmes and an unexpectedly sharp increase in core inflation forecasts by bank staff.

"Unless there are significant changes to our baseline forecasts, it is very likely that we will continue to raise rates in July," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a news conference.

The central bank of the 20 euro-sharing countries also said it now expects inflation to remain above the 2% target by the end of 2025.

The bank raised its forecasts for "core" inflation for 2023 and 2024, excluding volatile energy and food, which the ECB monitors closely. Lagarde also issued her strongest warning yet on rising wages and companies pushing up prices.

Inflation in the eurozone has been falling for months, thanks to lower energy prices and the sharpest rate hike in the ECB's 25-year history. However, it remains unacceptably high for the ECB at 6.1% and underlying price growth is just starting to slow down despite signs of stagnant economic growth.

Although opposing economic factors have likely served as weapons for both sides in the ECB Governing Council, the hawkish majority that insists on further rate hikes remains at the helm.

SWAP FREE VACATION

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Summer is the traditional time for holidays, but not for those who work in financial markets.

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A HOT PROFIT! ONLY TILL JUNE 30

Dear clients,

It's time to increase your trade volumes, because we increased the drawdown bonus! Now you get 202% instead of 101%, which will let you open trades that you didn't dare to open before.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

BITCOIN AND ETHER: GROWTH SUPPORTED BY ACTIVE WITHDRAWALS FROM EXCHANGES

Dear clients,

According to the latest information, investors are rapidly withdrawing Bitcoin and Ether from cryptocurrency exchanges. This has caused the balance sheets of these cryptocurrencies to fall to surprising levels over the past five years.

On June 19, the lowest Bitcoin and Ether balances since 2018 were recorded.

This withdrawal has eased the pressure on the market, supporting the growth of both assets after their recent declines. For example, Bitcoin reached a price of $30,000 for the first time in 2.5 months.

We can expect Bitcoin and Ether to continue to strengthen as the withdrawal trend continues. This gives additional confidence to investors and confirms the continued popularity of these cryptocurrencies as a long-term investment.

So now is the best time to actively trade cryptocurrencies! And topping up your trading account with crypto right now, you'll get an extra 10% to your account balance for nothing.

TRADING SIGNALS: BANK OF ENGLAND'S DECISION ON INTEREST RATES

Dear clients,

On June 22, the Bank of England makes a report on the matter of the interest rates, it is one of the most important events affecting the quotes of the pound sterling. Inflation is one of it's main predictors. Using these data, a trader can judge the internal and external economic development of the country, which is especially important when trading pairs that include the GBP.

What to expect and what to pay attention to, tells our leading analyst:

The Bank of England may raise the discount rate by 0.25 p.p. to 4.75% today and signal to traders that further rate hikes are needed due to high inflation in the U.K. economy. A rate hike is negative for the stock market and it is preferable to open a Sell position in the UK #FTSE100 index on Thursday.

During the inflation period, a drawdown bonus is an excellent choice: until June 30, instead of 101%, you get 202% when topping up of 202 USD or more.

[Volkov Yuriy]

AN ENCORE: THE HOTTEST PROMOTIONS MUST GO ON!

Dear clients,

On numerous requests swap-free indices and 202% drawdown bonus are extended until July 19.

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[Volkov Yuriy]

THE UPSIDE GAME. BUILDING GROWTH OF OIL PRICES

Dear clients,

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets weighed on supply cuts in August by leading exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia amid an uncertain global economic outlook.

Brent crude futures were up 34 cents, or 0.46 per cent, to $74.99 a barrel by 0618 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.12 a barrel, up 33 cents, or 0.47%.

Saudi Arabia on Monday said it would extend a voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) until August, the kingdom's state news agency said. Russia will also cut oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.

The cuts would amount to 1.5% of global supply and bring the total number of cuts promised by OPEC+ oil producers to 5.16 million bpd, as Riyadh and Moscow seek to support prices.

US crude stocks were expected to fall by around 1.8m barrels in the week to 30 June, marking the third consecutive week of decline. Industrial stockpile data will be released on Wednesday and official data on Thursday, both of which will be delayed by a day due to a US holiday.

On the macroeconomic front, analysts' forecasts were mixed after business surveys showed a decline in global manufacturing activity due to sluggish demand in China and Europe, and US manufacturing activity fell further in June, reaching levels last seen during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

WRITE CLUB. NEW MESSENGER FROM META

Dear clients,

Mark Zuckerberg on Wednesday directly challenged Twitter with the Threads service, amassing millions of users in a matter of hours, as it seeks to take advantage of the position of its competitor, which is in a significantly weakened state after a series of chaotic decisions by its owner Elon Musk.

"Let's do this. Welcome to Threads," Zuckerberg wrote in his first message on the app, along with a fiery emoji. According to him, 5 million people signed up to the app in the first four hours. Analysts say Threads' tie-up with Instagram could give it a built-in user base and advertising machine. This could siphon off advertising dollars from Twitter at a time when its new CEO is trying to revive its struggling business.

Although Threads launched as a standalone app, users can log in using their Instagram credentials and follow the same accounts, potentially making it an easy addition to the existing habits of Instagram's more than 2 billion monthly active users. According to experts, investors can't help but get excited at the prospect of Meta actually having a "Twitter killer".

Like Twitter, the app contains short text messages that users can tag, repost and reply to, although it does not have the ability to send direct messages. Messages can be up to 500 characters long and include links, photos and videos lasting up to five minutes, according to Meta's blog.

Meta shares rose 3% on Wednesday ahead of the launch, outpacing the rise of rival tech companies.

BITCOIN SUPPORT FUND

Dear clients,

Bitcoin reached its highest level in 13 months on Thursday, rising 3.28% to $31,500.

The world's largest cryptocurrency recently found support thanks to plans by fund managers, including BlackRock — the world's largest asset manager — to launch a US-registered spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Nasdaq has reapplied to list BlackRocks' ETF, according to a statement released on Monday, after the US securities regulator raised concerns about the initial applications.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected about 30 applications for exchange-traded funds over the past decade. However the BlackRock Inc. initiative has ignited interest, and a flurry of new applications and amendments to existing offerings has followed.

TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR JUNE

Dear clients,

On July 7, the Non-farm Payroll, a measure of US industrial employment, is expected to be published. The report greatly influences the movement of American dollar and related instruments.

We will find out what figures are expected this time from our expert:

Strong employment growth in the service sector — the biggest contributor to the US economy — signals positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the American dollar and negative for equity indices, as it leaves the Fed with no choice but to continue its policy of raising interest rates. On Friday consider buying USDZAR, USDCHF and selling AUDUSD, XAUUSD, #SP500, #NQ100.

Get ready for sure with a 300% deposit bonus!

[Volkov Yuriy]

THE CALM BEFORE THE SWARM?

Dear traders!

Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Monday as investors are cautious ahead of fresh economic data from top consumers in the United States and China this week, although an expected drop in crude supplies from Saudi Arabia and Russia capped losses.

Brent crude futures fell 55 cents, or 0.7%, to $77.92 a barrel by 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $73.31 a barrel, also down 55 cents, or 0.7%.

Factory prices in China fell in June at the fastest pace in seven years, government data showed on Monday, as the pace of economic recovery in the world's second-largest economy slowed.

Oil prices rose more than 4% last week to their highest levels since May, climbing for a second straight week after the world's biggest oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, pledged to deepen supply cuts in August.

Experts believe market volatility is fueled by the ongoing tug-of-war between concerns about demand controls by Western economies and OPEC's supply control strategies, affecting the delicate balance of the oil market.

Non-OPEC+ supply is keeping pace with global demand, JPMorgan analysts said in a note, adding that OPEC+ needs to deepen production cuts by another 700,000 bpd in the second half of the year on top of the announced cuts and extend them to 2024.

THE СASTLING OF NASDAQ 100

Dear clients,

Shares of Apple, Microsoft and other heavyweights fell on Monday after Nasdaq Inc said it intends to rebalance the Nasdaq 100 index to eliminate "over-concentration."

Apple's market capitalization fell 1.1% to $2.967 trillion, after surpassing the $3 trillion threshold for the first time on June 30. Shares of Alphabet and Amazon fell more than 2%, while Microsoft and Tesla fell more than 1%.

Wall Street's most expensive stocks declined after Nasdaq said late Friday that it would conduct a "special rebalancing" of the index to "eliminate excessive concentration in the index by reallocating weightings."

The adjustment will be based on shares outstanding as of July 3, and the changes will be announced July 14 and take effect before the market opens July 24.

[Volkov Yuriy]

WHAT'S IN THE NEWS? TIPS FOR A SUCCESSFUL NEWS TRADING

Dear clients,

News are fundamental element of trading and should be treated accordingly. This time, we'll be looking for the best approach in news trading.

Join us on July 12 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

TRADING SIGNALS: JUNE INFLATION IN THE U.S.

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help address one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates. Belief in lower rates has driven bond yields lower, supporting giant tech and growth stocks that have exposure to broad stock indexes.

What to expect this month, our expert explain:

The market is expecting US inflation to fall 0.9 pp to 3.1%, but the final figure could be above consensus forecast on the back of a strong labor market, as job and wage growth has always kept inflation high in the past. On Wednesday, consider buying USDTRY, USDZAR and selling #NQ100, AUDUSD.

Any market shift will prove easier with a 202% drawdown bonus.

[Volkov Yuriy]

DEEP DIVE. THE DOLLAR'S BIGGEST DROP IN A YEAR

Dear clients,

The dollar fell to its lowest level in more than a year on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer price growth slowed in June, indicating the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates only one more time this year.

The dollar index fell to 100.54, the lowest since April 2022, and was last down 1% to 100.55, the biggest daily decline since early February.

Following the inflation report, the dollar also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015. It was last down 1.3% to 0.8675 francs, having previously fallen to a session low of 0.8660, the lowest since the Swiss National Bank de-pegged the Swiss currency in January 2015.

Data showed that U.S. core consumer prices rose just 0.2% in June, compared with forecasts for a 0.3% rise. The monthly increase in core prices was the smallest since August 2021. On an annualized basis, the core U.S. CPI rose 4.8%, below market expectations for a 5% increase. It was the lowest annualized gain in more than two years.

U.S. rate futures continue to show traders overwhelmingly expect a quarter-point increase in the discount rate, to the 5.25%-5.5% range, at the Fed's July 25-26 meeting, but the probability of another rate hike before the end of the year is now around 25%, down from around 35% before the report.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED. A TECH STARTUP FROM ELON MUSK

Dear clients,

Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk launched his long-sought artificial intelligence startup xAI on Wednesday, unveiling a team made up of engineers from the very large U.S. tech companies he hopes to challenge in his quest to create an alternative to ChatGPT.

The startup will be led by Musk himself, who has repeatedly stated that the development of artificial intelligence should be put on hold and that the sector needs to be regulated. Musk has repeatedly voiced concerns that AI could lead to "civilizational destruction."

On Wednesday night on Twitter Spaces, Musk outlined his plan to create safer AI. Instead of explicitly programming morality into its AI, he said, xAI will seek to create an AI that is "as curious as possible."

"If it tries to understand the true nature of the universe, that will be the best I can come up with in terms of AI safety," Musk said. "I think he will be in favor of humanity from the standpoint that humanity is much more interesting than non-humanity."

Musk's new company is separate from X Corp but will work closely with Twitter, Tesla and other companies, according to its official website.

[Volkov Yuriy]

CHARGING AHEAD: TESLA'S NEW SUCCESSES

Dear clients,

Tesla's strategy of boosting sales by lowering prices probably led to its strongest revenue growth in five quarters, while profitability fell to a three-year low in the April-June quarter.

Since late last year, the Elon Musk-led electric car maker has launched a price war to stimulate demand and stifle competition from older automakers such as Ford Motor and Chinese rivals including BYD.

Tesla is expected to report on Wednesday that gross margins fell to 18.9% in the second quarter, according to 19 analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha. That's down from 20.2% in the previous quarter and 25.9% a year earlier.

With electric car sales slowing, Tesla has been aggressively trying to capture a bigger share of the U.S. charger market in an effort to diversify its revenue streams. It has entered into agreements with companies such as Ford Motor and General Motors to use its North American Charging Standard (NACS), allowing its market value to more than double to $880 billion this year. Following these partnerships, several charging companies have announced their intention to adopt Tesla's standard.

While this will not contribute much to second-quarter revenue, which is expected to grow 45.2% to $24.59 billion, analysts predict it will significantly boost the company's earnings going forward.

"IT'S NOT SO BAD": GOLDMAN SACHS ON POSSIBLE US RECESSION

Dear clients,

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said on Monday that the bank is lowering the probability of a US recession starting in the next 12 months to 20%, down from its previous forecast of 25%.

"The main reason for our downgrade is that recent data have reinforced our confidence that a decline in inflation to an acceptable level will not require a recession," the bank said in a research note.

Market expectations for a so-called "hard landing" - a scenario in which interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve drive the economy into recession - were recently challenged by data showing consumer and manufacturing price inflation slowed in June. Slowing inflation is likely to lead to looser monetary policy in the future. Meanwhile, economic activity remains resilient despite the significant increase in borrowing costs since the Fed's rate hike campaign began in early 2022.

As for the current inversion of the Treasury yield curve, which is generally seen as a harbinger of an impending recession, Hatzius said it reflects and simultaneously confirms "overly pessimistic" economic forecasts.

An inverted yield curve usually signals that the Fed will cut rates to stimulate the economy. However, according to a Goldman Sachs economist, there is a "plausible path" for the Fed to cut interest rates just because of lower inflation.

[Volkov Yuriy]

CHANGE IN CASHBACK PROGRAM CONDITIONS

Dear clients,

We would like to inform you about changes in Cashback promotion conditions, now the minimum trade time (MTT) is 3 minutes.

Join to the service, trade and get a spread refund up to $20!

CRYPTO TOP UP BONUSES CONTINUE!

Dear clients,

We are glad to inform you that the deposit promotion has been extended until October 31. Use the cryptocurrency you like and get a profit in every replenishment.

Be sure to check the updated terms and conditions:

1. The promotion is valid from March 9 till October 31, 2023.

2. The amount of the bonus is 5% for each deposit by cryptocurrency up to 500 USD / 500 EUR / 50,000 RUB in the trading account currency and 10% for deposits from 500 USD / 500 EUR / 50,000 RUB in the trading account currency.

3. The bonus is credited to the deposited trading account to the "Balance" field and can be used without limitations but according to the full terms of the promotion. Maximum bonus amount is 500 USD / 500 EUR / 10 MBT / 5000 RUB in the trading account currency.

4. The Company is reserves the right to:

   4.1. Deduct bonus funds if the Client decides to withdraw over 30% of the deposited amount within 60 days after the deposit;

   4.2. Refuse to credit the bonus, limit its size for the Client, and (or) deduct bonus funds at its discretion at any time;

   4.3. Change the terms or the period of the promotion.

5. By recieving the Bonus, the Client confirms their compliance with the terms of promotion.

LINING UP: NEW CRYPTOCURRENCY ETFS UNDER REVIEW

Dear clients,

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has accepted for review spot bitcoin fund applications from six companies, including BlackRock, marking the first step in the process of deciding whether to approve or disapprove the latest batch of proposals.

The SEC also formally recognised applications by Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Fidelity and Invesco to create similar spot bitcoin fund ETFs, with those proposals published in the Federal Register on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The SEC had previously rejected dozens of applications to create spot bitcoin ETFs, saying the proposals did not meet fraud and investor protection standards. But Nasdaq, on which BlackRock proposed to list its ETF, said earlier this month that it was going to address those concerns by partnering with Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, to control trading on the underlying bitcoin market.

The first bitcoin futures ETF was approved in October 2021, helping the volatile bitcoin hit an all-time high of $69 000 in November 2021.

[Volkov Yuriy]

MORE EFFICIENT TRADING WITH DRAWDOWN BONUS

Dear clients,

Good news! The drawdown bonus is also extended until 31 October. Use the extra funds to support your account during drawdown or to increase your trading turnover.

Also pay attention to the updated terms and conditions:

The bonus amount is 101% for each deposit from 101 USD / 101 EUR / 8080 RUB in the trading account currency.
The bonus is deducted from the account in full in case of creating a withdrawal request or transferring funds to another account.

Trade with certainty!

COMING SOON? US RECESSION DATA

Dear clients,

An index designed to track turns in the US business cycle declined for the 15th consecutive month in June, led by weakening consumer sentiment and rising jobless claims, marking the longest decline since the 2007-2009 recession.

The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators, a gauge that helps forecast future economic activity, fell 0.7% to 106.1 in June after a revised 0.6% decline in May.

"Taken together, the data for June suggest that economic activity will continue to slow in the coming months", the organisation's analysts said. The Conference Board reiterated its forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from the current third quarter to the first quarter of 2024.

The Conference Board also noted that the decline in the LEI index is accelerating, with it falling 4.2% in the past six months, down from 3.8% between June and December 2022.

[Volkov Yuriy]

ANALYST EX MACHINA: A CONTEST FROM FRESHFOREX

Dear clients,

The development of artificial intelligence is moving by leaps and bounds; from drawing to weather forecasting, it seems that there is practically no limit to AI capabilities.

But does the machine understand trading? That's what we about to find out, and while we at it, have a bit of a competition.

From 24th to 30th July, register and trade on signals from the AI. The three participants with the largest number of open positions will get $50 to their accounts.

All details are on the contest page.

And keep in mind: the AI only advises, you decide.

Trade intelligently!

A ROUND THE WORLD. CRYPTOCURRENCY FROM THE CREATOR OF CHATGPT

Dear clients,

On Monday, the Worldcoin cryptocurrency project, founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, will launch. The company creating Worldcoin is Tools for Humanity, based in San Francisco and Berlin.

The core offering of the project is the World ID, an account that only real people can get. To get a World ID, a customer registers and personally undergoes an iris scan with a Worldcoin "orb" — a silver ball about the size of a bowling ball. Once the iris scan confirms that the person is real, a World ID is created.

The project has 2 million users during its beta testing period, and with Monday's launch, Worldcoin is expanding its "orbing operations" to 35 cities in 20 countries. As an incentive, those who sign up in certain countries will receive a Worldcoin WLD cryptocurrency token.

The cryptocurrency aspect of World IDs is important because cryptocurrency blockchains allow World IDs to be stored in such a way that privacy is preserved and they cannot be controlled or disabled by any entity.

According to the authors of the project, World IDs will be necessary in the era of generative chatbots with artificial intelligence, such as ChatGPT, which create remarkably similar speech to human speech. World IDs will be able to be used to distinguish real people from AI bots on the Internet.

Major cryptocurrency exchange Binance said it will list Worldcoin, with a tentative opening of trading expected at 09:00 GMT on Monday.

[Volkov Yuriy]

TRADING SIGNALS: US FED MEETING

Dear clients,

On July 26, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, the body that performs the functions of the Central Bank of America, will take place. The decision on the interest rate will determine the further movement of the market, which draw attention of traders.

How the interest rate situation will develop now, our expert explain:

The US Fed may raise the rate by 0.25 p.p. to 5.5% and will signal to the market that the current cycle of rate hikes is coming to an end. Since inflation is falling in the US, we will see the Fed's real interest rate rise, which has always had a favourable impact on the value of the dollar in the past. On Wednesday consider buying USDTRY, USDZAR and selling XAUUSD, XAGUSD.

Gain momentum with 300% deposit bonus!

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: BTCUSD, ETHUSD, XRPUSD

Dear clients,

Ripple effect has jumpstarted the cryptomarket for the altcoin and even lend a shoulder to bitcoin itself. This time, we'll be looking at the cryptocurrencies, their positions and further movements.

Join us on July 26 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them on our site.

THE ECONOMIC PENDULUM IS IN MOTION

Dear clients,

Global stocks rose on Tuesday thanks to a rally in Asia, where the yuan jumped after China pledged to step up support for its gasping economy, while evidence of slowing growth in Europe weighed on the euro.

On Monday, China's top leaders pledged to step up aid to an economy struggling to recover from the crisis and signalled more measures to boost the property industry were on the way.

The MSCI All-World Index rose 0.2% on the back of gains in China's stock market, with the mainland index (.SSEC) up 1.9% and Hong Kong shares (.HSI) up 3% thanks to gains in property stocks, which have been falling due to debt repayment problems.

However, the positive momentum did not carry over to Europe, where stocks and the euro struggled to stay in positive territory as recession fears resurfaced after regional surveys the previous day showed business activity contracted much more sharply than expected in July.

Purchasing managers' indices published on Monday came in below expectations both in the eurozone as a whole and in key countries such as France and Germany, prompting traders to rethink what the European Central Bank might signal about the prospects for a rate hike at its meeting on Thursday.

Macroeconomic data released on Tuesday showed business confidence in Germany deteriorated this month and eurozone loan demand hit a record low in the second quarter as interest rate hikes took their toll, according to an ECB survey.

The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate hike from both the Fed and the European Central Bank this week, but after that, pricing diverges from the rhetoric of policymakers, so the focus will be on their tone and outlook.

[⭐ OrigamiMag]

On 7/25/2023 at 6:39 AM, Volkov Yuriy said:

A ROUND THE WORLD. CRYPTOCURRENCY FROM THE CREATOR OF CHATGPT

Dear clients,

On Monday, the Worldcoin cryptocurrency project, founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, will launch. The company creating Worldcoin is Tools for Humanity, based in San Francisco and Berlin.

The core offering of the project is the World ID, an account that only real people can get. To get a World ID, a customer registers and personally undergoes an iris scan with a Worldcoin "orb" — a silver ball about the size of a bowling ball. Once the iris scan confirms that the person is real, a World ID is created.

The project has 2 million users during its beta testing period, and with Monday's launch, Worldcoin is expanding its "orbing operations" to 35 cities in 20 countries. As an incentive, those who sign up in certain countries will receive a Worldcoin WLD cryptocurrency token.

The cryptocurrency aspect of World IDs is important because cryptocurrency blockchains allow World IDs to be stored in such a way that privacy is preserved and they cannot be controlled or disabled by any entity.

According to the authors of the project, World IDs will be necessary in the era of generative chatbots with artificial intelligence, such as ChatGPT, which create remarkably similar speech to human speech. World IDs will be able to be used to distinguish real people from AI bots on the Internet.

Major cryptocurrency exchange Binance said it will list Worldcoin, with a tentative opening of trading expected at 09:00 GMT on Monday.

Thank you for telling me about WorldCoin. I think we can make big profits with it!

[Volkov Yuriy]

"THE DOORS ARE OPEN". FED ON FUTURE RATES

Dear clients,

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell saying the economy still needs to slow and the labour market to weaken for inflation to return "credibly" to the 2% target set by the US central bank.

The rate hike, the Fed's 11th in the past 12 meetings, set the benchmark overnight interest rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, a level last seen before the housing market crash in 2007 and which hasn't been exceeded in about 22 years.

"The Federal Open Market Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy," the Fed said in a statement that differs little from the June 14 statement and leaves open the central bank's policy options in search of a stopping point for the current tightening cycle.

In addition, central bank officials are no longer forecasting a recession in the US. "So the staff's forecast now includes a marked slowdown in growth starting later this year, but given the recent resilience of the economy, they are no longer forecasting a recession," the Fed chairman said.

Powell made no promises either way: the September meeting, eight weeks away, is considered "live" for another rate hike, although a continued slowdown in inflation and weaker economic data could also prompt policymakers to take a pause.

However, he cautioned against expecting any rate easing in the near future. "We'll be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates, and that won't be this year," Powell said.

ANSWER THE SIGNAL

Dear clients,

We have already started trading on AI signals and have the first results. We are glad to see the positive response among the audience and believe that such activity should be encouraged.

From July 27 to August 1 participating in trading on signals, post photos or videos of trades with hashtags #AIsignals #freshforex on FB and IG, the author of the post with the most likes will get $50 to their account.

Contest terms and conditions:

1. The contest period is from July 27 to August 1, 2023.

2. To participate in the promotion you must:

2.1. Have a real trading account with FreshForex and confirmed personal data. You can open an account at the link. The trading account is required to receive the prize.

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4. The winners of the contest in each social network will receive $50 as a prize for a real trading account with FreshForex. The prize will be credited to the winner's account within 3 business days after the end of the contest and will be available for trading or withdrawal from the moment it is credited.

Show off and win!

ADVERTISING INTELLIGENCE. META'S AD REVENUES

Dear clients,

Meta shares rose nearly 8% on Thursday as an encouraging revenue forecast showed that artificial intelligence is helping the social media giant increase engagement and ad sales even in a volatile economy.

The market value of the company, which owns Facebook, was set to rise by about $60 billion after strong second-quarter earnings prompted 18 analysts to raise their target prices for the stock, which has already more than doubled this year.

Although Meta's 12% growth in ad revenue in the second quarter outpaced Google's 3% growth, earnings reports from both digital advertising giants confirmed a rebound in the sector.

Meta and Google have a combined market capitalisation of around $160 billion in the near term, exceeding the individual market value of around 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 index.

Meta's results were also boosted by improved monetisation of Reels, the short video format that is the company's answer to TikTok. According to CEO Mark Zuckerberg, annual revenue from Reels exceeds $10 billion, up from $3 billion last autumn.

The positive view from analysts confirms that a focus on cutting costs and boosting engagement through artificial intelligence has helped Meta emerge as a Wall Street favourite this year after being derided for much of 2022 for huge spending on the ambitious metaverse.

Meta's accelerating revenue growth has helped allay some fears about an expected surge in costs in 2024 due to legal fees and rising infrastructure costs, which are seen as key to the tech sector's feverish AI race.