official Freshforex Broker - Freshforex.com Bonuses, Promos, Reviews!

[Volkov Yuriy]

Short month for long positions

Dear clients,

The last month of winter, although the smallest, can be the most profitable for you. Many key currencies are entering a transitional period, the opportunity like this should not be missed, and therefore we have prepared an excellent offer for you. For the whole February, make a deposit of any amount and trade USD currency pairs without swaps.

Terms of promotion:

1. The promotion is valid from February 1 to February 28, 2023.

2. When trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF, the Company does not deduct Swap and Swap Free commissions for a rollover of opened positions through the night. The instruments' specification can be found here.

3. Promotion is available for any type of trading accounts.

4. The company reserves the right to change promotion terms and promotion period.

A Simple Secret to Successful Sales

Dear clients,

When people hear of trading secrets, they usually think of complex patterns,charts and theories. But in reality, those can be simple things, yet just as effective. This time we'll be looking at some secrets of a news trading.

Join us on February 1 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

Trading signals: US Federal Reserve meeting

Dear clients,

On February 1, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, the body that performs the functions of the Central Bank of America, will take place. The decision on the interest rate will determine the further movement of the market, which draw attention of traders.

How the situation with rates is developing right now, we will find out from our expert:

The Fed may raise rates by 0.25% and signal to the market that inflation is starting to decline, which will allow in the coming months to stop raising interest rates. On Wednesday, consider buying EURUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD, #SP500.

Get ahead from the start — make a deposit with cryptocurrency and get an additional 10% to your account.

[broforex51]

 Hello FreshForex, I am a trader and I am using scalping as my strategy, I think it is good to join FreshForex as my broker, because the account type is just amazing, now I can do my scalping strategy without requote and rejection, 100% smooth and successful. I like 0 spread account, it support me to do my scalping strategy.

[EuChangeLTD]

I just seen the banner of FreshFresh here on Top Gold Forum!! Nice!! 

@Volkov Yuriy Can you tell us more about how the bonus works?! What are the conditions?!

[Volkov Yuriy]

Hot Winter Spread Sale!

Dear clients,

The resumption of trade with China after a long quarantine is without exaggeration called the most important event of the year in the oil market. The imbalance of supply and demand, together with the revision of oil policy by key countries, is actively provoking a wave of volatility.

Do you want to conquer this wave? We will help you with that!

From February 15 to February 28, all Classic account holders will receive a 66% discount on the fixed spread on the #BRENT and #WTI oil contracts. The spread is reduced by 3 times  — this is a profit of $160 per lot in each trade.

Weekly Outlook: Bitcoin, Ethereum

Dear clients,

Bearish trend is slowing down, so the crypto market should be able to breathe easier. However, there are other things at play. This time, we'll be looking at Bitcoin and Etherium.

Join us on February 15 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

Trading Signals: U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

Dear clients,

February 15 will be announced data on crude oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. Crude Oil Inventories The Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates the weekly increase in barrels of commercial oil held by US firms. Inventory levels affect the price of petroleum products, which in turn affect inflation and other economic forces.

What data is expected this time, we will find out from our expert:

The American Petroleum Institute reported an increase in black gold reserves in US storage facilities by 10.5 million barrels, which is negative for oil prices. The US Department of Energy plans to deliver 26 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve to the domestic market in the spring, which will put additional pressure on prices in the coming months. Today consider selling #WTI, #BRENT, #Exxon.

Two hikes and no cuts: the experts' opinion on interest rates

Dear clients,

The US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least twice in the coming months, with the risk of further hikes, according to most economists in the Reuters poll.

Thus most private sector forecasters are in agreement with central bank' own forecasts and rhetoric, leaving financial market traders only to hope that rates start to fall later this year.

With much stronger-than-expected US employment data earlier this month, Fed policymakers, including the Chairman Jerome Powell, have reiterated a higher-for-longer mantra that market traders have been wrestling with for months.

As inflation still more than doubling the Fed's 2.0% target, 46 of the 86 surveyed economists predicted the US central bank would go for two more 25 basis point increases, not only in March, but also in and May.

That would mean a peak of 5.00-5.25%, 25 basis points higher than most had forecast since November. All 37 people who answered an extra question said the bigger risk was that the federal funds rate could rise even higher.

There was no clear consensus on the Fed's discount rate by the end of 2023. But more than two-thirds of respondents in the latest poll do not expect a cut this year, as inflation is expected to remain above target until at least 2024.

When asked what is more likely to result in a rate cut, 21 economists named a significant reduction in inflation, and 14 saying a significant increase in unemployment.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: Gold, Silver, Gas

Dear clients,

Gas prices in Europe are settling down, but warnings of a cold snap are keeping market on edge. Meanwhile, anticipation of new rate hikes by the Fed is holding gold down. This time, we'll be looking at gold, silver and gas, current and future movements.

Join us on February 22 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

The Shaky Market of Stablecoin

Dear clients,

The $137 billion market could see shifts after New York-based Paxos Trust Company, which issues the Binance stablecoin, said it would stop issuing new BUSD tokens after US regulators designated the asset as a non-registered security.

However, the immediate effect was not negative for the stablecoin market as a whole; in fact, its total value has risen by $2 billion since February 13.

Instead, competitors are trying to capitalize on the woes of BUSD, the world's third-largest stablecoin, whose market value has shrunk from $16.1 billion to $12.9 billion and its market share has fallen from 12.1% to 9.4%, according to CoinGecko.com.

Market leader Tether (USDT) has won the most, increasing its market capitalization by $1.9 billion to reach $70.3 billion since the announcement. Now it controls 52.6% of the stablecoin market from just over 51%.

USD Coin, the second largest stablecoin, rose over $700 million to $42 billion, boosting its market share to 31.3%.

Stablecoins are a key part of the cryptosphere, and their more stable value allows them to be used to facilitate transfers between cryptocurrencies or fiat money. Traders also use these tokens to hedge their positions and hence the decline in market value is due to the drop in liquidity and leverage in the broader crypto market.

Staying Negative: the Future of the Bank of Japan' policy

Dear clients,

While bond investors are betting that the BOJ will change its much-discussed yield curve control policy, they still see new governor Kazuo Ueda sticking to negative rates for now.

Benchmark 2-year government bond yields have fallen since mid-January, while 10-year yields remained at the 0.5% target set by the Bank of Japan.

The central bank has set an interest rate of minus 0.1% on the portion of deposits that commercial banks hold at the Bank of Japan since January 2016. This policy tool has helped keep two- and five-year yields flat, but the BOJ's 10-year yield cap forces it to make unprecedented debt purchases and risks exacerbating market distortions, an issue that the monetary authority says prompted it to take decision to double the yield ceiling in December.

Ueda's previous actions also confirm rumors that he may be in no hurry to reverse his negative rate policy. He voted against abandoning the zero rate policy when he was a board member of the Bank of Japan in August 2000.

Strong demand for Japan's five-year bonds at Thursday's auction also suggests that investors are not particularly worried about the end of the policy of negative interest rates. On sale, the cut-off price was higher than expected, and the demand-to-coverage ratio rose sharply, which is an indication of investor interest.

In the currency market, traders see a peak in perceived volatility around the time of current Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's last political meeting in March, and then a decline until Ueda's first meeting in April.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Get ready for NFP

Dear clients,

Non-farm Payroll is borderline most important trading point of a month. And you really want to be prepared for it. This time, we'll be looking at a simple, but fruitful strategy to use in NFP trading.

Join us on March 1 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

The First Day of Spring Profit: 202% drawdown bonus

Spring is just around the corner and with it comes new trading opportunities. Whether you decide to go uncharted paths or stay on the old beaten road, the main thing is confidence. And to give you double the calm, we double the drawdown bonus!

If you want to support your account or boost it, make a deposit from $202 and get 202% of the drawdown amount.

Meet spring with profit!

A New Challenger. Meta enters the AI race

Meta Platforms Inc has announced last Friday it is releasing a large language model, the core software of a new AI system, to researchers, fueling the AI race as big tech companies rush to integrate the technology into their products and impress investors.

The battle for AI dominance began late last year with the launch of Microsoft-backed OpenAI ChatGPT and prompted tech heavyweights from Alphabet Inc to China's Baidu Inc to pitch in with their solutions.

LLaMA, short for Large Language Model Meta AI, will be made available under a non-commercial license to researchers and organizations associated with government, civil society and academia, according to a promo blog.

The model, which Meta says requires "much less" processing power than other alternatives, is trained in 20 languages, with a focus on Latin and Cyrillic languages.

AI has reinvigorated investments into the tech industry, whose slowdown has led to mass layoffs and cuts to experimental bets.

Meta claims that LLaMA outperforms competitors who explore more parameters or variables taken into account by the algorithm. In particular, the LLaMA version with 13 billion parameters could outperform GPT-3, the recent predecessor to the model on which ChatGPT is built.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Trading Signals: NFP of February

Dear clients,

March 10 is expected to publish data on the Nonfarm Payroll, an indicator of US employment in the industrial sector. The report significantly affects the movement of the US dollar and related instruments.

What values are expected this time, our expert tells:

Leading indicators of employment from ISM for the industry and services indicate the release of positive data on Non-Farm Employment, which is favorable for the growth of the US stock market. On Friday consider buying #SP500, #NQ100, #Exxon, #JPMorgan.

Month of indexes without swaps

The spring thaw is approaching the market. Good news from China, oil volatility and prospects for new realities spur the growth of world indices, which favors market players.

We want to do our part aswell, trade the #DAX30, #DJI30, #NIKKEI and #FTSE100 indices from March 7 to April 2 without swaps!

Indices from different regions participate in the promotion, reflecting the value of the stock market in their zone.

    DJI30 — one of the oldest indicators of the state of the US economy, includes stocks of 30 companies.
    DAX30 is Germany's most important stock index and tracks the performance of the 40 largest German companies based on market capitalization on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
    NIKKEI — Includes shares of 225 of the most actively traded companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
    FTSE100 is an English stock index that reflects the state and development of the UK economy. Includes 100 shares of companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.

"For the Alliance!": The Merging of Microsoft and Activision Blizzard

Microsoft Corp is expected to win EU antitrust approval for its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard by offering licensing deals to rivals, sources close to the matter said.

Microsoft announced its acquisition of Activision Blizzard last January, its biggest deal ever, to take on industry leaders Tencent and Sony for the booming video game market. Sony, in turn, voiced concerns about Microsoft's expanding monopoly.

The main stumbling block has become the popular multi-platform Call of Duty series of games, which, once acquired by Microsoft, will cause an imbalance in the market, according to Sony.

The European Commission, which is due to decide on the deal by April 25, will not require Microsoft to sell assets to get approval, sources said.

Microsoft stated that it is "committed to offering effective and easily implemented solutions in order to remove the doubts of the European Commission." Last month, Microsoft announced it had signed 10-year licensing deals with Nintendo and Nvidia that would bring Call of Duty to their gaming platforms, subject to the agreement with Activision Blizzard being approved.

The deal is facing hurdles from regulators in Britain, where the UK competition agency has asked Microsoft to drop Call of Duty to alleviate the issue, while the US Federal Trade Commission has asked a judge to block the deal altogether.

[broforex51]

 Hello FreshForex, thank you for your free market analysis everyday, it makes me better to decide what should I do next, it is very helpful for me. And I love to follow the webinar either. So I can communicate with another trader, cool !!
 

[Volkov Yuriy]

Up to Day: Intraday strategy for beginners

Dear clients,

Simple is the best, as people tend to say. Indeed, you don't need to play 5D chess with the market to make a profit. This time, we'll be looking at another solid stategy, useful for beginners.

Join us on March 22 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

ETFs, the new instruments for profitable trading

Good news, we have added a new group of instruments — ETF contracts!

Every investor knows the principle of asset diversification. Spreading your capital across different instruments is a direct way to reduce investment risk. Even if the yield on one instrument falls, this does not lead to a complete collapse. However, building a large portfolio and even more so controlling it is a rather difficult task. This is where ETFs come to the rescue.

An Exchange Traded Fund, or ETF, is an exchange-traded investment fund, which can include stocks, bonds of many companies at once, as well as gold, oil, real estate and other valuable property. The fund buys a large, diversified portfolio of assets and then sells it piecemeal. To do this, the fund issues its own shares. That is, by purchasing one ETF share, a trader invests money in several attractive instruments at once. This option is well suited for novice investors who are not yet familiar with the market and\or do not have the funds to make their own portfolio:

#GLD, SPDR Gold Trust is part of the SPDR family of exchange-traded funds managed and marketed by State Street Global Advisors. For several years, the fund was the second largest exchange-traded fund in the world, and for a short time, the largest. Aims to match the return of the fund to the dynamics of the LBMA Gold Price PM index, minus expenses and fees.

#VOO, Vanguard S&P500 is part of the Vanguard Group, the largest provider of mutual funds and the second largest provider of exchange-traded funds. The fund's investment strategy is to follow the S&P 500 index, which includes the top 500 US companies. Therefore, this fund has a high degree of diversification within the US economy.

#IWM, iShares Russell 2000 is a set of exchange-traded funds managed by BlackRock, which acquired the brand and business from Barclays in 2009. iShares Russell 2000 aims to track the investment performance of an index comprised of small-cap US stocks. Most of the fund's assets are invested in shares of financial services, energy and healthcare companies.

#QQQ, Invesco QQQ (Power Shares Trust, Series) is an American boutique investment management firm that manages a family of exchange-traded funds. The company is part of Invesco, which has been selling the PowerShares product since 2006. PowerShares covers and simulates many market indices; for example, PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQ) is designed to reproduce the NASDAQ-100 index. ETF is popular among stock players and is one of the most liquid stock market instruments.

#VEA, Vanguard FTSE DM is another Vanguard Group product aimed at tracking the investment performance of the FTSE Developed All Cap ex US index. This index includes about 1385 ordinary shares of companies from the developed markets of Europe, Australia, Asia, the Far East, with the exception of companies from the USA.

#SCHD, Schwab US Dividend equity — Charles Schwab Corporation is one of the largest US banking companies and one of the largest brokerage companies in the United States. The goal of the fund is to track as closely as possible, before commissions and expenses, the overall return of the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100. This index includes common stocks of the 100 largest US companies, with consistently high dividend yields and fundamentally strong financial performance. The fund invests at least 90% of its assets in stocks and companies included in the index.

The #USO, United States Oil Fund aims to match share price performance with USO's Benchmark Oil Futures Contract index net of costs and fees.

Detailed trading conditions can be found in the CFD Specifications.

We'd also like to remind you about newcomers in the current line of metals; our traders have already tested their strength, XAUGBP is especially popular — the most profitable deal on it was $1698. Why not update the record?

Discover brand new ways to make a profit!
Ahead of the plan: Gold passes the $2,000 threshold

In volatile trading on Monday, gold prices initially fell 1% but reversed course and jumped to their highest level since March 2022 at $2009,59 as investors pondered the impact of measures taken by several central banks to contain the banking crisis and stabilize global markets. financial markets.

Gold prices slipped on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting as expectations rise that the US central bank will slow down its monetary tightening given the turmoil in the banking sector.

A pause in rate hikes could bring gold back above $2000, experts say, but it will need a lower dot chart and a dovish press conference for it to hold those gains. Despite the fact that banking regulators are rushing to strengthen market confidence, the uncertain macroeconomic environment continues to encourage purchases in gold.

Gold is considered a safe asset in times of financial uncertainty, and lower interest rates make unprofitable bars more attractive by lowering the opportunity cost of holding them.

In December last year, Bank of America analysts already predicted a rise in gold prices above $2,000, but the calculation was made for the second half of 2023.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Slow and Steady: A Profitable Strategy for Long Term Traders

Dear clients,

We talk a lot about intraday, but what about those who play the long game? This time we'll be looking at some strategies for a long-term trading.

Join us on March 29 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

Trading Signals: U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

Dear clients,

March 29 will be announced data on crude oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. Crude oil reserves of Energy Information Agency (EIA) are estimated by the weekly increase in barrels of commercial oil held by US firms. Reserve levels affect the price of petroleum products, which in turn affect inflation and other economic forces.

What data is expected this time, we will find out from our expert:

The American Petroleum Institute reported a reduction in black gold reserves in US storage facilities by 6 million barrels, which is favorable for rising oil prices. The oil market enters the "high season", when the consumption of petroleum products increases every week. Today consider buying #WTI, #BRENT, #Exxon.

Slippin' Crypto Market

Bullish Bitcoin has been the surprise winner of the banking crisis. However, investors seeking to increase their rates are faced with a hurdle: lack of liquidity, which can cause prices to fluctuate wildly.

The price of the #1 cryptocurrency has jumped 40% to around $27,700 since March 10, when the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy spread to major markets. However, on the other hand, its liquidity is dwindling.

According to data provider Kaiko, Bitcoin's market depth indicates the asset is at its lowest liquidity level in 10 months, even lower than after the FTX crash in November.

Slippage, a measure of liquidity that describes how much prices move between placing and executing a trade, has also increased. Slippage when buying bitcoins for US dollars on the Coinbase exchange is 2.5 times higher than it was at the beginning of March. Slippage for a $100,000 simulated sell order has doubled in the last month, meaning the average price received per bitcoin is worse than it was a month ago.

Market makers say there is a big network effect and liquidity will remain a problem at least in the short term. The network effect was the collapse of Silvergate Capital and Signature Bank, whose networks have long been used by market makers who increase liquidity through the rapid purchase and sale of tokens for transactions on exchanges.

Further restricting liquidity, Binance — the world’s most liquid crypto exchange — last week ended zero-fee trading for almost all of its bitcoin trading pairs, hitting the ability of market makers to charge higher fees for executing trades on the platform.

The disappearing liquidity can be traced back to the collapse of the FTX exchange and the Alameda Research hedge fund. Alameda was one of the largest liquidity providers in the crypto industry and its bankruptcy left a void that was exacerbated by the 2023 banking sector turmoil.

Although most market participants expect the gradual arrival of new contenders to take over Silvergate and Signature' spot, no one expects a complete replacement to appear overnight.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: Gold, Silver, Natural Gas

Dear clients,

With banks falling, fuel prices soaring and inflation roaring, the markets are going full Pinball. The only safe haven so far would be precious metals. This time, we'll be looking at gold, silver and gas, current and future movements.

Join us on April 5 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

Again with the Charts: FreshForex Forecast Contest

Dear clients,

The contest is back!

Do you have specific data, are confident in your numbers, or just want to test yourself?

From April 5 to 30, join traders on FB and test your trading instincts. The reward will be a prize of $50 to the account.

Forecasts of the first stage are accepted until April 7, 12:00 GMT.

Follow the details of the stages on our official page.

Oil Shock and Awe

Dear clients,

The unexpected OPEC+ production cut on Sunday changed the oil price outlook, bringing $100 a barrel back into view.

Saudi Arabia has taken the first step by pledging to cut its supplies by 500,000 barrels a day. Other members, including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria, followed suit, while Russia said the production cuts it implemented from March to June would last until the end of 2023.

This is a significant decline for a market where, despite recent price fluctuations, supply was limited in the second half of the year. Oil futures rose 8% in New York on Monday, while gasoline also ramped up, adding to inflationary pressures that could force central banks around the world to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Traders were taken by surprise by the move, given that just weeks ago, senior Saudi oil official Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman insisted that OPEC+'s 2022 production quotas "are in place until the end of the year, period."

Previously, the cartel's own data suggested that the group would have to produce more oil in the second half of the year, not less. With the International Energy Agency expecting a surge in demand later this year, the risk of a new inflationary momentum for the global economy has now re-emerged.

After the decision was made, leading oil analysts started talking about oil at $100, some expect that the global balance of supply and demand will be in deficit earlier than expected. This view is reflected in Brent's increasing backwardation, with the premium for on-time deliveries rising over later deliveries, signaling tension. This view is reflected in Brent's increased backwardation, with the premium for on-time deliveries rising over later deliveries, signaling tension.

Options markets are now showing a bullish shift in sentiment. According to ICE Futures Europe, the most popular option on Brent crude over the next 12 months allows the holder to buy futures at $100, equivalent to nearly 140 million barrels of open interest.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Weekly Outlook: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple

Dear clients,

Bitcoin is surely taking ground, while Ethereum is preparing for a huge update. This time we'll be looking the cryptomarket and what to expect of it in the coming weeks.

Join us on April 12 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.
Trading Signals: US March Inflation

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report could help address one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has set the short-term path for interest rates correctly. Belief in rate cuts has driven bond yields down, supporting giant tech stocks and growth stocks that have an impact on broad stock indices.

What you can expect this month, our expert says:

Leading indicators point to declining inflation, which is negative for the dollar and positive for equity markets as the US Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates. On Wednesday, consider buying AUDUSD, #NQ100, #SP500 and selling USDCAD, USDZAR.
"Shanghai" Noon. Major upgrade of Ethereum

Dear clients,

On April 12, the Ethereum network will undergo a technical upgrade that will allow users to withdraw tens of billions of dollars of their own Ether token. Referred to as “Shanghai”, this is a necessary step after the world’s most important crypto platform moved to a less energy-intensive process of ordering transactions. Investors affected by the recent turmoil in the crypto markets are wondering if some Ethereum holders will run when presented with the first opportunity to get their tokens out of the way.

The value of Ethereum fell during the “crypto winter” of 2022, when investors abandoned many digital assets. But the appeal of the underlying Ethereum technology has remained unchanged.

Until September 2022, Ethereum relied on a costly and energy-intensive process known as proof-of-work to order transactions. The situation changed when the technical overhaul known as the "Merge" took an alternative approach - proof-of-stake. People who put up or stake Ethereum can become “validators” of transactions on the Ethereum blockchain and receive income in return, just like deposits in a bank. As of 2020, users can stake their Ether but cannot withdraw it. "Shanghai" will allow them to take out these coins. About 16% of the total supply of Ethereum, worth about $37 billion, was stuck in the staking protocol as of early April.

It is not clear how many users will want to cash out once their Ether is unlocked. The value of the token has fluctuated wildly in the years since staking was first enabled – rising sharply as it grew in popularity among institutional and retail investors, then falling in 2022. At least initially, withdrawal demand is expected to outweigh new Ethereum staking deposits. It could take months for Ethereum holders to withdraw their coins as Ethereum has set limits to ensure that too many people do not withdraw at the same time, leaving it vulnerable to attack.

After the Merge, Ethereum attracted the attention of regulators, including the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which pointed out that some services offering income from the placement of cryptocurrencies amounted to illegal offerings of securities. An upgrade to unlock staked Ethereum may result in increased checks.

[Volkov Yuriy]

The candle is lit! A profitable pin bar strategy

 

Dear clients,

 

The beauty of a pin bar is how simple yet useful it is, always ready to reveal more. This time, we're going back to pin bar strategies.

 

Join us on April 19 at 12:00 GMT.

 

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

Trading Signals: U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

 

April 19 will be announced data on crude oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. Crude oil reserves of Energy Information Agency (EIA) are estimated by the weekly increase in barrels of commercial oil held by US firms. Reserve levels affect the price of petroleum products, which in turn affect inflation and other economic forces.

 

What data is expected this time, we will find out from our expert:

 

The American Petroleum Institute reported a reduction in black gold reserves in US storage facilities by 2.6 million barrels, which is favorable for rising oil prices. The oil market enters the "high season", when the consumption of petroleum products increases every week. Today consider buying #WTI, #BRENT, #Exxon.

All according to Plan

 

Oil prices edged up on Tuesday after falling 2% in the previous session, as stronger economic data from the world's biggest crude oil importer, China, supported the demand outlook.

 

Brent rose 34 cents to $85.10 a barrel at 06:18 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate got 29 cents to $81.12 a barrel.

 

Official data showed that China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, expanding 4.5% year-on-year as policymakers seek to maintain growth after the end of tough lockdown restrictions in December.

 

A notable recovery in the Chinese economy has supported the recent rebound in oil prices, analysts said. In addition, May is the seasonal peak travel period in China and fuel demand is expected to increase very strongly year on year.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that China will account for most of the growth in crude oil demand in 2023.

 

However, the agency also warned that production cuts announced by OPEC+ producers could exacerbate the supply shortfall expected in the second half of the year and could hurt consumers and slow down the global economic recovery.

 

Oil prices also remain under pressure from a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields, analysts at National Australia said in a client note.

 

The US dollar is strengthening along with rising interest rates, and traders are betting that the US Federal Reserve will raise the lending rate again in May, which could dampen hopes of an economic turnaround.

[Volkov Yuriy]

News Flash! Advantages of Incorporating News Into your Trading Strategy

Dear clients,

Unless you are insider, investor or a corporate spy, news are the primary source of information on the market. However, that's only one way to use them. This time, we'll be looking at news strategy and why you should incorporate news into your strategy.

Join us on April 26 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

Soft Shell. Bank of Japan policy

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday stressed the need to maintain a super-loose monetary policy for the time being, but pointed to the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation and wage growth exceed expectations.

“In light of the current economic, price and financial developments, it is appropriate to maintain monetary easing, which is currently being implemented through yield curve control,” Ueda told parliament.

The shape of the Japanese bond yield curve has normalized in part due to falling global yields, Ueda said in response to an opposition lawmaker's question about the drawbacks of prolonged monetary easing.

Ueda reiterated the need to maintain Japan's monetary easing in order to achieve the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner, accompanied by wage increases.

“But if wage growth and inflation accelerate faster than expected and require monetary tightening, the Bank of Japan is ready to respond, for example by raising interest rates,” the governor said.

Ueda's comments come ahead of a two-day BOJ policy meeting starting Thursday, the first meeting he has chaired since he took over the bank earlier this month.

Markets are full of speculation that Ueda will direct the Bank of Japan to phase out his predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda's massive stimulus that has drawn criticism for distorting market prices and hurting financial institutions' profits.

In a sign that he's in no rush to raise rates, Ueda said tightening monetary policy now could push down future inflation, which is already slowing amid peak import costs.
Written by code. Google's Bard Chatbot Update

Google said Friday it will update Bard, its generative artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot, to help people write code for software development as the tech giant seeks to catch up in the fast-paced AI technology race.

Last month, the company began publicly releasing Bard to win back ground from Microsoft Corp.

The release of ChatGPT, a chatbot from the Microsoft-backed startup OpenAI, sparked a leap in the tech sector last year to put AI in the hands of more users.

Google describes Bard as an experiment to collaborate with generative AI, a technology that relies on past data to create rather than identify content.

Bard will be able to code in 20 programming languages, including Java, C++ and Python, as well as help debug and explain code to users, Google said on Friday.

Bard can currently be accessed by a small set of users who can chat with the bot and ask questions instead of using the traditional Google search tool.

The initial launch of the product was rather unsuccessful due to mistakes and poor impression. Last week, it was reported that Samsung and Apple may be phasing out Google Search in favor of Microsoft's AI-powered Bing. This has become an additional incentive for the introduction of AI technologies in Google products.

[Volkov Yuriy]

YELLOW SIGNAL

Why does gold continue to gain popularity?Dear clients,

Now is the best time to invest in gold, at least according to Bank of America. The dollar kept rising after the data on inflation, but is moving towards a monthly decline. Precious metals consolidated last month on "growth fears that led to higher expectations for a U.S. rate cut, lower bond yields and continued banking sector concerns," analysts said.

A weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for foreign buyers. Due to the banking crisis and the threat of a recession, the precious metal is regarded as a reliable defensive asset.

Interest in gold is also actively shown by central banks, only last year demand grew by 20%. In fact, they account for a record 33% of monthly global demand and are buying more gold than at any time since data collection began in 1950.

The buying spree helped lift the price of gold to near-record levels and more than 50% higher than models based on real interest rates suggest. Experts see this as an attempt to get away from the dollar as the dominant currency.

The difficult macroeconomic environment makes gold one of the most reliable investments, and with a drawdown bonus 101%, it is also the most profitable.

[EuChangeLTD]

4 hours ago, Volkov Yuriy said:

YELLOW SIGNAL

Why does gold continue to gain popularity?Dear clients,

Now is the best time to invest in gold, at least according to Bank of America. The dollar kept rising after the data on inflation, but is moving towards a monthly decline. Precious metals consolidated last month on "growth fears that led to higher expectations for a U.S. rate cut, lower bond yields and continued banking sector concerns," analysts said.

A weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for foreign buyers. Due to the banking crisis and the threat of a recession, the precious metal is regarded as a reliable defensive asset.

Interest in gold is also actively shown by central banks, only last year demand grew by 20%. In fact, they account for a record 33% of monthly global demand and are buying more gold than at any time since data collection began in 1950.

The buying spree helped lift the price of gold to near-record levels and more than 50% higher than models based on real interest rates suggest. Experts see this as an attempt to get away from the dollar as the dominant currency.

The difficult macroeconomic environment makes gold one of the most reliable investments, and with a drawdown bonus 101%, it is also the most profitable.

Thank you for this message. I was also thinking to invest in GOLD but I dont know if I should choose physical or digital.

[Volkov Yuriy]

BEHIND THE WALLS: WALL STREET ON THE DECISION OF THE FED

Dear clients,

 

Wall Street was stumped by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

 

In a statement accompanying a quarter-point rate hike, the central bank ditched previous language that said "some additional policy tightening" might be warranted. Chairman Jerome Powell then said banking sector conditions had “generally improved” since early March.

 

But investors still had many questions. Despite Fed officials' forecasts of a mild recession, Powell expects the US economy to grow at a modest pace this year. And while he said rates are "maybe at" a fairly restrictive level, getting back to the 2% inflation target won't be a "smooth process."

 

As Powell spoke, the S&P 500 went up and down, then closing down 0.7%. Treasury revenues fell.

 

The fact that the stock market is having a hard time figuring out where to go next is evidence that this has already been priced in, experts say. Looking ahead, investors want to know what value the Fed will place on tightening lending conditions caused by stress in regional banks.

 

Powell's speech failed to reassure the market, investors heard what they expected, but not exactly what they wanted; the lack of clear guidance from the Fed is also worrisome. The general mood is quite calm, no revelations from Powell have been made and the situation is still developing according to market forecasts. A number of analysts note that the Fed is still set to tighten: they will need confirmation from the data that the monetary policy stance is quite restrictive.

 

The prospects for a pause or rate cut are viewed very cautiously, with particular attention to the possibility of a recession. At the same time, few people believe in further increases, according to analysts, this will require catastrophic inflation.

 

Fed futures showed that the likelihood of a rate hike in June had dropped to around 2%.

 

TRADING SIGNALS: US FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING

Dear clients,

 

On May 3, a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, the body that performs the functions of the Central Bank of America, will take place. The decision on the interest rate will determine the further movement of the market, which draw attention of traders.

 

How the situation with rates will develop now, our expert tells:

 

The Fed may raise the rate by 0.25% and signal to the market that it will not raise the rate at the next meetings, as inflation is declining, which is favorable for economic growth. On Wednesday consider buying AUDUSD, GBPUSD, #NQ100, #SP500.

 

A reversal can quite shake up the market — be ready with a 300% deposit bonus!

[Volkov Yuriy]

GREEN HARVEST

Dear clients,

Apple Inc's results beat expectations on Thursday, demonstrating the tech giant's resilience amid the global economic slowdown, thanks to stronger-than-expected iPhone sales and notable gains in India and other emerging markets.

Shares of the largest US company by market value rose 2% after Apple beat Wall Street's earnings and profit expectations for the quarter on April 1st. The company's results contrast with disappointing performance from major chip makers due to a slower-than-expected recovery in China's economic growth.

Apple executives on Thursday said gross profit for the current quarter will be better than forecast, despite an expected drop in revenue due to the resolution of supply chain problems.

Apple said sales for its fiscal second quarter ended April 1 fell 2.5% to $94.8 billion, beating expectations for a 4.4% decline, according to data from Refinitiv. Earnings remained unchanged at $1.52 per share, compared to $1.43 per share forecast.

iPhone sales rose 1.5% to $51.3 billion, beating expectations for a 3.3% fall, even as consumers and businesses cut spending due to rising inflation. Analysts expect growth of 2.1% to $84.7 billion in the third financial quarter, which ends in June.

Apple shares outperformed most Wall Street stocks in 2023, up 28% year-to-date. Investors view the company as a protective measure during a period of economic uncertainty.

Apple raised its dividend to 24 cents per share from 23 cents a year ago. The Board authorized a $90 billion share buyback program, just as it did a year ago.

Investors are still waiting for the company's next big product. Bloomberg reported that the iPhone maker could unveil a mixed reality headset as early as next month when it holds its annual Software Developers Conference. The company recently announced new services such as a high yield savings account.

TRADING SIGNALS: THE BANK OF ENGLAND'S INTEREST RATE DECISION

Dear clients,

On May 11 the Bank of England, the key financial authority of Great Britain, will make a decision on the interest rate, which is among the most important events affecting the pound sterling quotation.

Our expert comments on how the situation with the rates develops:

The Bank of England may raise the rate by 0.25% and signal to the market the need for further interest rate hikes at the summer meetings due to high inflation in the United Kingdom economy. On Thursday consider buying GBPJPY, GBPUSD, GBPCHF.

On any twists and turns, confidently keep your balance with a drawdown bonus 101%!

[Volkov Yuriy]

ELECTIONS IN TURKEY
12 May 2023

Elections in TurkeyDear traders!

We would like to draw your attention to the fact that presidential elections in Turkey will be held on May 14, 2023. This event may provoke a sharp increase in volatility of Turkish Lira instruments and, as a consequence, lead to increased trading risks.

As we care about our clients, we strongly recommend all traders to be more attentive and also: 

Maintain a margin level of at least 500%;
Use protective Stop-loss orders;
to adjust the volume of current open positions at their own discretion, if necessary.

It should be noted that in case of significant increase of volatility on financial markets with changing conditions at the liquidity providers of the company the following is possible: increase of spreads and levels of orders setting, change of margin requirements for any instruments both for previously opened positions and for new ones, introduction of "Close only" mode or suspension of trading in accordance with the regulatory documents of the company.

Please consider this information when planning work on the financial markets.

DOWNWARD SPIRAL. A LONG DROP IN OIL PRICES

A long drop in oil pricesDear clients,

Oil prices fell Friday, setting a fourth weekly decline, as renewed economic troubles in the U.S. and China revived worries about fuel demand growth in the world's two largest oil consumers.

Brent crude futures fell 48 cents, or 0.64%, to $74.50 a barrel by 06:35 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate, on the other hand, lost 39 cents, or 0.55%, to $70.48.

Both benchmarks will fall about 1.1% over the week, marking the longest streak of weekly declines since November 2021.

With negotiations over the U.S. government debt ceiling deadlocked and renewed fears that another regional bank is in crisis, fears that the U.S. will enter a recession are growing. A decline in new corporate loans in China and weaker economic data released there earlier in the week raised doubts again about the stimulation of oil demand growth as the country recovers from COVID restrictions.

The price rose earlier Friday, after falling during the previous two sessions, on some demand expectations following comments from the U.S. Secretary of Energy that the States might buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The U.S. government has said it will buy oil when prices are at or below $67-72 a barrel at all times.

However, negotiations to raise the $31.4 trillion U.S. federal debt limit may not reach an agreement in time to prevent a default on the national debt, which could cause serious market turmoil. China's consumer price data for April rose slower than expected and factory price deflation has deepened, suggesting more stimulus is needed.

The oil market largely ignored the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) global oil demand forecast for 2023, which projected demand growth in China, the world's biggest oil importer.

HERE WE GO AGAIN: THREATS TO THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

Dear clients,

A prolonged period of economic downturn in the U.S. will cause tech stocks to plummet at a time when they are attracting a lot of investor money, strategists at Bank of America Corp. say.

Michael Hartnett's team expects the recession to "crack credit and tech" just as it did in 2008, according to Friday's note.

Investors poured $3.8 billion into technology stocks in the week ended May 10, the largest inflow since December 2021, BofA reported, citing data from EPFR Global. On the other hand, $2.1 billion was pulled out of financial stocks, the biggest buyout since May 2022, amid turmoil at regional U.S. banks.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is up 22% this year as investors expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy soon, easing pressure on the rate-sensitive sector. And while earnings in this sector will continue to fall from last year, traders already expect a recovery in 2024.

Hartnett, who correctly predicted last year that recession fears would cause stocks to pull back, warned that the U.S. central bank was unlikely to pause rate hikes amid high inflation, as well as low unemployment and presidential approval. That echoes the views of Bloomberg Intelligence strategists, who view the likelihood of weakening tech, media and telecom stocks as they "face the reality of longer-term interest rate hikes and a softening of the earnings outlook."

Hartnett thinks negative wage data will be a buying signal for cyclical economic-related stocks, such as tech stocks, in 2023. The U.S. labor market has proven resilient, with hiring and worker wage growth accelerating in April.

Other notable flows over the past week included a slowdown in cash inflows - $13.8 billion went into that asset class. At the same time, Treasuries saw the largest inflows in the past six weeks, with $6.3 billion. U.S. and European equity funds bought $2.7 billion and $2.2 billion each, respectively.

[Volkov Yuriy]

"EVERY BIT HELPS". RECORD PERFORMANCE OF US TREASURIES

Dear clients,

Foreign buying of US Treasury bonds in March rose to the highest level in more than two years, Treasury Department data showed on Monday, as investors bought government debt amid bank stress during the month.

US Treasuries rose to $7.573 trillion in March, up about $230 billion from $7.343 trillion the previous month. Monthly Treasury bond accumulation in March was the highest since June 2021, analysts at TD Securities said.

According to the cited data, March was particularly significant as it was a time of volatility in the banking sector. The most interesting point was the huge amount of treasury bond purchases. Investors were de-risking at the time because of banking stress. There was a lot of buying on the Chinese side, a lot of buying on the Japanese side. There were interesting purchases from the UK side or via the UK, indicating purchases by hedge funds.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield started March at 3.996%, falling by 50 basis points to 3.49% by the end of the month. In October last year the yield on 10-year US Treasuries reached a 15-month high of 4.338%.

Foreign inflows into Treasuries were $35.8bn per trade in March, up from $57.6bn in the previous month. US equities were also bought by foreigners, with inflows of $36.1bn following net sales of $16.2bn in February and outflows of $27.5bn in January.

US residents, meanwhile, increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net purchases of $22.8bn compared with net sales of $8.3bn in February.

Overall, net purchases of long-term overseas securities totaled $133.3bn in March, up sharply from February's inflow of $56.6bn, the data showed.

PLATINUM DROUGHT

Dear clients,

Rising demand from automakers, industry and investors will push the global platinum market into the biggest deficit in years, three industry reports predict.

The reports highlight the changing fortunes of platinum and its cognate metal palladium, which are used mainly in vehicle exhausts to help neutralise harmful engine emissions. For many years, growing demand and shortages of palladium have pushed prices upwards, while low consumption and a more abundant supply of platinum have kept prices low.

Two reports released on Monday suggest that if palladium remains in short supply this year, the platinum supply shortfall will be greater. Automakers are switching from palladium to platinum as a cost-saving measure, heavy-duty vehicles with a high platinum content are on the rise, while zero-emission electric cars are making their way into the palladium-focused light vehicle market. Platinum is also being supported by industrial and jewellery consumption, while palladium demand is almost entirely dependent on the automobile sector.

The World Platinum Investment Council forecast a platinum deficit of 983,000 oz, the highest since the 1970s, following last year's surplus of 854,000 oz.

Meanwhile, net platinum holdings in the ETF increased by 43,000 ounces in Q1 '23, reversing six previous quarters of net disinvestment. The board believes that the revised 2023 deficit forecast of almost 1 million ounces based on historical data is likely to attract additional investor interest in bullion and coins as well as physical asset-backed ETFs.

FOR A RAINY DAY. HOW WALL STREET IS PREPARING FOR A POSSIBLE DEFAULT

Dear clients,

As negotiations to raise the debt ceiling of the USD 31.4 trillion government debt intensify, Wall Street banks and asset managers have started to prepare for the consequences of a possible default.

The financial industry has prepared for such a crisis before, most recently in September 2021. But this time, the relatively short timeframe for a compromise has bankers on their guard, said one senior industry official.

US government bonds underpin the global financial system, so it is difficult to fully assess the damage a default would cause, but executives expect strong volatility in equity, debt and other markets.

The ability to trade in and out of treasury bonds on the secondary market will be severely limited. Even a short-term breach of the debt ceiling could lead to a spike in interest rates, a plunge in equity prices and a breach of credit documentation and leverage agreements.

Banks, brokers and trading platforms are preparing for disruptions in the treasury market as well as wider volatility.

This typically includes planning for how payments in treasury securities will be made; how the critical funding markets will react; ensuring there is sufficient technology, staffing and cash to handle large trading volumes; and checking the potential impact on contracts with clients.

Large bond investors have warned that maintaining a high level of liquidity is important in order to withstand potential sharp fluctuations in asset prices and avoid having to sell at the most inopportune time.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), a leading industry group, developed an action plan that details what Treasury bond market participants — the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC), clearing banks and Treasury bond dealers — should do in the run-up to and on the days of a possible Treasury bond payment miss.

SIFMA considered several scenarios. The most likely scenario is that the Treasury would buy time to pay bondholders by announcing on the eve of the payment that it would reschedule these securities, extending them one day at a time. This would allow the market to continue functioning, but no interest would likely accrue on the deferred payment.

In the most destructive scenario, the Treasury does not pay any principal or coupon and does not extend the maturity date. The outstanding bonds would no longer be tradable and could not be transferred through the Fedwire Securities Service, which is used to hold, transfer and settle Treasury bonds.

Each scenario is likely to cause significant operational problems and will require daily manual adjustments to trading and settlement processes.

In addition, in past periods of confrontation over the debt ceiling issue — in 2011 and 2013 — Fed staff and policymakers developed their plan, which is likely to serve as a starting point, with the last and most sensitive step being the complete removal of defaulted securities from the market.