xtreamforex26 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 How to Profit From US Inflation: Investment Options US inflation is expected to soften slightly – as markets have positioned themselves for it to do so. But that also presents opportunities for traders. The inflation prints as a proxy for Fed policy. Another hot report decreases the odds of a slower pace of Fed tightening, likely boosting the dollar whilst weighing on Wall Street, commodities and all other currencies. Whilst a softer inflation report keeps hopes alive that the big hikes are behind us and send dollar lower. The US dollar index has held above a key support zone around 109.96, which comprises of the October 2002 high, October 2022 low and bullish trend line. A bar bullish reversal has also formed to suggest a swing low is in place, and with it comes the potential to head back to the monthly pivot point just beneath 112. At this stage it is equally open for it to top out, roll over and break trend support as it is breaking back above 112. But for now, the near term bias remains bullish whilst prices hold above this week’s low. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 US Consumer Sentiment and Elections Officially which party has won control of the Congress is still not known. The trends and projections, the results are pretty much in line with what was expected. Republicans take control of the House, but by a smaller margin than expected. And control of the Senate is still unknown, and will likely come down to a run-off election in Georgia. The initial reaction from the markets wasn’t favorable, likely because of the associated uncertainty. Investors don’t like knowing what’s coming, and with control of the Senate down to a single race that had less than a percentage point of margin, doesn’t inspire confidence. Additionally, Republican control by a small margin means that maintaining consistency will be harder. It only would take convincing a small number of Representatives to change legislative outcomes. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 United Kingdom Inflation Rate The UK GDP revealed that the economy shrank by only 0.2% in 3rd Quarter, which means that a contraction of more than 0.55% may be needed in the last three months of the year for the BoE’s forecast of a 0.75% contraction during H2 2022 to materialize. Yet, investors dragged their rate-path projections lower. The probability for a 50bps hike at the December gathering renamed near 80%, but the implied terminal rate was lowered to 4.47% from 4.6%. The jobs report is forecast to show that the unemployment rate held steady at 3.5% in September and that the average weekly earnings excluding bonuses have accelerated. With an inflation rate at 10.1% during that month, real wages likely stayed well into the negative territory and disposable incomes at record lows. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 15, 2022 Share Posted November 15, 2022 AUD/USD – Australian Dollar US Dollar The Australian dollar is in negative territory, after posting huge gains last week. In the European session, AUD/USD was trading at 0.6690, down 0.22%. US Dollar took a nasty spill last week, and the Australian dollar made the most of it, gaining 3.6%. The US dollar was slammed after a soft inflation report, with headline and core inflation slowing in October and beating the forecasts. This lit up risk appetite and sent the Australian dollar to its highest level since September 22nd. The soft inflation report had such a strong effect on the greenback because it has raised expectations that the Fed will ease up on its rate tightening. After four consecutive hikes of 0.75%, the markets have now priced in a 0.50% increase at the December meeting. That would still represent an oversize hike, but investors have been looking for a reason to rush into stocks and the drop in inflation provided that excuse. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Markets Position, The lower-than-expected US inflation The lower-than-expected US inflation print simply extended with economic data serving as an accelerator. European stocks add a normal 0.6% but US indices open with very solid 0.9-2.5% gains. The US NY Empire manufacturing index surpassed the bar with ease, coming in at 4.5 vs a -6 consensus. But new orders turned negative again and the outlook for six months ahead turned deeper below zero from -1.8 to -6.1. Financial markets definitely also spotted the PPI easing by more than expected. Headline factory inflation for September was revised lower to 8.4% and slowed to 8% vs 8.3% expected. Core gauges retreated from 7.1% to 6.7% and 5.6% to 5.4%. All of them are still at elevated levels but similar to last Thursday’s CPI, that’s of no importance to markets who just want to see pressure decline, both on prices and on the Fed. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 US Consumer Remains Strong Equity markets in Europe are back in the red yesterday, while the US looks largely unchanged around the open on Wall Street. Reports of missile strikes in Poland on Tuesday naturally caused a shudder in the markets. The prospect of a sudden and unexpected escalation in the war in Ukraine, particularly involving a NATO state, doesn’t bear thinking about but it’s almost forced to and under the circumstances, the reaction was fairly modest. It could have been much worse but investors appear to have come to the view that it was a situation that would be quickly de-escalated which is what occurred despite initial reports not looking good. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Japan’s Inflation hits the ‘40-year high Despite the BOJ’s best efforts to contain inflation, prices are indeed rising. Nationwide inflation rose to its highest levels since 1984 at 3.7% y/y and core inflation is also at 3.6%. If food and energy are excluded, CPI is now 1.4% y/y- which is its highest since 1998 we exclude the pre-emptive buying ahead of 2015’s tax hikes. Services PPI is down to 9.1% but historically high after peaking at 10.2% last month. At 3.7%, nationwide CPI is nearly twice their 2% target. The BOJ were relatively late to the 2% inflation bandwagon by introducing their 2% target in January 2013. Of the 118 months since it was introduced, only 16.1% of them have been above 2%. There was a 12-month period from April 2014, and more recently inflation has been above 2% since April this year and still rising. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 RBNZ seen raising rates by historic 75 bps Whilst there has been some less expectations that inflation around parts of the world have topped out, recent data for New Zealand is remining us that inflation can remain at elevated levels for longer than anyone would like. CPI rose 2.2% q/q, up from 1.7% and well above the 1.6% consensus. Annual CPI rose 7.2% y/y – slightly below the 7.3% peak – but if the quarterly is trending higher then it can send the annual higher too. Labor costs have risen to a record high of 3.8% y/y and, whilst the quarterly read pulled back from its record, at 1.1% q/q labor costs remain quite elevated from its long-term average of 0.01%. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 FOMC Minutes, Fed Hiking Rates slowly At the November 2nd FOMC meeting, members unanimously agreed to hike the Fed Funds rate by 75bps to bring the key rate to 3.75%-4.0%.The statement from the meeting said members agreed that ongoing rate hikes were necessary until rates were “sufficiently restrictive”. In addition, the statement noted that “in determining the pace of rate hikes, we will consider cumulative tightening, policy lags and economic and financial developments”. However, during the press conference which followed, Fed Chairman Powell stated that the incoming data suggests that the ultimate level of rates will be higher than previously anticipated. The FOMC Minutes released on Wednesday showed that a substantial majority of officials said a slowing in the pace of rate hikes would be appropriate soon. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 EUR/JPY Eyes Breakout – Xtreamforex The US out on holiday, there’s not much point in discussing the dollar. Instead, something that could move during the Asian hours. The Japanese yen. After being the weakest of major currencies for an extended period this year, the yen has stormed back against the dollar, along with equities, gold and other risk-sensitive assets. Wednesday’s publication of less hawkish Fed minutes and weaker-than-forecast US business activity data further fueled speculation the Fed is going to slow down its rate increases and potentially pause in early 2023. As the USD/JPY slumped, other yen pairs have started to move lower with it – including the EUR/JPY – albeit to much lower extent. This is because nothing has changed in terms of the Bank Of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy. Thus, the USD/JPY has been hit because of dollar weakness than yen strength. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broforex51 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 AUDNZD today as we see here, the price is still sideways but it seems to be make a new bullish trend, so it is better if you open buy position to follow the trend, you can open buy position when the price breaks resistance area 1.0808 with potential target up to next resistance 1.0844 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 This week’s currency pair, USD/CNH This week will bring a lot of US macroeconomic data and speech from US Fed Chairman Powell, which should give the markets a clearer direction of where the Fed may be headed next regarding monetary policy. Powell speaks at the Brookings Institute on Wednesday. The topic is the economy and labor market. The statement after the November 2nd FOMC meeting stated that “ in determining the pace of rate hikes, we will consider cumulative tightening, policy lags, and economic and financial developments”. The markets took this to be dovish. However, in the press conference that followed, Powell said that the incoming data suggests that the ultimate level of rates will be higher than previously anticipated. However, the pace of tightening is not as important as the terminal rate. Markets took this to be hawkish, Traders will be looking for Powell to clarify these statements and try to determine if the Fed will hike by 50bps or 75bps at the December meeting. In addition, the US will release the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Core PCE. Expectations are for a YoY print of 5% vs a September reading of 5.1%. If this number is stronger, the Fed may feel comfortable leaning towards a 75bps hike in December. The US will also release Non-Farm payrolls on Friday. Expectations are for a print of 200,000 vs a previous reading of 261,000. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Australian inflation fell but just ‘weight’ a minute Australian inflation rose only to 6.9% y/y, down from a peak of 7.4% and lower than the 7.5% expected. Housing, food and non-alcoholic beverages and transport were most significant contributors. CPI rose 0.2% m/m, below its long-term average of 2.5%. The RBA will be happy to hear that inflation was much lower than expected, even if it does remain historically high. But the ABS report also highlighted that they performed their annual weight adjustment to the CPI basket, and that inflation would have been 7.1% if last year’s methodology was used. But even a move down from 7.4% to 7.1% is noteworthy as it leaves the potential that inflation has in fact peaked. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Powell’s Brooking November 2nd FOMC Press Conference In Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference after the FOMC meeting on 2nd November, he said that incoming data suggests that the ultimate level of rates will be higher than previously anticipated. In addition, he noted that, how high rates rise is more important than the pace of tightening. At the time, the markets took this to be hawkish as it was the first time Powell mentioned rates would be higher than anticipated and that the pace was not as important as the terminal rate. Inflation and the labor market at the Brookings Institute. Powell repeated many of the same comments from 2nd November, while adding that the time for moderating the pace of rate hike increases may come as soon as the December meeting. This was now seen as dovish, as Powell is basically telling the markets that the FOMC will Only hike by 50bps in December . Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Consensus is for the RBA to hike by 25bp tomorrow What has happened since the last RBA meeting:- 10th November: Australia’s Central Bank says nearer to point when it can wait on rates. CPI fell to 6.9% y/y, down from 7.4% and beneath the 7.5% – suggesting inflation has peaked. Governor Lowe reiterated his belief that the economy can have a soft landing. PMI’s continued south, business sentiment has been flat. Consumer inflation expectations hit a record high according to one survey. OIS curve is pointing lower as the case for a higher terminal rate diminishes. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Gold Falls Victim to Strong US Data Gold has sold off thanks to a rebound in US dollar and bond yields. The fact that the yellow metal has turned lower from a key level makes today’s reversal eye-catching as the chart suggests that at least a temporary top may be in for now. Gold fell along with the major currency pairs today as the dollar found support on the back of some stronger-than-expected US macro data. Factory orders surged by more than expected, rising 1% month-on-month, while the closely-followed ISM services PMI came in at 56.5 compared to 53.3 expected and 54.4 last. With US data continuing to remain largely positive, some investors are starting to re-question the market pricing of the terminal interest rates in the US, currently priced in at just below 5%. If incoming data continues to remain favorable, then inflation is likely to persist longer and that may encourage the Fed to be even more reluctant to pause its hiking early in the first half of 2023. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 The Australian Q3 GDP Economy | Xtreamforex Australian economy expands by 0.6%, a little softer than expected. The impacts of high inflation and higher interest rates are becoming apparent – notably, the real estate sector on lower turnover subtracted 0.2ppts from activity in the period. The Australian economy expanded by 0.6% in the September quarter. That was a little softer than anticipated, market median 0.7% and Westpac 0.8%. Annual growth is 5.9%. The level of activity is 6.5% above levels prior to the pandemic, at the end of 2019. The Real Estate sector – in the form of ownership Transfer Costs plunged by -11.2%, subtracting 0.2ppts from activity. We had allowed for a more modest fall, recent quarterly outcomes have been -1.1%, -2.5% and -2.1%. This provides further evidence that the Australian economy is in transition. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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xtreamforex26 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 US CPI Preview: CPI To Remain Elevated On Tuesday, December 13th , the US will release its CPI reading for November. Expectations are for the headline print to come in at 7.6% YoY after a surprisingly lower than expected October print of 7.7% YoY. If the print is in-line with expectations, it would be the fifth monthly decline in a row after peaking in June at 9.1% YoY, as well as, the lowest reading since January! In addition, the Core CPI print for November is expected to be 6.2% YoY vs a previous reading of 6.3% YoY. The result for the Core print was also a surprise in October, as economics expected a reading of 6.5% YoY. Could these results affect the FOMC’s decision as to how much it should hike rates on Wednesday ? The Fed last met on September 21st. By the time the FOMC meets on December 14th , it will have seen the September, October, and November CPI prints. The October print was much lower than expected. In addition, the Fed has seen Core PCE prints for September and October. The September Core PCE reading was 5.1% YoY vs an expectation of 5.2% YoY and a prior reading of 4.9% YoY. The October print was 5% YoY vs an expectation of 5%. In addition, the Fed still sees the labor market as tight. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee Preview The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will complete its two-day meeting tomorrow. The committee will release its monetary policy statement and Summary of Economic Projections at 2:00pm ET, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference starting 30mins later at 2:30pm ET. Most traders expect the central bank to downshift to a 50bps interest rate hike this month after four consecutive 75bps rate hikes and 375bps of increases since March, the most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in four decades. According to the CME’s Fed Watch tool, Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in about 80% odds of a 50bps rate hike, with an outside chance of yet another 75bps hike. Additionally, the Fed is expected to continue to allow up to $60 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities to mature and roll off its balance sheet per month. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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