Daily Forex News by XtreamForex.com

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1169.

EUR/USD's may have a hard time extending preceding three week's rally, courtesy of warning Brexit optimism. The common currency may face selling pressure if the European Union announces retaliatory tariffs on imports from the US.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1150 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1146. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1164 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1168.

AUD USD

AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6855

•          AUD/USD remains buoyant in Asia as hopes recede of an early RBA rate cut

•          Bolstered by last week's upbeat AU jobs data, increasingly gloomy US data

•          Australia home prices keep rising as auctions heat up in boost for economy

•          Chance of Nov rate cut pared back to just 17% compared to 34% a week ago

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6842 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6839. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6854, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6857.

USD JPY

USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 108.42

Although 200-day SMA becomes the key upside for USD/JPY, the quote refrains from further declines while taking rounds to 108.50 during early Monday. The pair is seesaws around four day low.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.32 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.27. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.50, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.55.

For more information: https://xtreamforex.com/

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of USD/CAD and EUR/USD Currency Pair

USD CAD

USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3048.

USD/CAD is trimming gains on reports calling a victory for Canada's PM Trudeau. The pair may come under pressure if Trudeau forms a minority government with NDP's support.

Canada Retail Sales m/m show changes in the value of goods sold in retail stores in the specified month compared to the previous month. The indicator is calculated based on statistics from several thousand retail stores, and the data is then extrapolated to the whole country.

The indicator evaluates the consumer activity and inflation. The indicator growth can have a positive effect on CAD quotes.

Canada Core Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in retail sales in the reported month compared to the previous one. The indicator is calculated based on statistics from retail stores of different types and sizes. The index calculation does not include sales of autos and spare parts.

Retails Sales are an indicator of consumer activity in Canada, and an important component of national GDP. The indicator growth can have a positive effect on CAD quotes.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3077 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3063. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3123 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3137.

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1148.

·         Positive risk extends in Asia, E-mini S&P +0.1% and AsiaxJP stocks +0.3%

·         Flat in a low key 1.1147/1.1156 range - fundamentals unchanged look to techs

·         Charts - daily momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 MAs head higher - bullish setup

·         Sustained cloud break, 1st since July - 1.1104 horizontal cloud top supports

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1142 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1132. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1172, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1182.

Important Economic Events of the Day

·         CAD: Retail Sales m/m

·         CAD: Core Retail Sales m/m

·         USD: Existing Home Sales

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

 

[broforex51]

 

AUDUSD today as we see right now, AUDUSD is going bearish, so the best option is to sell AUDUSD, so you can sell it when the price touch resistance area at 0.68394 with potential target up to 0.68139

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of EUR/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1021

·         Early bounce on US data gives some relief to longs

·         Pair heavy on safe haven flows but holds above 61.8 Fib of 1.0879-1.1180

·         Daily RSI diverges & bull hammer forms, daily techs warn shorts

·         Monthly RSI still falling, says downside momentum could resume

·         Global growth concerns, soured risk could sink EUR/USD 

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1010 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0972. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1132 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1170.

USD JPY 

USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 108.39. 

·         USD/JPY's breaks key props at 108.50 , close is key

·         IMM USD/JPY specs long largely above 108 are at risk on 107.89/99 break

·         Treasury yields sliding faster than JGBs, '20 Fed cuts pricing back in

·         USD/JPY's topping formation reinforced by AUD/JPY's reversal

·         Risk flows could change on a dime if trade deal gets completed, signed

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.57 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.56. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.59, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.60.

Important Economic Events of the Week (11 Nov, 19 to 15 Nov, 19)

·         USD: Retail Sales m/m

·         GBP: Retail Sales m/m

·         NZD: Electronic Card Retail Sales m/m

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

 

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of AUD/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pair

AUD USD

AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6784

·         Flat in a quiet tight 0.6785/0.6795 range as options contain

·         0.6785-95 1.1BLN and 0.6900 500M strikes dominated in Asia

·         Risk bounce in Asia after a soft week, Nikkei +0.6%, AsiaxJP +0.3%

·         Charts - momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head south - bearish setup

·         Dip recently stalled at 0.6769, which remains pivotal and vulnerable

·         NY 0.6783 low and earlier 0.6795 high initial support and resistance

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6786 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6785. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6788 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6789.

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2913.

·         Cable saw steady interest and trades +0.1% in a 1.2903/1.2921 range

·         Conservatives to raise property purchase tax for non-UK residents

·         A revenue raiser that will be popular with UK voters

·         FT's poll tracker, Conservatives hot favorites, +13pts from +11 over Labour

·         Charts - 5, 10 & 21 DMAs gently edge higher - modest topside bias

·         Six week 1.2770/1.3012 range looks set to extend unless the USD trends

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2917 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2916. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2923, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2924.

 Important Economic Events of the Week (18 Nov, 19 to 24 Nov, 19)

·         CAD: Core Retail Sales m/m

·         EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speech

·         EUR: GDP q/q

·         SGD: GDP q/q

·         USD: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of AUD/USD and NZD/USD Currency Pair

AUD USD 

AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6777.

FED Chair Speech affects USD depending on the speech rhetoric. If the speech is seen as an intention to raise the rates at the next FOMC meeting, this has a positive impact on USD and vice versa.

The FED Chair's statements have the greatest impact on the market compared to other members of the FED Board of Governors.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Speech may contain information about the expected change in the bank's interest rates or in the monetary policy.

The Aussie dollar, a G-7 proxy for China, is not impressed by reports of US-China trade talks gaining momentum. AUD/USD failed to take out key average hurdle despite renewed trade optimism. RBA's Debelle said slower wage growth is a new norm in Australia.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6769 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6761. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6793 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6801.

NZD USD

NZD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6416.

Retail Sales m/m reflects a change in New Zealand's retail sales in the reported month compared to the previous one. The calculation is adjusted for inflation. The index is often referred to as the consumer spending indicator, which allows assessing inflation in New Zealand. The indicator growth can have a positive effect on NZD quotes. 

Consumer Confidence Index displays the level of consumer confidence in the stability of the country's economy. It is based on the data from the monthly survey of more than 5000 households and is designed to evaluate the relative financial status, purchasing power and confidence of an average consumer. The survey consists of five questions, two of which are associated with the current economic conditions, while three deal with expectations. Since 60% of the survey has to do with expectations, the indicator is considered to be a leading market indicator. The indicator growth assumes an increase in consumer spending.

•             NZD/USD is facing pullback risks after multiple failures at the 100-day MA hurdle.

•             A close above the key average will likely invite stronger buying pressures.

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6400 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6392. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6426, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6434. 

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

 

[broforex51]

 

AUDUSD today, the trend is still bearish, and now the support line is breaking, so you can wait for the price until it touch resistance area at 0.67623 with potential target up to 50 pips below

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of GBP/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair 

GBP USD 

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3155. 

·         Flat in a 1.3153/1.3161 range, but decent interest once Asia fully opened

·         EUR/GBP saw modest volumes with a very tight 0.8438/0.8341 range

·         Conservative election victory expectations attracted fresh demand this week

·         Initial significant resistance at 1.3168/90, 50% 2018/19 fall and May high

·         1.3168 capped in NY, but is under pressure - strong resistance into 1.3200

·         Close above 1.3200 would be a strong positive into the election next week

·         Sustained 1.3200 break would open the door to the 1.3380 2019 high in March

·         Close below the prior 1.3000 range high needed to undermine topside bias

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3120 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3105. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3166 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3181. 

USD JPY 

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.75.

USD/JPY's CTA positioning and notes that it's mainly close to neutral and sidelined around current levels.

"CTAs having held back on going long in the USD/JPY market (buying USD and selling yen) during the recent risk-on phase, they have managed to avoid simultaneous stock selling and yen buying.

CTAs' USD/JPY positions are close to neutral at present, and they are not currently moving either to buy or to sell.  

"With the latent risk of yen appreciation being suppressed, if fundamentals-oriented investors begin tentatively dip-buying below 23,000, this downward move by the Nikkei 225 could be brought to a close relatively soon. 

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.66 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.58. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.92, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.00.

 Important Economic Events of the day

·         JPY: Household Spending y/y

·         USD: Nonfarm Payrolls

·         USD: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

·         CAD: Employment Change

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pair 

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1128.

·         EUR/USD stalls its strong intraday rally near 1.1200 round-figure mark.

·         Acceptance above 200-DMA support prospects for additional gains.

The EUR/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone through the early European session on Friday, albeit has retreated around 20-25 pips from the 1.1200 handle, or four-month tops.

Extremely overbought conditions on hourly charts seemed to be the only factor that kept a lid on any strong follow-through, rather prompted some profit-taking at higher levels.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1125 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1102. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1199 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1222

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3162.

·         Trades close to the top of a 1.3162/1.3516 range, after a hectic session

·         EUR/GBP is at the base of a 0.8278/0.8426 with huge flow for Asia

·         Bids at 1.3450 provided a base after initial jump - 1.3450 1BLN strikes

·         Early results support the exit poll prediction of an 86 Boris landslide

·         EU welcomes a strong UK mandate into upcoming trade talks

·         Charts show GBP trending higher, but over stretched short term

·         Stunning Conservative victory will totally change UK politics

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3170 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3061. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3524, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3633.

Important Economic Events of the day

·         EUR: EU Leaders Summit

·         JPY: BoJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Index

·         USD: Retail Sales m/m

·         USD: Retail Inventories m/m

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

 

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of EUR/USD and USD/CAD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1096.

•    EUR/USD is gaining ground on broad-based dollar selling.
•    The pair is closing on a crucial trendline hurdle at 1.1140.
•    With gold rising amid trade optimism, a breakout looks likely.

The easing of trade tensions is good news for Germany. The 18-month US-China trade war had pushed the Eurozone's manufacturing powerhouse and biggest economy to the brink of recession.

As a result, the dollar could continue to lose ground in Friday's European session – more so, as the equity market buoyancy is expected to continue with Amazon, the e-commerce giant, reporting record holiday season.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1087 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1080. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1107 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1114.

USD CAD

USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3121.

•    USD/CAD on track for a test below 1.31 the figure on firm commodity complex.
•    Phase-one trade deal between the US and China is in the making, supporting commodity currencies.

Funds is under pressure as the commodity complex catches a bid on the so-called 'phase-one' trade deal that is scheduled to be signed in January between the US and China.

 The trade, ownership and technology practices of Chinese companies for the past two decades will not vanish overnight, nor will optimism of US and Canadian executives return with two signatures.  

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3100 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3087. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3144, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3157.

Important Economic Events of the Day

•    JPY: Retail Sales m/m
•    USD: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
•    USD: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
•    GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP / USD Currency Pair

EUR /USD

EUR traded Higher against USD and closed at 1.1175.

 EUR/USD is attempting a convincing break above 1.12 amid broad-based US dollar weakness.

The currency pair is currently trading at 1.1196, representing a 0.20% gain on the day, having hit a high of 1.1210 in Asia.

Dollar's bearish trend continued in Asia and looks to have legs, as gold, a hard currency, is reporting a 3% gain on a month-to-date basis in dollar terms and is expected to put on a good show next year.

The trend in the gold market is widely used as an indicator to confirm the bullish/bearish price action in the US dollar. 

EUR/USD's bullish case looks stronger with the weekly chart reporting an upside break of the trendline connecting September 2018 and June 2019 highs. 

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1196 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1195. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1200 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1201.

GBP / USD  

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3076

·         GBP/USD remains on the front foot for the fifth consecutive day to the highest since December 19.

·         The Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s former adviser Trixy Sanderson signaled the EU’s preparations for a              no-deal departure.

·         The market lost interest in the greenback as phase-one calls rise but US-China political divide remains.

 

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3075 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3068. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3097, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3104.

 

Important Economic Events of the Day

·         USD: Pending Home Sales m/m

·         USD: Pending Home Sales y/y

·         USD: Goods Trade Balance

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

 

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP / USD Currency Pair

 EUR /USD

• EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1193

The market is well placed to retest resistance at 1.1197- 1.1240 – namely the 55-week ma, the 2019-2020 down channel and the recent high. This guards the 200-week ma at 1.1360 which continues to represent a critical breakpoint medium term.”

 “Dips lower are well supported by the 55 and 20-day ma at 1.1095/1.1065 and the 3-month uptrend at 1.1045.”

 “Failure at the uptrend would target the 1.0981 29th November low.”

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1167 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1156 The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1205 and a rise through could take it to the next the resistance level of 1.1216. 

 GBP / USD  

 · GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3167

 “We look for dips lower to remain well supported by the 55-day ma at 1.2987. The low on the 23rd December was 1.2908 and while above here we will assume an upside bias to retest the December high at 1.3515.”

 “The December high at 1.3515 guards the September 2017 high and 38.2% retracement (of the move down from 2014) at 1.3658/68. This guards the more important 1.3918 2007 -2020 downtrend.”

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2841 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2604. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3461, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3607.

 Important Economic Events of the Day

•       EUR Retail Sales m/m.
•       EUR Retail Sales y/y.   
•       GBP 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction.
•       USD Trade Balance.

More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of GBP/USD and EUR/USD Currency Pair

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3017.

GBP/USD looks to extend the bounce towards 1.3050 ahead of the UK CPI report, as broad-based US dollar weakness and bullish technical set up underpin the sentiment around the spot.

 

•             Flat - closed up 0.2%, as expectations of a Jan BoE cut cooled

•             Inflation data on today and retail sales Friday will be key for sterling

•             Despite bounce daily charts are negative, though at low end of recent ranges

•             Momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head lower and 21 day Bolli bands slip

•             1.2900, December low then 1.2887 lower 21 day Bolli band are major support

 

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2973 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2954. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3033, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3052.

 

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1127.

 

•             EUR/USD barely moved in Asia trading in a 1.1126/31 range

•             Most of the action in regionals as USD moved up on Mnuchin comments\

•             Resistance at 10-day MA at 1.1140 with option selling ahead of 1.1150

•             Large option maturities 1.1100/50 defining recent range

•             Break above 1.1150 targets 61.8 fibo of 1.1240/1.1085 at 1.1181

•             EZ IP later today, but US-China trade deal likely to be main event

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1111 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1101. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1141 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1151.

• Economic Events of the Day

1.    USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
2.   USD EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change
3.   USD FOMC Member Harker Speech

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

 

[xtreamforex26]

Technical Overview of EUR/USD and USD/JPY and Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at:  1.1094

·         Touch softer - closed up 0.05% after recording a fresh 1.1076 Jan low

·         UK to set out goals for EU trade talks - PM Johnson's spokesman

·         Charts show momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edging lower - negative setup

·         1.1080/85, 61.8% of the Nov-Dec bounce and Jan double bottom held on close

·         Sustained 1.1075 break a bearish signal, next stop 1.1042 76.4% Nov-Dec rise

·         1.1113, 38.2% of the January dip and 5 DMA is initial resistance

·         1.1100 350M, 1.1125 230M, and 1.1140-50 1.5BLN strikes cap

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1082 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1076. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1102 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1108

USD JPY

USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 110.18.

USD/JPY extends losses while taking rounds to 110.00 during early Tuesday. The pair shrugged off the BOJ’s widely anticipated monetary policy decision as risk aversion seems to be in the play.

·         USD/JPY extends the recent losses despite BOJ holding its monetary policy intact while keeping forward guidance on interest rates intact.

·         News of corona virus outbreak recently triggered risk-off; trade-positive news from the Chinese Commerce Ministry failed to please buyers.

·         Geopolitical plays in the Middle East, trade headlines will welcome the US traders returning from the extended weekend.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 110.13 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.10. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.21 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.24

Economic Events of the Day            

·         JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

·         JPY BoJ Press Conference

·         GBP Claimant Count Change

·         EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!  

[broforex51]

 

AUDCAD today, AUD was go up several days ago, and now AUD weak again, so the best option for you is to sell AUDCAD, you can sell it when the price breaks support area at 0.89651 and start sell it, with potential target up to 0.89346

[broforex51]

 

CAD JPY today, the price is still bearish, the best option for you is to sell it, you can sell it at resistance area at 81.242 dengan TP di 79.960

[broforex51]

 

AUDCAD today, as we see here the price is on resistance area, so you better sell it now at 0.86631 with potential target up to 0.85527

[HFM]

 

Date : 5th May 2020.

Sterling VS data, BoE and lockdown decision!



With RBA out of the way, BoE is the next to announce monetary policy this week. The BoE’s May monetary policy will be accompanied by its quarterly Inflation Report. The central bank has already slashed its policy repo interest rate to near zero while expanding its QE programme and putting in liquidity measures in response to the financial market consequences of the pandemic-forced economic lockdown. As with the Fed and ECB last week, this policy meeting isn’t likely to be too eventful, with the policy framework expected to be left unchanged for now. Large reductions in the central bank’s growth and inflation forecasts can taken as a given in the Inflation Report.

Meanwhile, a more eventful announcement, will be the looming decision on the UK’s lockdown, with the government announcing its review on it this Thursday. Although the five criteria the government has listed as necessary to be met before a phased reopening can commence:

• flattening in the infection rate
• ability of the health system to cope, with increased diagnostic testing capacity
• a sustained and consistent fall in daily death rates with confidence the UK is beyond the peak
• enough testing and personal protective equipment (PPE) to meet future demand
• that any changes in restrictions will not lead to a second peak

look to be nearing accomplishment, Prime Minister Johnson will reportedly extend the lockdown for a third time, although for how long is uncertain. He will also, reportedly, detail a roadmap to economic reopening in the UK.

And adding to the uncertainties over the extent of the economic recession in the UK are also the weak data reports, with the latest being the UK final April composite PMI. The UK’s final composite PMI was unexpectedly revised higher, to a reading of 13.8 from the preliminary estimate of 12.9. However this won’t be greeted with joy as the revised outcome still marks a record low (by far) since the series started in 1998, having plunged from 36.0 in March, and from a reading above 50.0 in February.

The details of the survey reveal record declines in new work and employment, while input costs in the service sector dropped for the first time in the data series. As has been seen in other countries, the service sector drop was eye watering, diving to 13.4 (revised from 12.3) from 34.5 in March, with April being the first month of data to fully capture the true impact of the coronavirus/lockdown.

The data reflects the wide extent of business mothballing due to the pandemic and consequent lockdown, which commenced in the UK on March 23rd. In the manufacturing realm, the small minority of businesses reporting output growth were involved in medical supply chains or producers of food or drink. Many sub-components fell by record amounts, but while staffing levels dropped there were numerous reports that the fall reflected the use of the government scheme to furlough workers. One ray of light came from business optimism for the year ahead, which lifted off its record low that was seen in March, although only modestly, reflecting expectations for a phased reopening of the economy.

In the FX market:
Sterling is trading mixed so far today, dropping against a generally firmer Dollar while gaining versus an underperforming Euro, and holding steady against the Yen. Cable posted an intraday low at 1.2421 after tumbling back from the intraday high at 1.2461. In contrast, euro weakness drove EURGBP over 0.5% lower, to a four-day low at 0.8708. The release of final UK PMI survey data was of no consequence.



In the overall picture however, Sterling remains under pressure against USD which has been extending gains against EUR since last Friday. While the Pound is up by over 8% from the 35-year low that was seen in mid March, the currency remains down by over 6% on the year-to-date.

The UK currency has today once again proved sensitive to the backdrop of falling global stock markets. The combo of the UK’s open economy, current account deficit and outsized financial sector, has made Sterling sensitive to swings in risk appetite in global markets.

If we turn our attention to Cable, the pair is stuck in between the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.3199 to 1.1409, while it is trading for a second day at the mid-Bollinger Band line. The rejection of the 200-day SMA at 1.2643 for a 2nd time reflects the significance of this strong resistance level, while it kept the asset into more than a month range below 1.2600.

To the downside, the 50% Fibo at 1.2300 could be a key level for a potential reversal of a trend lower. Currently, however, the nearterm picture is negative while overall picture is neutral with momentum indicators (RSI at 51, MACD flattened at zero) and BB lines and daily moving averages flattened, suggesting that consolidations could continue in the upcoming days.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

 

Date : 7th May 2020.

Commodities Update.


Energy

Oil Action: USOIL has steadied on either side of the $23.00 level, though remains down nearly 6% on the day, after printing 3-week highs over $26 overnight. The weekly EIA inventory report yesterday revealed a much smaller than expected rise in crude stocks, but also a larger than expected build in distillate supplies, which offset the mildly bullish crude number. The EIA reported that US production slipped to 11.9 mln bpd in the latest reporting week from 12.1 mln bpd the previous week. March production levels were near 13.1 mln bpd.

Meanwhile, earlier today, the unexpectedly good trade report out of China, which reported an 8.2% y/y rise in exports, contrary to the median forecast for a 14.1% contraction, catalysed a risk appetite, which also lifted the commodities and commodity currencies. Currently the crude prices remain up by over 230% from the low seen near $10 on April 28th, though prices still remain down by over 74% from the highs seen in January, as the oil market is not out of the woods yet, as production cuts have so far been insufficient to offset the huge virus related crash in demand.

Hence, on the products side, EIA data shows that refinery utilisation continues to improve, while from trade side, China’s data shows that economies reopening globally could support the Oil price in the near term .

That said, going forward, focus is on economies that are reopening from virus-containing lockdowns, and how successful, extensive and durable this proves to be. This should rekindle demand for oil and other commodities, which should in turn put in an underpinning for Canada’s currency.



Metals

Metals meanwhile are trading mixed with gold, copper, silver and platinum trading back from their highs, but at the same time holding well above the year’s plunge, suggesting that there are some signs of a stabilisation in sentiment. Palladium is the exception to this, since it has been trading in a negative territory since the end of March. Chinese data helped in the short term timeframe to partially dispel worries of a negative impact on metals demand via exports, although the detailed data are still unavailable. Nevertheless, the mining disruptions remain and should remain in the near future largely responsible for the tight market in metals since for the time being there is demand only from smelters.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 8th May 2020.

Bitcoin: Is there any value in this rally?



The 8-week rally in Bitcoin breached $10,000 today for the first time since February and is retesting the 10,000-10,500 Resistance area for the third time since September. Other cryptocurrencies saw a similar price action. This has been concomitant with a rally in global equity markets which are pricing-in a reopening of major economies from virus-containing lockdowns, overlooking dismal data (such as a 6% plunge in Japanese household spending, in data released today, and an expected 16% plunge in US April unemployment, in data to be released later) as being backward looking. Yesterday’s unexpected 8.2% y/y rise in Chinese exports in April, contrary to the median forecast for a 14.1% contraction, was a tonic for investors, while news that the US and China have agreed to strengthen cooperation in trade talks has gone down well, too.

However, the main factor that has boosted bitcoin and in general the cryptocurrency market is the anticipation of a major technical event for the digital coin, i.e. Halving. The price of bitcoin is expected to continue to rally in the run-up to the “halving” on May 12.

The reward halving, during which the number of new bitcoins being issued are cut by 50%, takes place every four years in BTC’s case. This halving activity is the breakdown of block mining rewards in half and it makes the cost of mining activity more expensive than ever before. This activity tends to lead to a decline in supply and is directly proportional to an increase in demand, which would theoretically lead to higher prices.

Hence as the cryptocurrency market historically tends to decline after every halving, it seems that investors have increased their interest ahead of the event by boosting the entire market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market by more than $13 billion from a day before. Currently, the value of the entire market stands at $268.07 billion

Other contributory factors probably include the central banks’ monetary policy, as the unprecedented economic destruction is being countered by massive fiscal and monetary policy measures globally. Also Bitcoin has once again rekindled the belief that cryptocurrencies are affected by the global equities performance but also react on major political and geopolitical events. This comes from the fact that cryptocurrency markets plunged following the plummet in oil prices and further sell-off in stocks back in February and March 2020, while they have spiked higher again since March 24 for the same reason, i.e. stocks recovery. Bitcoin more precisely posted more than 150% rebound from $3,762 seen in March, which was slightly above the 2018 bottom.



Bitcoin, from a mathematical perspective, looks to be ready to form another parabolic circle with a potential lower peak after the ones that we have seen in 2017 and 2019. There is a repetitive pattern in Bitcoin with lower wave peaks every time. Hence in the upcoming weeks it will be interesting to see if the asset will manage to sustain the positive sentiment and more precisely remain above the $10,000 level. This level is a key area to be closely watched as it reflects 6-month Resistance, a round number but also the break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement since 2019 plunge.

However, as following every halving the market tends to enter a bear market there is also the risk of a reversal if the top is reached. Hence Bitcoin could turn lower again if we see a potential pullback below the 50% Fib. level or even the 20-week SMA, at the 7,900-8,700 area. Hence please bear in mind that Bitcoin has always been and probably remains a very volatile asset subject to huge price swings. Hence the risk of a substantial drop remains.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.