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[Stan NordFX]

Forecast: What to Expect from the Euro and the Dollar in 2022

It is always interesting to know whose predictions came true and whose predictions did not. Exactly a year ago, we published forecasts given by experts from leading world banks regarding the EUR/USD rate for 2021, and now we can decide which of them was right and to what extent. Or, on the contrary, which one was wrong.

Last Year's Forecast: They Were Wrong after All

December 2019 There was no talk of a global pandemic that month, when the first outbreak of COVID-19 was recorded in Wuhan, China. But even then, the Financial Times published a forecast of Citigroup experts that the quantitative easing (QE) policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity could cause the dollar to fall. Colleagues from Citigroup were supported then by analysts at the Swiss bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world's largest investment companies, BlackRock.

As the pandemic raged on, this scenario began to prove its case. Since the last decade of March, the dollar began to lose ground, and the EUR/USD pair crawled up. Starting on March 22, 2020, from 1.0630, it met the new 2021 at 1.2300.

The Fed was in full swing implementing its monetary stimulus program on the eve of 2021, and the printing press was working at full capacity, filling the American market with new, unsecured dollars. There were no plans to curtail monetary stimulus and, moreover, to raise the interest rate.

Based on this and looking back at the dynamics of the dollar over the last three quarters of 2020, experts were making their forecasts for the coming months. Most of them were inclined to believe that money would actively flow to Europe in 2021, and the dollar would face a deep devaluation. True, different analysts assessed the depth of a possible fall in the USD differently.

 For example, one of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, predicted a drop in the weighted USD rate by only 6%, and Morgan Stanley expected the EUR/USD pair to rise to 1.2500. (By the way, the figure of 1.2500 was also sounded in many other moderate forecasts).

But there were also those who predicted a catastrophic fall in the American currency. Prominent economists, Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff and former Morgan Stanley Asia head and Fed Board member Stephen Roach estimated the likelihood of a dollar collapse in 2021 at 50%. At the same time, Roach believed that the devaluation of the dollar could reach 35%. A slightly smaller but also impressive devaluation of 20% was forecast by analysts at Citigroup. That is, in their opinion, now that you are reading this review, the EUR/USD pair should have been in the 1.4000-1.4400 zone.

The pair did start to grow with the onset of 2021. But this trend lasted ... less than one week. It reached the level of 1.2350 on January 6, and this was the year's high. Everything changed starting from January 7, and the dollar began to win back losses.

The US currency moved in a sinusoidal manner until the end of May, fluctuating along with the waves of the coronavirus and statements by the Fed leaders. But the mood of the US Central Bank began to clearly change from dovish to hawkish just before the onset of summer, the country's economy was recovering, and confidence in the imminent tightening of the FRS monetary policy began to grow among investors. And this means a reduction in asset repurchases and an increase in the interest rate on federal funds in the long term. Investors began to recall the "bread" times of the summer of 2019, when the rate was equal to 2.25%, and not the current "beggarly" 0.25%.

The American currency went into steady growth (minor corrections do not count) after that, and is now completing 2021in the 1.1200-1.1300 zone. That is, it is very far from 1.2500, as had been predicted by respected experts. It's not even worth talking about 1.4000-1.4400.

 
What Experts Expect in the New Year

If the forecasts for the dollar for the past 2021 were more like obituaries, the prospects for the USD in the eyes of some experts look much more optimistic now. And all due to the fact that the US Federal Reserve, unlike the central banks of many other G20 countries, has actively embarked on curtailing its QE program, the US economy, including the labor market, is recovering well, GDP growth is projected at 5%, and now, according to the Federal Reserve, it is time to curb inflation. The fact that the interest rate will rise to at least 1.5% by the end of 2023 is now almost beyond doubt.

 In this situation, according to experts of the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), the dovish position of the Central Banks of the EU, Japan and Switzerland, more tolerant of price increases, will cause their national currencies to fall significantly behind the dollar in 2022. ING strategists believe that the EUR/USD pair will fall to the 1.1100 zone in Q2 and Q4 of next year, and it will be even lower at 1.1000 in Q4.

 Analysts of one of the largest financial conglomerates in the world, HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) are in solidarity with ING. “Our main argument,” their forecast says, “is based on two factors supporting the dollar: 1. a slowdown in global economic growth and 2. the Federal Reserve’s gradual transition to a possible rate hike. These two forces are likely to remain decisive and should support the gradual appreciation of the dollar in 2022.” HSBC analysts also believe that the trend of the EUR/USD pair will be downward, as the ECB does not plan to raise the key rate until the end of 2022.

CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists also side with the US dollar, marking the following route for the EUR/USD pair for the coming year: Q2 - 1.1100, Q3 - 1.1000, Q4 - 1.1000. The JP Morgan financial holding assessed the pair's prospects more modestly, pointing to the level of 1.1200. That is, in this case, we can already talk about a sideways trend.

 It should be noted that not all the authorities in the financial world are betting on the strength of the dollar. Many analysts have taken the opposite position and, on the contrary, expect a weakening of the US currency “In 2022, - writes FXStreet, - the Federal Reserve System may return to dovish positions that will put pressure on the dollar.”

 Barclays Bank already considers the dollar to be highly overestimated. Therefore, it is expected to depreciate moderately against the backdrop of rising risk appetites and commodity prices, caused by the recovery of the global world economy and cooling inflation. The Barclays scenario written for EUR/USD looks like this: Q1 2022 - growth to 1.1600, Q2 - 1.1800, Q3 and Q4 - movement in the 1.1900 zone.   

Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published their scenarios of the dynamics of the foreign exchange market for the next 12 months. In addition to the aforementioned JP Morgan and Barclays, the respondents were banking conglomerates Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, as well as Europe's largest asset management company Amundi.

Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's rate hike will proceed fairly smoothly, while other central banks will move from dovish to hawkish politics. This will lead to a convergence in the actions of regulators, put pressure on the dollar and raise the EUR/USD pair to 1.1800.

Goldman Sachs strategists call the same goal of 1.1800. Although, in this case, this can be considered a success for the US currency. The fact is that an earlier forecast of this investment bank pointed to a much higher mark of 1.2500. 

Amundi believes that the Fed “has little to do to surprise market expectations” and, although a moderate normalization of monetary policy “will remain generally positive for the dollar” by the end of the year, the pair will reach 1.1400.

The most unexpected forecast was given by the strategists of the Wells Fargo investment institute. They just named a wide range from 1.1000 to 1.1800. And it is quite possible that this prediction will prove to be the most correct one.

 There is such a proverb, “Man believes, and Life has”. Its meaning is that human plans, even the most thoughtful ones, are imperfect and changeable. Life, however, puts everything in its place over time. So we will only be able to understand at the end of next year who of the influencers was right. In the meantime, on the eve of the new year, we wish you success in your work, financial well-being, good health and excellent mood. Happy New Year!

***

In the next review, in a week, we will tell you what experts think about the future of the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), the British pound (GBP/USD), the Canadian (USD/CAD) and the Australian (AUD/ USD) dollars, Swedish kronor (USD/SEK), Swiss franc (USD/CHF) and Chinese yuan (USD/CNH). 

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/ 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Elon Musk is Satoshi Nakamoto. Such a sensational statement was made by a SpaceX and Tesla ex-software developper Sahil Gupta. He revealed details that, in his opinion, prove that Musk is the creator of bitcoin, since he had the necessary resources, knowledge and motivation to do so.
In addition, Sahil Gupta claims that he had once directly asked the billionaire representative Sam Teller if Musk was the creator of bitcoin, he was silent for about 15 seconds, and then said: "Well, what can I say...".

- Philip Hammond, former British Chancellor of the Exchequer, who also served as Foreign Secretary, Secretary of Defense and Minister of Transport, called on retail investors to be “extremely cautious” when investing in cryptocurrencies.
“If a member of my family asked me [whether to invest in cryptocurrency], I would draw their attention to the fact that large and reputable asset managers are now more likely to test the waters [...] It is almost certainly not suitable for retail investors as the main investment grade ", - said Baron Hammond. In his opinion, buying a cryptocurrency is more of a gamble than a serious investment.

- Unlike Baron Hammond, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest people in Mexico and founder of the Grupo Salinas group of companies, called on subscribers to actively buy the first cryptocurrency in his New Year's address.
“Stay away from fiat money. The dollar, the euro, the yen, the peso are all the same. It is fake money made of paper and lies. Central banks print more money than ever. Invest in bitcoin,” he said. The billionaire reported that he invested 10% of his liquid portfolio in bitcoin back in November 2020.

“The cryptocurrency market will grow to tens of trillions of dollars,” said Jihan Wu, co-founder of Bitmain and head of Matrixport and Bitdeer, in an interview with Forbes. In his opinion, "even if 95% of existing coins are depreciated or disappear, the growth rate of the remaining 5% will be enormous."
“Innovations like DeFi are breathtaking. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain have created a new world, enabling fintech entrepreneurs to achieve great success. Traditional financial institutions and regulators will also adopt blockchain technology over time,” the billionaire believes.

- The frequency of mentions of bitcoin on Twitter increased by 350% in 2021 compared to 2020. 101 million tweets with the word “bitcoin” were published in just 12 months, according to data from the analytical company Visibrain.
The number of mentions of bitcoin on Twitter jumped sharply against the backdrop of various events. So, there was a surge in the popularity of the asset in February against the background of the flash mob "laser eyes", the participants of which put photos with laser eyes on their Twitter avatars and promised not to change them until bitcoin rose in price to $100,000. An increase in mentions also occurred when Tesla suspended the sale of its cars for bitcoins, and El Salvador recognized the cryptocurrency as an official means of payment.

- Joseph Tsai, Vice Chairman of the Chinese Internet Company Alibaba, announced his commitment to cryptocurrencies. He tweeted a simple and short phrase, "I like cryptocurrencies," to which a lot of users responded. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao did not ignore Tsai's tweet either and replied, "I like Joe."
Recall that the Chinese authorities are taking serious measures against the cryptocurrency industry. And this was the reason that, despite the loyalty of its vice president, the e-commerce giant has already begun to implement an anti-cryptocurrency policy. Alibaba announced last autumn that it will be forbidden to sell mining equipment on the platform. The company has also pledged to stop selling books and tutorials related to the digital asset industry.

- A well-known trader and analyst Tone Weiss predicts a powerful surge of bitcoin. He believes that the current market situation does not reflect the potential of the first cryptocurrency, and the current situation is just a “speed bump in the bull market”. The specialist recalled that similar phenomena have already happened in the past, and each time bitcoin, having overcome the section that slowed it down, picked up speed again. At the same time, Weiss noted that he does not know exactly to what minimum BTC may fall before its value begins to increase. 
The trader also noted that bitcoin is currently trading within a large ascending triangle on the monthly chart. This is a bullish pattern suggesting a continuation of the uptrend. The analyst believes that the asset's overcoming the $60,000 level will open the way for a large-scale rally to $100,000 and above.

- Analyst PlanB also believes that the digital asset is bound to grow. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model. PlanB has previously claimed that the main cryptocurrency will be able to break through the $100,000 level before the end of this year. Despite the fact that his forecast did not come true, the analyst continues to believe the S2F signals.

- Lukas Lagoudis, CEO of ARK36 cryptocurrency hedge fund, believes in maintaining the upward trend in the crypto market next year. According to him, the value of coins will increase due to the inflow of capital from institutional investors and the integration of digital assets into traditional financial systems. Lagoudis suggests that the popularity of virtual currencies should increase due to rising inflation and declining bond yields.

- Documentaries that talk about bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry appear on the film market from time to time. Some of them have earned rave reviews from critics and users interested in the industry.
The first place in the TOP-3 is taken by the documentary "This Machine Greens", which tells about the mining process. "Man B" is in the second place, in which the authors examine the attitude of the citizens of Germany and Austria towards bitcoin. The third line is taken by the documentary film "Hard Money". This short film explains why bitcoin is so important for the entire planet. It can also be used to find out why gold was chosen as the main asset for civilization at one time, and what its drawbacks are.

- The US Congress approved an increase in the national debt limit by another $2.5 trillion. According to experts, this decision will once again postpone the threat of federal default until at least the beginning of 2023, accelerate inflation in the United States and lead to an increase in investment in gold and bitcoin.
Max Keiser, a well-known crypto investor and founder of Heisenberg Capital, said the bill created “ideal conditions for bitcoin to grow as the US government capitulated to hyperinflation”. “I don’t want to see America collapse, but I don’t have that many dollars, so I don’t care,” Kaiser announced.
Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss (Tyler Winklevoss) wrote on Twitter that the approval by the US Senate of the debt ceiling “will actually work as advertising for bitcoin at $2.5 trillion.” Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, shares a similar view. “It looks like bitcoin is enjoying government support,” he writes.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. 

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Leading Banks Forecast for 2022: JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD, CHF, SEK, CNH

We talked a week ago about what experts from the world's leading banks and agencies think about the behavior of the EUR/USD pair in the coming 2022. And the fact that we paid attention to it in the first place is quite logical: after all, this pair is the most traded on the Forex market, and the European currency itself leads by a huge margin in the formation of the US Dollar Index DXY, with 57.6%.

Recall that DXY was developed by the US Federal Reserve in 1973 and shows the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of 6 major world currencies. This basket includes euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%) and Swiss franc (3.6%).

In our opinion, the economic situation in the world has changed quite a lot over the past almost half a century since the inception of DXY. And at least the Chinese yuan should have appeared in the basket. Therefore, below we will look at the prospects for both the currency pairs that form the dollar index: USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, USD/CHF, and some other, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CNH.

USD/JPY: Japan Needs a Weak Yen

It is known that inflation, along with the recovery of the labor market, is one of the two main factors that central banks focus on in their monetary policy.

The positive GDP gap is also called the inflation gap, because it indicates that the growth of aggregate demand outstrips the growth of aggregate supply and accelerates inflation. This, according to the IMF, will be observed in the United States (+ 3.3%) and Canada (+ 0.8%) in 2022. And regulators will have to take active steps to tighten their monetary policy in order to contain inflation. And this, according to experts from the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), will give the currencies of these countries, primarily the USD, an advantage over the currencies of those countries where GDP has negative gap. It is also called recessionary, since the excess of supply over demand is the path to deflation.

The recession gap has been observed since 2008 in Japan and is likely to repeat in 2022. That is why the policy of the Bank of Japan is one of the most dovish among the central banks of other countries, and the interest rate on the yen has been held at a negative level for a long time, minus 0.1%.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has recently said that a weak yen would rather help the country's economy than harm it. According to the senior official, if the yen falls, it will support exports and corporate profits.

ING Group believes that such a differentiation between the approaches of the US Federal Reserve and the Japanese regulator will strengthen the dollar's position against the yen. Their quarterly forecast for USD/JPY for this year is as follows: Q1 - 114.00, Q2 - 115.00, Q3 - 118.00 and Q4 - 120.00.

The French financial conglomerate Societe Generale estimates the probability that the pair will rise to 116.00 in the Q2 at 50%, and up to 118.00 - 25%. Experts bet the remaining 25% on a bearish scenario and the fall of the pair to 110.00.

Analysts from other leading global banks also prefer the dollar. However, unlike their colleagues from ING, a number of forecasts has the peak not at the end, but in the middle of the year. Barclays Bank's forecast looks like this: Q1 - 115.00, Q2 - 116.00, Q3 - 116.00 and Q4 - 115.00. The CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) forecast paints a similar picture: Q1 - 115.00, Q2 - 116.00, Q3 - 115.00, Q4 - 114.00.

Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published the opinion of their experts regarding the values of the USD/JPY pair in the second half - late 2022. For the most part, forecasts point to a strengthening dollar: JP Morgan Q3 - 114.00, Amundi Q4 - 116.00, Morgan Stanley Q4 - 118.00. On the contrary, Goldman Sachs believes that the pair will fall to 111.00 in 2023.

 
GBP/USD: At the Crossroads of Three Roads

Regarding the future of the British currency, British investment Barclays Bank has taken a very patriotic stance. His strategists consider the pound to be highly undervalued and predict that the GBP/USD pair will return to the 2021 highs and rise to 1.4200 by the end of the year.

Unlike most investment banks, Barclays believes that the policy of the US Federal Reserve does not provide strong support for the US currency at all, and this will lead to its moderate depreciation. The Bank expects other central banks to take a more aggressive stance than the Fed, with higher interest rates, thereby limiting the attractiveness of the dollar. First of all, of course, we are talking here about the Bank of England.

As for the short-term outlook for the pound, Barclays’ analysts are more cautious here, as the impact of high inflation will neutralize the potential support from a slight increase in interest rates. In addition, concerns about the new wave of COVID-19 and the difficulties with the EU due to Brexit need to be considered. As a result, Barclays' quarterly forecast is as follows: Q1 - 1.3300, Q2 - 1.3700, Q3 - 1.4000 and Q4 - 1.4200.

Capital Economics, one of the leading independent research centers in the UK, took the opposite position. Its specialists, on the contrary, expect the pound to weaken, and refer to a combination of 1) weak economic growth, 2) slowdown in inflation and 3) slowness of the Bank of England. These three factors may lead to the fact that the regulator of the United Kingdom may raise the rate to only 0.5% in the coming months instead of 1.0%, and thus disappoint the markets.

But, in addition to the growth and fall of the British currency, there is a third scenario. ING Group analysts predict that the pound will be somewhere in the middle of a triangle of a stronger US dollar, stable commodity currencies and weaker low-yielding currencies. Therefore, according to their scenario, the GBP/USD pair will move in a sideways trend: Q1-1.3300, Q2-1.3400, Q3-1.3400 and Q4-1.3400.

Other Currency Pairs 

- If Barclays Bank believes in its national currency, CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists are quite pessimistic about the future. In their opinion, the Canadian dollar may become weaker this year. “Markets overestimated the possible actions of the Bank of Canada in 2022,” says CIBC, “and underestimated the Fed in 2022. Recalibration will leave CAD out of favor with investors.” The bank's forecast for the USD/CAD pair is as follows: Q1-1.2800, Q2-1.2900, Q3-1.3000 and Q4-1.3000.

- Experts at HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) believe that some currencies will still be able to hold their ground against the stronger US dollar, including the Australian dollar. HSBC believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia may take a more hawkish position, given the rather strong macroeconomic data.

- ING strategists do not exclude that the Australian dollar may benefit from undervaluation and being oversold either. However, taking long positions on the AUD/USD pair, in their opinion, still carries a high risk.

-In addition, according to ING experts, together with the euro (EUR/USD) and the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), the Swiss franc will also lag significantly behind the dollar (USD/CHF) in 2022 as well as Swedish Krona (USD/SEK).

- Barclays Bank's forecast for other currency pairs included in the palette of trading instruments of the brokerage company NordFX is as follows: EUR/GBP : Q1 - 0.87, Q2 - 0.86, Q3 - 0.85, Q4 - 0.84 | USD/CHF : Q1 - 0.91, Q2 - 0.90, Q3 - 0.90, Q4 - 0.90 | AUD/USD : Q1 - 0.75, Q2 - 0.76, Q3 - 0.77, Q4 - 0.78 | NZD/USD : Q1 - 0.73, Q2 - 0.73, Q3 - 0.73, Q4 - 0.73 | USD/CAD : Q1 - 1.23, Q2 - 1.22, Q3 - 1.21, Q4 - 1.21 | USD/CNH : Q1 - 6.35, Q2 - 6.30, Q3 - 6.40, Q4 - 6.50.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/ 

[Mike001]

I did not think that so many analysts can give openly

[Stan NordFX]

December 2021: XAU/USD, GBP/USD and BTC/USD Are Among the Favorites

NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the last month of 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

Among traders, the best result of the month was shown by the holder of account No. 1045XXX from China, whose profit amounted to 33,105 USD and was received due to bitcoin transactions (BTC/USD). It is worth noting that the flagship cryptocurrency either fell or was in a flat for most of December, so it seems that it took a lot of effort to get such a significant profit. 

The second place in the top three most productive NordFX clients belongs to a trader from India (account No. 1583XXX), who earned 25,413 USD on gold transactions (XAU/USD) and British Pound (GBP/USD).

And finally, the third step of the podium is taken by another representative of China (account No. 1549XXX) with a profit of 22,256 USD, who traded the major forex pair, EUR/USD.

The NordFX passive investment services:

- while analyzing the CopyTrading showcase during 2021, we paid maximum attention to long-lived signals. And now we have decided to change “traditions” and pay attention to “startups”. These signals have appeared quite recently, which is why they can be classified as risky. However, the current profit/drawdown ratio makes them quite interesting: if not for short-term investments, then at least for careful monitoring. Since there are many such signals, we will form not TOP-3, but TOP-5 of them.

AURISTELA - the signal has existed since October 25, 2021. It brought a profit of 93.23% during these 65 days (in December - 39.53%) with a maximum drawdown of just over 35%. Almost all (99%) transactions have been made with gold (XAU/USD).

The next signal is called Hada. It started on November 20, 2021, a little more than a month ago. The total yield for this period was 27.74%, for December it was 14.72%, the drawdown was only 4.39%, the traded pairs were USD/JPY, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD.

Number 3 on the list is the Darto Capital signal, it is only 10 days old, while the capital gain due to transactions on the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, BTC/USD, XAU/USD pairs amounted to 32.79% with a drawdown of 4.80%.

And the TOP-5 startups are closed by two signals, which, judging by the life expectancy, set of tools and volume of transactions, belong to the same author. These signals are Sriniwas (lifetime 45 days, profitability during this time 23.22%, for December - 14.38%, drawdown 8.38%) and Rekha Dubey (lifetime - the same 45 days, profitability during this time 30.05%, for December - 21.16% , drawdown 8.80%). The traded pairs are XAU/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, BTC/USD, US500. Gold is the leader in both cases (more than 70% of the total trading volume), which is not uncommon. But the transactions with the stock index Standard & Poor's 500 (US500) can be seen as exotic. However, this tool took a little more than 4% in the basket of this trader.

- As for the PAMM service, we have repeatedly noted the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. This manager increased their capital by 65% on their KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account in 11 months, with a fairly moderate drawdown - less than 16%. The arsenal of their trading instruments is quite diverse and includes such not very popular pairs as, for example, NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD.

The account TranquilityFX - The Genesis v3 also attracts attention among the PAMM accounts. It has existed for 272 days and has brought a profit of 45% with a drawdown of 16% during this time. The set of traded currency pairs on this account is similar to that of KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA, which suggests that the same trader is managing both accounts.

NKFX - Ninja 136 is very similar to the two previous accounts as well. Its lifespan is 172 days, the gain is 34%, the maximum drawdown is about 15%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:

- the largest commission, 5,236 USD, was credited in December to a partner from Vietnam, account No.1371ХXХ;
- the next is a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx, who received 4,578 USD for the month;
- and, finally, a partner from India, account No.11570ХХХ, who received 2,904 USD as a reward, closes the top three.

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Super Lottery 2021 Final Draw: Another $60,000 Drawn

The third and final draw of the Super Lottery by the brokerage company NordFX took place on January 3. The lottery was launched nine months ago, in April 2021, and anyone could participate in it, it was enough to fulfill just a few simple conditions.

Interim draws were held every three months. Like the final one, they were held online, and all interested persons could follow them on the Internet. The videos of all the draws runs are available now on the company's official YouTube channel.

The final draw took place immediately after the New Year holidays, on January 03, 2022. And it drew a substantial amount of $60,000 divided by 30 prizes of $500, 10 of $1,000, 6 of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000.

The winners are the holders of the following lottery tickets:

According to the rules, the prize funds can be used by the lottery winner in trading or withdrawn from the account at any time by any of the available methods and without any restrictions.

Summing up the results of our super lottery, we would like to wish all its participants and all NordFX clients a Happy New Year. May luck always be with you in 2022. We wish happiness, health and prosperity to you and your loved ones!

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- It was 13 years ago, on January 3, 2009, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. Its hash contains the title of the article "Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks" by the British edition of The Times. The launch of the network was preceded by the publication of the bitcoin white paper on October 31, 2008. The first bitcoin transaction took place on January 12, 2009: Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney.
It is possible that one of the incentives for the bitcoin creation was the global financial crisis that broke out in 2007-2008, accompanied by the collapse of the largest investment banks, a widespread decline in production, falling demand and prices for raw materials, rising unemployment and active government intervention in the economy.

- According to the CoinatMrRadar analytical service, against the backdrop of growing demand for cryptocurrencies, about 20,000 new bitcoin ATMs appeared in the world in 2021. Their number has grown by about 2.4 times over the year and is very close to 34,000. The vast majority of these are still in the United States. Genesis Coin is the leader among ATM manufacturers, having installed 13,996 ATMs. It is followed by General Bytes with 7,514. The top three is closed by BitAccess with 4,875 ATMs.

- MicroStrategy increased investments in bitcoin by $94 million. The company's CEO Michael Saylor announced the purchase of 1.9 thousand BTC at an average price of $49,200 per coin. The software developer currently owns 124,391 BTC, which is valued at $6.1 billion. In total, the company spent about $3.7 billion on the purchase of cryptocurrency, so the average price of 1 BTC in its ownership is $30,100.
The head of MicroStrategy is a strong proponent of digital assets and believes bitcoin will become the 21st century's premier store of value. As for China's anti-cryptocurrency measures, Michael Saylor called them a “trillion-dollar mistake”.

- The head of the investment company Ava Labs, John Wu, expressed the opinion in an interview with CNBC that the capitalization of the crypto market will exceed $5 trillion in 2022. According to Wu's forecast, digital assets have the potential to double their market value in the coming year. (The capitalization is $2.25 trillion at the time of writing this review).
According to the head of Ava Labs, cryptocurrencies will be the only asset class that can withstand both the actions of the Fed and the record increase in inflation, which reached its maximum values in the US in almost 40 years in early December 2021. Wu also claims that the share of bitcoin will fall below 30% with the growth of the crypto market, although the price may exceed $75,000 per coin.

- According to cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, bitcoin has already bottomed out, although many traders believe the bearish trend will continue. According to Cowen, it can be more revealing sometimes to value bitcoin not in the BTC/USD pair, but in comparison with other assets. As an example, the expert suggests looking at BTC paired with the S&P500 index. Bitcoin has already reached critical support here, Cowen believes. “If you look at bitcoin in the mirror of the stock market, it is testing levels that were tested back in September.”
However, the analyst does not rule out that the main cryptocurrency may return to the level of $40,000 or $42,000. “Anything is possible in the case of investment,” he writes. “All models can be wrong, although some can be useful.”

- Another fraudulent account of Vitalik Buterin has been found on Instagram. According to users, the owner of this account is “pulling followers into classic cryptocurrency fraud schemes.” He encourages subscribers to send him direct messages which contain passphrases for crypto wallets, or persuades them to send him cryptocurrency, promising to return three times as much.
It turns out that the real Vitalik Buterin does not have an official Instagram account, which is what the scammer decided to take advantage of, gaining 643,000 subscribers. The fake account was registered in Israel more than two years ago. However, it is not the only one. If you search Instagram for the name of the Ethereum creator, you will see more than a dozen accounts, many of which are called “Vitalik Biterin_official”.

- Notorious entrepreneur, co-founder of Block.One, former actor and former US presidential candidate Brock Pierce is confident that bitcoin can reach $200,000 this year. Governments are printing excessive amounts of money, thereby fueling inflation, and this will be the main reason for BTC to take off. “I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin trades for $100,000. It is quite possible that it can jump over $200,000 for a moment,” Pierce said optimistically.

- Anthony Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of Nexo, a major cryptocurrency lender (over $ 6 billion), exudes optimism like Brock Pierce. “I think bitcoin will reach $100,000 this year, perhaps by the middle of this year,” Trenchev said.

- Economist Alex Kruger expects the main cryptocurrency to grow in early January, but then bears may enter the scene and the reason for this is the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve. “If the report on inflation on January 12 shows an excess of its level,” the specialist explains, “then investors should expect an exit from risky assets on the eve of the FRS meeting on January 26.”

- American billionaire and founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio said he is impressed by the fact that bitcoin has managed to stand the test of time and agreed with his fellow billionaire Bill Miller is that one should allocate 1-2% of one's net profit for this cryptocurrency. He talks about this in his new book, which is a macroeconomic explanation of why bitcoin will become a $10 trillion asset.
Many members of the crypto community have perceived this billionaire's work as a 550-page advertisement for bitcoin. However, Dalio also warns about the risks for this cryptocurrency in this book. The financier believes that a new alternative may appear in the market due to the nature of the evolutionary process. The billionaire predicts that capital will flow into non-fungible tokens and other coins in the future, for diversification purposes. At the same time, he did not purchase NFTs himself, but the mania accompanying this innovation causes him some interest.
The head of the world's largest hedge fund still does not rule out that governments can outlaw bitcoin, as they once outlawed gold and silver. “Alternative currency is a threat to any government. Each of them wants a monopoly on their currency," Dalio writes.

- Kevin O'Leary, an American entrepreneur and star of the popular business and finance show Shark Tank, said that he is ready to increase the share of cryptocurrencies in his investment portfolio to 20%. However, he is waiting for clearer regulation of the industry to do this.
O'Leary had previously been a crypto sceptic, but these assets already occupy about 10% of his portfolio now, a significant part of them are stablecoins pegged to the US dollar. This is how he is trying to protect himself from inflation of the world reserve currency. According to the entrepreneur, his optimism towards stablecoins is shared by many institutional investors. At the same time, O'Leary has a different attitude to bitcoin due to its significant volatility: “You will not invest 20% or 30% of your portfolio in bitcoin if you are an institutional investor, you simply will not. And stablecoins may well get such an allocation,” he said.

- Bitcoin markets have been consolidating since the start of the year, but chain metrics paint a more positive picture as more and more assets become illiquid. Glassnode examined the supply performance of bitcoin in its report dated January 03, 2022. The results showed that while the asset has been trading sideways so far this year, the illiquid supply has accelerated and now accounts for 76% of the total.
Glassnode defines illiquidity as moving BTC to a wallet with no history of spending. The liquid stock of BTC, which is 24%, is in wallets that regularly spend or trade coins.
The figures indicate that more and more bitcoin is being transferred to storage, which indicates an increase in accumulation. The reduction in highly liquid supply also hints that there is no need to expect a major sell-off or surrender to the bears in the near future.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. 

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 10 - 14, 2022

EUR/USD: Awaiting the January FOMC Meeting

The EUR/USD pair has been in a sideways trend for seven weeks in a row, moving along the horizon 1.1300 in the 1.1220-1.1385 channel. Even the publication of the protocols could not get it out of this state of the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which confirmed the seriousness of this central bank's intentions to tighten monetary policy and strengthen dollars. Apparently, the regulator is frightened by the rate of inflation in the country. In addition, it did not expect the Omicron coronavirus strain to have a significant negative impact on economic activity in the United States.

To normalize the situation, the Fed decided to finally stop the printing press and move on to raise interest rates. The roadmap for the near future includes three main points: 1) the curtailment of the emergency stimulus program in March; 2) three increases in the key rate in 2022, the first of which may also occur in March, after which 3) the regulator will begin to normalize the balance.

These intentions of the Fed led to a sharp outflow of funds from risky assets. Stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes collapsed, while US Treasury yields and the DXY dollar index went up. Although, it should be noted that the strengthening of the US currency was insignificant: the dollar won back only 45 points against the euro, dropping the EUR/USD pair from 1.1345 to the Pivot Point 1.1300.

The release of data from the US labor market on Friday, January 7th could be another important event of the week. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) was expected to grow from 249K to 400K. However, it fell to 199K instead. On the other hand, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 3.9% against the forecast of 4.1%. Thus, investors did not receive any clear signals, and the pair completed the weekly session near the upper border of the side corridor, at 1.1360.

According to some experts, the difference in the hawkish attitude of the Fed and the dovish attitude of the ECB should eventually lead to a further strengthening of the dollar and the movement of the EUR/USD pair to the south.

Recall that the European regulator, although it raised the inflation forecast for 2022 at its last meeting in 2021, still considers it a temporary phenomenon, which is why it is not worth it yet to worry. It was announced once again that the refinancing rate will remain at the current level until inflation reaches the target level of 2.0% and will remain there for a long time. Eventually, the “main” result of the December meeting of the ECB was the head of the bank Christine Lagarde's statement that the rate hike in 2022 was “very unlikely”.

Strategists of the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep) have voted for the strengthening of the US currency. They believe that the EUR/USD pair will fall to the 1.1100 zone in Q2 and Q4 of this year, and it will be even lower at 1.1000 in Q4.  Analysts of one of the largest financial conglomerates in the world, HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) are in solidarity with ING, predicting a downward trend of this pair as well.

CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) designated the following route for EUR/USD: Q2 - 1.1100, Q3 - 1.1000, Q4 - 1.1000. The JP Morgan financial holding assessed the pair's prospects more modestly, pointing to the level of 1.1200.

 However, there is an opposite opinion among experts. For example, Barclays Bank already considers the dollar to be highly overvalued. Therefore, it is expected to depreciate moderately against the backdrop of rising risk appetites and commodity prices, caused by the recovery of the global world economy and cooling inflation. The Barclays scenario written for EUR/USD looks like this: Q1 - growth to 1.1600, Q2 - 1.1800, Q3 and Q4 - movement in the 1.1900 zone.

Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's rate hike will proceed fairly smoothly, while other central banks will move from dovish to hawkish politics. This will lead to a convergence in the actions of regulators, put pressure on the dollar and raise the EUR/USD pair to 1.1800. The Goldman Sachs strategists call the same goal.

As for the near term, despite the poor NFP indicators, we can expect that the pair will continue to move along the level of 1.1300 until the January Fed meeting, fluctuating in in the range of 1.1220-1.1385 with the predominance of bearish sentiment. 70% of analysts agree with this forecast. 15% have taken a neutral position and another 15% side with the bulls.

The readings of the indicators on D1 are inconsistent as they are under the influence of a multi-week sideways trend. Among the oscillators, 60% point to the north, but 20% are already signaling that the pair is overbought, 20% point south, and 20% point east. Trend indicators have 55% green and 45% red.

The nearest resistance level is 1.1385, then 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is at 1.1275, followed by 1.1220. This is followed by the last November 24 low of 1.1185 and the zone 1.1075-1.1100.

The economic calendar of the coming week is highlighted by the publication on January 12, 13 and 14 of a whole pool of macro-statistics from the USA. It will include consumer price indices and retail sales indices, producer price indices, and retail sales volumes in December 2021.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawks vs Fed Hawks

The fact that, unlike the Fed and the ECB, the Bank of England launched an attack on rising prices in December made a strong impression on the market. After inflation in the UK rose to 5.1%, reaching a 10-year peak, the regulator raised the rate for the first time in three years from 0.1% to 0.25%. The decision was made despite the worsening epidemiological situation due to the new coronavirus strain. According to the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, the number one task is to curb price pressure on the economy and society.

Of course, the rate hike by 15 basis points cannot be called significant, but, most importantly, the first step has already been taken, and the market expects the second rate hike in February.

Such expectations continue to support the British currency, and the GBP/USD pair updated its eight-week high on January 05, reaching 1.3598. The finish of the five-day period took place slightly lower, at 1.3590.

Strategists at the British investment Barclays Bank believe that the pound is still very undervalued, and that the policy of the US Federal Reserve will eventually lead to a moderate depreciation of the dollar. They do not exclude that due to the new wave of COVID-19 and difficulties in relations with the EU due to Brexit, the pair may drop to 1.3300 in Q1. However, then it will go up again (Q2 - 1.3700, Q3 - 1.4000) and will return to the 2021 highs by the end of the year (Q4), rising to the level of 1.4200.

Capital Economics, one of the leading independent research centers in the UK, has taken the opposite position. Its specialists, on the contrary, expect the pound to weaken, and refer to a combination of 1) weak economic growth, 2) slowdown in inflation and 3) slowness of the Bank of England. These three factors, in their opinion, may lead to the fact that the UK regulator decides to raise the rate only to 0.5% in the coming months, instead of 1.0%, which will greatly disappoint the markets.

But, in addition to the growth and fall of the British currency, there is a third scenario. ING Group analysts predict that the pound will be somewhere in the middle of a triangle of a stronger US dollar, stable commodity currencies and weaker low-yielding currencies. Therefore, according to their scenario, the GBP/USD pair will move sideways along the horizon of 1.3400.

If we talk about the near future of the pair, 40% of analysts vote for its growth above the level of 1.3600, 50% vote for a fall below 1.3400 and 10% for a sideways trend.

The indicators on D1 have a pretty summery mood. Among the oscillators, 100% is colored green, although 25% of them are already in the overbought zone. Among trend indicators, 90% are green and only 10% are red.

The supports are located at 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. Resistance levels are 1.3600, 1.3735, 1.3835.

Important macro-statistics from the UK will be scarce next week. We can only note the data on the volume of production in the manufacturing industry, which will become known on Tuesday January 11 and Friday January 14.
 
USD/JPY: Pair at 5-Year High

The color of the indicators for this pair is also predominantly green. However, unlike GBP/USD, this does not indicate a weakening of the dollar, but, on the contrary, its strengthening.

We wrote a week ago that Japan needs a weak national currency. Thus, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has recently said that a weak yen would rather help the country's economy than harm it. According to the senior official, if the yen falls, it will support exports and corporate profits. And if you look at the USD/JPY chart, his words do not differ from the deeds: the pair updated its high on January 04 and rose to the point where it has not been seen since January 2017, to the height of 116.35.

According to ING Group experts, the growth will not stop there, and we will see the pair at a height of 120.00 by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley also prefers the dollar, expecting growth to 118.00. On the contrary, Goldman Sachs believes that the pair will fall to 111.00 by 2023.

The pair finished last week at 115.55. As already mentioned, despite the slight correction, most of the indicators on D1 point north. Among the oscillators there are 90% of those (10% of them are signaling the pair being overbought), the remaining 10% are colored neutral gray. Among trend indicators, 85% recommend buying, 15% - selling. Experts also agree with the indicators: 80% of them side with the bulls, 0% for the bears, 20% choose neutrality. Support levels are 115.50, 115.00, 114.25, 113.75, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance level is 116.35.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Full Crypto Winter? Or Temporary Freezes?

it is the middle of winter in the northern hemisphere of the planet Earth. And the weather on the crypto market is corresponding, below zero. Quotes are falling, and there is not even a hint of warming so far. Another cold wave arose after the news appeared on the night of January 06 that the US Federal Reserve is ready to raise the key interest rate earlier and at a faster pace than was expected. This became clear from the published minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Inspired by this news, the bears went on the attack again. Anti-government unrest in Kazakhstan added anxiety to investors. Recall that a part of the miners immigrated there after the ban on mining in China, as a result of which Kazakhstan took the 2nd place in the world in BTC production (TOP-3: USA - 35.4%, Kazakhstan - 18.1%, Russia - 11.23%). The Internet was cut off due to the unrest in Kazakhstan, which led to a significant decrease in the hash rate on the BTC network.

These two events caused the BTC/USD pair to break through support around $46,000, where the 200-day moving average was passing, and fell below $42,000. Bitcoin's Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to the Extreme Fear zone, hitting 15 points out of 100, indicating panic reigning in the market. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell to 39.65%, hitting the May 2021 lows. (Recall that it was 95.88% at the maximum in 2013). Naturally, the collapsed bitcoin pulled the entire crypto market along with it. If its total capitalization was $2.439 trillion on December 27, it lost almost 19% by January 7 and fell to $1.980 trillion, breaking through an important psychological level of $2 trillion.

It should be noted that the attack of bears on the eve of the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve on January 26 was predictable. Our weekly crypto news review quoted economist Alex Kruger as saying that “investors should be expected to exit risky assets ahead of the Fed meeting.” Which is exactly what happened.

The next line of active defense of the bulls, according to a number of experts, awaits bears in the $39,500- $41,900 zone. It is there, near the low of last April 12, is the range of high liquidity, according to the TradingView publication. It was not withdrawn even before the last wave of the asset's rally, when the price of bitcoin hit an all-time high.

Despite the fact that the crypto market is falling for the eighth week in a row, many experts and investors are hoping for the imminent arrival of the crypto spring. For example, Block.One co-founder, former actor and former US presidential candidate Brock Pierce is confident that bitcoin could reach $200,000 this year. Governments are printing excessive amounts of money, thereby fueling inflation, and this will be the main reason for BTC to take off. “I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin trades for $100,000. It is quite possible that it can jump over $200,000 for a moment,” this influencer said optimistically.

Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of Nexo, a major cryptocurrency lender (more than $6 billion), heralds a stellar future for the main digital asset. “I think bitcoin will reach $100,000 this year, perhaps by the middle of this year,” he predicts.

The head of the investment company Ava Labs, John Wu, expressed the opinion in an interview with CNBC that the capitalization of the crypto market will exceed $5 trillion in 2022. According to Wu's forecast, digital assets have the potential to at least double their market value in the next year.

According to the head of Ava Labs, cryptocurrencies will be the only asset class that can withstand both the actions of the Fed and the record increase in inflation, which reached its maximum values in the US in almost 40 years in early December 2021. Wu also claims that the share of bitcoin will fall below 30% with the growth of the crypto market, although the price may exceed $75,000 per coin.

An interesting way to assess the prospects of the flagship cryptocurrency was proposed by analyst Benjamin Cowen. In his opinion, bitcoin has already bottomed out, although its decline may continue, somewhere up to $40,000. According to Cowen, it can be more revealing sometimes to value bitcoin not in the BTC/USD pair, but in comparison with other assets. As an example, he suggests looking at BTC paired with the S&P500 index. According to the expert, bitcoin has already reached critical support here, as “it is testing levels that were tested back in September”.

The experts of Glassnode are in solidarity with Benjamin Cowen, although they use completely different methods of market analysis. According to their estimates, the BTC market indicators paint a fairly positive picture, since an increasing amount of this asset is becoming illiquid. Glassnode examined the dynamics and the supply performance of bitcoin in its report dated January 03, 2022. The results showed that the growth of illiquid asset supply accelerated last year, which now accounts for 76% of the total. Glassnode defines illiquidity as moving BTC to a wallet with no history of spending. The liquid stock of BTC, which is 24%, is in wallets that regularly spend or trade coins.

The figures indicate that more and more bitcoin is being transferred to storage, which indicates an increase in accumulation. The reduction in highly liquid supply also hints that there is no need to expect a major sell-off or surrender to the bears in the near future.

It will not be long to wait until the Fed meeting on January 26. We will see then whether such estimates are right. In conclusion, we just recall the words of the aforementioned Benjamin Cowen.  “Anything is possible in the case of investment,” he writes. “All models can be wrong, although some can be useful...”

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/ 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- China's Supreme Economic Planning Authority has officially declared crypto mining "obsolete", backing up the government's efforts to eradicate the industry entirely. The National Development and Reform Commission made the announcement on Monday, January 10, explaining along the way that the country's economy is moving towards a model that favors cleaner, less resource-intensive industries. According to business consultancy Dezan Shira & Associate, the “obsolete” label refers not only to mining, but also to other technologies that will be banned from investment and should be phased out.
As a reminder, China had been the world leader in this industry until last year, when government bans drove most of the crypto miners out of the country, 

- The global adoption of cryptocurrencies will jump from the current 5% to 20% in 2022. This forecast was given by the CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao in an article for the Indian version of Fortune. The main drivers, in his opinion, will be the SocialFi, GameFi and NFT sectors.
Regarding India, Zhao noted the importance of government support for blockchain and cryptocurrency innovation, regardless of asset classification. According to the NASSCOM report, it is expected that the crypto market in the country will reach $241 million by 2030 and potentially create 877 thousand jobs. The organization also predicts an increase in the inflow of funds from retail investors in digital assets to $15.6 billion from $6.6 billion currently.
The head of Binance stressed that India is poised to “become a leader in blockchain and cryptocurrencies.” “In addition to banking and financial services, DLT technology can improve the efficiency of land transactions, supply chains, agriculture and corporate sustainability,” Zhao added. 

- According to Bloomberg, only 5% of customers surveyed by JPMorgan believe that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 by the end of 2022. More than 40% believe that it will only return to the $60,000 level. “I'm not surprised by the bearish sentiment on bitcoin. Our futures-based indicator looks oversold", said the bank's strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. According to him, the fair value of the cryptocurrency ranges from $35,000 to $73,000.

- Jack Dorsey's Block (formerly Square) payment company has opened a recruitment process to develop a next-generation bitcoin miner and a hardware wallet “for the next 100 million bitcoin users.” This is stated in the corresponding section on the company's website. “Our goal is to expand economic opportunities, starting with providing easy-to-use and reliable self-service to a global audience,” the announcement says.

- Bitcoin continues to fall in price after it reached an all-time high of $69,000 last November. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz called this a healthy pullback in a recent interview with CNBC. He believes that the main cryptocurrency will find support around $38,000-40,000, after which it will return to growth, thanks to purchases by institutional investors.
Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, has also stated that this is the best time in the current cycle to buy bitcoin.

- However, some experts consider such sentiments to be too optimistic. Thus, the ENCRY Foundation predicts that bitcoin may return to growth only after its price drops to $28,000-30,000. “The flows of liquidity to the markets will decrease in the second half of 2022, after the completion of the asset repurchase program in the United States. Then bitcoin may fall to $30,000,” the company's specialists believe.
The current levels cannot yet be described as a market bottom. This is indicated by another expert, Viktor Pershikov, a leading analyst at 8848 Invest. According to him, conditions that have not yet been observed must be fulfilled for the formation of the bottom. This is a long flat (at least two months in the current circumstances) with the accumulation of long positions and an increase in open interest, a decrease in BTC sales by market participants as well as clarification of the speed and degree of tightening of monetary policy by world central banks.
“The current state of the crypto market is characterized by emotional selling to a large extent, including at a loss, which is typical for situations when retail participants are shaken out of the market. The current decline does not pose a threat for large BTC holders and is a normal market correction before further growth," Pershikov says. In his opinion, bitcoin will spend most of the year in the price range of $30,000-70,000.

- Bitcoin is classified as a risky asset, and it moves mainly in the same direction as technology stocks. Sometimes the correlation of BTC with such assets weakens, but the overall dependence remains high.
Analysts associate the January fall in cryptocurrency with the retreat of stock indices, which is taking place against the background of the US Federal Reserve's readiness to raise the discount rate this quarter. Correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 has increased to its highest level since July 2020, according to Kaiko platform. A similar situation is observed between BTC and the Nasdaq index.

- Up to 50% of all transactions in one form or another will be made through Ethereum in 10-20 years. This was stated by Joey Krug, co-director of investments at Pantera Capital in an interview with Bloomberg.
The top manager is convinced that the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization will play an important role in global finance, and that the explosive growth of Ethereum killers will not be able to undermine its dominance. “There are many compromises in other blockchains, while Ethereum is in the best position in terms of decentralization, which is extremely important,” explained the Pantera Capital Co-Chief Investment Officer.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett said what, in his opinion, awaits Ethereum against the backdrop of a downtrend in the entire market. “One needs to be careful as long as ETH is below $4,000. If ETH returns to this area in the coming weeks and months and can gain a foothold there, then we can talk about the continuation of the strong bullish trend observed in 2021. ”Bennett himself does not mind replenishing his leading altcoin stocks at around $3,000. 
The analyst also looks at ETH against BTC and believes that the ETH/BTC pair could start a long-term rally to 0.18 BTC ($7.388) for 1 Ethereum, but this would require holding the 0.075 BTC ($3.077) level as support. 

- A resident of San Francisco (USA) Siraj Raval uses his 2018 Tesla Model 3 to mine Ethereum. To do this, he launched the corresponding free software on the Apple Mac mini M1, connecting it to the car's center console. Five graphics cards are powered by the Tesla battery.
According to Raval, he was mining for about 20 hours a day on the Tesla battery and was earning from $400 to $800 per month throughout 2021, which made such mining profitable even during the bear market. (The monthly cost of recharging the car was only $30 to $60, despite the fact that he was driving it as well.) 
However, another miner who used Tesla, Thomas Somers, doubted that much profit. “The best estimate I would give for a GPU hashrate in Model 3 would be around 7-10 MH/s. Currently, this will generate revenue of about $13 at a rate of 10 MH/s without taking into account any costs,“ Somers said.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. 

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 17 - 21, 2022

EUR/USD: Rumors That Drive the Markets

The weather on the market is quite often determined by rumors which have very little to do with reality. Or nothing at all. But those who spread them can earn good money by speculating on them. Something similar seems to have happened last week.

Recall that the EUR/USD pair has been in a sideways trend since November, fluctuating in the range of 1.1220-1.1385. And most analysts voted for the continuation of such a movement a week ago, with a predominance of bearish sentiment. The US Fed's hawkish intentions to end the emergency stimulus program, raise interest rates, and start normalizing the balance sheet were an argument in favor of the dollar's strength.

Note that neither the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, nor other officials of the American central bank have ever said or even hinted that the rate could be raised four times during 2022. It is unclear where this figure came from, but rumors about such an opportunity began to be actively exaggerated and, as a result, many investors believed in it.

Speaking in the US Congress on Tuesday, January 11, Jerome Powell just repeated what he had already voiced earlier. He said once again that the Fed is going to raise the refinancing rate at least twice this year in order to combat a record inflation in forty years, and that if necessary, it can be raised three times. That is, nothing new was actually said. But the market was waiting for the number "four” and was disappointed because it did not sound.

As a result, the DXY dollar index went into a deep peak, closing below the 50-day moving average, and the EUR/USD pair, instead of moving south, went north.

Thanks to US inflation data, the euro further strengthened its position the next day, on Wednesday, January 12, and the pair EUR/USD, having broken through the border of the medium-term sideways channel, went further up. The breakdown of resistance in the 1.1385 zone served as a trigger for a correction after the strengthening of the dollar that began in May 2021 and the subsequent month-and-a-half sideways trend. The weekly high was reached on the morning of Friday, January 14 at the height of 1.1482.

US retail sales and consumer confidence data released at the end of the week were much worse than previous figures, confirming the negative impact of the Omicron coronavirus strain on the US economy. It is not yet possible to predict exactly how much they will affect the next steps of the Fed. But, judging by the reaction of the market, investors decided that such statistics would push the regulator to take more decisive action. As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished at 1.1415.

Of course, the dollar may retreat a little more in the short term. However, the difference between the hawkish policy of the Fed and the dovish policy of the ECB should still support the USD. Moreover, the head of the Fed once again stressed in recent comments that the fight against inflation is a top priority for the US regulator, and expressed confidence that the US economy will cope with the rate increase.

Also, according to a number of experts, the increase in rates may occur more often than once a quarter, as was the case in the previous cycle of monetary tightening. However, this is just an opinion so far that can give rise to another wave of rumors and expectations. Investors expect to find out what will happen in reality following the results of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on January 26-27.

At the time of writing, 75% of D1 oscillators are green and 25% are giving signals EUR/USD is overbought. Trend indicators have 65% green and 35% red. Among the experts, the majority (75%) does not exclude the growth of the pair in the coming week. However, the weather vane of opinions turns 180 degrees in the forecast for February, and here it is already 75% of analysts who are in favor of the dollar strengthening. Resistances are located at the levels of 1.1450, 1.1480, 1.1525, 1.1570 and 1.1615. Support levels and zones are 1.1385-1.1400, 1.1300, 1.1275, 1.1220. This is followed by the November 24 low of last year at 1.1185 and the 1.1075-1.1100 zone.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, we can note the release of data on the consumer market of the Eurozone on Monday January 17 and Thursday January 20. The ECB's statement on monetary policy and the issue of statistics on the US labor market are also expected on Thursday. The head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, is to speak on Friday, January 21.

GBP/USD: Bank of England vs Fed: a Game to Stay Ahead

Naturally, in addition to the meetings of the FRS and the ECB, the meeting of the Bank of England will also take place in January. It should be borne in mind that, unlike its peers, this regulator started attacking rising prices back in December, and this made a strong impression on the market. After inflation in the UK rose to 5.1%, reaching a 10-year peak, the Central bank of the kingdom raised the rate from 0.1% to 0.25% for the first time in three years. The decision was made despite the worsening epidemiological situation due to a new coronavirus strain. And here the opinion of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, coincided with that of Jerome Powell: for both, the No. 1 task was to reduce price pressure on the economy and society. But the position of the former looks more hawkish, although the rate increase by 15 basis points is not significant. But the first step has been taken, and the market expects a second rate hike in February.

Such expectations continue to support the British currency, thanks to which the GBP/USD pair was able to update the high of the last eleven weeks, reaching the height of 1.3748. However, it failed to break above the 200-day SMA, and the last chord of the five-day week, after the strengthening of the dollar in the second half of Friday, January 14, sounded at 1.3678.

According to 60% of analysts, the GBP/USD pair may make another attempt to rise above the 1.3800 horizon in the coming days. This scenario is supported by 90% of trend indicators on D1 and 80% of oscillators. The remaining 20% signal that the pair is overbought. However, as in the case of EUR/USD, the scales tilt in favor of the bears, when moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast, and here it is already 55% that are waiting for the pair to move down.

Supports are located at 1.3659, 1.3600, 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The resistance levels are 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900.

Important macro data from the UK will suffice next week. There will be data on unemployment and the average wages in the country on Tuesday, January 18. Then, the consumer price index will be known the next day. In addition, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will speak on Wednesday, January 19, and retail sales for December 2021 will be published on Friday, January 19. This is an important indicator of consumer spending, which also correlates with consumer confidence and is considered as an indicator of the UK economy development pace. According to forecasts, it is expected to fall from 1.4% to minus 0.6%.

USD/JPY: The Yen Strength Is the Weak Dollar

USD/JPY dropped from 116.35 high (high since January 2017) to 113.47 last week on the back of Jerome Powell's speech and lower US Treasury yields. However, the ultra-dove position of the Japanese regulator is unlikely to further strengthen the yen. The dollar seems to be gaining strength again, and the pair went up again at the end of the weekly session, rising to the level of 114.18.

With USD/JPY moving south for the last week and a half, most of the indicators on D1 turned red. Among the oscillators, these are 80% of them, 10% give signals of the pair being oversold, and 10% have already changed their color to green. Among trend indicators, 60% recommend selling, 40% recommend buying. Among experts, 50% vote for the growth of the pair, 40% for its fall, and 10% have taken a neutral position.

Support levels are 113.50, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 114.40-114.65, then there are levels 115.00, 115.45, 116.00 and 116.35.

The decision of the Bank of Japan on the key interest rate will be announced on Tuesday, January 18. And it will highly likely remain at the same negative level as before, minus 0.1%. As we wrote earlier, according to this regulator, the country does not need a strong currency, and a weak yen is more likely to help the country's economy, as it supports exports and corporate profits.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: And Here Too, Thank You Jerome Powell

Satoshi Nakamoto launched the bitcoin mainnet by mining the genesis block with 50 BTC in January 2009. Only some 13 years have passed since then,  and The National Development and Reform Commission of China declares crypto mining “obsolete” in January 2022. It follows from the official statement of this top economic planning body that preference will now be given to cleaner and less resource-intensive industries, and mining is on the list of "obsolete" technologies that will be banned from investment and must be eliminated.

William Shakespeare was right; nothing lasts forever under the moon. And after digital currencies were declared “persona non grata” in China, the center of influence on the crypto market shifted completely to the United States. Another proof of this was last week, when a few words from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell were enough to stop the fall of bitcoin and turn the trend of the crypto market upwards.

Speaking at the US Senate Banking Committee, Powell said that stablecoins can be used with the Central Bank official digital currencies CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency is fiat money in digital form, which are issued and provided by the Central Bank). But this is not what allowed crypto quotes to move north, but the general weakening of the dollar and the return of investors' risk appetites.

As mentioned above, Jerome Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve has not yet decided to reduce its balance sheet by almost $9 trillion, and that there will be no four rate hikes in 2022, but no more than three. As a result, the DXY dollar index went down, while stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes went up.

BTC/USD dropped to $39,660 on January 10. It has not fallen this low since September 2021. However, then, following the growth of the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, it rose to $44,300  on January 12, and the total capitalization of the crypto market  exceeded the psychologically important level of $2 trillion once again, reaching $2.091 trillion. But the Crypto Fear & Greed Index did not get out of the Extreme Fear zone, although it rose from 15 to 21 points.

It is clear that it is too early to talk about the beginning of a new rally in the crypto market. The BTC/USD pair is 35% below its all-time high, and the total capitalization is still very far from the almost $3 trillion that it reached on November 10, 2021. And, if the dollar starts to gain strength again, we can expect digital assets to return to a downward trend.

Of course, crypto enthusiasts predict as usual that top coins will soon rise to new heights. Changpeng Zhao, CEO of the Binance crypto exchange, claims in an article for Fortune that global adoption of cryptocurrencies will jump from the current 5% to 20% in 2022. And Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz sees the 35% drop as just a “healthy pullback.” In his opinion, the main cryptocurrency will find support around $38,000-40,000, after which it will return to growth. Nigel Green, CEO of consulting company DeVere Group, also states that now is the most convenient time to buy bitcoin in the current cycle.

However, some experts consider such sentiments to be too optimistic. Thus, the ENCRY Foundation predicts that bitcoin may return to growth only after its price drops to $28,000-30,000. “The flows of liquidity to the markets will decrease in the second half of 2022, after the completion of the asset repurchase program in the United States. Then bitcoin may fall to $30,000,” the company's specialists explain.

The current levels cannot yet be described as a market bottom. This is indicated by another expert, Viktor Pershikov, a leading analyst at 8848 Invest. According to him, conditions that have not yet been observed must be fulfilled for the formation of the bottom. This is a long flat (at least two months in the current circumstances) with the accumulation of long positions and an increase in open interest, a decrease in BTC sales by market participants as well as clarification of the speed and degree of tightening of monetary policy by world central banks.

“The current state of the crypto market is characterized by emotional selling to a large extent, including at a loss, which is typical for situations when retail participants are shaken out of the market. The current decline does not pose a threat for large BTC holders and is a normal market correction before further growth," Pershikov says. In his opinion, bitcoin will spend most of the year in the price range of $30,000-70,000.

It is clear that a serious growth of BTC is possible only with the same growth of interest in it from institutional investors. But they seem to be a problem for now. According to Bloomberg, only 5% of customers surveyed by JPMorgan believe that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 by the end of 2022. More than 40% believe that it will only return to the $60,000 level. According to bank strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the fair value of the cryptocurrency ranges from $35,000 to $73,000.

As for bitcoin's main competitor, ethereum, crypto analyst Justin Bennett believes that “as long as ETH is below $4,000, you need to be careful” against the backdrop of a downtrend in the entire market. If only ETH returns to this area in the coming weeks and months and can gain a foothold there, then we can talk about the continuation of the strong bullish trend observed in 2021."

The analyst also looks at ETH against BTC and believes that the ETH/BTC pair could start a long-term rally to 0.18 BTC ($7.388) for 1 ETH, but this would require holding the 0.075 BTC ($3.077) level as support.

All of the above shows that the situation is currently ambiguous. And then how do you make money on virtual currencies? The answer to this question is given in our humorous crypto life hacks column by San Francisco (USA) resident Siraj Raval, who uses his 2018 Tesla Model 3 car for ethereum mining. To do this, he launched the corresponding free software on the Apple Mac mini M1, connecting it to the car's center console. Five graphics cards are powered by the Tesla battery. According to Raval, he mined for about 20 hours a day this way and earned from $400 to $800 a month during 2021.

The numbers do look attractive. It only remains to find about $50,000 to buy such a car and find out if the Chinese authorities will not consider this method of mining harmful and obsolete.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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https://nordfx.com/ 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Canadian entrepreneur and Shark Tank TV star Kevin O'Leary spoke to Anthony Pompliano about how sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East are considering mining possibilities. In his opinion, they can enter this space within the next two to three years focusing on the shares of "environmentally friendly" companies.
The businessman did not rule out the creation of his own mining company. In addition to the approval of his initiative by the authorities, O'Leary would like to enlist the support of the inhabitants of the territory associated with its deployment. The entrepreneur called the creation of opportunities for mining companies to reflect income from cryptocurrency mining in financial statements as another condition. He believes this will create an incentive to invest for O'Leary and other financiers.

- The bubble is deflating, so the bitcoin price may fall to $30,000. This opinion was expressed by specialists from the investment company Invesco in their list of “incredible but possible” results for 2022. “Bitcoin’s mass marketing reminds us of stockbrokers' activity leading up to the 1929 crash,” they write.
According to the experts, the drop in quotes from highs around $69,000 to $42,000 in early January is exactly in line with the bubble pattern. This trajectory assumes that the asset will lose 45% of its value within 12 months after the peak. That is, the price will fall to $34,000-$37,000 by the end of October and to $30,000 by the end of 2022.
At the same time, Invesco admitted that they made a mistake with the forecast for 2021, when they predicted a fall in the BTC price below $10,000. Analysts explained their mistake by the fact that bitcoin seems to pass not through one, but through a series of bubbles.

- Guido Buehler, CEO of SEBA licensed cryptocurrency bank, gave an opposite forecast. He believes that digital gold could rise to $75,000 by the end of 2022, according to CNBC. “Our internal valuation models point to a price between $50,000 and $75,000. I am quite sure that we will see this level,” he said, adding that the volatility of bitcoin will remain high, but the asset will be able to test new record levels, the only question is the timing.

TV presenter, filmmaker and former trader Max Kaiser still believes that bitcoin will hit $220,000 this year. He explained in another interview why his forecast was not realized last year. “As for 2021, I said we would get to $220,000 per coin, which is a typical four-year cycle. What we had in 2021 was a massive mining collapse in China, the hash rate fell by 50%. We have recovered since then and are about to reach a new all-time record hash rate. That's why I'm moving my goal from 2021 to 2022."
“There is a price, there is a hash rate and there is a complexity setting: these are three things you need to keep in mind,” Max Keiser explains. “I have always said that the price lags behind the hash rate, so once we see its new all-time highs, new all-time highs of the bitcoin price will follow.”

- Another cryptocurrency analyst, Justin Bennett, believes that bitcoin is in for a decent rally in the near future. He reviewed BTC historical price movement models that show that the asset is expected to rise by 20-30%. “You can see since the beginning of 2021 that when bitcoin finds a low below the liquidation level, it makes a move up. The average rate of such movement is about 63%, and the lowest was in April, about 27%. – says the expert. “If you take this data and look at the low around $40,000, then a minimum move of around 27% would take the market to around $50,000. This is highly likely given that the $50,000-53,000 range is very important, and sellers will defend this range as resistance. But bitcoin first needs to break the $45,600 mark to start the rally.”

- The number of vacancies related to the cryptocurrency industry in the US increased by 395% in 2021. Such data is provided by the LinkedIn social network. The sample has included ads containing the words "bitcoin", "ethereum", "blockchain" and "cryptocurrency". At the same time, the number of vacancies in the technology sector increased by 98% over the year.
LinkedIn noted that while most jobs were posted by companies specializing in software and finance, interest in crypto-related candidates was also shown in other areas. We are talking about consulting, accounting, hardware and recruiting.

- The owners of the fake YouTube channel of the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor lured 26 BTC (about $1.1 million) from one of the users. The scheme of fraud was common and widespread: they promised on behalf of Saylor to “double” any amount sent to the specified address in cryptocurrency. No matter how much is written about this type of scam, there are still those who fall for this bait, driven by greed.
“489 of these scam channels were launched on YouTube last week. We complain about them every 15 minutes, they are blocked after a few hours, but scammers launch new ones,” the real Saylor wrote in his verified Twitter account.

— According to Peter Brandt, a Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, he expects a further decline in the price of ethereum. To date, this altcoin has already fallen in price by 36% from its all-time high of $4,878 recorded on November 10, 2021. Brandt is pessimistic as he believes that from a technological standpoint, ethereum is “a very complex, costly, and user-inconvenient platform in terms of its use for NFTs, special tokens, and its involvement in the metaverse.” Based on this, Brandt concludes that ETH will lose points in the eyes of investors, giving way to competitors.

- Data from the Glassnode platform shows that investors are buying up ethereum, despite the fall in its value. As mentioned above, this digital currency has lost 36% of its value in two months. At the same time, the number of ETH wallets with a non-zero balance reached a new high of 73,025,019. Network activity is also increasing, which indicates the desire of investors to take advantage of the correction and buy as many tokens as possible. The average daily number of transactions on the blockchain exceeds 1.2 million at the moment.
According to Glassnode analysts, ETH will trade in a narrow range until a clear vector of movement for the US stock market is formed. If the capital goes into risky assets again, then the ethereum will resume the rise along with bitcoin.

- Popular analyst PlanB is considered one of the main supporters of the theory that BTC will grow to $100,000 in 2021. He developed a forecasting model for the behavior of the bitcoin price (S2F), the signals of which indicated the prospects for such a rise.
Despite the fact that the S2F forecast did not come true, PlanB continues to stick to his theory. He is confident that bitcoin has not yet realized the potential laid in it by the 2020 halving. According to the analyst, the coin is now near local lows and is preparing to renew all-time highs in March. According to the analyst, the peak value of bitcoin within the current cycle can be recorded in July-August 2022.
Analysts of the Twitter channel Root largely agreed with PlanB's opinion. They also believe that bitcoin's growth cycle is not yet complete and is ready to resume growth.

- Umar Farooq, Head of the Cryptocurrency Division at JPMorgan Onyx, compared the current level of development of the cryptocurrency market with the music streaming industry in the 90s. “There was a thing called Napster in the 90s. It was clumsy. Not everyone could use it. And 20 years later, you have Apple Music and Spotify. We live in the era of Napster. We just don't know what Spotify looks like. So I think cryptocurrencies will remain. I just don't know in what form," Umar Farooq said. According to him, the industry has already survived the era of the "Wild West" and has now become an established industry, attracting more and more users.
Earlier, the JPMorgan analyst opined that reduced volatility would enable bitcoin to reach $73,000 in 2022, and the “promised” $146,000 in the long term.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. 

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 24 - 28, 2022

EUR/USD: FOMC Meeting: the Day the Markets Are Waiting For

The main event not only of the next week, but of the whole month will certainly be the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve on January 26. Will the regulator raise interest rates now? Or in March? Or will it postpone the curtailment of incentives indefinitely? These questions remain unanswered.

Recall that the roadmap includes three main points at the moment: 1) curtailing the emergency stimulus program in March, 2) three increases in the key rate in 2022, the first of which may also occur in March, after which 3) the regulator will begin to normalize the balance. However, nothing lasts forever under the moon, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve either. So, these points are not constant at all and can be changed.

Even ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the European Central bank has already begun to react and is ready to adjust its policy if facts and figures require it. Although it is not yet very clear what “it has already begun to react” is. And “ready” is a very loose concept.

According to the same Ms. Lagarde, a too rapid rate increase could slow down the growth of the Eurozone's GDP. So why then reduce monetary stimulus and raise the key rate, especially since, according to the bank's management, the surge in inflation is a temporary phenomenon? And inflation in the US is growing faster than in the Eurozone. So let the Fed have a headache about how to stop it. And the ECB can wait until 2023 to raise rates, and at the same time see how things go overseas.

A clear difference between the US Central Bank's hawkish stance and its European counterpart's dovish stance is a strong support for the dollar, pushing the EUR/USD down. However, there are times when the actions of investors are determined not by real economic and political factors, but by rumors spread by speculators.

Something similar seems to have happened on January 11th. Speaking in the US Congress that day, Jerome Powell stated once again that in order to combat the record for forty years inflation, the Fed is going to raise the refinancing rate at least twice this year, and that if necessary, it can be raised three times. That is, nothing new was actually said. But, thanks to rumors, the market for some reason was waiting for the number "four” and was disappointed because it did not sound. As a result, the DXY dollar index went into a deep peak, and the EUR/USD pair went north instead of moving south.

Due to inflation data in the US, the euro strengthened its positions even more the next day, January 12, and the EUR/USD pair went further up having broken through the border of the medium-term side channel 1.1220-1.1385. A nine-week high was reached on the morning of January 14 at 1.1482. After that, everything went back to normal. The market realized that there were no real reasons for the euro to strengthen, and the pair found itself within the 1.1220-1.1385 channel once again on Tuesday, January 18, reaching the local bottom at 1.1300 on January 21. The final chord was played at 1.1343.

At the time of writing, most (55%) of the D1 oscillators are red, 20% are green and 25% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have 90% red and only 10% green. Among experts, the majority (55%) support the strengthening of the dollar, 45% are for its fall. The nearest resistance zone is 1.1370-1.1385, then 1.1400-1.1435, 1.1480 and 1525. The nearest support zone is 1.1300-1.1315, then 1.1275 and 1.1220. This is followed by the November 24 low of last year at 1.1185 and the 1.1075-1.1100 zone.

As for the economic calendar for the upcoming week, besides the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the subsequent press conference of its management, we can note the release of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone (Markit index) on Monday, January 24. Preliminary data on US GDP will be released on Thursday, January 27, as well as the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods. (Since the purchase of such goods usually involves large investments, these data reflect the economic situation in the United States, including the inflationary component.) And, finally, data on German GDP will be published at the end of the working week, on January 28.

GBP/USD: Rate Up Bet

The dollar strengthened its position against the pound slightly over the past week. If the GBP/USD pair was at the height of 1.3748 on January 13, it fell to 1.3545 on the evening of January 21. According to some experts, it's all about he British currency being generally overbought. After the December decision of the Bank of England to raise the interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25% for the first time in three years, the pair showed an increase of about 575 points. So the current fall of 200 points may not mean a medium-term trend reversal, but only a temporary correction.

The pound has a lot of chances to return to growth, even despite the hawkish position of the US Federal Reserve. The CPI published on January 19 showed that inflation in the UK rose to its highs in more than 15 years, reaching 5.4% (previous reading 5.1%, forecast 5.2%). The continuing growth of inflationary pressure may force the regulator to raise the key rate as early as at the next meeting on February 03. It is possible that at the same time, against the backdrop of a moderate impact of the omicron strain on the economy of the United Kingdom, plans to reduce monetary stimulus (QE) introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic may also be revised.

A survey conducted by Reuters among 45 experts showed that most of them (65%) expect the Bank of England to raise rates again on February 03, to 0.5% this time. If this happens, then, according to Scotiabank strategists, the GBP/USD pair may return to levels around 1.3800.

More than 75% of analysts expect the rate to be raised to 0.5% by the end of March. Also, according to the median forecast, the British regulator will raise the rate by another 25 basis points in the Q3 (up to a quarter earlier than expected). After that, another increase will follow, up to 1.0%, approximately at the beginning of 2023.

However, as for the forecast for the next few days, 60% of experts side with the bears, expecting the pair to fall at least to the 1.3450-1.3500 zone. Most of the indicators on D1 agree with this forecast: 60% of oscillators point to sell (although 10% are already in the oversold zone), 20% recommend buying and 20% remain neutral. Among trend indicators, 40% look up, 60% look down.

The supports are located at 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The levels and resistance zones are 1.3570-1.3600, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900.

The Bank of England meeting will only take place in early February, and there won't be much important macro data from the UK next week. The publication of the Markit business activity index may cause increased volatility on Tuesday, January 24. Although, most likely, investors will not pay much attention to it on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting.

USD/JPY: Yen as a Safe Haven

The meeting of another central bank, Japan, took place last week, on January 18. As expected, the key rate remained at the same negative level, minus 0.1%. As we wrote earlier, according to this regulator, the country does not need a strong currency, and a weak yen is more likely to help the economy, as it supports Japanese exports and corporate profits.

In general, last week's results for the USD/JPY pair can be assessed as neutral. First, it went up and rose to the height of 115.05 on Tuesday, January 18. Then the trend changed to a downtrend, and the pair dropped to where it was trading a week ago, to the zone of 113.60-114.00 by the end of the five-day period.

The Japanese currency was supported by the weakening of the risk appetite of the market. Investors began to abandon risky assets once again in favor of the yen, which plays the role of a "safe haven". The reasons for this change in sentiment were forecasts for rising inflation, uncertainty about the monetary policy of world central banks and the growth of geopolitical tensions.

The USD/JPY pair finished last week at 113.66, that is, within the trading range 113.40-114.40, where it has regularly been in the last three months. And although 60% of analysts vote for its growth, 25% for a fall and 15% for a sideways trend, the median forecast suggests that it will stay within this channel. Of course, provided that the US Federal Reserve does not present any surprises at its meeting. And you should not forget about the international political situation, there are also possible surprises, and very unpleasant ones at that.

Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are facing south, although 25% of them are already giving signals that the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, 65% recommend selling, 35% recommend buying. Support levels are 113.50, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 114.00-114.25, 114.40-114.65, then there are levels 115.00, 115.45, 116.00 and 116.35.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: It Is Not Just Winter in the Crypto Market, It Is Polar Cold

Quotes of risky assets remain under strong pressure in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq stock indices have been losing their positions for almost the entire month of January. But as for the top cryptocurrencies, they have been quite successful in repulsing bear attacks for the last two weeks. If we talk about bitcoin, buyers did their best to keep the BTC/USD pair quotes from reaching the psychologically important horizon of $40,000. However, the bears managed to break through the defense on Friday, January 21 and lower the pair to $36,160. The total capitalization of the crypto market flew down as well, falling to $1.72 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was firmly stuck in the Extreme Fear zone, dropping to 19 points.

The situation, according to a number of experts, does not bode well for cryptocurrencies at the moment. The bubble is deflating, so the bitcoin price may fall to $30,000. This opinion was expressed by specialists from the investment company Invesco, drawing an analogy with the crash of 1929.

The decline from the $69,000 highs is exactly in line with the bubble pattern, analysts say. This trajectory assumes that the asset will lose 45% of its value within 12 months after the peak. That is, according to their calculations, the price will fall to $34,000-$37,000 by the end of October and to $30,000 by the end of 2022.

At the same time, Invesco admitted that they made a mistake with the forecast for 2021, when they predicted a fall in the BTC price below $10,000. Analysts explained their mistake by saying that bitcoin seems to be going through not one, but a series of bubbles. (Although, perhaps, Invesco experts were just in a hurry, and this forecast will come true this year).

Popular analyst PlanB had made a mistake with his forecast for the past year as well. Recall that he developed a model for predicting the behavior of the bitcoin rate (S2F), the signals of which indicated the prospects for BTC to rise to $100,000 in 2021. Despite the fact that the S2F forecast did not come true, PlanB continues to stick to his theory. He is confident that bitcoin has not yet realized the potential laid in it by the 2020 halving. According to the analyst, the coin is now near local lows and is preparing to renew all-time highs in March. According to the analyst, the peak value of bitcoin within the current cycle can be recorded in July-August 2022.

Another unsuccessful predictor was TV presenter and former trader Max Kaiser. He explained In another interview why his forecast of $220,000 for bitcoin was not realized last year. “As for 2021, I said we would get to $220,000 per coin, which is a typical four-year cycle. What we had in 2021 was a massive mining collapse in China, the hash rate fell by 50%. We have recovered since then and are about to reach a new all-time record hash rate. That's why I'm moving my goal from 2021 to 2022."

“There is a price, there is a hash rate and there is a complexity setting: these are three things you need to keep in mind,” Max Keiser explains. “I have always said that the price lags behind the hash rate, so once we see its new all-time highs, new all-time highs of the bitcoin price will follow.”

Guido Buehler, CEO of SEBA cryptocurrency bank, calls a three times more modest goal. He believes that digital gold could rise to $75,000 by the end of 2022. “Our internal valuation models point to a price between $50,000 and $75,000. I am quite sure that we will see this level,” he said, adding that the volatility of bitcoin will remain high, but the asset will be able to test new record levels, the only question is the timing.

Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett's forecast can also be classified as optimistic, although the numbers here are even smaller. Bennett reviewed BTC historical price movement models that show that the asset is expected to rise by 20-30%. “It can be seen that starting from early 2021, bitcoin, finding the minimum below the liquidation level, then makes an upward movement. The average rate of such movement is about 63%, and the lowest was in April, about 27%. - the expert says. “If you take this data and look at the low around $40,000, then a minimum move of around 27% would take the market to around $50,000. This is highly likely given that the $50,000-53,000 range is very important, and sellers will defend this range as resistance.

There is no clear opinion on the future of ethereum either. Some still hope that the ETH/USD pair will meet 2023 around $7,000-10,000, while others expect the coin to crash after bitcoin. For example, Peter Brandt, a Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, expects a further decline in the price of ethereum. In his opinion, from a technological point of view, this altcoin is “a very complex, costly, and user-inconvenient platform in terms of its use for NFTs, special tokens, and its involvement in the metaverse.” Based on this, Brandt concludes that ETH will lose points in the eyes of investors, giving way to competitors.

Peter Brandt's forecast is quite controversial. Indeed, the slow protocol has led to delays in transactions and a significant increase in fees. Sometimes a transaction costs more than $50, which is very expensive compared to the competition. For example, the commission is less than a cent in Solana. However, due to its high decentralization, ethereum is still the first in terms of the use of smart contracts. At the moment, this altcoin dominates the rest of the blockchains in the DeFi sector with $157 billion of blocked funds or 66% of the total market. Its lead is even greater in the NFT sector: here ETH is almost a monopoly as its share exceeds 90%.

It is possible that its share will decrease over time due to competition, but many experts still promise a bright future for this altcoin. The transition to the proof-of-stake protocol and the subsequent network scaling should help it maintain its leading position. The “X hour” for these steps is scheduled for the Q2 2022 at the moment. However, there is a certain risk that the date will be postponed again. This does not seem to scare investors much though. According to the Glassnode platform, they are buying up coins despite the drop in their value.

Ethereum has already lost about 50% of its value in two months. At the same time, the number of ETH wallets with a non-zero balance has reached a new high of 73,025,019. Network activity is also increasing, which indicates the desire of investors to take advantage of the correction and buy as many tokens as possible. The average daily number of transactions on the blockchain exceeds 1.2 million at the moment.

According to Glassnode analysts, ETH will trade in a narrow range until a clear vector of movement for the US stock market is formed. If the capital goes into risky assets again, then the ethereum will resume the rise along with bitcoin.

But when will this happen?

And will it happen at all?

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/ 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- McDonald's fast-food chain has trolled crypto investors amid the fall of the crypto market. McDonald's joked that the owners of digital assets have to get a job in the catering industry during the bearish trend. The post was liked by the community and gained almost 100,000 likes.
In response to the fast-food joke, the CEO of the technology company MicroStrategy Michael Saylor posted his photo wearing a cap with the McDonald's logo and the caption: “Doing my best to buy more bitcoins”.
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele also reacted to the joke about bankrupt crypto investors who are forced to cook burgers. Like Michael Saylor, he tweeted a photo of himself wearing a McDonald's cap. This tweet was immediately commented on by a Shibetoshi Nakamoto, who wrote: "Welcome to the McDonald's family, sir."

- But the well-known economist and critic of bitcoin, Nouriel Roubini called on the government of El Salvador in all seriousness to impeach President Nayib Bukele because of his investments in the first cryptocurrency. According to Roubini, the country is on the verge of bankruptcy. “El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment is a real disaster: BTC holders have lost 50% [of the portfolio],” he wrote, calling Bukele a “clown” and a “criminal president” along the way.

- McDonald's trolling has not been ignored by other influencers either. So, the director of the Gemini crypto exchange Tyler Winklevoss wrote that he considers the current fall as an excellent opportunity to buy coins on the Big McBottom. And Elon Musk promised to eat the Happy Meal during the TV broadcast "if McDonald's starts accepting Dogecoin."

- The collapse of bitcoin creates an opportunity to become richer, says Robert Kiyosaki. Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author and entrepreneur said he would buy more digital gold if its price dropped to $20,000. "Profits are made when you buy, not when you sell. Bitcoin is crashing. Great news. I bought BTC for $6,000 and $9,000. I will buy more if the price tests $20,000. The time to get rich is coming."
Recall that Kiyosaki predicted a “giant stock market crash” last October and warned that the same fate awaits gold, silver and bitcoin. This is exactly what we are seeing now.

- Goldbug and bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff allowed the collapse of bitcoin below $10,000. In response, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz offered Schiff a $1 million bet. He promised to send these funds to charity or another purpose of the opponent's choice if BTC trades below $35,000 in a year. At the same time, Novogratz believes that the bear market will be long enough, and therefore does not advise buying on drawdowns now. “It will be difficult for cryptocurrencies to start a rally until the stock market bottoms out. Nevertheless, digital assets have already experienced a significant sell-off and are beginning to receive support from buyers,” he explained.

- Ton Weiss, a well-known trader, analyst and former vice president of JP Morgan Chase, does not rule out the completion of the bitcoin correction in the near future. According to him, the cryptocurrency has reached the 20-month moving average (MA), which is at the level of $34,000. Weiss claims that this is a "perfect opportunity" for a trend reversal and the asset's return to growth. According to the specialist, in the event of a rebound, the price of bitcoin will quickly return to the $40,000 level and consolidate above it.

- Another cryptocurrency analyst, Nicholas Merten predicts that despite the current market conditions, bitcoin could rise almost 7 times to $200,000 by the end of the year. Merten stated on his DataDash YouTube channel (502,000 subscribers) that if bitcoin's capitalization stays above $600 billion, it will set the stage for the coin's bull run in the coming months.
The expert recalled that all rallies occur after corrections and are often spurred on by BTC purchases at heavily discounted prices. Understanding how big players buy is the key to navigating the highly volatile cryptocurrency markets, Merten says.

- According to many market participants, bitcoin can go to the $30,000 area, and then it is likely to turn around. Charles Edwards, the founder of the crypto investment company Capriole, wrote that the signal of the NVT (Network Value to Transaction ratio) indicator shows that BTC is oversold: this situation is rare in the market. “We have entered an open buying zone,” Edwards commented on the current situation.
Recall that this indicator was proposed and is actively used by the well-known analyst Willy Woo. NVT is calculated by dividing bitcoin's market capitalization by its transaction volume (in USD) and is a popular metric to assess whether the coin is overbought or oversold.

- Scott Melker, a trader, analyst, and podcast host, reminded his subscribers that there is nothing unusual about what is happening in the market now. “People have short memories. Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 in 10 days in May. 10 DAYS!!! All this has already happened. And that was only 8 months ago. So why be so scared?" he wrote.

- The flagship cryptocurrency has captured the mind of Eric Adams, who is now the mayor of New York. It was last Friday, during an epic price drop, that he received his first paycheck in bitcoin and ethereum, which cut his US dollar pay by 15%. However, Adams did not express any regret about this, apparently believing that he would win in the end anyway. "My goal is to send a message that New York is open to technology and encourage our young people to participate in new emerging markets," says the 110th mayor of the US's largest city.

- Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, named two reasons for the current correction in the cryptocurrency market. The first of these is the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. The second problem is the imperfection and immaturity of the crypto industry. At the same time, the businessman believes that the current market conditions provide “an excellent entry point for institutional investors interested in cryptocurrencies, who have been on the sidelines so far.”
According to Saylor, a lot of institutional investors are now watching bitcoin and see that it is 40% below the all-time high and that it is consolidating. At the same time, they understand that bitcoin is supported by such serious investors as Bill Miller, regulators, senators, and congressmen, as well as large public companies.
As for MicroStrategy itself, this software developer owns 124,391 BTC. The company has spent about $3.7 billion on the acquisition of cryptocurrency. Thus, the average purchase price is $30,100 per 1 coin.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds. 

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 31 - February 04, 2022

EUR/USD: Surprises from the US Federal Reserve

The meeting of the US Federal Reserve FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and the subsequent press conference of its management was certainly the main event of the last week. JP Morgan analysts called the speech of Jerome Powell, the head of the US central bank, the most “hawkish” of all during his tenure.

As for the first increase in the federal funds rate this year, there were no surprises: it is likely to take place in March, as planned. True, Jerome Powell did not answer the question of how much it will be increased, 25 or 50 basis points (bp). But at the same time, he made it clear that the Fed will be quite “agile” and “intractable” from now on. Apparently, the regulator will no longer pay attention to either the coronavirus omicron strain or the stock indices collapse and will focus on controlling inflation.

The number of possible increases in the refinancing rate in 2022 was a real surprise for the markets. Powell's speech led to the market upgrading the probability of three increases by June from 45% to 60%. In total, there can be five or six of them this year. For example, Deutsche Bank experts forecast a 25 bp rate hike in March, May, and June, and two more acts of monetary restriction before the end of the year. And their colleagues from BNP Paribas have set their sights on six raises. There may even be seven of them If inflation continues to be at a high level in the second half of the year. After all, the head of the Fed has made it clear that the main tool to fight inflation will be the federal funds rate.

In addition, the US Central bank has decided to double the pace of rolling back its quantitative easing (QE) program. The volume of government bonds repurchases will decrease by $20 billion per month from next month (now $10 billion), and of mortgages by $10 billion (now $5 billion).

All of these hawkish signals have shown that the regulator's stance has become much tighter and have made a huge impression on the derivatives market. The direct correlation between government bond yields and the DXY dollar index was restored, and the index jumped above 97.35.

Recall that the euro is the basis of the basket of 6 world currencies that form the DXY, with a share of 57.6%. Therefore, the European currency played a leading role in the growth of the index and the strengthening of the dollar in the current situation. The difference between the Fed's hawkish stance and the ECB's dovish stance has been repeatedly spoken about. The European Central Bank intends to only start raising the rate in 2023, while its counterpart overseas will already be completing this program. And such a divergence does not bode well for the Old World currency.

The EUR/USD pair lost more than 220 points at its high in the past week alone, which was a record for the last seven months. The local bottom was found on Friday, January 28 at the level of 1.1121, followed by a slight correction and a finish at 1.1148.

Of course, if the US Federal Reserve conducts an ultra-aggressive tightening of its monetary policy, it can lead to a sharp reduction in consumer demand, with all the ensuing problems. But this is not happening so far. And it will always be possible to soften the position even if it ever happens. Therefore, the probability of the pair falling towards 1.1000 is very high. This is the figure that sounds both in the forecasts of strategists and the Internationale Nederlanden Groep, as well as the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

At the time of writing, 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on D1 are red, though 30% of the latter are in the oversold zone. Among experts, the majority (60%) are in favor of further strengthening of the dollar, 40% believe that everything is not lost for the euro yet, and the pair will be able to temporarily return to the boundaries of the medium-term side channel 1.1220-1.1385. The nearest resistance zone is located at 1.1185, followed by 1.1220, 1.1275, 1.1355-1.1385 and 1.1485. The nearest support zone is 1.1075-1.1100 and then 1.0980-1.1025.

As for the calendar of the upcoming week, the attention of the market will be mainly focused on the ECB meeting on Thursday, February 03. It is not likely to present any special surprises, and the interest rate will remain the same, at the level of 0%. However, certain changes in the monetary policy of the European regulator are still possible. And investors expect to learn about them at the final press conference.

In general, the week will be full of macro-economic statistics. There will be data on the GDP of the Eurozone and the consumer market in Germany on Monday, January 31. The volumes of retail sales in Germany, the ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector, as well as the results of a study of the European banking sector will be announced on Tuesday. There will be statistics on the Eurozone consumer market and the level of employment in the private sector in the US on Wednesday. The value of the ISM business activity index in the US services sector will become known on Thursday. And in addition to data on retail sales in the Eurozone, we are traditionally waiting for a portion of statistics from the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) on the first Friday of the month, February 04.

GBP/USD: How Will the Bank of England Respond?

The Markit Services PMI for the UK released on January 24 came in below the forecast at 53.3 versus the expected 55.0. Further, the expected active increase in rates by the Fed, and then preliminary data on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021, played on the side of the dollar. They showed an increase that no one expected: 6.9% against the forecast of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. Apparently, the US economy has not only recovered from the COVID-19 attack but has recovered so much that economic growth has even surpassed the 2019 figures.

All this has not benefited the British currency of course. And then there are the demands for the resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which the market regarded as another bearish factor. As a result, the GBP/USD pair fixed a low at 1.3357, falling by almost 400 points in two weeks.

Can the pound return to growth even despite the US Fed's hawkish stance? We are likely to get an answer to this question soon enough.­ After all, in addition to the ECB meeting, there will also be a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, February 03. How can it respond to the Americans? Of course, by a faster rate increase: according to a number of forecasts, the pound rate may be increased by another 0.25 bp, up to 0.50%.

For how long will the British currency have such support? Many analysts doubt that the actions of the Bank of England will meet market expectations, and that the regulator will act as aggressively as the Fed this year. Based on this, economists at Rabobank, the second largest bank in the Netherlands, do not exclude that the GBP/USD pair may fall below 1.3000 by the middle of the year.

As for the current situation, the level 1.3400 (range 1.3360-1.3415 to be exact) is a very strong support/resistance zone and can serve as a springboard for the pair to bounce up. This development is supported by 30% of experts. The next resistances are waiting for the pair at levels 1.3440, 1.3500-1.3525, 1.3575, 1.3650, 1.3700 and 1.3750.

70% of analysts vote for the further fall of the pair. Supports are located at 1.3360, then 1.3275, 1.3200, followed by a strong December trend reversal zone 1.3160-1.3185.

The indicators on D1 look like this: only 10% of the oscillators point to the north, the remaining 90% point to the south, of which 20% give signals that the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, all 100% look down.

In addition to the Bank of England meeting, we should pay attention to data on business activity (PMI) next week: in the manufacturing sector on Feb. 01, in the services sector on Feb. 03 and in the UK construction sector on Feb. 04.

USD/JPY: Yen Has Nothing to Answer

If the Bank of England has something to respond to the US Federal Reserve, nothing like this can be expected from the Bank of Japan with its forever negative (minus 0.1%) rate. The yen, as a safe-haven currency, is usually supported by investors running away from risky assets. But now the rising dollar and US Treasury bonds are a powerful obstacle in their way. And the Bank of Japan does not really need a strong national currency.

As a result, as most experts (60%) expected, the USD/JPY pair rushed north again. True, it failed to reach the high on January 04 at 116.35, but the rise still looks very impressive. If the pair was at the level of 113.46 on Monday, January 24, it reached the height of 115.68 by the end of the working week. The last chord of the five-day period was set at the level of 115.22.

At the time of writing, most indicators on D1 point north. Among the oscillators, there are 90% of them (10% of them give signals that the pair is overbought), the remaining 10% are colored red. Among the trend indicators, 100% recommend buying. Experts agree with the indicators: 70% of them side with the bulls, 20% with the bears, 10% are neutral. Support levels are 115.00, 114.45, 114.00, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 115.50-115.70, the nearest serious target of the bulls is a new five-year high at 116.35.

Any serious macroeconomic statistics from Japan is not expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Calm After the Storm

If we talk about cryptocurrencies, nothing terrible happened for them at the January meeting of the Fed. It had long been known that the regulator would tighten monetary policy and reduce monetary injections into the economy. As well as the fact that it will raise interest rates. Yes, this will hit risky assets, but it will draw money from the stock market in the first place. It is possible that things will not reach cryptocurrencies, as a super-speculative asset at all: the volumes are too small. 

The crypto market grew by leaps and bounds as the Fed flooded the fires of the pandemic with trillions of brand new freshly minted dollars. There will be no more inflow of this money, and it is probably not worth counting on a new crypto boom. Institutional investors will behave much more calmly, but they will not be in a hurry to part with their bitcoins and ethereums either. Everyone who wanted to sell them has already sold. Those who wanted to keep them, kept them as a long-term investment.

Of course, any surprises are possible in this industry: both pleasant and not so much so. In the meantime, the crypto market is recovering from the panic that arose before the Fed meeting. Having fallen on Monday, January 24 to $32.945, the BTC/USD pair grew a little and it is trading in the $37,000 zone on the evening of Friday, January 28 at the moment of writing this. The total market capitalization has risen from $1.51 trillion to $1.70 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown to only 24 points (11 points at the low of January 23), being stuck firmly in the Extreme Fear zone. So it is clearly premature to talk confidently even about the beginning of a recovery and a trend reversal. Moreover, the BTC/USD chart shows that the strong support that the pair relied on both in 2020 and 2021 is located in the $29,000-30,000 zone. So there is room to fall.

Goldbug and bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff allowed the collapse of bitcoin below $10,000. But Mike Novogratz, the founder of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank, stood up for the flagship currency immediately, offering Schiff a $1 million bet. The banker promised to send these funds to charity or another purpose of the opponent's choice if BTC trades below $35,000 in a year.

At the same time, Novogratz believes that the bear market will be long enough, and therefore does not advise buying on drawdowns now. “It will be difficult for cryptocurrencies to start a rally until the stock market bottoms out. Nevertheless, digital assets have already experienced a significant sell-off and are beginning to receive support from buyers,” he explained.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book "Rich Dad Poor Dad", also recommends waiting with purchases, saying that he will buy more digital gold only if its price drops to $20,000. "Profits are made when you buy, not when you sell. Bitcoin is crashing. Great news. I bought BTC for $6,000 and $9,000. I will buy more if the price tests $20,000. The time to get rich is approaching,” he wrote.

Recall that Kiyosaki predicted a “giant stock market crash” last October and warned that the same fate awaits gold, silver, and bitcoin. This is exactly what we are seeing now.

Ton Weiss, a well-known trader, analyst and former vice president of JP Morgan Chase, does not rule out the completion of the bitcoin correction in the near future. According to him, the cryptocurrency has reached the 20-month moving average (MA), which is at the level of $34,000. Weiss claims that this is a "perfect opportunity" for a trend reversal and the asset's return to growth. According to the specialist, in the event of a rebound, the price of bitcoin will quickly return to the $40,000 level and consolidate above it.

Another cryptocurrency analyst, Nicholas Merten predicts that despite the current market conditions, bitcoin could rise almost 7 times to $200,000 by the end of the year. Merten stated on his DataDash YouTube channel (502,000 subscribers) that if bitcoin's capitalization stays above $600 billion, it will set the stage for the coin's bull run in the coming months.

The expert recalled that all rallies occur after corrections and are often spurred on by BTC purchases at heavily discounted prices. Understanding how big players buy is the key to navigating the highly volatile cryptocurrency markets, Merten says.

According to other market participants, bitcoin can visit the $30,000 area, and then it is likely to turn around. Charles Edwards, the founder of the crypto investment company Capriole, wrote that the signal of the NVT (Network Value to Transaction ratio) indicator shows that BTC is oversold: this situation is rare in the market. “We have entered an open buying zone,” Edwards commented on the current situation.

Recall that this indicator was proposed and is actively used by the well-known analyst Willy Woo. NVT is calculated by dividing bitcoin's market capitalization by its transaction volume (in USD) and is a popular metric to assess whether the coin is overbought or oversold.

Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, named two reasons for the current correction in the cryptocurrency market. The first of these is the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. The second is the imperfection and immaturity of the crypto industry. At the same time, the businessman believes that the current market conditions provide “an excellent entry point for institutional investors interested in cryptocurrencies, who have been on the sidelines so far.”

According to Saylor, a lot of institutional investors are now watching bitcoin and see that it is 40% below the all-time high and that it is consolidating. At the same time, they understand that bitcoin is supported by such serious investors as Bill Miller, regulators, senators and congressmen, as well as large public companies.

As for MicroStrategy itself, this software developer owns 124,391 BTC. The company has spent about $3.7 billion on the acquisition of cryptocurrency. Thus, the average purchase price is $30,100 per 1 coin. And if it falls below this level, it will result in multi-million or even billions in losses for the owners of MicroStrategy.

And now, a couple of soothing statements to conclude the review. The first is from Scott Melker, a trader, analyst and podcast host, who reminded his subscribers that there is nothing unusual about what is happening in the market now. “People have short memories. Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 in 10 days in May. 10 DAYS!!! All this has already happened. And that was only 8 months ago. So why be so scared?" he wrote.

The second is from McDonald's fast-food chain, which offered owners of digital assets to get a job in the catering industry during the bearish trend. This is a joke of course. But, as they say, there is some truth in every joke. The McDonald's tweet was liked by the community and quickly gained almost 100,000 likes.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/ 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- According to Bloomberg, the residents of Russia possess a huge amount of digital assets worth about $214 billion. This estimate was obtained by analysing the IP addresses of users of the largest crypto exchanges. In addition, according to the University of Cambridge, Russia became the third country in the world in bitcoin mining (11.23%) in the summer of 2021, after the USA (35.4%) and Kazakhstan (18.1%), where many miners migrated after the ban in China.
The Central Bank of Russia took the initiative to impose a total ban on everything related to this area on January 20, including the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies, as well as organizing these operations in the country.
However, President Vladimir Putin, instead of a complete ban, supported the proposal of the Ministry of Finance, which provides not for a ban on cryptocurrencies, but for the regulation of their circulation. The President expressed the opinion that the Central Bank should not stand in the way of technological progress. Moreover, Russia has certain competitive advantages, especially in mining, which include a surplus of electricity and well-trained personnel.

- Bitcoin is perceived as a “monetary good” and no altcoin can challenge that status for the foreseeable future. Fidelity Digital Assets analysts came to these conclusions. Experts called the first cryptocurrency not only a technology, but also a perfect form of money in their study “Bitcoin First”. It is the most “secure, decentralized form of assets. Bitcoin has the scarcity and longevity of gold combined with the ease of use, storage and transportation of fiat,” they explained.

- The persistence of high volatility limits the adoption of bitcoin by institutions. This is how JPMorgan analysts justified the decline in the fair, in their opinion, valuation of the first cryptocurrency from $150,000 to $38,000. The specialists noted that the current 50% pullback from the all-time high has highlighted the nature of the boom-bust cycle, which is an obstacle to adding BTC to the portfolios of large investors.
The JPMorgan model assumed that the volatility of bitcoin would converge with the volatility of gold and the alignment of their shares in investment portfolios. And now, bank analysts have admitted that their previous forecast that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio would drop to around 2/1 by the end of 2022 was unrealistic. Therefore, they lowered the fair value of the first cryptocurrency to $38,000, writes Business Insider.
JPMorgan did not rule out a further decline in bitcoin quotes, even in the absence of signs of buyer surrender. “Open interest in futures and the volume of exchange balances indicates less panic or liquidation of positions than last May, especially in relation to large crypto investors,” the specialists concluded in their report.

- Arizona (USA) Senate Member Wendy Rogers introduced a bill that would approve bitcoin as a transactional currency or a means of payment. According to the bill, the first cryptocurrency will be accepted to pay debts, taxes and government fees as well as other obligations. Rogers has also been noted for other initiatives. One of them suggests the possibility of the authorities paying salaries to their employees in cryptocurrency. The senator has also proposed not to levy taxes or fees for “the use of blockchain technology.”
All of these bills must be approved by the Arizona House of Representatives and Senate to be adopted.

- Bitcoin could soar to a high of $93,717 this year and is expected to be worth $76,360 by the end of 2022 and close to $193,000 by the end of 2025. This is the average forecast made by industry representatives during a roundtable discussion organized by the analytical website Finder.
The discussion was attended by 33 fintech experts, half of whom do not expect the cryptocurrency price to fall even against the backdrop of the upcoming increase in US interest rates. Vanessa Harris, director of the cryptocurrency startup Permission, was among the most optimistic participants in the discussion. She predicts that BTC will peak at $220,000 this year. A much more modest figure was voiced by the founder of the CoinFlip bitcoin ATM network, Daniel Polotsky. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency is unlikely to exceed $60,000 in 2022 as the bubbles created by the US Federal Reserve during the pandemic are now deflating.

- Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino believes that despite a solid rebound from its 90-day low of $32,950, the first cryptocurrency is facing a strong resistance. When the price approaches $38,000, it stops because the resistance becomes too strong.
At the same time, according to Pizzino, bitcoin will still enter an accumulation period in the medium term, when whales and investors with smart money will begin to invest in cryptocurrency, waiting for its next bullish trend. This may take a whole year, during which the BTC rate will rise. According to Pizzino's forecast, bitcoin is able to reach a new price high in the second half of 2022, but this will not be a sharp upward movement but a series of ascents.

- American Express, one of the most recognizable credit card operators, has lost ground in processed transaction volumes to the bitcoin network. This is evidenced by the data of the latest NYDIG report.
While the BTC network processed transactions for $3.0 trillion in 2021, for American Express the figure was $1.28 trillion, and this is the best figure in the history of the American corporation. Discover, the 4th largest card operator, posted a result of $0.504 billion, which is also an absolute maximum for the company.
Only two famous brands are ahead of bitcoin: Mastercard and VISA. Their result is $7.72 trillion and $13.5 trillion, respectively. However, the gap between them and the bitcoin is steadily shrinking.

- Global adoption of bitcoin will certainly contribute to the growth of bitcoin to $1 million. This opinion was expressed by the head of Circle, Jeremy Aller in an interview with Business Insider. He admits that he himself is not a "bitcoin maximalist", but he still believes in new cryptocurrency highs. At the same time, the businessman prefers not to compare bitcoin with gold, believing that the digital asset is much more efficient than precious metals. According to the head of Circle, gold as money is simply useless in modern society.

- But analysts at Goldman Sachs, one of the world's largest investment banks, do not share Aller's scenario. In their opinion, the mass adoption of cryptocurrency may, on the contrary, worsen the chances of its long-term growth. Experts argue that the global popularity of digital assets will increase their correlation with traditional ones. This, in turn, will reduce the volatility of cryptocurrencies, as well as reduce their advantage as a diversifying asset in an investor's portfolio.
Moreover, according to Goldman Sachs, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to be able to avoid the influence of macroeconomic forces, such as the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.

- Peter Brandt, a well-known Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, notes that most crypto enthusiasts are now in an extremely bearish mood. Most of the participants in the Laser Eyes flash mob are confident that the price of bitcoin will fall below $30,000 in the near future. According to the expert, this may be a signal to buy the first cryptocurrency. “When the bulls wear laser eyes, it’s time to sell. When bulls become bears, is it time to buy?” Brandt asks.
Recall that the “Laser Eyes” flash mob started on Twitter in February 2021, when bitcoin reached a local high of $58,300. After that, many supporters of the first cryptocurrency, in anticipation of its growth to $100,000, posted photos with “laser eyes” as their profile avatar. Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, TV presenter Max Kaiser, CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other influencers were among the participants in the flash mob.
However, instead of rising to $100,000, the flagship cryptocurrency collapsed to $29,000 by June. So, the current remark of Peter Brand is clearly not devoid of logic.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market 

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

January 2022 Results: Leaders Ignore Trading on EUR/USD

NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the first month of 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The maximum profit in January was received by a client from Vietnam, account No.1467xxx, whose profit amounted to 49.180 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to transactions with gold (XAU/USD).

The second place in the ranking of the most successful traders of the month was taken by a client from China, account No. 1589XXX, who earned 39.151 USD on transactions primarily with the British pound (GBP/AUD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY), as well as with such pairs as EUR /NZD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY.

The third place on the January podium went to another representative of Vietnam (account No. 1605XXX), whose result 36.880 USD was also achieved through operations with gold (XAU/USD).

The NordFX passive investment services:

- CopyTrading still has an active supplier under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 138% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. Their second signal, KennyFXPRO Prismo 2K, started two months later, while its profitability has been 55% with a drawdown of 37%. All trades in both cases were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs.

We can also note the Hada signal this time, which has shown a profit of 53% in just 70 days of life with a drawdown of 21%.

The lifetime of the above-named signals is short, less than a year. In combination with a fairly serious maximum drawdown, this allows them to be classified as a group with a high degree of risk. But, of course, there are long-livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, signal MF989923. It has existed for almost 7 years, and it has shown an increase of 517% during this time. Note that this signal had serious drawdowns several times as well, reaching 66%. True, the last time this happened a long time ago, almost two years ago: in March 2020. But trading has since become much less aggressive and less profitable.

- As for the PAMM service, we have to mention the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO again. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 67% in exactly 1 year with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 16%.

Among PAMM accounts, the TranquilityFX - The Genesis v3 account attracts attention as well. It exists for 303 days and has brought a profit of 47% during this time with a drawdown of 16%. NKFX - Ninja 136 is similar to the two previous accounts as well. Its lifespan is just over 200 days, growth is 36%, maximum drawdown is less than 15%.

It should be noted that in most cases, both traders and signal providers and PAMM managers ignored such a popular pair as EUR/USD in their work, making transactions either with gold (XAU/USD), or with pairs GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY, NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, 7.716 USD, was accrued in January to a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx;
- next is a partner from India, account No.1593xxx, who received 5.256 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from Vietnam, account No. 1371ХХХ, who received 3.913 USD as a reward, closes the top three.

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 07 - 11, 2022

EUR/USD: Another Surprise, from the ECB This Time

It's hard to resist when you're attacked from both sides. The dollar received two powerful blows last week: one from the Bank of England, the second from the ECB, and could not resist them. The USD DXY index flew down. While it was at the level of 97.36 on January 28, it dropped to 95.14 on February 04. This is not a knockout of course, but a knockdown from which it will be difficult for the US currency to recover quickly.

So, the Bank of England raised the interest rate by another 25 basis points (bp) to 0.50%, which was expected. But what shocked the markets was a shift in the direction of the ECB's monetary policy. The market was waiting for the regulator to start discussing such changes towards the end of the year. But it turned out that this could happen much earlier. Maybe already in the spring.

The data on unemployment in the Eurozone exceeded all wildest expectations: its level fell to 7.0%. But this is not all either. The growth of consumer prices in January accelerated from 5% to 5.1% and renewed its historical high. This is despite the fact that many expected the opposite. For example, Bloomberg experts predicted a slowdown in inflation to 4.4%.

It is known that unemployment and inflation are the main factors that determine the monetary policy of regulators in the current environment. And if the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, stated until recently that her bank would not copy the actions of the Fed, she was forced to admit at a press conference on Thursday, February 03 that "the situation has really changed."

“Inflation is likely to remain high longer than initially expected,” said Ms Lagarde. “Compared to our December estimates, current inflation risks are biased upwards. especially in the short term”.

The head of the ECB did not repeat the mantra about the “extremely low probability” of a rate hike in 2022. And, although the key rate remained unchanged at 0% at the last meeting, it became known from informed sources that the bank's officials are already discussing the possibility of raising it at the end of this year. According to some experts, it could rise by as much as 40 or even 50 bp.

So, apparently, the European regulator is abandoning the policy of patience and, together with the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, joins the "hawk" race to tighten monetary policy. It is appropriate to draw an analogy between Christine Lagarde's current statement and what her American colleague Jerome Powell said in June 2021. The head of the Fed said something similar then, after which the dollar began to sharply gain strength and won 1135 points  back from the euro, lowering the EUR/USD pair from 1.2255 to 1.1120. Now it seems that it is time for the euro to recoup its losses.

In addition to the frontal blows from the Bank of England and the ECB, the US currency also received backstabs from the “native” Fed. At least six representatives of the US Central bank made comments last week, and none of them mentioned that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) could immediately raise rates by 50 bp at its meeting in March (although the market was waiting for this).

The result of all the events of the week, so painful for the dollar, was an impressive strengthening of the European currency. The EUR/USD pair has shown an active growth, which has not been seen since the beginning of the pandemic: it rose by 343 points in a week, from 1.1140 to 1.1483.

True, the dollar was slightly supported by statistics from the US at the very end of the working week, on Friday, February 04. Such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside agriculture (non-farm payrolls) was fixed at 467K, while the market expected it to fall to 150K. As a result, the dollar strengthened slightly, and the pair set the last chord at 1.1453.

Most of the indicators on D1 turned up by the end of the five-day period. Among the trend ones, there were 85% of them (15% are still colored red), among the oscillators - 80%, the remaining 20% took a neutral position. Among the experts, opinions are divided almost evenly, although the bulls have still got a slight advantage: 45% are in favor of continuing the uptrend, 35% are for moving down and 20% are for the sideways trend.

The nearest resistance is the highs of January 13 and February 04 in the zone of 1.1480, followed by 1.1525, 1.1560 and 1.1625. Supports are in zones and at levels 1.1365-1.1385, 1.1275, 1.1220, 1.1185 and Jan 28 low 1.1120.

As for the events of the upcoming week, the most important of them are related to inflation and will concern the consumer market. So, the values of the US Consumer Price Index (excluding food products and energy carriers) will become known on Thursday, February 10, and the values of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index of Germany and the Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan USA will be published on Friday, February 11. 

GBP/USD: The Bank of England: Not a Dove Yet, No Longer a Hawk

Of course, the general weakening of the dollar affected the GBP/USD pair as well, which recorded the weekly high at 1.3627. However, as mentioned above, the increase in the interest rate by the Bank of England did not come as a surprise to anyone and had already taken into account by the market in quotations. In contrast to the statement of the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, which produced the effect of a bombshell. As a result, the European currency gained a significant advantage over the British one, and the EUR/GBP pair rose by more than 2.2%, from 0.82843 to 0.84650. As for GBP/USD, it finished well below the local high, at 1.3528 for the same reason.

The bulls on the pound were also disappointed by disagreements among members of the Bank of England committee. Only 4 out of 9 voted to raise the rate by 50 bps. The majority, including the head of the bank, Andrew Bailey, decided to raise rates by only 25 basis points, citing a slowdown in economic growth.

This regulator will apparently continue to act in an extremely balanced manner, which was confirmed by the chief economist of the Bank of England, Hugh Pill. He said in an interview with Reuters that the bank expects "further moderate tightening in the coming months if everything goes as planned" and that "you need to be careful in setting the rate level."

Strategists at Japan's MUFG Bank say this sneaky stance limits the prospects for a stronger British currency. MUFG does not expect a steady growth of the pound and believes that if the movement of GBP/USD to 1.4000 continues, the pair will encounter many pits and bumps along the way. And their colleagues from Scotiabank look in the opposite direction at all. In their opinion, due to the inability to gain a foothold above 1.3600, the British currency is now at risk of falling to 1.3400 initially and possibly to 1.3200 in a relatively short term.

The majority of experts (55%) are still set for further growth of the GBP/USD pair at the moment, the remaining 45% have taken the opposite position. The indicators on D1 look like this: 45% of oscillators point north, 10% point south, the remaining 45% remain neutral. Among trend indicators, 40% look up, 60% look down. Supports are located at 1.3500, 1.3425, 1.3365, next strong support is 100 pips lower. Levels and resistance zones: 1.3570-1.3600, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900.

Highlights of the coming week include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday, February 10, and the release of UK GDP and industrial production data on Friday, February 11.

USD/JPY: Calm, and Calm Again

While most G10 Central banks are either raising rates or becoming more aggressive (like the ECB), the BOJ's slogan is still "calm and calm again". Safe haven should remain as quiet as possible with its perpetually negative (minus 0.1%) interest rate.

It is already clear that, since inflation in Japan does not show signs of approaching the target level of 2% set by the Japanese regulator, its actions will lag behind the actions of other Central banks. And this, according to analysts at CIBC Capital Markets, will continue to put pressure on the yen.

At some point, rumors began circulating in the market that the Bank of Japan could move to normalize its monetary policy this year. However, the Bank's statement released after the January meeting made it clear that this is nothing more than speculation. Since central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda keeps saying that it is far from reaching the inflation target of 2.0%, his organization is quite comfortable with the weak yen.

What has been happening to the USD/JPY pair over the past four months can be considered a sideways trend with a predominance of bullish sentiment. So the general weakening of the dollar practically did not help the Japanese currency last week: having fallen on February 02 to the level of 114.14, the pair returned to the same place where it started, to the zone of 115.20, by the end of the week.

At the time of writing, the majority of experts (55%) expect the USD/JPY pair to continue moving towards a multi-year high of 116.35, recorded on January 04. The remaining 45% believe that the weakened dollar will still put downward pressure on it. All 100% of the indicators are green, although 15% of the oscillators give signals of the pair being overbought.

Support levels and zones are 115.00, 114.55-114.80, 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 115.50-115.70, the nearest serious target of the bulls is a new five-year high at 116.35.

No serious macroeconomic statistics from Japan are  expected either last or next week. We only note that Friday, February 11 is a day off in Japan. The country celebrates Kenko Kinen No Hi, the National Foundation Day. It is believed that the first emperor of Japan, Jimmu, ascended the throne on this day in 660 BC and founded the Imperial Dynasty of Japan and the State of Japan.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Who Is in Charge in the BTC/USD Pair? Answer: US Federal Reserve

Whatever crypto enthusiasts say, bitcoin has long ceased to be an independent asset. And  the decisive factor intheBTC/USD pair is the dollar. And the strength or weakness of the US currency depends, in turn, on the policy of the US Federal Reserve (and partly on the actions of other Central banks).

The same crypto enthusiasts crave an inflow of funds from institutional investors like manna from heaven. And the latter are waiting for the regulators to establish clear rules governing the work with digital assets. Therefore, the movement of quotes of leading cryptocurrencies will depend (and already depends) not on the mood of millions of small players, but on the mood of just a few governments and Central banks. Just look at the correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. This link is becoming more and more rigid and is determined by the risk sentiment of large investors.

Of course, short-term fluctuations in BTC/USD can be affected by events such as bad weather that has suspended miners in Texas. But the main trends are set not by them, but by the actions of regulators.

Bitcoin is now perceived as a "money commodity". Analysts of Fidelity Digital Assets came to this conclusion, calling the first cryptocurrency not only a technology, but also a perfect form of money. And what kind of government will allow the flow of "perfect" money to pass it by? And there may be two solutions: either to ban them completely, as in China, or to take them under strict control.

The Central Bank of Russia wanted to follow the Chinese version. But Russia's President Vladimir Putin supported the proposal of the Ministry of Finance not to ban, but to regulate the cryptocurrency market, including their circulation and mining. This is a very serious decision, because, according to Bloomberg, residents of Russia possess a huge number of digital assets worth about $214 billion. In addition, according to the University of Cambridge, Russia became the third country in the world in bitcoin mining (11.23%) in the summer of 2021, after the USA (35.4%) and Kazakhstan (18.1%), where many miners migrated after the ban in China.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor also believes that the current problems in the cryptocurrency market are caused, first of all, by the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. According to Saylor, many institutional investors are now tracking bitcoin, however, they are in no hurry to invest in it.

According to JPMorgan analysts, the persistence of high volatility, which limits the adoption of bitcoin by institutions, is also an obstacle.

Interestingly, analysts at another major investment bank, Goldman Sachs, agree that cryptocurrencies are unlikely to escape the influence of macroeconomic forces, such as the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. However, they believe that the mass adoption of cryptocurrency may not improve, but, on the contrary, worsen the chances for its long-term growth. Experts argue that the global popularity of digital assets will further increase their correlation with the traditional ones. This, in turn, will reduce the volatility of cryptocurrencies and reduce both their speculative attractiveness and their advantages as a diversifying asset in investor portfolios.

As for the current situation, despite a solid bounce off its 90-day low of $32,950, the main cryptocurrency has been unable to overcome the strong resistance in the $38,000-39,000 zone for a long time. However, the BTC/USD pair went on a breakthrough and reached $40,880 at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, February 04.

The total market capitalization for the week has grown slightly: $1.85 trillion compared to $1.70 trillion seven days ago, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has deepened even more into the zone of Extreme Fear, falling from 24 to 20 points.

The latest JPMorgan report notes that “open interest in futures and the volume of exchange balances indicate less panic or liquidation of positions than in last May, especially in relation to large crypto investors”. At the same time, the bank’s specialists do not exclude a further decrease in bitcoin quotes, even in the absence of signs of capitulation of buyers. They seriously lowered the fair value of the first cryptocurrency from $150,000 to $38,000.

According to Business Insider, JPMorgan's model assumed that bitcoin's volatility would converge with gold's volatility and equalize their shares in investment portfolios. Now, the bank’s analysts have acknowledged that their previous forecast that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio would drop to around 2/1 by the end of 2022 proved to be unrealistic, leading to the downgrade.

Peter Brandt, a well-known Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, notes that most crypto enthusiasts are now in an extremely bearish mood. Most of the participants in the Laser Eyes flash mob are confident that the price of bitcoin will fall below $30,000 in the near future. According to the expert, this may be a signal to buy the first cryptocurrency. “When the bulls wear laser eyes, it’s time to sell. When bulls turn bears, is it time to buy?” Brandt asks.

Recall that the “Laser Eyes” flash mob started on Twitter in February 2021, when bitcoin reached a local high of $58,300. After that, many supporters of the first cryptocurrency, in anticipation of its growth to $100,000, posted photos with “laser eyes” as their profile avatar. Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, TV presenter Max Kaiser, CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other influencers were among the participants in the flash mob.

However, instead of rising to $100,000, the flagship cryptocurrency collapsed to $29,000 by June. So, Peter Brand's current remark about "laser eyes" in bears clearly deserves attention.

It is also worth paying close attention to the results of the round table organized by the Finder analytical website. The discussion was attended by 33 fintech experts, half of whom do not expect the cryptocurrency price to fall even against the backdrop of the upcoming increase in US interest rates. The average forecast given by the participants of the table says that bitcoin could soar to a high of $93,717 this year and is expected to be worth $76,360 by the end of 2022 and close to $193,000 by the end of 2025.

Vanessa Harris, director of the cryptocurrency startup Permission, was among the most optimistic participants in the discussion. She predicts that BTC will peak at $220,000 this year. A much more modest figure was voiced by the founder of the CoinFlip bitcoin ATM network, Daniel Polotsky. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency is unlikely to exceed $60,000 in 2022 as the bubbles created by the US Federal Reserve during the pandemic are now deflating.

Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino predicts BTC growth as well. According to his forecast, bitcoin will still enter an accumulation period in the medium term, when whales and investors with smart money will begin to invest in cryptocurrency, waiting for its next bullish trend. This may take a whole year, during which the BTC rate will rise. According to Pizzino's forecast, bitcoin is able to reach a new price high in the second half of 2022, but this will not be a sharp upward movement but a series of ascents.

Finally, the most cosmic forecast was given by Circle CEO Jeremy Aller in an interview with Business Insider. In his opinion, the worldwide adoption of bitcoin will certainly contribute to the growth of this coin to $1 million. The businessman admitted that he is not a "bitcoin maximalist", but he still believes in new cryptocurrency highs. At the same time, he prefers not to compare bitcoin with gold, believing that the digital asset is much more efficient than precious metals. According to the head of Circle, gold as money is simply useless in modern society.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/ 

[TheWincert]

Cryptocurrencies. It is clear that we, similar to most analysts, cannot predict the stuffing of the next fake news. However, there circulate sustained rumors that the Wall Street is preparing a second wave of invasion to the crypto market. One of the largest holding companies Fidelity Investments, Goldman Sachs, as well as other investment banks can become a “shock force”. However, these are all hopes of the blockchain apologists.
At the moment, the market is in a state of consolidation, and therefore we can only repeat the previous forecast with minor adjustments: the movement of the pair BTC/USD in the range $6,325-$6,900. At the same time, major players may still attempt to bring down the rate to the level of mining profitability in the region of $6,100, where they are beginning to actively buy coins.
A provocation similar to the one that happened on October 15, is unlikely in the near future.

[vandarkholm]

lol intrstng

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Affiliate Program and Social Trading Network Recognized as the Best in 2021

The Expert Council of the Forex-Awards.com named the Affiliate Program of the brokerage company NordFX and its Social Trading Network as the best at the end of 2021.

The Forex-Awards.com Expert Council is a unique team of professionals headquartered in Hong Kong. Based on the opinions of both independent experts and the trading community, the Expert Council honors the most remarkable solutions and innovations in almost 30 nominations and rewards market participants featuring breakthrough initiatives and excellent results in the Forex industry. A convincing victory was won by the brokerage company NordFX in two of them in 2021.

The victory in the Best Affiliate Program nomination was won thanks to NordFX's multi-level Flexible Partnership Program, which offers its IB partners payments up to 70% of the spread and most advanced CPA up to $700. Monthly monitoring showed that the total earnings of TOP-3 IB partners amounted to $351.853 in 2021. That is, the average earnings of each of them was $9.773 per month.

In total, over $30,000,000 has been paid to all IB partners of the brokerage company during the program's operation. At the same time, it must be taken into account that ΙΒ earnings are withdrawn instantly and without any restrictions.

NordFX Social Trading Network offers unique advantages to both novice traders and passive investors. Using Copy Trading and PAMM services, they get the opportunity to make a profit even with no independent trading experience and without any serious time spent. Experienced traders get additional earning opportunities by offering their services as signal providers and account managers.

In addition, the victory in the Best Social Trading Network nomination was facilitated by the wide information and educational work carried out by NordFX in various languages in all major social networks and hundreds of specialized Internet resources, forums and blogs.

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/