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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. Many DeFi application developers are already using the Ethereum blockchain more than the main net.
Experts note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. Investors in the main cryptocurrency are not very worried about minor jumps, however, with a long negative trend, they start to withdraw assets quickly. During the recent correction, it was Bitcoin that lost most of its capitalization.
“Bitcoin, on the other hand, is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is Most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity, and ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,” JPMorgan analysts note.

- Founded in 1744, Sotheby's will auction the work of street art genius Banksy, Love is in the Air. They plan to accept bets in US dollars, bitcoins and ethereums. The work has been initially estimated at $3-5 million. The auction will take place on May 12 and will be the first experience for Sotheby's in selling works of art for cryptocurrency.
 
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, a division of US financial data provider S&P Global, has launched indices based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and a basket of these cryptocurrencies. The S&P Bitcoin Index received the ticker SPBTC, the S&P Ethereum Index - SPETH, which tracks the dynamics of these two assets, the S&P Crypto Mega Cap Index - SPCMC.
Indices are calculated in points, not in US dollars. According to a S&P spokesman, instead of the actual cost, they reflect price changes, and should compete with counterparts from Bloomberg and Galaxy. 
The data is calculated on weekdays and will be available by subscription for service customers. Rebalancing is carried out on a quarterly basis.

- Back in May 2019, crypto enthusiasts noticed an advertisement for the American online trading giant eBay with the words “Virtual Currency. It's happening on eBay. " Later, representatives of the site denied rumors about adding support for cryptocurrencies. And now, two years later, on CNBC, the head of the company, Jamie Iannone, said that eBay is still considering the possibility of accepting payments in digital assets.

- Renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. “I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,” he said.
“Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.”
“But besides, we will have long sideways,” added the specialist.

- Ethereum continues to rise in price amid the growing popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications designed to replace banks and insurance companies. The price of the leading altcoin surpassed $3,000 on May 3, for the first time in history. As a result, the fortune of Ethereum creator Vitaly Buterin, who owns 333,520 coins, reached $1.09 billion.
Thus, 27-year-old Buterin has become the youngest billionaire in the world who made his fortune on cryptocurrency. His fortune has grown almost 25 times since the beginning of 2020, according to Forbes.

- A startup employee told a story about how the employer demanded that the salary paid in cryptocurrency be returned after its rate increased by 700%.
According to him, the CEO of the company offered him a settlement in cryptocurrency at the signing of the contract in the spring of 2020. The contract contained a clause that the employer could have him being paid in dollars, but the employee refused to do so.
And just recently, he received a message from his employer demanding the return of all the cryptocurrency. “In return, you can bill the company for hours worked in dollars,” the letter read.
The MarketWatch portal, on which the story was published, advised him not to return the cryptocurrency, since the employer would hardly want to pay extra if the rate collapsed.
Although the author does not specify the name of the cryptocurrency, Ethereum fits the description, the rate of which has grown by 790% since August 1.

- Bitcoin is less volatile than stocks of companies such as Apple and Tesla, said the head of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao in an interview with Bloomberg TV. According to Zhao, significant price fluctuations are observed not only in the cryptocurrency, but also in the stock market. At the same time, Bitcoin is less volatile than shares of companies with comparable market capitalization. 
According to him, “profit hunters” are often to blame for this. They do not analyze the market but invest money in assets against the backdrop of positive news. “There are always more people driven by herd instinct than those who really do serious research. When negative news appears, they leave the market, when positive news appears, they try to enter again. This causes a lot of volatility,” explained the CEO of Binance.
Earlier, Zhao advised traders who are stressed by every price drop to change their strategy to buy and hold. In his opinion, this is not the best recommendation for professionals, but good advice for beginners.

- Bitcoin is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization, said fellow Warren Buffett, 97-year-old billionaire Charles Munger. “Of course, I hate Bitcoin's success. I do not welcome currency, which is created out of thin air and is so useful for kidnappers and extortionists,” Munger emphasized.
At the same time, another critic of cryptocurrency, billionaire Warren Buffett, this time declined to comment on Bitcoin. The legendary investor emphasized that digital money is now supported by "hundreds of thousands against two people." “We have a choice: to make 400 thousand people angry and upset, or to make two happy,” he noted ironically.

- American financial services giant Mastercard has presented the results of its research conducted in 18 countries in various regions of the world. According to its data, 40% of consumers plan to use crypto assets for their payments next year. Among millennials, the figure is even higher, reaching 67%.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Summed Up April Results: TOP 3 Most Successful Traders and IB-Partners

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in April 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The maximum profit in April was received by a client from Malaysia, account No. 1208XXX, whose profit amounted to 20,590 USD. Whereas in previous months, when trading cryptocurrencies, NordFX traders profited mainly from bitcoin transactions, now Bitcoin SV, a coin that appeared as a result of the Bitcoin Cash hardfork, has entered the business. In addition to the BSV/USD pair, transactions with the altcoin Dash (DSH/USD) also helped the Malaysian trader to become the leader. This reflects the trends of recent weeks, when transactions with some altcoins have become more profitable than transactions with the main cryptocurrency.

The second place on the podium is taken by a trader from Thailand, account No. 2009XXX, with a result of18,788 USD, obtained for CAD/JPY and EUR/GBP.

Trader from China, No.1286XXX, who is the third place by the month's results, also traded the Canadian dollar and the British pound. Their profit of 16,523 USD was obtained mainly for USD/CAD and GBP/USD pairs.

CopyTrading is the leader in passive investing services, with the NVI Venture Capital signal, which showed a yield of 193% in just one last week of April with the maximum drawdown of 41.5%. This result is, of course, impressive. However, this is a rather aggressive trading style, so subscribers should not forget about risk management.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, USD 11.714, was accrued to a partner from Sri Lanka, account No.1483xxx;
- next is a partner from Vietnam, account No.1401xxx, who received $6,339;
- and, finally, a partner from India, account No.1527xxx, who received $5.762 as a reward, closes the top three.

And summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. In April, the $100,000 superlottery started, in which 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 each and a super prize of $20,000 will be drawn among NordFX clients.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 10 - 14, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. There has been a lot of talk for a long time about how quickly and how well the US economy is recovering. But the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, warned a week ago that everything is still quite fragile, and the acceleration of inflation is a temporary factor. Apparently, he already knew it then, and now everyone else knows it too: not everything is as rosy as it seemed.
The bulk of US macroeconomic indicators released last week are colored red. The ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector is 60.7 instead of 65.0 as was forecasted. The ADP report on the employment rate in the private sector is 742K instead of the forecasted 800K. The ISM business activity index in the services sector is 62.7 instead of 64.3. And it is a complete disaster with such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP): 770K was created in March, 978K was expected in April, but only 266K were actually created, that is, 3.7 times less than the forecast.
Of course, investors had plenty of time to cash in on the recovery of the U.S. economy. And now it seems that the time has come to switch to other regions and, first of all, to the European Union. Moreover, vaccination against coronavirus in Europe is becoming more widespread, EU member states are gradually lifting quarantine restrictions, and the economy is gaining momentum. Unlike the US, retail sales in the Eurozone showed convincing growth, rising from minus 1.5% in March to plus 12.0% in April. And this is against the forecast of 9.6%.
The above has put strong pressure on the dollar and contributed to the strengthening of the European currency. As a result, the forecast given by the majority of experts (60%) came true 100%: the EUR/USD pair went up again and renewed the six-week high on the evening of Friday, May 07, reaching the height of 1.2170. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 1.2165;  

- GBP/USD. The forecast has turned out to be absolutely correct in this case as well. This pair has been moving in a side channel 1.3670-1.4000 for 10 weeks. And the majority of experts had voted for the fact that, having rebounced off the central zone of this corridor, the pair would go up and reach its upper border. This is what actually happened. Having started on Monday at 1.3810, the pair reached the height of 1.4000 on Friday, not far from where, at 1.3990, it finished the working week;

- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, 70% of analysts had pointed to the south. In their opinion, the pair should have dropped below the horizon of 109.00, and the level of 108.40 was called as a support. And that is what happened. True, the bulls made an attempt to repeat the success of a week ago on Monday, but their strength dried up quickly. The pair turned down, reached the local bottom at 108.35 on Friday 07 May, and then put the last chord at 108.60; 

- cryptocurrencies. "Bitcoin is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization", said Warren Buffett's fellow, 97-year-old billionaire Charles Munger. “Of course, I hate bitcoin's success. I do not welcome currency, which is created out of thin air and is so useful for kidnappers and extortionists,” Munger emphasized.
The 97-year-old investor is now likely be attributed not only to the “sharks” of Wall Street, but also to the “dinosaurs.” Virtual assets go beyond their perception of the world: after all, they are accustomed to dealing with currencies and securities, which have a very real, and not fictitious, basis. Nevertheless, the clink of digital gold is already heard in almost every financial centre on the planet. Financial data provider S&P Dow Jones Indices has even launched indices based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and on the basket with these cryptocurrencies. The S&P Bitcoin Index received the ticker SPBTC, the S&P Ethereum Index - SPETH, and the S&P Crypto Mega Cap Index which tracks the dynamics of these two assets, - SPCMC.
The adoption of cryptocurrencies is growing not only among large institutional investors, but also among the general population. The American financial services giant Mastercard has presented the results of its research conducted in 18 countries in various regions of the world. According to its data, 40% of consumers plan to use crypto assets for their payments next year. Among millennials, the figure is even higher, reaching 67%.
It would seem that all of the above should only benefit digital currencies. But it is not so. Bitcoin is beginning to increasingly correlate with traditional markets. And after bitcoin, altcoins also fall into this bundle. Thus, the crypto market, as well as the stock market, is now heavily dependent on the policies pursued by the White House and the U.S. Federal Reserve. And if fiscal stimulus programs (QE) are cut, the money stream fueling the cryptocurrency market could dry up quickly enough.
Until this happens, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is showing smooth growth. It grew from $2.110 trillion to $2.375 trillion, that is, by 12.56%, over the past week. At the same time, the capitalization of the altcoin market showed an increase of more than 20%. Bitcoin continues to lose ground. Its Dominance Index was 72.65% on January 2; it reached the level lowest since July 2018, 47.87%, on April 30, but now, over the past seven days, it fell even lower, to 44.24%.
These numbers indicate that the interests of many investors are now focused not on the main cryptocurrency, but on altcoins, which bring significantly higher returns.
The BTC/USD pair made unsuccessful attempts to test $60,000 again over the past week. However, each dash to the north is followed by a rollback to the south. The pair even fell to the level of $52,950 on May 05. But Ethereum, is rewriting one historical maximum after another in the wake of the growing popularity of the DeFi sector, as well as on the eve of the transition to ETH 2.0. Thus, this coin has shown an increase of more than 80% over the past three weeks. And it made its creator, 27-year-old Vitaly Buterin, the youngest billionaire in the world who made his fortune on cryptocurrency. As noted by Forbes, Buterin's fortune has grown by almost 25 times early 2020.
Litecoin keeps pace with Ethereum. We pointed out significant upside potential for this coin back at the beginning of the year. The argument was that, unlike bitcoin, which had already renewed its all-time high, Litecoin was still very far from the $371 high it reached in December 2017. And finally, the LTC/USD pair was again at this top this week, on May 07, showing an increase of 75% just in the last 10 days.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. So, the market is again dominated by buyers of shares and sellers of the dollar. As we already mentioned, the weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. S&P500 and Dow Jones indices broke their own records again. The former reached the level of 4,238, the latter - 34,732 points. The euro grew together with them, reaching the height of 1.2170.
However, too fast growth of stock indices and a weakening dollar may induce the US Federal Reserve officials to curtail fiscal stimulus programs quicker. Thus, according to Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, imbalances in financial markets can lead to the fact that it would be better to raise the issues of folding QE sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the U.S. financial system could be under stress.  
As for the opinion of experts for the near future, 60% of them, together with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the correction of the EUR/USD pair to a strong support in the area of 1.2000, and in the event of its breakout, a fall another 100 points lower. The nearest support is 1.2055.
The remaining 40% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair's uptrend will continue. The nearest target is the February high at 1.2245, the next target is to reach the January 06 high at 1.2350.
The technical analysis readings are as follows: 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green at the time of writing this review (Friday night May 07). The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Among the events of the coming week (and there are not so many of them), the publication of data on the US consumer market on Wednesday May 12 and Friday May 14 should be noted.  Data on the consumer market in Germany is also due out on May 12;

- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair for the coming week is exactly the opposite of the previous one. If the majority of experts voted for the rise of the pair from the central part of the 1.3670-1.4000 channel to its upper border a week ago, now 70% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, predict it will return back to its center at 1.3800. The decision of the Bank of England, which kept interest rates and the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme unchanged at its May 06 meeting, should contribute to this. 
True, the regulator has reduced the rate of asset buybacks and is optimistic about the rate of economic recovery. But demand for the pound is being held back by the decision to hold interest rates until there are clear signs of a recovery in output and an inflation rate of 2%. The only one who voted to cut QE volumes was the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane. But his vote doesn't mean much as he retires in a month.
Only 30% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will be able to break out of the 10-week trading range and rise above the level of 1.4000. In this case, it will rush to the February 24 high of 1.4240, and the resistance levels on its way will be the levels of 1.4085 and 1.4180.
As for technical analysis, its readings are very similar to those for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, I recall the movie "The King's Speech", dedicated to the British monarch George VI. It is just that it will the speech ofthe head of the Bank of England, and it will be a whole series, since Andrew Bailey will give speeches on May 11, 12, and 13. However, investors are unlikely to hear anything from him that could seriously affect their mood. Of greater interest are the UK GDP and consumer market data, which will be published on Wednesday May 12;

- USD/JPY. The indicator readings on both time frames look quite chaotic. Only the trend indicators on H4 clearly point to the south: 85% is colored red here. Graphical analysis depicts a gradual decrease in volatility and consolidation of the pair in the zone 108.35-108.50. But 70% of analysts side with the bears for the third week in a row. Supports are at levels 108.40 and 107.85, the target is 107.45. ¬ 
The remaining 30% side with the bulls, they expect that the pair will try again to rise above the resistance of 109.00 and gain a foothold in the zone 109.00-109.65;

- cryptocurrencies.  As mentioned in the first part of the review, many investors have shifted their attention from the main cryptocurrency to the altcoin market. The BTC/USD pair has not yet managed to break above the 50-day moving average and rise above $60,000. But is this a harbinger of a new crypto winter?  
If BTC collapses following the domino effect, other coins may follow. But so far, hopes for the growth of the main cryptocurrency are quite real. Despite the fact that the index of its dominance has decreased from 72.65% to 44.24% since the beginning of the year, its trading volumes are quite high: about $70 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, although has reached the level of "greed", 64 points, but is still far from being overbought.
In the medium term, the fact that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postpones decisions on Bitcoin-ETFs may play against the main cryptocurrency. But many experts are still optimistic. Thus, renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. “I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,” he said.
“Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.” “But besides, we will have long sideways,” added the specialist cautiously.
Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become even more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. They note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. With a long negative trend, BTC investors begin to withdraw assets quickly.
According to JPMorgan analysts, “Bitcoin is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity. ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market as well. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,” they note.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- SpaceX Corporation has entered into a partnership with Dogecoin developers. The launch of the new satellite will be fully paid in this cryptocurrency. The satellite itself in the form of a cube will be delivered to the Moon as part of the Falcon 9 mission in early 2022.
SpaceX Vice President Tom Ochinero said the collaboration "will demonstrate the use of cryptocurrency outside of Earth orbit and lay the foundation for interplanetary commerce." The information was also confirmed by Elon Musk, who has recently received the nickname "dogefather" for his love for this meme cryptocurrency.

- Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko believes that bitcoin could reach the value of $250,000 within five years. According to the expert, the rapid adoption of the main cryptocurrency will resemble the popularization of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Also, the growth in the value of bitcoin may be affected by the situation in the fiat market, which is now going through hard times.
“At one time, many large companies increased their capitalization to a trillion dollars in 10-20 years. The main cryptocurrency managed to do this much faster. Bitcoin is likely to become the main competitor to gold within a few years, although it is already, says Yusko. - I do not think that cryptocurrencies will start to sink sharply in the near future. The market has many investors already who will not leave it until the last minute. "
“However, not all assets are useful and promising,” the financier continued. - Dogecoin, for example, is a joke and a marketing thing for me. It is naturl that it is rapidly becoming more expensive after references from Elon Musk. I think this can happen with any coin, even if it has no real value."

- Scammers took advantage of the hype surrounding Elon Musk's performance on Saturday Night Live (SNL) to lure over $100,000 in cryptocurrency from users. According to the MalwareHunterTeam project team, the scammers have created more than 30 fake Tesla, SpaceX and SNL accounts. Some of them received a verification mark. To receive a "reward", the attackers asked users to send a small amount of bitcoins, Ethereum, or Dogecoin to their wallets. MalwareHunterTeam noted that this type of scam has been around for a long time, but Twitter still hasn't solved the problem.

- As for Elon Musk himself, he urged to invest in digital assets with caution. “Digital assets continue to be promising. But it is possible that the market will return to bearish sentiments at any moment. At one time, I thought that investing in cryptocurrencies was a dubious business, but everything has changed over the years,” Musk said. At the same time, the billionaire noted that Tesla bought bitcoins at the beginning of the year for the so-called "free funds", which do not affect the company's activities in any way.

- According to the BBC, the US authorities have arrested a resident of Tennessee, suspected of organizing the contract murder of his wife. According to British media reports, a customer unknown at that time told the killer the make of the car, as well as the date and time when the woman would take the pet to the veterinarian. The payment for the murder was done in bitcoins.
"The FBI headquarters provided blockchain analysis of the transaction and was able to determine that the wallets of the Coinbase crypto exchange were used for payment," the court record says. The exchange, at the request of the authorities, revealed not only the transactions history, but also the name of the owner of the wallets: it was the husband of the alleged victim. He used his home computer and personal bank accounts to buy cryptocurrency. The man was arrested and faces up to 10 years in prison. The identity of the killer has not yet been established.

- Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg also continues to influence cryptocurrency quotes; he shared a photo of two goats named Max and Bitcoin. Social media users saw a secret message in this. Some of the commentators called him Bitcoin MAXimalist. And economist Alex Kruger said that the photo of the goats is a great reason for another pump of the first cryptocurrency. “This is quite in the spirit of 2021. If the market was growing when Elon Musk tweeted about Bitcoin, then surely it should grow when Zuk calls the goats Max and Bitcoin, ”he said and... he was wrong. The price of bitcoin dropped by about $5,000 after the post was published. 

- Another interesting event concerning Zukreberg took place in the capital of Russia. The Moscow court officially declared a citizen Mark Elliot Zuckerberg bankrupt. The reason for the litigation was his debt to two Russian banks in the amount of 669 thousand rubles (about $9,000).
This news could become a worldwide sensation. But the fact is that this citizen's name was Yuri Shishlyannikov until December 2018. He was born in Ukraine, and after moving to Russia, he changed his first and last name to Mark Zuckerberg, which is quite easy to do under Russian law.

- The attackers spread an interview allegedly given by Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen to the Kronen Zeitung. He "talks" about his investments in cryptocurrencies there and allegedly admits that he easily earns tens of thousands of euros a day.
According to the Watchlist Internet Internet fraud tracking service, under the guise of an interview with the Austrian President, scammers are promoting the Bitcoin Era, Bitcoin Prime and Crypto Revolt cryptocurrency trading platforms. To start trading, you need to deposit a minimum amount of €250. Then some consultants contact the investors, and the first profit is displayed on the accounts. This motivates people to invest more. However, neither deposits nor possible profits are paid out to users, Watchlist Internet stresses.

- Analysts of the research service Whalemap presented an analysis of the price dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. According to their findings, large investors, including classic companies from the world of finance, continue to buy bitcoins actively. The largest buying volumes were recorded when the price of the coin was in the range from $54,000 to $58,000.
Whalemap believes that the $52,000 price level represents the point below which it will be difficult for the cryptocurrency to leave for a long time. Moreover, as analysts predict, bitcoin can gain a foothold above $60,000 in the foreseeable future.

- PlanB, the author of the famous S2FX prediction model for the price of bitcoin, agrees that the coin will continue to rise in price. That is why he replenished his crypto wallet by purchasing BTC on May 8 at the rate of $58,776.
Among the arguments in favor of further growth in the price of bitcoin is the growth of reserves of crypto exchanges in dollar stablecoins, which has now reached an absolute maximum of $11.5 billion. Interest in bitcoin is also observed on the part of miners: the hash rate for this cryptocurrency has once again turned out to be at levels that are close to absolute highs.

- Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said at the Ethereal virtual summit that he bought Bitcoin and Ethereum in early March. He made the decision after the country's Senate approved the $1.9 trillion economic bailout plan. It is noteworthy that the United States plan to adopt another aid package, due to the high level of unemployment.
According to Suarez, people will not want to store currency in USD, so cryptocurrencies will continue to grow. The official added that bitcoin has reached a level of acceptance too high to fall under a regulatory ban.
Suarez has previously said he is exploring the possibility of transferring some of Miami's city budget reserves into digital gold. 

- The police detained two suspects of fraud in a Russian small town under the pretext of selling mining equipment. According to the investigation, the detainees posted an advertisement on the Internet about the sale of the mining farm. One of the villagers responded and transferred 1,000 rubles (about $13) as an advance. After the attackers sent a photo of the package, the future crypto-miner sent them the remaining amount. However, taking the parcel from the post office, he found two plastic water bottles and an old fire extinguisher in it, hardly suitable for cryptocurrency mining. It should be noted that this is not the first case of selling counterfeit equipment to those who wish to make money in this way.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 17 - 21, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As predicted by most experts (60%), the first half of the week benefited the dollar, strengthening it and dropping the EUR/USD pair to support 1.2050. The US inflation report, released on Wednesday May 12, pointed to an impressive rise in April and hit the stock market hard. The consumer price index climbed 0.8%, the strongest monthly gain since 2009. In annual terms, inflation rose by 4.2% versus 2.6% between March 2020 and March 2021 and showed the strongest acceleration since 2008.
Thanks to this jump, rumors about the possible curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs and an increase in the interest rate on USD began to circulate in the market again.
Risk appetite began to fall, the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices went down, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries moved up.
However, the Fed knows how to restore order in the markets. The regulator explained that this jump in inflation and consumer prices is a temporary phenomenon and is caused in first place by a surge in prices for transport services and used cars. Therefore, the FRS does not intend to either curtail QE programs or raise the interest rate due to the growth of one specific sector of the economy.
The situation turned 180 degrees after such explanations. Trading volumes in the stock markets rose again, reaching the highest values over the past two and a half months. And the European currency won back about 100 points from the dollar, finishing at 1.2143;

- GBP/USD. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators were pointing north last week. But only 30% of experts agreed that the pair, having broken through the upper border of the channel 1.3670-1.4000, would be able to reach the resistance of 1.4085. But it is them who turned out to be right: - the week's high was recorded on Tuesday, March 11 at 1.4165. The next day, the US inflation report pushed the pair down to the 1.4000 level, which turned from resistance to support. The fall was facilitated by profit-taking on the pound after reaching two-month highs. Then a rebound followed, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.4096;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair turned out to be quite accurate. Demonstrating an inverse correlation with the DXY dollar index, the yen strengthened on Tuesday May 11, as predicted by 70% of experts, reaching support at 108.35. Then the pair met the expectations of the remaining 30% of analysts and, breaking through the resistance of 109.00, reached a high at 109.78. The last chord of the week sounded at 109.35.

- cryptocurrencies. It seems that the crypto market influencers are only busy trying to destroy it in recent days.
Crypto billionaire Vitalik Buterin knocked Dogecoin clone quotes by an average of 50%. The creators of the meme currencies Shiba Inu, Akita Inu and Dogelon, currying favor with such an authority as Buterin, sent him their coins as a gift, hoping that he would not spend them and give them flattering reviews. However, the creator of Ethereum sent 50 trillion Shiba Inu ($1.2 billion at the time of the transaction) to a fund to help India fight COVID, and donated half of Akita Inu tokens ($ 431 million) on the Gitcoin platform. As a result, all these meme currencies lost about half of their value in just one day.
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg also distinguished himself, who shared a photo of two goats, calling one of them Bitcoin. Social media users saw a secret message in this. And some even took offense, deciding that Zuckerberg compared the holders of the main cryptocurrency with these animals. What the billionaire really meant remains a mystery. The price of bitcoin dropped by about $5,000 after the post was published.
However, it was Elon Musk who delivered the biggest blow to the market with his tweet. He expressed concern about "the growing consumption of fossil fuels for mining and transactions on the bitcoin network" on Wednesday and announced that Tesla would no longer accept the cryptocurrency as payment for its cars. The market reacted to this statement with a crushing collapse. In just a few hours, the BTC/USD pair fell by almost 20%, reaching a strong medium-term support level in the $46,600-47,000 zone. Perhaps it would have broken through it too, but the panic was somewhat lowered by Musk's words that Tesla would not sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens.
Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin and was ready to accept this cryptocurrency as a means of payment. The total capitalization of the crypto market grew more than twice from that moment until May 12: from $1.180 trillion to $2.556 trillion. And now it lost about $437 billion on May 12 and 13. True, the situation began to gradually stabilize by Friday evening, the market grew by $210 billion, and the BTC/USD pair rose to $50,000.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 64 to 24 points over the week and is now in the “Fear” zone. According to the index developers, one can think about opening long positions at such a moment. But if you do this, then you should be extremely careful, since, succumbing to panic, investors may continue to sell BTC.
We cited the opinion of JPMorgan Bank experts in our last review that “bitcoin reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which is why its correction begins immediately. Ethereum, on the other hand, has better liquidity and greater resilience to external factors."
The past week has once again confirmed the correctness of this analysis. If bitcoin quotes were at the level of mid-February 2021 on Friday, May 14, Ethereum increased by almost 130% over the same period, having risen from $1,750 to $4,000.
The capitalization of the main altcoin continues to grow as well. The bitcoin dominance index has dropped from 72.65% to 40.55% since the beginning of the year. The share of Ethereum, on the contrary, has increased from 10.79% to 20.52% (maximum of the week). And if the trend continues, then these two cryptocurrencies can take equal positions in the market by the end of July.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Markets have come to their senses again, realizing that there is still a long way to the start of phasing out the US fiscal stimulus programs. Fed officials are constantly reiterating that it will take several more months of steady growth in employment and inflation before discussing a specific time frame for monetary tightening. 
Analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch believe that the behavior of the EUR/USD pair is primarily influenced by what is happening in the United States. However, Europe should not be written off. The Eurozone looks much stronger today than it did a few months ago. Accelerating vaccination rates and reducing quarantine measures suggest an imminent recovery of its economy. The European Commission has already raised its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.8% to 4.3%. 
The loyalty of the US Federal Reserve to a soft monetary policy and calmness about the rise in inflation are putting serious pressure on the dollar. Investors will continue to look for how to protect their capital from depreciation due to inflation. The situation in the US stock markets is on the side of the bulls, which will contribute to the weakening of the American currency. However, at the same time we should not forget about the yield on US Treasury bonds, the growth of which, on the contrary, may provide serious support to the dollar.
If we talk about technical analysis, then here the complete advantage is on the side of the green. The growth of the EUR/USD pair is indicated by 70% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on H4, and, respectively, 85% and 100% on D1.
But the forecasts of experts do not look so unambiguous. 50% of them believe that the pair will hold out for some time in the side channel 1.1985-1.2180. At the same time, graphical analysis on both timeframes indicates that it will first fall to the lower bound of the trading range. 
30% of analysts vote for the fact that this support will be broken, and the pair will drop another 100 points lower. The remaining 20% indicate to the north, to the zone 1.2250-1.2270.
As for the events of the coming week, it is worth noting the data on the GDP of the Eurozone for the first quarter of 2021, which will become known on Tuesday, May 18, as well as the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on May 18 and 20. A portion of business activity data in Germany and the Eurozone which will be published on Friday 21 May is also of interest;

- GBP/USD. The oscillator readings on H4 look quite chaotic, but 85% of them point up onD1 as in the case of EUR/USD. The readings of trend indicators are also similar to the previous pair: 90% of trend indicators look north onH4 and 100% on D1.
Most experts expect the pair to start the week in the range of 1.4100-1.4200. However, according to 65% of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on D1, it will be expected to return to support 1.4000, and in case of its breakdown, it will move to the central zone of the channel 1.3670-1.4000.
As for graphical analysis, it draws the movement in the lateral channel of 1.4000-1.4165 on H4, followed by a breakthrough to the high of February 24 of 1.4240.
As for the macroeconomic statistics of Great Britain, one can single out the publication of data on the labor market on May 18, the consumer market on May 19 and business activity in the services sector of this country on Friday May 20;

- USD/JPY. Most experts (65%) have sided with the bears for the fourth week in a row. Support is at the levels 109.00, 108.35, the target is 107.50. The remaining 35% of analysts expect that the pair will once again try to test the resistance of 111.00. The last time it managed to overcome it more than a year ago, in March 2020.
As for the oscillators on H4, 50% are painted green, 50% are neutral gray. On D1, the neutral position is taken by half as much, 25%. Among the trend indicators, 70% look to the north on H4, and 90% on D1. The graphical analysis readings outline a trading range of 108.85-110.35;

- cryptocurrencies. Let's start with technical analysis. The BTC/USD pair has now broken through the 50-day SMA and found a new pivot in the $50,000 zone, where the strong horizontal support and 100-day SMA intersect. However, according to a number of experts, this is where the formation of the right shoulder of the "head and shoulders" pattern is completed, which increases the chances of a breakdown downward, down to the level of $40,000. The next target for the bears is the lows of January 2021 in the $30,000 zone.
The position of Vitalik Buterin and Elon Musk, who seemed to have conspired to support Dogecoin at the peak of the main cryptocurrency, does not add optimism to BTC investors either. The first one clears a place for Dogecoin by dropping the quotes of its competing clones by 50%. The second - refuses to sell Tesla cars for bitcoin, but Musk's SpaceX enters into a partnership with Dogecoin developers by paying for the launch of a new satellite to the moon in this meme currency. Elon Musk even gets the nickname "dogefather."
However, it is clearly premature to say that all the authorities have turned their backs on the main cryptocurrency.
Thus, PlanB, the author of the famous S2FX prediction model for the price of bitcoin, thinks that the coin will continue to rise in price. That is why he replenished his crypto wallet by purchasing BTC on May 8 at the rate of $58,776. Among the arguments in favor of further growth in the price of bitcoin is the growth of reserves of crypto exchanges in dollar stablecoins, which has now reached an absolute maximum of $11.5 billion. Interest in bitcoin is also observed on the part of miners: the hash rate for this cryptocurrency has once again turned out to be at levels that are close to absolute highs.
Analysts of the Whalemap research service presented an analysis of the BTC price dynamics. According to their findings, large investors, including classic companies from the world of finance, continue to buy bitcoins actively. Basing on that, Whalemap believes that the $52,000 price level represents the point below which it will be difficult for the cryptocurrency to leave for a long time. Moreover, as analysts predict, bitcoin can gain a foothold above $60,000 in the foreseeable future.
As for long-term forecasts, Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko believes that bitcoin could reach the value of $250,000 within five years. According to the expert, the rapid adoption of the main cryptocurrency will resemble the popularization of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Also, the growth in the value of bitcoin may be affected by the situation in the fiat market, which is now going through hard times.
“At one time, many large companies increased their capitalization to a trillion dollars in 10-20 years. The main cryptocurrency managed to do this much faster. I do not think that cryptocurrencies will start to drawdown sharply in the near future,” Yusko believes. “The market already has a lot of investors who will not leave it until the last.”
At the same time, the head of Morgan Creek Capital did not fail to comment on the dogefather favorite. “However, not all assets are useful and promising,” the financier stated. - Dogecoin, for example, is a joke and a marketing thing for me. It is natural that it is rapidly becoming more expensive after references from Elon Musk. I think this can happen with any coin, even if it has no real value."
The name of the head of Tesla and SpaceX has already sounded many times in the current review - after all, it was his concern about the environment with mining bitcoin that collapsed the market. And it is not at all excluded that after some time bitcoin will split into two coins - "green" BTC, mined from renewable energy sources, and "red", the mining of which strikes a blow on the ecosystem of the planet. But, as it turned out, scammers have already invented a "mining farm" that does not consume any electricity at all.
Police detained two suspects in a Russian small town, who posted an advertisement on the Internet about the sale of a mining farm. One of the villagers responded and transferred 1,000 rubles (about $13) as an advance. After the attackers sent a photo of the package, the future crypto miner sent them the remaining amount. However, taking the parcel from the post office, he found two plastic water bottles and an old fire extinguisher in it. Of course, the chances of getting at least something on such a "farm" are below zero. But if suddenly someone succeeds, it will be the most environmentally friendly cryptocurrency in the world).

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- The crypto market has already experienced three serious falls the in first two decades of May. The first two collapses were associated with Elon Musk. Tesla first announced that it would no longer sell its electric cars for Bitcoin. “We are concerned about the use of fossil fuels for mining,” it said in a press release. - The future of our planet depends on the amount of gas emissions into the atmosphere. And we're not going to stand aside from addressing environmental issues. '
The second blow to the market was struck by a tweet from Elon Musk that, perhaps, Tesla will still sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens. Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin. It may get rid of them now..

- The third major drop in the crypto market was experienced since Tuesday, May 18, to Wednesday, May 19. This time it comes after Chinese financial organizations were banned from providing services related to digital assets.
According to Reuters, a statement was issued by three financial regulators overseeing online financial transactions, the payments market and clearing.
Financial institutions in China are now unable to provide services for the storage and management of cryptocurrency, as well as release products related to digital assets. It is also forbidden to use them as a payment instrument. The three regulators said in a joint statement that virtual currencies are "not supported by real value," their prices are easy to manipulate, and trade contracts are not protected by Chinese law.

- Crypto enthusiasts have developed a new Fuck Elon Tweet (FUCKELON) token. By doing this, they want to demonstrate contempt for Elon Musk's tweets, which affect the digital asset market. The token is based on the Binance Smart Chain. According to the statement, the maximum offer will be 1 billion coins. More than 9,000 addresses became FUCKELON holders.
The coin has already risen by 2000% and the token is trading at the level of $0.005260 at the time of writing.

¬- LMAX institutional platform strategist Joel Kruger considers Elon Musk's statements about high energy consumption of bitcoin as only a catalyst for a long-overdue correction. “There is too much buzz around Tesla and Elon Musk,” he writes. "The pullback is caused by this to a much lesser extent, and by technical overheating after the parabolic movement of the course to a much greater extent."
Another expert and veteran trading veteran, Peter Brandt, said earlier this month that bitcoin would have to "come back to Jesus." And now he confirmed that the current fall fits the description of the moment he had indicated.

- Popular cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis believes that bitcoin traders shouldn't worry about Elon Musk's comments or bitcoin's depreciation. Davis advises taking a look at the 2017 bull rally and seeing that bitcoin can survive multiple declines. The trader noted that there were 4 different corrections in the range of 30-45% then. The analyst is confident that the current growth is only at an early stage, and believes that the rates will soar much higher by the end of this year:
“You should look more broadly. The current Bitcoin situation is not a cause for concern. This is a fairly common situation that happens in the cryptocurrency market. The situation is likely to become mega-bullish again after a few weeks. Everyone will start to say again that BTC is a new concept of money and stuff like that. Now is not the time to panic and sell cryptocurrency, but it is high time to buy it in panic. We have excellent buying opportunities."

- Analysts at Glassnode confirm Davis' words. According to them, many new investors panicked out of their positions during the rollback, while long-term investors continued to increase their investments.
For example, business analytics company MicroStrategy took advantage of the decline in bitcoin and bought an additional 229 BTC worth $10 million. The acquisition was made at an average price of $43,663. To date, MicroStrategy has 92,079 BTC at its disposal, acquired for a total of $2.251 billion at an average price of about $ 24,450 per coin.
Investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," is planning to buy on the current fall in bitcoin.

- The oil and petroleum pool, supported by the U.S. military, threatens the environment more than bitcoin mining. This was announced by Alex Gladstein, Strategy Director of the Human Rights Foundation, and James McGinnis, co-founder of David Energy. According to Forbes, the US military used up to 1 million barrels of oil daily in 2017. If the Ministry of Defence were a country, this level of consumption would make it the 55th most carbon dioxide-emitted country in the world.

- The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has recorded a tenfold increase in cryptocurrency investment fraud. According to the report, the agency received 6,792 allegations of attackers from October 2020 to March 2021. The total amount of damage from their actions exceeded $80 million. The FTC says this figure was 10 times lower a year earlier: 570 appeals with losses totaling $7.5 million.
Scam organizers usually target investors aged between 20 and 49. Most scams operate on a pyramid basis. The most popular methods of finding victims are advertising "investment advice from experienced traders" and "distribution of cryptocurrency on behalf of celebrities." The attackers earned over $2 million on the name of Elon Musk alone.

- Bitcoin is not as popular among criminal groups as it might seem. This is the conclusion reached by blockchain analysts at CipherTrace in their monthly report, where they found that only 1% of all transactions on the bitcoin network are associated with illegal activities. According to them, in 2020, only 1.2% of transactions on the BTC blockchain were made between crypto exchanges and high-risk organizations. 
In their sample, CipherTrace classify the following as a high-risk organization: sites with blockchain games, mixers, darknet, hype scam campaigns, ransomware; malware, high-risk exchanges.
Moreover, analysts have found out the volume of transactions used for money laundering. They concluded that the share of such transactions fell from more than 1% to 0.11% in 2020.

- Founded in 1932, American furniture chain Ethan Allen's is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Since the beginning of 2021, the company's shares have risen by 50% due to the inattention of some investors who confuse securities under the ticker ETH with the second most capitalized cryptocurrency.
According to The Wall Street Journal, economic recovery was not the only reason for the growth. Some investors hear the call “Buy ETH” and buy Ethan Allen's stock instead of Ethereum. According to the publication, in the last month alone, the turnover of ETH shares increased by 56%.

- The founder of the cryptobank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, predicted in an interview with New York Magazine an increase in the price of Ethereum to $5000. This is facilitated by a combination of three factors: payment apps and stablecoins, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFT), he said. “I'm almost 100% sure that the price will rise - it's just mathematics,” Novogratz explained.

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 24 - 28, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. "Some Committee members would consider it appropriate to start discussing the topic of curtailing monetary stimulus if the US economy is moving quickly towards the targets set by the Fed," the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which was published on Wednesday, May 19, say. The wording is more than vague. But it was against this background that the bears tried to strengthen the dollar and drop the EUR/USD pair down. As a result, having bounced off the high of the last eight weeks at 1.2245, it dropped by 85 points - to support1.2160.
However, then the markets realized quickly that this phrase, in fact, does not mean anything in reality. And even if the US Federal Reserve starts to discuss in June the possibility of curtailing the QE program and raising interest rates, it is not worth waiting for concrete steps on these issues yet. This "enlightenment" allowed the bulls to return the pair to the 1.2240 high. But they failed to gain a foothold there.
On Friday, May 21, an increase in the yield on 10-year US government bonds from 1.61% to 1.63% and a decline in US stock indices, coupled with weak German business activity, pushed the EUR/USD pair back to support at 1.2160 once again. The last chord of the week sounded not far from there, at the level of 1.2180; 

- GBP/USD. The British currency is fluctuating following the risk appetite of investors. And naturally, the dynamics of GBP/USD is influenced by the same factors as the previous pair. At the same time, the pound seeks to renew not only the annual, but also the 36-month high at 1.4241, and has almost reached this target.
Making a forecast for the past week, most experts pointed to the corridor 1.4100-1.4200. And this forecast, with a minimum tolerance, turned out to be almost perfect.
At the beginning of the week, boosted by positive statistics from the UK labor market, the pair climbed from the 1.4075 horizon to 1.4220. Then, after the rebound, trading shifted a few points to the north, to the range of 1.4100-1.4232.
On Friday, during the American session, treasuries growth and impressive data from IHS Markit on the US services sector forced the bulls to retreat again, and the pair ended the five-day period at 1.4153;  

- USD/JPY. Most experts were siding with the bears for four weeks in a row, expecting the pair to drop to support at 109.00 and then at 108.35. And their expectations were justified: breaking through the support at 109.00, the pair went further south. True, it did not reach the second goal, and the local bottom was recorded at 108.56.
The yen was supported by the decline in US bond yields and commodity prices for almost the entire week. Perhaps the pair could go down further, but the rise in oil prices and treasuries yields brought it back to the horizon of 109.00, next to which, at the level of 108.93, it completed the trading session;

- cryptocurrencies. The bullish rally that began in autumn 2020 caused many investors to have a state of euphoria. Having decided that digital assets will grow forever, they forgot that the crypto market is not just volatile, but super-volatile. And that just a small shock is enough to cause its serious fluctuations. And what if there are several such shocks, and they are strong enough? In this case, as with an earthquake, panic immediately arises, and the tsunami wave literally flushes off the market all positions opened using leverage.
The crypto market experienced three such serious earthquakes in the first two decades of May. The first two collapses were associated with Elon Musk.
Tesla first announced the end of the sale of its electric vehicles for bitcoins, explaining this with concern for the environment. “We are concerned about the use of fossil fuels for mining. The future of our planet depends on the amount of gas emissions into the atmosphere. And we are not going to stay away from solving environmental problems, ”- its press release said.
The second blow to the market was struck by a tweet from Elon Musk that, perhaps, Tesla will still sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens. Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin. It may get rid of them now.
The third panic hit the crypto market after Chinese financial institutions were banned from providing services related to digital assets. A corresponding statement was issued by three financial regulators overseeing online financial transactions, the payments market and clearing.
Financial institutions in China are now unable to provide services for the storage and management of cryptocurrency, as well as release products related to digital assets. It is also forbidden to use them as a payment instrument. The three regulators said in a joint statement that virtual currencies are "not supported by real value, their prices are easy to manipulate, and trade contracts are not protected by Chinese law".
The head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, expressed solidarity with the Chinese authorities, criticizing cryptocurrencies, saying that they pose risks to financial stability, and pointing out that their stricter regulation may be required. In parallel, the US Treasury Department came up with a proposal, according to which information on cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 should necessarily be reported to the tax service.
As a reminder, bitcoin hit an all-time high at $64,600 on April 14. And now, just five weeks later, on May 19, it fell to $30,225, losing 53%. (For Ethereum, these numbers were, respectively, $4,364, $1,927 and 56%). Then the market seemed to be on the mend, and the BTC/USD pair climbed to $42.285. However, there was another reversal on Friday, May 21, and it dropped to the level of $33,550 by the evening of the same day.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to a 12-month low on May 20 at just 11 points. By the very end of the working week, May 21, it also grew slightly, up to 19 points, and is now in the "Extreme Fear" zone. According to the index developers, such values indicate that the market is still in a strong panic, and that, possibly, its growth will begin after some time.
It is clear that the panic sell-off has affected not only bitcoin, but the entire crypto market as a whole. If on May 12 its total volume was $ 2.54 trillion, then after only seven days, on May 19, this figure fell to $1.43 trillion. It was at the same level on the evening of Friday 21 May.
Concluding the review of the past week, it will be useful to add a little optimism to this negativity. After all, in addition to those who lost their money, there are those who made big profits on the collapse of prices. According to the itsblockchain portal, one of the whales sold 3,000 BTC on May 9 at an average price of $58,500 and bought 3,521 BTC at an average price of $44,500 from May 15 to May 19. Thus, the profit of this investor was $18.7 million, and at the same time they increased their holdings by 521 BTC. And it is appropriate to remind here that the NordFX brokerage company offers its clients the opportunity to earn not only on the growth, but also on the fall of the market. At the same time, it is enough to have just $150 on the account to open both a long and a short position with a volume of 1 BTC. (Tthis figure is 10 times lower for 1 ETH and equals $15).

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If in the spring of 2020 the determining factor was the fall of the economy under the blows of coronavirus, a year later everything turned 180 degrees. And now the main driver of the markets has become reflation, that is, the recovery of the economy due to its active stimulation.
The S&P500 and Nasdaq indices update historical highs over and over again. And investors, despite the overheating of the stock market, sell dollars over and over again in order to buy back sinking stocks and other risky assets.
Starting March 30, 2021, the DXY dollar index tends to go down, while the EUR/USD pair goes up.  And although Fed officials say that discussions on the possibility of curtailing QE may begin as early as June, this may strengthen the dollar only in the short term. The weakness of recent macro statistics is unlikely to allow the regulator to deprive the US economy of financial support. And if any concrete steps are taken, it is unlikely to happen until the end of this year.
Of course, no one questions the stable recovery of the US economy. However, this process has recently slowed down noticeably. So, perhaps, it will be Europe that will become an example of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Eurozone looks much stronger today than it did a few months ago. Accelerating vaccination rates and reducing quarantine measures in many EU countries suggest an imminent recovery of its economy. The European Commission has already raised its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.8% to 4.3%. And now, an attack by the hawks can be expected at the June meeting of the ECB.
The European economy is export oriented. Therefore, the Joe Biden administration can also seriously help it by lowering import tariffs imposed by the previous US President Donald Trump. 
All this suggests that the bullish trend for the EUR/USD pair may continue. 70% of experts agree with this forecast, indicating this year's high of 1.2350 as a target. The nearest resistance levels are 1.2245 and 1.2300. In the longer term, we can talk about the growth of the pair to the height of 1.2550.
The remaining 30% of analysts believe that the overbought US stock market should lead to a large-scale correction, as a result of which the pair will break through the support of 1.2160, first drop to the level of 1.2050, and then reach support in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone.
Graphical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair will stay in the 1.2160-1.2245 trading range for some time, after which it will go south. There is some confusion among the technical indicators on H4. But their readings are more definite on D1: 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are colored green.
In terms of macro statistics, Thursday, May 27 seems to be the most interesting. We will find out the volumes of orders for durable goods, as well as data on US GDP on that day;

- GBP/USD. With improved weather conditions, May is likely to have good spending and business performance in the UK. In addition, the country's government is actively lifting the remaining quarantine restrictions, planning to remove all of them on June 21. All this may lead to the fact that the bulls will still achieve their goal, and the GBP/USD pair will renew the 36-month high at 1.4241. 65% of analysts agree with this forecast, supported by 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
True, graphical analysis predicts a fall for the pound in the first ten days of June. The remaining 35% of the experts are also expecting a correction to the south. Support levels 1.4100, 1.4075 and 1.4000

- USD/JPY. Japan's low CPI (consumer price index), which was released on Thursday May 20, showed that real yields there significantly outperform yields elsewhere. And this is despite the serious weakening of the yen during the first quarter of this year.
The strong pressure on the yen as a safe haven currency is exerted by global reflation, as well as by the growth of yields on long-term government securities of other countries, especially the United States. For comparison, the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is 0.25%, while the yield on similar US bonds is 1.63%.  
On the other hand, the yen's purchasing power and the resistance of the Japanese economy to rising prices and inflation speaks in favor of the yen. Published data on the PPI showed that the actual yield on Japanese bonds in April was positive, while their US counterparts, thanks to the Fed's printing press, are sinking deeper below zero.  
Like the four previous weeks, the majority of experts (this time they are 75%) believe that the weakening of the yen has gone too far and it should continue to win back the lost positions from the dollar. Although expectations in this case are quite modest: the targets are the levels 108.55, 108.30 and 108.00. And the support at 107.50 is seen as a very distant target. The remaining 25% of experts expect the pair to return to the 110.00 zone. The nearest resistance is 109.35.
The indicators on H4 look rather mixed, there is a slight advantage (60%) for the bears on D1. Graphical analysis on both time frames indicates a sideways movement of the pair in the 108.30-110.00 channel;

- cryptocurrencies. After such a collapse, as one would expect, interested influencers rushed together to calm and convince the crypto community that not everything is so scary, and the best is yet to come.
LMAX institutional platform strategist Joel Kruger considers Elon Musk's statements about high energy consumption of bitcoin as only a catalyst for a long-overdue correction. “There is too much buzz around Tesla and Elon Musk,” he writes. "The pullback is caused by this to a much lesser extent, and by technical overheating after the parabolic movement of the course to a much greater extent."
Popular cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis believes that bitcoin traders shouldn't worry about Elon Musk's comments or bitcoin's depreciation. Davis advises taking a look at the 2017 bull rally and seeing that bitcoin can survive multiple declines. He noted that there were 4 different corrections in the range of 30-45% then.
Lark Davis is confident that the current growth is only at an early stage and believes that the rates will soar much higher by the end of this year. “You should look broader,” he advises. - The current bitcoin situation is not a cause for concern. This is a fairly common situation that happens in the cryptocurrency market. The situation is likely to become mega-bullish again after a few weeks. Everyone will start to say again that BTC is a new concept of money and stuff like that. Now is not the time to panic and sell cryptocurrency, but it is high time to buy it in panic. We have excellent buying opportunities."
Analysts at Glassnode confirm Davis' words. According to them, when many new investors panicked out of their positions during the rollback, long-term investors continued to increase their investments. For example, business analytics company MicroStrategy took advantage of the decline in bitcoin and bought an additional 229 BTC worth $10 million. The acquisition was made at an average price of $43,663. Investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," is planning to buy on the current fall in bitcoin.
Despite the collapse, Ark Invest fund manager Katie Wood reiterated her outlook for bitcoin. In an interview with Bloomberg, she said that the price of the main cryptocurrency will rise to $500,000 in the future. Katie Wood believes that the fall in the price of BTC was due to too strong emotions, which, as a rule, are not related to fundamental factors. At the same time, she still sees a certain connection with the fact that the most volatile and innovative part of the stock market has undergone a significant correction.
A fly in the ointment is Katie Wood's statement that, despite a fall of more than 50%, the price of bitcoin has not yet bottomed out.
As for the main altcoin, there are enough bullish forecasts here as well. For example, the founder of cryptobank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz predicted in an interview with New York Magazine an increase in Ethereum quotes to $5,000. This is facilitated by a combination of three factors: payment apps and stablecoins, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFT), he said. “I'm almost 100% sure that the price will rise - it's just mathematics,” Novogratz explained.
And at the end of the review, our mini heading of crypto life hacks. This time, about how you can make money on the negative statements of eminent newsmakers.
Outraged by the mentioned tweets of Elon Musk, crypto enthusiasts have developed a new Fuck Elon Tweet (FUCKELON) token. According to their statement, the maximum offer will be 1 billion coins. FUCKELON is based on the Binance Smart Chain and has over 9,000 wallets already. And most importantly, the coin has already risen in price by 2000% and is trading at $0.005260 at the time of writing.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- A representative of the international environmental organization Greenpeace told the Financial Times about the suspension of accepting donations in bitcoin due to the high energy consumption when mining cryptocurrency. “The amounts of energy required to run bitcoin are becoming more evident over time, so this policy no longer seems reasonable,” he said.
The organization began accepting bitcoin in 2014. Greenpeace then noted the environmental benefits of digital gold in the form of lower transaction processing fees compared to banks.

- Mining companies in North America will form the Bitcoin Mining Council, which aims to reduce the industry's greenhouse gas emissions. This decision was made by leading miners at a meeting with Elon Musk.
The meeting was organized by the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor. Leaders of Argo Blockchain, Blockcap, Core Scientific, Galaxy Digital, HIVE Blockchain, Hut8 Mining, Marathon and Riot Blockchain participated in the conversation with the Tesla founder.
According to Musk, the companies agreed to disclose data on the use of renewable energy in their activities, as well as share their plans in this area. The billionaire added that they agreed to encourage other miners to do the same.
Against this background, according to data from the CoinGecko service, the crypto market capitalization has grown by about 14%, while bitcoin has risen in price by almost 12%, and returned to the $40,000 zone on Wednesday, May 26.

- One of the first bitcoin miners, Marshal Long, said that Musk spoke with representatives of companies that control "a very, very small network hashrate." “Don't expect any changes, that's what I'm saying,” he concluded. According to Long, if the billionaire wants to change the situation, he should negotiate with Coinmint and members of the non-profit Texas Blockchain Association, which control about 15% of the hashrate.

- The investment company Ark Invest General Director of Katie Wood confirms her forecast once again. She is confident that, no matter what, bitcoin will still reach $500,000.
Wood says the recent correction has raised the chances of SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) approval for bitcoin funds. The point is a product with a lower price tag is more likely to get the green light.
In addition, Katie Wood spoke about the statements by Elon Musk that caused the collapse of the crypto market. She suggested that he was pressured by shareholders such as BlackRock to drop the BTC price. However, the head of Ark Invest expects Musk to return to the crypto investor community.

- Professor of NYU Stern Business School Aswath Damodaran believes that Ethereum is better suited for trading on exchanges than bitcoin. According to the expert, the ETH ecosystem is more flexible, which makes it easier to work with it in trades, especially in an environment of increased volatility.
Damodaran noted that many small assets on exchanges are trading better than bitcoin, as transactions with them are faster. The BTC network is much more involved, which means that transfers can take a fairly long period of time, even by the standards of fiat transactions. 
“This is the main commercial feature of bitcoin. It is quite difficult to make money on trading with it if you do not catch the moment. The main coin is practically unpredictable, which is why traders often have to rely on good luck. " Therefore, bitcoin is more suitable as a global asset for investment, the specialist believes.

- More than 1000 employees of 16 Domino's Pizza restaurants in the Netherlands will be able to choose between salary in euros or in bitcoins. “We are a modern company, and we work with a large number of young employees,” said the co-owners of the chain. "We hear them talk about bitcoin and want to offer them the opportunity to own cryptocurrency."
The announcement coincided with the 11th anniversary of the first documented commercial bitcoin transaction in which two pizzas were purchased from Papa John's. At current prices, the then paid 10,000 BTC is worth more than $380 million. Years later, this day was named Bitcoin Pizza Day.

- According to billionaire and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubinstein, bitcoin has almost no chance of disappearing completely. Even if the asset loses most of its value, it will still be in demand in its own infrastructure. If the coin continues to rise in price, then even the central banks of the states that opposed cryptocurrencies will begin to consider it.
“New asset types are not just a fleeting craze that quickly ceases to be interesting. We are already talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. The coin, which was originally a means for digital payments, has become a full-fledged asset,” the billionaire believes.

- Matthew McDermott, head of the digital assets department of the American bank Goldman Sachs, confirmed the growing demand for cryptocurrencies among institutional investors and asset managers. He also noted in his letter to Global Marco Research that cryptocurrency storage solutions have become safer, however inconsistent actions of regulators can have a negative impact on the development of this market.

- The Development and Reform Commission in China's Inner Mongolia region has published a list of 8 points, in which it describes measures to "combat the mining of virtual currencies" in its territory. The authorities of the region note that they have developed this plan in pursuance of the order of the State Council of China on combating financial risks arising in the process of mining and trading cryptocurrencies.
Industrial parks and data centers are ordered to reduce energy consumption, and telecommunications companies are prohibited from working with miners under the threat of license revocation. The authorities also promise to prosecute illegal miners. The same applies to money laundering attempts and illegal fundraising using cryptocurrencies. In addition, the list mentions Internet cafes that will be closed if mining on their territory is revealed.
Companies whose activities are related to cryptocurrencies mining, and their senior employees are subject to inclusion in the list of unreliable persons, and officials supporting the miners will be subject to disciplinary responsibility.
According to the University of Cambridge, the Inner Mongolia region is currently the third largest bitcoin computing power in China after Xinjiang and Sichuan. They are expected to release similar documents soon.

- According to Reuters, the largest mining companies BTC.TOP and HashCow are winding down their activities in China amid tightening legislation. HashCow, has not yet stopped the current capacity, but has refused to buy new farms.
As for BTC.TOP, this company announced a complete cessation of work in the PRC.

- The Russian authorities may partially reconsider their position on the use of digital currencies. Now bitcoin and the rest of the coins are recognized in fact as property. Such tools are prohibited to use when paying for goods and services. However, there is talk that the State Duma (Parliament) of Russia is already ready to amend the legislation. Cryptocurrency payments can be legalized if they take place under a contractual agreement between the parties.

- The Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency has turned out to be more recognizable among US citizens than Ethereum. This is evidenced by the results of a joint survey conducted by Harris Poll and CouponCabin.
The study involved more than 2,000 American adults, most of whom (89%) had heard of cryptocurrency at least once. It turned out that 71% of respondents know about bitcoin, 29% about Dogecoin and 21% about Ethereum. The USD Coin stablecoin has the same number, 21%. About 18% of survey participants said they are familiar with Litecoin, 10% have heard about the existence of Stellar.
Almost a third of respondents (31%) are confident that cryptocurrencies can become the future of money. Digital assets are seen as a get-rich-quick scheme by 23%. On the other hand, 19% called it a “questionable” technology. Almost half of the survey participants (44%) said they agree to receive cryptocurrency through incentive programs or cashback. 

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[Stan NordFX]

Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 31 - June 04, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. If you look at the chart of this pair on D1, it is safe to talk about the uptrend in the last eight weeks. But if you switch to lower timeframes, H4 or H1, it becomes clear that it has been in the "sideways" for the last two weeks, being squeezed in the range1.2125-1.2265. The last chord of the five-day period sounded in the area of the Pivot Point of this channel as well, at the level of 1.2194, without giving any guidance for the future.
The macro statistics of the past week looks diversified, and therefore hasn't managed to become a driver for the movement of the pair either to the north or to the south. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States continues to decline, but the indicator of pending sales in the real estate market is falling. Orders for capital goods (excluding defense and aviation) have risen, while orders for durable goods have fallen. And the annual data on US GDP (Q1) has remained at the same level. So investors don't know what to do.
Last spring, when the Fed flooded the market with cheap money, its policy was perfectly understandable: to pull the economy out of the crisis and support the purchasing power of the population. A year has passed, the recession is over, stock indices are mushrooming, unemployment is declining, inflation is gaining momentum. But the Fed continues to insist that the set targets have not yet been achieved and therefore it is too early to wind down the fiscal stimulus (QE) programs. So what should investors do with their spare money?
Some of these funds have gone to the long-overbought stock market, bringing the S&P500 back above 4200 and the Dow Jones above 3450. And another part, $485.3 billion, sits idle on central bank accounts at zero interest rates. And it should be noted that due to QE programs, this happens not only in the United States, but also in other countries, including Europe. As a result, a huge amount of both dollars and European and other currencies have settled in hands of not only American, but also foreign investors. And the market plunged into doubts, which is clearly visible on the EUR/USD chart;

- GBP/USD.  The dynamics of GBP/USD is influenced by the same factors as the previous pair. And just like the euro, the British currency paired with the dollar has been in a sideways trend for two weeks, fluctuating within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. However, unlike the European currency, the activity of the bulls on the pound was significantly higher. This was facilitated by expectations of a faster than forecast increase in interest rates by the Bank of England.
One of the managers of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, announced on Thursday, May 27 that rates could rise in the first half of 2022. At the same time, the official stipulated that this would happen only if the labor market recovers faster than expected.
Investors' optimism was added by the comment of Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the latest statistics on COVID-19 does not require adjusting plans to lift quarantine restrictions on June 21. After both of these statements, the pair approached the 36-month high again, where, at 1.4188, it completed the trading session;

- USD/JPY. Only 25% of experts voted for the growth of the dollar in this pair in the past forecast. But in the battle between bulls and bears, they were strongly supported by the growth in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds, which rose from 1.57% to 1.62% on Thursday June 27. Given that the yen is a safe haven currency, such changes always put strong pressure on it, especially when you consider that the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is only 0.25%.
The yen was also pressured by fears of a delay in Japan's economic recovery. They were caused by media reports that the country's authorities plan to extend the state of emergency in Tokyo and some other regions for three weeks, until June 20. Additional support to the dollar was provided by the US budget proposed by the administration of President Joe Biden in the amount of $6 trillion.  
As a result, the USD/JPY pair broke out of the range 108.55-109.75 and, having gone up, reached the height of 110.20, updating the high of the last seven weeks. As for the week's finish, it was slightly lower: at the level of 109.83;

- cryptocurrencies. You can currently find a lot of similarities with the beginning of the crypto winter in 2014 and 2018. However, there are also many differences. Therefore, it is not worth yet to firmly assert that we are now witnessing the entry into winter 2021. Rather, the past month can be called late autumn, after which, bypassing winter, spring can start straight away.
The market is under pressure of the ongoing struggle against mining and trading in virtual currencies in China. For example, the 8 paragraphs of the document published by the Inner Mongolia Reform and Development Commission can help understand how this is happening. (According to the University of Cambridge, this region is China's third in terms of computing capacity of bitcoin).
So, Industrial parks and data centers are ordered to reduce energy consumption, and telecommunications companies are prohibited from working with miners under the threat of license revocation. The authorities also promise to prosecute illegal miners. The same applies to money laundering attempts and illegal fundraising using cryptocurrencies. In addition, the list mentions Internet cafes that will be closed if mining on their territory is revealed. Companies whose activities are related to cryptocurrencies mining, and their senior employees are subject to inclusion in the list of unreliable persons, and officials supporting the miners will be subject to disciplinary responsibility.
According to Reuters, the major mining companies BTC.TOP and HashCow are winding down their operations in China amid such tightening legislation. HashCow has not yet stopped the current capacity but has refused to buy new farms.
As for BTC.TOP, this company announced a complete cessation of work in the PRC.
On the other hand, there is good news as well. Elon Musk, because of whom the market experienced two serious falls in May, has now helped it grow again. A number of North American mining companies had a meeting with him,
which was organized by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor and decided to form the Bitcoin Mining Council, which aims to reduce the industry's greenhouse gas emissions. 
One of the first bitcoin miners, Marshal Long, criticized the move, saying that Musk was talking to the wrong companies because they control "a very, very small network hashrate." According to Long, if the billionaire wants to change the situation, he should negotiate with Coinmint and members of the non-profit Texas Blockchain Association, which control about 15% of the hashrate.
However, be that as it may, but the decision to create the Bitcoin Mining Council gave its positive result: according to the CoinGecko service, the crypto market capitalization increased by about 14%, and bitcoin rose in price by almost 12% against its background. The BTC/USD pair was trading at $40.865 at the high of the week, on May 26. It did not manage to overcome the $41,000 mark and dropped to the $35,000 area by the end of Friday once again.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to its 12-month low on May 24 at just 10 points, which is in line with the “Extreme Fear” of the market. However, along with the decline in the index, the likelihood of new purchases from investors expecting a large discount is growing as well. That was what happened this time as well. Bouncing off the bottom, the quotes went up. The indicator is in the "Fear" zone at around 21 points on Friday afternoon, May 28. So, the potential for further growth of the main cryptocurrency has not yet been exhausted.
The total crypto market capitalization peaked on May 12, reaching $2.560 trillion. But then a collapse followed, and the market had lost more than 40% by the time of writing this review, on May 28, shrinking to $1.529 trillion. About 1 million leveraged transactions were liquidated during this short period.
The lowest value in May for the bitcoin dominance index was 39.22%. It is slightly higher now at 43.11%. And it is possible that growth will continue further, thanks to the sale of less stable altcoins.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank believe that the current situation resembles 2002-2007, when the USD index was going down. According to their analysts, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
But Morgan Stanley experts have the opposite opinion. They believe that current events are more like the 1980s and 1990s, when the dollar strengthened in the face of a large current account deficit. And now this deficit in relation to GDP is the highest since 2008. This is due to the fact that, due to the QE programs, imports to the United States are growing faster than exports. But the DXY dollar index bulls hope that the outpacing dynamics of the US economy compared to the European and global ones will stir up investor interest in the US currency and other assets.
50% of analysts agree with this point of view in the short term, expecting the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.1985-1.2000 zone. The nearest support is 1.2130 and 1.2060. 30% of experts vote for the continuation of the sideways trend in channel 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% support the breakdown of the upper border of this channel and the growth of the pair to this year's high 1.2350.
It should be noted that when moving from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of strengthening the dollar and the decline of the pair increases from 50% to 70%.
There is a complete discord among the oscillators on H4. D1 is still dominated by green. There are 50% of such oscillators, another 25% are colored red and the remaining 25% are colored neutral gray. Most trend indicators on D1 (75%) point north. 
A lot of important economic information is expected in the coming week. We are expecting the publication of data on the consumer market in Germany on Monday, May 31, and there will be similar statistics for the Eurozone as a whole the next day, on Tuesday. Also, there will be information on ISM's business activity in the US manufacturing sector on June 1.
German retail sales data will be released on Wednesday June 2. The report on the level of employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the US service sector will be released on Thursday, June 3. And there will be data on retail sales in the Eurozone and, traditionally, on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) at the very end of the working week, on June 4;

- GBP/USD. Some of the experts (60% of them) have considered the statement of Gertjan Vlieghe regarding the increase in interest rates quite specific and, on this basis, expect that the pound will renew its 36-month high at 1.4240 in the near future. In support of their forecast, they remind that the Bank of England improved its forecast regarding the pace of economic recovery in early May, and that the economy should return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year.
Other analysts (40%), on the contrary, believe that everything looks rather vague, that the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and that a lot can happen during this time. In general, it's too early to rejoice. Especially since they do not sleep overseas either. Therefore, this part of the experts stakes on the dollar and expects the GBP/USD pair to fall. The nearest support levels are 1.4175, 1.4135 and 1.4100. The target is 1.4000.
Technical indicators still side with the bulls. There are 75% of those among the oscillators on D1,  95% among the trend indicators. Graphical analysis shows a downward rebound from resistance 1.4240 and a fall to support 1.4000.
As for the events of the week, two speeches of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on June 1 and 3 can be noted, during which investors will wait for new promises to raise interest rates. Also of interest is the hearing of the UK inflation report, which is scheduled for Thursday June 3;      

- USD/JPY. The technical analysis readings for this pair could be called GreenPeace. 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on H4, as well as 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are colored green. The bullish sentiment is also supported by 60% of the experts. The nearest resistance is at 110.00, target No. 1 is the high of the previous week at 110.20, target No. 2 is the renewal of the 21-week high at 110.95.
40% of analysts side with the bears, who expect the pair to return to the channel 108.55-109.75. In case of a breakdown of its lower border, the next target is 107.50;

- cryptocurrencies. - According to billionaire and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubinstein, bitcoin has almost no chance of disappearing completely. Even if the asset loses most of its value, it will still be in demand in its own infrastructure. If the coin continues to rise in price, then even the central banks of the states that opposed cryptocurrencies will begin to consider it.
“New asset types are not just a fleeting craze that quickly ceases to be interesting. We are already talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. The coin, which was originally a means for digital payments, has become a full-fledged asset,” the billionaire believes.
Glassnode data, which indicate a build-up of long-term positions in bitcoin by whales, as well as an outflow of large investors from OTC markets, also confirm Rubinstein’s words. This may indicate another phase of asset accumulation after a deep drawdown, which prevented bitcoin, and after it, the entire cryptocurrency market, from going into a real free fall.
Many influencers are also filled with optimism. The investment company Ark Invest general director Katie Wood confirms her forecast once again. She is confident that, no matter what, bitcoin will still reach $500,000.
Wood says the recent correction has raised the chances of SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) approval for bitcoin funds. The point is, a product with a lower price tag is more likely to get the green light.
In addition, Katie Wood spoke about the statements by Elon Musk that caused the collapse of the crypto market. She suggested that he was pressured by shareholders such as BlackRock to drop the BTC price. However, the head of Ark Invest expects Musk to return to the crypto investor community.
The future of ethereum is seen even more rosy, according to some experts, . Professor of NYU Stern Business School Aswath Damodaran believes that ethereum is better suited for trading on exchanges than bitcoin. According to the expert, the ETH ecosystem is more flexible, which makes it easier to work with it in trades, especially in an environment of increased volatility.
Damodaran noted that many small assets on exchanges are trading better than bitcoin, as transactions with them are faster. The BTC network is much more involved, which means that transfers can take a fairly long period of time, even by the standards of fiat transactions. Therefore, bitcoin is more suitable as a global asset for investment, the specialist believes.
And some statistics at the end of the review.  The Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency turns out to be more recognizable than ethereum among US citizens, perhaps thanks to Elon Musk. This is evidenced by the results of a joint survey conducted by Harris Poll and CouponCabin.
The study involved more than 2000 American adults, most of whom (89%) had heard of cryptocurrency at least once. It turned out that 71% of respondents know about bitcoin, 29% about Dogecoin and 21% about Ethereum. The USD Coin stablecoin has the same number, 21%. About 18% of survey participants said they are familiar with Litecoin, 10% have heard about the existence of Stellar.
Digital assets as a get-rich-quick scheme are considered by 23%, and almost a third of respondents (31%) are confident that cryptocurrencies can become the future of money.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- The strategist of the JPMorgan financial holding Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou has not ruled out a further decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency, Yahoo Finance writes. “We stated previously that the failure of bitcoin to break the $60,000 barrier will automatically lead to bearish momentum and further exits. This has probably become a significant driver of the current correction," the expert says.
In the medium-term perspective, Panigirtzoglou is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000. He has also expressed the opinion that the market crash in May has greatly weakened institutional demand, which is why the price of BTC cannot recover to its former levels.
“There is no doubt that the recent boom-and-bust dynamics is an obstacle to institutional acceptance of the cryptocurrency markets and, in particular, bitcoin and Ethereum,” the expert explains. - The rise in volatility, especially in relation to gold, presents a barrier for large investors. It makes digital gold less attractive than traditional gold. "

- Footage on the 16th film from the black-and-white film "Alien Autopsy", which allegedly depicts the corpse of an alien on the operating table, will be sold at the Rarible online auction. The starting price of the lot is 450 WETH (over $1,215,000 at the time of writing).
The 17-minute film focuses on the Roswell Incident, an alleged UFO crash near the American city of Roswell in New Mexico in July 1947. Conspiracy theorists believe that the US government then captured an alien on board the UFO.
The author of the film, a London entrepreneur Ray Santilli, stated that the film used real footage of an alien autopsy, which was allegedly provided to him by a retired military operator on terms of anonymity. However, there are also those who consider this film to be fake.
For reference: the WETH cryptocurrency is an Ethereum conversion and cannot be mined. The WETH rate is pegged to the ETH rate at a 1 to 1 ratio.  

- PayPal is going to allow its clients to withdraw cryptocurrencies to external wallets. “The stored coins cannot be transferred to other users or withdrawn from PayPal accounts at the moment, but we are working to ensure that the corresponding option appears. The demand for cryptocurrency transactions has shown that the industry has a huge number of adherents who are ready to settle in digital assets or just buy them. Because of this, the appropriate option has become a necessity,” PayPal representatives say.

- The creator of the Cardano cryptocurrency and former Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson has named central banks slow, inefficient and thoroughly corrupt. In his opinion, traditional finance is a "frustration industry" and cryptocurrencies are the "antidote" to "this broken financial network."
The specialist emphasized that the growth of the world's population made the markets large and unmanageable, and innovations too difficult to implement. In his opinion, it is only cryptocurrencies that can cope with these problems.

- Max Kaiser, aTV presenter and founder of Heisenberg Capital, expects the bitcoin price to rise 500% in the second half of 2021 to reach $220,000. "This is an aggressive price target, which is explained by the serious problems of the US dollar," the TV host said. In his opinion, the policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and the inflation of the US dollar stimulate the strengthening of the first cryptocurrency.
Kaiser also stressed that the price of bitcoin is not as important as the hash rate and other fundamental metrics of the network. According to him, the price only reflects the state of the dollar: when the dollar weakens, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rises, and vice versa. “I don't look at the price, I watch the hash rate. And this indicator has been in a very predictable and stable bull market for the last 10 years,” he explains.

- While searching for a marijuana farm, police in the West Midlands County in Western England, discovered another farm, for mining cryptocurrencies, which had stolen electricity "worth thousands of pounds."
With the help of a drone, law enforcement officers noticed increased thermal activity near the local industrial zone. The police also found out that the territory is regularly visited by "suspicious persons". Assuming they had found a marijuana plantation, they received a search warrant, but instead of drugs, they found about a hundred computers. “This is not at all what we expected,” Police Sergeant Jennifer Griffin admitted.

- The founder of the Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao, believes that no amount of regulatory action can destroy bitcoin and the blockchain. "You can't destroy bitcoin anyway, because it's in the heads of 500 million people," he said.
According to Zhao, the fight against cryptocurrencies is reminiscent of the situation when the trading giant Amazon went online, and many were reluctant to embrace its business model. Cryptocurrencies were not created to "kill" traditional finance and government currencies. This is just a new tool for expanding financial freedom around the world. Therefore, it is much more effective to work out a clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, rather than trying to "erase" them.
This statement, according to a number of observers, is due to the fact that regulators began to pay increased attention to Binance.

- Despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future. Analysts of the American company Fundstrat have come to this conclusion, having studied the chart of the first cryptocurrency. In their opinion, the “inverted head and shoulders” pattern may indicate a further recovery in quotes.
Earlier, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said that the rate of the first cryptocurrency could exceed $100,000 this year, and of Ethereum - $10,000.

- The team of analytical company Glassnode has noted that the number of Ethereum wallets containing 0.01 ETH or more reached a record level of 15.71 million addresses. Such a large number is indicative of two things. First, the Ethereum ecosystem is growing and more users are joining the network to operate on various DeFi platforms or using ETH to pay in transactions with ERC-20 tokens. Second, it could mean that more retail investors are hoarding Ethereum on a long-term basis. They have blocked more than $12 billion tokens in the Ethereum 2.0 deposit contract so far. 
Experts note that, despite the current price correction, the share of Ethereum in the total crypto market capitalization continues to increase, confidently moving towards 18%.

- A well-known cryptanalyst known as PlanB, known for applying the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model to bitcoin, told his 517,300 subscribers that he considers his investment in BTC as a call option. "I will either bring it to zero or to $1 million," - he defined his position, noting that the upside potential of bitcoin exceeds the risks of a move in the opposite direction.
PlanB did not ignore the sale of bitcoins last month. “So what happened in May? Weak hands sold about 1 million BTC at between $30,000 and $ 35,000, which they bought in April at between $55,000 and $60,000, and suffered a staggering loss of tens of billions of dollars. The good news is that this 1 million bitcoin is in strong hands right now." 

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 07 - 11, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. When giving their forecast for the previous week, 50% of analysts expected the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.2000 area, 30% voted for the continuation of the sideways trend in the channel, 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% supported the breakdown of the upper boundary of this channel.
The pair did go up at the beginning of the week, and it almost came close to the upper border of the channel on Tuesday June 01, reaching the height of 1.2255. The bulls got strength by the positive data on the Eurozone consumer market. However, this was not enough to continue the momentum, and the ISM PMI in the US manufacturing sector, which also turned out to be "green", turned the pair down. The dollar strengthened even more on Thursday June 03 after the release of strong statistics on the US labor market. The number of applications for unemployment benefits updated the post-pandemic low for the fifth time in a row, falling to 385 thousand. And the employment rate in the private sector from ADP increased by 978 thousand, which is the highest level in almost a year. As a result, the DXY dollar index jumped 0.66%, adding 60 points and returning to the levels of the middle of last month, while the EUR/USD pair, having broken through the lower border of the channel, dropped to 1.2103.
The market froze in anticipation of data on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP), which is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month. But it was this data that disappointed those who were expecting further strengthening of the dollar: the figure was 599K instead of the expected 650K. As a result, the pair returned to the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 almost immediately and completed the five-day period at 1.2165;

-GBP/USD. A manager of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, announced on Thursday, May 27 that rates could rise in the first half of 2022. This statement made the bulls hope that the pound will soon renew its 36-month high at 1.4240. But the bears decided that it was too early to rejoice, the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and a lot can happen during this time. And then, strong data on the US labor market came out on June 03, and disappointing data on June 04.
In general, just like EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair swayed on the waves of multidirectional news and finished within the three-week sideways corridor 1.4075-1.4220, placing the final chord in the 1.4165 zone;

- USD/JPY. We called the technical analysis readings for this pair Greenpeace In the previous forecast - green dominated there so powerfully. 60% of the experts supported the bullish sentiment then and made no mistake. Along with the growth of the DXY dollar index and the yield of US Treasuries, the pair renewed the high of the last two months at 110.20 by Thursday June 03 and climbed to a high of 110.32. But then, due to the NFP data, it came under strong bearish pressure and ended the week trading session at 109.50;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin skyrocketed to its highest point of $64,595 per BTC On April 14.  On that day, June futures showed an even higher price, $66,450. And then came May. Thanks to the efforts of Elon Musk and Chinese regulators, bitcoin has lost half of its value, and spent the last two and a half weeks on consolidation in the area of $36,000-37,000.
Usually, such a consolidation is followed by an impressive leap forward. But in which direction: to the north or to the south? Everything that is happening suggests that it makes no sense to make forecasts based on technical analysis here. Even guessing by stars or coffee grounds can lead to more accurate results. The market is ruled by COVID-19, regulators and influencers.
Modern corporate culture, among other things, involves following environmental trends. This is exactly what one of the main influencers, the aforementioned Elon Musk, does. He, by the way, continues to influence investors with his tweets. So last week, he burst into vague speculations about whether Tesla could permanently abandon bitcoin, and thereby put an end to the hopes of bulls to break through the $40,000 level.
It's complicated with regulators, too. We talked in detail in previous reviews about the position of Beijing, which decisively indicated cryptocurrencies to leave. And Pascal Blanc, a top manager at Amundi, one of the largest asset management companies, supported the move, saying that cryptocurrencies are "farce" and "bubbles" and that governments and regulators will eventually "stop this music."
However, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB do not particularly interfere in the game of the "crypto orchestra", do not impose bans and sanctions on market participants, but are limited to observing what is happening. Their calmness serves as an example for other, less significant regulators, who also believe that the there is no sufficient accumulated experience yet to make sudden movements. For example, Norwegian Finance Minister Jan Thor Sanner said that people should have a choice of whether to invest their funds in bitcoins or other assets. Of course, provided that this process is properly regulated.
Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the Binance exchange, agrees with the Norwegian minister. He thinks it is much more effective to work out a clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, rather than trying to "erase" them. No amount of regulatory action will be able to destroy bitcoin and blockchain, Changpeng Zhao said. "You can't destroy bitcoin anyway, because it's in the heads of 500 million people,".
Indeed, the crypto market has become more global, not only small traders and investors are involved in it now, but the world's largest banks, investment funds and payment systems. And bitcoin itself was created in order to bypass various prohibitions and barriers. So, for example, Chinese traders and miners can transfer their activity to another jurisdiction. And it remains to be seen whether China itself will benefit from this.
In general, we will wait and see. In the meantime, as already mentioned, the main cryptocurrency is consolidating in the $36,000-37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index calmed down as well, rising by only 6 points in a week, from 21 to 27. But the Dominance Index went down smoothly again, dropping from 43.11% to 41.7% of the total crypto market capitalization, which was $1.663 trillion as of the evening of June 04.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The EUR/USD pair has been holding in the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 For the third week in a row and attempts to break it to either side do not succeed. Therefore, if we sum up the readings of technical indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, we get a neutral gray color.
As for macroeconomic factors, the data indicate a continuing recovery in the US labor market. And the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of this country (NFP) in May, although less than expected, is still twice higher than in April.
60% of experts believe that strong data on the labor market may persuade the Fed to reduce earlier bond buybacks and curtail QE programs. And this will lead to an increase in the yield of long-term Treasury bonds and strengthen the position of the USD. Warm summer weather, a large number of people vaccinated against COID-19, as well as the lifting of quarantine restrictions are cited as additional arguments.
However, Europe is not standing still either, as the remaining 40% of analysts say, so the strengthening of the dollar - if it happens, of course - may be temporary. According to these experts, the current improvement in the situation on the US labor market fits well into the Fed's plan and is not at all a reason for tightening economic policy and raising interest rates. Without this, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
The nearest target of the bears is the zone 1.1985-1.2000, the support levels on the way to it are 1.2135, 1.2100 and 1.2060. The bulls are still aiming to break the upper border of the 1.2265 channel and the pair to rise to this year's high of 1.2350.
As for the events of the coming week, the following should be noted: the release of data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday June 08, and the decision of the European Central Bank on the interest rate (forecast - unchanged, at 0%) the next day, June 10, as well as the comments of the ECB on monetary policy. Also, the leaders of the G7 countries will meet on Friday 11 June and Saturday 12 June. The event, of course, is important, however, is not worth waiting for an instant reaction to it;   

- GBP/USD. The three-week sideways trend also affected the forecast of experts on the British currency: 35% of them vote for the pair's movement to the north, 35% look to the south, and 30% point to the east. However, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the dollar strengthening grows to 55%.  
Graphical analysis draws the following picture until the end of June: first, the pair declines to support 1.4000, then a local low follows in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone and the pair returns to the 1.4200-1.4220 zone. Oscillators give multidirectional signals, while trend indicators are mostly colored green. These are 85% on H4, 95% on D1;

- USD/JPY. Technical indicators give chaotic readings for this pair. Only in trend indicators on D1 do greens still have a clear 75% advantage.
Graphical analysis forecasts are also controversial. It expects first a decline to the level of 109.00, and then a fall to the May lows in the region of 108.35 on H4. On D1, the forecast is the opposite: renewal of the March 31 high, 110.95. Resistances along the way are 109.70, 110.00 and 110.30.
The green summer season continues among analysts. The overwhelming majority (75%) expect the pair to grow, the remaining 25% look down.
Perhaps the yen's positions will be supported by the GDP data for the first quarter of 2021, which will be published by the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers on Tuesday, June 08. According to forecasts, the fall in GDP may slow down from minus 1.3% to minus 1.2%, which will indicate the possibility of the country's economy coming out of the recession;

- cryptocurrencies. Let us start with a pessimistic view of the future. According to Yahoo Finance, the strategist of the JPMorgan financial holding Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou did not rule out a further decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency. We stated previously, he says, that the failure of bitcoin to break the $60,000 barrier will automatically lead to bearish momentum and further exits. According to the expert, the market crash in May has greatly weakened institutional demand, which is why the price of BTC cannot recover to its former levels. In the medium-term perspective, Panigirtzoglou is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000. 
“There is no doubt that the recent boom-and-bust dynamics is a barrier to institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies,” explains the JPMorgan strategist. "The rise in volatility, especially in relation to gold, presents a barrier for large investors, and makes digital gold less attractive than traditional gold."
Unlike Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, TV host and founder of Heisenberg Capital, Max Kaiser, is optimistic and expects the bitcoin price to hit $220,000 in the second half of 2021. "This is an aggressive price target, which is explained by the serious problems of the US dollar," the TV host said.
Kaiser also stressed that the price of bitcoin is not as important as the hash rate and other fundamental metrics of the network. According to him, the price only reflects the state of the dollar: when the dollar weakens, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rises, and vice versa. “I don't look at the price, I watch the hash rate. And this indicator has been in a very predictable and stable bull market for the last 10 years,” he explains.
The growth of the BTC/USD pair is also predicted by analysts of the American company Fundstrat. They came to this conclusion after studying the patterns on the chart of the first cryptocurrency rate. According to them, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future. At the same time, it should be recalled that the co-founder of Fundstrat Tom Lee said earlier that the BTC rate could exceed the level of $100,000 this year, and the ethereum rate - $10,000.
But the cryptanalyst PlanB, known for applying the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model to bitcoin, turns out to be a fatalist. He informed his 517,300 followers that he considers his BTC investment as a call option. "I will either bring it to zero or to $1 million," - he defined his position, noting that the upside potential of bitcoin exceeds the risks of a move in the opposite direction.
PlanB did not ignore the sale of bitcoins last month. “So, what happened in May? Weak hands sold about 1 million BTC at $30,000-35,000, which they bought in April at $ 55,000-60,000, and suffered a staggering loss of tens of billions of dollars. Good news: these 1 million bitcoins are now in strong hands,” PlanB summed up their assessment of the situation.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

May Results: NordFX Trader Earns Over $50,000 on Bitcoin Collapse

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in May 2021. The total income of the three most efficient of them exceeded 175 thousand USD.

The undisputed leader at the end of the month was a trader from China, account No.1546xxx, whose profit amounted to USD 81,648. This solid result was achieved on transactions with the British pound (GBP/USD), gold (XAU/USD) and euro (EUR/USD).

The second step of the podium with a result of 53,207 USD was taken by a representative of Vietnam, account No.1416xxx, who showed how to make money during market crashes. Their profit was mainly obtained from transactions with bitcoin (BTC/USD), the quotes of which fell by about 40% over the month.

The third place is a trader from Indonesia, account No.1506xxx, who earned 41,799 USD in May on gold transactions (XAU/USD).       

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading, one can mark the KennyFXPRO signal -The Compass. It has shown an increase of 108% since November 2020. At first glance, this is not such an impressive result (although it is ten times higher than the interest on bank deposits). But combined with a moderate maximum drawdown of 22%, this signal becomes quite attractive for subscribers who have invested over 45,000 USD in it.
- in the PAMM service, the same trader, KennyFXPRO, also shows a good result, which may be interesting for investors who prefer moderate earnings with moderate risks. This manager has seen a 24% capital gain since the end of January with a maximum drawdown of 16%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission of the month amounting to 6,568 USD was credited to a partner from India, account 1527xxx;
- the second place is a partner from China, account No. 1522xxx, who received 4,146 USD;
- and another Indian partner closes the top three, account No.1229xxx, with earnings of 3.975 USD.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Tesla and SpaceX owner Elon Musk received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It says that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, their dreams collapsed due to Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention.
The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: “You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".

- Goldman Sachs bank experts have downgraded the "rating" of bitcoin from "gold" to "copper". According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.

- The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. “Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,” Winklevoss said, “and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
“We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,” the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: “Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars. "

- The MIT students who participated in the bitcoin research spent the cryptocurrency they had been given on textbooks and food. As Bloomberg calculated, they missed ... 13,000% of their profits.
In 2014, Bitcoin Core developer Jeremy Rubin and Nascent co-founder Dan Elitzer, while students at the university, launched the MIT Bitcoin Project. Each project participant received $100 in the first cryptocurrency (0.3 BTC at the exchange rate at that time) in order to create an ecosystem of digital currencies on campus.
More than 3,100 students joined the study. Every tenth student got rid of cryptocurrency in the first two weeks, and by mid-2017, every fourth student had converted it to fiat and used it for purchases and other expenses. The participants in the experiment spent digital gold mainly in the campus bookstore. They also bought beer and ordered food.
The rest kept the coins in their wallets, expecting further growth in their value. One of the project participants said that she wanted to spend bitcoins on a T-shirt that cost $35, but abandoned her idea, and did the right thing: the price of these coins exceeds $4,000 now.

- Billionaire Mark Lasry, founder of Avenue Capital Management, said bitcoin's explosive growth in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. He also expressed regret that he had not invested enough in the first cryptocurrency.
Commenting on his previous forecast regarding the rise in the price of the coin to $40,000, the investor noted that the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it. “If a market is created, it does not disappear anywhere. For this reason, I became interested in bitcoin. I thought that with the arrival of institutional investors, the price would start to rise,” he added.
At the same time, Lasry stressed that any movement of digital gold can be explained: “To be honest, I do not know where bitcoin is going. I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."

- Analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028. Accredited investors will become buyers of securities. The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth over $3.37 billion so far.

- Against the background of the market correction, bitcoin whales have increased their positions, and large Ethereum wallets continue to hold assets. Analysts of Santiment came to such conclusions.
According to the company, the number of bitcoin addresses with balances from 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC has been growing steadily for two and a half weeks. “It seems that whales are buying confidently on the fall,” the experts concluded.
As for the addresses holding 1,000-100,000 ETH, their number practically does not change during the period when the asset fluctuates in the range of $2,000- $2,500. “This group of investors is still holding on to the huge number of tokens that they have been accumulating at a rapid pace since last October,” the experts note.
The NVT indicator (a tool for identifying bubbles in the cryptocurrency market) indicates the continued bearish sentiment for the first cryptocurrency. The NVT confirms investor bearish sentiment for Ethereum as well, for the first time since April 2020.

- The American company Progressive Care began accepting bitcoin as payment for rapid tests for COVID-19. The service is available in PharmcoRx pharmacies, and one can pay for tests through a QR code.
The company stressed that they believe in the future of the blockchain and want to provide an opportunity for testing for coronavirus "to those who have an alternative view of payment systems." 

- The Kalashnikov Concern, which produces the well-known AK-47 machine, would like to abandon the international payment system SWIFT and switch to using digital currencies. Such an unexpected statement was made by a rock singer, former Deputy Minister of Transport of Russia, and now the owner of the concern, Alan Lushnikov. “We really need it,” he said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)
According to him, this alternative system is not tied to SWIFT and is not controlled by banks. For this reason, the company is less interested in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 14 - 18, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The key day last week was Thursday, June 10. There were two important events on the day: the European Central Bank meeting and the release of US consumer market data. Now let's talk about everything in order.
The ECB raised its forecasts for Eurozone GDP from 4.0% to 4.6% for 2021 and from 4.1% to 4.7% for 2022. Inflation is expected to rise by 1.9% this year and 1.5% next year (the previous forecast was 1.5% and 1.2% respectively). At the same time, the pace of economic recovery has not particularly impressed Ms. Lagarde, especially as it is lagging seriously behind the US. The ECB chief also considers the jump in inflation a temporary phenomenon. While prices may continue to rise in 2021 Q3 and Q4, they should go down as the “temporary factors disappear.” So, the overall inflation rate in the Eurozone, she believes, will remain below target “throughout the forecast horizon.” 
As a result, the result of the ECB meeting was... no result. Despite the debate, the Bank's Governing Board has not made any decisions regarding the winding down of QE, leaving the current stimulus measures in place. The interest rate on the euro was also unchanged, at 0%. But it was because of such passivity that Ms. Lagarde succeeded in achieving what she wanted: keeping the euro from rising. 
And now about the second event on Thursday - the publication of data on the US consumer market (CPI). It was just that, according to the reaction of the market, it resembled the moment when the regulator announced new interest rates. The CPI figures turned out to be much higher than forecasted, showing the fastest rise in consumer prices in the United States in more than 12 years.
Such a rise in inflation could scare investors, however, exactly the opposite happened: the S&P500 index updated another high, reaching 4250 (against 4244 exactly a month ago), and the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to a 3-month low.
As for the EUR/USD pair, this is where the bears won. Their logic was as follows: the ECB postponed the decision to roll back QE in Europe, but in the US, a jump in inflation could push the Fed to take some real steps in this direction. And some goals are likely to be identified at the next meeting of the regulator next Wednesday, June 16. This expectation of tightening monetary policy has driven the dollar higher. Additional strength for the bears was given by the growth of the Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan in the USA, which was published on June 11. As a result, the dollar won back about 100 points from the euro, and the EUR/USD pair finished just below the lower border of the four-week side channel 1.2125-1.2265, at around 1.2108; 

- GBP/USD. The statistics from the USA pushing the pair down was mentioned above. As for the UK's performance, it's not all that simple. Data released on Thursday June 10 supported the pound, showing a sharp rise in the Manufacturing PMI, which indicated a strengthening of industrial production and trade in the UK. However, another package of macro-statistics, published the next day, aroused caution among investors.
The center of the British economic recovery has shifted from manufacturing and the housing market to the service sector. Here, thanks to vaccinations and the easing of quarantine measures, activity has increased and even exceeded forecasts. But the figures were not so rosy in other sectors of the economy.
Construction volumes declined by 2%, while industrial production for April fell 1.3%. When compared to the same period in 2020, it added 27.5% during that time. It would seem that the growth is evident. But, according to a number of experts, there is nothing much to be happy about. If we compare the absolute values, they are 3% lower than the levels of February 2020 and 6.5% below the local peak in March 2019. And this speaks of the stagnation of the sector, which, apparently, was provoked not only by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by Brexit.
These multidirectional statistics resulted in the GBP/USD pair failing to reach beyond the 1.4075-1.4220 side channel, along which it was drifting for the fourth week, and put the last point at 1.4115;

- USD/JPY. Having started the five-day period at 109.50, the pair completed it at 109.70. At the same time, it was below these levels almost all the time, bouncing over and over again from the support in the area of 109.18-109.30. However, thanks to strong statistics from the US, the pair managed to climb to the height of 109.85 at the end of the week. But even taking into account this spurt, the weekly fluctuation range of 45 points looks more than modest; 

- cryptocurrencies. The crypto market is calm. Bitcoin has been consolidating around $36,000-37,000 for the third week in a row. An attempt by the bears on to turn quotes downward June 8 ended in failure: the lowest point they managed to reach was $31.065. Having stayed there for only a few minutes, the BTC/USD pair turned around, climbed to $38.325, and then went back to the consolidation area.
Elon Musk is back in the news of the week, which could somehow influence the market sentiment. The owner of Tesla and SpaceX received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It states that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, and their dreams were shattered by Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention. The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: “You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".
Another newsmaker, analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028.  The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth more than $3.37 billion.. And if you study the history of its crypto assets’ replenishment, it becomes obvious that the company is moving towards averaging its position in the market. And this happens due to borrowed funds.
Averaging is considered a rather risky investment method. For those who don't know, we'll explain in a simple example. Averaging is when you buy 3 BTC: the first one for $5,000, then you buy the second one for $20,000, and the third one for $35,000. The average price of 1 coin in this case will be equal to $20,000 ($ 60,000/3). And if quotes fall below this level, you will be at a loss. This is why some experts believe MicroStrategy has embarked on a "journey on thin ice."
At the time of writing the forecast, the BTC/USD pair is in the $37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as well as the coin itself, demonstrates "consolidation": it was equal to 21 points on May 28, 27 on June 04, and again 21 points on June 11, which corresponds to the average Fear indicator.
Among the 10,332 existing cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, despite its decline in its share in the total crypto market capitalization, still leads by a huge margin. Its dominance index is 44.03% at the moment. The capitalization of the entire digital currency market fell from $1.663 trillion to $1.585 trillion over the week.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, the Governing Council of the ECB has not made any decision regarding the winding down of the quantitative (QE) program. But the Fed can discuss this issue at its meeting on Wednesday, June 16, and, as a result, publish a "road map". If not publish a detailed road map, then at least indicate its certain stages. And if this happens, we can expect a rapid rise in the dollar and a decline in the EUR/USD pair to the level of 1.2000. The next support is 1.1945, then the zone 1.1880-1.1900.
If the Fed gets off with general phrases that the rise in inflation and the current improvement in the US labor market are not at all a reason for tightening economic policy again, then the pair may return to the upper border of the 1.2125-1.2265 channel. The next target for the bulls is the growth of the pair to this year's high of 1.2350.
So, all the market's attention is now focused on this event. And analysts avoid any predictions until it's over. Graphical analysis is in disarray as well. Among the trend indicators, 55% are colored red on D1, and 100% on H4. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Here, 60% of them are looking down on both time frames, 20% have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 20% are signaling that the pair is oversold. 
In addition to the Fed meeting and comments on June 16, other events of the week include the release of statistics on the German consumer market and on retail sales in the United States. Both numbers will be released on Tuesday June 15;

- GBP/USD. The Bank of England now faces a difficult choice of which way to go further: to support economic growth by continuing fiscal stimulus programs, or to start fighting inflation and prices that have already exceeded pre-Covid levels.
If you look at the ECB and the Fed, they have preferred the first option so far, postponing the second one for later. The renewed trend towards the stagnation of the UK manufacturing sector indicates that the Bank of England should follow the example of its colleagues.  Especially since the country's coronavirus curve has moved up sharply again, and there is increasing discussion about moving the full abolition of the quarantine restrictions scheduled for June 21.
If this happens, the pound will be under strong pressure. However, there will be June 16 before June 21, when the Fed meeting will take place - the key event of the week for almost all dollar pairs. As in the case of EUR/USD, expert opinions are now almost impossible to be brought to any common denominator. Graphical analysis also indicates the continuation of the pair's sideways movement in the coming days within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. Oscillators on both timeframes give multidirectional signals, although the red ones have a slight advantage here. The trend indicators on D1 are split evenly: 50% pointing north, 50% pointing south. And it is only among the trend indicators on H4 that there is an overwhelming majority: 85% of them are colored red.
The targets of the bears: 1.4075, 1.4000, then the low in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone. The bulls' targets: 1.4185-1.4225 and 1.4250, having reached which, they will then try to break through the resistance of 1.4300 and refresh the 2018 highs.
Among the important events of the coming week: the release of UK labour market statistics and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Tuesday June 15, as well as data on the country's consumer market on Wednesday June 16;

- USD/JPY. Giving a weekly forecast, the majority of experts (60%) vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. Graphical analysis and 65% of oscillators on H4, as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with them.

The remaining 40% of analysts, along with graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to decline to support at 108.00-108.35. The next strong support is at 107.50.
When switching to the monthly forecast, the picture changes in a mirror-like manner: here it is already 60% that side with the bears. 40% remain on the side of the bulls, with only half of them believing that the pair will be able to rise above 111.00 and renew the March 31 high.
As for the events of the next week, one could note the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the subsequent press conference. However, the likelihood that the bank's monetary policy will undergo changes that could seriously affect market sentiment is close to zero;

- cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs experts have downgraded bitcoin's rating from gold to copper. According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.
The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. “Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,” Winklevoss said, “and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
“We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,” the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: “Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars."
The forecast (or rather, its absence) by another billionaire, the founder of Avenue Capital Management Mark Lasry, seems to be much more mundane. According to him, the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it, and the rapid growth of bitcoin in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. That being said, “to be honest, I don't know where bitcoin is heading,” Larsy admitted. "I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."
And it is difficult to argue with him about this. At least in the current situation, any movement of digital gold can be justified. Suffice it to recall two authoritative predictions:
: of the American company Fundstrat analysts, according to which, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future,
 - and of the JPMorgan financial holding strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000.

***
 And in conclusion, our traditional, albeit irregular, section of crypto life hacks. True, it applies not only to cryptocurrencies, but also to fiat this week. We are talking about the opportunity to top up your budget with a fairly round amount by taking part in the lottery held by the NordFX broker. There are a total of 100 prizes to be won for a total of $100,000. And the first draft will take place in two weeks, on July 1, so you may well have time to become a participant. All the details are available on the NordFX website.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- According to Coingecko, bitcoin is up 12% on the back of another tweet by Elon Musk. Tesla's owner said the company will resume selling electric cars for BTC when at least half of the miners switch to renewable energy.
The tweet was a response to criticism from Magda Wierzycka, the head of Sygnia finance company. She said in the podcast The Money Show the Tesla founder was manipulating the price of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, the billionaire raised the price of digital gold deliberately and eliminated much of his position at highs. Sygnia's CEO emphasized that if Musk's tweets were about any public company, he would have already been targeted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Musk called the words of the head of Sygnia inaccurate and recalled that the electric car manufacturer sold only 10% of its bitcoins to test the liquidity of the market.

- Venture capitalist and billionaire Tim Draper predicted in 2018 the growth of the first cryptocurrency to $250,000 by 2022 and called the blockchain one of the most outstanding inventions in human history. And he has confirmed his forecast now, albeit with some timing prolongation. Bitcoin will hit the $250,000 mark by the end of 2022 or early 2023, according to his latest statement, despite the sharp price fluctuations.
The reasons for the growth, which the billionaire named, are still the same: the limited emission of coins and the growing demand for digital gold. “Give it [bitcoin] about a year and a half and all retailers will use OpenNode,” the investor said. As a reminder, OpenNode is a bitcoin payment processor created by a group of enthusiasts, in the development of which Tim Draper invested $1.25 mln.

- Tunisian Finance Minister Ali Kuli announced the need to change the country's legislation to “decriminalize” ownership of the first cryptocurrency. He said the occasion was reports of the arrest of a 17-year-old for using digital assets.
Local media reported in May that Tunisian law enforcement had allegedly accused the young man of money laundering. The incident sparked outrage in the cryptocurrency community: some of its participants expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of clarity in the regulation of the industry.

- Tudor Investment hedge fund trader and founder Paul Tudor Jones said in an interview with CNBC that he would channel 5% of his capital into bitcoin. He is convinced that the first cryptocurrency contributes to the diversification of the investment portfolio through “embedded mathematics.”
The billionaire currently reserves 5% each for gold, bitcoin, exchange contracts and cash. It will determine the scenario for placing the remaining 80% funds after analyzing the outcome of the June 16 meeting of the US Fed. The investor hinted that he could increase the share of "inflationary" instruments if the monetary authorities ignore the recent surge in consumer prices. In his view, it was of a “very significant” character.
“For me, the first cryptocurrency is just a way to look fundamentally at how I protect my wealth over time. This is a great opportunity for diversification, for preserving capital, the billionaire explained. "If they [the Fed] say, "We are on the trajectory [of a temporary increase in inflation], everything is fine," then I’ll go all-in.” 

- El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele proposed a "bitcoin law" to parliament last week. Cryptocurrency is recognized as legal tender and companies are required to accept BTC as payment, unless they are located in rural areas with no internet access. In addition, bitcoin trading is exempt from capital gains taxes.
And now Bukele has come up with another initiative. He instructed the head of state-owned electricity company LaGeo to develop a plan to mine Bitcoin using volcanic energy. “Very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable energy with zero emissions. We will try to get things done quickly,” the head of state wrote on Twitter.
There are over 20 volcanoes in El Salvador, some of which are active. LaGeo is now using volcanoes to generate geothermal energy. And, for example, Genesis Mining in Iceland uses underground heat to generate electricity. 

- According to the regular Millionaire Survey, 47% of wealthy millennials in the USA buy crypto assets. At the same time, 35% of them hold more than half of their investment portfolio in digital assets.
Millennials have shown greater interest in cryptocurrencies than owners of large fortunes overall. Those were only about 17%. Moreover, only every tenth of them invested more than 10% of their capital in digital assets.

- Banks in Texas (USA) have been authorized to accept and store customers' bitcoins, as well as handle their cryptocurrency transactions. Lending organizations also received the rights from the state authorities to collaborate with startups developing various services for digital assets.
It should be noted that of all American states, Texas was one of the first, as early as 2019, to move on the path to legislate this market. 

- The Netherlands should immediately impose a blanket ban on mining and bitcoin operations, Pieter Hasekamp, director of the Economic Analysis Bureau at the country's Ministry of Economy, said.
The official listed a number of reasons why the authorities need to recognize the first cryptocurrency as illegal. In his view, digital gold has no intrinsic value, and the coin itself does not perform any of the three functions of money: the unit of accounting, the means of payment and the means of accumulation.
Hasekamp mentioned security issues, fraud risks and added that digital assets are used in criminal activities. At the same time, he considers the collapse of the crypto market inevitable.

- According to the New Indian Express, India's hostile stance on bitcoin is changing to a more loyal one. The authorities now intend not to ban but regulate the crypto sphere. India wants to create an alternative asset class that will include digital currencies. The regulatory framework will be created by the Securities and Exchange Council in partnership with the Ministry of Finance.

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https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 21 - 25, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday June 16 was the key event of the week. No particularly significant decisions were made there: the interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25%. The Federal Reserve will also continue to print money and buy back assets in the previous volume of $120 billion. But, as expected, following the meeting, the regulator's roadmap was unveiled, as a result of which the dollar bulls got what they had been waiting for.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues raised the forecast for US GDP for 2021 to 7%, and also recognized the need to discuss the process of curtailing fiscal stimulus programs (QE). The Fed has no intention of turning a blind eye to accelerating inflation to the highest marks since the 1990s. However, according to Powell, the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore it is advisable to maintain soft financial conditions for now. At each subsequent meeting, the regulator will consider reducing QE volumes. And he will set out the level of employment after which incentives can be reduced, at the next meeting on July 28.
Investors also received a signal of intent to raise interest rates earlier than expected. An averaged forecast by Fed executives showed that the rate could be gradually raised to 0.5-0.6 percent by the end of 2023. At the same time, Jerome Powell noted that vaccination has a positive effect on the labor market, and we will soon see strong employment reports. Inflation may also be stronger and more stable than central bank officials had expected. And it will require a quicker response to what is happening.
Such "hawkish" forecasts of the Federal Reserve System instantly revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Investors continued to buy USD despite weak macro statistics, thinking that the indicators will improve as the US economy recovers.
One of the major currencies that suffered last week was the euro. Europe's economy has not kept pace with America's in any way. And according to Philip Laine, the ECB's chief economist, it will be too early even in September for the regulator to begin discussing the programme of winding down QE in the Eurozone.
As a result, starting from a height of 1.2125 on June 16 and flying 280 points, EUR/USD reached the local bottom at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. The finish took place at 1.1865, in the zone where the pair returned after a 10-week absence;

- GBP/USD. If the euro fell against the dollar by 280 points, the pound ceded as much as 340 to the US currency. Positive sentiment about the UK currency is melting like fog over London after the country's prime minister, Boris Johnson, delayed the full opening of the country's businesses by a month. This is due to an increase in cases of the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. And this despite the fact that about 80% of the country's adult population has already been vaccinated with one dose of the vaccine, and 30% have been vaccinated with two doses.
The pound is also under pressure from the increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit. This is particularly true of trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
Against this unjoyful backdrop, another “blow” is being struck on 16 June by the U.S. Federal Reserve management. The result is a fall of the pound to the level of 1.3790, not far from which it ends the trading session;

- USD/JPY. Making a forecast for the past five days, the majority of experts (60%) voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. And, looking at the results of the week, they were right: starting at 109.70, the pair finished at 110.20. 
It is clear that the statements of Jerome Powell and other executives of the US Federal Reserve could not but affect the behavior of the USD/JPY pair: it reached 110.80 at the high. In addition to the dollar's strengthening, weak macroeconomic statisticians from Japan have added pressure on the yen. Thus, the growth of orders for engineering products in April slowed down from + 3.7% to + 0.6%, against the forecast of 2.7%. Of course, the rate grew by 6.5% in annual terms, but still turned out to be lower than the expected 8%.
Despite this, amid the subsidence of the remaining major currencies, the Japanese currency has shown maximum resilience against the dollar. At the time when the euro, pound and other currencies continued their decline, it was, on the contrary, able to win back about 60% of the losses. The reason for this, according to a number of analysts, lies in the lower risk appetite of the market and increased investor appetite for safer assets;    

- cryptocurrencies. It has long been clear that news has a fairly strong impact on cryptocurrency rates. However, much more powerful fluctuations in this market are caused by large investments. There were none of those last week. On the contrary, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization even decreased slightly, from $1.585 trillion to $1.560 trillion. So there remains news, whose source is influencers and regulators.
In terms of the former, Elon Musk was once again there with his tweets. This time, the owner of Tesla said that the company will resume selling electric cars for BTC when at least half of the miners switch to renewable energy. Bitcoin is up 12% amid this tweet, according to CoinGecko. 
It is worth noting that the tweet was a response to criticism from the head of the financial company Sygnia Magda Wierzycki. She said in the podcast The Money Show the Tesla founder was manipulating the price of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, the billionaire raised the price of digital gold deliberately and eliminated much of his position at highs. Sygnia's CEO emphasized that if Musk's tweets were about any public company, he would have already been targeted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Now about the regulators, news from which comes from all over the planet. Thus, Tunisian Finance Minister Ali Kuli announced the need to change the country's legislation to “decriminalize” ownership of the first cryptocurrency. The government of India has also changed its anger to the mercy for bitcoin. Now, as in Tunisia, it intends not to ban but regulate the crypto sphere. Banks in Texas (USA) have been authorized to accept and store customers' bitcoins, as well as handle their cryptocurrency transactions. It should be noted that of all American states, Texas was one of the first, as early as 2019, to move on the path to legislate this market. 
Similar events are taking place in El Salvador. The president of this country, Nayib Bukele, has proposed a "bitcoin law" for parliamentary consideration. Under the bill, cryptocurrency is recognized as legal tender and companies are required to accept BTC as payment. In addition, bitcoin trading is exempt from capital gains taxes.
Some important European officials, however, have fallen out of favor with digital assets. Thus, Peter Hasekamp, director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Dutch Ministry of Economy, said that a complete ban on mining and bitcoin transactions should be immediately imposed. In his opinion, digital gold has no intrinsic value, it is used in a criminal environment, and the collapse of the crypto market is inevitable.
But, judging by the emerging trend, Mr. Hasekamp will remain in the minority. Most regulators will try to take control of digital assets. As the great German chancellor Otto von Bismarck liked to repeat back in the 19th century, "If you cannot defeat the enemy, lead it."
Spurred on by the news and the bulls' desire to take revenge, the BTC/USD pair rallied earlier in the week, reaching $41,260 on Tuesday June 15. However, the sharp strengthening of the dollar after the US Federal Reserve meeting reversed the uptrend, bringing the pair back below the $36,000 level at the end of the working week.
The Bitcoin dominance index added slightly, rising from 44.03% to 45.33%. The same thing happened with Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which went up from 21 to 25 points. Note that since the BTC/USD pair went sideways at the end of May, its values have never gone beyond the 20-40-point range.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Does the EUR/USD fall mean a trend reversal? Or will everything be back to normal soon and the dollar will continue to retreat? (Recall that at the turn of 2016-17, these two currencies almost reached parity. Then 1 euro was only $1.034, and after only a year the European currency was worth $1.2565).
In the wake of the Fed's comments, some banks began to abandon their bullish forecasts for the euro. Others took a break. Still others, such as Societe Generale, expect the pair to return to 1.2000. Opinions among experts are almost equally divided: 55% of them vote for a further fall, and 45%, supported by graphical analysis on H4, support its growth. According to the latter, it is too early to talk about a trend reversal, additional confirmation is needed, and the collapse that occurred is the result of speculation on the Fed's statements, which led to panic closing of long positions.
Technical analysis readings look like this: 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. But at the same time, 35% of oscillators on both time frames are already in the oversold zone, which may indicate an approaching correction to the north.
The pair ended the previous week in a strong support-resistance zone, which it has been storming from time to time since 2017. The nearest target of the bears is the low of March 31, 2021, 1.1700, the next one - April 04, 2020 low, 1.1600. Bulls will try to regain their lost positions. The first serious resistance is in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone, the next one is 100 pips higher. The goal is to refresh the May high of 1.2265. However, it will obviously take more than one week to reach it. And here it should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the advantage goes to the bulls, the number of which increases from 45% to 60%.
From the strategically important events of the coming week, it is worth highlighting the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on Monday June 21 and Wednesday June 23, the meetings of the European Council on June 24-25, as well as the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell in Congress on June 22. In addition, Germany's Markit business activity will be released on June 23, followed by capital and durable orders and annual US GDP data the following day;

- GBP/USD. On Thursday, June 24, a meeting of the Bank of England is due. In the run-up to this event, experts continue to analyze incoming economic data in an attempt to forecast possible moves by the regulator.
As mentioned in the first part of the review, the negative factors include the risk of labor shortages arising from Brexit, the controversy in Northern Ireland and the problems associated with the new strain of coronavirus.
Against the backdrop of generally encouraging macro statistics, retail sales in the UK have unexpectedly dropped, especially food. This makes one think that the growth of the country's GDP in May and in the II quarter of 2021. will not be as strong as predicted.
The report released last Wednesday showed that overall inflation in the country is rising, and the CPI's annual rate rose by 2.1%, surpassing the 2% target for the first time in two years.
Adding to this the positive UK labour market data released on June 15, the Bank of England can be expected to start discussing moves to wind down programmes quantitative easing (QE) in the foreseeable future. As for the regulator's specific momentary steps, it is very likely that, like its counterparts in Europe and the United States, it will not move sharply and leave the parameters of its credit - monetary policy without change. Although, again, the Bank of England's management does not rule out hawkish statements similar to those of US Federal Reserve management. And they might, just as well, push the British currency back up.
55% of analysts expect the pound to rise, supported by graphical analysis on D1. Moreover, with the transition to forecasts for July-August, their number increases to 70%. The readings of the technical indicators are very similar to their readings for the EUR/USD pair: all 100% on both time frames are facing south. True, there are 25% oscillators in the oversold area here, not 35%. The nearest strong support is located in the 1.3670-1.3700 zone, followed by 1.3600. Resistances - 1.3920, 1.4000, 1.4150 and 1.4250;

- USD/JPY. Making a forecast for the near future, the majority of experts (65%) vote for further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair above the 111.00 horizon. They are supported by 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. Graphical analysis on H4 is also in agreement with this forecast, however, it does not exclude that the pair will make a spurt to the north, relying on support at 109.70-109.80.
The remaining 35% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that this support will not become a serious obstacle to the strengthening of the yen, and the pair USD/JPY will be able to fall to the area of 108.00-108.55;

- cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has not gone out of the fear zone for almost a month. Frightened by the collapse of quotes in April-May, many, especially retail, investors and traders take profits at the slightest sign of danger, which prevents the BTC/USD pair from gaining a foothold above the psychologically important level of $40,000.
And there's also the US Fed, fueling interest in the dollar and reversing stock indices. Suffice to compare the S&P500 and BTC charts to see their correlation, which, according to a number of experts, will now only grow stronger.
In the event of an active sale of shares, most likely, bitcoin will not feel good either, which is an even more risky asset for institutional investors. (Not to mention altcoins).
Yes, hedge funds understand not only the risks, but also the benefits of investing in digital assets. And, according to the Financial Times, they intend to "substantially" increase their shares in cryptocurrencies by 2026. But, first of all, 2026 will not come soon. And secondly, this "substantially" is not so "substantial". According to a survey of 100 hedge funds conducted by Intertrust, on average, they intend to allocate up to 7.2% of their investment portfolios to cryptocurrencies, which will amount to about $312 billion, that is, about 20% of the current volume of the crypto market. Agree that this kind of growth over 5-6 years looks modest enough.
Earlier, Tudor Investment hedge fund founder Paul Tudor Jones said in an interview with CNBC that hereserves 5% of his capital each for gold, bitcoin, exchange contracts and cash. The billionaire was going to determine the scenario for placing the remaining 80% funds after analyzing the outcome of the June 16 meeting of the US Fed. The investor hinted that he could increase the share of "inflationary" instruments if the monetary authorities ignore the recent "very significant" jump in consumer prices. The meeting has passed and, perhaps, we will soon know the final content of the Tudor Investment portfolio.
The above leads to the conclusion that, despite caution in approaches, institutional investors continue to believe in the prospects of the crypto market. As another billionaire, Avenue Capital Management founder Mark Lasry, observed, the cryptocurrency market has already formed and is not threatened by anything. “If a market is created, it does not disappear anywhere,” the financier believes.
It is also encouraging that hodlers holding bitcoins for more than six months have, for the first time since October 2020, started buying more than selling. And whales (wallets from 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC) have purchased about 90,000 coins in the last month for about $3.4 billion. 
Such optimists include venture investor and billionaire Tim Draper. Back in 2018, he predicted the growth of the first cryptocurrency to $250,000 by 2022. And he has confirmed his forecast now, albeit with some timing prolongation. Bitcoin will hit the $250,000 mark by the end of 2022 or early 2023, according to his latest statement, despite the sharp price fluctuations. The reasons for the growth, which the billionaire named, are still the same: the limited emission of coins and the growing demand for digital gold as protection from inflation.
And at the end of the review, our traditional heading of crypto life hacks. This time, the President of Salvador Nayyib Bukele is its hero, who has recently come up with another initiative. He instructed the head of state-owned electricity company LaGeo to develop a plan to mine bitcoin with "very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable, zero emissions" energy... of more than 20 volcanoes in the country. So, if you happen to have an active volcano in your possession, you may well follow the example of the head of El Salvador. Elon Musk will be pleased.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/ 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Sotheby's auction house, founded in 1744, will auction a rare diamond in Hong Kong. The lot has been estimated at $10-$15 million. The bets are planned to be accepted in the traditional currency, bitcoins or Ethereum. Bidding will start on July 9. Before that, the 101.38-carat pear-shaped diamond will be exhibited at Sotheby's Gallery in Hong Kong.
“This is truly a symbolic moment,” the auction house said in a statement. “The most ancient and symbolic value denominator can be purchased for the first time with the latest universal currency of humanity.”

- According to Reuters, China's authorities have once again caused panic in the cryptocurrency market. The People's Bank of China has reportedly urged banks to immediately close payment gateways for customers who trade in digital assets. The crypto market reacted immediately to this news with a drop to $1.164 trillion. Thus, in just seven days, from June 15 to 22, the market has shrunk by more than 33%.
Along with the fall of the crypto market, the hash rate of the bitcoin network also falls. At the time of writing, it has shrunk to 91 exahash per sec. Note that the last time the network recorded such values was back in November 2020. However, according to a number of experts, this reduction in the hash rate may be due to the relocation of miners from China to other countries.

- Amid the Chinese government's crackdown on the crypto industry, a logistics company in Guangzhou announced it was transporting a large batch of bitcoin mining equipment to the United States. According to CNBC, the cargo weighing 3,000 kg will be delivered to Maryland by air. 
Earlier, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez talked about plans to attract Chinese miners to the city, giving them access to nuclear energy. He stressed that he had not received specific proposals, but he was sure that cheap electricity would be of interest to industry representatives.

- Michael Burry, an investor and founder of hedge fund Scion Capital, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, warned subscribers about the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. However, then this tweet was deleted. "All the hype and speculation is just attracting retail traders before the mother of all the crashes. Parabolic [uptrends] will not pass. [...] History has not changed,” Burry wrote.
The investor also noted that the problem of the digital asset market lies in too much leverage. “If you don’t know how much leverage is in cryptocurrencies, you don’t know anything about cryptocurrencies,” he stressed.
Burry had earlier warned that the market had inflated "the biggest bubble in history." In his post, he used the hashtag FlyingPigs360, which, according to Business Insider, may be a reference to the adage about investment: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered." 

- Bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki has also predicted the collapse of the crypto market. “The biggest bubble in world history is getting bigger. The biggest crash in world history is approaching. Buy more gold and silver. Expect bitcoin to drop to $24,000,” he wrote.
Recall that in 2020, Kiyosaki advised buying the first cryptocurrency until its price exceeded $20,000 and predicted the growth of the asset to $50,000.

- Business intelligence and software provider MicroStrategy has done it again: it has bought over 13,000 bitcoins. Michael Saylor's firm is now the largest corporate investor in digital assets. It owns 105,085 BTC, which is 0.5% of all bitcoins that ever existed and 0.56% of all tokens currently in circulation.
The company made the purchase after it raised $500 million through the placement of high-priority securities. As Saylor wrote on Twitter, 13,005 coins were bought for just under $500 million at an average price of $37,617. In total, the businessman has invested over $2.7 billion in bitcoins, and the average purchase price was $26,080, which allows the company to remain in the black for now.
Note that on the back of the latest drop in the crypto market, MicroStrategy shares are down 7.8%.

- Popular analyst PlanB has described a potentially bearish scenario for bitcoin this year. As usual, he relies on a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model. PlanB emphasizes that the current price pattern is consistent with a bearish scenario, however he is confident that bitcoin will hit its all-time high by October. And the price will reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
“Bitcoin fell below $34,000 due to Elon Musk's tweet about the unsustainability of bitcoin, as well as due to the panic caused by the Chinese repression against miners,” he tweeted. “However, there are more fundamental reasons for the June decline. Perhaps they will spread to July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on on-chain analysis): August> $47,000, September> $43,000, October> $63,000, November> $98,000, December> $135,000." The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in BTC to $450,000.

- Russian billionaire co-owner of the aluminum giant En+ Group Oleg Deripaska accused the Bank of Russia of tight regulation of digital assets. In his opinion, the central bank discourages citizens from getting involved in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. He suggested that the country should add the main cryptocurrency as a means of payment.
In addition, the oligarch pointed to the need for Russia to effectively conclude business deals with the rest of the world and called on the central bank to adopt "a real financial instrument that ensures independence in foreign trade settlements." “Even poor El Salvador realized the need for digital currencies and took the simple path of accepting bitcoin as a means of payment,” Deripaska said.

- Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money show Jim Cramer sold most of his bitcoins following news of China's mining restrictions. Cramer said there were structural problems in digital gold and predicted a further decline in its price. "When China pursues something, they tend to bring the matter to an end. This is not a democracy. This is a dictatorship. I think they see bitcoin as a direct threat to the regime because of what it is - the system is beyond their control.”
Cramer also said that a decrease in the rate of mined coins could have a positive effect on the rate of the first cryptocurrency, but this did not happen. “When mining is limited, bitcoin obviously has to go up, unless holders are going out all over the place,” he explained.
The Mad Money presenter added that the drop in Bitcoin to $30,000 could be an entry point for new investors. However, the presenter himself does not intend to buy cryptocurrency.

- The founder of the Point72 Asset Management Fund Steve Cohen, unlike Jim Cramer, on the contrary, reformatted completely to cryptocurrency. Cohen, whose net worth is estimated at $14 billion, said that he does not care about the current price of bitcoin, as he is still an early investor:
“Now I definitely won't miss anything. I missed the first part, but I still feel that I got involved quite early,” says the billionaire.

- IOHK CEO, Cardano founder and Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson has no doubts that ETH will beat BTC. 
“The problem with bitcoin is that it's too slow - it's like programming for mainframes of the past, compared to building applications now. The only reason bitcoin still exists is because there is a huge amount of money invested in its support. " “Bitcoin is our worst enemy. It has a huge network, a well-known name and the support of regulators. But you cannot change its system, even if you fix the most problematic places, ” - said Hoskinson. He also commented on the bitcoin community, calling it "too ossified" and reluctant to innovate.

- Tesla founder Elon Musk should better study the mining of the first cryptocurrency, since in reality it is much more environmentally friendly than is commonly thought. “I don’t know how long Elon has been studying mining, but I hope he does a little more research on this topic,” said Kraken CEO Jesse Powell in an interview with Bloomberg. He acknowledged that there may be greener alternatives to bitcoin. But, in his opinion, people overestimate the harm of cryptocurrency to the environment.
Mining digital gold allows a lot of excess and wasted energy to be utilized, and also contributes to the development of the renewable energy sector, Powell said.

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 28 - July 02, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The data on the labor market and the US economy released last week did not have much positive to please. Q1 GDP growth (6.4%) coincided with forecast data, which is no better but also no worse than market expectations. And then there were some disappointments. Initial jobless claims were 411K with a forecast of 380K. The increase in durable goods orders for May was lower than expected at 2.3% instead of 2.7%. And capital goods orders fell into the negative zone, minus 0.1%. And all this is against the back of Markit's business growth in Germany (60.4 in June versus 56.2 in May) and in the Eurozone as a whole (59.2 vs. 57.1).
Despite the slowing American economy, the risk appetite of those willing to invest in it has not subsided, but, on the contrary, even grew. They were backed by President Joe Biden's Senate-approved infrastructure plan. This plan includes the construction of new roads and bridges, ports, investments in water supply, clean energy and broadband internet. The total investment will amount to $1.2 trillion. Such an infusion will create thousands of new jobs and add points to the United States in the economic confrontation with China.
The rise in related investor optimism has already led the Dow Jones to gain more than 1,400 points over the week, the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite once again updating historic highs, and The VIX Fear and Volatility Index fell to a one-year low.
The outflow of funds to the stock markets weakened the dollar. The DXY dollar index fell from 92.32 to 91.80, while the euro was winning back 110 points from the American currency at the week's high. Starting from 1.1865, the EUR/USD pair reached 1.1975 on Friday June 25, after which the bulls dried up, followed by a fightback and finish at 1.1940;

- GBP/USD. A meeting of the Bank of England took place on Thursday, June 24. As for the specific momentary steps of the regulator, no one expected any surprises from it. It was clear to everyone that the Bank of England would not make drastic moves and would leave the parameters of its monetary policy unchanged. So it happened: the asset buyback program was maintained at ?895bn and the interest rate at 0.1%.
However, investors had hoped that positive UK labor market data would prompt the Bank's management to start discussing moves to wind down programs for quantitative easing (QE) soon. Just as their colleagues from the other side of the Atlantic intend to do.
On these expectations, as most analysts predicted (55 per cent), the GBP/USD pair moved north, reaching the key 1.4000. However, then the degree of optimism went down. The first tub of cold water was poured on Wednesday June 23 following the publication of the June Markit PMI for the UK services sector. It turned out to be lower than in May: 61.7 compared to 62.9. And then a whole chilling waterfall followed: the Bank of England not only did not change the parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program but did not give a hint that these parameters could be changed in the foreseeable future.
Carried away by a stream of sobering water, the GBP/USD pair groped the local bottom only at 1.3870. And barely pushing off from it, it was able to complete the week 20 points higher, at the level of 1.3885;   

- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, the majority of experts (65%) voted for further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair above the 111.00 horizon. They were supported by graphical analysis on H4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. And they were all right: despite the fact that the dollar was falling against the euro and the pound in the first half of the five-day period, it was growing against the Japanese yen, reaching the height of 111.10 on June 24. True, the Japanese currency failed to gain a foothold there, and it placed the last chord at 110.75;

- cryptocurrencies. Although these currencies are virtual, the news regarding them is quite real. Let's start with a brief overview.
The developer of the well-known anti-virus of the same name, “crypto-baron” John McAfee has been found dead in a cell at a prison in Barcelona. The cause of death, Forbes reports citing the Spanish Ministry of Justice, is believed to have been suicide after a Spanish court decided to extradite McAfee to the United States. There, among other things, he was accused of money laundering, tax evasion and orchestrating altcoin fraud. The US DOJ claimed McAfee and his partner earned more than $2 million on cryptocurrencies.
However, this 2 million seems a ridiculous figure compared to the $3.6 billion that Africypt's creators, brothers Raees and Ameer Cajee, from South Africa, stole from investors. And if John McAfee was already 75, then these scammers were barely 17 and 20 years old, respectively.
According to Bloomberg, the Cajee brothers' scam could become the largest in the history of the cryptocurrency market. So far, the top line has been held by Canadian QuadrigACX project creator Gerald Cotten, emptying the pockets of $162 million worth of customers.
These amounts are large, of course. But the main losses for investors do not come from the actions of fraudsters, but because of the regulators. The total crypto market capitalization decreased by almost $400 billion in just 10 days, from June 15 to June 25, - from $1.734 trillion to $1.336 trillion. It even fell to $1.164 trillion at the low, returning to the values of February 2021. In addition, almost $900 million of futures positions were liquidated in just one day, June 23.
Along with the fall of the crypto market, the hash rate of the BTC network also decreased. However, according to a number of experts, this may be due to the relocation of miners from China to other countries.
The negative news background led to a drop in bitcoin quotes below the dangerous psychological level of $30,000. As a result, the BTC/USD pair returned to where it was five months ago, on January 27, 2021. The local bottom was reached at $29,240 (a loss of about 55% from the April 14 high).
According to a number of experts, the benchmark currency could have fallen down to $25,000, but buyers came to its rescue, who were waiting for the moment to buy an asset at a large discount. As a result, the pair grew slightly, and on the evening of Friday June 25, BTC traded in the region of $32,000-33,000 per coin.
It would seem that in such a situation, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index would have to fall deep into the Extreme Fear zone, to zero. However, having shown a minimal drawdown of up to 22 points, it quickly returned to where it was a week ago, to the 25-point mark.
According to some experts, the fact that bitcoin has held up in the $30,000 area proves its exclusivity. Without it, altcoins would most likely just go into free fall.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Recall that after the June 16 meeting, the hawkish forecasts of Federal Reserve executives have dramatically revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Inspired by their rhetoric, investors rushed to buy USD even despite weak US macro statistics.
As a result, having started on June 16 from a height of 1.2125 and flying down 280 points, the EUR/USD pair completed the five-day period at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. And it turned around again and went up on Monday, June 21.
What is that? Have investors changed their minds? Or is it just a correction on the downtrend path?
On the one hand, representatives of the FRS continue to insist that the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore, for now, it is necessary to maintain soft financial conditions. Such statements, coupled with improved global risk appetite and positive economic data from the Eurozone, should push the EUR/USD pair higher.      
But on the other hand, Jerome Powell and his colleagues recognized the need to discuss the process of winding up stimulus programs (QE). There was also a signal of their intention to raise interest rates earlier than expected. The ECB, on the contrary, declares that they are not going to rush to reduce QE volumes, and that the current inflation rate in the Eurozone does not cause concern. And these factors are already not playing on the side of the dollar.
The macroeconomic indicators published next week may tip the scales in one direction or another. Data on the German consumer market will be released on Tuesday June 29 and Thursday July 1, and a preliminary consumer price index will be released on Wednesday, showing the level of inflation in the Eurozone as a whole. As for the statistics from the United States, we will find out the change in the ISM business activity index in the country's manufacturing sector on July 1. And data on the US labor market will come out on June 30 and July 02, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).
In the meantime, 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1, expect the dollar to strengthen and the pair to decline to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The next target for the bears is the March 31, 2021 low. 1.1700. The nearest support is 1.1915 and 1.1880.
The remaining 40% of the experts side with the bulls, which will try to regain the positions lost over the last month. The first serious resistance is in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone, the next one is 100 pips higher. The goal is to update the May 25 high at 1.2265;

- GBP/USD. As a reminder, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has postponed the full opening of the country's businesses for a month. This is due to an increase in cases of infection with the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. The number of infections has approached 20,000 a day, and this is putting pressure on the pound. (Although only 18 people died from COVID-19 during the same period. The ratio is less than 0.001, which is a very optimistic indicator).
The increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit continue to put pressure on the pound. This is especially true for trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
However, at the same time, 50% of experts hope that the British currency will find the strength to retest the level of 1.4000 and rise another 100 points higher. The nearest resistance is 1.3940. More distant targets are 1.4150 and 1.4250. 
20% of analysts are betting on the victory of the dollar and the fall of the pair to the zone 1.3670-1.3700. The remaining 30% believe that the pair will remain in the sideways channel 1.3800-1.4000.   
The indicator readings look like this: 85% of the oscillators are colored red, the remaining 15% give signals that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are also overwhelmingly in the red zone. Those are 100% on H4 and 85% on D1. Graphical analysis draws the following trading ranges: 1.3850-1.4050 for H4, 1.3770-1.4000 for D1.
As for the events of the coming week, we can note the publication of UK GDP data on Wednesday June 30, as well as the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Thursday July 1;

- USD/JPY. Who will win: USD haven currency or JPY's safe haven?  Or, if you like, you can ask the question the other way around: a safe haven currency JPY or a safe haven USD? 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1 bet on the dollar to win. However, the remaining 20% of the oscillators are signaling that the pair is overbought.
Graphical analysis believes that having pushed off the support in the 109.75-110.100 zone, the pair will go up, break through the resistance at 111.00 and try to first update the high of last year March 24 at 111.70, and then the high of February 20, 2020, of 112.25.
Experts’ opinions on the pair's movement in the coming week were divided equally, 50 by 50. However, in the transition to the forecast for July, 75% side with the bears, believing that the USD/JPY pair will be able to drop to the area of 108.00-108.55.
In terms of macro statistics, the Bank of Japan will release the Tankan Index for Q2 of this year on July 01. This Large Producers Index reflects the general business environment for the country's large, mostly export-oriented companies. A reading above 0 is positive for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is negative. The index is projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021.  

- cryptocurrencies. It is highly likely that the bull and bear fight in the area of $30,000 will continue. The medium-term goal of the latter is to bring the BTC/USD pair back to the $20,000 mark, the December 2017 high, after reaching which the market was pinned down by ice frosts. Now the pair has lost about 55% in just two months. So, the current crypto winter could turn out to be much harsher than in 2018. As mentioned above, investors are actively closing long positions and liquidating futures transactions. And the heads of financial giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have again declared bitcoin an unwanted investment.
Investor and founder of the hedge fund Scion Capital, Michael Burry who had predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, warned his subscribers about the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. "All the hype and speculation is just attracting retail traders before the mother of all the crashes. Parabolic [uptrends] will not pass. [...] History has not changed,” Burry wrote. The investor also noted that the problem of the digital asset market lies in too much leverage. “If you don’t know how much leverage is in cryptocurrencies, you don’t know anything about cryptocurrencies,” he stressed.
Burry had earlier warned that the market had inflated "the biggest bubble in history." In his post, he used the hashtag FlyingPigs360, which, according to Business Insider, may be a reference to the adage about investment: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered." 
The author of the bestselling "Rich Dad Poor Dad" entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki joined Michael Burrie. He also expects the crypto market to collapse. “The biggest bubble is getting bigger. The biggest crash in world history is approaching. Buy more gold and silver. Expect bitcoin to drop to $24,000,” he wrote. (Recall that in 2020, Kiyosaki advised buying the first cryptocurrency until its price exceeded $20,000 and predicted the growth of the asset to $50,000).
Jim Kramer, former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money show, sold most of his bitcoins following news of China's mining restrictions. "When China pursues something, they tend to bring the matter to an end. I think they see bitcoin as a direct threat to the regime because of what it is - the system is beyond their control,” he said and he added that a decrease in the rate of mined coins could have a positive effect on the rate of the first cryptocurrency, but this did not happen. “When mining is limited, bitcoin obviously has to go up, unless holders are going out all over the place.” 
However, as usual, there are not only those who sell in the market, but also those who buy. Thus, for example, the founder of the Point72 Asset Management Fund Steve Cohen, unlike Jim Cramer, on the contrary, reformatted completely to cryptocurrency. Cohen, whose net worth is estimated at $14 billion, said that he does not care about the current price of bitcoin, as he is still an early investor: “Now I definitely won't miss anything. I missed the first part, but I still feel that I got involved quite early,” says the billionaire.
The MicroStrategy company also replenished its reserves of the main cryptocurrency, having bought another 13,005 coins. This Michael Saylor firm now owns 105,085 BTC, making it the largest corporate investor in digital assets.
The company made the purchase after it raised $500 million through the placement of high-priority securities. As Sailor wrote on Twitter, the 13,005 coins were bought for just under $500 million at an average price of $37,617. In total, the businessman invested over $2.7 billion in bitcoins, and the average purchase price was $26,080, which allows the company to remain in the black for now.
In terms of forecasts, the scenario described by the popular PlanB analyst is interesting. As usual, the specialist relies on a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model. PlanB emphasizes that the current price pattern is consistent with a bearish scenario, however he is confident that bitcoin will hit its all-time high by October. And the price will reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
“Bitcoin fell below $34,000 due to Elon Musk's tweet about the unsustainability of bitcoin, as well as due to the panic caused by the Chinese repression against miners,” PlanB tweeted. “However, there are more fundamental reasons for the June decline. Perhaps they will spread to July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on on-chain analysis): August> $47,000, September> $43,000, October> $63,000, November> $98,000, December> $135,000." The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in BTC to $450,000.
The weighted average forecast of experts for the coming week looks like this: 70% of them expect the BTC/USD pair to return to the $36,000 zone, the remaining 30% see it at $28,000-29,000.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- "The cryptocurrency market is not yet completely healthy, however, the healing process has already begun." This conclusion was reached by JPMorgan analysts in their new report, Bloomberg writes. Although bitcoin is still far from highs, cryptocurrencies are gradually recovering from the collapse.
For example, the lack of activity in the bitcoin futures market was described by JPMorgan strategists as a “positive factor.” However, the short-term outlook, in their opinion, is "extremely difficult." Analysts also believe that there are still "submarine positions" in the market, that the market should get rid of. However, it is unclear from the report what level bitcoin should reach for full “healing.”

- Former CEO of Gyft and co-founder of the Civic project, Vinnie Lingham, was once nicknamed the "oracle" because he was able to predict the future value of the oldest cryptocurrency.
Lingham's predictions for BTC are not always optimistic, and his calls are traditionally more conservative than those of people with fantastic ideas. However, like many others, he believes there is a possibility that BTC could hit six figures as early as this year. Oracle wrote in his Twitter account that if the price continues to hold at $30,000, then we will probably see bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year.

- Owners of small hydropower plants in China are forced to sell equipment due to government restrictive measures against bitcoin miners. These are small hydroelectric power plants generating about 50 MW, some of which are located in the Sichuan province. Local authorities demanded a halt to the activities of “key” miners until June 20 and banned energy companies from supplying power to them.

- The President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a law providing for the introduction of additional mining fees. The National Association of Blockchain and Data Center Industry of Kazakhstan said the decision will “very negatively affect the investment attractiveness of the industry.” According to the president of the association, miners from China, who see Kazakhstan as a possible jurisdiction for migration, are also “embarrassed by this initiative.”
As for the authorities, they see no “critical consequences” from the adoption of the law. In their view, the introduction of an additional electricity charge when mining cryptocurrencies will allow "to bring out of the shadow those miners who are now in the grey zone." 

- Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of the Mad Money show on CNBC Jim Cramer cut his positions at Ethereum in May, after the coin hit the historic high at $4,350. And now he has again increased his savings in the second most capitalized cryptocurrency. Surprisingly, it was the positive dynamics of... bitcoin that pushed him to buy Ethereum. “I went back to Ethereum because bitcoin held above $30,000,” he claimed. And he added, "I love Ethereum because people are really using it a lot more."

- Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who is one of the top three richest people in Mexico according to Forbes, said that when choosing an asset for the next 30 years, “would I never choose the stinking fiat”, and preferred bitcoin.
“Fiat is a fraud,” Pliego stated. “See: I started my career in 1981. The Mexican peso was then quoted against the dollar at a rate of 20 to 1. But after 10 years, the rate became 20,000 to 1. And that's just in Mexico. But look at Venezuela, Argentina or Zimbabwe. The numbers have grown so much that this has led to a violation of all proportions. Therefore, no pesos, no paper money!"
Salinas believes that bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. 'It's an asset that has international value and is trading with incredible liquidity globally. That's enough for it to be part of every portfolio, period." 
The key advantage of bitcoin, according to the billionaire, is its limited emission. For the same reason, he does not believe in Ethereum, explaining that unlimited emission leads to the depreciation of existing assets.

- One of the markets where the competition between bitcoin and gold is most pronounced is India - a country where people used to traditionally invest in the precious metal. It is believed that Indian households own more than 25,000 tons of gold, although bitcoin has recently entered the country as well. According to the analytical service Chainalysis, investments in cryptocurrency in the country have grown from about $200 million to almost $40 billion in the last year alone, which means an increase of 20,000%. This is despite numerous efforts by the country's government and central bank to prevent, if not totally ban, investment in cryptocurrencies.
There are now more than 15 million crypto investors in the country, which is less than 23 million in the US, but more than 2.3 million in the UK. However, for a country with a population of over 1.3 billion people, the share of those involved in cryptocurrency transactions is still very low: 1.15%.
Of the 15 million named, the largest proportion are millennials under 35, who are less attracted to gold than previous generations, according to the World Gold Council. 

- Veteran of the crypto market and one of the largest BTC holders, 41-year-old Mircea Popescu died in Costa Rica. He was also known as a blogger and self-proclaimed "greatest erotic writer in the world."
According to local media reports, Popescu was carried off by a current near the Tramonto Hotel when he went to swim in a prohibited place. His body was found on the beach on the morning of June 23. A medical team arrived at the scene, but resuscitation measures did not bring results. 
Remembering Popescu, members of the crypto community call him "the evil genius of bitcoin maximalism", "the father of toxicity around bitcoin" and "sleeping giant". He was one of bitcoin's most conservative supporters and objected to any changes to the cryptocurrency protocol. “The guy had enough bitcoins to do whatever he wanted in life. Popescu could drop bitcoin almost to zero at one moment and hold the price for some time. He aroused little sympathy but laid the foundations for what we have today."
Some believe that by naming 1 million coins, Popescu exaggerated the number of bitcoins at his disposal. The real figure could be between 50,000 and 300,000 BTC. However, it made him one of the largest cryptocurrency holders in the world. Now this huge number of bitcoins has disappeared, apparently forever.

- Paraguay could become the next country after El Salvador to recognize bitcoin as legal tender. The corresponding bill will be presented in the country's parliament on July 14. According to a representative of the Congress, the initiative has already found support among "a number of very important enterprises in Paraguay."
On June 22, Paraguay's Universidad Americana University announced that it will accept Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple as tuition fees from August 2021.

- Jason Urban, Co-Head of Trading at Galaxy Digital, noted that negative news should exhaust itself by autumn, and bitcoin will continue its upward movement. He believes quotes could reach $70,000 by the end of this year. “We will soon see an update to the historical high,” he declared.
Urban believes that many institutional investors have not yet entered the crypto market due to regulatory uncertainty, however, they will sooner or later, creating an increased demand for BTC.

- Sam Trabucco, a trader at Alameda Research, also believes that the bitcoin market is already preparing for an upswing. In his opinion, a few negative news that have been released recently have no fundamental value and is only aimed at creating short-term negative sentiments.
Trabucco writes that negative news from China, Elon Musk's concerns about the environmental friendliness of bitcoin and the likely insolvency of MicroStrategy associated with the fall in BTC are causing an overly negative reaction. Previously, the price reacted in the same way to the Tesla purchase for BTC and Musk's optimistic messages. “But none of this news in any way affects the value of bitcoin and how people should evaluate it in the medium term,” the expert said.
Trabucco also added that it was all exacerbated by a bloated derivatives market and massive liquidations of positions. “No one wanted to sell at $30,000, however many were forced to do so. This means that the $30,000 price should be taken as a buy signal,” he said.

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