Forex news and analysis regular update

[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

What’s next? – GOLD 13.04.18

Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Friday, with rising geopolitical tension over Syria offering support to the demand of safe-haven assets.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.342.90 a troy ounce as of 06:20 GMT.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said military actions in Syria “could be very soon or not so soon at all”. His remarks boosted the dollar’s position and weighed on the metal.

The precious metal fell 1.3 percent in the previous session, the largest one-day drop since March 28. The dollar’s dynamic continues to play a key role for gold prices.

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.08 percent higher at 89.33 by the time of this writing.

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

Ahead in today’s session, traders will be paying attention to speeches by FOMC members Rosengren and Bullard as of 12:00 GMT and 13:00 GMT respectively.

On the data front, JOLTs job openings for February will be published at 14:00 GMT, along with Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment indicators for April.

 

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[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 16 - 20, 2018)

EURUSD

Irrespective of the bullish attempt that was witnessed last week, the outlook on EURUSD remains neutral. The neutrality has been ongoing for over 2 months, and the bullish attempt that happened last week pales into insignificance when compared to the overall outlook on the market. Price currently oscillates between the support line at 1.2200 and the resistance line at 1.2400. There is a going to be a directional bias once that support line or that resistance line is breached. However, a breach of the support line at 1.2200 is much more likely.

 

USDCHF

There is some form of bullishness in this market. Since the support level at 0.9200 was breached on February 16, price has moved upwards by 440 pips, closing above the support level at 0.9600 on Friday. This week is supposed to be bullish, because USD will likely gain some stamina against certain currencies like EUR, CHF, AUD and NZD (with the exception of GBP). The first object of attack this week is the resistance level at 0.9650.

 

GBPUSD

The market gained 220 pips last week, almost reaching the distribution territory at 1.4300, and getting corrected lower, to close below the distribution territory at 1.4250. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price is supposed to go seriously upwards again, breaching the distribution territories at 1.4250, 1.4300 and 1.4350 to the upside. Short trades are not yet recommended.

 

USDJPY

The trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, and bullish in the short-term. There is a weak short-term bullishness owing to the fact that price made some effort to go upwards last week, gaining only 80 pips. Price managed to briefly breach the supply level at 107.50, but it could not close above it on Friday (it closed below it). However, price would be able to go above the supply level at 107.50; even reaching other supply levels at 108.50, 109.00 and 109.50.

 

EURJPY

This cross is bearish in the long-term, and now bullish in the short-term. It has gained roughly 250 pips this month, and it can gain another 250 pips before the end of the month. That is something that can bring about a long-term bullish outlook on the market as it goes through the supply zones at 133.00, 133.50 and 134.00, even exceeding those supply zones as price goes further and further northwards.

 

GBPJPY

There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The market gained roughly 500 pips in March and it has gained over 400 pips this month, closing above the demand zone at 152.50 on Friday. The outlook on GBP/JPY and most other JPY pairs, remains bullish for this week. The price is expected to reach the supply zones at 153.00, 153.50 and 154.00: the targets that could even be exceeded.

Trading forcast forex analysis

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below: 

 

“The markets never reward desperation. They only reward clear thinking, discipline and courage.” – Louise Bedford,

 

[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 16 - 20, 2018

For starters, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be absolutely true for many major and cryptocurrency pairs:

- EUR/USD. According to the graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to consolidate in the Pivot Point zone of the medium-term side channel in 2018. The level of 1.2215 was indicated as the lower limit, the upper one was 1.2355. At the same time, 35% of analysts suggested that the US dollar will continue to weaken, provoked by data on the labor market, and the pair would be able to break through 1.2355, rising above this level.
It was this scenario that was implemented. The pair climbed 115 points by the middle of the week, reaching the height of 1.2395, after which it turned and returned to where it had been expected - to the medium-term Pivot Point in the zone of 1.2328;

- The forecast for the pair GBP/USD had supposed a certain growth, but not the one that really happened. Recall that the growth above the horizon 1.4200 was supported by only a quarter of analysts, but the dollar weakening surpassed even their expectations, and the pair almost reached the level of 1.4300 on Friday. However, the strength of the bulls dried up soon, and it rolled back to the level of 1.4240;

- The forecast made by most experts on the pair USD/JPY, suggested continuation of the medium-term lateral trend, which began in mid-February, and its growth to a height of 108.00. That's exactly what happened. The pair moved within the corridor 106.60-107.40 for the whole week, after which it tried to move one level above, but, having reached the height of 107.77, could not get fixed there and returned to the highs of the previous week;

- The forecast for cryptocurrencies turned out to be absolutely correct as well. All major crypto-pairs went up as expected.
The script for the BTC/USD provided for an increase to 7,820-8,360. In fact, the pair reached the mark of 8,200.
For the ethereum, the target was the zone 440-511, it managed to climb even slightly higher - to the height of 527, after which, it returned to the 490 mark by the end of the week.
For the LTC/USD, the scenario envisaged a rise to 155-175, however, even though the pair went up confidently, the bulls' enthusiasm dried up a little earlier - at the height of 133.
And, finally, ripple. The experts set a height of 0.67 as the main target for it, to where it got on Friday evening.
***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. 60% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1, continue to insist on the pair going down first to the level of 1.2215, and then, possibly, to the minimum of the medium-term side corridor at the horizon 1.2155. However, the geopolitical situation in which Syria is involved, as well as the trade war with China, and a number of other factors, can make influence the situation and lead to a further weakening of the dollar. In this case, as 40% of analysts believe as well as most of the oscillators on D1, the pair can continue to move to the resistance levels at the top of the channel, these are 1.2410, 1.2475 and 1.2525;

- Almost all the indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, both on H4 and D1 (85%) are determined to buy the GBP/USD. But as for the experts, here the bulls' advantage is not so impressive: 60% by 40%. The main support is located at 1.4145, then 1.4065 and 1.4010. The resistance levels are 1.4345 and 1.4425.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the advantage is shifted to the bears, and here 60% of analysts vote not for growth, but for the fall of the pair, expecting its fall to the March lows around 1.3760;

- USD/JPY. Almost all indicators are painted green following the trends of the last days and weeks. However, we should pay attention to the fact that the pair is at the upper boundary of the strong resistance zone, which can be traced starting from this February. More than 70% of experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above this zone, and its weekly fluctuations will occur in the range of 107.00-108.50. However, one third of analysts are sure that the pair will return to the side corridor 106.65-107.00, and, if it breaks its lower border, it may drop another 100 points lower, reaching the local bottom at 105.65. This development is also confirmed by the graphical analysis on D1;

- As for cryptocurrencies, experts expect this week that the pair BTC/USD will move along the level of 8,000, making fluctuations in the range of 7,570-8,575. ETH/USD may try to conquer the height of 600, but the ethereum will not be able to get fixed there and it will return to the levels around 485-510. For the pair LTC/USD, experts point to the height of 145 as the target, and to the zone 0.70-0.740 for the pair XRP/USD.

Dear traders, brokerage company NordFX offers you the opportunity to earn both on growth and on the fall of cryptocurrencies, using a leverage ratio of up to 1:1000.
Also, you can just invest in cryptocurrencies on favorable terms.
Deposit and withdrawal of funds in USD, bitcoins and ethereums.

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[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

What’s next? – GOLD 16.04.18

 

Gold prices traded higher in Asian hours on Monday, with market players weighing geopolitical concerns while keeping an eye on upcoming economic reports scheduled later this week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures were up 0.07 percent at $1.348.90 a troy ounce as of 06:50 GMT.

Last week, the yellow metal settled in green territory at $1,347.80 per ounce, about 0.44 percent higher. For the week, gold prices added 0.88 percent.

There were three factors supporting the metal in the last few sessions: prospects of a trade war between the US and China, rising international tensions over Syria, and the dollar’s dynamic.

President Xi Jinping said in the previous week that China is willing to take active measures to open its economy, allowing more foreign investments and importation. While this position reinforced the idea of a diplomatic solution, the US hasn’t responded in the same terms so far.

Meanwhile, attention progressively moved to Syria, where three military stations were destroyed by a US-led coalition airstrike launched on Friday. Forces from France, Britain and the US targeted key military infrastructure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

President Donald Trump gave green light to a military intervention following Syria’s deployment of chemical weapons on April 7 in Douma. That attack killed nearly 40 people.

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major currencies, was trading 0.03 percent lower at 89.48 by the time of this writing.

Dollar-denominated gold is very sensitive to moves in the American currency. A stronger dollar makes the yellow metal less attractive for investors holding foreign currencies.

Capping gains for the metal were minutes of the Fed’s March monetary policy encounter, which reinstated the possibility of another two interest rate hikes later this year. According to policymakers, the economy will reach its 2 percent target pretty soon.

Ahead in today’s session, retail sales for March will be out as of 12:30 GMT, along with the NY Empire State manufacturing index for April. Business inventories are due at 14:00 GMT.

Investors will also be monitoring a series of speeches by FOMC representatives, including Kaplan and Kashkari at 16:00 GMT and Bostic as of 17:15 GMT.

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[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

What’s next? – USDJPY 25.04.18

The dollar was trading 0.33 percent higher vs the Japanese yen at 109.17 as of 08:30 GMT on Wednesday, with the dollar taking a central role in the pair’s dynamic in relation to US T yields.

 

The 10-year US treasury yield reached 3 percent, a level not seen since the beginnings of 2014. However, rates rebounded and moved back below the psychological level.

 

The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major competitors, was trading 0.33 percent higher at 90.84 by the time of this writing.

 

Higher bond yields can be interpreted as a vote of confidence in the economy. Usually, rising bond yields are accompanied by falling gold prices as demand for safe-havens decreases.

 

Analysts pointed out bond yields are reacting on expectations for further monetary policy normalization measures, particularly interest rate hikes scheduled later this year.

 

Gold gains were capped by an upbeat geopolitical context as positive developments were made over the US-China trade conflict. President Donald Trump emphasized that “China’s very serious, and we’re very serious,” adding that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will be part of delegation travelling to China. “We’ve got a very good chance at making a deal.”

On the data front, the Conference Board said consumer confidence for April came in at 128.7, surpassing expectations for 126.0 and a previous reading of 127.0. New home sales increased 4 percent in March to an annualized rate of 694,000 units. Also above analysts’ forecasts.

No relevant economic data is due for the day. Market players will keep an eye on bond yields, which could be affected by geopolitics and safe-haven demand.

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[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast 

 

First, a review of last week’s forecast. It should be noted that the forecast for bitcoin and other cryptocurrency pairs proved to be almost 100% correct.

- EUR/USD. Recall that, in the short term, only a third of experts expected this pair to fall. When shifting from the weekly forecast to medium-term forecast, however, the number of supporters of the US currency strengthening increased from 30% to 65%. The dollar decided to get ahead of the events and, starting from Monday, dragged the pair down. Analysts named the levels 1.2335 and 1.2235 as targets. The pair ended up reaching the first of them, and almost got to the second one, fixing the local bottom at 1.2259. It then turned and completed the week in zone 1.2295;

- A similar forecast was given for GBP/USD. And just as in the case of EUR/USD, in the medium term, the number of bears' supporters increased from 35% to 60%. Only 10% of oscillators on D1 now signaled that the pair was oversold, which meant a fall would only be expected in early March. However, the pair managed to lose 175 points from Monday to Thursday. However, afterwards the euro won back most of the losses, and the pair completed the trading session at 1.3965;

- USD/JPY. Here experts' opinions about the breakdown of the lower line of the mid-term side corridor 108.00-114.75 were divided almost equally. 45% considered it to be an unrealistic scenario and expected the pair to turn upwards. 20% of the oscillators agreed with this, signaling that it was oversold. The weekly chart shows that the pair did indeed almost reach the horizon of 108.00, after which the forces of the bulls dried up, and it rolled back 110 points lower, indicating a new level of support / resistance at 106.90;

- We now move to cryptocurrencies. It is known that the primary task in this forecast is to determine trends. Here the forecast turned out to be 100% accurate. As for the goals, because of the unusually high volatility of these pairs, it is more appropriate to talk not about levels, but about support / resistance zones, which have a fairly wide range. Even so, the forecast turned out to be quite accurate here as well:
- Giving a forecast for bitcoin (BTC/USD), in mid-January we called the $10,000 zone as one of the key zones. It is around this horizon that the pair has been fluctuating all the time. As for the weekly forecast, it looked like this: growth to the 10,500-11,000 zone, followed by a reversal and fall to 9,470. Indeed, the pair went north in the first half of the week, reaching the level of 11,750. However, by Wednesday, it was already possible to observe a double, and sometimes a triple divergence on the charts of many oscillators. And soon there followed a trend reversal, as a result of which the pair fell to the level of 9.555;
- Ethereum (ETH/USD): according to the forecast, it would first increase to 1,000, then decrease to 775-840. In reality, it showed growth to 975.80, then a reversal and a decline to 783.80;
- Litecoin (LTC/USD): according to the forecast, it would first increase to 250, then turn and return to level 220, and in case of a breakthrough, drop to 165. It ended up growing to 251, then turned and fell to 180;
- Ripple (XRP/USD): the forecast indicated growth to 1.164, and then a turn and return to the support at 0.83, or even 0.77. It ended up growing to 1.143, then the turn and fall to the level of 0.79.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Almost 70% of experts, supported by the overwhelming majority of indicators, expect the pair to continue falling, identifying 1.2200 and 1.2165 as the nearest support levels. The following support is at 1.2070.
When moving to the medium-term forecast, the proportion of bears decreases from 70% to 45%. Half of the trend indicators and oscillators on D1 have already taken a neutral position, and graphical analysis on the daytime time frame points directly northwards: it believes that the pair will first reach the resistance at 1.2550, and in case of its breakthrough, will rush to 1.2685;

- GBP/USD. Most indicators here are painted green. The opinions of analysts are divided exactly in half: 50% support the fall of the pair, 50% support its growth. When it comes to graphical analysis, H4 displays movement in the 1.3835-1.4145 lateral channel. When moving to D1, the pair's oscillation range expands to 1.3765-1.4345.
It should be noted that in the medium term, almost 70% of experts are already voting for the pair’s decline, expecting the pair to return to 1.3300-1.3550;

- USD/JPY. For the second week in a row, experts are unable to reach a consensus regarding the breakthrough of the lower line of the medium-term side corridor 108.00-114.75. Only 5% of the oscillators so far signal that the pair is oversold. However, 30% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, still consider the breakthrough to be a false alarm and expect the pair to return to 107.80-108.00, and then even higher to the resistance at 109.85.
As for most experts, they believe the pair will certainly once again test the support at 105.54 and, in the event of its breakthrough, will rush to 104.30. In the medium term, they believe it will go even further to the 2016 low in the 98.99-101.20 zone;

- and, finally, the main asset of the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin. Experts, supported by volume indicators and oscillators, believe that BTC/USD will continue its decline until the middle of the week, reaching a local bottom in the 8,400-9,040 zone, after which a trend reversal will follow. The pair will then return to the levels of 9,900-11,000.
Analysts believe that similar dynamics can be expected from the rest of the cryptocurrency pairs NordFX makes available for trading (ETH/USD, LTC/USD, XRP/USD, etc.). They believe the downtrend will continue until the end of February, followed by a rebound and a return to the highs of the previous week.

Dear traders NordFX offers you the opportunity to trade crypto currency with a unique leverage level of 1:1000.
Deposits in USD and Bitcoins.

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[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

EUR/USD intraday bounce toward 1.1950

The USD bulls are taking some profits off the table on data-light Monday. 
The EUR/USD is bouncing off the 1.1900 handle but the overall trend remains bearish.
The EUR/USD is trading at around 1.1931 down 0.25% on a data-light Monday's trading. 

The single currency found some intraday support at the 1.1900 handle amid some mild USD profit-taking and euro bulls are grinding higher toward the 1.1950 psychological level. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in its fourth day of consolidation after posting a strong bull trend in the last three weeks. 

This Monday sees many speeches from Fed officials. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin is set to speak at George Mason University in Fairfax in Virginia at 18:00 GMT while Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan will be discussing "Learning About an ML-Driven Economy" at 19:30 GMT. Scheduled at the same time is the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans who will be speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta conference titled "Machines Learning Finance. Will they Change the Game?" in Florida at 19:30 GMT. The speeches are academic in nature and should not reveal any surprises in monetary policy and therefore they are not expected to be the next catalyst in the USD bull trend. It is also worth mentioning that UK markets are closed in observance of May Day, therefore, reducing the volume of transactions in the foreign exchange market. 

EUR/USD 4-hour chart 

EUR/USD intraday bounce

The main trend is bearish and immediate supports are seen at 1.1900 and at 1.1817 swing low (December 22, 2017). To the upside, resistances are priced in at 1.1950 supply level and at the 1.2000 psychological level. 

All forex news: http://www.fxallnews.com/category/forex-analysis/index.html

[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 14 - 18, 2018

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that the opinions of experts last week were divided almost evenly: one third sided with the bears, one third sided with the bulls, and 30% took a neutral position, expecting a sideways trend. As a result, as if fulfilling an order, the pair first went down to the level of 1.1822, then rose by 145 points and completed the five-day period almost in the same place where it started, in the zone of 1.1940.
In total, in less than a month, from April 19 to May 09, the pair lost about 580 points, without any serious corrections, which caused serious financial damage to those traders who had opened positions to buy against the trend and could not stand such an impressive drawdown of the deposit;

- a similar divergence of opinions could be observed when assessing the future of the GBP/USD. We could expect any changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England on Thursday, May 10, but everything went on without surprises, and the pair stayed practically within the boundaries of the side corridor, which was drawn for it by graphical analysis, 1.3460-1.3615.

- The pair USD/JPY also moved into a sideways trend, making return-oscillating movements in the range of 108.75-110.00 the second week in a row. The week ended with the pair being close to the beginning of the week, in the horizon, which can be called Pivot Point in the first half of May - 109.40;

- Cryptocurrencies. Experts expected the bitcoin to grow above the 10.300 mark, and the pair BTC/USD did, from the very beginning, go up, but could not even reach 10,000. Having reached the mark of 9,950, it turned and rolled down. the fall was accelerated by the Mt.Gox sell-off and by the statements of two super-billionaires - the head of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett and the Microsoft founder Gates.
The Japanese crypto-exchange Mt.Gox sold bitcoins worth more than $ 70 million, and the market immediately responded to it by a large-scale correction. Things were made even worse by Warren Buffett, who said that cryptocurrencies would end badly, and Bill Gates, who called bitcoin one of the most speculative things in the world. As a result, the pair fell below a very strong support level of 8.620 on Friday, May 11.
ETH/USD and XRP/USD could not achieve their goals either. it was only the LTC/USD that fulfilled the task, reaching the height of 183.75. But it could not resist the general crypto market trend, and, having made a quick U-turn, went down following the "colleagues", falling to the lows of the last few weeks in the area of 135.00.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. More than 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as indicators on H4, expect the pair to continue to grow, which it started to do in the middle of last week. The nearest target is zone 1.2050-1.2100, the next one is 1.2215. Less than one third support the bears this time, but trend indicators on D1 and 15% of oscillators, indicating the pair is overbought, agree with them. In case they win, the pair can return to the horizon 1.1800. The next support is at the level of 1.1715;

- GBP/USD. Considering that the pair has already fully worked out the reversal pattern "double top", most analysts (60%) vote for the pair's growth. This script is also supported by graphical analysis. Signals that the pair is oversold are sent by 20% of oscillators on D1 as well. The nearest resistance is 1.3625, the target is 1.3765.
As for the remaining 40% of experts, in their opinion, the pair could fall to the level of 1.3450, and, in case of its breakdown, 150 points lower, to support 1.3300;

- it is impossible to form any consensus on the future of USD/JPY at the moment. Both the opinions of analysts, and the indicators' readings are divided approximately equally: one half are for the growth, one half are for the fall of the pair. As for the graphical analysis, it indicates a further decrease in the pair to the lower boundary of the two-week lateral channel 108.75-110.00 both on H4 and D1. Having reached it, it is quite possible that the pair will turn around and go up to the level of 110.00. This can happen before the end of May, and it is already 70% of experts who agree with this;

- Cryptocurrencies. At the end of Friday, May 11, the pair BTC/USD was slightly below the lower boundary of the three-week side corridor 8.620-9.955. Many analysts believe that if the week does not receive another portion of negative news, the pair will return to the borders of this channel.
However, a number of experts believe that the bitcoin will continue to fall, and in this case it can find a local bottom at the level of 7.720. The pair will be able to get back to the marks around 10,000 only by the very end of May.
Analysts expect downtrends to continue during the coming week for the rest of the currency pairs: ETH/USD, LTC/USD and XRP/USD. However, this correction, in their opinion, will be temporary, and all the pairs are expected to return to the highs of the first week of May, by the end of the month.

Source: http://www.fxallnews.com/category/forex-analysis/index.html

[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

Two days of the week will be most important for market and for gold in particular

Over the past two days, the precious metal has been able to gain significantly, moving away from the minimum values since mid-December 2017, but the problem for gold is that the correction was more technical in nature and was not due to fundamental reasons. First, the yellow metal was heavily oversold, which significantly hampered the further advance of the price downwards.

Secondly, on Tuesday it was an earlier market close and on Wednesday there was a day off in US, this provoked some profit taking and positions close.

However, all the fundamental factors that previously contributed to a gold decline retain their influence on the market limiting the opportunities for price recovery. One of the main negative drivers for gold remains the some- Fed policy, which led to the strengthening of the dollar to the maximum levels since July 2017. Two remaining days of the current trading week are of special importance for gold, as today and tomorrow, there will appear strong factors on the market that can change the attitude of traders and raise volatility.

Today US will report on the labor market from ADP, these data largely from investors expectations on the official report of the US Department of Labor, which will be released one day later. There is a general expectation of number increase of employed from 178K to 190K, which is likely to support the dollar and, accordingly, weaken the position of gold.

Secondly, the US non-manufacturing PMI will go published. Here, on the contrary, an insignificant decrease is expected from 58.6 to 58.3 points, but, like PMI in the manufacturing sector published on Monday, there can be unpleasant (for gold) surprises.

 

[⭐ MIchel Kalib]

Sterling and Gold in focus on central bank movements

 

 

Thursday is a big day for the GBP against all the other major pairs soon as the Bank of England is expected to lift interest rates for the first time since 2017 to 0.75% (0.50% exp). However, the market I believe is already priced in and traders should be wary of what's to come, as I feel for things are still very uncertain. While many have been talking up Carney being upbeat on Bloomberg recently, UK data has been lackluster and the fact of the matter is that Brexit poses a real trade threat to the economy in the long run, with the potential to do a large amount of economic damage if there were to be a hard Brexit. So markets will expect the rate rise, but they will mostly be interested in the wording and questions that is used after, to really gauge the economy and how they expect it to move in the long run. There is certainly the potential for a quick blip and a brief sell-off if the wording is more dovish than expected and I do feel that Carney will have to highlight the Brexit risk that is at hand.

For me the GBPUSD will be the prime candidate when it comes to movements. So far the market has priced in the interest rate and will be focused on the wording. Couple this with the fact that FOMC is likely be hawkish based on recent economic data and it's clear to see that things could be bearish for the GBPUSD. With that in mind the rejection of resistance at 1.3171 makes a lot of sense as the market is nervous here and each wave higher has so far been weaker on the daily chart. Traders will be focused on support levels now, with support at 1.3069 likely to be the first to be tested by the bears. Further on from that and 1.2958 and 1.2798 are likely to also be tested sharply if things are dovish from the Bank of England. If the GBPUSD does however swing to the upside then the 50 day moving average could act as technical resistance in this market.

The other major mover today has been gold which has come under some serious pressure yet again. At present it seems that with a stronger USD commodities have taken a beating, and that bearish pressure is still lingering in markets.

Despite the falls support has been very strong at 1213, which is looking like the land in the sand for the bears and where the bulls seem to be taking control. If things can be turned around here then a push upwards to resistance at 1240 and 1258 are likely on the cards. One thing to watch for though will be FOMC which could cause some serious volatility and of course the upcoming non-farm payroll, but for now the 1213 is the key level to watch here. Get forex analysis news