official Amega daily market overview & news alerts

[AmegaFX]

Hello traders and investors!

In this thread, we will be publishing daily market analyses as well as news alerts for significant events that are likely to affect financial markets volatility. We hope you will find these posts useful and we would very much appreciate your feedback and comments.

Please keep in mind that our analyses are intended for educational/informational purposes only, and do not contain – nor should they be considered as containing – financial, investment tax, or trading advice and recommendations.

[AmegaFX]

Technical analysis 21.03.18 – GOLD/USD

Today the main intrigue of the last weeks will be finally revealed: at 6 pm (UTC) FOMS will announce its decision on the main interest rate. American dollar is going to be really flexible.

The GOLD/USD has been trading in a relatively slight flat since March, 15. Such long-time currency flotation is explained by the loss of market interest to the protective assets.  All of the bidders clearly want to get “fast money”. Fundamentalists expect that Fed will stick to the more aggressive approach in relation to the interest rate revision, carrying out the procedure not three, but four times a year. It is anticipated that everything that will be said at the meeting will be reflected in USD quotation and consequently in the gold quotation as well. In expert opinion, any stern action can have a positive impact on the US dollar so that precious metal prices are likely to decline.

According to the technical analysis, there is a prolonged range. Being almost flat, MACD draws weak rising summits just slightly above zero. Inspired by the idea of decline, Stochastiks has already headed the south, but in fact they were joined by the lightweight MACD, have given out the signal to sell. In such circumstances, if the fall happens, then it will be not so deep and stay within the existing band.

Trade plan for today: on the daily time frame the value is on both sides clamped by the movings 1318 (МА18) and 1304 (МА100). H1 is ready to move up to the zone 1315-1324. The buy entrance from support levels is 1312, 1310. If the market shows such heights in the prospect, it will be definitely worthwhile to sell from these levels.

Attention! The forecasts presented in the review are a private opinion of the author. Comments to them are not recommendations for trading or guidance on working in financial markets. AMEGA does not bear any responsibility for possible direct or indirect losses (or other types of loss) that may arise in the case of use of review materials. The author's punctuation, orthography and stylistics are preserved in the review.

[AmegaFX]

OIL/#CL/USD - technical analysis

On the 27th of March the Shanghai International Energy Exchange started to trade Oil for national currency. The contract signed in September with the start prize of 416 yuans per barrel was sold for 440 yuans. The price quotations for oil have reduced at the Forex market after opening of the trading session. The price per barrel has reduced from 66.55 to 65.45 US dollars.

In fact, this reduction has been a long time coming in terms of a technical analysis: MACD was bought from the 17th of November 2017 and tries to unload from time to time, but the bulls turns out to be strong enough all the time. Now everything is ready for short-term reduction in the daily time frame, it is not surprising that the Asian session has been started from the south.

Trade plan for the day: H4 sets to a decline to the support level of 62.90. Taking into account that the bulls not only manage to reach the key level of 65.00, but also to remain on this level. The traders have to keep waiting, as the right moment to start trading was missed. Alert for the 65.10. Monitor the condition of the pair coming to this level in order to open shot positions.

 Attention! The forecasts presented in the review are a private opinion of the author. Comments to them are not recommendations for trading or guidance on working in financial markets. AMEGA does not bear any responsibility for possible direct or indirect losses (or other types of loss) that may arise in the case of use of review materials. The author's punctuation, orthography and stylistics are preserved in the review.

[AmegaFX]

Review NZD/USD 04.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: the current week for the New Zealand dollar is developing according to the bullish scenario. After low volatility during Bank holiday Monday and last Friday (due to Catholic Easter) price goes up powerfully, twice, updating daily highs staying until the level 0.72953. Today's news on USD -the ADP Employment Change, ADP Employment Change and FOMC Member Loretta J. Mester speech - can significantly affect the course.

Technical analysis: the short-term bullish trend, which started on March 20 from 0.71516, is still continuing. The medium - term trend is also bullish, which began on November 17, 2017, the rise from 0.67779 reliable signs of a reversal does not yet show. The coincidence of medium- and short-term trends is a good buy signal.

Trading recommendations: the long - term trend has also been bullish since 2009. Unidirectional movement of the three trends is not so often, so the priority-long positions, while continuing to move above 0.73000. On H1 the indicator "Alligator" good "opened its mouth". Cancel this scenario breakdown of the support level 0.71870.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

[AmegaFX]

Review USDCHF 05.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: short - term trend-bullish, on March 27 the Swiss franc pushed away from the "bottom" near 0.94326 and confidently goes up. If you look back a little, it is obvious that bullish dynamics has been maintained for the third consecutive month, which began with 0.91864 rise has not yet turned,which tells us about the strength of the trend. From important news for today – the Trade Balance and Initial Jobless Claims in the USA, as well as FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic speech.

Technical analysis: long-term trend-bearish since 2000, 18 years. Perhaps now we are seeing a slow reversal, since 2011 the pair is trading in a relatively narrow (for MN chart) price range from 0.70444 to 1.03458. The strong resistance level at 0.96000 is broken, and the price does not think to stop yet.

 Trading recommendations: the main focus is on long positions above 0.96000. Let's pay attention to an important psychological moment – the price on the main working timeframes H1 and H4 somehow rests against the top of the screen, it seems (but is not) too high. It is comfortable to play on the rebound down – and it often turns out to be a fraud. Such a powerful price movement often speaks of its willingness to continue in this direction, rather than a rapid reversal. Cancel this scenario breakdown in reliable support at 0.94235, then go on sale.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[AmegaFX]

Review EUR/JPY 06.04.2018

 

Fundamental analysis: since mid-February, the currency pair has entered a relatively narrow price corridor of 132.000-129.000, and has not yet got out of it. For a year, from April 17, 2017, the medium – term trend is bullish. Perhaps what we are seeing now is attempts to reverse the trend. After the "peaks" on 137.503 price go down. There is no important news on the European Union and Japan today, but the BOE's Governor Mark Carney speech and Fed's Jerome H. Powell  Speech - should be taken into account. We all remember last year's volatility, including EUR, on Brexit news.

Technical analysis: long-term trend since 2012 is bullish. On the H1 chart, the «Alligator» indicator has «closed its jaws», indicating a state of uncertainty. Over the past few weeks, there have been three false breakouts of the resistance level at 131.500, and now the price is again near this mark.

 

 

Trading recommendations: near the strong resistance level and the psychologically important mark 131.500, powerful price movements are likely, we will try to use this to make a profit. Long positions - with a reliable breakdown of this level. Short positions when the price rebounds and moves below 130.500.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[AmegaFX]

Review USD/CAD 09.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: short-term bearish trend since mid-March - so far, the price breaks daily and weekly lows, stopping at 1.27319. The medium-term bullish trend, which began in September 2017, has not yet unfolded. Today, from the news on the Canadian dollar - a Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey.

Technical analysis: the M30 chart shows divergence, short-term bearish trend is not supported by volumes. On the same chart – the indicator "Alligator" last three days "closed jaws", in such cases advise to fix profit or wait for trend reversal. Having broken through the strong support level at 1.28150, the price went down, four days in a row updating the daily lows.

Trading recommendations: we expect the price to turn upwards. After all, the long-term trend is bullish, since 2011. A unidirectional movement of long-term, medium-term and short-term trends is a good signal, in our case, to buy. Cancel this scenario – if the authentic price break below 1.27319.

  

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[AmegaFX]

Review EUR/USD 10.04.2018

 

Fundamental analysis: the previous week for the EURUSD was mainly bearish, but from Friday 6 April there has been a slight upward movement. For two consecutive days, the price updates daily highs, eventually stopping at the mark of 1.2312. Of the important news today - the FOMC Member Robert Kaplan Speech.

 

Technical analysis: long - term trend-bearish since 2008. The price rebounded from the support level around 1.22148 and goes up. Opened was "fall" indicator "Alligator" again "closed jaw", in such cases, it is recommended to fix the profit and be ready to change the trend.

 

 

Trading recommendations: on the H4 chart visible support of the bearish trend call volumes, priority sales below 1.22900. If the price is fixed above 1.24000, we consider the possibility of opening long positions.

 

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[AmegaFX]

A comprehensive analysis of the USDCHF with 09.04.2018 for 13.04.2018

 

In our comprehensive weekly review we will look at the main fundamental and technical factors that will influence the USDCHF currency pair. So:

The previous week, from 2 to 6 April, was predominantly bullish:

 

 

The week was full of news events in the context of the "trade wars" between the United States and China. The dollar still looks confident, market quotes go well up, on Friday, April 6, they reached an important psychological level of 0.96500.

 

Technical analysis

The long-term trend in USDCHF is bearish, for 18 years, since 2000. Although there are some signs of a possible reversal, since 2011 the price slowly rises from 0.70157. Medium-term bullish trend – since February 2018, the long-term trend may be changing, turning from bearish to bullish.

Short - term (weekly) trend, as we have already noted – bullish - and therefore consider this forecast as the most likely.

 

Option # 1 – the continuation of the bullish trend

USDCHF pushed back from the resistance level 0.96500, before that consistently updating daily, weekly and monthly highs. This is clearly seen on the H4 chart. An important psychological point – such a long movement in the same direction often provokes traders to play on the rollback. The price seems too high, but in fact - is not. Psychologically comfortable to play on the rollback, and traders often project their desires on the real market situation-trying to see the beginning of a turn down - in each bearish candle.

 

 

Option # 2 - bearish trend

This option can be considered after a reliable breakdown of 0.95000. On the chart H1 shows the interweaving of moving averages in the area around 0.96500, and – "Alligator" begins to "shut your mouth" down.

 

 

Option # 3 – flat

The least likely option, given the recent strong volatility. However, if there are no strong trading signals for buying (selling) – we remain out of the market, waiting for the right moment.

 

Fundamental analysis

Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:

 

Tuesday 10 April

FOMC Member Robert Steven Kaplan Speech

 

Wednesday 11 April

·        Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (USA)

·        FOMC Minutes (USA)

 

 Thursday 12 April

·        FOMC Member Neel Kashkari Speech

·        Initial Jobless Claims (USA)

 

Friday 13 April

·        FOMC Member Robert Steven Kaplan Speech

·        JOLTS Job Openings (USA)

·        Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USA)

 

Before the news – be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 

[AmegaFX]

Review EUR/JPY 12.04.2018

 Fundamental analysis: for the second week in a row, this currency pair is powerfully going up, regularly updating daily highs. In General, the medium – term trend has been bullish since April 17, 2017. From the important news on the European Union today - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

 Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend since 2012. Over the past few days, there have been false breakouts of the resistance level at 132.500. Now the price is again near this mark, we are waiting for the development of the situation-whether it is another false breakout or a true reversal of the price down.

 

 Trading recommendations: long position – when a valid breakout of the level of 132.500, short position at the breakout of the two-day low at 131.461. The price for a long time without noticeable rollbacks goes up, you need to be ready for a sharp reversal.

 Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

[AmegaFX]

Review NZD/USD 13.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: the current week for the New Zealand dollar was bullish, and the price continues to confidently break through the daily highs, striving for 0.74000. Today's news on USD - JOLTS Job Openings, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and FOMC Member Robert Steven Kaplan Speech - can significantly affect the course.

Technical analysis: the short-term bullish trend, which started on March 20 from 0.71516, continues. The medium - term trend is also bullish, starting in November 2017 from 0.67779-has not yet unfolded. On the H4 chart, the «Alligator» indicator that has «opened its mouth» upwards is clearly visible.

 

Trading recommendations: long-term trend of NZDUSD is bullish since 2009. Thus, we are dealing with a strong trading signal - unidirectional movement of three trends. Priority - long positions, if the movement continues above 0.74000. Cancel this script and switching to short positions in the breakdown of the level 0.73455.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

[AmegaFX]

Review EUR/USD 16.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: last week, the EURUSD was traded mixed. The third day in a row does not come out of the narrow price corridor 1.23000 – 1.23500, it is not typical for this highly volatile currency pair. This happens usually in front of a powerful trend. Today is full of important news in the United States - Retail Sales ex Autos; Retail Sales control group; Retail Sales, and FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic speech.

Technical analysis: long-term trend - bearish since 2008. The price could not break the resistance level 1.24000. The «Alligator» indicator on H1 chart «closed its jaws» is a recommendation to fix the profit and be ready to change the trend.

Trading recommendations: due to the abundance of important news – the day is expected to be volatile, which means that there is a good opportunity to earn. We consider selling below 1.23000. At the breakout of the resistance at 1.24000.

 

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

[AmegaFX]

Review EUR/JPY 18.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: the third week in a row, the EURJPY is up, updating the weekly and daily highs. For the whole year, from April 17, 2017, the medium – term trend is bullish. Of the important news on the European Union today - the Consumer Price Index and Consumer Price Index - Core.

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend since 2012. It is not yet clear whether the resistance level at 132.500 is a true breakthrough. The H4 chart shows signs of a possible downtrend reversal: the bullish trend is no longer supported by volumes, the «Alligator» closes its mouth.

Trading recommendations: we need to let the situation prove itself. Long position – when a valid breakout of the level of 133.000, short position at the breakout of the two-day low at 132.090.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

[AmegaFX]

Review USD/JPY 20.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: observed short-term bullish trend since March 22, the upward movement from the "bottom" in the area 104.626. Today's news package on Japan - National Consumer Price Index -pushed market quotes up to 107.728. From the important news on the dollar today, the FOMC Member Williams speech.

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded.  Since November 2017 yen in the medium-term bearish trend. In the H4 chart, we note that bullish trend is no longer supported by volumes.

Trading recommendations: special attention near the resistance level of 107.500 and on the news is likely to rebound after a false breakout. With a reliable movement down below 107.000 move to short positions.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

[AmegaFX]

Review USD/CHF 24.04.2018

 Fundamental analysis: medium-term trend - for the third consecutive month bullish, from February 16, the Swiss franc pushed away from the "bottom" in the area of 0.91851 and confidently goes up. This indicates the strength of the trend. Important news today – new home sales in the United States.

 Technical analysis: long-term trend-bearish since 2000, 18 years. Perhaps now we are seeing a slow reversal, since 2011 the pair is trading in a relatively narrow (for MN chart) price range from 0.70444 to 1.03458. Note also that in the H4 chart the «Аlligator» indicator confidently "opened the fall" upwards, thereby confirming the bullish trend.

 

 Trading recommendations: we follow the medium – term bullish trend-long positions in priority, when the price moves above 0.98000. Cancel this script and switching to short positions when the authentic two-day break of at least 0.97060.

 Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

 Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

[AmegaFX]

Review NZD/USD 25.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: for the third week in a row for the New Zealand dollar becomes bearish, the price powerfully and practically without kickbacks goes down from the top near 0.73958. Today in New Zealand Bank holiday, in connection with the celebration of ANZAC Day (national holiday of Australia and New Zealand), because extreme volatility is not expected..

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend since 2009. The medium - term trend is also bullish, starting in November 2017 from 0.67779, it has not turned around yet. Let's pay attention to an important psychological moment, just on two charts – H4 and H1 – the price somehow rests on the bottom of the screen, it seems (but is not) too low, provoking inexperienced traders to play against the trend. In this situation, each bullish candle (on M15 or M30) can be taken for the beginning of a reversal – but we advise you not to hurry. The search for the "bottom" often ends in failure.

Trading recommendations: while the priority of short positions, follow the trend, consider the possibility of sales below 0.70000. Cancel this scenario and the transition to the long positions after the breakdown of the two-day minimum on 0.72090.

Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

[Guest andengireng]

 

CHFJPY today as we see, the price is going down fast in last 3 hours, it is your time to buy at 110.470 with potential TP up to 110.954. But be careful if price breaks 110.250, CHF will going down deeper up to 109.750

[Guest andengireng]

 

 

NZDUSD is still moving in bearish bias, seen trying to rise approaching the resistance area. For today's strategy you can again look for a confirmation of sell signal if a pull-back occurs to the reference area at the range 0.70794 with potential targets up to the range 0.70532. If the resistance 0.71154 breaks, it will turn the intraday bias to bullish and potentially will raise the NZD up to the range 0.71444.

[AmegaFX]

Review USD/JPY 27.04.2018

Fundamental analysis: for more than a month, since March 23, there is a short-term bullish trend, moving up from the "bottom" in the area of 104.626. Today from news on Japan – BoJ Interest Rate Decision and BoJ Press Conference. Important news for the USA: Gross Domestic Product Annualized, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Technical analysis: long-term bullish trend from 2012, which began at 76.073, is not unfolded.  Since November 2017 yen in the medium-term bearish trend. In the H4 chart, we note that the bullish trend is supported by volumes, the «Alligator» has opened its fall upwards.

 

Trading recommendations: at H1 chart, «Аlligator» is the second day of the "buried past", it is a signal to lock in profits. Special attention is paid to the resistance level of 109.500 and to the news, which is abundant today. With a reliable downward movement below the two - day low of 108.814-the transition to short positions.

 Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA

Source: Forex analysis from the broker AMEGA

[Guest andengireng]

 

 

GBPUSD today, as we see here, there is a long jump before closing market, so we can get some benefits from the rebound, you can buy it when the price back to 1.37610 with potential target up to 1.38521, don't forget to put your stop loss point 50 pips below your open price.