Daily Forex Analysis from FidelisCM

April 24, 2017

The main events on April 24, 2017

-The euro soared on Monday in Asia after an expected and welcomed outcome for the elections in France that led to a runoff between centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
-EUR/USD jumped 1.33% to 1.0871 after hitting five-month highs overnight on the French election outcome with Macron expected to win the election on May 7 after defeated rivals offered him support. USD/JPY rose 0.78% to 109.95, while AUD/USD gained 0.16% to 0.7555. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.05% to 99.66.
-Gold prices slumped in Asia on Monday as risk concerns eased after the French election went widely as expected, pitting centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen in a May 7 runoff. Gold dropped 0.90% to $1,277.35% a troy ounce.
-Oil prices recovered ground on Monday following last week's big losses, driven by expectations that OPEC will extend a pledge to cut output to cover all of 2017, although a relentless rise in U.S. drilling capped gains.
-WTI added 26 cents, or 0.5 percent, but were still below the $50 mark pierced on Friday at $49.88 a barrel. Brent rose 30 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $52.26 per barrel.

News for Today:
-The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
-Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.
-Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is to speak.

Overnight:
-Financial markets in Australia and New Zealand are to remain closed for the ANZAC Day holiday.

Main Events of the week:

Tuesday, April 25
The UK is to report on public sector borrowing.
The U.S. is to release data on consumer sentiment and new home sales.

Wednesday, April 26
Australia is to produce data on consumer price inflation.
Canada is to publish figures on retail sales.

Thursday, April 27
The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary inflation data.
The ECB is to announce its latest monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales.

Friday, April 28
Japan is to publish data on household spending and inflation.
New Zealand is to report on business confidence.
The UK is to release a preliminary estimate for first quarter economic growth.
Germany is to release figures on retail sales.
The euro zone is to publish a preliminary inflation estimate.
Canada is to release data on monthly economic growth.
The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be closely watched preliminary figures on first quarter growth, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.0780.
Our preference: long positions above 1.0780 with targets at 1.0900 & 1.0945 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.0780 look for further downside with 1.0740 & 1.0685 as targets.
Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Supports and resistances:
1.0975 ***
1.0945 ***
1.0900 ***
1.0830 Last
1.0780 ***
1.0740 ***
1.0685 ***

Review provided by broker Fidelis Capital Markets

April 25, 2017

The main events on April 25, 2017

-The dollar rebounded slightly in Asia Tuesday as investors keep a close eye on developments on the Korean peninsula as the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier-led battle group heads to the Sea of Japan.
-The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.06% to 98.97. USD/JPY changed hands at 109.7, up 0.01%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7561, down 0.12%. EUR/USD fell 0.02% to 1.0865. USD/CAD traded up 0.39% to 1.3553.
-Gold dipped slightly in Asia on Tuesday with markets on watch for developments on the Korean peninsula, but otherwise noting strong equity markets and investor confidence.
Gold eased 0.15% to $1,275.65 a troy ounce.
-Crude oil posted further gains in Asia on Tuesday ahead of industry estimates of crude and refined product inventories in the U.S. expected to show declines.
-WTI delivery rose 0.49% to $49.47 a barrel, while Brent gained 0.48% to $52.38 a barrel.

News for Today:
-The UK is to report on public sector borrowing.
-The U.S. is to release data on consumer sentiment and new home sales.

Overnight:
-Australia is to produce data on consumer price inflation.

Main Events of the week:

Wednesday, April 26
Canada is to publish figures on retail sales.

Thursday, April 27
The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary inflation data.
The ECB is to announce its latest monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales.

Friday, April 28
Japan is to publish data on household spending and inflation.
New Zealand is to report on business confidence.
The UK is to release a preliminary estimate for first quarter economic growth.
Germany is to release figures on retail sales.
The euro zone is to publish a preliminary inflation estimate.
Canada is to release data on monthly economic growth.
The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be closely watched preliminary figures on first quarter growth, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

EUR/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Our preference: long positions above 1.0820 with targets at 1.0900 & 1.0945 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.0820 look for further downside with 1.0780 & 1.0740 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
1.0975 ***
1.0945 ***
1.0900 ***
1.0865 Last
1.0820 ***
1.0780 ***
1.0740 ***

Review provided by broker Fidelis Capital Markets

April 26, 2017

The main events on April 26, 2017

The Australian and New Zealand dollars moved lower against their U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, after disappointing inflation data from Australia, although sentiment on the greenback was also vulnerable amid sustained uncertainties surrounding U.S. politics.

AUD/USD fell 0.28% to 0.7516. NZD/USD dropped 0.50% to trade at 0.6920, the lowest since April 12. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.09% at 98.63. USD/JPY changed hands at 111.24, up 0.14%.

Gold prices dipped slightly in Asia on Wednesday with no fresh support triggers in regional tensions on the Korean peninsula and caution ahead of tax plan details expected from the U.S. later in the day that if approved by Congress could set the pace for interest rate hikes this year by the Fed.
Gold eased 0.12% to $1,265.75 a troy ounce.

Oil prices resumed their downward trend on Wednesday as data showed a rise in U.S. crude inventories and record supplies in the rest of the world cast doubt on OPEC's ability to cut supplies and tighten the market.

WTI is down 13 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $49.43 per barrel. Brent is trading at $51.99 per barrel, down 11 cents, or 0.2 percent.

News for Today:
Canada is to publish figures on retail sales.

Overnight:
The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Main Events of the week:

Thursday, April 27
In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary inflation data.
The ECB is to announce its latest monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales.

Friday, April 28
Japan is to publish data on household spending and inflation.
New Zealand is to report on business confidence.
The UK is to release a preliminary estimate for first quarter economic growth.
Germany is to release figures on retail sales.
The euro zone is to publish a preliminary inflation estimate.
Canada is to release data on monthly economic growth.
The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be closely watched preliminary figures on first quarter growth, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.0900

Our preference: long positions above 1.0900 with targets at 1.0975 & 1.1010 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.0900 look for further downside with 1.0870 & 1.0840 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
1.1070 ***
1.1010 ***
1.0975 ***
1.0925 Last
1.0900 ***
1.0870 ***
1.0840 ***

Review provided by broker Fidelis Capital Markets

April 27, 2017

The main events on April 27, 2017

The dollar held gains against the yen on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump's tax plan offered no fresh surprises, slowing the greenback's rally, while the market awaited the European Central Bank's upcoming monetary policy decision.

USD/JPY changed hands at 111.14, up 0.10%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7487, up 0.19%. EUR/USD rose 0.06% to 1.0911. USD/CAD traded at 1.3533, down 0.63%.
The U.S. dollar index eased 0.10% to 98.75.

Gold prices rebounded mildly in Asia on Thursday as investors came in after a recent sharp dip following the French election results and as investors took positions on potential geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula where the U.S. has moved to setup a sophisticated anti-missile system to deter North Korea from launching ballistic missiles.
Gold rose 0.28% to $1,276.33 a troy ounce.

Oil prices dipped on Thursday, weighed down by a general sentiment of globally bloated markets, though traders said that prices seemed to have found support around current levels.

WTI is trading at $49.37 per barrel, down 25 cents, or 0.5 percent from their last close. WTI has lost around 8.5 percent in value from its April peak.

Brent is trading at $51.62 per barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.4 percent.

News for Today:
In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary inflation data.
The ECB is to announce its latest monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales.

Overnight:
Japan is to publish data on household spending and inflation.
New Zealand is to report on business confidence.

Main Events of the week:

Friday, April 28

The UK is to release a preliminary estimate for first quarter economic growth.
Germany is to release figures on retail sales.
The euro zone is to publish a preliminary inflation estimate.
Canada is to release data on monthly economic growth.
The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be closely watched preliminary figures on first quarter growth, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.0920.

Our preference: short positions below 1.0920 with targets at 1.0870 & 1.0840 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.0920 look for further upside with 1.0950 & 1.0975 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

Supports and resistances:
1.0975 ***
1.0950 ***
1.0920 ***
1.0890 Last
1.0870 ***
1.0840 ***
1.0815 ***

Review provided by broker Fidelis Capital Markets

July 24, 2017

NZDUSD July 24 2017 is still moving in a bullish. Choose to confirm the buy signal if there is correction to the reference area at the range0.74151 with potential up to the range 0.74575.