OctaFX_Farid Posted June 16, 2015 Author Share Posted June 16, 2015 EUR/USD sell on rallies – Westpac FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at Westpac recommend selling EUR/USD on strength. Key Quotes “EUR continues to hold on the firmer side of expectations. At least one EUR positive in recent weeks though looks set to fade - the bund sell-off. Historical analogs (the 2003 JGB sell off-off and the 2013 US treasury taper tantrum) suggest that we have finally approached the minimum time frame for thinking about some moderation in the pace of the sell-off with yields typically stabilising after rising 100-120bp two-three months after they bottomed”. “EUR gains on multiple crosses in recent weeks should thus begin to moderate, if not reverse. Higher yields and Greek worries should prompt a good pullback in the ZEW survey too while the FOMC is more likely than not to raise Sep Fed tightening expectations. All told the mix of event risk offers more headwinds than tailwinds for EUR. EUR/USD a sell into the 1.14-1.15 zone”. June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! HUF expected to pick up pace in the medium term – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Thomas Harr at Danske Bank sees the Hungarian currency appreciating in the medium term. Key Quotes “HUF has weakened recently on broader EUR strength and higher global yields. As a result, we have lifted our EUR/HUF forecasts moderately”. “We continue to believe that Hungary’s fairly strong external position is likely to be supportive for the HUF in the medium term”. “Furthermore, fairly strong growth and an expected pickup in inflation are likely to keep the carry on the forint relatively attractive. Therefore, we continue to expect medium-term appreciation of the forint”. June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Bunds could climb further – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank believe the German Bunds still have room for further upside. Key Quotes “The sell-off probably reflects profit taking after yields dropped to a historical low”. “The higher inflation numbers in May and stronger US data, which indicate that the Fed will hike rates in September, together with more upbeat recovery expectations for the eurozone have probably also contributed to higher yields”. “Furthermore, it seems that the ECB is not overly concerned about the rapid rise in yields and volatility”. “Poor market liquidity – due to tighter regulation – might have exaggerated the moves in yields this year”. “However, core inflation is still very low, the QE programme will continue unabated until September next year and Greece might be in focus for a prolonged period of time”. “Hence, any further upside we see for 10Y rates on a 12M horizon is mainly due to a spill-over effect from US rates, and on a 3M horizon we see basically unchanged yields in the 10Y segment”. “For lower maturities we see slight downside potential given our view that the ECB will keep policy rates negative for at least two more years”. June 16,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 CNY remains well supported – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Flemming Nielsen expects CNY to hold its ground against the backdrop of increasing pressures for a weaker currency. Key Quotes “It is still our view that China will not allow CNY to depreciate substantially despite data suggesting that growth continued to slow in early 2015”. “In our view, CNY remains well supported by an increasing trade balance surplus in the wake of a sharp decline in import prices and China’s relatively closed capital account, which limits capital outflow”. “China’s ambition to have CNY included in the SDR later in 2015 also suggests that it will behave like a responsible stakeholder ahead of the IMF decision this autumn”. “We do not expect the daily trading band to be widened until after the IMF decision”. “We still expect a moderate appreciation of CNY within the current trading band but a generally stronger USD limits the appreciation potential in the short run”. June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! GBP rallies on strong UK wage growth, EUR/GBP at 0.70 in 3M – Danske FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analyst at Danske Bank, Mikael Olai Milhøj, reviews the UK labour market data release and further forecast EUR/GBP to head lower towards 0.70 over the next 3 and 6 months. Key Quotes “The UK labour market statistics released today show that wage growth accelerated in April. Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses (three-month average) increased to 2.7% y/y in April from 2.3% in March (which was revised up from 2.2%) and thus wage growth is at its highest level since February 2009. Wage growth in the private sector is at 3.2% y/y. Higher wage growth is important for the timing of the first hike and thus today’s release supports our (non-consensus) call that Bank of England will hike already in November this year.” “The combination of increasing wage growth and very low inflation implies increasing real wage growth, which is at its highest level since September 2007. As inflation is mainly low due to the drop in energy and food prices, this supports private consumption and thus the UK recovery.” “The unemployment rate (3M) was unchanged at 5.5% in April in line with both our expectation and consensus. The unemployment rate is more or less back to normal (as measured by the Bank of England’s estimated medium-term equilibrium rate), which is an indication that the slack in the labour has diminished.” “The number of unemployed in April declined by 43,000 (3m/3m). This was lower than the increase in employment (+114,000 3m/3m), as the number of economic active persons increased by 71,000 3m/3m. From an economic perspective it is very positive that both employment and the workforce are increasing. However, the change in the claimant count level indicates that the decline in unemployment may have started to slow down.” “The GBP rallied on the strong UK wage growth. We target EUR/GBP at 0.70 in 3M and 6M but risks are that the cross temporarily undershoots our 3M and 6M estimates.” June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! SNB expected to hold policy, Norges Bank rate cut expected – BBH FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the SNB and Norges Bank policy decision scheduled to be released tomorrow. Key Quotes “The Swiss National Bank and Norway's central banks meet tomorrow. The SNB is not expected to change policy, but it may introduce an element of forward guidance, which would be aimed at ensuring investors that policy will be easy for a long time. Meanwhile, as an aside, the SNB's 7-day dollar repo rate ended higher at 64 bp from 62 bp.” “The outlook for the Norges Bank is a close call. Prior to last week's capex news, the market seemed comfortable with a 25 bp rate cut that would bring the deposit rate to 1.0%. We still think that is the risk.” June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 SNB expected to hold policy, Norges Bank rate cut expected – BBH FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the SNB and Norges Bank policy decision scheduled to be released tomorrow. Key Quotes “The Swiss National Bank and Norway's central banks meet tomorrow. The SNB is not expected to change policy, but it may introduce an element of forward guidance, which would be aimed at ensuring investors that policy will be easy for a long time. Meanwhile, as an aside, the SNB's 7-day dollar repo rate ended higher at 64 bp from 62 bp.” “The outlook for the Norges Bank is a close call. Prior to last week's capex news, the market seemed comfortable with a 25 bp rate cut that would bring the deposit rate to 1.0%. We still think that is the risk.” June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Dovish FOMC could fuel a drop in USD/CHF – FXStreet FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Omkar Godbole, sees downside potential for USD/CHF towards 0.9240 on a dovish FOMC outcome. Key Quotes “With no signs of Greece deal, EUR/CHF sell-off could continue. A Dovish FOMC would only add fuel to the CHF rally and lead to a drop in the USD/CHF pair. In light of the threat of a Greek default accompanied by a dovish FOMC, CHF could turn out to be the biggest gainer against the USD and Euro.” USD/CHF – Downtrend intact, further weakness below 0.9240 “The daily chart shows strong support at 0.9240 (50% Fib R of 0.8352-1.0128). The spot witnessed minor bounce from the same on couple of occasions since last week.” “The downtrend is intact as shown by falling trend line. A break below 0.9240 opens doors for 0.9071 (May 7 low) and 0.9031 (61.8% Fib R of 0.8352-1.0128).” “Weekly 50-MA currently at 0.9178 could act as immediate support.” June 17,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 USD/CAD around lows on US data FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar continues its march south on Thursday, relegating USD/CAD to session lows in the 1.2140 region. USD/CAD weaker on poor US CPI The pair lost some extra pips following the weaker data from the US inflation figures, with headline consumer prices coming in flat on a year to May and rising 1.7% on a yearly basis vs. 1.8% forecasted. Further data showed Initial Claims coming on the positive side, dropping more that estimated to 267K in the week ended on June 12th. Ahead in the session, the regional manufacturing survey by the Philly Fed is due preceding the Leading Indicator tracked by the Conference Board. USD/CAD levels to consider At the moment the pair is down 0.68% at 1.2144 with the next support at 1.2126 (low May 19) ahead of 1.1982 (low May 15) and finally 1.1920 (low May 14). On the flip side, a break above 1.2238 (high Jun.18) would aim for 1.2242 (Kijun Sen) and then 1.2253 (low Jun.11). June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! EUR/CHF expected to see 1.10, 12-M view – Danske FXStreet (Barcelona) - Christin Tuxen, PhD, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, expects EUR/CHF to see some relief later in the year as Eurozone growth and inflation picks up, and hence forecast the pair to see 1.10 levels over a 12 month view. Key Quotes “We maintain the view that the CHF could strengthen near term on Greece worries and ECB QE weighing on the EUR still; we see EUR/CHF at 1.04 in 1-3M.” “However, we emphasise that EUR/CHF (and hence the SNB) will get some relief later in the year when euro-zone growth and inflation pick up and the pricing of an eventual ECB exit moves to the fore as a result. The SNB will thus likely keep policy rates at - 0.75% for now. We continue to target EUR/CHF at 1.10 in 12M.” June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Eurogroup Meeting: Trilemma between austerity, reform and debt relief – BBH FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team comments on the ongoing Greece crisis, noting that Merkel is now appearing to take control of the negotiations just as Tsipras did by removing the Greece FM. Key Quotes “It is nearly a foregone conclusion that today’s Eurogroup meeting will not provide closure for the Greek crisis. Merkel’s speech to the German parliament today showed no sign that the creditors are yielding. The EU Summit a week from now is the next real opportunity. This is important. Just as Greece’s Tsipras had removed his finance minister from negotiations in the hope that it created a less antagonistic atmosphere, so too now does Merkel appear to be taking control of the negotiations from her finance minister.” “Known for her caution, and moving at the last possible moment, as she did with Greece back in 2010-2011, Merkel may have waited too long this time as positions have hardened, and trust has been further eroded. Ultimately, national interests are involved. Germany is acting like a creditor and Greece is acting like a debtor. When the shoes were on different feet, Germany acted like a debtor and Greece a creditor. Each drapes their position in moralistic terms.” “We continue to believe that a Greek exit would be more costly for Europe and Greece than a compromise here. There is a trilemma playing out between, austerity, reform, and debt relief.” June 18,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shafiek Abrahams Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 It’s really unbelievable to see market move how it’s doing in last few weeks, I have made great profits and this has been one of the biggest months for me in terms of profits, but I can’t let this happiness share with me alone because the big part of this success has to go with this lovely company OctaFX. I have been a really regular follower of these analysis and I believe that anyone who has followed it will know how good this is and on personal note I have unrealistic results of above 85% in period from Jan to now, it’s a long time so the consistency that I have got just because of this is mind boggling not just for me but anyone watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Reasons for a stronger dollar – JP Morgan FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at JP Morgan exposed their reasoning backing a firmer USD in the upcoming periods. Key Quotes “The reasons we still project further USD strength beginning at some point this summer are the following:” “(1) the labour market should create inflation pressures that the Fed would start responding to probably in September;” “(2) as the Fed responds, it will still be the only central bank hiking in H2;” “(3) most vulnerabilities of the non-USD currencies (high valuations, negative real policy rates, current account deficits) persist two years after the taper tantrum; and” “(4) illiquidity could exaggerate bond and FX moves in an otherwise dull Fed cycle where modest and gradual seem the buzzwords”. June 22,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! EUR/CHF rises to fresh session high of 1.0472 FXStreet (Mumbai) - The shared currency is gaining ground against the safe haven CHF, taking the EUR/CHF pair to a fresh session high of 1.0472 levels. EUR/CHF takes out hourly 100-MA resistance During the move higher, the pair took out the hourly 100-MA resistance located at 1.0456. The common currency is being bought against the safe haven currency after the EU chief expressed confidence that a deal with Greece would be reached by this weekend. Moreover, the EU chief’s statement helped weaken the bid tone on the Swiss Franc, leading to an unwinding of a safe haven CHF longs. EUR/CHF Technical Levels The immediate resistance is located at 1.0474 (hourly 200-MA), above which the pair could target 1.048. On the flip side, a break below 1.0464 could see the pair re-test its hourly 50-MA located at 1.0451. June 22,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Housing Data reaction: USD/CAD trades at daily highs FXStreet (Barranquilla) - The USD/CAD is trading now on the positive field following the upbeat US housing data; After falling 50 pips in the European session, the US Dollar finally found buyers against the Canadian Dollar as the pair bounced off 1.2215 to price at daily highs above 1.2280. Existing home sales rose 5.1% in May, well above expected. Annual rate is now 5.35M, the highest since August 2013. On the other hand, Europe consumer confidence was reported down to -5.6 in June; the worse since February. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2282, up 0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2288 and low at 1.2217. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. USD/CAD Forecast Anil Panchal from Admiral Markets said in the latest USD/CAD Forecast Poll that the "failure to break 1.2170-60 horizontal mark could pullback the pair towards 1.2400 region." In addition, according to JPMorgan, Labor market creating inflationary pressures; Fed rate hike in September; most vulnerabilities of the non-USD; and illiquidity made the case for a stronger dollar. USD/CAD Level If the USD/CAD manages to extend gains, resistances are at 1.2300, 1.2350 and 1.2360. To the downside, supports are at 1.2215, 1.2200 and 1.2140. June 22,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 No formal decision on Greece expected to come from today’s summit FXStreet (Córdoba) - Heading into the European leaders summit, French President Hollande and German Chancellor Merkel agreed that there is potential for a Greek deal, but latest proposals are insufficient to make a decision today. French President Francois Hollande said that no formal decision will come from today’s summit but it will open the way for resolution. Hollande's comments echoed German Chancellor Angela Merkel's who stated that there is potential for a deal with Greece, but proposals are insufficient to make a decision today. June 22,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 US durable goods orders fall 1.8% in May FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data reported by the US commerce department showed today that orders for durable goods in May dropped 1.8% after a downwardly revised 1.5% fall in April. The headline figure was expected to drop 1.0% in May. Though the headline figure dropped, the orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, rose 0.3%. Orders for such goods were projected to rise 0.5%. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.4% last month after a 0.3% decrease in April. The drop in the headline figure was largely due to a drop in the volatile aircraft category. Orders for business equipments continued to rise for the second month, which is slightly positive. June 23,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! USD/CAD tests lows near 1.2300 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After an ephemeral visit to the 1.2300 neighborhood, USD/CAD has now returned to the 1.2340 area. USD/CAD recovers post-US data The pair has quickly reversed the knee-jerk to the vicinity of 1.2300 the figure after US Durable Goods Orders missed expectations during the last month. In fact, Orders contracted 1.8% on a monthly basis vs. a 0.5% gain forecast-ed, while Orders excluding the Transportation sector advanced 0.5% MoM vs. 0.6% anticipated. Next of note in the pair will be New Home Sales (525K exp.) followed by the flash Markit’s manufacturing PMI for the current month. USD/CAD levels to consider At the moment the pair is up 0.29% at 1.2347 and a breakout of 1.2360 (high Jun.15) would aim for 1.2442 (high Jun.9) and then 1.2472 (high Jun.8). On the other hand, the immediate support lines up at 1.2307 (low Jun.23) ahead of 1.2127 (low Jun.18) and finally 1.2072 (76.4% of 1.1920-1.2563). June 23,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 UK BBA Mortgage Approvals rise in May, miss expectations FXStreet (Mumbai) - The number of loans for house purchases increased in May, driven by post-election political and economic certainty, and increased buyers' appetite. In May, the number of mortgage approvals rose to 42,530, up from 42,020 in April, but less than estimated, according to the British Banking Association (BBA) report published on Wednesday. Richard Woolhouse, chief economist at the BBA, state, "The increase in mortgage approvals this month is consistent with the trend we’ve seen since the start of the year. The numbers show that the property market remains buoyant after the general election. Fierce competition between lenders means that there are some great mortgage deals available from the high street banks." June 24,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! EUR/USD keeps the 1.12 handle pre-Eurogroup FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The common currency keeps the buoyant tone on Wednesday, sending EUR/USD to test highs near 1.1240 ahead of the Eurogroup meeting. Greece remains at the top of the agenda in today’s Eurogroup meeting to be held in Brussels, with Greek PM A.Tsipras expected to previously meet with Juncker, Draghi and Lagarde. Further news saw the ECB extending its emergency funding to the Greek banks under its ELA mechanism, all in light of the persistent deterioration of the Greek banking system in response to the increasing deposits withdrawals by Greek savers. In the data space, the German IFO came in below consensus in all of its components, although spot paid little attention, if any, to the release. EUR/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is up 0.38% at 1.1210 and a breakout of 1.1236 (high Jun.23) would open the door to 1.1349 (high Jun.23) and finally 1.1404 (high Jun.22). On the other hand, the next support lines up at 1.1154 (low Jun.24) followed by 1.1135 (low Jun.23) and then 1.1087 (low Jun.8). June 24,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! German IFO hurt by Greece – ING FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst at ING Bank Carsten Brzeski assessed the recent poor results from the German IFO. Key Quotes “Creeping Greek fears. The number one topic in Germany has finally reached German businesses: the Greek crisis and fears of a Grexit. After a long period of stable business optimism, Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, dropped to 107.4 in June, from 108.5 in May”. “Even if the doses has been reduced somewhat, the German economy is still on steroids. Despite some recent rebounds, the weak euro exchange rate and low energy prices are still artificially extending the last phase of a very positive reform-growth cycle”. “Even after today’s drop, the level of the Ifo remains comfortably high. In fact, comparing the levels of the second quarter with the levels of the first quarter suggests a growth acceleration of the German economy in Q2, confirming our positive growth outlook”. “All in all, today’s Ifo index shows that German businesses are not immune against the Greek crisis and that Grexit fears are not only discussed in the local pub but also in boardrooms. However, for the time being, these fears should not (yet) have a negative impact on the economy”. June 24,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 USD/CHF: CHF strengthens on safe-haven appeal FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Swiss franc remains heavily bid versus the American dollar in the mid-European session, driving USD/CHF deeper in to losses just above 0.93 handle. The Swiss currency emerged the biggest gainer this session so far mainly on the back of increased demand for safety assets as Greek debt deal lurks. USD/CHF drops from 0.9375 Currently, the USD/CHF pair trades -0.35% lower at 0.9332, recovering slightly from fresh session lows printed at 0.9319. The Swiss franc gained upside momentum versus the greenback largely on the back of generalized risk-on moods amid uncertainty surrounding Greece with markets speculating increased Grexit fears. While traders flock to safe-havens such as CHF ahead of Euro group meeting tomorrow. Moreover, EUR/USD resilience also supports the franc, knocking-off USD/CHF almost 50-pips lower. Meanwhile, the dollar index which measures the greenback’s strength against its major peers, now trades muted around 95.35, near session lows at 95.28. Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank notes, “USD/CHF has started to erode the 2 month downtrend. A close above here should be enough to trigger a recovery to the 0.9543 end of May high and the top of the cloud resistance at 0.9600.” While she recommends buying on dips to 0.9320 and further add at 0.9320. USD/CHF Technical Levels To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.9375 (Today’s High) levels and above which it could extend gains to 0.9408 (June 11 High) levels. To the downside, immediate support might be located at 0.9300 levels and below that at 0.9272 (June 15 Low) levels. June 26,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! EUR/GBP negative below 0.7324 – Commerzbank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The short term perspective for the cross remains bearish below the 6-month downtrend currently at 0.7324. Key Quotes “EUR/GBP is sitting on the .7074 support line and is currently finding some support there. Intraday rallies are indicated to terminate circa .7150 for losses to the .7057 May low and the .7015 March low”. “Below here lies the .7000 psychological support and the .6985 6 year down channel”. “Rallies will find initial resistance at .7214, the 55 day ma. This guards the .7324 resistance line and the tougher resistance at .7385/91 – this is the March high and the 78.6% retracement”. June 26,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! EU preparing an emergency plan if Greek talks fail – MNI FXStreet (Mumbai) - MNI is reporting that the European Union is preparing an emergency plan if Greek rejects the deal offer on Saturday. The report says Greece’s creditors will not back down from their proposal and the proposal is for an extension till the end of November. Meanwhile, German finance minister Schaeuble said the Eurozone must not risk credibility by spending beyond limits. June 26,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sauberlime Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Hi, where can I read forecasts? I checked around and I'm beginning to think that there's none available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 29, 2015 Author Share Posted June 29, 2015 GBP/USD recovers to 1.5700 FXStreet (Mumbai) - GBP/USD keeps losses in the European session, recovering from fresh session lows, as the US dollar paused its upsurge and gave back half its gains versus its major peers, lending helping hand to the GBP bulls. While ongoing Greek concerns continue to boost the risk-off moods untouched, keeping the pound in red. GBP/USD pressured amid Greek uncertainty The GBP/USD pair trades -0.31% lower at 1.5702, recovering from fresh session lows reached at 1.5685 last hours. The cable manages to fight back and erased partial losses mainly on US dollar retreat across the board. The dollar index which measures the greenback’s strength against its major peers, now trades 0.37% higher at 95.95, retracing from 96.60 highs. The USD bulls took charge earlier this session and pushed GBP/USD lower as the greenback strengthened on tumbling EUR/USD on Greek concerns. Later in the day, the cable will track US dollar moves amid lack of UK fundamentals while US pending home sales and fresh Greek updates will be closely watched. GBP/USD Levels to consider The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5739 (Today’s High) above which gains could be extended to 1.5800 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5685 (Today’s Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.5623 (June 17 Low) levels. June 29,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 29, 2015 Author Share Posted June 29, 2015 ECB rejects ELA ceiling increase for Greek banks FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to media reports, Greece had requested the European Central Bank to increase the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) ceiling for Greek banks by €6 billion but it was rejected. That leaves emergency funding for Greek institutions at € 89 billion until the referendum. Greek banks are closed this week as Athens imposes capital controls unable to face increasing withdraws after negotiations with the Eurogroup broke down last Saturday when the Greek government called a referendum on the bailout program. Media is reporting the a Greek government official saying Greek pension withdrawals to be limited to €240. June 29,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! GBP/USD near term risk lies to the downside – Scotiabank FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, sees near-term risks for GBP/USD tilted to the downside, with technicals signalling towards a short-term bearish outlook for the pair. Key Quotes “GBP is soft, down a modest 0.3% from Friday’s close on the back of broader market sentiment driven by Greece. Near term risk lies to the downside, however we look to the potential for some offsetting gains in response to Tuesday’s final GDP revision for Q1. PMI’s will round out the remainder of the week, beginning with the manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.” “GBPUSD short-term technicals: bearish—Monday’s candle hints to limited upside potential as we note a sizeable upper shadow. A rising wedge formation has taken shape since mid-May, its lower bound currently seen around 1.5500. Rising wedges are typically resolved to the downside.” June 29,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! AUD/USD looks ahead at Chinese manufacturing PMI's - BBH FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted the forthcoming Chinese data that will be an influential factor in markets and subsequently could be effecting the price of AUD/USD. Key Quotes: "China reports official manufacturing PMI Wednesday, expected at 50.4 vs. 50.2 in May. " "We note that the HSBC flash June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6 from 49.2 final in May." "The stock market swoon is surely raising concerns." "Regardless of the market gyrations, however, we thought that this latest round of stimulus was the right response to soft economic data. More stimulus is likely to be seen in H2." June 29,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 Greece asks for 2-year ESM bailout program and debt restructuring FXStreet (Córdoba) - Greece requests a 2-year bailout program from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) with parallel restructuring of debt, according to Prime Minister Tsipras office. June 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! SEB: EUR/JPY needs to push above 137.20/138.80 to get off bearish phase – eFXnews FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Technical Strategy Team at SEB, believes that EUR/JPY requires to reclaim the 137.20/138.80 21day EMA band to ease bearish pressure, as noted by eFXnews. Key Quotes “The short-term (bullish) "Cloud" and the short-term downside stretch (as defined by the deviation away from its monthly average) were respected. A long lower shadow and a high session close puts pressure back on the 21day exponentially weighted moving average band (137.20/138.80) which in reality also has to be reclaimed to get the pair off the bearish edge.” This forecast has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews. June 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Neutral outlook on PLN – BAML FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The outlook for the Polish zloty remains on the neutral side so far, suggested strategists at BAML. Key Quotes “We are on track to our 3.5% growth forecast for 2015. Industrial production growth recovered to 5.3% yoy in May from a soft April reading of 2.7% in seasonally and working-day adjusted terms, maintaining the growth momentum at the beginning of the year”. “The robust 1Q growth rate, with recent PLN weakness and an increase in political uncertainty, implies the National Bank of Poland will stay neutral. The Monetary Policy Council has been sending strong signals to the market about its intention to end the easing cycle. The recent PLN weakness eased the MPC’s concerns about higher risks of inflation undershooting. Our baseline has the policy rate steady at 1.50% through 2016, and we note that the risk of easing has fallen significantly”. “Bund volatility and Greece talks are a risk to sentiment in the region, including that for PLN. We stay neutral outright but hold a short PLN/HUF position, as the cross seems overvalued from a longer-term perspective”. June 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 USD/CHF climbs above 0.9330 amid new talks FXStreet (Córdoba) - The US dollar gained momentum as traders focus on the London fixing and pushed USD/CHF to break the short-term resistance area located around 0.9330. The pair jumped to 0.9380. Currently trades at 0.9360/65, near the area it opened the week. The Greek saga continues with now a proposal from Greece to extend the bailout with loans to be used exclusively to debt payments. A conference call will take place later today, announced the Eurogroup leader. USD/CHF technical levels Yesterday the pair dropped almost 200 pips from the highs and bottomed at 0.9242. Today made the reverse move and rose 140 pips from 0.9245 to 0.9380. To the upside USD/CHF could face resistance at 0.9380 and above here at 0.9400 and 0.9425/30 (June 29 high). On the flip side, immediate support might now lie at 0.9330, followed by 0.9285 and 0.9240/50 (daily low). June 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! 'No way' the Eurogroup will release funds to Greece before tonight's deadline FXStreet (Córdoba) - Eurozone officials say that there is "no way" Eurogroup will release funds to Greece to repay the IMF € 1.6 billion before tonight's deadline. June 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! EUR/CHF rises to 1.0450, above last week close FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/CHF rose back above 1.0400 and climbed to 1.0451 reaching a fresh daily high amid a weak Swiss franc. The pair remains near the highs. EUR and Greece Greek officials put forward a new proposal to its creditors for a new bailout program for 2 years, with funds used to debt payments. According to reports Angela Merkel said that they will not negotiate anything new before the Greek referendum. The euro was unaffected by the latest reports while the Swissy is among the worst performers in the currency market during the American session. EUR/CHF levels to watch The recent rally was capped by 1.0450, above the next resistance could be located at 1.0480 followed by 1.0500. On the opposite direction support might lie at 1.0370, 1.0310 and 1.0280. June 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 Tsipras urges Greek public to vote 'NO' to creditors terms - Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted Tsipras recent plea to the Greek public. Key Quotes: "In a television address PM Tsipras has told the Greek people that “they will not throw us out of the Eurozone...because the cost is immense”. An estimated 12,000 people gathered outside Athen’s Syntagma Square to support their leader in his bid to persuade the Greek people to vote ‘no’ to an acceptance of the creditors terms in Sunday’s referendum." "Tsipras is taking the view that a ‘no’ vote would strengthen Greece’s negotiating position. Meanwhile some European officials are indicating that this referendum may be seen as a straight choice between Greek choosing to remain in or out of the Eurozone." June 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! DXY pushes higher around 95.50 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, has recovered from the dip to sub-95.00 levels and is now printing session tops in the 95.50/55 band. DXY firmer as bid tone re-emerges The dollar has managed to recover the initial bid tone after dropping to session lows near 94.80, helped by month/quarter-end flows and the still confusion scenario in Greece ahead of the decisive referendum on Sunday. Data wise in the US economy, the S&P/Case-Shiller index and the Chicago PMI both missed expectations today, while Consumer Confidence surpassed the median for the current month. DXY relevant levels As of writing the index is advancing 0.69% at 95.44 and a break above 96.39 (high Jun. 29) would open the door to 96.54 (high Jun.8) and finally 96.91 (high Jun.5). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 94.30 (low Jun.23) ahead of 93.81 (low Jun.22) and then 93.57 (low Jun.18). June 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! DXY pushes higher around 95.50 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, has recovered from the dip to sub-95.00 levels and is now printing session tops in the 95.50/55 band. DXY firmer as bid tone re-emerges The dollar has managed to recover the initial bid tone after dropping to session lows near 94.80, helped by month/quarter-end flows and the still confusion scenario in Greece ahead of the decisive referendum on Sunday. Data wise in the US economy, the S&P/Case-Shiller index and the Chicago PMI both missed expectations today, while Consumer Confidence surpassed the median for the current month. DXY relevant levels As of writing the index is advancing 0.69% at 95.44 and a break above 96.39 (high Jun. 29) would open the door to 96.54 (high Jun.8) and finally 96.91 (high Jun.5). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 94.30 (low Jun.23) ahead of 93.81 (low Jun.22) and then 93.57 (low Jun.18). June 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 1, 2015 Author Share Posted July 1, 2015 DAX jumps over 2% on Tsipras bailout FXStreet (Mumbai) - Germany’s benchmark index, the DAX bounced-back sharply, snapping previous declines and rallied higher tracking other European indices following media reports that Greece is ready to accept bailout conditions, although with certain changes. Currently, the DAX 30 trades nearly 2.22% higher at 11188.30 levels, swinging back higher above 11k marker. The German stocks halted its two-day decline and rebounded higher as euro zone officials are set to discuss Greece once again, with Athens reportedly stating it will accept its creditors' bailout conditions proposed last weekend. The index trades with a clear positive market breadth with all stocks on the winning end. Volkswagen AG leads the index, up 2.90% followed by Daimler AG, gaining 2.80%. Deutsche bank is also recording a 2.73% gain on the day. DAX Technical Levels The index has an immediate resistance at 11299.61. Meanwhile, support is seen at 11000 levels and 10806 levels. July 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Referendum will go ahead – Greek government official FXStreet (Mumbai) - As per Reuters reports, a Greek government official said that Greece will go ahead with the July 5 referendum and said the negotiations will continue after the vote. Earlier today, the FT reported that Greek PM is willing to accept all the demands put forward by the creditors, which triggered speculation that a referendum may not be held. Meanwhile, Germany’s Schaeuble said that he has not even read the latest proposal from Greece, while stating that there is no scope for talks before the referendum. July 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 GBP/USD posts daily highs after disappointing US nonfarm payrolls FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD saw a short-lived spike and printed fresh daily highs after the release of disappointing US nonfarm payrolls report. Weak US employment data weighs on the dollar US economy created 223,000 new jobs in June, missing expectations of 230,000 and below a downwardly revised gain of 254,000 in May. The unemployment rate edged lower to 5.3% from 5.5% the previous month but wages were flat and the participation fell. Separated data showed US initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 281,000 in the week ended June 27, above the 270,000 expected. The greenback fell across the board as downbeat employment data weighed on expectations the Fed could begin raising rates later this year. GBP/USD rose to a high of 1.5636 before quickly pulling back to mid-range levels. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.5608, virtually unchanged on the day. July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Positioning for USD/JPY upside using options ahead of near-term risk events – Nomura FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura, position for USD/JPY upside into the September FOMC meeting using options, expecting the pair to break above 125.86. Key Quotes “We are adding fresh USD/JPY long exposures via 3m call spread (125.50- 128.00), which cost 0.46% at a spot reference of 123.17, with a max payout of 1.95%. We commit $100K to the position, in our model $100mn portfolio. Ahead of the September FOMC, we expect USD/JPY to break the recent high (125.86), and are recommending to position for that.” July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Treasury yields drop as US wage growth stalls in June FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Treasuries gained, pushing the yields lower after the payrolls report in the US showed the pace of job addition sowed in June, while wage growth stalled, raising doubts whether the economy would be able to sustain rate hikes. Rate hike expectations drop Fed funds futures show there is a 27% chance the central bank will increase its benchmark rate from near zero in September, down from 35% Wednesday. Consequently, the yield turned lower. The 2-year yield, which mimics short-term interest rate expectations, now trades 4.7 basis points lower at 0.641%. The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 4 basis points to 2.38%. The 30-year yield also fell to 3.179%. The interest rate sensitive 2-year yield now trades 4.7 basis points lower at 0.641%. The pace of job additions slowed, although the number stayed below 200K. However, the growth in the average hourly earnings stalled, which raised questions whether the spike in the personal sending seen last month shall last. July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 USD/CHF might see an attempt towards 0.9530/43 – Commerzbank FXStreet (Barcelona) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, believes that USD/CHF might make an upside move towards 0.9530/43 and even 0.9581. Key Quotes “USD/CHF is looking a bit perkier as it has completely ignored the key day reversal to the downside and has eroded the near term resistance line to head into the middle of the cloud. We would allow for an attempt on the 200 day ma and the May high at .9530/43 and the top of the cloud at .9581.” “Current Position: None. Recommended Trade: Attempt tiny longs .9375, add .9340, stop .9240” July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! IMF: Greece needs €50 billion in new funds and large scale debt relief FXStreet (Córdoba) - While Greeks set up for the referendum on whether to accept more austerity measures demanded by creditors in exchange for aid, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) described Greek debt as “unsustainable” and said the country needs large scale debt relief. In a report, the IMF said Greece needs €50 billion in new funds over the next three years and large scale debt relief to create “a breathing space” and stabilise the economy. The institution suggested it will not back up a third Greek bailout unless it included both a commitment to economic reform and debt haircuts. The IMF estimates that even if Greece had primary surplus of 2.5% and real GDP growth of 1%, a significant haircut would still be required and warns that Greek GDP forecasts are subject to very considerable downside risks. Extract from IMF document, via The Guardian: “Even with concessional financing through 2018, debt would remain very high for decades and highly vulnerable to shocks.” “Given the fragile debt dynamics, further concessions are necessary to restore debt sustainability. As an illustration, one option for recovering sustainability would be to extend the grace period to 20 years and the amortization period to 40 years on existing EU loans and to provide new official sector loans to cover financing needs falling due on similar terms at least through 2018”, says the IMF. July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! EUR/GBP: Headed for 0.7206 - CB FXStreet (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank noted the technical conditions surrounding EUR/GBP. Key Quotes: "EUR/GBP has recently charted a key day reversal from the base of the 0.6985 6 year down channel. This was our medium downside target. Intraday Elliott wave counts are suggesting that we allow for recovery to the 55 day ma at 0.7206 but I have little beyond that." "Dips lower will find minor support at 0.7080/60 ahead of 0.6985. Failure here will target the 0.6571/41 2007 low. Above 0.7212 will allow for a deeper recovery to the 0.7314 2015 resistance line." July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted July 2, 2015 Author Share Posted July 2, 2015 EUR/USD stuck around 1.1100 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is retaining today’s gains vs. the greenback, with EUR/USD trading comfortably in the 1.1100 area. EUR/USD upside capped at 1.1120 The pair could not sustain the post-Payrolls spike to session tops around 1.1120, leaving the bulk of the trade in the 1.1080/1.1100 band instead. Poor results from the US labour market during June failed to ignite a more durable bull run in the pair, which remains more dependent on the outcome of Sunday’s referendum in Greece. Moving on to Friday’s docket in Euroland, the final figures of the Services PMIs are due ahead of EMU’s Retail Sales for the month of May (0.1% MoM exp.). EUR/USD levels to consider The pair is now advancing 0.39% at 1.1096 with the next resistance at 1.1171 (high Jul.1) followed by 1.1234 (high Jun.24) and finally 1.1244 (high Jun.30). On the downside, a breach of 1.1032 (low Jul.2) would target 1.1000 (psychological level) en route to 1.0955 (low Jun.29). July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! RBA to stay on the sidelines next week – TDS FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Rich Kelly, Strategist at TD Securities, expects the RBA to leave rates on hold at its next meeting. Key Quotes “We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 2% at next week’s meeting and for the bank to exclude an explicit easing bias”. “The statement should be a cut and paste of the June statement, so there should be no surprises”. “The RBA remains in a period of inactivity with no fundamental catalyst to cut over the next 2-3 months”. “Data has not been weak enough to warrant an RBA shift, even if underlying Q2 CPI (out on July 22nd) comes near the RBA’s 2.25% forecast or slightly below”. “However the Bank is likely to reaffirm its view on the AUD stating that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary.” July 02,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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