OctaFX_Farid Posted May 22, 2014 Author Share Posted May 22, 2014 USD/CHF is disillusioned at 0.8950 resistance FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/CHF plunged from the resistance level of 0.8950 to its current lows of 0.8928 PMI to digest The yesterday’s weakness of the euro gave the pair another reason to rise, and proved the still strong correlation between the EUR and CHF moves. Today, the pair may get some more catalysts to move on, as the EMU data is scheduled for release. The market is closely watching any new evidence of fragile recovery in euro zone, thus, any indication of weakness in core or periphery economies may support the demand on USD/CHF with initial target at 0.8950 resistance. What are today’s key USD/CHF levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 0.8932 with support below at 0.890978, 0.8862 and 0.8827, with resistance above at 0.8967, 0.9002, and 0.9037. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA at 0.8905 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 0.8867. Hourly RSI is bullish at 56. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY a drop to 100.76 is not ruled out - UOB FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Market Strategy Team at UOB Group does not discard another bearish attempt to the key area of 100.75. Key Quotes "The low of 100.81 low yesterday was just a few pips shy of our 100.75 target. While the mid-term outlook still appears to be bearish, the short-term downward momentum has waned considerably with the strong rally from the low". "Expect choppy short-term trading in the next 1-2 days but as long as the key resistant at 102.10 is not taken out, we are not ruling out another stab lower towards 100.75". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM) registered at 0, below expectations (4) in May Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD: Downtrend remains intact - UBS FXStreet (Córdoba) - The UBS analyst team notes that the downtrend in EUR/USD remains intact, with worries about the European elections next weekend weighing on the currency. Key Quotes "The Eurozone current account fell further, confirming our view that the stabilization in Spain, Italy and other peripheral countries brings stronger import demand and reduces the support for the euro". "The fall of EUR/USD during the Wednesday trading session was however more driven by worries about the European elections next weekend and other soft factors. Nevertheless, it is a nice confirmation that the downtrend in EUR/USD remains intact". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 22, 2014 Author Share Posted May 22, 2014 GBP/JPY hovering around 171.50 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/JPY is consolidating above 171.00 after soaring on Wednesday and still holds some bullish momentum. During the Asian session the pair reached a fresh weekly high at 171.86, extending the gains extending the rally that started yesterday at 169.75. On European hours the Pound lost momentum across the board pushing the GBP/JPY to the downside. Price found support at 171.20 and bounced to the upside. Currently is testing levels above 171.50, attempting to approach daily highs GBP/JPY range-bound On a wider perspective price continues to move in a range, with a slightly upside bias but facing strong resistance around 173.50; and below here at 172.00. To the downside, price has been rejected from levels under 170.00. The support to the current range lies at 169.40 and then 167.70 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 22, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 CBoT cut its refi rate - BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, observed the CBoT is reversing its last emergency rate hike. Key Quotes "The Central Bank of Turkey even judged yesterday that it now has some scope to begin reversing the aggressive emergency monetary tightening which was delivered at the end of January. The CBoT’s actions proved successful at helping to stabilize the lira which has since retraced most of its sharp sell off which was recorded between December 2013 and January 2014." "The CBoT decided yesterday to lower their benchmark repurchase rate by 0.50 point to 9.50% citing reduced uncertainty and a decline in Turkey’s risk premium as the main justification for the move. The CBoT also stated that it will maintain a tight monetary policy stance until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook." "Inflation is soon expected to peak although it remained elevated at 9.4% in April, and is now expected by the CBoT to be at 7.6% by the end of 2014. With the real policy rate adjusted for inflation only just in positive territory now further CBoT monetary easing would leave the lira more exposed if financial market conditions were to become more volatile again. However, current low volatility conditions still remain supportive for carry currencies like the lira in the near-term." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (2%) in April Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Canada: CPI (Apr) rose 2.0% YoY FXStreet (Edinburgh) -Canadian consumer prices rose 2.0% on a year to April and 0.3% inter-month, matching expectations. The Bank of Canada Core CPI rose 1.4% over the last twelve months and 0.2% MoM. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 23, 2014 Author Share Posted May 23, 2014 Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) rose from previous 0.2% to 0.3% in 1Q Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD steadies as UK heads into a long weekend FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD entered a consolidation phase during the New York session and has spent the last hours trading within a narrow range. The GBP/USD dropped roughly half a cent and pulled back toward the 1.6825 area after failing to overcome 1.6875 during the European trade. No UK data was released today and with new home sales as the highlight of the US calendar until Tuesday, the Cable has been left searching for catalysts ahead of the long weekends in UK and US. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6840 area, 0.16% below its opening price, but still on track to close the week higher after receiving strong boost on the back of much better than expected UK retail sales Wednesday. GBP/USD technical outlook Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that the technical picture is bearish according to short-term charts. “Below 1.6770 the pair has a pretty clear path down to 1.6730 past week low, but further losses are not yet likely”. Bednarik locates next support levels at 1.6810, 1.6770 and 1.6730, while she sees resistances at 1.6885, 1.6920 and 1.6960. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 24, 2014 Author Share Posted May 24, 2014 What would a negative deposit rate achieve? - Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that given that there are still imbalances in the way liquidity is distributed across the banking system in the eurozone, a negative deposit rate may speed up the process of defragmentation. “Net policy lending by the Eurosystem to banks in Spain and Italy is still significant, whereas it is negative in some core member states, such as Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, where deposits at the central bank outstrip their borrowings from the ECB”. “Germany and Luxembourg are also the main counterparts in terms of having net Target-2 claims”. “We believe it is quite unlikely that core banks will suddenly start lending more to banks in the periphery should the ECB introduce a small negative deposit rate, but we would envision downward pressure on interbank deposit rates and short-term instruments such as T-bills from the highest rated member states, as banks with a large liquidity surplus seek alternatives to paying for their excess reserves”. “Moreover, global banks, which have access to overnight facilities at other central banks that still pay for excess liquidity, may be incentivized to enter cross currency swaps and put their excess reserves at the Federal Reserve or Bank of England, for example. Therefore, at the margin, we believe a negative deposit rate could also put further downward pressure on the euro exchange rate – which of course does appear to be one of the aims of such a policy measure (although the ECB wouldn’t explicitly admit so)”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPy gains to remain capped - TDS FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at tD Securities explained that they look for USD/JPY gains to remain capped at or near the cloud resistance base (currently 102.44) from here. "USD/JPY’s decline stalled around the 200-day MA and the 2014 low just below 101 this week; the large “doji” candle that price action developed mid-week around these technically sensitive support points will allow for a modest rebound in the USD in the near-term but we do not (yet, at least) have any conviction that the recovery in the USD is sustainable". "Underlying momentum indicators are still negatively aligned on the longer-term studies and the USD’s overall position on the daily cloud chart remains negative". We look for USD/JPY gains to remain capped at or near the cloud resistance base (currently 102.44) from here. Only a sustained push higher through the mid/upper 102s would imply that there is more recovery potential at the moment. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Lower Canada relative productivity linked with CAD upside – BTMU FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that the productivity growth has long been a concern in Canada, where it has been running lower than that of the US. Key Quotes: “The differential has actually widened substantially since the end of the tech boom”. “From an FX perspective, generally such a negative productivity differential implies longer-term currency weakness”. “However, the relatively low productivity growth in Canada has been consistent with a stronger CAD (see the Chart of the day, which shows one reduced-form illustration of the link between USD/CAD changes and relative Canadian productivity), despite the usual relationship between weaker productivity and a weaker currency over the longer-term”. “The persistent relative under performance of Canadian productivity relative to that in the US is consistent with our own longer-term expectations that broader macro conditions should lead to some further Canadian dollar weakness this year, but with some resumption of strength afterward”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Colombia Trade Balance rose from previous $-505.6M to $-276.2M in March Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 26, 2014 Author Share Posted May 26, 2014 EUR/USD edges higher, eyes on 1.3650 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency remains buoyant on Monday, now lifting the EUR/USD to post fresh intraday highs around 1.3645/50. EUR/USD in 2-day highs The pair is partially trimming the recent sharp pullback to the vicinity of 1.3600 the figure, managing to recover the mid-1.3600s. Next of note in the euro area will be the M3 Money Supply figures due on Wednesday ahead of confidence/sentiment gauges on Thursday. However, the main scenario remains unchanged: market participants continue to assess the potential easing measures by the ECB, as we get closer to the June 5th meeting. “Despite oversold conditions, the EUR down-move still appears incomplete. However, waning downward momentum suggests that a sustained break below 1.3600 is unlikely for now. Only a move above 1.3655 will indicate that an interim low is place”, observed Que Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group. EUR/USD key levels As of writing the pair is up 0.04% at 1.3635 and a surpass of 1.3658 (high May 23) would open the door to 1.3688 (high May 22) and finally 1.3723 (high May 21). On the flip side, the initial support aligns at 1.3616 (low May 23) followed by 1.3585 (low Feb.13) ahead of 1.3563 (low Feb.12). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD deflates to 1.6830 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is following the market mood on Monday, with the GBP/USD trading in a narrow range around 1.6830. GBP/USD extends the correction The pair seems to have found decent support near 1.6800 the figure, coming down from last week’s tops above the 1.6900 handle. Looking forward, it will be a light week in terms of data releases in the UK economy: BBA Mortgage Approvals (Tuesday), Nationwide Prices (Wednesday) and the Gfk Consumer Confidence survey (Friday). In the view of Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, “The fact that sterling retains its place at the best performing developed world currency over the past 12 months suggests there is a lot of good news priced-in. Long positions and the tendency for the market to allow itself to be carried away suggest that the pound is likely to be subject to bouts of profit-taking in the months ahead”. GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is up 0.03% at 1..6837 with the immediate resistance at 1.6875 (high May 23) ahead of 1.6917 (high May 22) and finally 1.6922 (high May 21). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6813(low May 23) would expose 1.6802 (low May 20) and then 1.6784 (low May 16). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EMEA EM Express: Ukrainian stocks soar on succesful presidential election FXStreet (Łódź) - As widely expected, billionaire chocolate tycoon Petro Poroshenko won a decisive victory in the Ukrainian presidential election, with former PM Yulia Tymoshenko finishing on a distant second position. After the release of exit polls Poroshenko pledget to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine as soon as possible and announced that his first trip would be to the regions overcome by unrest, including the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, where pro-Russian separatists took control of governemnt buildings and many roads.. In the 1 million city of Donetsk nobody was allowed to vote and in Luhannsk most of the polling stations were closed. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also commmented on the Ukrainian vote, saying that Moscow was ready to hold talks with Poroshenko, but called for toning down the military operation against the separatists in the eastern part of the country. "Taking into account the expression of will that has taken place, which we respect, we will be prepared to establish pragmatic, equitable dialogue on the existing foundation - by which I mean the fulfillment of all existing agreements, including in trade and the gas sector," Lavrov assured. Poroshenko's victory was a positive development for both the Ukrainian and the Russian bond markets, where yeilds were seen dropping. Russia’s Micex Index climbed by 1.2% to 1,455.59 while the Ukrainian Equities Index soared 4.9% to 1,233.73, the most worldwide. It was the highest level recorded by the index in two years. Economic data The Polish Central Statistical Office informed on Monday that on a monthly basis Unemployment has decreased to 13% in April from 13.5% recorded in March, slightly missing expectations of a decline to 12.9%. Polish annual Retail Sales grew 8.4% in April, up from the 3.1% increase the previous month and below forecasts of +9.1%. Turkish Foreign Arrivals jumped to 8.2% in April, from 0.6% in March, according to data published by TurkStat. Technicals The Ukrainian hryvnia was up 0.3% at 11.915 against the greenback on Monday. On Friday, ahead of the elections, the USD/UAH daily FXStreet Trend Index was strongly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 56 at the last close. The Russian ruble was little changed against the central bank’s target dollar-euro basket at 39.7695, as well as against the dollar, at 34.17. It fell against the euro by 0.1% to 46.6355. On Friday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI was at 26 at the last close, and has climbed to 59 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 5355 pips, with ATR (14) shri OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Latin America EM Express: Zuluaga wins the first round of the Colombian presidential election FXStreet (Łódź) - Colombia held presidential elections on Sunday and exit polls suggest that Former Finance Minister Oscar Ivan Zuluaga has won in the first round with a 29.3% support, which is a blow for incumbent Juan Manuel Santos who received only a 25.7% backing. The runoff election will take place on June 15. Both rivals for the post have similar policies, although Zuluaga calls for adopting a tougher stance against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). In case of his victory the ongoing peace talks could be broken off. Economic data On Friday Brazil released Current Account data which showed a widening to a $ -8.29B deficit in April from $ -6.25B in March, above expectations of a $ -6.70B result. Foreign Direct Investment increased to $5.23B from $5.00B, below forecasts of $5.40B. Argentina's annual preliminary Industrial Production dropped 4% in April, up from the 5.9% decrease in March and beating expectations of a 6.1% fall. Colombia's Trade Balance numbers revealed that the $-505.6M deficit seen in March narrowed to $-276.2M in April On Monday Mexican flash Trade Balance data showed that the $1.027B surplus recorded in March narrowed to $0.510B in April, against consensus of a shift to a $-0.758B deficit. Technicals The Colombian peso was little changed at 1,909.76 against the dollar on Monday. The Brazilian real on the other hand was boosted by the successful Ukrainian election and increased rose a three week low on Monday, strengthening by 0.1% 2.2217 against the greenback. On Friday the USD/BRL daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish and the OB/OS Index was neutral. RSI stood at 47 at the last close, and has slid to 46 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 98 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 161 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.2999, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.2228. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 South Africa Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): -0.6% (1Q) vs previous 3.8% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 28, 2014 Author Share Posted May 28, 2014 ECB's Mersch: All three rates could be cut next week FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking on panel in Tokyo on Wednesday ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch signaled that the ECB was comfortable with adopting a combination of conventional as well as unconventional measures at the upcoming meeting on June 5. The ECB policymaker suggested that if the Governing Council decided to cut rates they would most probably affect all three rates: the main refi rate, the deposit as well as the marginal lending facility. He said that the exchange rate plays an important role as far as inflation is concerned, but that the ECB didn't have an exchange rate objective. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 28, 2014 Author Share Posted May 28, 2014 EUR/USD warming up for 1.3600? FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is extending its intraday decline on Wednesday, with the EUR/USD putting to the test the key support at 1.3600. EUR/USD in multi-week lows The pair is losing ground for the fourth consecutive week after hitting ytd tops just below the 1.4000 handle, drifting back to levels last seen in early February near the critical 1.3600 support. The demand for the EUR remains subdued amidst speculations of further easing by the ECB in its next meeting on June 5th. “EUR dipped overnight to retest the recent low at 1.3615. While the undertone is negative, the rebound from the low has resulted in a mixed outlook for today. Expect 1.3670/75 to limit any further recovery but a sustained down-move is likely only upon a clear break below 1.3610/15”, noted Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group. EUR/USD relevant levels As of writing the pair is losing 0.16% at 1.3612 with the next support at 1.3585 (low Feb.13) ahead of 1.3563 (low Feb.12) and finally 1.3552 9low Feb.7). On the upside, a break above 1.3638 (high May 28) would open the door to 1.3669 (high May 27) and then 1.3672 (Tenkan Sen). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Redbook index (MoM) fell from previous 1% to 0.7% in May 23 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates ECB Financial Stability Review: Eurozone banks seen strengthening, but risks remain FXStreet (Łódź) - In the ECB Financial Stability Review, released on Wednesday, the central bank said that the Eurozone economic recovery is expected to remain uneven and continue at a slow pace. Sentiment could be undermined by political tensions in Ukraine and a possible growth slowdown in China, the report stated. It was stressed however that the advancing preparations for the banking union in the euro area and the financial institutions' efforts to strengthen their balance sheets have reduced stress in the banking sector considerably. Furthermore, the intensification of the search for yields has been beneficial for Eurozone banks and Member States so far. The three main risks for financial stability in the Eurozone during the next 18 months, listed in the report include an “abrupt reversal of the global search for yield, amid pockets of illiquidity and likely asset price misalignments,” a “continuing weak bank profitability and balance sheet stress in a low inflation and low growth environment,” as well as “re-emergence of sovereign debt sustainability concerns, stemming from insufficient common backstops, stalling policy reforms, and a prolonged period of low nominal growth.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 29, 2014 Author Share Posted May 29, 2014 Another failing bounce in the EUR/USD; back below 1.3600 The EUR/USD failed again to bounce back above the 1.3600 area following the weak US GDP number and after a brief jump from 1.3585 to trade as high as 1.3625, the EUR/USD returned below the 1.3600 in the latest few minutes. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3599, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3627 and low at 1.3586. EUR/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish. EUR/USD sentiment "The hourly chart shows 20 SMA offering short term support around the figure and with a shy bullish slope, while indicators turn lower above their midlines," affirms Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet. "In the 4 hours chart technical indicators present a mild bearish tone while 20 SMA caps the upside around the daily high." Jamie Coleman from FXBeat commented that the EUR/USD is back below 1.3600 as "the dollar index is taking another peek at 80.58/60. That level is key for further broad USD strength." Coleman points that the pair support "remains clustered in the 1.3550/70 zone; sovereign bids have been rumored ahead of that area this morning." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 29, 2014 Author Share Posted May 29, 2014 United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (1%) in April Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates NZD/USD tumbles to 0.8450 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD broke broke below 0.8470 and fell quickly to 0.8450 reaching the lowest price since March 12. The Kiwi is falling sharply across the board. After bottoming the NZD/USD rebounded slightly and currently trades at 0.8468, down 0.29% for the day so far. The pair is falling for the second day in a row, accumulating a decline of a hundred pips. NZD/USD technical outlook The pair weakened earlier after being unable to hold above 0.8700 and accelerated to the downside after breaking short term support levels. Now headed toward the second daily close in a row below 0.8500, the outlook remains bearish. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States 7-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 2.317% to 2.01% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 30, 2014 Author Share Posted May 30, 2014 GBP/USD: recovery falters FXStreet (Córdoba) - The recovery of the GBP/USD from 1-month lows proved to be short-lived after the Cable stalled at 1.6757 during the European session. The GBP/USD failed to overcome the 1.6760 area and came under renewed pressure, retracing most of its intraday gains ahead of the American opening. No UK data is scheduled for today but a bunch of US key figures are on the calendar while 3 FOMC member are set to speak, which could offer some catalyst to the pair. GBP/USD technical levels The GBP/USD is currently trading at the 1.6725/30 zone, still 0.09% above its opening price, with immediate resistances lining up at 1.6757 (May 30 high), 1.6768 (50-day SMA) and 1.6815 (May 28 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.6692 (May 29 low), 1.6663 (100-day SMA) and 1.6603 (Apr 8 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 30, 2014 Author Share Posted May 30, 2014 EUR/USD edging higher, eyes on 1.3620 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency looks to put further distance from the key support at 1.3600 on Friday, taking the EUR/USD to test the upper band around 1.3615/20. EUR/USD indifferent after data The pair has practically paid no attention to today’s mixed results from the German retail sales and lower than expected consumer prices in Italy, managing to keep the trade above the 1.3600 handle so far. However, the heavy trade is set to prevail, as the ECB meeting is closer. “Recent euro weakness in advance of next week’s ECB policy meeting highlights that monetary easing expectations have likely already been discounted. For euro weakness to accelerate after next week’s meeting, it would likely require the ECB to either adopt some form of asset purchases or indicate that they are becoming a more realistic policy option in the near-term”, suggested the research team at BTMU. EUR/USD key levels At the moment the pair is up 0.08% at 1.3614 and a break above 1.3638 (high May 28) would open the door to 1.3644 (200-d MA) and finally 1.3655 (Tenkan Sen). On the downside, the immediate support aligns at 1.3586 (low May 29) followed by 1.3585 (low Feb.13) and then 1.3563 (low Feb.12). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index above expectations (61) in May: Actual (65.5) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD: recovery capped by 200-day SMA FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD saw a short-lived spike to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session but lacked follow-through and surrendered gains. The dollar also managed to temper losses after the US Chicago PMI came in better-than-expected in May. The PMI rose to 65.5 rather than the expected fall to 61.0 from 63.0 points scored in April. The EUR/USD reached 2-day high of 1.3638 but was halted by the 200-day SMA. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3620, still up 0.15% on the day. However, the euro is set to end the week little changed and the month with a 1.7% loss, pressured by perspectives the ECB might ease its policy further when it meets on Jun 5th. The ECB meeting is not the only major event next week. The Eurozone will release CPI figures and the US will publish the nonfarm payrolls report. EUR/USD technical levels In terms of technical levels, if the EUR/USD breaks decisively above 1.3638 (200-day SMA), next resistances could be found at 1.3668 (May 27 high) and 1.3700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3585 (May 29 low), 1.3561 (feb 12 low) and 1.3520 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2757/1.3993). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 31, 2014 Author Share Posted May 31, 2014 EUR/USD: recovery capped by 200-day SMA FXStreet (Córdoba) - In another quiet US session, Greenback consolidated losses versus the European currencies and finished unchanged against commodity currencies. Over the week, the best performer where the Aussie, the Loonie and the Yen. The EUR/USD traded all day above 1.3600 but found resistance at 1.3650 and pulled back to finish hovering around 1.3630, with marginal weekly gains. The Euro managed to stabilized across the board after falling for four consecutive weeks ahead of next Thursday ECB meeting. The GBP/USD climbed on Friday, trimming weekly losses and approached 1.6800. The Pound was among the worst performers during the week and finished lower versus the other European currencies. The Yen pulled back across the board on Friday, but ended the week higher, with moderate gains. The USD/JPY finished below 102.00 but far from Thursday's lows. The US dollar lost momentum on Friday after the release of US economic data. During May Greenback had an acceptable performance rising against most traded currencies, except the Yen, the Loonie and the Aussie. Gold fell again on Friday reaching fresh 4-month lows at $1,242 and posted the lowest monthly close since January. Crude oil fell again on Friday, losing $1,5 for the week, but managed to hold above $102 a barrel. Main headlines in the American session ">Gold drops further, bottoms at $1,242 USD/CHF erases weekly gains ">EUR/USD deflates from highs USD/JPY rises above 101.70 ">USD/CAD jumps after Canadian GDP miss Fed's Pianalto: Inflation is a two-sided threat OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 AUD/USD keeps session lows FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar remains unable to pick up pace on Monday, confining the AUD/USD to the lower band of the intraday range around 0.9260. AUD/USD hurt by data Poor data from Building Permits in Oz during April prompted investors to sell the Aussie overnight, sending spot to session lows just above 0.9240. Further data showed TD Securities Inflation generally in line with expectations (2.9% YoY, 0.3% MoM) although the release had no incidence on the pair. “The key question is whether domestic data can save the Aussie dollar from sliding iron ore prices. .. But 0.9200/10 remains very strong support, having held since March. And if the RBA’s language on Tue is little changed and Q1 GDP is near our expectations (3.2% y/y), the Aussie probably won’t test that key support. Broad range still 0.92-0.94, albeit with most action likely to be in the lower half of the range near term”, observed the research team at Westpac Global Strategy Group. AUD/USD levels to watch As of writing the pair is losing 0.57% at 0.9258 with the next support at 0.9210 (low May 29) ahead of 0.9208 (low May 21) and then 0.9179 (200-d MA). On the flip side, a break above 0.9303 (50-d MA) would open the door to 0.9330 (high May 30) and finally 0.9336 (high May 20). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Session Recap: Euro weighed by PMIs FXStreet (Córdoba) - It was a lively session for the Euro amid Eurozone PMIs releases as investors await the ECB meeting Thursday. The EUR/USD was weighed by disappointing PMIs across the Eurozone and soft German inflation figures ahead of the Eurozone CPI tomorrow. The EUR/USD remains vulnerable near recent lows ahead of teh European Central Bank policy meeting Thursday. Consensus is now calling for cuts of the 3 main rates. However, with much of this move already priced in, EUR bears might want to take profits if the bank does not surprise. The EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.3593 before quickly bouncing back above 1.3600. Elsewhere, majors had a quiet session. The GBP/USD was steady around 1.6750 while the USD/JPY steadied around 102.00 after rising during Asian hours. The USD/CHF moved in tandem (although inversely) with the EUR/USD and reached a 5-day high of 0.8985 before pulling back. Meanwhile, the Aussie is among the worst performers weighed by weak Aus building permits. The AUD/USD hit a 4-day low of 0.9242 before bouncing slightly. During the New York session watch for US Markit manufacturing PMI, the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending. Main Headlines in Europe: What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank European stocks open broadly higher Fed's Evans: Inflation expected to remain below 2% for some time Germany: PMI Manufacturing slides to 52.3 in May EMU: PMI Manufacturing drops more than expected in May OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 Germany: CPI (May) at 0.9% YoY FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The preliminary May CPI in Germany showed that consumer prices expanded at an annual pace of 0.9%, missing forecasts for 1.1% gain and lower than the 1.3% previous. On a monthly basis, prices contracted 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected. The HICP rose 0.6% over the last twelve months and contracted 0.3% inter-month. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR shorts increased last week - Societe Generale FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, noted the increase in EUR short positions, according to the last CFTC report. Key Quotes "CFTC positioning data for last Tuesday show that EUR shorts increased. They are back to levels which preceded the Euro bottoming-out after the last ECB rate cut in November, though relative to a longer-term history the short position is small." "A 10-bp cut in both Refi and Deposit rates is universally expected this week, and the market is merrily muttering about what more the ECB can do. The result is that we may see a lack of trend for the next few days." "SG Economists are looking for a targeted LTRO, an end to SMP sterilisation, and a EUR 300bn asset purchase programme, targeted at the private sector. That would amount to a slightly more aggressive package than the market is priced for." "This would be risk-friendly, helping peripheral and financial sector debt and equity, rather than moving EUR/USD very far, though we remain seller of the Euro vs PLN, TRY, GBP and NOK and a short-covering rally in EUR/USD, would be a chance to sell. In the meantime, we watch peripheral European PMIs this morning and preliminary German CPI data for May. On which note, so far, a soft Saxony figure." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States ISM Prices Paid above forecasts (57) in May: Actual (60) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD hits 1.0900 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now picking up pace vs. its Canadian counterpart on Monday, lifting the USD/CAD to post multi-day highs around 1.0900 the figure. USD/CAD in 2-week highs The pair managed to leave behind the overnight consolidation around 1.0840 to briefly climb above the 1.0900 handle after mixed data from the US docket: Markit manufacturing PMI surprised investors to the upside in May (56.4 act. vs. 55.5 exp.) while the ISM Manufacturing dropped to 53.2 vs. 55.4 forecasted. “The pair has struggled to sustain upward momentum away from the trend line resistance-turned-support drawn off of the March peak. Gains above 1.0868 would open up a run into 1.0940/50; conversely, a break below 1.0819 would enable a slide towards 1.0750”, commented Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities. USD/CAD key levels At the moment the pair is up 0.45% at 1.0895 and a break above 1.0942 (high May 21) ahead of 1.0962 (61.8% of 1.1053-1.0814) and finally 1.1001 (21-w MA). On the flip side, the initial support lines up at 1.0814 (low May 8) ahead of 1.0762 (low Jan.8) and then 1.0737 (high Dec.20). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 USD/JPY stumbles after ISM manufacturing FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY tripped and fell toward the 102.00 area after the ISM manufacturing index came in well below market’s expectations. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 53.2 in May from 54.9 in April. That fell short of the 55.8 forecast although readings above 50.0 point to expansion in the sector. The USD/JPY backed away from a 2-week high of 102.28 and slid to 102.04 before finding support. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.10 area, still 0.26% above its opening price. USD/JPY technical perspective “In the 4 hours chart indicators also present a strong upward momentum that will prevail as long as buyers surge on dips down to 102.00”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “Daily chart shows 100 SMA around 102.35, offering intraday resistance: accelerations above this latter should lead to the 102.70/103.00 price zone”. USD/JPY levels to watch In terms of technical levels, if the USD/JPY next resistances could be found at 102.27/28 (May 14 & June 2 highs) and 102.35/37 (May 13 high/100-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 101.75 (Jun 2 low), 101.42 (May 29 low) and 101.35 (May 22 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD likely to consolidate either side of 1.1000 - Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank commented that the BoC is likely to reiterate its neutral stance next Wednesday, which would support a range bound environment for USD/CAD either side of 1.1000. Key Quotes “BoC is likely to reiterate its neutral stance, emphasizing that interest rates are on hold for an extended period. Friday’s Q1 GDP was disappointing, with soft exports and business investment suggesting that the anticipated shift in the economy continues to prove elusive. However with headline inflation at 2% it will be hard for the BoC to signal anything dovish”. “The market is pricing in a balanced outlook for interest rates, with no probability of a hike or cut priced in. For CAD this is likely to support a somewhat range bound environment; with USD/CAD either side of 1.10”. “USD/CAD short‐term technicals: mixed—and range bound warns that for near‐term traders there is better risk/reward elsewhere. Support lies at the recent low of 1.0814 while resistance lies at the recent high of 1.0942”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Singapore Purchasing Managers Index down to 50.8 in May from previous 51.1 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) registered at 47.7 above expectations (46.5) in June Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 USD/CAD remains above 1.0900, BoC eyed FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is appreciating against the Canadian dollar on Wednesday, pushing the USD/CAD to the 1.0925/30 area ahead of the BoC statement. USD/CAD looks to the BoC The pair keeps alive the recent rally from the 1.0830 region backed by a better momentum of the US dollar, despite the decreasing yields in the US money markets. In the data front, Canadian trade balance showed a $0.64 billion deficit in April, missing expectations for a $0.20 billion surplus and down from March’s $0.77 billion surplus. Next of note in Canada, the BoC will hold its monetary policy meeting, although there will be no press conference by Governor Poloz. “The BoC is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.0%. Thus, the main focus will be on the characterization of the outlook portrayed in the statement, as it will have to balance the disappointing outturn for Q1 real GDP with inflation running ahead of what was forecast in the April MPR”, commented Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities. USD/CAD levels to consider The pair is now up 0.14% at 1.0924 with the next resistance at 1.0962 (61.8% of 1.1053-1.0814) ahead of 1.1001 (21-w MA) and then 1.1014 (low Apr.25). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0814 (low May 8) would target 1.0762 (low Jan.8) en route to 1.0737 (high Dec.20). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates BoC keeps interest rate steady at 1% in May FXStreet (Łódź) - As widely expected, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% at its May monetary policy meeting. The Bank Rate remained correspondingly at 1.25% and the deposit rate at 0.75%. In a statement released after the decision was made known, the BoC said that inflation rose towards the 2% target earlier than projected in the April Monetary Policy Report. The central bank noted the weakness of global growth in the first quarter of the year, adding that Canada grew “at a modest rate” due to “severe weather and supply constraints.” Finally the BoC commented that “weighing recent higher inflation readings against slightly increased risks to economic growth leaves the downside risks to the inflation outlook as important as before,” while “the risks associated with household imbalances remain elevated” and therefore the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Welcome to ECB day, expect a rate cut - Societe Generale FXStreet (London) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale is expecting a rate cut at todays ECB meet. Key Quotes "Welcome to ECB day. We expect a rate cut (Refi to 0.1%, Deposit Facility to -0.1%) liquidity injection (end of SMP sterilisation and targeted LTRO) and a modest (Eur 300bn) private sector asset buying programme." "This is more aggressive than our understanding of the consensus view. Rate cuts are fully priced in, but there is no widespread agreement about liquidity measures." "Markets are however, pricing in the possibility that the ECB President delivers a risk-friendly message successfully. The reaction to failure to cut rates at all would be bigger than even the announcement a large-scale asset purchase programme (EUR 1trn plus)." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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