official Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

OctaFX_Farid · April 2, 2014

US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at -2.379M, missing forecasts (1.3M) in March 28

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Apr 02, 2014

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USD/JPY for 104?

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 103.75, up 0.11% on the day, having posted a daily high at 103.95 and low at 103.58.

The dollar is trading at its best level against the Japanese since last January, as noted by the Global Currency Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman. “

“It seems that the combination of Japan’s retail sales tax hike, easing of tensions in both Turkey and Russia, and the firm US data and higher US Treasury yields have lifted the dollar to near JPY104”.

US data positive

ADP Employment Change (March) read 191K vs 195K expected. This is positive as it was close to expectations, spurring hopes for a firm US employment report on Friday. The consensus estimate there for Nonfarm payrolls on Friday is for a rise of 200,000. Then, US factory orders rose 1.6% in February, and the market was expecting just a 1.2% rise.

USD/JPY Levels

Spot is presently trading at 103.75, and next resistance can be seen at 103.79 (Weekly Classic R2), 103.89 (Daily Classic R1), 103.95 (Daily High), 104.13 (Daily Classic R2) and 104.53 (Daily Classic R3). Next support to the downside can be found at 103.73 (Yesterday's High), 103.70 (Hourly 20 EMA), 103.65 (Daily Open), 103.65 (Monthly High) and 103.65 (Weekly High).

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Apr 02, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 3, 2014

Draghi's press conference: Further monetary easing not excluded

FXStreet (Łódź) - Following the ECB Governing Council's decision to keep rates unchanged at the April meeting, president Mario Draghi said at the subsequent press conference that the moderate recovery in the Eurozone is progressing as expected.

• “We will monitor all developments and consider all available instruments.”

• Further monetary easing is not excluded, Draghi signals.

• The ECB head reiterates the the forward guidance policy of maintaining interest rates at current or lower levels for an extended period of time

• The Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using unconventional instruments within its mandate.

• Inflation expected to remain low for a prolonged period of time.

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Apr 03, 2014

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ECB's Draghi signals QE could be used to fight stubborn low inflation

FXStreet (Łódź) - As widely expected, the ECB Governing Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged in April, despite the threat of deflation hovering over the Eurozone. ECB head Mario Draghi said during the subsequent press conference that various unconventional measures were considered during the monetary policy meeting.

Draghi said that the Governing Council saw inflation remaining at low levels for an extended period of time before it would gradually start rising towards the ECB's target. He attributed the steady fall in inflation since 2012 to the decrease in food and energy prices.

The CPI number in March were surprising and the April result could be uncertain due to the late Easter holiday, which increases demand for services, so the Governing Council is waiting for more data, the ECB chief said.

The Governing Council extensively discussed lowering the refinancing rate, introducing negative deposit rates as well as QE, Draghi revealed. The negative deposit rate was considered in context of maintaining price stability and not pushing down the exchange rate, which is an important factor but not a policy target. This comment pushed the euro down from from high above $1.38 to a low near $1.3740.

Furthermore, Draghi said that the Governing Council was unanimous in its commitment to using both conventional andunconventional instruments to fight low inflation, not just deflation.

Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy deplored ECB's lack of action pointing out that even if “the ECB is correct and deflation does not materialize for the region as a whole, the persistence of lower than expected inflation and simply low inflation itself has a detrimental effect on investment decisions, growth, and the weight of the debt burden.”

Trevor Greetham Director of Asset Allocation and Portfolio Manager of Fidelity’s Multi Asset funds was also critical of ECB's announcement: “This is more monetary-policy-on-the-cheap. The aim is to talk down the euro without actually doing anything.”

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Apr 03, 2014

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GBP/JPY breaks below 172.35

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is currently trading lower against the Japanese Yen as the GBP/JPY is extending losses from 173.17 priced overnight to break below 172.35 and posts fresh lows for today around 172.25.

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading at 172.33, down 0.22% on the day, having posted a daily high at 173.17 and low at 172.25. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.

RSI is neutral at 45.25, up from 41.99 at the last hour close, while ADX is trending at 32.78, up from 20.84 previous.

GBP/JPY levels to watch

Below the 172.35, next resistances can be seen at 172.67 (Hourly 20 EMA), 172.73 (Weekly High) and 172.78 (Monthly High). Supports can be found at 172.25 (Daily Low), 172.25 (Yesterday's Low) and 172.05 (Hourly 100 SMA).

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Apr 03, 2014

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Latin America EM Express: Brazil central bank raises Selic rate to 11%

In line with market expectations, Brazil's central bank decided to hike its benchmark Selic rate by 25 bp to 11% on Wednesday. It also signaled its readiness to raise it further at the upcoming monetary policy meetings.

According to the official statement the central bank's monetary policy committee, or Copom, "will monitor the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario until its next meeting, in order to then define the next steps in its monetary policy strategy."

Brazil's central bank has been tightening policy since April last year, beginning with a 25 bp raise which was follwoed by six consecutibe 50 bp increases and finally this months 25 bp hike.

The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team believe that even though the Copom "left the door open to further hikes" it would rather not do that "especially if BRL remains around these levels."

"The next meeting is May 28, and a move then will depend on how the inflation readings come in," the analysts add.

Economic data

Mexico released Consumer Confidence data on Thursday, which showed an improvement to 88.8 in March, from 84.5 seen in February.

Technicals

The USD/BRL dropped by 0.38% to 2.2782 on Wednesday. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was strongly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI sat at 31 at the last close, and has headed higher to 55 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 349 pips, with ATR (14) at 277 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.3076 , while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.3102.

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Apr 03, 2014

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AUD/USD drifting back after poor performances

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9232, down -0.17% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9256 and low at 0.9206.

AUD/USD overnight action

AUD/USD had taken a dive from 0.9250 and putting pressure on 0.9210 when Retail Sales from Australia read lower than consensus today at 0.2% vs 0.3% and 1.2% previous. However, there was a turnaround now when the pair spiked to 0.9240 on Chinese data. China services activity growth strengthened to a four-month high, after the HSBC China Services Business Activity Index recorded a rise of 51.9 in March, up from 51.0 in February.

BNZ research team said they had been seeing other Australian data print strongly. “The AUD was supported by stellar retail sales, employment, and export data outturns over the month of March, and the RBA’s apparent unwillingness to stand in its way has emboldened its buyers. Also, the RBA declined to talk the AUD lower, leaving the currency atop the league table.

US data wrap effecting AUD/USD

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 28) arrived disappointingly at 326k vs 317k expected.

Continuing Jobless Claims (Mar 21) came in better than expected at 2.836M vs 2.840M consensus.

Trade Balance (Feb) was up and worse at $-42.30B vs consensus $-38.50B.

Markit Services PMI (Mar) arrived at 55.3 vs previous same while ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) arrived lower and worse at 53.1 vs 53.5 consensus.

AUD/USD Levels

Current price is 0.9233, with resistance ahead at 0.9233 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.9245 (Daily Classic PP), 0.9246 (Hourly 100 SMA), 0.9247 (Weekly Low) and 0.9249 (Daily Open). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.9225 (Daily Classic S1), 0.9223 (Yesterday's Low), 0.9218 (Hourly 200 SMA), 0.9206 (Daily Low) and 0.9202 (Daily Classic S2).

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Apr 03, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 3, 2014

USD/CAD up 0.05%; technically soft

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.1033, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1039 and low at 1.1003.

USD/CAD has been indecisive, in a range of 40 pips. Strategists at TD Securities noted that, “USD/CAD looks technically soft and short-term trend momentum is bearish but this is not a situation that is reflected in the longer studies so we are unable to come to a “high conviction” bear view at this point. Rather, the charts highlight the rising risk of further losses and the potential for a retest of the 1.09 area”.

RSI moving higher although lower momentum

Currently RSI is at 61.35, up from the last hourly print at 53.59, with ADX at 20.27, up from its previous close at 17.82. Daily RSI sits at 43.75, in neutral territory. Looking to momentum indicators, the hourly 200 SMA is currently at 1.1027, down from the last close at 1.1088 and declining. Over the past 20 days, the exponential average closing price is 1.1092, and trending lower.

USD/CAD Levels

Spot is presently trading at 1.1036, and next resistance can be seen at 1.1038 (Hourly 100 SMA), 1.1039 (Daily High), 1.1049 (Yesterday's High), 1.1052 (Daily Classic R1) and 1.1060 (Weekly High). Support below can be found at 1.1033 (Daily Open), 1.1027 (Daily Classic PP), 1.1024 (Weekly Low),1.1024 (Hourly 20 EMA) and 1.1005 (Daily Classic S1).

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Apr 03, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 4, 2014

AUD/USD jumps following non-farm payroll numbers

FXStreet (London) - AUD/USD jumped immediately following the release of mediocre US labour market statistics.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 192k in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Employment grew in professional and business services, in health care, and in mining and logging.

The number of unemployed persons was unchanged at 10.5 million, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.7 percent.

Strong upward revisions

The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised from +129k to +144k, and the change for February was revised from +175k to +197k.

While the print represents a strong rebound for the labour market following disruptive US weather conditions and below-normal temperatures at the beginning of the year, the bar had been set high by encouraging ISM and PMI surveys. Consensus expectations had been for a 200k print.

AUD/USD spiked to a high of USD0.9283 immediately following the release before retracing to its current levels at USD0.9274, up 0.43 percent on the session and remaining in bullish territory.

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Apr 04, 2014

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GBP/USD sell rumour buy the fact

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6589, down -0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6608 and low at 1.6554.

GBP/USD has spent the entire week building up to the jobs numbers from the US and today brings about profits for the ‘smart money’ who had anticipated the data coming in line with the Feds requirements in order to continue on its tapering regime.

GBP/USD Levels

Current price is 1.6595, with resistance ahead at 1.6598 (Daily Open), 1.6599 (Weekly Low), 1.6604 (Hourly 200 SMA), 1.6605 (Daily 20 SMA) and 1.6608 (Daily High). Next support to the downside can be found at 1.6588 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.6585 (Weekly Classic PP), 1.6570 (Yesterday's Low), 1.6559 (Daily Classic S1) and 1.6554 (Daily Low).

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Apr 04, 2014

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Gold takes off to the moon

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Gold has taken off post the US labour market details that came out this afternoon in the form of Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold rallied from $1,290.00 and is approaching on last weeks highs, scaling back all of the built up losses over the course of the week and end of last month. The dollar is mixed across the board, with knee jerk reactions and some stability forming some time after the event.

This might be a major 'sell the rumour buy the fact' scenario, or perhaps investors are just not that convinced without data that is proving outstanding until the Fed is able to really be sure that they are on track for needing to manage an economy that is set to grow, requiring a tightening shift in monetary policy.

The yellow mental is testing the 1,300.00 mark out and shows little signs of giving in at this stage having scored an impressive high through $1,302 so far.

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Apr 04, 2014

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Global growth? Not for two years - DB

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Gaël Gunubu, analyst at Deutsche Bank AG explained their view on global growth.

Key Quotes:

"While we maintain our core view that global growth should pickup meaningfully over the next two years, we have marked down our forecasts relative to last quarter. Broad-based EM downgrades account entirely for these downward revisions".

“Broad-based EM downgrades account entirely for these downward revisions. Most notably, we reduced our growth forecast for China in 2014 by 0.8pp”.

“While we continue to look for the recovery in export growth observed in the second half of last year to continue through this year and into 2015, we now expect the government will use this as an opportunity to depress investment in heavy industry even more”.

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Apr 04, 2014

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Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 55.2 disappointing expectations (59) in March

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Apr 04, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 4, 2014

EUR/USD pushing lower post NFPs

FXStreet (London) - EUR/USD is extending its decline from the weekly high of 1.3820, to post a monthly low at 1.3676, just below current price action in the aftermath of todays US Employment data.

EUR/USD declines as US Jobs slightly miss forecasts

Despite an initial jolt to the upside to post a daily high at 1.3731, EUR/USD settled and eventually declined following todays jobs data. US NFPs came in at 192k against forecasts of 200k, alongside US Unemployment sticking to 6.7%.

EUR/USD Technicals

Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3677, down -0.30% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3732 and low at 1.3675. Daily RSI sits at 42.91, in neutral territory while daily 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is shrinking at 253 pips.

EUR/USD Levels

Current price is 1.3680, with resistance ahead at 1.3686 (Daily 100 SMA), 1.3698 (Yesterday's Low), 1.3713 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.3720 (Daily Open) and 1.3720 (Monthly Low). Next support to the downside can be found at 1.3678 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.3676 (Daily Classic S1), 1.3675 (Daily Low), 1.3633 (Daily Classic S2) and 1.3606 (Weekly Classic S2).

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Apr 04, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 4, 2014

USD/CAD supported near 1.0960

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The steep pullback in the USD/CAD seems to have bottomed out in sub-1.0960 levels on Friday, now attempting to regain the key 1.10 handle.

USD/CAD lower on data

The CAD sharply appreciated vs. its southern neighbour after the Canadian jobless rate eased a tad to 6.9% during March, following an unexpected increase of the employment change by 42.9K vs. 20K forecasted. Further upbeat data also saw the Ivey PMI rising to 61.8 in last month from 57.8. “The breakdown from the pennant formation that formed up through late March/early April suggests the potential at least for a repeat of the 270 tick decline from above 1.12 that preceded it. From the breakdown point, that implies scope for a drop to the mid 1.07s over the next couple of weeks”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD relevant levels

The pair is now retreating 0.42% at 1.0988 with the next support at 1.0955 (low Mar.6) ahead of 1.0911 (low Feb.19) and finally 1.0905 (low Jan.16). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1078 (high Mar.28) would open the door to 1.1095 (weekly Tenkan Sen) and finally 1.1106 (high Mar.27).

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Apr 04, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 7, 2014

EUR/JPY sticks to intraday highs

FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR/JPY rebounded from the intraday low of 141.10 and reached current levels of 141.70 despite ECB officials jawboning.

Money doesn’t grow on trees, what a pity!

Nowotny comments pushed the pair to intraday highs of 141.78 as he said that ECB may use some other tools to stimulate economy apart from the policy rate, only to add that there is no urgency in applying them. And even Mersh with more dovish talk failed to derail the single currency from its upside trend. Alas, investors are not satisfied with just dovish rhetoric, they need real actions. They want money to grow on European trees, and won’t demonstrate a strong reaction to anything but actual steps to that effect. As I wrote in my latest blog post "EUR: Many roads down south", it is obvious that the appreciating euro really had its impact on German economy. The export oriented nature of the largest European economy is sensitive to the exchange rate of national currency, as the rise of the euromakes the goods more expensive, and less competitive on the world market. Though German industrial production came out better than expected today. it is not enough to claim full recovery of this worn out European locomotive, It was the only one that pushed the economy of the currency union last year, now it seems that it needs an overhaul. Let’s hope the European policymakers will get the idea sooner rather than later.

What are today’s key EUR/JPY levels?

Today's central pivot point can be found at 141.85, with support below at 141.06, 140.58 and 149.79, with resistance above at 142.24, 143.13, and 143.61. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish, with the 200SMA at 141.86 and the daily 20EMA is neutral at 141.66. Hourly RSI is bullish at 19.

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Apr 07, 2014

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Gold wobbles around $1,300

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The ounce troy of the precious metal is grinding lower at the beginning of the week, keeping the trade in levels just shy of the $1,300 handle so far.

The risk-on sentiment has taken over the markets on Monday following the ‘disappointing’ US Payrolls from last Friday (192K act. vs. 200K esp.), and prompting spot to surrender further ground. After the steep correction lower from March peaks around $1,380, gold found decent support near $1,280 although it seems to lack the vigour to leave behind $1,300 once again.

At the moment gold is down 0.25% at $1,300.

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Apr 07, 2014

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USD/CHF breaks below 0.8900

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF came under pressure and broke below the 0.8900 mark during the European session following higher-than-expected Swiss CPI data.

The Swiss consumer price index grew 0.4% in March versus 0.2% expected while YoY CPI was flat versus -0.1% forecast. Coupled with that, USD weakness persists across the board in quite slow Monday trading. The USD/CHF is extending a pullback from the 100-day SMA around 0.8950, having fallen to a low of 0.8883 so far. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 0.8890 area, recording a 0.3% loss on the day.

USD/CHF technical levels

In terms of technical levels, if the USD/CHF breaks below 0.8883, next supports could be found at 0.8866 (10-day SMA) and 0.8843 (Apr 3 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 0.8945 (100-day SMA) and 0.9000 (psychological level).

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Apr 07, 2014

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USD/CAD stalled above 1.1000

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The intraday ascent of USD/CAD seems to have found strong resistance in the area of 1.1010/00 on Monday, now correcting lower to 1.0985/80.

USD/CAD supported near 1.0950

The pair is rapidly recovering from post-Payrolls troughs near 1.0950 on Friday, retaking the psychological 1.10 handle although the bull attempt run out of legs near 1.1010. Almost empty docket in Canada today, with the BoC Business Outlook Survey ahead of housing data tomorrow. “A sustained recovery back above 1.1005/10 in our session this morning will provide a little more relief for the USD and possibly pave the way for a rebound to the 1.1075/00 area and help stabilize the recent track lower. We remain broadly positive on the outlook for USDCAD”, noted Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD levels to consider

As of writing the pair is up 0.10% at 1.0993 with the next resistance at 1.1078 (high Mar.28) ahead of 1.1095 (weekly Tenkan Sen) and finally 1.1106 (high Mar.27). On the flip side, a break below 1.0955 (low Mar.6) would aim for 1.0911 (low Feb.19) and then 1.0905 (low Jan.16).

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Apr 07, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 8, 2014

USD/CHF feels the force of gravity

FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/CHF is trading at 0.8860, down -0.20% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8881 and low at 0.8850.

Where is the bottom?

USD/CHF extended the downside during the European session as the Swiss Frank is supported by positive macroeconomic data and heightened anti-risk sentiments. USD is under pressure across the board, that adds to USD/CHF woes. Obviously, we need to see an improvement of the American stock market development and positive US economic forecasts from IMF to reverse this shor-tern bearish USD trend. From the technical point of view the strong support is seen at 0.8850 with fresh demand on approach, The resistance comes at 0.8870 where a number of important technical levels is clustered (0.8871 (Hourly 200 SMA), 0.8871 (Yesterday's Low), 0.8876 (Hourly 20 EMA)).

What are today’s key USD/CHF levels?

Today's central pivot point can be found at 0.8893 with support below at 0.8857, 0.8835 and 0.8799, with resistance above at 0.8915, 0.8951, and 0.8973. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA at 0.8870 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 0.8852. Hourly RSI is bearish at 33.

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Apr 08, 2014

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EUR/USD at fresh highs as dollar weakness persists

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD spiked to fresh daily highs ahead of the Wall Street opening amid general dollar weakness.

The shared currency took advantage of a weak dollar, which is losing ground versus both high-yielding and safe-haven currencies, and climbed to a high of 1.3783 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3775 zone, recording a 0.25% gain on the day. With only second-tier US data scheduled for today, FX market will likely continue to monitor stocks' market, Fed speakers and Ukraine situation.

EUR/USD outlook

"EUR continues to fade the weakness infused by last week’s ECB meeting, encouraged by comments from some Governing Council members that cast doubts on how unanimous the body actually is towards QE. The Fed Minutes tomorrow might reignite the trek higher in UST yields, helping EUR/USD to resume its path lower", said the TD Securities team. "However, until we cross that bridge, today we might be in for a day of range-trading in the 1.3755/75 area".

EUR/USD levels to watch

On the upside, next resistances line up at 1.3800 (psychological level) and 1.3809 (21-day SMA) ahead of 1.3820 (Apr 2 high). On the flip side, supports could be found at 1.3736 (daily low), 1.3700 (psychological level) and 1.3688 (100-day SMA).

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Apr 08, 2014

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USD/JPY extends the decline to 102.20

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Japanese yen continues its appreciation against the greenback on Tuesday, dragging the USD/JPY to fresh 2-week lows in sub-102.20 levels.

USD/JPY capped by 104.00 so far

The pair is extending its consolidation pattern although it remains unable to convincingly break above the 104.00 handle despite the recent risk-on context. In the data front, Japanese current account surplus surprised investors to the upside, coming in at ¥612.7 billion in February. Further data showed the BoJ stayed put in today’s monetary policy meeting, matching the broader consensus. Analysts at BBH commented, “BOJ Governor Kuroda continues to signal a desire to look past the sales tax increase and expects the economic recovery not to be derailed. This means that there is no sense of urgency to respond to some immediate weakness. He will likely assume whatever disruption is seen is transitory”.

USD/JPY levels to watch

The pair is now retreating 0.85% at 102.20 with the immediate support at 102.06 (daily cloud base) ahead of 102.02 (low Mar.28) and finally 101.71 (low Mar.27). On the upside, a breakout of 103.10 (daily cloud top) would open the door to 103.81 (low Apr.3) and then 104.12 (high Apr.3).

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Apr 08, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 8, 2014

AUD/USD extends advance to 0.9350

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Australian dollar is extending gains above the 0.9300 area against the US dollar as the AUD/USD is reaching fresh 2014 highs around 0.9350.

The AUD/USD finally broke the 0.9300 area in the European session to 0.9340 as market seems to be looking for high yielders. Then the pair extended gains just ahead of the American opening bell to highst since November 20.

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9344, up 0.79% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9351 and low at 0.9261. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.

AUD/USD levels to watch

Market says a barrier option interest at 0.9350 and 0.9400. Resistances are at 0.9351 (Daily High), 0.9400 and 0.9440. On the downside, supports are at 0.9325, 0.9300 and 0.9290.

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Apr 08, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Russian, Ukrainian and EU officials to meet on renewed separatist tensions

FXStreet (Łódź) - Tensions in Ukraine have started growing again, following the outbreak of pro-Russian demonstrations in three eastern Ukrainian cities over the weekend. Protesters in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv took over government buildings and called for an independence referendum, such as that conducted in Crimea. Meanwhile Russia warned that this might be a beginning of a civil war.

Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said that the protests were a Russian provocation, aimed at fomenting unrest and making way for another intervention in Ukraine. Also the US said there was evidence that the demonstrators were not local people and warned Russia not to aggravate the situation. US Secretary of State John Kerry said that it would “incur costs.”

Following a telephone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Kerry announced that withing the next ten days Russian, Ukrainian and EU officials will hold a meeting to discuss the situation.

The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team comment: “The situation remains fluid, but such cat-and-mouse actions are to be expected. We maintain our base case that despite the likelihood of periodic flare-ups in Ukraine, Russia will not risk antagonizing the West with further military actions. Instead, the battle seems likely to shift further to financial channels (sanctions and counter-sanctions) and away from the battleground itself in eastern Ukraine.”

Meanwhile in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's governing Fidesz party won parliamentary elections held over the weekend, despite growing criticism that under their rule the independence of the judiciary and the media has been drastically reduced.

Economic data

Statistics Estonia revealed don Monday that the Estonian CPI accelerated to 0.3% in March (MoM), from 0.1% registered in February.

On Tuesday Hungary and Turkey published Industrial Production data for February. On an annual basis Hungary's Industrial Output jumped 8.1%, following a 6.1% increase and considerably above consensus of +6%.

Turkey's Industrial Output grew 4.9%, down from the 7.3% rise and almost in line with forecasts of a 5% increase.

Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities points out that “IP headline and details show that weakness of economic activity is starting to pass through into the economy.”

The Czech Unemployment rate, also released on Tuesday ticked down to 8.3% in March from 8.6% in February, beating expectations of a slide to 8.4%.

South Africa's Business Confidence Index increased from 91.9 in February to 92.7 in March, the highest level in a year.

Technicals

Despite investor concerns about the possibility of further sanctions being imposed on Russia, the ruble posted a strong performance on Monday.

USD/RUB fell by 0.31% to 2.0917. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI was neutral at 48 at the last close. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 4909 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4234 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.4937, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.6935.

The Turkish lira has been consolidating gains since Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP)won local elections last week.

USD/TRY dropped by 0.87% on Monday to 2.0917. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI was neutral at 29 at the last close and moved up to 32 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 459 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 278 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.0701, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.1736.

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Apr 08, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 9, 2014

IMF warns weak EU banks, low US rates can hurt global recovery

FXStreet (Barcelona) - The International Monetary Fund said today that global recovery could be hampered by the instability of the EU banking system. China's slowdown, the end of low rates in the US and potential tensions in emerging markets were other adverse factors mentioned by the organization.

The IMF urged EU officials to step up efforts to create a common backstop for failing banks and launch the banking union as soon as possible in order to prevent further destabilization.

Moreover, the fund warned that keeping rates low for an extended period of time in the US would make the QE exit even more difficult

“The key message is that strong policy actions are needed to definitely turn the corner from the great financial crisis and engineer a successful shift from 'liquidity-driven' to 'growth-driven' markets,” said José Viñals, IMF financial counselor.

He also pointed to the problems in emerging markets where corporations will become more vulnerable to shocks along with the tightening of financial conditions.

“Higher debt loads and lower debt servicing capacity make corporates more sensitive to tighter external financing conditions and to a potential reversal of capital flows that could trigger a rise in borrowing costs and a drop in earnings,” Viñals suggested.

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Apr 09, 2014

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US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at 4.03M to beat forecasts (1M) in April 4

Read more in Forex News

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Apr 09, 2014

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US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at 4.03M to beat forecasts (1M) in April 4

Consumer prices in Brazil rose to the highest level in 11 years by 0.92%, increasing the possibility that the country's central bank carries out another rate hike at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

The CPI acceleration, considerably above forecasts, also could weigh against President Dilma Rousseff's reelection in October. She already saw support wane from 44% in February to 38% this month. The Brazilian real strengthened on the news, as investors believe that markets will gain from Rousseff's leaving the office.

Economic data

On Tuesday and Wednesday a slew of March CPI data was released in Latin America. Chilean month-on-month inflation came in slightly above consensus of 0.7% at 0.8% and up from the previous 0.5%. Core CPI was at 0.7%, following a 0.4% reading.

Brazil's IPCA inflation, released by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica grew 0.92% in March, up from the 0.69% rise in February. On an annual basis CPI increased 6.15%, following +5.68% and above forecasts of 6.08%.

Mexico's 12-month inflation slowed down to 3.76% in March from 4.23% in February. Core inflation was at 0.21%, down from 0.28% and Headline inflation at 0.27%, following a 0.25% reading.

Technicals

The USD/BRL rose by 0.82% to 2.2129 on Wednesday. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index extremely oversold. RSI sat at 22 at the last close, and has reached 61 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 478 pips, with ATR (14) at 312 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.3078 , while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.2837.

The USD/MXN climbed 0.13% to 13.0654. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI sat at 41 at the last close, and has headed higher to 69 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 884 pips, with ATR (14) at 886 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 13.0533, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 13.1201.

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Apr 09, 2014

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USD/CAD testing 1.0900

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness around the greenback is gathering traction on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC minutes, dragging the USD/CAD to multi-week lows in sub-1.0900 levels.

USD/CAD in 3-month lows

Spot is testing levels last seen in mid-January below the 1.0900 handle following the generalized selling mood around the greenback. The pair, which is falling for the third consecutive week, will face the FOMC minutes this evening in Europe followed by some Fedspeak (Evans and Tarullo). According to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, “The daily picture for USDCAD shows spot holding in a narrow range a little above the 1.0910 low registered in February. This is key support for funds; a break below here to new cycle lows will shift the balance of risks more obviously towards a drop to the low 1.07s”.

USD/CAD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is losing 0.15% at 1.0904 with the immediate support at 1.0900 (psychological level). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1001 (low Mar.27) would expose 1.1078 (high Mar.28) and finally 1.1095 (weekly Tenkan Sen).

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Apr 09, 2014

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AUD/USD holds onto gains

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD continues to consolidate yesterday's gains, oscillating near multi-month highs at the area but unable to resume the rally as investors await the FOMC minutes release.

The AUD/USD spiked to a fresh 4-month high of 0.9386 in the wake of solid Australian confidence and housing data, but lacked follow-through and was confined to a range, contained by the 0.9350 zone on the downside. Currently, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9365 area, virtually unchanged Wednesday.

AUD/USD technical perspective

"The AUD/USD hourly chart shows price consolidating above its 20 SMA that turns flat and losses upward potential, while indicators aim slightly higher after correcting overbought readings", said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. "In the 4 hours chart the overall bullish trend prevails albeit some downward corrective movement towards 0.9330 support can't be ruled out".

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OctaFX_Farid · April 10, 2014

USD/CAD jumps above 1.0900

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar is currently gaining ground against its Canadian counterpart as the pair has reacted to the upside after the good data in the US.

The USD/CAD was initially well supported by the 1.0875 area in the European morning; however movements were limited until the jobless claims report that came better than expected. Data fueled pair to break above the 1.0900 key level and to trade at daily highs around 1.0920.

Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0909, up 0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0922 and low at 1.0868. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

USD/CAD levels

If the pair holds above the 1.0900 area, next resistances are at 1.0922 (Daily High), 1.0944 (Yesterday's High) and 1.0960. On the downside, supports are at 1.0875, 1.0865 and 1.0955.

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Apr 10, 2014

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AUD/USD cae a 0.9400

FXStreet (San Francisco) - El AUD/USD extiende su rechazo desde máximos de 5 meses alrededor de 0.9465 y ahora está poniendo a prueba el soporte de 0.9400 con la apertura del mercado americano.

Actualmente, el AUD/USD se cotiza a 0.9402, sube 0,12% aún en el día, después de haber contabilizado un máximo diario en 0.9465 y mínimo a 0.9370.

"El comportamiento del precio hace que te preguntes si la oleada de esta mañana a 0.9461 era un top de purga. Tiene ese tipo de sensación", comentó recientemente Jamie Coleman de FXBeat. "La advertencia de Lagarde de un aterrizaje forzoso de China podría ayudar a soplar un poco de espuma fuera del Aussie también."

Niveles AUD/USD

Hay paradas vistas alrededor de 0.9390/95, mientras que las ofertas se encuentran en 0.9370. Otros soportes se encuentran en 0.9350 y 0.9335. Al alza, las resistencias se encuentran en 0.9430 y 0.9465.

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Apr 10, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Ukrainian hryvnia plunges to record low on rising tensions with Russia

FXStreet (Łódź) - Russian President Vladimir Putin informed EU leaders on Thursday that Ukraine's gas debt situation was “critical” and that the country's failure to meet its obligations would have an impact on the supplies of gas to European countries which receive it via pipelines which cross Ukraine.

Putin met with government ministers on Wednesday and decided that no critical measures against Ukraine would be taken until further talks with EU officials were held. PM Dmitry Medvedev said that Ukraine owed Russia 2.2 billion dollars for the supplied gas. Earlier on Tuesday Ukrainian Energy Minister Yury Prodan said that the country was temporarily reducing gas imports from Russia and halting the payments for March, until the issue was settled. PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk called Gazprom's recent 80% gas price hike an “aggression against Ukraine.”

Jamie Coleman from FXBeat suggests that because Ukraine is the key transit route for Russian gas to Europe, “Putin could leverage that fact to get Europe to cover Ukraine's gas debt in order to keep supplies flowing.”

“With Europe in the midst of a weak recovery, the last thing it needs is an energy crisis,” the expert adds.

Kiev meanwhile is searching for alternative sources of gas supply and if Poland and Hungary start providing it soon enough, Ukraine might cope without the energy from Russia.

Economic data

On Thursday Romania's National Institute of Statistics informed that March CPI was at 1%, down from 1.1% seen in February.

Also Industrial Production data was released, showing a 1.3% month-on-month decline in February, compared with 6.4% growth in January.

South Africa's Manufacturing Production Index climbed 1.4% in February year-on-year, following 2.2% growth recorded the previous month, according to data released today by Statistics South Africa Head Office.

Technicals

Ukrainian hryvnia tumbled to a new record low against the dollar at 12.70 on Thursday, on the exacerbation of the gas row with Russia, separatist unrest in its eastern regions and the ongoing negotiations on rescue funds

On Wednesday USD/UAH jumped by 4.39% to 12.40. The daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, and the OB/OS Index extremely overbought. RSI was at 89 at the last close.

This year so far the hryvnia rate has fallen by 44.69% from 8.2730 UAH/USD to 11.97 UAH/USD in the interbank market.

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Apr 10, 2014

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ECB's Praet says Governing Council 'comfortable' with forward guidance

FXStreet (Łódź) - ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet said Thursday that the central bank hadn't changed its assessment that interest rates should remain at their present or lower levels for an extended period.

Speaking on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings, Praet assured that the forward guidance was having a positive impact on money markets, as their reaction to external developments “has been much more insulated." Markets trust the ECB to do what's needed in the face of low inflation, he stressed.

Furthermore, ECB's chief economist said that a high degree of slack remained in the Eurozone economy. He pointed out that the recovery in the area remained "modest, uneven" and "increasingly broad-based."

He also acknowledged the fact that while confidence indicators picked up considerably, activity hasn't and that should be carefully monitored. He added that the output gap "is unlikely to be closed before 2017 for the euro area as a whole."

“EUR/USD has hardly reacted to the comments or the earlier US data as it consolidates in the 1.3860/70 zone,” remarks Adam Button from Forex Live. “There’s nothing in his comments that suggests the ECB is any close to cutting rates or QE. That’s a greenlight for buying the euro and the market doesn’t seem to care about the softer-than-expected French CPI numbers released today.”

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Apr 10, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 10, 2014

USD/JPY attempting to make further lows below 101.40

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/JPY is extending its decline from 102.00 and currently it is attempting to make further lows below 101.40 as the pair is pricing at lows since March 19 at 101.35.

According to Chris Tevere from Forex.com: the "USD/JPY is attempting to break below channel support, drawn from the Feb. Low around 101.50." Tevere affirms that a "daily close below needed for confirmation."

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 101.38, down -0.59% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.16 and low at 101.35. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.

USD/JPY levels to watch

Supports can be found at 101.38 (Daily Low), 101.36 (Monthly Low) and 101.00 (YTD Low). On the upside, the USD/JPY would face resistances at 101.50, 101.80 and 102.00.

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Apr 10, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 14, 2014

EUR current levels uncomfortable? - Investec

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, underlined the rising concerns from the current EUR strength.

Key Quotes

"The main news from over the weekend came from comments from the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, indicating that the central bank would implement more monetary stimulus if they witnessed further appreciation of the Euro".

"Whilst GBPEUR has been on a steady climb in recent months as the pound has been one of the best performing currencies in the G10, the single currency has appreciated against most other major currencies and it’s clear that European officials are now uncomfortable with the impact this is having on European exporters".

"‘Further monetary stimulus’ could come in the form of negative interest rates and/or quantitative easing and the news led to weakness in the euro earlier today."

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Apr 14, 2014

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OctaFX_Farid · April 14, 2014

GBP/USD hits lows sub-1.6700

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD extended its correction lower Monday although at a slower pace, with solid US retail sales data dragging the pair to fresh lows at the beginning of the American session.

The GBP/USD pierced below the 1.6700 mark and printed a fresh 6-day low of 1.6696 before finding support. US retail sales grew 1.1% in March, beating the 0.8% rise expected, while excluding autos, it rose 0.7% versus 0.5% expected, giving the greenback a boost.

GBP/USD technical levels

At time of writing, the Cable is trading at 1.6700, down 0.2% on the day, with immediate supports seen at 1.6695 (Apr 14 low), 1.6679 (10-day SMA) and 1.6622 (21-day SMA). On the upside, resistances could be found at 1.6743 (Apr 14 high), 1.6786 (Apr 11 high) and 1.6819 (Apr 10 high).

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Apr 14, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Stocks and ruble fall on unrest in east Ukraine, threats of further sanctions against Russia

FXStreet (Łódź) - Tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalated over the weekend with pro- and anti-Russian demonstrators continuing clashes in the east part of Ukraine and Kiev threatening to conduct a "full-scale anti-terrorist operation" against people occupying government buildings if they refuse to leave by Monday morning.

The ultimatum hasn't been carried out however and more official buildings have been seized by pro-Russian protesters on Monday. Ukraine's interim president Olexander Turchynov once again called the developments a Russian “aggression” but at the same time suggested that he wasn't against a referendum on the future of the country and its shift from a republic to a federation

"We are not against holding a national referendum," the president said. "I am certain that a majority of Ukrainians will support an indivisible, independent, democratic and united Ukraine."

Furthermore, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Sunday during which the US accused Russia of fomenting unrest in Ukraine and warned it could impose further sanctions on Russia.

On Monday also European Union foreign ministers, gathered in Luxembourg to discuss the Ukraine crisis, suggested that more sanctions against Moscow would be imposed. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said that Russia was continuing to destabilize the situation in Ukraine on purpose and that quick action was required to stop it. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski urged other officials to expand the sanctions list as soon as possible.

"The EU has to make it clear to Russia what are the consequences of any possible future actions in eastern Ukraine," he said. "I expect a very specific signal when we can expect sanctions if Russia takes further steps."

But some of the EU officials, worried about the problems such a move could cause for gas transit, weren't eager to take such quick action and preferred to wait until more talks were held on Thursday in Geneva.

The Russian ruble fell to the lowest level in three weeks and stocks tumbled. The Micex Index registered its sharpest decline in a week, dropping by 1.7% to 1339.73.

Economic data

Israel's quarterly GDP data showed a pickup in growth to 3.2% in Q1, following a 1.8% rise the previous quarter, the Central bureau of statistics informed on Sunday. This result is more positive than the expected 3% increase.

Israeli CPI, released on Monday, climbed 1.3% on an annual basis in March, slightly up from the 1.2% rise registered the previous month. Month-on-month inflation increased 0.3%, compared with the 0.2% drop.

Year-on-year Polish M3 Money Supply, also published on Monday, rose 5.1% in March, up from 5.3% in February and above projections of 4.8% growth.

Technicals

The Russian ruble weakened 0.6% against the central bank’s target basket of dollars and euros to 42.1394 on Monday. USD/RUB grew by 0.74% to 35.8930.

On Friday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 49 at the last close and slid to 43 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3852 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 3587 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.5418, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.6723.