OctaFX_Farid Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 Flash: USD/CAD retains the bullish bias - TD Securities FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, remarks the bullish outlook of the USD/CAD. Key Quotes "USDCAD remains trapped in a right range. Event risk is evident for the CAD this week as well—Governor Poloz speaks Tuesday at the Halifax Chamber of Commerce in NS and will hold a press conference afterwards." "On Friday, Canada releases key data—retail sales and CPI—which may go some way to shaking the CAD out of the consolidation range in place in the past few weeks—one way or the other. We favour s topside break out above 1.1130." "USDCAD retains a heavy bias so far today. The CAD is well-supported alongside the broadly firmer AUD and NZD, while safe-haves such as the JPY and CHF are under-performing.USDCAD is pressuring support in the mid 1.10 area and easing below the 40-day MA at 1.1072 in early trade today—though we don’t think the move is likely to extend too far at present." "We still rather think the underlying trend in funds is higher, supported by improving US fundamentals, Fed tapering and the less than dynamic growth backdrop in Canada which has encouraged a significant narrowing in spreads in the belly of the curve in the past few months, with US-Canada 5 year spreads tracking a little below flat again today helping support the USD arou8nd 1.1050/70." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 17, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: Japanese trade deficit could be reverted - BBH FXStreet (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, expects February's trade balance in Japan to show improved figures. Key Quotes "Japan is likely to report a marked improvement in its February trade balance. The January trade shortfall was JPY2.79 trln." "It was likely distorted by seasonal factors and the Lunar New Year. The consensus for the February deficit is near JPY602 bln." "This probably understates the real size of the Japanese monthly trade deficit. The 12-month average is near JPY820 bln." "At the same time, a seasonal improvement in investment income suggests a trade deficit this size may not fuel a current account deficit. The streak of four consecutive monthly current account deficits may come to an end when the February balance is reported in early April." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 17, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: AUD/USD more gains above 0.9100 - FXStreet FXStreet (Córdoba) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes the AUD/USD presents a limited positive tone in short-term charts. Key Quotes "The positive mood among stocks traders is giving a nice support to Aussie, which trades near its daily high, with the hourly chart showing a strong upward momentum and RSI nearing overbought territory". "In the same time frame, 20 SMA heads higher below current price while the 4 hours chart technical readings present a more limited positive tone, with recent highs around 0.9100 as immediate resistance level to break to gain further bullish tone". "Support levels: 0.9040 0.9000 0.8960. Resistance levels: 0.9100 0.9130 0.9170". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 17, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 GBP/USD dips below 1.6600 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is quickly losing ground on Tuesday, pushing the GBP/USD to fresh intraday lows in sub-1.6600 levels. GBP/USD focus on Carney’s speech today A bout of selling orders is now dragging spot to the lower band of the weekly range near 1.6590, down from the mid-1.66s just moments ago. There are no data releases in the UK today, although Governor Carney’s speech in the European evening would grab traders’ attention. Ahead in the week, key labour market figures are due tomorrow (ILO u-rate at 7.2% exp.) followed by the BoE minutes (expected a non-event), and all ending with the FOMC gathering. “We suspect that the market will need to break back below 1.6532 (the 8 month uptrend) in order to re-focus attention on to the 1.6259/29 support zone which remains key (September high and the 23.6% retracement of the move up from July 2013)”, commented Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. GBP/USD levels to watch The pair is now losing 0.23% at 1.6598 with the next support at 1.6587 (low Mar.14) followed by 1.6568 (low Mar.12) and then 1.6553 (50-d MA). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.6667 (high Mar.17) would open the door to 1.6719 (high Mar.13) and finally 1.6745 (high Mar.10). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD got nervous due to sudden pound weakness FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR/USD was trading close to session highs, but bounced back to 1.3910 area scared by the cable sell-off. Spill-over effect from the pound EUR/USD followed the move down after GBP/USD lost more than 50 pips in an hour. The prime seller of the pound is rumored to be a custody bank. The significant amount of the transaction means it is the move within some strategic frame, thus the sell-off interest may have spill-over effect on other European currencies, as happened with the euro already. By the time of writing, it reached 1.3907 low from 1.3937 session high posted in Asia. Nevertheless, the move down will be complicated by the noted buyers’ interest around 1.39 area, with more around 1.3885. What are today’s key EUR/USD levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.3916, with support below at 1.3884, 1.3845 and 1.3813, with resistance above at 1.3955, 1.3987, and 1.4026. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA at 1.3869 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 1.3805. Hourly RSI is neutral at 56. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 Gold's falls below 1,350 after 3-day decline FXStreet (San Francisco) - The gold is extending declines from March 17 high of $1,394 as today the pair broke the 1,350 support to trade at lows since May 10 at 1,337.65. At this moment, the XAU/USD is pricing at 1,338.53, 1.45% negative in the day. "Gold extends its slide to a fresh 8 day low, breaking below its 20 SMA in the daily chart, and gaining bearish momentum in the mentioned time frame," comments Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet chief analyst. With the FED around the corner, "the metal will likely consolidate in the short term, yet a break below the daily low with the news should lead to a test of the 1,327 immediate support, while once below this last 1,318 comes next," Bednarik adds. Resistances for today, come at 1,354, and 1,367. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD finds support sub-0.9100 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD is staging a pullback from its 3-month high of 0.9137 scored during the Asian session, moving in tandem with gold that is also in retreat. The AUD/USD came under pressure Wednesday and even fell below the 0.9100 mark, although briefly, amid broad USD strength ahead of the Federal Reserve verdict. At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9105 zone, recording a 0.2% loss on the day and with a low set at 0.9094 so far. AUD/USD technical outlook From a technical perspective, "the hourly chart shows price below its 20 SMA and indicators presenting a mild bearish tone in neutral territory, more suggesting a pause before a new leg up than a top", says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. "In the 4 hours chart the bullish tone remains healthy, albeit a clear confirmation above 0.9130 is required to see a new leg up". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 US EIA Natural Gas Storage change: -48B March 14 vs -195B Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/JPY recovers the 141.00 position and trades at 141.20 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The risk appetite is back on the market with the Euro gaining ground against the Japanese Yen following the upbeat Philly Fed number released today. The EUR/JPY jumped around 35 pips in the latest few minutes from 2-day low at 140.80 to price at 141.20. Pair is currently trading at 141.11, 0.30% negative in the day. The short term perspective is now slightly bullish according to the FXStreet trend index. CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic and MACD are neutrals. EUR/JPY sentiment "We've made a few probes below trendline support at 140.90 but keep popping back into the range and now trade at 141.15," commented Jamie Coleman from FXBeat. "US equities have turned higher on the day after upbeat data from the Philly Fed. The hope is that the upbeat data translates to strong ISM data on April 1." Below the 140.80/90 area, the pair would face supports at 140.70 and 140.45. On the upside, resistances are at 141.40 area, 141.70 and 141.90. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY muted after US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY continues to consolidate in a slim range Thursday as investors digest the latest FOMC statement, unable to set a short-term direction with the latest string of US data having virtually no impact on the cross. The USD/JPY has spent the entire day consolidating the previous' day gains, trading within 102.20 and 102.55. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.40 zone, virtually unchanged on the day. While US jobless claims came in better-than-expected, existing home sales unexpectedly fell in February while Philly Fed manufacturing index beat expectations. USD/JPY technical levels "USD/JPY gains had been modest compared to dollar European crosses, albeit the pair is far from even testing critical levels: contained below 102.60 Fibonacci resistance, the hourly chart shows indicators corrected most of the overbought readings and approach their midlines, while 200 SMA offers short term support currently around 102.10", said Valeria Bednarik, analyst at FXStreet. "In the 4 hours chart a mild bullish tone prevails, albeit unless a clear advance beyond mentioned resistance, the upside will likely remain limited". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD and Yellen; Mind the gap - HSBC FXStreet (Guatemala) - Daragh Maher, FX Strategist at HSBC, explained the gap between end of QE and first rate hike is what counts. Key Quotes: “Tapering no longer captivates the market. We argued back in January that the key driver to the market would become the expected gap between the end of QE and the first rate hike”. “Yellen's suggestion last night that this gap might only be 6 months caught the market by surprise and provoked widespread USD buying. Unless the Fed back-tracks in future comments, this should provide further support for the USD”. “The chart below the expected gap between QE end and the first hike, based on Bloomberg surveys and Fed funds futures for when the policy rate should reach 0.50%. Three phases are worth noting”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Obama announces more sanctions against Russia FXStreet (Łódź) - US president Barack Obama said on Thursday that additional Russian officials would come under US sanctions, which would also be broadened to other "key sectors of the Russian economy." The president suggested that the events in Ukraine were heading towards an escalation with the country's southern and eastern parts under threat of Russian invasion. "Diplomacy between the U.S. and Russia continues. We've emphasized that Russia still has a different path available," Obama said at the White House. "We want the Ukrainian people to determine their own destiny and to have good relations with the United States, Russia, Europe, with anyone they choose." Later today Obama will also make a statement on the situation in Ukraine. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 EUR/USD capped by 1.3800 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The key 1.3800 level still remains elusive for EUR bulls on Friday, with the EUR/USD gearing up at the 1.3790/95 area. EUR/USD lifted by risk appetite The pair is smiling again against a backdrop of better risk sentiment today. Spot is currently pushing to break above the 1.3800 handle, as the sedative effects from the FOMC statement are slowly dissipating. A wider EMU’s Current Account surplus during January would also be adding to the optimism. “While we cannot rule out that this week’s hawkish Fed messages could prove a turning point for EUR/USD, we do not think a massive sell-off will be seen from here in the near term”, noted Jens Pedersen, Analyst at Danske Bank. EUR/USD levels to watch The pair is now up 0.08% at 1.3789 with the next resistance at 1.3805 (Kijun Sen) ahead of 1.3811 (21-d MA) and then 1.3845 (high Mar.20). On the downside, a breach of 1.3749 (low Mar.20) would open the door to 1.3722 (50% of 1.3477-1.3967) and finally 1.3720 (low Mar.6). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD bounces off 1.1220 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bottoming out near 1.1220, the USD/CAD is now extending its rebound to the mid-1.12s ahead of the Canadian docket. USD/CAD eyes key data The pair is correcting lower from multi-year peaks around 1.1280, printed post-FOMC on Wednesday. Spot would be in the limelight during the European afternoon, as Canadian inflation figures during February (BoC 1.1% YoY exp.) and January’s retail sales are due (headline 0.7% exp.) ahead of key Fedspeak. “Our hunch is that the consensus is looking for today’s Fed speak to ‘soothe’ some of the fears instigated by Wednesday’s FOMC, so we’d be cautious about buying USDCAD 1.122-1.125 if the data are on the better side”, commented Stephen Gallo, European Head FX Strategy at BMO. USD/CAD levels to consider As of writing the pair is advancing 0.04% at 1.1251 with the next resistance at 1.1300 (psychological level) ahead of 1.1669 (61.8% of 1.3066-0.9407) and then 1.1680 (high Jul.10 2009). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1122 (low Mar.19) would target 1.1045 (daily cloud top) and finally 1.1025 (low Mar.18). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD falters ahead of 0.9100 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD has continued moving higher throughout the European session, breaking above the 100-hour SMA to reach daily highs just a few pips shy of the 0.9100 mark. The AUD/USD advanced helped by the positive tone in stocks and climbed to a fresh post-FOMC high of 0.9091 before finding resistance. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 0.9080 area, recording a 0.5% gain on the day. In the absence of news and with nothing in the US docket, trading might remain subdued the rest of the day. AUD/USD levels to watch In terms of technical levels, if the AUD/USD breaks above 0.9100 (psychological level), next resistances could be found at 0.9137 (Mar 19 high) and 0.9147 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.9032 (100-day SMA) and 0.8994 (Mar 20 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) came in at 0.7% to beat forecasts (0.5%) in February Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Canada: CPI (Feb) rose 1.1% YoY FXStreet (Edinburgh) -Canadian consumer prices rose 1.1% on a year through February, exceeding expectations at 0.9%. On a monthly basis prices gained 0.8%, vs. 0.6% estimated. The Bank of Canada Core CPI rose 1.2% over the last twelve months and 0.7% on a monthly basis, vs. forecasts at 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 1% to beat forecasts (0.9%) in January Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Portugal Current Account Balance: €-0.185B (January) vs previous €0.881B Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD consolidating around 1.3770 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is now trying to consolidate after the post-PMI decline, with the EUR/USD now meandering around 1.3770/65. EUR/USD attention to ZEW With the manufacturing and services PMIs now in the rear mirror, market participants would turn their focus on tomorrow’s German ZEW Survey. Spot would remain under pressure however, as market consensus expects Business Climate and Expectations components to come in a tad lower for the current month, while Current Assessment would marginally improve. Martin van Vliet, Analyst at ING Bank NV, assessed “the further weakening in the Chinese PMI and the relatively strong euro do not bode well for export growth momentum going forward and with unemployment still elevated and fiscal policy still contractionary, a strong revival in domestic demand seems unlikely going forward. That said, the further signs of recovery will encourage the ECB in refraining from further monetary easing, at least in the short term”. EUR/USD significant levels The pair is now losing 0.15% at 1.3773 and a breach of 1.3749 (low Mar.20) would open the door to 1.3722 (50% of 1.3477-1.3967) and finally 1.3720 (low Mar.6). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.3827 (high Mar.24) ahead of 1.3845 (high Mar.20) and then 1.3862 (10-d MA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD flirting with 1.6500 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After dipping to fresh lows near 1.6460, the GBP/USD managed to pick up pace is currently challenging the key barrier at 1.6500. GBP/USD decoupling from the EUR/USD The pair is now reverting the initial drop along with its European peer, recovering from a negative start and looking to regain 1.6500 the figure. In the view of Jane Foley, Senior Currency strategist at Rabobank, “the BoE currently looks set to hike rates before the Fed, ECB or the BoJ. For this reason, sterling could attract fresh buying interest in the coming months. While we expect a broad-based USD recovery to push cable lower by year-end, we expect EUR/GBP to push back towards the 0.81. Given that sterling longs have been cleared out in recent weeks, better UK economic data this week could lend the pound decent support”. GBP/USD levels to watch The pair is now up 0.04% at 1.6496 with the next resistance at 1.6520 (high Mar.21) ahead of 1.6550 (55-d MA) and finally 1.6570 (high Mar.20). On the downside, a break below 1.6453 (38.2% of 1.5854-1/6823) would open the door to 1.6425 (low Feb.12) and then 1.6392 (low Feb.11). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD climbs to tops near 0.9120 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar not only regained the 0.9100 handle, but it is also pushing the AUD/USD to print fresh multi-day highs near 0.9120. AUD/USD extends the rebound The pair is now retracing the deep pullback post-FOMC gathering on March 19th, coming up from the vicinity of 0.8990 despite today’s weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI. “Concerns over China’s economy and financial system aren’t likely to be allayed for some weeks, with press reports indicating substantial tolerance of further corporate defaults and the squeeze on spec yuan longs not complete. We are thus still short AUD/USD though the broad range should remain intact at least early in the week: support at the 55 day moving average of 0.8946, resistance at the 200dma at 0.9139”, observed analysts at Westpac Global Strategy Group. AUD/USD key levels The pair is now advancing 0.40% at 0.9119 with the next resistance at 0.9138 (high Mar.19) and then 0.9139 (200-d MA). On the downside, a breach of 0.9032 (low Mar.21) would target 0.9000 (psychological level) en route to 0.8995 (low Mar.20). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD down -0.06% on the day ahead of US Manu PMI FXStreet (Barcelona) - With USD/CAD making a daily high and low at 1.1248 and 1.1206 respectively, spot is currently trading at 1.1215, down -0.06% on the day so far. With a quiet economic calendar today, USD/CAD has been quite passive, and happy to range. Datawise, we have US Markit Manufacturing PMI ahead at 13:45 GMT, with expectations of a Monthly decline from 57.1 to 56.5. USD/CAD technical summary Daily RSI sits at 62.03, in neutral territory. Meanwhile, 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 249 pips and expanding on a daily chart. 13:00-14:00 GMT was the most volatile hour of the day, judging by the average hourly movement of 15 pips over the past four weeks. What are today’s USD/CAD pivot levels? The daily pivot can be found at 1.1215, with support below at S1 1.1213, S2 1.1211 and S3 1.1209, and resistance above at R1 1.1217, R2 1.1219, and R3 1.1221. Further, we can see a hammer like candlestick formation on the monthly chart. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 EUR/USD: Did we over-react last week? - FXStreet FXStreet (Barcelona) - Goncalo Moreira CMT, FXStreet Technical Analyst comments that EUR/USD closed last week with a negative close-to-close performance of -0.85% (-118 pips), the largest weekly performance seen in six weeks. Key Quotes “Add to this the fact that the performance was the first negative one in seven weeks, and the conditions become ripe for a shift in sentiment. Contrary to what we would expect, the turn in the tide didn't cause a lot of dispersion among poll participants. With the expectation of a little rise in the shorter-term horizon, the mid- and longer-term coefficient of variation of the forecasts show a certain degree of consensus, specially the longer-term (3 month ahead) which is at historical lows.” “In the short-term: the central tendency measures, when smoothed together, are pointing below the weekly close (1.3796) at 1.3704. Interestingly, they were pointing at 1.3940, that is above the weekly close (1.3914) in the previous release, failing to predict the following weeks' performance. The result was -as seen in other times- when expectations are not met, there is a shift in the average forecast, this time of 240 pips to the downside.” “Remember that markets are able to discount future scenarios in the present price: therefore, more than being a predictive tool, the longer-term distribution of the participant's values is the one reflecting better the current sentiment. The correlation between the three-month forecasts and the actual close price at the future date stays at 6.38%, that is too low to make it a predictive tool in the long-run. But not in the short-term due to the discounting mechanism.” “In the longer-term we see a migration of many participants from sustaining a bearish bias towards showing a sideways stance. This migration may be due to the lower weekly close which may have turned into “sideways” some of the bearish forecasts from the weeks before. But fact is that there was a surprise.” “What does it mean for traders? Markets were caught by surprise by the hawkish comments from the Fed governor Yellen, following last week’s FOMC meeting, a fact which contrasted with the more dovish than before ECB. In that sense the USD is expected to out-perform the EUR in the long run based on the difference in Central Bank policies (hence the changes in the 3-month forecasts). But we cannot rule out more surprises in the form of economic data from the Euro-zone out-muscling that of U.S., for instance, in which case the euro could climb to 1.40 U.S. dollars and potentially beyond.” “To summarize: the combination of low dispersion with a sideways tilted bias is not the best technical situation in sentiment analysis to make us change our minds just yet. Therefore, I remain cautiously bullish in the short to mid-term awaiting for more surprises telling me that after all we over-reacted last week.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 UK inflation falls to October 2009 low FXStreet (London) - UK CPI has fallen in line with expectations, with February year-on-year inflation declining from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent. The print indicates that UK headline inflation has fallen to its lowest level since October 2009. Core prices rose as had been predicted following two months of softer prints. February year-on-year core CPI rose to 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent last month. Lower fuel prices According to the Office for National Statistics, the slowdown in inflation came primarily from the price movements of motor fuels. Petrol prices fell by 0.8 pence per litre between January and February this year compared with a rise of 4.0 pence per litre between the same two months a year ago. Similarly diesel prices fell by 0.8 pence per litre this year compared with a rise of 3.7 pence per litre a year ago. Sterling climbs on CPI confirmation Sterling has rallied strongly against the euro on the confirmation of what many had expected. EUR/GBP fell to a low of GBP0.8376 immediately following the UK CPI data release by the ONS before seeing some recovery. The pair is currently down 0.12 percent on the session so far at GBP0.8377. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD capped by 0.9160 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The AUD/USD continues its march higher on Tuesday, although the bull run seems to have run out of legs around 0.9160. AUD/USD well supported by 0.9000 A favourable context for risk-associated assets plus the better sentiment around the Aussie as of late would be behind the current rebound from last week’s levels near 0.9000. The domestic docket offers only New Home Sales gauged by HIA (Thursday) of note, although traders would closely follow speeches by RBA’s Lowe (tonight) and Stevens (tomorrow). “A close above .9168 would imply a deeper rally to .9338, the 61.8% retracement”, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank AUD/USD levels to consider At the moment the pair is advancing 0.14% at 0.9145 and a surpass of 0.9150 (high Mar.24) would expose 0.9152 (high Dec.11) and finally 0.9169 (high Dec.2). On the flip side, the initial support aligns at 0.9100 (trendline from April 2013) ahead of 0.9048 (low Mar.24) followed by 0.9032 (low Mar.21). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD: more than words - FXStreet FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst comments that EUR/USD is easing down towards 1.3800 following Bundesbank President Weidmann recent statement. Key Quotes “(He) said negative rates could counter the impact of the strong euro and that QE is not out of the question. Indeed, the European Central Bank is concerned over the currency strength, as the higher the currency moves, the slow will be the economic recovery in the EU.Nevertheless, usually takes more than just words for authorities to be able to change market mind in term.” “Technically, the 4 hours chart shows price testing a flat 20 SMA, currently offering support around the 1.3800 figure, while indicators lost upward potential, and turned lower still in positive territory.200 EMA converges with the 38.2% retracement of its latest bullish run in the 1.3780 area which is the support to break to confirm another run lower, eyeing then 1.3740 in the short term.” “Daily high stands at 1.3846, a few pips below the 23.6% retracement of the same rally at 1.3850, key resistance level as only above the pair will be ready to resume the bullish trend.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD challenging 1.3800 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling pressure has not given up on the single currency on Tuesday, dragging the EUR/USD to a test of the critical support at 1.3800. EUR/USD clings to 1.3800 Mixed data from manufacturing PMIs on Monday plus the same tone from today’s German IFO failed to give further impulse to the EUR. On the negative side, Bundesbank’s Weidmann comments regarding negative rates and quantitative easing in the euro area collaborated with the grim sentiment around spot. Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, suggested “we think the market has peaked and reversed at 1.3850. Losses below 1.3765—trend support, break down point and yesterday’s low more or less—will push the EUR sharply lower”. EUR/USD key levels The pair is now losing 0.20% at 1.3811 with the next support at 1.3804 (low Mar.25) followed by 1.3760 (low Mar.24) and ahead of 1.3749 (low Mar.20). On the flip side, a break above 1.3877 (high Mar.24) would target 1.3935 (high Mar.19) en route to 1.3944 (high Mar.18). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 US 4-Week Bill Auction dipped from previous 0.06% to 0.045% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 26, 2014 Author Share Posted March 26, 2014 US Durable Goods Orders registered at 2.2% to beat forecasts (1%) in February Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD keeps pushing higher FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The AUD keeps its relentless upside on Wednesday, lifting the AUD/USD beyond the 0.9200 mark and posting fresh 2014 highs at the same time. AUD/USD consolidates above 0.9200 After hitting multi-year lows around 0.8660 in late January, spot advanced in five out of the last eight weeks. A (now) neutral stance from the RBA in combination with better economic results from Oz made possible such a rebound, with the scenario now pointing to a stabilization in rates and a probable rate hike towards year-end, or early 2015. In the opinion of analysts at BBH, “The speculators in the futures market are still net short the Aussie, though the net position was cut by about 40% in the week through last Tuesday. This is largely a function of new gross longs entering… The next target for the new Aussie bulls is near $0.9340”. AUD/USD levels to consider A of writing the pair is up 0.70% at 0.9230 with the next resistance at 0.9300 (psychological level) followed by 0.9335 (high Nov.21) and finally 0.9403 (50-d MA). On the downside, a breakdown of 0.9137 (200-d MA) would target 0.9120 (low Mar.25) en route to 0.9100 (psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD rises to nearly 1-week highs at 1.6565 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling climbed to highs since March 20 around 1.6565 against the US dollar as investors are trading in a risk on environment that boosted demand for high yielders. The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.6550, 0.12% positive on the day. The short term perspective remains strongly bullish according to the FXStreet trend index in the 15-minute chart. MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic is neutral. GBP/USD sentiment "But there’s still a long way to go to call for a stronger recovery in Pound," Currency Analyst Valeria Bednarik at FXStreet said. "The pair has remains unable to sustain gains beyond 1.6535, 50% retracement of the same rally, and pulled back to the 1.6520 price zone". If the pair manages to consolidate gains above 1.6550, next resistances are at 1.6565 and 1.6600. On the downside, supports are at 1.6530, 1.6500 and 1.6480. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Obama speech in Brussels: US authorises more exports of gas to the EU FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at the EU summit in Brussels, US President Barack Obama says that the EU will be able to receive as much gas from the US it needs. • Russia didn´t manage to "drive a wedge between Europe and the U.S." the president assures. • The cooperation of US and EU on sanctions against Russia is going well. Further measures are discussed. • Russia´s “isolation will deepen” if it continues in its current course. • "Our commitment to NATO is crucial for US and European national security." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 27, 2014 Author Share Posted March 27, 2014 USD/CHF net on the day FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/CHF has moved in on the downside and we are net on the session, with highs 0.8872 an lows 0.8841. Spot trades 0.8848 at time of writing. Meanwhile, the US came back with Initial Jobless Claims 311k vs 325k consensus and Continuing Jobless Claims 2.823m vs 2.875m consensus. PCE was noted .1% better than expected as well. Recent Fed speak Meanwhile, strategists at Rabobank pointed out that we had Fedspeak that saw Plosser argue that the US economy is in a “Pretty good place”. “He also backed QE ending in autumn, while the second speaker, Bullard, saw a bit more ambiguity on that front”. USD/CHF Levels The 20 DMA is 0.8801, the 50 DMA is 0.8907 and the 200 DMA is 0.9107. RSI (14) reads 59.28. Supports are ascending from 0.8787, 0.8801, 0.8813 and 0.8834. Spot 0.8848 while resistances are 0.8870, 0.8880, 0.8895 and 0.8930 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 USD/CAD rebounds off weekly lows USD/CAD is up 0.17% on the day at 1.1049, having previously posted a daily high at 1.1053 and a low at 1.0998. Stephen Gallo, European Head of Currency Strategy at BMO Capital Markets comments, “The fact that USD/CAD is flashing some important bearish signals cannot be ignored." He continues to add that, "These include the bearish fractal (daily) earlier in the week, the break of trendline support (from the Feb 19th low) and the 12-26 MACD. For those reasons, the 1.105-1.109 range should now provide some very good resistance over the near-term, and that resistance area may extend straight through to ADP and NFPs next week. A surprise easing from the ECB next week may also prevent USDCAD topside somewhat, by weighing on EUR/CAD.” He adds, “At this stage, there doesn’t really seem to be a logical reason for a move below 1.100 support, especially after 5 successive days of lower USD/CAD closes.” USD/CAD Technicals The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. Currently RSI is at 76.52, up from the last hourly print at 56.25, with ADX at 38.72, up from its previous close at 35.84. Meanwhile, daily RSI is in neutral territory at 43.27. A declining 200 SMA on the hourly USD/CAD chart is currently at 1.1070, down from 1.1159 at the previous close. Moving with a downward trend, the exponential average closing price is 1.1118. The hourly USD/CAD chart is showing the 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 54 pips and shrinking, while the ATR (14) is currently at 10 pips. On a daily chart, 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 268 pips. The average movement for the current hour has been for 10 pips per hour, over the last four weeks. 13:00-14:00 GMT was the most volatile hour of the day, judging by the average hourly movement of 42 pips over the past four weeks. USD/CAD Key Levels Current price is 1.1049, with resistance ahead at 1.1051 (Daily Classic PP), 1.1053 (Daily High), 1.1071 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.1088 (Daily Classic R1) and 1.1108 (Yesterday's High). To the downside we see next support at 1.1031 (Weekly Low), 1.1030 (Daily Open), 1.1030 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.1013 (Yesterday's Low) and 1.0998 (Daily Low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 USD/JPY; where did that come from? Up to 102.80 FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has rallied on a weak performing Yen and is challenging upside levels of the mid point of the month. USD/JPY is up on the week as we draw a close to the days gone past which has offered 102.40, and there about, as a tough resistance. Nevertheless, USD/JPY has smashed that into touch and is looking for close on 103 perhaps? The only real explanation here is that equity markets are firm and US bond yields are higher - and of course 1st April means tax hike time! USD/JPY Levels The 20 DMA is 102.26, the 50 DMA is 102.42 and the 200 DMA is 100.56. RSI (14) reads 81.44 Supports are 101.49, 101.67, 101.83, 101.99, 102.34 and 102.49. Spot is 102.71 while next resistance is 102.86 ahead of 103.00’s OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 Tensions around Ukraine keep easing - BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, observes that geopolitical tensions around Russia and Ukraine are diminishing. Key Quotes "Investor concerns over the threat posed by escalating geopolitical tensions related to developments in the Ukraine have also continued to ease in the near-term after US Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met yesterday in Paris with further talks also expected to seek an acceptable outcome to Ukraine. According to Interfax news service, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that he was in agreement with Kerry on “the need to seek common ground on the diplomatic path for an exit from this situation that will meet the interests of the Ukrainian people”." "Russia wants the Ukraine to grant greater powers to its regions, have a non-aligned status outside NATO, and make Russian an official second language. US Secretary of State Kerry stated that “any real progress in the Ukraine must include a pullback of very large Russian force that is currently massing along the Ukraine’s borders”." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted March 31, 2014 Author Share Posted March 31, 2014 USD/CAD testing 1.1000 on data FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar is now gathering pace against its neighbour on Monday, dragging the USD/CAD to test the key barrier at 1.1000. USD/CAD weaker after data, Yellen Spot is extending last week’s deep pullback, testing last Friday’s lows near 1.1000 the figure after Canadian GDP figures surprised to the upside, expanding at a monthly pace of 0.5% vs. forecasts for 0.4%. Next on tap of note will be a speech by Chairwoman J.Yellen. In the opinion of Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, the pair “is adopting a slighter better offered tone as our session gets underway but, with the overhang of CAD short positions reduced, some key data releases ahead and USD-Canada spreads in the short end and belly of the curve still moving towards more USD-supportive levels, we look for limited USD losses and good support near 1.10”. USD/CAD levels to watch The pair is now losing 0.45% at 1.1010 with the next support at 1.1001 (low Mar.28) followed by 1.0962 (Up tL from 1.0271). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1061 (daily cloud top) would aim for 1.1106 (high Mar.27) and finally 1.1140 (daily Kijun). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/CAD tests 1.1000 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CAD declined around 60 pips in the early American morning to test the 1.1000 key level where the pair found support. Now it is pricing back at 1.1020. Having made a daily high at 1.1069 and low at 1.1000, USD/CAD spot is down -0.31% on the day and presently trading at 1.1025. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish. Currently RSI is at 35.06, down from the last hourly print at 38.29, with ADX at 13.34, up from its previous close at 12.78. Looking to momentum indicators, the hourly 200 SMA is currently at 1.1045, down from the last close at 1.1155 and declining. USD/CAD levels With spot trading at 1.1020, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.1031 (Weekly Low), 1.1045 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.1046 (Daily Classic PP), 1.1066 (Daily Open) and 1.1069 (Daily High). To the downside we see next support at 1.1012 (Daily Classic S1), 1.1001 (Daily Low), 1.0998 (Yesterday's Low), 1.0992 (Monthly Low) and 1.0965 (Daily Classic S2). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Yellen's dovish words send dollar down FXStreet (Łódź) - Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who spoke at a conference in Chicago on Monday, defended the central bank's easy monetary policy stance saying that it was aimed at reducing the still considerable slack in the US economy and the labor market. Yellen stressed that the Fed's "extraordinary commitment," to stimulus was still necessary and would be for some more time. She also hinted that interest rates would be kept low for an extended period. The Fed head listed the large numbers of part-time workers and long-term unemployed, low wage growth, and the decline in labor force participation as indications of the continuing slack in the US labor market. She also pointed out that for some Americans the current economic situation was tougher than during the recession. Stocks spiked following Yellen's comments and the EUR/USD jumped to 1.3806. In the opinion of Jamie Coleman from FXBeat “she is trying to change whatever perception there may have been that rates will automatically go up six months after the taper ends this fall.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY taking a nose dive, target 102.85? FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has dived into shallower waters and is testing the 103 handle as next key support through congestion at 103.20. JPY a bad performer Strategists at TD Securities explained that the JPY has been the worst-performing currency over the month and finishes off the poor run with a broad under-performance. USD/JPY Levels The 20 DMA is 102.31, the 50 DMA is 102.39 and the 200 DMA is 100.59. RSI (14) reads 74.75. Supports are ascending from 101.99, 102.25, 102.39, 102.69, and 102.85. Spot is103.02 with resistances at 103.10, 103.25 and 103.43. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 1, 2014 Author Share Posted April 1, 2014 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook missed expectations (16) in 1Q: Actual (13) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 1, 2014 Author Share Posted April 1, 2014 GBP/USD extends the decline to 1.6630 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The offered tone is now intensifying around the sterling, dragging the GBP/USD to session lows near 1.6630. GBP/USD hurt by data The poor result from March’s manufacturing PMI released today (55.3 act. vs. 56.7 exp.) added to Monday’s set of disappointing data from BoE’s mortgage figures and consumer credit, pushing spot from recent highs around 1.6680 to current levels. “GBP-USD is expected to remain mixed, bounded by 1.6600 down south and with 1.6700 likely to serve as a near term resistance”, noted Emmanuel Ng, Strategist at OCBC Bank. Ahead in the week, the next relevant release would be house prices gauged by Nationwide (Wednesday) and the more significant Services PMI (Thursday). GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is retreating 0.14% at 1.6638 and a breakdown of 1.6613 (low Mar.31) would open the door to 1.6599 (low Mar.28). On the flip side, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.6719 (high Mar.13) followed by 1.6745 (high Mar.10) and finally 1.6800 (psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 1, 2014 Author Share Posted April 1, 2014 S&P hits new intraday record high S&P hits new intraday record high S&P 500 rose to a new intraday record high of 1884.46 on Tuesday, following the release of US ISM Manufacturing PMI data which came in weaker than expected, while the Employment Index fell to 9-month low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 0.7% to 16565. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD trading lower today FXStreet (Buenos Aires) - After 6 days in a row of upward impulse, the GBP/USD trades lower this Tuesday affected by a disappointing UK PMI reading. Nevertheless, the movement remains barely corrective, with the pair shedding barely a 20% of its latest gains, anchored above the 1.6600 figure ahead of key major economic releases later this week. Short term bearish potential http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/daily-opportunities/2014/04/01/ According to Isvan Varkonyi from Marketprog Ltd. “the $1,6650 level proves to be problematic. The exchange rate has reached the point where it needs to decide whether it goes for a correction after this gain or if it climbs higher after this brief stagnation. The key levels are at $1,6625, at the support trend line, and at $1,6660. If it breaks down below the former then we should see a correction all the way to $1,66 but in case of a breakout above the latter then the cable might inch higher, targeting the far away rate of $1,6755.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 2, 2014 Author Share Posted April 2, 2014 EUR/JPY extends decline below 143.00 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro is declining against the Japanese Yen and after losing around 75 pips from the 143.50 high priced overnight, the EUR/JPY broke the 143.00 level and now it is trading at daily highs around 142.75. Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 142.87, down -0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 143.50 and low at 142.75. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish. RSI is at 28.71, down from the last hourly print at 44.46, with ADX at 24.22, down from its previous close at 27.96. Looking to momentum indicators, the hourly 200 SMA is currently at 142.67, up from the last close at 141.48 and climbing. EUR/JPY levels Spot is presently trading at 142.88, and next resistance can be seen at 142.97 (Weekly High), 143.04 (Hourly 20 EMA) and 143.10 (Yesterday's High). Support below can be found at 142.75 (Daily Low) and 142.01 (Yesterday's Low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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