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[OctaFX_Farid]

LME copper slips on firmer dollar, Shanghai rises

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - London copper futures edged lower on Friday, hurt by a firmer dollar, after rising more than 1 percent in the previous session on a tighter global supply outlook.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped $22 to $8,543 a tonne by 0119 GMT. But the metal is up marginally for the week so far, its third gain in four weeks.

* The most-traded June copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 0.7 percent to 60,850 yuan ($9,600) a tonne, chasing Thursday's gains in London.

* Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold Inc said first-quarter copper output would be down by about 10 percent because of labor-related problems at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia which will not return to full production until the second quarter.

* LME copper has risen more than 12 percent so far this year, benefitting, like other risk assets, from increased liquidity across markets as central banks around the world ease credit curbs to spur economic growth.

* Copper's price gain comes despite a shaky outlook for demand from top consumer China. Premier Wen Jiabao said on Wednesday China must embrace slower growth and bolder political reform to keep its economy from faltering, and also dampened hopes for any near-term relaxation of curbs in the property sector.

* Aurubis , Europe's biggest copper producer, is confident of strong copper demand from China this year despite forecasts of slower growth in the country.

* RUSAL Plc <0486.HK>, the world's largest aluminum company, is expected to pick a new chairman on Friday to steady a ship still rocking from the parting shot fired by Viktor Vekselberg, who said it was in "deep crisis".

* For the top stories in metals and other news, click , or

MARKETS NEWS

* The dollar rose against a basket of currencies <.DXY>, with the greenback's upward momentum seen intact amid a brightening U.S. outlook.

* The S&P 500 closed above 1,400 for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis on Thursday as stocks resumed the upward climb that has produced a steady stream of gains this year. <.N>

* U.S. crude futures rose on Friday, after dropping for two straight sessions, as robust economic data in the world's top oil consumer countered news that the United States and Britain were preparing a release from strategic oil stocks this year.

Mar 16, 2012 02:56

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Euro, shares dip as growth worries revive

LONDON (Reuters) -The euro dipped to just below recent highs and European stocks fell on Tuesday amid concern about the scale of China's growth slowdown, while investors eyed crucial talks between Italy's government and unions on labor reforms.

Prime Minister Mario Monti's meeting with union bosses could make or break his brief tenure as head of a government struggling to pay down massive debts and find ways to revive an economy in which factory output has fallen sharply.

Ahead of the meeting, equity investors were trimming positions after shares rose to eight-month peaks on signs of a recovery in the giant U.S. economy and after big improvements in corporate balance sheets.

"Strategically, I am bullish on equities," Neil Dwane, chief investment officer for Europe at Allianz Global Investors/RCM, said.

"The thing is that they have rallied quite a long way, so it's harder to be as confident when you think: have we solved any of the economic issues?"

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> was down 0.5 percent at 1,099.71 points after snapping a four-session winning streak on Monday that saw it touch levels last seen in July.

Traders' growing nervousness about the outlook could be seen in the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index <.V2TX>, a key gauge of sentiment, which jumped 4.3 percent after three days of falls. The higher the volatility index, the lower the investor appetite to take on more risk.

RECOVERY HOPES IN THE BALANCE

Meanwhile U.S. Treasury yields, which have risen sharply in the past week on the improved U.S. economic outlook and reduced expectations of further monetary easing in the near term, also dipped on Tuesday but the fall was expected to be short lived.

"I think that movement (in U.S. Treasury yields)...is definitely a confirmation that the market is switching much more in terms of its mentality towards a recovery mentality," Graham Neilson, chief investment strategist at Cairn Capital said.

"I think yields are going to go higher from here as well."

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which moves inversely to price, stood at 2.35 percent after rising as high as 2.392 percent on Monday, its highest level since late October.

German government bond yields followed Treasuries and dipped slightly as investors were lured back into the market after 10-year yields broke last week above 2 percent, the upper end of the year's trading range to that point.

Among the weaker euro zone economies, Italian bonds rose on wariness about the labor talks, and 10-year yields were last up 4.2 bps at 4.88 percent.

The equivalent Spanish yield was up 4 bps at 5.21 percent after ratings agency Moody's said Spain's fiscal outlook remained challenging despite recently softened deficit targets.

Commodities were broadly weaker, with base and precious metals both edging down after the worries about a sharp slowdown in China grew when BHP Billiton , the world's biggest miner, noted signs of "flattening" iron ore demand there.

Earlier this month China cut its 2012 growth target to an eight-year low of 7.5 percent, fuelling caution about demand for natural resources and heightening fears the euro zone crisis would hit global growth.

Mar 20, 2012

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Dollar gains broadly as growth currencies slip

LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar index climbed against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, helped by higher U.S. Treasury yields, while growth-linked currencies came under pressure from concerns China's demand for raw materials could be slowing.

Global miner BHP Billiton said it saw signs growth in iron ore demand was flattening in China, Australia's single biggest export market, pushing the Australian dollar more than 1 percent lower on the day to $1.0488.

"The (U.S.) dollar looks better bid against the euro and the yen. Interest rate expectations do seem to be gaining a bit more traction on the currency," said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at HSBC.

"But it strikes me the move in the Australian dollar may be a bit overdone. I would think it's a good idea to buy Aussie on these dips."

The dollar index <.DXY> rose 0.3 percent to 79.692, recovering from a one-week low hit the previous day. Analysts said much of the greenback's recent surge was due to improving U.S. data and a modest brightening of the U.S. Federal Reserve's economic outlook in its latest policy statement.

That spurred a rise in U.S. Treasury yields as investors scaled back expectations of further quantitative easing in the near term, and prompted some speculation the Fed may tighten monetary policy earlier than it had pledged.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to as high as 2.392 percent on Monday, its highest level since late October. The two-year Treasury yield was last trading at roughly 0.367 percent, in sight of last week's peak of 0.414 percent which was the highest since late July.

But some strategists said the move in the greenback and U.S. Treasury yields could soon run out of steam.

"The recent dollar rally has been based on unrealistic expectations for U.S. rates and I don't think it is well founded," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

"The market is priced for rate hikes much earlier than the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) has indicated."

ITALY TALKS EYED

The euro eased 0.3 percent to $1.3196, slipping away from a one-week high near $1.3266 hit on Monday and below support from the 100-day moving average around $1.3199.

Some investors were cautious about pushing the shared currency higher ahead of talks between Italy's government and unions on reforms seen as key to turning around the euro zone's third largest economy and paying down massive debts.

There have been some signs of stabilization in the euro zone sovereign bond market this year, with the 10-year Italian government bond yield spread over German Bunds standing at 286 basis points on Tuesday, down from 535 basis points on January 9.

But concerns remained that Portugal may eventually need to restructure its debt like Greece, prompting another flare up in the crisis, while Italy is potentially a far bigger worry.

Moves in the dollar versus the yen picked up in European trade after a quiet Asian session when Japanese financial markets were closed for a national holiday.

Mar 20, 2012 09:17

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Copper falls on China demand concerns, dollar strength

LONDON (Reuters) - Copper fell on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened and equities markets retreated and after BHP Billiton , the world's biggest miner, raised concerns about the possibility of a sharp slowdown in iron ore demand from top metals consumer China.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was $8,408 per ton in official rings from a close of $8,570 on Monday. It was down more than 2 percent after U.S. housing data, before recouping some of those losses.

U.S. housing starts fell last month, but permits for future construction jumped to their highest level since October 2008, according to a government report that showed steady improvement in the housing market.

"There is a big difference between permits being awarded, and building taking place, but the housing data should be notionally positive," Citi analyst David Wilson said.

"There are still concerns that China is slowing and not consuming as much copper, that's definitely been an issue," he added.

The metal, used extensively in construction, hit its highest in two weeks at $8,690 on Friday and is up more than 12 percent this year, but has struggled to breach that level.

"It's choppy within a range. It's partly dollar strength, but also I suspect a rather more cautious commentary from BHP," BNP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs said.

"There is a slowing trend in China...moving increasingly away from the growth model that they have had, which may be a little less metals intensive. This is not new, but recognition by big mining companies would have had an effect."

Australian iron ore miners, key beneficiaries of China's modern-day industrial revolution, signaled on Tuesday demand growth was finally slowing in response to Beijing's moves to cool its economy.

BHP Billiton said it was seeing signs of "flattening" iron ore demand from China, though for now it was pushing ahead with ambitious plans to expand production.

Official Chinese data last week showed home prices fell in February from January for a fifth consecutive month, and the government reaffirmed its commitment to measures to control the property market to cool speculation.

China accounts for 40 percent of global refined copper demand. Copper is used mostly in building construction and power.

Demand in the world's biggest copper consumer has not picked up after the Lunar New Year holiday in late January, prompting importers to delay some term shipments, traders have said.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies, supported by safe-haven demand as risk sentiment soured, partly because of concerns that a slowdown in China could hit global growth. <.DXY>

Gains in the dollar can pressure dollar-denominated commodities by making them more expensive for consumers using other currencies.

European stocks fell on the scale of China's growth slowdown, and investors eyed talks between Italy's government and unions on reforms seen key to turning around the euro zone's third-largest economy.

Nickel, used in steelmaking, was $18,825 in rings from $19,050 at Monday's close. It is the worst performing base metal in the complex so far this year, and is up around 1.6 percent, compared with copper's 12 percent rise.

"Exchange inventories have risen over 8 percent and Chinese premiums remain weak," RBC Base Metals said about nickel in a research note. "That said, a move below $18,000 will begin to see a supply-side response."

Zinc, used to galvanize steel, was untraded in rings, but bid at $2,041 from $2,079.

Tin, also untraded, was bid at $23,200 from $23,595, lead was bid at $2,062 from $2,108. Aluminum was $2,239 in rings from $2,275.

LME aluminum stocks are near record highs at more than 5 million ton, but most of the metal is locked up in financing deals and not available for sale.

The large stockpile, and the economic slowdown in Europe, has hurt aluminum prices, spurring global producers such as Rio Tinto , Alcoa and Norsk Hydro , to cut production.

Metal Prices at 1337 GMT Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T

Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct

move

COMEX Cu 382.80 -7.90 -2.02 444.70 -13.92

LME Alum 2243.00 -32.00 -1.41 2470.00 -9.19

LME Cu 8400.00 -170.00 -1.98 9600.00 -12.50

LME Lead 2057.00 -51.00 -2.42 2550.00 -19.33

LME Nickel 18806.00 -244.00 -1.28 24750.00 -24.02

LME Tin 23251.00 -344.00 -1.46 26900.00 -13.57

LME Zinc 2036.25 -42.75 -2.06 2454.00 -17.02

SHFE Alu 16265.00 -10.00 -0.06 16840.00 -3.41

SHFE Cu* 60350.00 50.00 +0.08 71850.00 -16.01

SHFE Zin 15885.00 10.00 +0.06 19475.00 -18.43 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

Mar 20, 2012 10:13

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[OctaFX_Farid]

China growth worries weigh on stocks, boost Treasuries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renewed concerns about China's economic growth weighed on global stocks on Tuesday, giving a boost to safe-haven U.S. government bonds and the dollar.

U.S. crude oil prices dropped nearly 2 percent as increased supply from Saudi Arabia and a return to pre-war exports from Libya eased pressure on the market.

Concerns about the scale of China's economic slowdown resurfaced as BHP Billiton , the world's largest miner, said it was seeing signs of "flattening" iron ore demand from the country.

U.S. stock indexes traded more than half a percentage point lower after a rally on Monday drove the S&P 500 to a level less than 10 percent shy of its 2007 all-time high.

"It seems like a market that probably just needs to take a rest, but I wouldn't be surprised (if) we rally into the day," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

"It is now a focus back on the fundamentals on the economy and those news items aren't quite as daunting. It's really just fine tuning."

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:DJI) was down 66.41 points, or 0.50 percent, at 13,172.72. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 6.54 points, or 0.46 percent, at 1,403.21. The Nasdaq Composite Index (NAS:COMP) was down 20.25 points, or 0.66 percent, at 3,058.07.

The S&P 500 has gained more than 11 percent so far this year as a steady flow of strong U.S. economic data encouraged stock investors. Tuesday's U.S. housing data was mixed, however, with housing starts falling in February, but permits for future construction jumping to the highest level since October 2008.

World stocks measured by the MSCI All-Country World Index <.MIWD00000PUS> dropped 0.76 percent, after closing on Monday near levels last seen in late July.

In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> fell 0.9 percent as autos and miners were hit by worries of a Chinese economic slowdown.

"Stocks are being driven down on reports of major discounts amongst the luxury good car brands in China and comments about weak iron ore demand," said Richard Batty, strategist at Standard Life Investments, with $248.37 billion of assets under management.

The dollar rose 0.1 percent against a basket of major trading-partner currencies, according to the U.S. Dollar Index <.DXY>, as Chinese economic worries weighed on growth-related currencies.

The euro, however, was stable against the greenback at $1.3233.

U.S. crude oil prices dropped 1.6 percent to $106.78 a barrel, also pressured by the strength of the dollar, which makes the commodity more expensive to non-U.S. investors.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were trading 1/32 higher in price to yield 2.37 percent, down from 2.38 percent late Monday, while 30-year bonds gained 11/32 to yield 3.46 percent, down from 3.48 percent. hitting a 2-1/2 week high of 79.739.

Mar 20, 2012 10:42

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[OctaFX_Farid]

FOREX: Pound Aiming Higher Against Euro, Yen on BOE Minutes Result

The British Pound is likely to rise against the Euro and Japanese Yen if the BOE meeting minutes show fewer calls for additional QE at the March meeting.

Talking Points

 

• Pound to Rise Against Euro, Yen if BOE Minuets Show Dovish Camp Shrank
  
• Dollar May Rise Alongside Stocks as US Existing Home Sales Hit 22-Month High
  
• Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota Says Stimulus Unwind May Come in 2012-13
  

 

Minutes from the March meeting of the Bank of England headline the economic calendar in European hours. The outcome may prove narrowly supportive for the British Pound in that the ultra-dovish voting pattern seen in February is unlikely to be repeated this time around. While it wasn’t surprising to see perennial dove Adam Posen vote for an increase in asset purchases, the addition of David Miles to calls for more stimulus was significant. This produced a 7-2 tally in favor of the status quo but planted expectations of an apparently growing pro-QE insurgency.

In March, Mr Posen may have found himself alone once more as UK economic data broadly performed at its best since May 2010 relative to expectations. If the vote count is revealed at 7-1 or even the unlikely 7-0, traders are likely to reduce bets on further QE over the near term and offer Sterling a boost, with outsized gains expected against the Euro and Japanese Yen (where monetary policy is likely to be least supportive over the coming months). The updated UK Budget is also set to be presented to Parliament. A smaller deficit is likely to reduce bond issuance expectations and lift Gilt yields, encouraging the Pound higher in the process, and vice versa.

On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are pushing firmly higher, hinting risk appetite is likely to be well-supported heading into the opening bell on Wall Street as traders await US Existing Home Sales figures, where forecasts point to the highest reading in 22 months at 4.61 million. What this means for the US Dollar is no longer as clear-cut as it has been even recently however. Indeed, as we observed last week, supportive economic news has been able to produce gains for the S&P 500 and the greenback alike, reflecting the recent responsiveness of Fed officials to the apparently firming recovery.

Thegreenbackcorrected lower against its major counterparts in overnight trade as the benchmark currency digested recent gains. USD added 0.5 percent on average yesterday as fears of a slowdown in China and its impact on global output at large stoked safe-haven demand. Hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota – who served on the rate-setting FOMC in 2011 before rotating out this and who thereby is surely familiar with most inner workings of current policy – likewise helped. Kocherlakota said the Fed may begin to unwind monetary stimulus as soon as this year or in 2013.

Mar 21, 2012 08:21

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Euro gains versus yen, steady against dollar

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro reached a near five-month high versus the yen and held steady against the dollar on Wednesday as the Greek bailout appeared to progress, prompting some investors to pare back bets against the single currency.

Many analysts said the approval had been seen as a formality but signs the Greek bailout was on track boosted the euro zone common currency.

Further gains could be capped if a stronger dollar trend driven by higher Treasury yields reasserts itself. The euro could run out of steam above $1.33, especially if euro zone purchasing managers surveys on Thursday come in weak.

The euro rose to an almost two-week high of $1.3284, according to Reuters data, after Greece's lawmakers approved the country's second bailout deal, as expected. It was last little changed at $1.3224.

"Greek parliamentary support for the new 130-billion-euro bailout package is encouraging"," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto. "Tomorrow's PMIs will be important, as recent data has pointed to some stability in several European economies and the PMI will help confirm this, which would be positive for the euro."

Technical analysts said the euro rally was likely to run out of steam around $1.33, just above the 61.8 percent retracement of its late February to mid-March fall.

"There has been an easing in general concerns about euro zone liquidity and the creditworthiness of euro zone banks, plus euro short positions can carry on being unwound," said Adrian Schmidt, currency strategist at Lloyds in London.

He saw potential for the euro to rise towards $1.35 against the dollar, around the top of its recent range, although short-term resistance at $1.3320 may prove too high a hurdle if Thursday's preliminary PMI data comes in weak.

Investors remained wary of the risk of another flare-up in the euro zone debt crisis. Greece got its first batch of bailout payments this week, but the Italian government looked set to clash with unions over employment law reforms.

A firmer dollar, due to fading expectations of more monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve after a modest brightening of its economic outlook, may also hamper the euro.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields were last trading around 2.3393 percent, within sight of a near five-month high touched this week.

U.S. housing data, due at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), could boost the dollar if it adds to expectations that growth in the world's largest economy is picking up.

WEAK YEN, UK BUDGET

Rising U.S. yields and monetary easing from the Bank of Japan last month have boosted the dollar, particularly against the yen. The greenback rose 0.4 percent to 84.02 yen, just shy of an 11-month high touched last week.

During the Asian session Japanese exporters were seen selling the dollar ahead of the end of their financial year on March 31, but market players said there was good demand to buy the greenback on dips.

The euro also hit a near five-month peak of 111.43 yen, according to Reuters data, nearing resistance around the peak hit on October 31, when Japanese authorities last intervened in the market. It was last at 111.07, up 0.3 percent.

Mar 21, 2012 12:19

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Japanese Yen Gains as Export Data Outperforms Forecasts

The Japanese Yen rose as the country’s exporting sector performed better than expected, weighing on the likelihood of near-term BOJ currency intervention.

THE TAKEAWAY: Merchandise Trade Balance rose to ¥ 32.9 Billion from -¥ 1476.9 Billion > Traders Bought Yen as the Chance for Further BOJ Inflationary Action in the FX Market Diminished > USDJPY Fell

Data released by the Ministry of Finance and the Customs Office showed that the merchandise trade balance in February rose to 32.9 billion Yenfrom -1476.9 billion Yen. The figure surpassed the -120 billion Yen deficit that analysts expected. Additionally, trade exports fell only 2.7 percent on the year, beating the 6.5 percent drop forecasted and improving upon the 9.3 percent decline the prior year.

The figures painted a rosier than expected picture of an export-dominated Japanese economy and jumped on bears who forecasted a larger drop in the country’s export sector. Though the data did not go as far as suggesting a warming exports industry, they did show the market that Japanese exporters were not faring as poorly as analysts thought. As exports performed better than expected, the likelihood declined that the Bank of Japan would infuse currency markets with more Yen anytime in the near future. As a result, traders positioned themselves closer to the Yen. In the minutes after the release, USDJPY fell from 83.440 to as low as 83.140.

Mar 22, 2012 00:49

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 03.22

EUR/USD: The market has been well supported on the latest dip towards key support at 1.2975 and the subsequent bounce back above 1.3100 delays bearish prospects and opens the door for additional consolidation over the coming days. The key levels to watch above and below come in by 1.3315 and 1.2975 respectively and a break and close above or below will be required for clearer directional bias. In the interim we remain sidelined.

Mar 22, 2012 00:49

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USD Rises but Mounting Global Risks Keeps FX Pressured

With the U.S. dollar and the Japanese Yen being the best performing currencies this morning, it is clear that mounting risks in the financial markets has raised the level of fear. A series of negative economic reports overnight from China, the Eurozone and the U.K. was compounded by softer data from Canada. Retail sales rose 0.5 percent in January, which a marked an improvement from flat growth in December but was a major a disappointment compared to the market's 1.8 percent forecast. Excluding auto purchases, sales declined by 0.5 percent.

The U.S. only country that continues to print good news. Jobless claims dropped to its lowest level since February 2008. Weekly claims fell 5k to 348k after a downward revision to the prior's week report. The level of jobless claims is consistent with continued job growth in the U.S. economy and as long as claims remain below 375k on a weekly basis, there is no reason for the Fed to be overly concerned. The recovery is still "frustratingly slow" according to Bernanke but currency traders are satisfied that the U.S. economy is improving at all. U.S. leading indicators will be released later this morning and with claims falling and stocks rising, we expect another positive report.

The U.S. dollar is outperforming every major currency except for the Yen because better than expected U.S. data and risk aversion is a win win for the dollar. The string of weaker economic economic data outside of the U.S. has made America look a shining star to investors. Fed President Bullard's comment about the higher risk of inflation this year also helped to lift the greenback.

If bad news begets more bad news abroad, we could see greater demand for dollars. The Chinese government has officially come to terms with slower growth and while their economy may be able to handle it, the Australian and New Zealand economies may not. If Chinese demand pulls back more than it has already, the Reserve Bank of Australia may have to lower interest rates over the next few months and this risk has drive the Australian dollar sharply lower. At the same time, the Eurozone is suffering from weaker domestic and external demand. The sharp decline in the PMI reports flashes signs of a technical recession in the Eurozone. 48 hours ago, we penned a report talking about how the dollar can't lose because even if the U.S. recovery loses momentum, the outlook for other countries is even worse. In Europe, the rise in Italian and Spanish 10 year bond yields raises fresh concerns about the funding capacity of the Eurozone’s #3 and #4 economies. If the EUR/USD will have a very tough time recovering if European bond yields continue to rise.

Mar 22, 2012 00:49

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Australian Dollar Sold as Dovish RBA Cuts Hopes for Future Rate Hike

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks hit their lowest in over a week on Thursday and Wall Street was set open in the red as manufacturing slumps in China and the euro zone fuelled global growth concerns.

The downbeat data triggered flows back into safe-haven assets that boosted German government debt, while it also sent the euro lower and left the common currency looking vulnerable to further losses.

The HSBC flash Purchasing Managers' Index, the earliest indicator of China's industrial activity, fell to 48.1 in March from February's four-month high of 49.6.

The euro zone's leading economies Germany and France both reported an unexpected contraction in manufacturing activity. [nL9E7J203Z], sending Markit's Composite PMI for the region down to 48.7 in March from 49.3 in February.

Anything below 50 is viewed as a contraction.

"When you get numbers like this out of the euro zone it definitely puts the growth outlook into question and points to a mild recession," said Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen.

"There should be a widening of rate differentials in favor of the dollar, so a lower euro/dollar will be the result".

MSCI's main world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS> fell 0.4 percent to its lowest in eight days after hitting its highest level since August earlier in the week.

U.S. stock index futures <.NDc1> pointed to losses of 0.5-0.6 percent at the Wall Street open.

Recent comments by the U.S. Federal Reserve have cut expectations of further quantitative easing, or asset buying. Previous rounds of QE had supported risky assets.

"Everyone was so focused on Greece and the debt crisis is still on everyone's mind, but attention is focusing back on to fundamentals," said DZ Bank rate strategist Michael Leister.

"The PMIs alone don't make for such a big story but they fit into the bigger picture risk-off theme that we're seeing."

European stocks <.FTEU3> weakened for a fourth straight session, heading for their longest negative run in four months. They fell 1 percent to 10-day lows and emerging stocks <.MSCIEF> fell 0.4 percent to two-week lows.

The euro dropped 0.4 percent against the dollar to $1.3162 and 1 percent against the yen to 109.

The dollar lost 0.7 percent to 82.79 yen although it gained 0.2 percent against a basket of major currencies <.DXY>.

Brent crude oil was down 0.5 percent at $123.55 a barrel.

Mar 06, 2012 04:09

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Stocks slip on growth worries, bonds rise

NEW YORK (Reuters) - World stocks drifted lower on Friday, pulled down by a decline in U.S. home sales as concerns about global growth cooled enthusiasm.

Commodity prices ticked higher on the belief the prior day's sell-off in risk assets was overdone.

The Commerce Department said sales of new single-family homes slipped 1.6 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted 313,000-unit annual rate. January's sales pace was revised down to 318,000 units from the previously reported 321,000 units.

U.S. government debt prices rose for the fourth day in a row, reversing more of last week's losses, as concerns about the economic picture in China and Europe competed with improved U.S. employment for investors' attention.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 18/32 in price to yield 2.21 percent.

Wall Street opened mixed, but then fell on the U.S. home sales. European and global stock indices were lower.

The belief that equity markets have gained to much in too short a time has dampened investor sentiment. The benchmark S&P 500, on track for its first weekly decline in six weeks, has gained more than 10 percent so far this year and almost 30 percent since its October lows.

"We are all looking for a correction in the markets and that is what we are getting at the moment," said Frank Lesh, a futures analyst and broker at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago.

"It's not a deep and serious correction, but we were a bit overbought and we could just move sideways to slightly lower to correct that, and it appears that is what we are doing."

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:DJI) was down 11.24 points, or 0.09 percent, at 13,034.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (MXP:SPX) was down 1.68 points, or 0.12 percent, at 1,391.10. The Nasdaq Composite Index (NAS:COMP) was down 13.33 points, or 0.44 percent, at 3,049.99.

The MSCI world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS> was off 0.1 percent, while a measure of top European stocks <.FTEU3> lost 0.8 percent and emerging markets <.MSCIEF> fell 0.5 percent.

The dollar has been supported by an improving U.S. economic landscape that contrasts with the euro zone, where most economies are either teetering on the brink of or in recession.

The euro was up 0.37 percent at $1.3245, and the U.S. Dollar Index <.DXY> down 0.36 percent at 79.448.

The relationship between risk appetite and the dollar has become more complicated, according to Chris Fernandes, vice president, senior foreign exchange adviser for the capital markets division at Bank of the West in San Ramon, California.

"Whereas in the past the dollar would tend to fall as risk appetite was rising, the dollar is now benefiting from pro-risk developments, as U.S. economic data has generally bested expectations recently," he said.

Brent oil was up $1.84 at $124.98 a barrel, underpinned by worries that military conflict with Iran will hit supplies and create an oil price spike.

U.S. light sweet crude oil rose $1.30 to $106.65 a barrel. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index <.CRB> of leading commodity prices was up 0.6 percent at 314.04.

Mar 23, 2012 10:29

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Euro up versus dollar, yen as Bernanke fans QE hopes

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro advanced against the dollar and the yen on Monday as weaker-than-expected U.S. data and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's cautious comments on the job market spurred hopes for more easing ahead, boosting riskier assets.

The single currency hit a better than three-week high against the greenback and jumped more than 1 percent against the yen.

Bernanke's warning that the U.S. economy needs to grow faster to get the unemployment rate down boosted hopes early in the session that the bank could yet conduct another round of quantitative easing.

Disappointing home sales data reinforced that outlook later on Monday, with contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly falling in February.

"All this left the market with the nagging thought that the Fed is not quite done with economic stimulus," said Boris Schlossberg, director of FX Research at GFT in Jersey City, New Jersey. "I think they have not in any way, shape or form eliminated that possibility."

News from Europe also helped the single currency, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel giving veiled approval to an expected increase in the region's financial firewall this week, with finance ministers meeting in Copenhagen on March 30-31.

The euro advanced 0.41 percent to $1.3325 on Monday and touched its highest since March 1. Against the yen the single currency jumped as high as 110.54 yen before more recently trading at 110.37 yen, up 1.01 percent.

The dollar also slid against the Swiss franc, off 0.39 percent to 0.9042 francs.

Still, analysts said the region's debt crisis is far from over. A number of events this week could help clarify how well policymakers are managing those problems, including bond auctions in Italy and Spain's budget on Friday. Italy is seeking to raise up to 7.5 billion euros amid renewed pressure on peripheral euro zone debt.

Worries are also growing about Spain after a government setback in regional elections, making Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's task of pushing through harsh spending cuts more difficult.

"Really we've made a big stride but we haven't actually solved the problems" in the euro zone, said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital. The euro could see recurring bouts of selling through the year as those worries persist, she added.

DOLLAR FIRMER AGAINST YEN

The dollar advanced against the Japanese currency, gaining 0.62 percent to 82.82 yen.

Traders said they would prefer to buy the dollar and sell the yen, with repatriation inflows ahead of the Japanese fiscal year-end on March 31 unlikely to change the bearish sentiment toward the Japanese currency over the medium term.

"We are expecting the dollar/yen pair to trade in a 80-85 yen range with a risk of an upside break. A lot will depend on whether the economies outside the U.S. also pick up," said Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS Global Banking.

"As long as the U.S. economy shows signs of outperforming the others, the dollar would be supported."

The growth-linked Australian dollar was up 0.64 percent at $1.0525 after a fall last week.

Mar 22, 2012 00:49

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Dollar falls against euro after Bernanke comments

Dollar falls against euro after Bernanke says US job market is still weak

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar fell sharply against the euro Monday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the U.S. job market is still weak despite recent signs that it is improving.

Traders interpreted Bernanke's comments to mean that the Fed will keep interest rates near zero. Lower interest rates tend to weigh on a currency by reducing the returns investors get from holding it.

Bernanke's comments were made during a speech at the National Association for Business Economics.

The euro rose to $1.3333 in afternoon trading from $1.3263 late Friday.

The central bank has kept interest rates near zero since cutting them during the financial crisis in December 2008. The Fed keeps rates low in order to help the economy recover.

Despite improvements in the job market, Bernanke said that he doesn't expect the unemployment rate to keep falling. Employers added an average of 245,000 jobs a month from December through February. And the unemployment rate was at 8.3 percent in February, down from 9 percent during the same month a year ago.

In other trading, the British pound rose to $1.5926 from $1.5871. The dollar fell to 0.9034 Swiss franc from 0.9086 Swiss franc and to 99.22 Canadian cents from 99.85 Canadian cents.

The dollar rose to 82.77 Japanese yen from 82.49 yen.

Mar 26, 2012 15:49

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Euro gains versus dollar, yen; Bernanke triggers new quantitative easing talk

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro advanced against the dollar and yen for a second straight day on Monday as weaker-than-expected U.S. data and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's cautious comments on the job market spurred expectations for more policy easing.

The single currency hit a better than three-week high against the greenback and jumped more than 1 percent against the yen. Still, analysts said the euro zone's debt crisis was far from over and the currency could come under pressure this week.

Bernanke's warning that the U.S. economy needs to grow faster to get unemployment down led investors to take on more risk on hopes the central bank could conduct another round of quantitative easing.

Disappointing home sales data reinforced that outlook later on Monday, with contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly falling in February.

"All this left the market with the nagging thought that the Fed is not quite done with economic stimulus," said Boris Schlossberg, director of FX Research at GFT in Jersey City, New Jersey. "I think they have not in any way, shape or form eliminated that possibility."

News from Europe also helped the single currency, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel giving veiled approval to an expected increase in the region's financial firewall this week, with finance ministers meeting in Copenhagen on March 30-31.

The euro advanced 0.5 percent to $1.3331 on Monday and touched its highest since March 1. Against the yen the single currency jumped as high as 110.54 yen before more recently trading at 110.44 yen, up 1.1 percent.

The dollar also slid against the Swiss franc, off 0.5 percent to 0.9035 francs. The dollar's session trough against the Swiss franc was the lowest since March 2, according to Reuters data

A number of events this week could help clarify how well policymakers are managing problems in the euro zone. They include bond auctions in Italy and Spain's budget on Friday. Italy hopes to raise up to 7.5 billion euros amid renewed pressure on peripheral euro zone debt.

Worries are also growing about Spain after a government setback in regional elections, making Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's task of pushing through harsh spending cuts more difficult.

"Really we've made a big stride but we haven't actually solved the problems" in the euro zone, said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital. The euro could see recurring bouts of selling through the year as those worries persist, she added.

DOLLAR FIRMER AGAINST YEN

The dollar advanced against the Japanese currency, gaining 0.6 percent to 82.81 yen.

Traders said they would prefer to buy the dollar and sell the yen, with repatriation inflows ahead of the Japanese fiscal year-end on March 31 unlikely to change the bearish sentiment toward the Japanese currency over the medium term.

"We are expecting the dollar/yen pair to trade in a 80-85 yen range with a risk of an upside break. A lot will depend on whether the economies outside the U.S. also pick up," said Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS Global Banking.

"As long as the U.S. economy shows signs of outperforming the others, the dollar would be supported."

The growth-linked Australian dollar was up 0.5 percent at $1.0514, recouping some of last week's 1.2 percent decline.

Mar 26, 2012 18:35

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OECD pushes for $1.3 trillion eurozone crisis fund

OECD head urges euro countries to boost crisis fund to $1.3 trillion-plus to aid growth

BRUSSELS (AP) -- The 17 countries that use the euro need to build a €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) firewall to help the struggling currency union return to growth, the head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday.

Angel Gurria, the secretary-general of the Paris-based international development body, said existing plans for a €500 billion ($664 billion) European rescue fund were not enough to restore market confidence in the eurozone.

"The mother of all firewalls should be in place," Gurria he told a news conference in Brussels, where he was flanked by Olli Rehn, the EU's economic affairs commissioner, who has also been pushing for a larger bailout fund.

A permanent bailout fund of at least €1 trillion would give governments the breathing space to focus on kickstarting growth and restoring the competitiveness of their economies, Gurria added.

As well as shoring up the financial defenses, the OECD chief pointed to a raft of economic reforms that individual countries should enact. According to the organization's annual report for the eurozone, which was released Tuesday, vulnerable states may need more than €1 trillion in aid over the coming two years and Gurria said eurozone finance ministers should take a decision to boost their bailout funds at their meeting in Copenhagen on Friday.

Germany, the bloc's largest economy, signaled on Monday that it would support an increase to around €700 billion ($929 billion), but only until some €200 billion in loans already promised to Greece, Ireland and Portugal have been paid back.

That falls below the recommendation of the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, the European Union's executive. Both organizations believe a much bigger firewall will keep a lid on the pressure on Italy and Spain, the eurozone's third- and fourth-largest economies, which have a combined debt load of more than €2.5 trillion.

"I am of the view that when you are dealing with markets you should overshoot," Gurria said.

Germany's proposal may also not be enough to convince other large non-euro economies, such as China and the U.S., to give the IMF more resources, money that could be used to further protect Europe.

Asked about the chances that Gurria's €1 trillion goal could actually be achieved on Friday, Rehn declined to give a clear answer.

"I am confident that we can reach a convincing decision," he said, adding that discussions between euro states were still ongoing.

Countries like Germany fear that easy access to financial support could stop countries from implementing reforms. They also point to the recent stabilization in financial markets. Credit for that has been given to the European Central Bank, which has pumped more than €1 trillion in cheap long-term loans into European banks.

The OECD's Gurria warned of the perils of overconfidence.

"We can still clearly not draw too much comfort from these signs of healing," he said, noting that there had been other brief moments of respite in Europe's two-year-old debt crisis.

He warned that funding costs in several euro countries remain unsustainable, and — in what appeared to be a clear reference to Spain — have been creeping up again in recent weeks.

Gurria also suggested that the ECB could intervene more aggressively in the bond markets of struggling countries if market pressures resurface — a step that the central bank has been reluctant to take so far.

Mar 27, 2012 08:56

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Stocks hit 8-month high, dollar bounces back

NEW YORK (Reuters) - World stocks touched an eight-month high on Tuesday, while the dollar rebounded from the previous day's losses a day after the Federal Reserve signaled it would continue its loose monetary policy.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro and the yen after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's dovish comments sent it tumbling in the previous session.

U.S. stocks were little changed after a more than 1 percent rally lifted the S&P 500 to a four-year high on Monday.

"Bernanke yesterday talked about the need for aggressive monetary policy and the dollar took a pretty good whack, so it's probably clawing some of that back," said Art Hogan, managing director of Lazard Capital Markets in New York.

Bernanke said Monday accommodative monetary policy would stay in place to support demand and, over time, drive down long-term unemployment. He stopped short of signaling the start of a new round of asset purchases by the Fed.

The S&P 500 is on track to close its best quarter since 2009 and its fourth straight month of gains. MSCI's main global stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was up 0.2 percent after hitting its highest level since August 1.

"Last week markets tried to price in a global economic slowdown but we're now seeing a slowdown, but not one that is unexpected," Hogan said. "We still believe there's a soft landing in China, Europe has stabilized and the U.S. continues to chug along at a sustainable rate."

In morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) dipped 4.80 points, or 0.04 percent, to 13,236.83. The S&P 500 Index (.INX) shed 0.14 point, or 0.01 percent, to 1,416.37. The Nasdaq Composite (NAS:^COMP) gained 4.30 points, or 0.14 percent, to 3,126.87.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 (FSI:^E3X) fell 0.5 percent, while U.S. dollar-denominated Nikkei futures jumped 1.2 percent.

A private sector report showed U.S. consumer confidence dipped in March but was nearly in line with forecasts, while inflation expectations rose to the highest in 10 months.

U.S. Treasuries prices added slight gains after the data, with the 10-year yield again below its 200-day average and at its lowest in two weeks.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 13/32, with the yield at 2.2068 percent.

Lower yields contributed to record-setting dollar amounts of U.S. corporate note and bond sales this quarter.

With four days left, data from Thomson Reuters unit IFR show $274.5 billion were priced in investment grade deals, eclipsing the previous record for a first quarter of $272.3 billion in 2007 -before the credit crisis.

This is the best quarter ever for high yield deals. At $88 billion, the amount beats the previous record of $85.3 billion set in the last quarter of 2010.

Mar 27, 2012 15:36

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Dollar gains, snapping two day drop versus euro

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar gained against the euro on Tuesday, snapping two straight sessions of losses as data tempered concerns of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

The greenback's rally came a day after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raised expectations that the Fed could yet embark on a third round of quantitative easing.

On Monday, Bernanke said "further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies." He made those comments to the National Association for Business Economics.

Until markets have more clarity on the Fed's plans, though, trading could stay constrained, analysts said.

"From our perspective, people are misinterpreting the Bernanke speech," said Mark McCormick, a G10 currency strategist with Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

"I think people have taken it as sign of quantitative easing coming down the line, but I think that exaggerates the key takeaway," he added, with Bernanke not necessarily signaling more QE.

The euro slid 0.2 percent to $1.3334 in New York on Tuesday.

A U.S. report showed home prices were unchanged in January from December, the first time since July the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index has not declined and a sign that the battered housing market is slowly stabilizing.

A report from industry group The Conference Board showed the index of consumer attitudes eased to 70.2 from an upwardly revised 71.6 the month before, roughly in line with economists' expectations for 70.3.

The details of the report were mixed as consumer expectations fell, but their assessment of their current situation rose to the highest level since September 2008.

"The economy is doing a lot better than many people thought, and the market is going to run with that, but the Fed will not stand around while U.S. yields back up significantly," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London.

"There will be a cat-and-mouse game between the market and Bernanke. I think the dollar will be in a range for some time."

The euro zone's sovereign debt crisis could still weigh on the single currency, as well.

While Germany signaled for the first time on Monday its willingness to increase the resources available for tackling the euro-zone debt crisis, several key events remain this week.

Those include a meeting of euro-zone finance ministers in Copenhagen on Friday and Saturday and Spain's budget presentation on Friday.

The meeting of finance ministers "could result in some near- term volatility," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst with Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington, D.C. "It's hard to push the euro up further from these levels without some catalyst."

YEN STEADIES AFTER DROP

Traders and analysts said moves in U.S. Treasuries would be key for the dollar. If demand for Treasuries gained steam and bond yields fell in the wake of Bernanke's comments, the dollar could face more pressure.

The greenback was up 0.4 percent against the yen at 83.15 yen, though below a recent 11-month high. Against Japan's yen, the single currency rose 0.2 percent to 110.86 yen.

The Japanese currency was seen as vulnerable to more selling, and has been under heavy pressure since Japan announced monetary easing measures last month.

With the fiscal year ending on March 31, which is Saturday, expected repatriation flows have done little to support the yen so far, said Joe Manimbo, a market analyst with Western Union Business Solutions in Washington, D.C.

"That suggests next week the yen could come under pressure, since it didn't benefit from expected month- and year-end flows," he added.

Mar 27, 2012 17:22

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Gold slips 1 percent as dollar strengthens

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold prices slid more than 1 percent on Thursday as a break higher in the dollar and a drop in oil prices pushed gold through key support near the $1,655 an ounce level, prompting further liquidation.

Spot gold was down 0.6 percent at $1,652.84 an ounce at 1508 GMT, off a low as $1,647.29 an ounce. The metal is on track for a third session of losses after a rally early in the week, sparked by Federal Reserve hints that accommodative monetary policy is set to persist, petered out.

"We have a forecast for an average price for the year of $1,450, so we are not surprised that gold prices are struggling to go higher," Nic Brown, head of commodity research at Natixis, said. "We think as time goes on the likelihood is that prices will probably soften further."

Gains in the dollar exerted strong pressure on gold. The euro fell against the U.S. unit as concerns about contagion from the euro zone debt crisis resurfaced ahead of Spain's budget on Friday. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold, which is priced in the U.S. currency. (FRX/)

Oil prices fell nearly $2 a barrel, European shares slipped and safe-haven German bunds inched higher, suggesting little appetite for assets seen as higher risk. A broadly successful sale of Italian bonds did little to soothe worries over the euro zone crisis.(GVD/EUR)

Gold is likely to need significant fresh support from a move in the wider financial markets, as well as a drop in the dollar, to push it to fresh highs, analysts said.

"We have suspected that it would take much more than a pure dollar correction for sustained gains to $1,700 and beyond, especially now that bullion is strongly correlated to the broader equity market, and risk sentiment in general," VTB Capital said in a note.

"It comes as little surprise, with the VIX volatility index - the global risk gauge - rallying to 2.5-week highs, that gold followed other precious metals with the broader market back in risk averse mode."

SUBSTANTIAL SUPPORT

Physical demand for gold among key Asian buyers was mixed.

"In the near-term there is substantial support still coming out of China. Until Chinese investors have a solid alternative to precious metal, it's likely that demand coming out of China will remain very strong," said Natixis' Brown.

But gold demand from India, the world's biggest buyer of the yellow metal, remains muted as jewelers' protests entered their thirteenth day, dealers said.

"If you see a significant decline in Indian demand for gold, that is a major negative for the gold market," Brown said.

U.S. gold futures for June delivery were down $5.30 an ounce at $1,655.20.

Swiss bank UBS cut its 2012 gold price forecast to $1,680 an ounce from $2,050 previously, which it said partly reflects the metal's performance in the first quarter.

"The view that the U.S. economic recovery is looking more sustainable is becoming increasingly accepted," it said. "As acute macro stresses abate, investors are looking at other asset classes and to the growth story once again. Gold is moving off the

centre-stage position it occupied for most of last year."

Nonetheless, the threat of a fresh downturn in the U.S. economy and of further credit stress, as well as ongoing official sector buying, higher oil prices and the low interest rate environment, will still underpin gold, it added.

Silver was down 0.7 percent at $31.78 an ounce. The gold/silver ratio, or the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, rose back towards 52, near a two-month high.

Spot platinum was down 0.3 percent at $1,625.70 an ounce, while palladium was down 0.1 percent at $641.97.

Mar 29, 2012 15:17

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Euro slides versus dollar, yen on European manufacturing

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro slid against the dollar and yen on Monday as weak European manufacturing data prompted investors to compare the outlook for the euro zone with the improving economy.

The euro remained vulnerable to renewed bouts of selling after the regional manufacturing survey, analysts said, as investors took a cautious view of prospects for the global economy even after strong Chinese factory data.

A report on business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector came in above the consensus forecast further contrasting the U.S. against the euro zone.

"PMIs out of Europe are another reminder of the extent economies have gone down," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst with Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington, D.C. "Strong U.S. data this week is likely to see the dollar strengthen on rising yield appeal."

The euro fell 0.3 percent against the dollar to $1.3311, though still within a cent of the recent one-month high of $1.3385, according to Reuters data. Analysts said that peak will provide resistance after the euro has repeatedly failed to breach it.

Traders said negative sentiment towards euro zone assets arose on reports the Bundesbank would not accept the bonds of several countries, including Portugal, as collateral. Germany's central bank later denied the reports.

"There's an increasing risk of a more prolonged recession in Europe and economic fundamentals argue in favor of a further downward adjustment in the euro," said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at BTM-UFJ in London.

YEN GAINS

The low-yielding yen, which tends to fall when risk appetite increases, recouped earlier losses, with the dollar down 0.9 percent at 82.09 yen and the euro down 1.1 percent at 109.26 yen.

"It seems like investors remain cautious with service sector data from China still to come this week and nothing to indicate an imminent policy response from the Chinese to the slowdown in their economy," said Valentin Marinov, head of European G10 currency strategy at Citi in London.

"It's a week ahead of the long weekend with thin liquidity, making investors reluctant to express strong views and which limits the scope for meaningful returns ahead of Easter."

The Japanese currency was undermined by a weaker-than-expected reading of the Tankan survey of sentiment at big Japanese manufacturers, which put the spotlight on whether the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy further as early as next week.

The Australian dollar was up around 0.8 percent for the day at $1.0416, though off a high of $1.0449 touched earlier in the global session.

The currency tends to benefit from any signs of improvement in the Chinese economy due to Australia's strong trade links with the country. But many analysts have recently expressed concerns it is overvalued.

"The Chinese recovery is modest ... We like to sell Aussie on any rally," said George Saravelos, G10 currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in London.

Apr 02, 2012 16:03

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