Tradejuice's Trading Journal

[TradeJuice]

Greece Optimism Running On High

The Euro hit a 2 month high fueled by optimism over Greece before slipping back over the last few hours. According to reports, Greek officials have agreed to all terms except one which will see talks continue later on today.

Most analysts believe that we will see the deal go through later on today, but at this stage, we've heard it all before. So we'll have to wait and see what happens.

If the deal does go through, it would likely offer only a short-term boost to the Euro given the ongoing uncertainties about Greece and the other Euro Zone economies.

News Watch For EURJPY

There are 2 High Impact News Releases scheduled for the Euro currency pair that you should be aware of:

12:45pm GMT - Minimum Bid Rate

01:30pm GMT - ECB Press Conference

Remember that the outcome of the Greek Debt Deal may see an impact on the market once the deal is approved so keep an eye out for that.

EURJPY Analysis

Regular Bearish Divergence is all over my 4 hour chart at the moment and after price made an initial surge upwards, we could see price dip lower should the black, dashed trendline be broken.

At the moment there is a counter trend trade signal forming on my system so I'm looking for a breakout of the trendline or below the 102.200 level to enter a Sell order.

There still is a chance that this signal may fail. If price starts moving upwards and breaks out of the 102.750 level my system would present a Buy re-entry signal.

I'll be keeping an eye on how this develops and be sure to share the outcome with you in my next update. Until then, take care and all the best!

Happy trading!

[TradeJuice]

The Euro has managed to hold on to gains achieved during this week against the Yen and other major currencies after Greece finally agreed to a deal on reforms needed to avoid default.

Widespread reaction to the Greek deal has been muted as investors wonder whether the Greeks will actually meet the demands of the package.

The Euro remains firm against the Japanese Yen, which has weakened on the back of off-shore hedge fund selling.

News Watch For EURJPY

There are no High Impact News Releases scheduled for the Euro or Yen currency pairs today, and apart from any major developments in the Euro Zone, it's all clear until the close of trading today.

EURJPY Analysis

While the market did move up beyond the 102.750 level yesterday, my system did not produce a valid buy re-entry signal.

Regular Bearish Divergence remains present on the 4 hour chart at the moment and price is now getting closer to the black, dashed trendline.

My system currently shows a counter trend signal so I'm looking for a close below this line or the 102.750 level to confirm the signal and enter a Sell order.

So, If I get a close of a candle below the black, dashed trendline over the course of the next couple of hours, it is safe to enter a sell trade.

The 102.200 level would serve as an excellent target. Remember that the market will be closing at the end of the day today, so if you enter any positions, be sure tighten your stops if you are not taken out of the order completely by the close of trading.

That's all for now folks, have a great weekend!

Happy trading!

[TradeJuice]

Greek Austerity Bill Pushes Euro Higher

The Euro rose in early trading on Monday after Greece approved an austerity bill that brings the nation a step closer to securing its much needed bailout.

This move prompted violent street protests in central Athens with black-masked protestors fighting the local riot police outside parliament.

So, what is an Austerity Bill?

Austerity is a policy of deficit-cutting, lowering spending, and a reduction in the amount of benefits and public services provided. Austerity measures are typically taken if there is a threat that government cannot honor its debt liabilities.

Euro zone finance ministers also expect Greece to explain how budget cuts will be achieved before it agrees to the bailout in a meeting on Wednesday. So, watch out for that later on in the week.

Meanwhile, The Bank Of Japan started a two-day policy meeting today and is expected to make its commitment to an inflation target a lot clearer by the end of the meeting.

News Watch For EURJPY

The Japanese Yen Real GDP figures were released a few hours ago, so it's plain sailing until tomorrow where there are least 4 high impact news releases scheduled. More news on that tomorrow.

EURJPY Analysis

On Friday I got a signal to enter a short position, so I went ahead and entered a sell trade once there was a close below the black, dashed trendline. See the chart below:

I entered the sell trade at 102.376 and placed my initial target 40 pips away. I closed half the order when price reached half the profit target and moved my stop loss to breakeven.

With 20 pips in the bag at that stage we were in a free trade, but as you can see, price bounced off the lower bullish channel trend line and we were taken out of the position completely.

I am actually glad that I was taken out of the trade before the market closed on Friday as it helped me to avoided the price gap which occurred when the market open this week.

As it stands, we're currently bullish and waiting for an entry signal to enter the market to the long side. However, we could see one of two scenarios play out today.

Price may surge beyond the 103.300 level and should my system provide a buy signal, I'll be entering to the long side. On the other hand, we may see price fall below the lower bullish channel trendline or the 102.750 level. In this case I'll be looking to my system for a sell signal to enter the market to the short side. I'll keep an eye on how it plays out and give you an update in my next report. All the best!

Happy trading!

Wesley

[TradeJuice]

Euro Advances But Many Hurdles Lie Ahead

The Euro advanced on what many analysts believe to be relief over the Greek parliament vote to approve new austerity measures. Greece is not in the clear just yet.

Euro Zone finance ministers will meet on Wednesday to listen to Greece explain how this year's total budget cuts will be achieved before it agrees to the bailout deal.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly announced further stimulus measures in order to bolster the country's economy on Tuesday which saw the Yen weaken.

News Watch For EURJPY

There were three High Impact news releases for the Japanese Yen today and just one for the Euro which have already been completed so the market has since stabilized.

The main event to watch out for over the next few days will be the Euro Zone meeting on Wednesday.

EURJPY Analysis

I got a valid entry signal for a Sell trade late on yesterday so I entered to the short side and was able to exit with some profit. Take a look at the chart below:

I entered the sell trade at 102.123 and placed my initial target 40 pips away. The was a little bit of slippage but I managed to close half the order when price reached the 101.954 level (approximately half the profit target).

Price was moving pretty quickly at this point so I moved my stop loss to breakeven right away and was effectively in a free trade.

I was taken out at breakeven not long afterwards but I managed to bag at least half the profit.

As it turned out, price moved up strongly so at the moment, while there are no clear signals forming, I'm keeping an eye on the 103.300 area.

We could see price react around this level. As price approaches this area, it may either break through it or bounce off it, so I'll be looking for a signal around this region.

For now though, we'll have to be patient and see how it plays out. All the best!

Happy trading!

[TradeJuice]

Yen Falls Against The Euro

The Bank of Japan boosted its asset buying program yesterday, which led to the Yen weakening against the US Dollar and the Euro.

This impact may be shortlived as continued worries over the Euro Zone crisis means many investors still view the Yen as a safe haven.

Later today, Euro Zone finance ministers will meet to listen to Greece explain how this year's total budget cuts will be achieved before it agrees to the bailout deal.

News Watch For EURJPY

There are no High Impact news events scheduled for the rest of the week for the Euro and Japanese Yen pairs.

Keep an eye out for reaction from the Euro Zone meeting later on today.

EURJPY Analysis

Price went on to reach the 103.300 level so we're looking to see whether it will advance further or fall back down to the south.

Should price continue moving upwards we can target the upper bullish channel trendline. On the other hand, if price reverses and starts to fall, we can target the lower bullish channel trendline or the 102.750 level.

As it stands, this pair remains Bullish, but my system shows no clear signals for a trade in either direction right now.

We'll see how it plays out over the course of the day and I'll be sure to give you an update in my next column.

Take care out there and all the best!

Happy trading!

[TradeJuice]

Euro Zone Officials Consider Greek Bailout Delay

The Euro fell from 2 month highs aginst the Japanese Yen after Euro Zone officials considered ways to delay the second Greece bailout package, while still avoiding default.

Some sources in the European Union went so far as to say the delay may last until after Greek elections in April.

News Watch For EURJPY

There are no High Impact news events scheduled for the rest of the week for the Euro and Yen currencies but be sure to keep an eye on news coming out of the Euro Zone.

EURJPY Analysis

The Bullish channel failed yesterday when price broke out and closed below the lower bullish channel trendline.

Price had stalled, so I drew a black, dashed trend line across the lows and when price broke through the line I got a signal to enter a Sell trade.

I entered a Sell order at the close of the breakout candle and placed my take profit 40 pips away. The target was hit within a few bars so I was taken out of the trade with 40 pips profit.

At the moment, there is no clear direction but we may see price break out below the previous low and move further down so I'll be looking for a sell trade entry in this region.

We'll have to wait and see how it plays out. Take care out there and all the best!

Happy trading!

Wesley Govender

[TradeJuice]

Yen Under Pressure While Euro Remains Resilient

Hi friends, I had to travel for a few days so missed posting my updates here over the last few days. Anyway, I'm back in town so here's my piece for today:

The Japanese Yen dropped to a new 7-month low against the US Dollar, while the Euro remained strong amidst fears of slipping into recession.

Key support levels continue to give way which in turn encourages more Yen selling. As a result, the Euro rose to a 3-month high against the Yen.

News Watch For EURJPY

German Ifo Business Climate data was released earlier today. Data was better than forecast which means more good news for the Euro. There are no further news releases scheduled for the EURJPY pair this week.

EURJPY Analysis

I've been tracking Regular Bearish Divergence on my charts but with the Euro showing some unusual strength, the entry remains elusive. Take a look at the chart below:

You can see that price is hovering around the upper Bullish channel trendline, while the Regular Bearish Divergence pattern remains intact. The breakout of the black, dashed trendline occurred outside my trading hours but we can use this as a trigger for a more conservative entry.

Price has since retreated and went on to form a new High. So, if the Regular Bearish Divergence pattern holds firm, and price breaks out and closes below the low of the breakout candle (red, dashed vertical line), we may enter a sell position.

Potential targets include the 105.700 level and the previous Swing Lows.

For a more aggressive entry, insert a new trendline across the Swing Lows and consider any closes below these lines as potential trigger levels.

We'll have to wait and see how it plays out for now, so be safe out there. All the best!

Happy trading

Wesley