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  1. The euro was struggling to recover from its plunge the previous day in early Asia trading on Friday, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine had hit the common European currency and sent investors scrambling to the safety of the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc. Russia's rouble also tumbled overnight, falling to a record low of 89.986 per dollar, before recovering a little. The euro was last at $1.1196 having touched as low as $1.1106 on Thursday, its lowest since May 2020, plunging from the $1.13045 at which it had finished on Wednesday. Sterling and the risk-friendly Australian dollar also were hammered while the U.S. dollar, in turn, lost ground on the yen and Swiss franc. As a result, the dollar index rose as high as 97.740, its highest since June 2020. It was last at 96.990. Russia, on Thursday, unleashed the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two, prompting tens of thousands of people to flee their homes, as Ukrainian forces fought on multiple fronts. The United States responded with a wave of sanctions impeding Russia's ability to do business in major currencies along with sanctions against banks and state-owned enterprises. Express news reported that "The first order impact is naturally in Russia and Ukraine ... but there is an impact on Asia Pacific bond and foreign exchange markets as well," said Riad Chowdhury APAC head of MarketAxess, a credit trading platform. Chowdhury pointed to a "flight-to-quality type move both in global assets (moving to the dollar and yen) as well as in emerging markets". One dollar was worth 115.47 yen on Friday morning in Asia, after the greenback had tumbled 0.48% on the Japanese currency on Thursday. The dollar was at 0.9241 against the Swiss franc after losing 0.85% the previous day. The pound was at $1.33840 and the Australian dollar was at $0.7153 as both tried to recover from their Thursday pummelling. As well as the direct impact of the war in Ukraine, currency traders were trying to assess the war's impact on monetary policy around the world. Several policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB), even those sometimes seen as hawkish, said the situation in Ukraine could cause the ECB to slow its exit from stimulus measures. Meanwhile investors and some U.S. officials said the war would likely slow but not stop approaching interest rate hikes.
  2. FX - EURO The EURO closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends this month's rally, September's high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing would confirm that a shortterm top has been posted. FX - YEN The YEN closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally, and the midrange close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If it extends this month's rally, August's high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20day moving average would confirm that a shortterm high has been posted. FX - SWISS FRANC The SWISS FRANC closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends last week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 20112012decline crossing is the next downside target. FX - STERLING STERLING closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target.

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