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Fundamentally, the market is highly dynamic. Market movements are driven by volume as well as supply and demand; the cumulative imbalance between supply and demand causes prices to rise or fall. Forex traders examine the factors behind fluctuations in supply and demand using fundamental data and conduct analysis based on technical data. They formulate trading scenarios derived from this market analysis and map out their risk tolerance within those scenarios.

XTI/USD undergoes sharp correction amid hopes for US-Iran talks US crude oil (WTI) has experienced a significant correction over four consecutive sessions. At the close on September 21, the October WTI contract fell approximately 4.5% to $95.78 per barrel, following earlier downward pressure. FXOpen charts show WTI correcting to $90.89 from a high of $96.55. The primary driver of this sharp oil price correction is the easing of the Middle East risk premium. Hopes for US-Iran talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly have raised expectations that oil supply disruptions could diminish. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is improving, serving as the most significant bearish factor at present. However, the conflict has not vanished entirely. Middle East tensions continue to disrupt some export-related production. The EIA projects that global production disruptions due to conflict will average 5.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026; consequently, the market remains exposed to the risk of price spikes should the conflict escalate. US inventories remain relatively tight. The latest EIA data indicates that US commercial crude oil stocks fell by approximately 640,000 barrels for the week ending September 11, though the decline was smaller than market expectations. The API schedule indicates that the report for the week of September 18 is due for release today, September 22, while the official EIA report follows on September 23; thus, WTI volatility is likely to increase tonight and, more significantly, tomorrow. The IEA continues to see bullish risks stemming from supply disruptions; if Gulf supplies remain constrained while global stocks continue to decline, oil prices could face renewed upward pressure. Regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, previous surges in energy prices sparked inflation concerns. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%; high interest rates risk slowing global economic growth, which could limit oil demand. From a technical perspective, XTI/USD remains above the 200-day EMA. Although the short-term bias leans toward a correction, it is premature to classify this as a strong downtrend given the significant geopolitical risks. XTIUSD is expected to trade within the $91–$98 range today, with an extreme scenario of $89–$101. Immediate support lies around 90.00, with the next target at 89.50. Immediate resistance is around 96.00, with the next target near 99.00. This forecast could be wrong.

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