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Fear is an inherent part of human nature. One might attempt to conceal fear by diverting attention to other matters, yet an underlying sense of apprehension often remains in the mind. In forex trading, fear typically stems from market movements that are unfavorable or run counter to a trader's position. This fear can be mitigated by implementing strict risk management and utilizing safe position sizing.

USD/JPY consolidates with a slightly bullish bias Over the past week, price action for the safe-haven USD/JPY pair has remained range-bound between 157.200 and 158.500. This movement has been driven by the continued rise in US Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy. On October 8, USD/JPY formed a short-bodied bearish candle with wicks at both the top and bottom; prices ranged from a low of 157.528 to a high of 158.366, closing at 157.891 on the FXOpen chart. USD strength is underpinned by solid 10-year US Treasury yields. Expectations that Federal Reserve interest rates will remain elevated are prompting capital to flow back into dollar-denominated assets. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34%, while the DXY hovered around 102.4. FOMC minutes also revealed that a majority of members see the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the year. US data releases today are relatively light. Markets will be closely watching the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations. Of greater importance are movements in Treasury yields; if yields rise above 5.35%, USD/JPY could see upward momentum, whereas a decline in yields could open the door for a correction. The BoJ appears inclined toward caution. Following a rate hike to 1.25% at the September meeting, signals from within the BoJ ahead of the late-October meeting suggest reluctance to aggressively raise rates again. Market concerns regarding a slowdown in the pace of BoJ policy tightening are weighing on the Yen. The BoJ has noted that inflationary pressures are broadening, and Governor Ueda has emphasized the importance of keeping inflation near the 2% target. Japanese household spending data due today is also drawing market attention. Consensus forecasts suggest a year-on-year (YoY) figure of around -3.5%, compared to the previous -3.6%. Stronger data could bolster the JPY by reinforcing the belief that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) still has grounds for an interest rate hike. A key factor to watch is the possibility of foreign exchange intervention. With USD/JPY trading in the 158–160 range, the yen is already weak, and the Japanese government has previously affirmed that the principle of coordination with the US regarding FX intervention remains in effect. Should strong comments emerge from Japan's Ministry of Finance or BoJ officials, USD/JPY could drop rapidly, even amidst strong US fundamentals. Remarks or rumors from BoJ officials leading up to the October 29–30 monetary policy meeting could determine the direction of the USD/JPY trend. Technically, USD/JPY is trading below the 200-day EMA with an RSI of 51; chasing buy positions at high levels is less than ideal given the strength of US yields and the dollar, alongside the risks of intervention and a potential hawkish shift by the BoJ. The projected daily range for USD/JPY is 157.500–158.500, with an extreme range of 156.800–159.000. Immediate support lies around 157.550, with the next target at 156.800. Immediate resistance is around 158.500, with the next target at 158.800. This forecast could be wrong.

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