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Today, the following members celebrate their birthdays: Kingsilva --, SM Sarim (32), panozaaallbet (39), freezerchillertruck (32), Desert Safari (32), STC JAPAN (32), Play and Behavior (32), RJ Towing (32), Bossini Usa (32), rudiantoro (33), Let's wish them a happy birthday!

SuperEx Educational Series: Understanding Why Do Crypto Assets Experience Such Distinct Market Cycles #SuperEx #EducationalSeries In the previous article, we discussed how token prices emerge through order books, AMMs, liquidity, and actual market executions. If we expand the observation window from one trade to several months or years, a more interesting pattern appears: crypto markets rarely move quietly in a straight line. The more familiar pattern is collective enthusiasm, rapid expansion, emotional excess, sudden cooling, shrinking liquidity, and finally a period when very few people want to discuss prices in the group chat. More surprisingly, the pattern often affects the entire market rather than one token. Bitcoin may rise first, followed by major assets, then newer sectors such as Layer 1 networks, DeFi, AI, or meme tokens. When the market weakens, the sequence may reverse. This is what we call a crypto market cycle. It is not a mysterious clock that rings every four years, nor is it as simple as “prices must rise after a halving.” A real market cycle emerges when liquidity conditions, asset supply, leverage, narratives, and participant behavior amplify one another. Why Do So Many Crypto Assets Rise and Fall Together Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, DeFi governance tokens, and meme tokens are structurally different assets. Their use cases, supply mechanisms, and sources of value vary significantly. Yet their market prices often move together. An IMF study on the crypto cycle found that a common “crypto factor” explained about 80% of crypto-price variation in its sample. This suggests that short-term token performance is shaped not only by individual projects, but also by market-wide risk appetite. When capital is inexpensive, market liquidity is abundant, and investors are willing to take risk, funds are more likely to move from cash and lower-risk assets into equities, technology assets, and crypto markets. When interest rates rise, dollar liquidity tightens, or risk appetite declines, the process may reverse. Highly volatile assets are often affected early because both their opportunity cost and financing cost increase. This is why the idea that crypto markets are completely separate from traditional finance has become harder to defend. As institutions, funds, and professional traders participate in both markets, their capital and risk budgets increasingly overlap. The macro environment affects how much capital is available. Crypto’s internal market structure determines how large the resulting waves become. When discussing crypto cycles, many people immediately think of Bitcoin halvings. Bitcoin’s block subsidy is reduced every 210,000 blocks, which occurs approximately every four years. According to Bitcoin.org’s halving explanation, the fourth halving in 2024 reduced the subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. A halving reduces the rate at which new bitcoin enters circulation. If miner selling remains stable while demand increases, lower new supply may affect the market balance. A halving is not an automatic price-increase button. If market demand is weak, reduced issuance does not guarantee appreciation. If traders price in the halving well in advance, the event itself may produce less dramatic movement than expected. Bitcoin halvings can influence the broader market because Bitcoin remains one of crypto’s most important liquidity, sentiment, and collateral assets. When Bitcoin rises, the wealth and risk capacity of holders and traders may increase. Some capital may then rotate into Ethereum, large-cap tokens, and smaller, higher-risk assets. A halving is better understood as an event that may change supply expectations and market attention, rather than a switch that independently controls the entire cycle. Why Is the Crypto Market So Prone to Self-Reinforcing Cycles Crypto markets display strong reflexivity. Price changes alter participant behavior, and that behavior then feeds back into prices. When prices begin rising, media coverage expands, social discussion intensifies, search activity increases, new users register, and stablecoins or other capital enter the market. Additional capital pushes prices higher, and higher prices appear to confirm the narrative that the market is improving. What began as a price movement can evolve into user growth, fundraising, token launches, and ecosystem expansion. As project treasury values increase, teams may expand development, marketing, and ecosystem incentives. A bull market therefore does more than raise prices. It can temporarily improve funding conditions across the industry. The same loop can operate in reverse. Falling prices reduce collateral values, weaken project treasuries, reduce user interest, and encourage investors to exit risky assets. As liquidity declines, later sell orders have greater price impact. During a bull market, rising prices are described as growing adoption. During a bear market, similar data may be interpreted as weak demand. Markets sometimes move first and collectively write the explanation afterward. Why Does Leverage Make Market Cycles Faster and More Intense If the market contained only spot trading, price movements would mainly depend on participants trading with their own capital. Modern crypto markets also include perpetual contracts, futures, lending, and margin trading. Investors can obtain larger exposure with less initial capital. During an uptrend, traders establish leveraged long positions. The additional buying pushes prices higher and attracts more trend followers. If short positions are liquidated, the system may need to buy assets to close them, adding further upward pressure. This is commonly known as a short squeeze. During a decline, the opposite occurs. Falling prices reduce long-position margin, forced liquidations create additional sell orders, and those sales may trigger further liquidations. A BIS study on crypto carry argues that the interaction among trend chasing, limited arbitrage capital, and high leverage may help explain the frequency of severe crypto-market crashes. This is why crypto cycles often do not turn gradually. One week the market discusses a “supercycle,” and the next it suddenly rediscovers risk management. Leverage does not create long-term value. It amplifies the existing market direction and brings future buying or selling pressure into the present. Why Are Market Cycles More Extreme for Smaller Tokens Bitcoin and Ethereum have relatively broad holder bases and deeper global liquidity. Many new tokens have limited circulation, concentrated ownership, and shallow markets. When circulating supply is small, a moderate capital inflow may produce a multiple-times increase in displayed market capitalization. The “crypto multiplier” suggests that one dollar of inflow or outflow may change crypto market capitalization by more than one dollar, particularly when a large share of supply is held as an investment rather than actively traded. The reason is straightforward. Market capitalization multiplies circulating supply by the latest price, even though only marginal tokens participated in establishing that price. During rallies, low circulation amplifies perceived scarcity. During declines, shallow order books amplify selling pressure. Future unlocks further change supply conditions. If team, investor, or ecosystem allocations enter circulation without matching demand, the token may experience a decline even when the broader market remains stable. Crypto therefore contains broad industry cycles and smaller token-specific cycles. When the two overlap, price charts become especially dramatic. An Example: How Does a Market Cycle Build Up Step by Step Suppose global liquidity conditions improve and investor risk appetite rises. Some capital first enters Bitcoin. As Bitcoin rises, market attention increases. Holders gain unrealized profits, and some capital rotates into Ethereum and large infrastructure tokens. Later, newer networks, DeFi, AI, and meme projects become more active. Project funding expands, token launches increase, and market makers or LPs become more willing to provide liquidity. Rising prices, user growth, and project financing appear to validate one another, creating a strong positive feedback loop. As the rally continues, leverage increases. Perpetual funding rates rise, and traders depend increasingly on the expectation that someone else will buy later. At some point, macro liquidity tightens or the market encounters a security incident, large unlock, or regulatory shock. New buying demand declines, but potential sellers remain. Falling prices trigger leveraged liquidations, which create additional selling. Market makers reduce exposure, LPs withdraw capital, and market depth deteriorates. The eventual decline may become much larger than the original event alone would justify. The cycle shifts from positive reinforcement to negative reinforcement. A trading platform cannot eliminate bull and bear cycles, nor should it promise that every token will maintain a particular price. What a platform can do is improve liquidity, price references, and risk controls so that normal volatility reflects genuine market activity rather than one abnormal quotation or artificial trading. In spot and Free Market trading, SuperEx connects different liquidity sources through order books, professional market making, and Free Market AMM. Deeper markets can reduce the influence of one transaction on price. For derivatives markets, SuperEx’s published index-price rules use data from multiple major exchanges and include abnormal-price handling to reduce the impact of temporary deviations on one venue. Funding rates help keep perpetual-contract prices connected to spot indexes. But funding and liquidation also remind users that leverage can amplify gains and accelerate losses. SuperEx also monitors abnormal trading behavior and low-liquidity pairs. The purpose of risk control is not to prevent prices from declining, but to preserve orderly trading and more effective price discovery. A mature platform does not tell users that markets are always safe. It makes rules, price sources, and risk boundaries clear when markets become difficult. Conclusion: Crypto Market Cycles Are the Result of Multiple Feedback Loops Reinforcing One Another Crypto assets experience distinct cycles because several feedback loops overlap, not because every project follows the same four-year script. Bitcoin halvings change new supply. Macro liquidity affects capital costs. Narratives attract attention. Rising prices increase risk appetite, and leverage amplifies the movement. When these forces point upward together, the market can experience powerful expansion. When capital flows, expectations, and leverage reverse together, the correction can be equally severe. Halvings are part of the cycle, but not the whole explanation. Price is an expression of the cycle, not its only cause. Rising markets can support real development while temporarily hiding risk. A crypto cycle resembles a gathering that adjusts its own volume. More participants make it louder, and the noise attracts even more people. When capital, sentiment, and leverage leave together, the room can suddenly become quiet enough for everyone to hear their own positions. About SuperEx As the world’s first Web3-powered cryptocurrency exchange, SuperEx remains committed to building the Web3 ecosystem through products and services including SuperEx DAO, SuperEx Web3 Wallet, Super Start, SuperEx P2P, SuperEx Copy Trading, SuperEx Earn, and SuperEx DAO Academy. Today, SuperEx serves over 10 million users, has a social media community of more than 600,000 followers across 166 countries and regions, and supports more than 1,000 cryptocurrencies for spot and futures trading. Click to register SuperEx Click to download the SuperEx APP Click to enter SuperEx CMC Click to enter SuperEx DAO Academy — Space

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Winvest PAID! Payment Received via Bitcoin Withdrawal Amount: $15 USD Date: 23 Sep 2026 08:19:26 Transaction ID: 83b8c7db36365c0018ccebdc958892c634a51c107591d063a92e3e98a1ba2388 Transaction Link: https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/transactions/btc/83b8c7db36365c0018ccebdc958892c634a51c107591d063a92e3e98a1ba2388

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The Canadian dollar faces pressure from US-Canada trade risks. The USDCAD commodity currency pair shows a bullish bias, indicating that the CAD remains under significant pressure relative to the USD, although the pair's upward momentum could stall if oil prices strengthen. On September 23, USDCAD formed a bullish candlestick, extending previous gains. The price currently hovers around 1.41029, with a high of 1.41096 and a low of 1.40566 on the FXOpen chart. The US dollar retains its appeal amidst global geopolitical uncertainty and market expectations for a relatively cautious Fed interest rate policy path. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75%–4.00% range on September 16—the first hike since 2023—whereas the Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady at 2.25% on September 2. An interest rate differential of 1.50–1.75 percentage points between the Fed and the BoC provides support for the USD against the CAD. Canadian inflation remains around 3%, driven primarily by a surge in energy prices, while core inflation holds steady near the 2% target. The USD is gaining support from rising US bond yields, driven by relatively strong US economic data and expectations of a more hawkish Fed policy, making USD-denominated assets relatively more attractive. The CAD faces risk-related pressure stemming from US-Canada trade dynamics. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem stated that new US tariffs could suppress Canadian growth in the fourth quarter to below 1%, down from the previous projection of 1.5%. However, relatively high oil prices provide support for the CAD, given Canada's status as an energy exporter. Macklem also noted that oil prices around the $100 mark could keep Canadian inflation elevated. Today, the market will focus on retail sales data. For the USD, attention is centered on the release of Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales figures, as well as comments from Fed officials. Strong US data could once again drive up US bond yields and support the USD. Technically, USDCAD is trading above the MA50 and shows a bullish bias; the primary trading range is estimated to be between 1.39700 and 1.41200. Immediate support is around 1.40000, with the next target at 1.3960. Immediate resistance is around 1.4100, with the next target at 1.4150. This forecast could be wrong.

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Winvest Paid: 0.00077784 BTC Withdrawal Amount: $66.47 Payment Received via Bitcoin 23 Sep 2026 08:15:44 GMT+8 Transaction ID: [0cdc9ac763853f1ba3242e7971a4014ea92a13c6e9c0dc5cff15b1cb4198f59b] Transaction Link: https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/transactions/btc/0cdc9ac763853f1ba3242e7971a4014ea92a13c6e9c0dc5cff15b1cb4198f59b