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USD/JPY rises after the Fed's interest rate cut decision On Wednesday, October 29th, the USD/JPY pair drew a bullish candle with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 153.061, a low of 151.543, and a close of 152.700. The Fed finally cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected. The market surprised the market, as the USD strengthened against other major currencies, including the Japanese Yen, which rose significantly within an hour. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, rose around 0.43% after the cut. The DXY rose to a high of 99.356 from a low of 98.624 and closed at 99.167. The market had previously predicted that the Fed would cut interest rates, with a 99% chance of a cut, according to the Fedwatch tool, just hours before the release. However, what's more important is not just the cut itself, but the tone of the Fed Chairman's statement, whether it will be dovish or hawkish. The FOMC statement showed that economic activity has been growing at a moderate pace. Job growth slowed this year, and the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with this development. Inflation has been rising since the beginning of the year and remains relatively high. The committee recommends a long-term inflation target of 2%. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high, and the risk of a job decline has increased in recent months. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) currently does not expect major changes in interest rates in the short term. It is expected to maintain the interest rate at 0.50%. In theory, the Japanese yen is quite vulnerable due to the difference in interest rates and long-term expectations. If the BoJ signals a hawkish signal or the market anticipates a Japanese interest rate hike, the JPY could strengthen. Conversely, if the BoJ is very dovish, the JPY is likely to remain weak. Internal government pressure also contributed to the Japanese government's warning that, through its financial authorities, it would monitor currency volatility and potentially intervene if the JPY weakened too rapidly. Considering the fundamentals of both the US and Japan, the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the Bank of Japan's policies and potential intervention by the Japanese government. Currently, the USD remains biased to strengthen, but the risk of a reversal is significant if the BoJ suddenly signals a hawkish stance or Japan intervenes to strengthen the JPY. Today's short-term price range forecast is 151.00-153.00, while the broader forecast is 150.00-154.00. Potential support is around 151.50-150.80. If the JPY strengthens, the price could fall to 150.50-151.00. Resistance is around 152.80-153.30. If momentum is strong or the JPY weakens further, it could rise to 153.25-153.50. Today, traders will focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy and the tone of its monetary policy statement, which may provide subtle clues about Japan's economic outlook. Markets sometimes react quickly to policy changes.

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