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AUD/USD Consolidates Amid "Wait-and-See" Stance At the market open on Monday, the AUD/USD pair showed a significant opening gap, starting at 0.69942 compared to Friday's close of 0.69738, according to FXOpen price charts. The price subsequently rose to a high of 0.70113 before falling to a low of 0.69855. The pair is currently tending to consolidate around the psychological 0.69800–0.70000 range. The market is adopting a "wait-and-see" approach ahead of key data releases scheduled for the middle of the week. Markets are anticipating the release of Australia's second-quarter CPI data, scheduled for Wednesday, July 29. Core inflation is projected to rise to 3.7% year-on-year (YoY) from 3.5%, remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2%–3% target range. High inflation and solid employment data are fueling speculation that the RBA could raise interest rates by 25 basis points—from the current 4.35%—at its upcoming meeting on August 11. These expectations are providing support for the AUD. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is also due this week; US rates currently stand at the 3.50%–3.75% level. Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have reignited concerns regarding global inflation. This has bolstered the US Dollar Index (DXY) and fueled expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance. Traders are now focusing on Australia's CPI release on Wednesday; should the CPI figures come in hotter than expected, the AUD/USD pair could potentially break through the 0.70000 resistance level. As a commodity currency, the AUD benefits from high energy prices and exports; however, the surge in oil prices also strengthens the USD, which acts as a safe-haven asset. Traders are also monitoring global stock market movements to gauge whether "risk-off" or "risk-on" sentiment is prevailing in equity markets. Earnings reports from major corporations and Federal Reserve decisions could trigger volatility in the AUD/USD pair. From a technical perspective, AUD/USD is trading below the 50-day moving average and above the 200-day moving average. The estimated fair price range for AUD/USD is between 0.69450 and 0.70150. Immediate support lies around 0.69700, with the next target at approximately 0.69450. Immediate resistance is around 0.70100, with the next target at approximately 0.70350. This forecast could be wrong.

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