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GBP/USD leans bearish as the USD gains support from Fed rate hike expectations. The GBP/USD major pair displayed bearish momentum on Monday. On the FXOpen chart, the pair formed a bearish candle, recording a low of 1.35059, a high of 1.35593, and a close of 1.35122. The fundamental bias is currently bearish in the short-term intraday timeframe, driven primarily by USD strength resulting from rising Treasury yields and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The Iran-US conflict has once again pushed up oil prices and heightened inflation risks. Higher oil prices are fueling market concerns that US inflation will remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.77%, while the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September hovers between 66% and 68%, providing strong support for the USD. Although the August ISM Manufacturing Index dipped from 55.6 to 54.6, the prices-paid index remained high at 71.1, indicating that while activity has slowed slightly, inflationary pressures remain robust. July JOLTS job openings rose to 7.271 million, even as hiring activity softened. The market continues to view the US labor market as strong enough to allow the Fed to maintain its tight monetary policy. The UK economy is showing some signs of resilience; recent GDP figures indicate growth of 0.3% month-on-month and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann has observed signs of growth and inflation running slightly higher than anticipated, suggesting a potential rate hike before the year ends. However, the UK manufacturing sector is slowing, and mortgage approvals have dropped significantly. The 10-year gilt yield has reached 5.25%—its highest level since 2008—reflecting substantial fiscal pressure. Markets are currently awaiting Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, attempting to determine whether the Fed will indeed raise interest rates this month. Upcoming labor market data could drastically alter these expectations. Other key areas of focus include US Treasury yields, oil prices, US labor data ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, comments from Federal Reserve officials, UK inflation and the Bank of England's stance, and US-Iran geopolitical tensions. From a technical perspective, GBPUSD is currently trading above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA200). The estimated fair price range is around 1.34000–1.37000. Immediate support lies near 1.35000, with the next target around 1.34600. Immediate resistance is near 1.36000, with the next target around 1.36500. This forecast could be wrong.

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