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Date: 26th August 2026. Oman-Iran Talks Pressure Oil Prices, but Many Investors Remain Unpersuaded. Crude oil prices continue to fall for a third day as hopes for the Strait of Hormuz reopening rise. At the same time, economic sanctions placed on Iran are weaker than originally feared, and US inventories rise supporting further downward price movement. Nonetheless, investors continue to remain sceptical over a long-lasting peace deal. For this reason, the possibility of crude oil’s bearish trend losing steam remains. Key factors influencing price volatility are the Core PCE Price Index, GDP, and speeches at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the week. US-Iran Tensions Influencing Oil Markets Iran and Oman have agreed on the outline of a temporary navigation corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, this plan includes a joint mine-clearing and further technical talks on shipping security. However, the Strait has not fully reopened yet, and vessel traffic remains well below normal levels. The development has still reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets, though major risks remain. The US has announced secondary sanctions on Iran and its trading partners. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said restrictions will target individuals, vessels, and companies involved in buying Iranian oil or supporting its nuclear and missile programmes. At the same time, President Trump said no talks with Iran are planned, increasing fears of renewed conflict. Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio, has told European allies that the attacks have ‘stopped for now’. This also follows what most analysts believe: that the Strait will remain partially closed and tensions are likely to rise again. However, traders cannot be certain when tensions will again rise, affecting oil prices. Crude Oil Impact - Core PCE Price Index and Prelim GDP The US Dollar and interest rates can play an important role in the pricing of crude oil. For today’s US data, markets are expecting Core PCE inflation to rise by around 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual rate around 3.2-3.3%. Meanwhile, the Q2 GDP second estimate is expected to be revised to 1.5% For the Dollar, Core PCE is likely to be the more important release for traders. This is because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. A reading above expectations would increase pressure on the Fed to consider higher rates, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the Dollar higher. If the GDP data also rise, the possibility of a rate hike increases substantially. A reading below expectations would reduce rate-hike expectations and could weaken the Dollar. A more expensive Dollar and expectations of an interest rate hike can pressure oil prices, while a weaker Dollar may support crude oil Crude Oil - Technical Analysis HFM - Crude Oil Daily Chart WTI is trading close to $80 after falling sharply from weekly highs, with the short-term technical bias turning bearish. The price has broken below the $82 support area and is trading below its key moving averages, while the MACD remains negative. The RSI is around 34, showing strong selling pressure but also suggesting that the market is getting closer to oversold conditions. Medium-term timeframes are also indicating downward price movement, however, the support level at $78.60 is a risk for sellers. If the price remains below the 200-bar moving average, at $81.25 on the 5-minute timeframe, sell signals may remain active. Key Takeaways: Oil continues to decline as hopes rise for a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US sanctions proving less severe than feared, and higher US inventories also support lower oil prices. Geopolitical risk remains high, as traders expect US-Iran tensions could quickly escalate in the future, potentially limiting further declines. Core PCE and GDP are key upcoming catalysts: stronger US data could support the Dollar and rate-hike expectations, adding pressure on oil, while weaker data could support prices. WTI remains technically bearish near $80, trading below key moving averages, although support around $78.60 may limit further downside. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. 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USDJPY stuck in a range: weak dollar supports, rate outlook weighs The USDJPY pair has fallen to 159.86. The range remains intact, but the yen is recovering some of its previous losses. Technical outlook On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair remains range-bound, although the short-term momentum is shifting in favour of sellers. After another failed attempt to consolidate in the 159.50–159.80 area, the pair declined to 158.96 and approached the middle Bollinger Band. The USDJPY pair remains range-bound but is edging lower within the range. Read more - USDJPY Forecast Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews. Sincerely, The RoboForex Team