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USD/CHF is in a consolidation phase after dropping to 0.82275. Price action for the safe-haven USD/CHF pair indicates a consolidation phase, marked by two days of gains following a sharp decline when the price was rejected at the 0.83823 resistance level. According to FXOpen charts, the October 6 trading session saw USD/CHF form a bullish candle, with a low around 0.82980, a high of 0.83263, and a close near 0.83165. This slightly extended the earlier rebound, which had previously reached a high of 0.83237. Traders are currently focused on shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. US labor market data was notably weak: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) rose by only 29k, far below the expected 90k, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. These figures caused expectations for an October Fed rate hike to drop sharply, although interest rates remain at elevated levels. Additionally, August PCE inflation came in lower than anticipated; the PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month, while Core PCE stood at 3.0% year-over-year. This provides the Fed with room to avoid rushing into further rate hikes. While some Fed officials have stated there is no urgency to raise rates, the central bank still faces significant inflationary pressure driven by rising energy costs. Consequently, the possibility of a rate hike in December remains on the table. The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains robust, supported by the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) decision to maintain interest rates at 0.00% during its September 24 meeting. The SNB also stands ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions. Meanwhile, Swiss inflation has begun to rise—moving from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August and 1.0% in September—driven primarily by energy prices. However, the SNB still views inflation as being within the price stability range and projects average inflation of around 0.7% for 2026. Consequently, the SNB lacks a compelling reason to raise interest rates, yet the CHF benefits from its status as a safe-haven currency. Factors within Europe are proving significant for the CHF; concerns regarding France's debt and fiscal situation are driving investors toward safe-haven assets, including the Swiss Franc. Reuters has reported a sharp appreciation of the CHF against the EUR due to these concerns. Thus, even with Swiss interest rates at 0.0%, safe-haven demand can keep the CHF strong. From a technical perspective, USDCHF is currently trading well above the 200-day EMA, with the RSI at the 64 level. The projected price range for USDCHF is 0.82200–0.83600. Immediate support lies around 0.82900, with the next target at approximately 0.82450. Immediate resistance is around 0.83350, with the next target at approximately 0.83650. This forecast could be wrong.

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